SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 4
Download to read offline
MLP Association Conference Highlights
Annual conference held his past week.
William's discloses that merger synergies have disappeared even if higher
energy prices return.
NGSA forecasts electric demand for natural gas to break records.
The benchmark index advanced 2.90% while Crude fell 1.4% for the week
after Baker Hughes reported the rig count increased by 4, perhaps as a
result of higher prices. The Master Limited Partnership Association
(NYSEARCA:MLPA) held their annual investor conference in Orlando, where
attendance appeared 15% lighter than previous years, yet well attended
by Investment Bankers, Legal and Tax Advisors, and Institutional investors.
The tone of the conference was certainly focused on risk management and
adjusting to uncertain volume expansion as a result of weak prices and still
questionable capital market access and investor interest. While energy
prices are on the rebound, the pain and suffering inflicted on individual
investors who owned upstream units, frac sand units and even some
midstream units, will have an enduring impact towards enticing new capital
and investors to the asset class. Although the mood was more upbeat from
last year, the benchmark index has lost 30% since last year's conference,
while gaining 7.14% since the beginning of the year. At the September
midpoint between the two conferences. In our view, MLP investor seek
stability where distribution cuts are not a quarterly concern and investment
goals are aligned with steady income rather than highly leveraged 15-20%
annual total returns. At the moment, risk headlines still dominate the sector
which will not subside until a few situations play out, including the Plains
All American plan for simplification and of course the Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde
Merger between Energy Transfer and Williams, which is affecting 3 of the
top 6 MLP units by market capitalization. The industry is in need of some
self-help along with more favorable market conditions to reposition the MLP
structure and attract new investors. Latham and Watkin's recognized the
need for change with their Make MLPS Great Again hats, although the
conference was attended by some participants who conceived, structured
and sold many of the units which have caused investor damage and stained
the MLP structure. Great slogan and a sought after item in Orlando, so
props to the marketing team.
With over 66 units participating, including several which have suspended
distributions, the Conference provided an opportunity to consolidate
Management feedback on several themes which have been the source of
investor speculation:
How Will the MLP Model Evolve: While some have suggested the MLP
model will no longer be a viable structure to attract capital, the conference
participants and audience offered a constructive framework to evolve the
model to reduce the level of risk, which had increased as a result of the
shale boom buildout over the past three years. Higher DCF Coverage, lower
leverage, IDR rebates and further asset development by Sponsors were a
few of the suggestions noted by a panel of fund sponsors. Of course, these
suggestions will come at the expense of current distributions for some
units, and lower growth for others. It is worth noting that as of Q1, only 4
units have maintained or increased both their per unit DCF coverage and
Cash Flow from Operations year over year.
Midstream Contract Renegotiation's Inspired by Sabine Ruling:
Surprisingly, we did not hear much concern on this topic as most midstream
units focused instead on counter-party credits and their relative health. As
we have been reporting in our Weekly Bankruptcy Watch, forward MVC
cash flow exposure from Chapter 11 filings has been rather insignificant, as
most midstream units have protected themselves from receivables
exposure by modifying payment and credit terms prior to filings. While
there are certainly weaker suppliers using the Sabine judgment to pressure
their midstream suppliers, the exposure from such situations appears to be
baked into forward guidance, given the visibility of producer duress over
the past year.
Slower Growth and Consolidation: Midstream capacity has clearly
exceeded demand, limiting the interest and need for new infrastructure.
Excess capacity was noted by several speakers (not just Plains All American
(NYSE:PAA), raising suggestions that desperate operators may start tariff
wars to market underutilized capacity. While MLP's have been building out
new assets, it has been less transparent to understand how existing assets
have been performing. As further organic projects either take a pause, or
enter a hiatus, some units will not be able to offset weakening cash flows
from certain assets, and will need to consolidate to achieve more diversified
and synergistic mix of business.
The Role of Incentive Distribution Rights: While those who have IDR's
defended their role, some investors voiced concern that IDR's were not
conceived to have uncapped eternal life, particularly when the GP is no
longer incubating and financing the development of new assets. The circle
of life for public GPs and IDR's will be quite different if the need for new
projects continues to decline.
Volume Reductions Impacting Midstream Cash Flows: Each month,
US production and rig counts have been in decline, but the reductions have
not yet been evident in the quarterly cash flows for many units. Capex
reduction must also lead to lower volumes, although production efficiencies
may reduce and delay the impact. Most management teams do expect a
sharp decline in volumes over the back half of the year.
In other news, the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) released their
16th annual Summer Outlook assessment, which should give midstream
investors some confidence that power generation trends are clearly
impacting demand. Below is an excerpt from their release
Jekyll and Hyde Merger
Friday seems to be the preferred date for disclosures related to one of the
most bizarre mergers investors have likely experienced. Williams
(NYSE:WMB) started the day with the new disclosure below related to their
merger with Energy Transfer (NYSE:ETE), which says that irrespective of
whether energy prices return to levels prevailing when the merger was
announced in September 2015, the synergy number is still only 25% of
what was used to justify and sell the deal initially. Apart from what this
says about the methods and motivations related to the original number, it
is shocking that both parties agreed to such a statement, without any
further explanation.
And if the above disclosure was not enough to motivate Williams
shareholders to vote No, they also added the below paragraph, essentially
putting shareholders on notice that the new securities will likely fall in value
after the distributions are cut
Later in the day, Williams released a revised Schedule A, which updated
the Summary Deck outlining the merger. It is a lengthy effort to summarize
how this deck has transformed since the Merger was announced on
September 28th, 2015, but the changes are substantial with each party
seeking a different outcome. It must have been a painful process to reach
consensus between companies on how to portray a merger which can no
longer be justified, but we look forward to hearing the real story once the
agreement is completed one way or the other.
Fund Flows and Lower Volumes
A favorable trend of increasing fund flows picked up pace this pace week
as$189MM of new capital flowed into MLP packaged products, with over
$1B added over the past twelve months. Total Fund AUM is roughly $55B,
or 9.5% of the total market cap of the MLPData universe
While flows have been increasing moderately, unit turnover has been
waning, suggesting that existing investors believe higher energy prices
have reduced some of the fundamental risks associated with lower
production volumes.

More Related Content

Recently uploaded

VIP Call Girl in Mira Road 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday ...
VIP Call Girl in Mira Road 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday ...VIP Call Girl in Mira Road 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday ...
VIP Call Girl in Mira Road 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday ...
dipikadinghjn ( Why You Choose Us? ) Escorts
 
Call Girls Banaswadi Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service Ban...
Call Girls Banaswadi Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service Ban...Call Girls Banaswadi Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service Ban...
Call Girls Banaswadi Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service Ban...
amitlee9823
 
VIP Kalyan Call Girls 🌐 9920725232 🌐 Make Your Dreams Come True With Mumbai E...
VIP Kalyan Call Girls 🌐 9920725232 🌐 Make Your Dreams Come True With Mumbai E...VIP Kalyan Call Girls 🌐 9920725232 🌐 Make Your Dreams Come True With Mumbai E...
VIP Kalyan Call Girls 🌐 9920725232 🌐 Make Your Dreams Come True With Mumbai E...
roshnidevijkn ( Why You Choose Us? ) Escorts
 
CBD Belapur Expensive Housewife Call Girls Number-📞📞9833754194 No 1 Vipp HIgh...
CBD Belapur Expensive Housewife Call Girls Number-📞📞9833754194 No 1 Vipp HIgh...CBD Belapur Expensive Housewife Call Girls Number-📞📞9833754194 No 1 Vipp HIgh...
CBD Belapur Expensive Housewife Call Girls Number-📞📞9833754194 No 1 Vipp HIgh...
priyasharma62062
 
VIP Independent Call Girls in Andheri 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Escorts...
VIP Independent Call Girls in Andheri 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Escorts...VIP Independent Call Girls in Andheri 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Escorts...
VIP Independent Call Girls in Andheri 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Escorts...
dipikadinghjn ( Why You Choose Us? ) Escorts
 
VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...
VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...
VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...
dipikadinghjn ( Why You Choose Us? ) Escorts
 
➥🔝 7737669865 🔝▻ Malda Call-girls in Women Seeking Men 🔝Malda🔝 Escorts Ser...
➥🔝 7737669865 🔝▻ Malda Call-girls in Women Seeking Men  🔝Malda🔝   Escorts Ser...➥🔝 7737669865 🔝▻ Malda Call-girls in Women Seeking Men  🔝Malda🔝   Escorts Ser...
➥🔝 7737669865 🔝▻ Malda Call-girls in Women Seeking Men 🔝Malda🔝 Escorts Ser...
amitlee9823
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Call Girls Service Pune ₹7.5k Pick Up & Drop With Cash Payment 9352852248 Cal...
Call Girls Service Pune ₹7.5k Pick Up & Drop With Cash Payment 9352852248 Cal...Call Girls Service Pune ₹7.5k Pick Up & Drop With Cash Payment 9352852248 Cal...
Call Girls Service Pune ₹7.5k Pick Up & Drop With Cash Payment 9352852248 Cal...
 
VIP Call Girl in Mira Road 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday ...
VIP Call Girl in Mira Road 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday ...VIP Call Girl in Mira Road 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday ...
VIP Call Girl in Mira Road 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday ...
 
Call Girls Banaswadi Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service Ban...
Call Girls Banaswadi Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service Ban...Call Girls Banaswadi Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service Ban...
Call Girls Banaswadi Just Call 👗 7737669865 👗 Top Class Call Girl Service Ban...
 
Webinar on E-Invoicing for Fintech Belgium
Webinar on E-Invoicing for Fintech BelgiumWebinar on E-Invoicing for Fintech Belgium
Webinar on E-Invoicing for Fintech Belgium
 
VIP Kalyan Call Girls 🌐 9920725232 🌐 Make Your Dreams Come True With Mumbai E...
VIP Kalyan Call Girls 🌐 9920725232 🌐 Make Your Dreams Come True With Mumbai E...VIP Kalyan Call Girls 🌐 9920725232 🌐 Make Your Dreams Come True With Mumbai E...
VIP Kalyan Call Girls 🌐 9920725232 🌐 Make Your Dreams Come True With Mumbai E...
 
20240419-SMC-submission-Annual-Superannuation-Performance-Test-–-design-optio...
20240419-SMC-submission-Annual-Superannuation-Performance-Test-–-design-optio...20240419-SMC-submission-Annual-Superannuation-Performance-Test-–-design-optio...
20240419-SMC-submission-Annual-Superannuation-Performance-Test-–-design-optio...
 
Call Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
Call Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance BookingCall Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
Call Girls Koregaon Park Call Me 7737669865 Budget Friendly No Advance Booking
 
Airport Road Best Experience Call Girls Number-📞📞9833754194 Santacruz MOst Es...
Airport Road Best Experience Call Girls Number-📞📞9833754194 Santacruz MOst Es...Airport Road Best Experience Call Girls Number-📞📞9833754194 Santacruz MOst Es...
Airport Road Best Experience Call Girls Number-📞📞9833754194 Santacruz MOst Es...
 
Kopar Khairane Russian Call Girls Number-9833754194-Navi Mumbai Fantastic Unl...
Kopar Khairane Russian Call Girls Number-9833754194-Navi Mumbai Fantastic Unl...Kopar Khairane Russian Call Girls Number-9833754194-Navi Mumbai Fantastic Unl...
Kopar Khairane Russian Call Girls Number-9833754194-Navi Mumbai Fantastic Unl...
 
Toronto dominion bank investor presentation.pdf
Toronto dominion bank investor presentation.pdfToronto dominion bank investor presentation.pdf
Toronto dominion bank investor presentation.pdf
 
7 tips trading Deriv Accumulator Options
7 tips trading Deriv Accumulator Options7 tips trading Deriv Accumulator Options
7 tips trading Deriv Accumulator Options
 
Stock Market Brief Deck (Under Pressure).pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck (Under Pressure).pdfStock Market Brief Deck (Under Pressure).pdf
Stock Market Brief Deck (Under Pressure).pdf
 
Technology industry / Finnish economic outlook
Technology industry / Finnish economic outlookTechnology industry / Finnish economic outlook
Technology industry / Finnish economic outlook
 
Cybersecurity Threats in Financial Services Protection.pptx
Cybersecurity Threats in  Financial Services Protection.pptxCybersecurity Threats in  Financial Services Protection.pptx
Cybersecurity Threats in Financial Services Protection.pptx
 
CBD Belapur Expensive Housewife Call Girls Number-📞📞9833754194 No 1 Vipp HIgh...
CBD Belapur Expensive Housewife Call Girls Number-📞📞9833754194 No 1 Vipp HIgh...CBD Belapur Expensive Housewife Call Girls Number-📞📞9833754194 No 1 Vipp HIgh...
CBD Belapur Expensive Housewife Call Girls Number-📞📞9833754194 No 1 Vipp HIgh...
 
Pension dashboards forum 1 May 2024 (1).pdf
Pension dashboards forum 1 May 2024 (1).pdfPension dashboards forum 1 May 2024 (1).pdf
Pension dashboards forum 1 May 2024 (1).pdf
 
VIP Independent Call Girls in Andheri 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Escorts...
VIP Independent Call Girls in Andheri 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Escorts...VIP Independent Call Girls in Andheri 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Escorts...
VIP Independent Call Girls in Andheri 🌹 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Mumbai Escorts...
 
VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...
VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...
VIP Call Girl in Mumbai 💧 9920725232 ( Call Me ) Get A New Crush Everyday Wit...
 
➥🔝 7737669865 🔝▻ Malda Call-girls in Women Seeking Men 🔝Malda🔝 Escorts Ser...
➥🔝 7737669865 🔝▻ Malda Call-girls in Women Seeking Men  🔝Malda🔝   Escorts Ser...➥🔝 7737669865 🔝▻ Malda Call-girls in Women Seeking Men  🔝Malda🔝   Escorts Ser...
➥🔝 7737669865 🔝▻ Malda Call-girls in Women Seeking Men 🔝Malda🔝 Escorts Ser...
 
Navi Mumbai Cooperetive Housewife Call Girls-9833754194-Natural Panvel Enjoye...
Navi Mumbai Cooperetive Housewife Call Girls-9833754194-Natural Panvel Enjoye...Navi Mumbai Cooperetive Housewife Call Girls-9833754194-Natural Panvel Enjoye...
Navi Mumbai Cooperetive Housewife Call Girls-9833754194-Natural Panvel Enjoye...
 

Featured

How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthHow Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
ThinkNow
 
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie InsightsSocial Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Kurio // The Social Media Age(ncy)
 

Featured (20)

Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage EngineeringsProduct Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
Product Design Trends in 2024 | Teenage Engineerings
 
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental HealthHow Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
How Race, Age and Gender Shape Attitudes Towards Mental Health
 
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdfAI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
AI Trends in Creative Operations 2024 by Artwork Flow.pdf
 
Skeleton Culture Code
Skeleton Culture CodeSkeleton Culture Code
Skeleton Culture Code
 
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
PEPSICO Presentation to CAGNY Conference Feb 2024
 
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
Content Methodology: A Best Practices Report (Webinar)
 
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
How to Prepare For a Successful Job Search for 2024
 
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie InsightsSocial Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
Social Media Marketing Trends 2024 // The Global Indie Insights
 
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
Trends In Paid Search: Navigating The Digital Landscape In 2024
 
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
5 Public speaking tips from TED - Visualized summary
 
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
ChatGPT and the Future of Work - Clark Boyd
 
Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next Getting into the tech field. what next
Getting into the tech field. what next
 
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search IntentGoogle's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
Google's Just Not That Into You: Understanding Core Updates & Search Intent
 
How to have difficult conversations
How to have difficult conversations How to have difficult conversations
How to have difficult conversations
 
Introduction to Data Science
Introduction to Data ScienceIntroduction to Data Science
Introduction to Data Science
 
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity -  Best PracticesTime Management & Productivity -  Best Practices
Time Management & Productivity - Best Practices
 
The six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project managementThe six step guide to practical project management
The six step guide to practical project management
 
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
Beginners Guide to TikTok for Search - Rachel Pearson - We are Tilt __ Bright...
 
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
Unlocking the Power of ChatGPT and AI in Testing - A Real-World Look, present...
 
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work
12 Ways to Increase Your Influence at Work
 

MLP Association Conference Highlights

  • 1. MLP Association Conference Highlights Annual conference held his past week. William's discloses that merger synergies have disappeared even if higher energy prices return. NGSA forecasts electric demand for natural gas to break records. The benchmark index advanced 2.90% while Crude fell 1.4% for the week after Baker Hughes reported the rig count increased by 4, perhaps as a result of higher prices. The Master Limited Partnership Association (NYSEARCA:MLPA) held their annual investor conference in Orlando, where attendance appeared 15% lighter than previous years, yet well attended by Investment Bankers, Legal and Tax Advisors, and Institutional investors. The tone of the conference was certainly focused on risk management and adjusting to uncertain volume expansion as a result of weak prices and still questionable capital market access and investor interest. While energy prices are on the rebound, the pain and suffering inflicted on individual investors who owned upstream units, frac sand units and even some midstream units, will have an enduring impact towards enticing new capital and investors to the asset class. Although the mood was more upbeat from last year, the benchmark index has lost 30% since last year's conference, while gaining 7.14% since the beginning of the year. At the September midpoint between the two conferences. In our view, MLP investor seek stability where distribution cuts are not a quarterly concern and investment goals are aligned with steady income rather than highly leveraged 15-20% annual total returns. At the moment, risk headlines still dominate the sector which will not subside until a few situations play out, including the Plains All American plan for simplification and of course the Dr Jekyll and Mr Hyde Merger between Energy Transfer and Williams, which is affecting 3 of the top 6 MLP units by market capitalization. The industry is in need of some self-help along with more favorable market conditions to reposition the MLP structure and attract new investors. Latham and Watkin's recognized the need for change with their Make MLPS Great Again hats, although the
  • 2. conference was attended by some participants who conceived, structured and sold many of the units which have caused investor damage and stained the MLP structure. Great slogan and a sought after item in Orlando, so props to the marketing team. With over 66 units participating, including several which have suspended distributions, the Conference provided an opportunity to consolidate Management feedback on several themes which have been the source of investor speculation: How Will the MLP Model Evolve: While some have suggested the MLP model will no longer be a viable structure to attract capital, the conference participants and audience offered a constructive framework to evolve the model to reduce the level of risk, which had increased as a result of the shale boom buildout over the past three years. Higher DCF Coverage, lower leverage, IDR rebates and further asset development by Sponsors were a few of the suggestions noted by a panel of fund sponsors. Of course, these suggestions will come at the expense of current distributions for some units, and lower growth for others. It is worth noting that as of Q1, only 4 units have maintained or increased both their per unit DCF coverage and Cash Flow from Operations year over year. Midstream Contract Renegotiation's Inspired by Sabine Ruling: Surprisingly, we did not hear much concern on this topic as most midstream units focused instead on counter-party credits and their relative health. As we have been reporting in our Weekly Bankruptcy Watch, forward MVC cash flow exposure from Chapter 11 filings has been rather insignificant, as most midstream units have protected themselves from receivables exposure by modifying payment and credit terms prior to filings. While there are certainly weaker suppliers using the Sabine judgment to pressure their midstream suppliers, the exposure from such situations appears to be baked into forward guidance, given the visibility of producer duress over the past year. Slower Growth and Consolidation: Midstream capacity has clearly exceeded demand, limiting the interest and need for new infrastructure. Excess capacity was noted by several speakers (not just Plains All American
  • 3. (NYSE:PAA), raising suggestions that desperate operators may start tariff wars to market underutilized capacity. While MLP's have been building out new assets, it has been less transparent to understand how existing assets have been performing. As further organic projects either take a pause, or enter a hiatus, some units will not be able to offset weakening cash flows from certain assets, and will need to consolidate to achieve more diversified and synergistic mix of business. The Role of Incentive Distribution Rights: While those who have IDR's defended their role, some investors voiced concern that IDR's were not conceived to have uncapped eternal life, particularly when the GP is no longer incubating and financing the development of new assets. The circle of life for public GPs and IDR's will be quite different if the need for new projects continues to decline. Volume Reductions Impacting Midstream Cash Flows: Each month, US production and rig counts have been in decline, but the reductions have not yet been evident in the quarterly cash flows for many units. Capex reduction must also lead to lower volumes, although production efficiencies may reduce and delay the impact. Most management teams do expect a sharp decline in volumes over the back half of the year. In other news, the Natural Gas Supply Association (NGSA) released their 16th annual Summer Outlook assessment, which should give midstream investors some confidence that power generation trends are clearly impacting demand. Below is an excerpt from their release Jekyll and Hyde Merger Friday seems to be the preferred date for disclosures related to one of the most bizarre mergers investors have likely experienced. Williams (NYSE:WMB) started the day with the new disclosure below related to their merger with Energy Transfer (NYSE:ETE), which says that irrespective of whether energy prices return to levels prevailing when the merger was announced in September 2015, the synergy number is still only 25% of what was used to justify and sell the deal initially. Apart from what this says about the methods and motivations related to the original number, it
  • 4. is shocking that both parties agreed to such a statement, without any further explanation. And if the above disclosure was not enough to motivate Williams shareholders to vote No, they also added the below paragraph, essentially putting shareholders on notice that the new securities will likely fall in value after the distributions are cut Later in the day, Williams released a revised Schedule A, which updated the Summary Deck outlining the merger. It is a lengthy effort to summarize how this deck has transformed since the Merger was announced on September 28th, 2015, but the changes are substantial with each party seeking a different outcome. It must have been a painful process to reach consensus between companies on how to portray a merger which can no longer be justified, but we look forward to hearing the real story once the agreement is completed one way or the other. Fund Flows and Lower Volumes A favorable trend of increasing fund flows picked up pace this pace week as$189MM of new capital flowed into MLP packaged products, with over $1B added over the past twelve months. Total Fund AUM is roughly $55B, or 9.5% of the total market cap of the MLPData universe While flows have been increasing moderately, unit turnover has been waning, suggesting that existing investors believe higher energy prices have reduced some of the fundamental risks associated with lower production volumes.