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Kharif Crop Update

India is an agrarian country with more than 60% of the population depending on agriculture for their
livelihood. The country produces innumerable crops ranging from medicinal to cereal crops. These
commodities are used for various purposes from human consumption to industries to animal feed. The crops
are produced under irrigated, partially-irrigated and rain-fed conditions. The crops are broadly divided into
three categories, namely, kharif, rabi and summer crops. The kharif season starts from June and ends in
September. The rabi season is during October to February and the summer season is between March and
May.
Kharif crops are grown in both irrigated and rain-fed conditions. The season begins from the onset of the
south-west monsoon and ends in September. The rabi season starts with the onset of north-east monsoon in
October. Many crops are cultivated in both kharif and rabi seasons. The agriculture crops produced in India
are seasonal in nature and highly dependant on these two monsoons. The rains in these two monsoon seasons
determine the sowing area and yield of the crops, including irrigated crops. The plantation crops also depend
on monsoons as a source of rains and climatic conditions.
Among major agriculture crops, the kharif season crops have the largest share and major food items like
cereals, pulses, oilseeds and spices are cultivated in this season. Most of the cereals, except wheat, the largest
cereal crop, are produced in the kharif season. The kharif crops constitute about 53% of total cereals
production. In case of pulses, kharif crops have a marginally low share of 43%. The largest pulse crop, chana,
is produced in the rabi season. Most of the oilseeds are cultivated in the kharif season under rain-fed
conditions, and nearly 70% of the oil seed crops are cultivated in this season. Of the major agriculture crops
produced in India, about 54% of the output comes in the kharif season and the remaining 46% in the rabi
season. Apart from grains, oilseeds and pulses, many other crops like cotton, sugarcane and jute are also
cultivated in the kharif season. The plantation crops like coffee, pepper, cardamom are also harvested in the
kharif season. The largest rabi crops are wheat and chana.
                           Figure 1: Area comparison of major kharif and rabi crops (2007‐08) 
          Area in million hectares 
                                          Kharif crops     % of total       Rabi crops      % total     Total crops
          Cereals                                114.5            53               101          47          215.56
          Pulses                                  6.45            43              8.55          57            15.11
          Total food grains                    120.96             52             109.7          48          230.67
          Oils seeds                             19.84            69              8.98          31            28.83
          Total crops                          140.80             54           118.68           46          259.50
     Source: Ministry of Agriculture. Note: Only major groups of kharif crops have been taken for comparison. However, there
     are many other crops that cultivated in the kharif season which do not come under these groups.

Southwest monsoon in 2008
The southwest monsoon set over Kerala on May 31st, almost according to schedule. However, it advanced
rapidly and covered most of the country within two weeks. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD)
had forecasted southwest monsoon for June – September 2008 at 99% of Long Period Average (LPA). The
monsoon covered extreme northwest parts on June 16th, almost two weeks ahead of the normal date. The
country received good rains during the first one month of the monsoon, recording 121% LPA during June 1-
29th. Although the overall monsoon was good during the first month, the distribution of rain was not good
enough. The southern and central states received deficient rains, where northwestern and eastern states
received excess rains. The sowing of most of the kharif crops started in June as per schedule. These kharif
crops were cultivated mostly in southern and central states, where there was insufficient rainfall during the
early sowing period. The sowing of kharif crops lagged for the first month and recorded below normal area.
However, sowing picked up slowly by the end of June. The kharif crops were badly affected in July due to
lack of rains, especially in Maharashtra and Gujarat. Crops like cotton, pulses and sugarcane got affected and
concerns of huge crop loss increased during this period.
Sowing progress
Among the major kharif crops, sowing of oilseeds has increased significantly this season. The oil seed crops’
sowing area recorded 16.87 million hectares as on August 22nd, an increase of 0.71% from the same period
last year. However, a major increase in oilseed area is in soybean. The area under other oilseeds is lagging this
year. Soybean is mainly cultivated in Madhya Pradesh, which had received very good rains throughout the
season. However, other major oilseed producers like Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat have received
scanty rainfall.
The oilseeds sowing area has increased by 6.17% from the normal sown area. The sowing area of rice has also
increased by nearly 7%, recording 32.46 million hectares. The worst-hit crops are pulses and most of them
have recorded a decline of 15-20% as per recent sowing data. The overall sowing area of pulses has declined
by 15.33% compared to last year and 12% compared to the normal area.
Apart from weather conditions, commodity prices played a major role in the sowing of kharif crops. The
prices of oilseeds increased 2-3 times in the last year due to domestic shortages and firm global markets. The
oilseed prices closely follow global prices as India imports huge quantity of oils. The oilseeds had seen a bull
run during 2007-08 and made a record-high level in both domestic and global markets. This higher price of
oil seeds motivated the farmers to grow more oilseeds than any other commodities.


Kharif sowing update as on 22nd August

                    8/22/200      8/22/200           % change from last       Norma               % change from
Crop                        8             7                        year            l                    Normal
Rice                    32.46         30.36                        6.94         39.1                      -16.97
Maize                    6.66          7.18                       -7.16         6.37                        4.62
Coarse
cereals                  18.41         20.40                         -9.79      22.65                        -18.74
Cotton                    8.59          9.07                         -5.25       8.37                          2.64
Sugarcane                 4.41          5.30                        -16.66       4.14                          6.59
Groundnut                 4.95          5.08                         -2.42       5.35                         -7.40
Soybean                   9.41          8.68                          8.38       7.25                         29.82
Sunflower                 0.41          0.68                        -39.82       0.76                        -45.92
Sesamum                   1.32          1.45                         -9.35       1.44                         -8.47
Castor                    0.58          0.64                         -9.78        0.7                        -17.00
Total oilseeds           16.87         16.75                          0.71      15.89                          6.17
Pulses                    9.56         11.29                        -15.33      10.87                        -12.09
Arhar                     3.15          3.70                        -15.02       3.46                         -9.08
Urad                      1.96          2.50                        -21.62       2.53                        -22.61
Moong                     2.29          3.03                        -24.46       2.61                        -12.22
Others                    2.16          2.05                          5.36       2.26                         -4.38
Source: Agriculture Department.

In regard to pulses, the prices have almost stabilized in the last year after a two-year rally. The lack of rains in
pulses-growing regions, especially Maharashtra, northern Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, had affected sowing
activities. Although prices of cotton touched record levels of Rs29,000-30,000 per candy, the unfavorable
weather conditions in Maharashtra and Gujarat affected the early sown crop. Huge cotton crop area has been
affected in July due to lack of rains.
Conclusion
The sowing of kharif crops is almost completed and the total sown area of all crops, except oilseeds, is lagging
behind. These crops require another 1-2 spells of rains before harvest time in October. The output of many
crops like pulses, rice, sugarcane and castor seed may decline this year, thus having a major effect on supply.
India is the largest exporter of cotton, and forecast of lower output may slow down exports in this year. The
country may continue to face shortage of pulses and has to depend on imports for domestic requirements.
The prices of edible oils may decline during the arrival season due to higher crop sowing, but would largely
depend on global trend in prices.




Disclaimer 
The report contains the opinions of the author that are not to be construed as investment advice. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy, 
and its affiliates, cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the 
opinions  expressed  above.  The  above‐mentioned  opinions  are  based  on  the  information  which  is  believed  to  be  accurate  and  no  assurance  can  be 
given for the accuracy of this information. There is risk of loss in trading in derivatives. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its 
affiliates cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading.  
 
Commodity derivatives trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of the underlying may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose their entire 
original investment. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication 
by,  or  from,  Karvy  Comtrade  that  you  will  profit  or  that  losses  can,  or  will  be,  limited  in  any  manner  whatsoever.  Past  results  are  no  indication  of 
future performance. The information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be 
reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted. 
We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management, or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purposes 
and not to be construed as investment advice. 
 
For a detailed disclaimer please go to following URLs: 
http://www.karvycomtrade.com/disclaimer.asp  
http://www.karvycomtrade.com/riskDisclaimer.asp  

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Kharif cropuupdate06102008

  • 1. Kharif Crop Update India is an agrarian country with more than 60% of the population depending on agriculture for their livelihood. The country produces innumerable crops ranging from medicinal to cereal crops. These commodities are used for various purposes from human consumption to industries to animal feed. The crops are produced under irrigated, partially-irrigated and rain-fed conditions. The crops are broadly divided into three categories, namely, kharif, rabi and summer crops. The kharif season starts from June and ends in September. The rabi season is during October to February and the summer season is between March and May. Kharif crops are grown in both irrigated and rain-fed conditions. The season begins from the onset of the south-west monsoon and ends in September. The rabi season starts with the onset of north-east monsoon in October. Many crops are cultivated in both kharif and rabi seasons. The agriculture crops produced in India are seasonal in nature and highly dependant on these two monsoons. The rains in these two monsoon seasons determine the sowing area and yield of the crops, including irrigated crops. The plantation crops also depend on monsoons as a source of rains and climatic conditions. Among major agriculture crops, the kharif season crops have the largest share and major food items like cereals, pulses, oilseeds and spices are cultivated in this season. Most of the cereals, except wheat, the largest cereal crop, are produced in the kharif season. The kharif crops constitute about 53% of total cereals production. In case of pulses, kharif crops have a marginally low share of 43%. The largest pulse crop, chana, is produced in the rabi season. Most of the oilseeds are cultivated in the kharif season under rain-fed conditions, and nearly 70% of the oil seed crops are cultivated in this season. Of the major agriculture crops produced in India, about 54% of the output comes in the kharif season and the remaining 46% in the rabi season. Apart from grains, oilseeds and pulses, many other crops like cotton, sugarcane and jute are also cultivated in the kharif season. The plantation crops like coffee, pepper, cardamom are also harvested in the kharif season. The largest rabi crops are wheat and chana. Figure 1: Area comparison of major kharif and rabi crops (2007‐08)            Area in million hectares    Kharif crops % of total  Rabi crops % total   Total crops Cereals  114.5 53 101 47  215.56 Pulses  6.45 43 8.55 57  15.11 Total food grains  120.96 52 109.7 48  230.67 Oils seeds  19.84 69 8.98 31  28.83 Total crops  140.80 54 118.68 46  259.50 Source: Ministry of Agriculture. Note: Only major groups of kharif crops have been taken for comparison. However, there are many other crops that cultivated in the kharif season which do not come under these groups. Southwest monsoon in 2008 The southwest monsoon set over Kerala on May 31st, almost according to schedule. However, it advanced rapidly and covered most of the country within two weeks. The Indian Meteorological Department (IMD) had forecasted southwest monsoon for June – September 2008 at 99% of Long Period Average (LPA). The monsoon covered extreme northwest parts on June 16th, almost two weeks ahead of the normal date. The country received good rains during the first one month of the monsoon, recording 121% LPA during June 1- 29th. Although the overall monsoon was good during the first month, the distribution of rain was not good enough. The southern and central states received deficient rains, where northwestern and eastern states received excess rains. The sowing of most of the kharif crops started in June as per schedule. These kharif crops were cultivated mostly in southern and central states, where there was insufficient rainfall during the early sowing period. The sowing of kharif crops lagged for the first month and recorded below normal area.
  • 2. However, sowing picked up slowly by the end of June. The kharif crops were badly affected in July due to lack of rains, especially in Maharashtra and Gujarat. Crops like cotton, pulses and sugarcane got affected and concerns of huge crop loss increased during this period. Sowing progress Among the major kharif crops, sowing of oilseeds has increased significantly this season. The oil seed crops’ sowing area recorded 16.87 million hectares as on August 22nd, an increase of 0.71% from the same period last year. However, a major increase in oilseed area is in soybean. The area under other oilseeds is lagging this year. Soybean is mainly cultivated in Madhya Pradesh, which had received very good rains throughout the season. However, other major oilseed producers like Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra and Gujarat have received scanty rainfall. The oilseeds sowing area has increased by 6.17% from the normal sown area. The sowing area of rice has also increased by nearly 7%, recording 32.46 million hectares. The worst-hit crops are pulses and most of them have recorded a decline of 15-20% as per recent sowing data. The overall sowing area of pulses has declined by 15.33% compared to last year and 12% compared to the normal area. Apart from weather conditions, commodity prices played a major role in the sowing of kharif crops. The prices of oilseeds increased 2-3 times in the last year due to domestic shortages and firm global markets. The oilseed prices closely follow global prices as India imports huge quantity of oils. The oilseeds had seen a bull run during 2007-08 and made a record-high level in both domestic and global markets. This higher price of oil seeds motivated the farmers to grow more oilseeds than any other commodities. Kharif sowing update as on 22nd August 8/22/200 8/22/200 % change from last Norma % change from Crop 8 7 year l Normal Rice 32.46 30.36 6.94 39.1 -16.97 Maize 6.66 7.18 -7.16 6.37 4.62 Coarse cereals 18.41 20.40 -9.79 22.65 -18.74 Cotton 8.59 9.07 -5.25 8.37 2.64 Sugarcane 4.41 5.30 -16.66 4.14 6.59 Groundnut 4.95 5.08 -2.42 5.35 -7.40 Soybean 9.41 8.68 8.38 7.25 29.82 Sunflower 0.41 0.68 -39.82 0.76 -45.92 Sesamum 1.32 1.45 -9.35 1.44 -8.47 Castor 0.58 0.64 -9.78 0.7 -17.00 Total oilseeds 16.87 16.75 0.71 15.89 6.17 Pulses 9.56 11.29 -15.33 10.87 -12.09 Arhar 3.15 3.70 -15.02 3.46 -9.08 Urad 1.96 2.50 -21.62 2.53 -22.61 Moong 2.29 3.03 -24.46 2.61 -12.22 Others 2.16 2.05 5.36 2.26 -4.38 Source: Agriculture Department. In regard to pulses, the prices have almost stabilized in the last year after a two-year rally. The lack of rains in pulses-growing regions, especially Maharashtra, northern Andhra Pradesh and Karnataka, had affected sowing
  • 3. activities. Although prices of cotton touched record levels of Rs29,000-30,000 per candy, the unfavorable weather conditions in Maharashtra and Gujarat affected the early sown crop. Huge cotton crop area has been affected in July due to lack of rains. Conclusion The sowing of kharif crops is almost completed and the total sown area of all crops, except oilseeds, is lagging behind. These crops require another 1-2 spells of rains before harvest time in October. The output of many crops like pulses, rice, sugarcane and castor seed may decline this year, thus having a major effect on supply. India is the largest exporter of cotton, and forecast of lower output may slow down exports in this year. The country may continue to face shortage of pulses and has to depend on imports for domestic requirements. The prices of edible oils may decline during the arrival season due to higher crop sowing, but would largely depend on global trend in prices. Disclaimer  The report contains the opinions of the author that are not to be construed as investment advice. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy,  and its affiliates, cannot be held responsible for the accuracy of the information presented herein or for the results of the positions taken based on the  opinions  expressed  above.  The  above‐mentioned  opinions  are  based  on  the  information  which  is  believed  to  be  accurate  and  no  assurance  can  be  given for the accuracy of this information. There is risk of loss in trading in derivatives. The author, directors and other employees of Karvy and its  affiliates cannot be held responsible for any losses in trading.     Commodity derivatives trading involve substantial risk. The valuation of the underlying may fluctuate, and as a result, clients may lose their entire  original investment. In no event should the content of this research report be construed as an express or an implied promise, guarantee or implication  by,  or  from,  Karvy  Comtrade  that  you  will  profit  or  that  losses  can,  or  will  be,  limited  in  any  manner  whatsoever.  Past  results  are  no  indication  of  future performance. The information provided in this report is intended solely for informative purposes and is obtained from sources believed to be  reliable. Information is in no way guaranteed. No guarantee of any kind is implied or possible where projections of future conditions are attempted.  We do not offer any sort of portfolio advisory, portfolio management, or investment advisory services. The reports are only for information purposes  and not to be construed as investment advice.    For a detailed disclaimer please go to following URLs:  http://www.karvycomtrade.com/disclaimer.asp   http://www.karvycomtrade.com/riskDisclaimer.asp