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RUNNING HEAD: Financing for development in Syria 1
Introduction.
Despite the intensity and persistence of the conflict that has virtually devastated every
element and institution of peace, development and human dignity in Syria, there still exists
opportunities for gradual and progressive restoration through more strategic negotiations
and actions that could mobilize domestic as well as incentivize private resources for
sustainable development. Experience has proven that political negotiations for a peace deal
is not feasible, this paper therefore presents an ambitious yet realistic, proposal that
recommends the creation of “economic and humanitarian corridors” selected with utmost
attention to criteria that considers economic potential and capacity to guarantee security.
Financing Syria’s development 2
Financing development in Syria.
Despite the intensity and persistence of the conflict that has virtually devastated
every element and institution of peace, development and human dignity in Syria, there still
exists opportunities for gradual and progressive restoration through more strategic
negotiations and actions that could mobilize domestic as well as incentivize private
resources for sustainable development.
In the last six years,
Syria has witnessed a conflict
that claimed over 250,000
lives, displaced over 11 million
people and left a state of
social, economic,
environmental and
infrastructural ruin (British
Broadcasting Corporation
[BBC], 11 March 2016). Unfortunately, the international community’s intervention have at
best secured feeble political and humanitarian solutions (BBC, 11 March 2016). The media
is therefore riddled almost daily, with depictions of suffering, starvation, murder, torture,
rape, poverty and helplessness, and the world has continued to watch helplessly.
The year 2016 birthed a new vision for sustainable development that seeks
simultaneously to consolidate the gains as well as address the challenges created by the
millennium development goals that came to an end a year earlier (United Nations, 2015).
This vision has also introduced innovative financing concepts and approaches that makes
possible the vision to enlist countries in conflict on the pathway towards economic, social
and environmental development (World Bank Group, n.d.). Currently, Syria’s economy
Financing Syria’s development 3
cannot sustain any form of meaningful development and is predicted to contract by an
average of 3.9% annually from 2016 to 2019 (Business Insider, June 9 2016). The country has
lost income from destruction to infrastructure that support major contributors to its
economy particularly oil (which accounted for 50% of its exports and about 30% of the
government's revenue in 2010), manufacturing and agriculture and now relies mostly on
international donor support to thrive (Business Insider, June 9 2016).
Regardless, the current social, economic and political climate does not make
investment in these sectors attractive as risks outweigh potential returns. The risks are
evident by perennial war and conflict, poor transport infrastructure, destroyed refineries,
weak institutions especially those that govern peace and justice, macroeconomic instability
that accrue from dissatisfaction with a dictatorship government (World Bank Group, 2011;
Business Insider, June 9 2016).
The united nations in collaboration with critical stakeholders need to remain
altruistic as well as channel more systematic, strategic, realistic, and timely political, social,
economic and environmental efforts in the quest to place Syria firmly back on the path of
recovery. Experience has proven that political negotiations for a peace deal is not feasible
between pro and anti-government forces, as each side has remained resolute in their
ideology and conditions for peace (BBC, 11 March 2016). The Islamic state has also
capitalized on this stance to aggravate the situation by colouring it with religious and ethnic
sentiments (BBC, 11 March 2016).
Political negotiations remain inevitable; however, it should focus on creating
humanitarian and economic corridors: in designated locations around the country, identified
based on a consensus criteria. These corridors will be made as secure as possible using
missile defence systems and relevant technology innovations and enforced by a joint peace
keeping force constituted by interested countries irrespective of political interest. Their
Financing Syria’s development 4
locations will be given unrestricted access to humanitarian services and supported to thrive
economically, all to mitigate human migration to surrounding and other countries of the
world currently struggling to manage the influx (BBC, 11 March 2016).
A key criterion for the selection of corridors will be their economic potential which
amongst other things will consider the feasibility of resuscitating associated infrastructure
and ease of export. Early developmental priorities within these corridors, relevant for a
conflict-ridden country will comprise setting up local governance structures and having them
focus on key urban development, agriculture and energy projects (World Bank Group
[WBG], 2016). Beyond this, there will be need to create initiatives that could provide
sustainable funding that support the livelihoods of displaced persons and wean them from
the unpredictability of donor contributions. Such initiatives will include creating and
supporting the growth of local cooperatives and have them become the key thrust of
economic revival.
These are capital intensive projects and will need to be funded through grants and
highly concessional loans which Syria is entitled to as a result of its conflict status.
Multilateral and bilateral financial institutions through which donor support is coordinated
and disbursed retain the credibility to provide the requisite technical and financial support
needed by the Syrian government to mobilize domestic as well as incentivize private
investments as well as tie them to inclusive and sustainability targets (WBG & International
Monetary Fund [IMF], 2015). Private participation makes for more prudent and efficient
management of resources; however, their interest is motivated by risk versus return
considerations. Therefore, multilateral organizations have a responsibility to develop
bankable projects that could restore macroeconomic fortunes and smaller projects to be
undertaken by cooperatives that restore individual fortunes (WBG & IMF, 2015).
Financing Syria’s development 5
Multilateral agents have a responsibility to support the deployment of risk mitigating
instruments to incentive private sector investments. Some of which include insurance;
guarantees; crowd funding; public private partnerships; creating enabling legal and policy
environment; reasonably open trade policies; sound monetary and exchange rate policies;
predictable investment framework and rule of law; clear and consistent regulatory and
administrative processes; support systems that encourage open competition, functional
labour markets, entrepreneurship and innovation; standardization of contracts and
documentation; provide information about the financial, economic, environmental, legal and
technical risks through feasibility studies (WBG & IMF, 2015).
Innovative risk staggering strategies will be useful to pique the interest of a growing
pool of potential financing – institutional sources such pension, insurance and sovereign
wealth funds that have longer term financing capacity suitable for infrastructural
development (Ehlers, 2014). However, like private investors, institutional investors are
looking for a quick return and therefore will prefer to invest at the operational phase of
infrastructural development (Ehlers, 2014). The risk associated with project preparation and
construction could therefore be staggered across other organizations with higher risk
appetites. For instance, project preparation could be funded by venture capital
organizations, multilateral grants and concessional funds as well as non-governmental
organizations – funded from bilateral and philanthropic sources (Ehlers, 2014). The riskiest
phase, which is construction of the project could be resourced through crowd funding using
infrastructure equity and bonds as well as multilateral financing, international remittance
bonds and domestic public resources (Ehlers, 2014).
Eventually, as cooperatives thrive, there will be need to strengthen a tax system that
can audit and track financial flows, ensure prudent public expenditure and curb illicit financial
Financing Syria’s development 6
flows not only to increase domestic fiscal space but also to ensure that every dollar counts
(World Bank Group, 2015).
In conclusion, it should however be noted that the success of this ambitious
intervention is predicated on the collective commitment of major global stakeholders to
ensure that regions of the country delineated as “economic and humanitarian corridors” are
selected with utmost attention to criteria that considers economic potential and ability to
guarantee security.
RUNNING HEAD: Financing for development in Syria 7
References
British broadcasting corporation. (11 March 2016). Syria: The story of the conflict.
Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26116868
Business Insider. (Jun. 9, 2016). Syria's civil war has destroyed its economy 'for years to
come'. Retrieved from http://www.businessinsider.com/syria-economy-destroyed-
2016-6?IR=T
Ehlers, T. (2014). Understanding the challenges for infrastructure finance. Retrieved from
https://d37djvu3ytnwxt.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/849c98bb8aad547b4a46
7deb5c758f7d/asset-
v1:WBGx+F4D01x+1T2017+type@asset+block/BIS_Working_Papers_pg_1-5.pdf
United Nations. (2015). Transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable
development. Retrieved from
https://d37djvu3ytnwxt.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/4236d1aa3a99ec1fd3203
6195ef12e83/asset-v1:WBGx+F4D01x+1T2017+type@asset+block/21252030.pdf
World Bank Group. (n.d.). Financing for Development Post-2015: Better and smarter aid.
Retrieved from
https://d37djvu3ytnwxt.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/8e40136ce606799ae829
2e40b59b70c4/asset-v1:WBGx+F4D01x+1T2017+type@asset+block/WB-
PREM_15-22.pdf
World Bank Group. (2011). Strengthening public financial management in post-conflict
countries: Economic premise. Retrieved from
https://d37djvu3ytnwxt.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/bcd4541154143a0e8dd4
1d72febb25f8/asset-
v1:WBGx+F4D01x+1T2017+type@asset+block/Strengthening_Public_Financial.pdf
Financing Syria’s development 8
World Bank Group and international Monetary Fund. (2015). from billions to trillions:
Transforming development finance post-2015 financing for development: Multilateral
development finance. Retrieved from
file:///C:/Users/s/Desktop/Fin4Dev%20World%20Bank%20OLC/week%204/non%20vi
deo%20resources/B_T_Financing_for_Development_1-5_13-17.pdf
World Bank Group. (2016). 2016 development finance group: Unlocking opportunities in
fragile markets. Retrieved from
https://d37djvu3ytnwxt.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/ac54543a0768ce82ca9e
001331faea74/asset-
v1:WBGx+F4D01x+1T2017+type@asset+block/Unlocking_Opportunities_in_Fragil
e_Market_3-10_pages.pdf

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Financing development in syria

  • 1. RUNNING HEAD: Financing for development in Syria 1 Introduction. Despite the intensity and persistence of the conflict that has virtually devastated every element and institution of peace, development and human dignity in Syria, there still exists opportunities for gradual and progressive restoration through more strategic negotiations and actions that could mobilize domestic as well as incentivize private resources for sustainable development. Experience has proven that political negotiations for a peace deal is not feasible, this paper therefore presents an ambitious yet realistic, proposal that recommends the creation of “economic and humanitarian corridors” selected with utmost attention to criteria that considers economic potential and capacity to guarantee security.
  • 2. Financing Syria’s development 2 Financing development in Syria. Despite the intensity and persistence of the conflict that has virtually devastated every element and institution of peace, development and human dignity in Syria, there still exists opportunities for gradual and progressive restoration through more strategic negotiations and actions that could mobilize domestic as well as incentivize private resources for sustainable development. In the last six years, Syria has witnessed a conflict that claimed over 250,000 lives, displaced over 11 million people and left a state of social, economic, environmental and infrastructural ruin (British Broadcasting Corporation [BBC], 11 March 2016). Unfortunately, the international community’s intervention have at best secured feeble political and humanitarian solutions (BBC, 11 March 2016). The media is therefore riddled almost daily, with depictions of suffering, starvation, murder, torture, rape, poverty and helplessness, and the world has continued to watch helplessly. The year 2016 birthed a new vision for sustainable development that seeks simultaneously to consolidate the gains as well as address the challenges created by the millennium development goals that came to an end a year earlier (United Nations, 2015). This vision has also introduced innovative financing concepts and approaches that makes possible the vision to enlist countries in conflict on the pathway towards economic, social and environmental development (World Bank Group, n.d.). Currently, Syria’s economy
  • 3. Financing Syria’s development 3 cannot sustain any form of meaningful development and is predicted to contract by an average of 3.9% annually from 2016 to 2019 (Business Insider, June 9 2016). The country has lost income from destruction to infrastructure that support major contributors to its economy particularly oil (which accounted for 50% of its exports and about 30% of the government's revenue in 2010), manufacturing and agriculture and now relies mostly on international donor support to thrive (Business Insider, June 9 2016). Regardless, the current social, economic and political climate does not make investment in these sectors attractive as risks outweigh potential returns. The risks are evident by perennial war and conflict, poor transport infrastructure, destroyed refineries, weak institutions especially those that govern peace and justice, macroeconomic instability that accrue from dissatisfaction with a dictatorship government (World Bank Group, 2011; Business Insider, June 9 2016). The united nations in collaboration with critical stakeholders need to remain altruistic as well as channel more systematic, strategic, realistic, and timely political, social, economic and environmental efforts in the quest to place Syria firmly back on the path of recovery. Experience has proven that political negotiations for a peace deal is not feasible between pro and anti-government forces, as each side has remained resolute in their ideology and conditions for peace (BBC, 11 March 2016). The Islamic state has also capitalized on this stance to aggravate the situation by colouring it with religious and ethnic sentiments (BBC, 11 March 2016). Political negotiations remain inevitable; however, it should focus on creating humanitarian and economic corridors: in designated locations around the country, identified based on a consensus criteria. These corridors will be made as secure as possible using missile defence systems and relevant technology innovations and enforced by a joint peace keeping force constituted by interested countries irrespective of political interest. Their
  • 4. Financing Syria’s development 4 locations will be given unrestricted access to humanitarian services and supported to thrive economically, all to mitigate human migration to surrounding and other countries of the world currently struggling to manage the influx (BBC, 11 March 2016). A key criterion for the selection of corridors will be their economic potential which amongst other things will consider the feasibility of resuscitating associated infrastructure and ease of export. Early developmental priorities within these corridors, relevant for a conflict-ridden country will comprise setting up local governance structures and having them focus on key urban development, agriculture and energy projects (World Bank Group [WBG], 2016). Beyond this, there will be need to create initiatives that could provide sustainable funding that support the livelihoods of displaced persons and wean them from the unpredictability of donor contributions. Such initiatives will include creating and supporting the growth of local cooperatives and have them become the key thrust of economic revival. These are capital intensive projects and will need to be funded through grants and highly concessional loans which Syria is entitled to as a result of its conflict status. Multilateral and bilateral financial institutions through which donor support is coordinated and disbursed retain the credibility to provide the requisite technical and financial support needed by the Syrian government to mobilize domestic as well as incentivize private investments as well as tie them to inclusive and sustainability targets (WBG & International Monetary Fund [IMF], 2015). Private participation makes for more prudent and efficient management of resources; however, their interest is motivated by risk versus return considerations. Therefore, multilateral organizations have a responsibility to develop bankable projects that could restore macroeconomic fortunes and smaller projects to be undertaken by cooperatives that restore individual fortunes (WBG & IMF, 2015).
  • 5. Financing Syria’s development 5 Multilateral agents have a responsibility to support the deployment of risk mitigating instruments to incentive private sector investments. Some of which include insurance; guarantees; crowd funding; public private partnerships; creating enabling legal and policy environment; reasonably open trade policies; sound monetary and exchange rate policies; predictable investment framework and rule of law; clear and consistent regulatory and administrative processes; support systems that encourage open competition, functional labour markets, entrepreneurship and innovation; standardization of contracts and documentation; provide information about the financial, economic, environmental, legal and technical risks through feasibility studies (WBG & IMF, 2015). Innovative risk staggering strategies will be useful to pique the interest of a growing pool of potential financing – institutional sources such pension, insurance and sovereign wealth funds that have longer term financing capacity suitable for infrastructural development (Ehlers, 2014). However, like private investors, institutional investors are looking for a quick return and therefore will prefer to invest at the operational phase of infrastructural development (Ehlers, 2014). The risk associated with project preparation and construction could therefore be staggered across other organizations with higher risk appetites. For instance, project preparation could be funded by venture capital organizations, multilateral grants and concessional funds as well as non-governmental organizations – funded from bilateral and philanthropic sources (Ehlers, 2014). The riskiest phase, which is construction of the project could be resourced through crowd funding using infrastructure equity and bonds as well as multilateral financing, international remittance bonds and domestic public resources (Ehlers, 2014). Eventually, as cooperatives thrive, there will be need to strengthen a tax system that can audit and track financial flows, ensure prudent public expenditure and curb illicit financial
  • 6. Financing Syria’s development 6 flows not only to increase domestic fiscal space but also to ensure that every dollar counts (World Bank Group, 2015). In conclusion, it should however be noted that the success of this ambitious intervention is predicated on the collective commitment of major global stakeholders to ensure that regions of the country delineated as “economic and humanitarian corridors” are selected with utmost attention to criteria that considers economic potential and ability to guarantee security.
  • 7. RUNNING HEAD: Financing for development in Syria 7 References British broadcasting corporation. (11 March 2016). Syria: The story of the conflict. Retrieved from http://www.bbc.com/news/world-middle-east-26116868 Business Insider. (Jun. 9, 2016). Syria's civil war has destroyed its economy 'for years to come'. Retrieved from http://www.businessinsider.com/syria-economy-destroyed- 2016-6?IR=T Ehlers, T. (2014). Understanding the challenges for infrastructure finance. Retrieved from https://d37djvu3ytnwxt.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/849c98bb8aad547b4a46 7deb5c758f7d/asset- v1:WBGx+F4D01x+1T2017+type@asset+block/BIS_Working_Papers_pg_1-5.pdf United Nations. (2015). Transforming our world: The 2030 agenda for sustainable development. Retrieved from https://d37djvu3ytnwxt.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/4236d1aa3a99ec1fd3203 6195ef12e83/asset-v1:WBGx+F4D01x+1T2017+type@asset+block/21252030.pdf World Bank Group. (n.d.). Financing for Development Post-2015: Better and smarter aid. Retrieved from https://d37djvu3ytnwxt.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/8e40136ce606799ae829 2e40b59b70c4/asset-v1:WBGx+F4D01x+1T2017+type@asset+block/WB- PREM_15-22.pdf World Bank Group. (2011). Strengthening public financial management in post-conflict countries: Economic premise. Retrieved from https://d37djvu3ytnwxt.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/bcd4541154143a0e8dd4 1d72febb25f8/asset- v1:WBGx+F4D01x+1T2017+type@asset+block/Strengthening_Public_Financial.pdf
  • 8. Financing Syria’s development 8 World Bank Group and international Monetary Fund. (2015). from billions to trillions: Transforming development finance post-2015 financing for development: Multilateral development finance. Retrieved from file:///C:/Users/s/Desktop/Fin4Dev%20World%20Bank%20OLC/week%204/non%20vi deo%20resources/B_T_Financing_for_Development_1-5_13-17.pdf World Bank Group. (2016). 2016 development finance group: Unlocking opportunities in fragile markets. Retrieved from https://d37djvu3ytnwxt.cloudfront.net/assets/courseware/v1/ac54543a0768ce82ca9e 001331faea74/asset- v1:WBGx+F4D01x+1T2017+type@asset+block/Unlocking_Opportunities_in_Fragil e_Market_3-10_pages.pdf