1. (12/11/2012)
Last week the November Employment report surprised to the upside with 146k jobs being added to the
economy versus expectations of only 85k jobs. The unemployment rate dropped from 7.9% to 7.7%. The
drop in rate was due to a decrease in the labor force. While we saw an increase in jobs a drop in the
labor participation does not signal a strong and confident labor market. Market focus on progress
regarding the Fiscal Cliff will heighten as we near year end. Any type of compromise will most likely
detract from GDP as we face higher taxes and decreased spending. This week’s data includes Retail
Sales, Inflation indicators, a round of Treasury Auctions and the FOMC meeting. Expectations are that the
Fed will continue to remain accommodative for the foreseeable future.
Economic Data/Events in the week ahead:
Monday: N/A
Tuesday: Trade Balance, Wholesale Inventories, Economic Optimism, JOLT’s Job Openings, 3yr Treasury
Auction
Wednesday: MBA Mortgage Applications, Import Prices, Monthly Budget Statement, FOMC Rate
Decision, 10yr Treasury Auction
Thursday: Weekly Jobless Claims, Retail Sales, Produce Price Index, Business Inventories, 30yr Treasury
Auction
Friday: Consumer Price Index, Industrial Production, Capacity Utilization