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International Syndicated Loans and
Regional Banks: Comparison between the
first and the second internationalization
Masaki YAMAGUCHI
Yamagata University, Japan
2-3, July 2-15
SIBR, Osaka Conference
This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 24530340.
Motivation
• Hot issue – international syndicated loans
• Gunma Bank – 10 billion yen buildup by the end of FY2013
• Hyakugo Bank – 55 billion yen buildup by the end of FY2015
• Chiba Bank – 20% increase of foreign currency loans by the end of FY2017
• Growth strategies of regional banks
• Loan demand cannot be expected to increase amid fierce competition in
shrinking regional economies
• Participation in syndicated loans could serve as a new source of profits for
regional banks
Research Questions
1. Differences between the 1st and 2nd
internationalization
2. Characteristics of deals that regional banks
participated?
Questions
Motivation
Related literature
Analysis 1 Analysis2
Result1 Result2
Related literature
• Type 1: Decision of syndication
• Influencing factors on decision whether set up a syndicate or not
• binary-choice model, Syndicate = F (Information, Agency, Loan term)
• Dennis and Mullineaux (2000), Godlewski and Weil (2008)
• Type2: Size of a syndicate
• what factors affect the syndicate structure
• count data model, Size = F (Opaque, Loan Characteristics)
• Lee and Mullineaux (2004) , Sufi (2007)
Related literature
• Type 3 : Difference in lending behavior
• Difference between bank types
• Model; Spread = F (loan terms, bank types)
• Haselmann and Wachtel (2011), Harjoto, Mullineaux, and Yi (2006)
• Position of this study
• close to the first type
• different in research object ; regional banks
Data
• Detailed loan transaction data
• Thomson Reuter – DealScan: Loan Database
• Sample: Transactions, Japanese banks participated
11,565 deals, 2009 – 2014 (2nd internationalization)
11,822 deals, 1992 - 1997 (1st internationalization)
• Location: All over the world
Overview
Year
Number of
Deals
Number of
Deals -
regional
banks
participated
(A)
Number of
regional
banks -
participated
deals (B)
Number of
regional
banks
Year
Number of
Deals
Number of
Deals -
regional
banks
participated
(A)
Number of
regional
banks -
participated
deals (B)
Number of
regional
banks
1992 723 34 66 2009 930 21 30
1993 1,214 44 100 2010 1,696 29 29
1994 1,768 63 132 2011 2,387 43 55
1995 2,124 83 137 2012 1,804 26 41
1996 2,813 86 136 2013 2,389 41 65
1997 3,180 45 64 2014 2,359 43 139
Total 11,822 355 635 Total 11,565 203 359
48 39
Active participation
Broad base
Borrower Country Borrower
country
Number of
Deals
Borrower
country
Number of
Deals
Korea 75 USA 61
USA 69 Korea 17
Thailand 57 China 12
HK 46 India 12
China 33 Panama 11
Indonesia 28 HK 10
Taiwan 8 Thailand 9
India 6 Indonesia 9
Singapore 5 Singapore 8
UK 5 Australia 7
1992 - 1997 2009 - 2014
Asian borrowers decrease their
presence
Hypothesis 1: regional banks
participate loans to Asian
borrowers
Geographical proximity reduces
information asymmetry
Currency
Currency
Number of
Deals
Percentage Currency
Number of
Deals
Percentage
USD 318 89.6 USD 108 57.1
HKD 22 6.2 JPY 61 32.3
JPY 10 2.8 CNY 5 2.6
GBP 3 0.8 HKD 4 2.1
Multi 2 0.6 US Equiv 4 2.1
1992 - 1997 2009 - 2014
First period - USD funding was easy for even regional banks
Second period - Denomination in JPY facilitates regional bank participation
(Hypothesis 2)
Purpose
Purpose
Number of
Deals
Percentage Purpose
Number of
Deals
Percentage
Corp purposes 196 55.2 Corp purposes 81 42.9
Debt Repay. 49 13.8 Work cap. 43 22.8
Work cap. 27 7.6 Debt Repay 21 11.1
Proj. finance 21 5.9 Ship finance 15 7.9
CP bachup 10 2.8 Capital expend 13 6.9
Aircraft finance 10 2.8 Proj. finance 6 3.2
Recap. 7 2.0 CP backup 3 1.6
Ship finance 7 2.0 Takeover 3 1.6
Capital expend. 7 2.0 Equip. Purch. 2 1.1
Undisclosed 6 1.7 Aircraft 1 0.5
1992 - 1997 2009 - 2014
Top 3 share the same nature: easy to measure the success and failure
Hypothesis 3: Regional banks participate loans for those purposes
Analysis 1 :Comparison
Means Sample Means Sample
AMOUNT (millions) 335 355 355 189 0.00
MATURITY (years) 4.28 344 4.98 187 0.59
NUMBER 21.2 355 10.8 189 0.00
U-test
2009 - 20141992 - 1997
Small difference
+Broad base
+Active participation
1992 - 1997 2009 - 2014 χ2
test
JPY 2.8% 32.3% 0.00
USD 89.6% 57.1% 0.00
CORP. 55.2% 42.9% 0.00
WORK 7.6% 22.8% 0.00
RATE 21.1% 49.7% 0.00
GUARANTEE 17.5% 14.3% 0.34
ASIA 73.8% 42.9% 0.00
FINANCIAL 36.3% 36.5% 0.96
Denomination
Loan purposes
Summary: Differences between two periods
• Activity – 1st > 2nd ← broad base, syndication size
• Borrower county – Asia ・ Rate
• Currency – JPY
Similarities
• Loan purposes, Guarantee, Financial, Amount, Maturity
Analysis 2: Probit model
Expalined variable Explanatory variables
Regional banks’ participation ← - Loan Characteristics
1 or 0 log(amount), maturity, rating
currency, guarantor
- Loan Purpose
working capital, corp. purpose
- Borrower Characteristics
country, industry
Estimation
Results
1992 - 1997
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5
LAOMOUNT -0.224**
-0.218**
-0.085**
-0.088**
-0.083**
(0.025) (0.026) (0.030) (0.031) (0.031)
MATURITY -0.015 -0.016 -0.021*
-0.015 -0.017
(0.010) (0.010) (0..010) (0.010) (0.010)
NUMBER 0.042**
0.042**
0.038**
0.038**
0.038**
(0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002)
JPY 0.560**
0.561**
0.192 0.183
(0.201) (0.200) (0.204) (0.204)
USD 0.214*
(0.092)
CORP. 0.376**
0.381**
0.248**
0.206**
0.195**
(0.053) (0.053) (0.058) (0.060) (0.060)
RATE -0.293**
-0.272**
0.113 0.126 0.115
(0.067) (0.069) (0.083) (0.083) (0.083)
GUARANTOR 0.135 -0.255**
(0.072) (0.075)
ASIA 1.181**
1.089**
1.126**
(0.079) (0.077) (0.078)
FINANCIAL 0.304**
0.299**
(0.064) (0.064)
CONST 1.575**
1.444**
-1.519**
-1.536**
-1.828**
(0.448) (0.455) (0.551) (0.554) (0.572)
Sample 10587 10587 10587 10587 10587
Pseudo R 2 0.119 0.120 0.211 0.214 0.216
Estimation
Results
2009 - 2014
Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5
LAOMOUNT -0.130**
-0.130**
-0.131**
-0.087**
-0.083**
(0.025) (0.025) (0.025) (0.027) (0.028)
MATURITY -0.0001 0.001 0.0009 0.001 0.002**
(0.0008) (0.0008) (0.0008) (0.0008) (0.0008)
NUMBER 0.014**
0.016**
0.016**
0.014**
0.015**
(0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003)
JPY 1.911**
1.821**
1.839**
1.832**
1.833**
(0.112) (0.114) (0.114) (0.115) (0.11)
CORP. -0.091
(0.066)
WORKING 0.590**
0.568**
0.495**
0.468**
(0.091) (0.092) (0.095) (0.098)
RATE 0.147*
0.137 0.155*
0.309**
0.227**
(0.073) (0.071) (0.072) (0.079) (0.080)
GUARANTOR 0.195*
-0.007
(0.096) (0.101)
ASIA 0.810**
0.681**
(0.078) (0.079)
FINANCIAL 0.660**
(0.080)
CONST 0.069 -0.115 -0.117 -1.224*
-1.454**
(0.462) (0.464) (0.465) (0.513) (0.529)
Sample 11270 11270 11270 11270 11270
Pseudo R 2 0.173 0.189 0.191 0.242 0.274
Summary of results
• Smaller loan → limited risk taking capability (1st & 2nd)
• JPY preference → funding problem for foreign currencies
(2st only)
• ASIA, FINANCIAL → smaller information asymmetry
(1st & 2nd)
• WORKING, CORP → lower risk of project
(1st & 2nd)
Explanatory variable Marginal effect Explanatory variable Marginal effect
LAMOUNT -0.002 LAOMOUNT -0.001
MATURITY 0.000 MATURITY 0.001
RATE 0.003 RATE 0.004
USD 0.005 JPY 0.262
NUMBER 0.001 NUMBER 0.000
CORP 0.006 WORKING 0.014
ASIA 0.069 ASIA 0.027
FINANCIAL 0.012 FINANCIAL 0.024
1992 - 1997 2009 - 2014
Marginal effects
Thank you for your attention!

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International syndicated loans and regional banks

  • 1. International Syndicated Loans and Regional Banks: Comparison between the first and the second internationalization Masaki YAMAGUCHI Yamagata University, Japan 2-3, July 2-15 SIBR, Osaka Conference This work was supported by JSPS KAKENHI Grant Number 24530340.
  • 2. Motivation • Hot issue – international syndicated loans • Gunma Bank – 10 billion yen buildup by the end of FY2013 • Hyakugo Bank – 55 billion yen buildup by the end of FY2015 • Chiba Bank – 20% increase of foreign currency loans by the end of FY2017 • Growth strategies of regional banks • Loan demand cannot be expected to increase amid fierce competition in shrinking regional economies • Participation in syndicated loans could serve as a new source of profits for regional banks
  • 3. Research Questions 1. Differences between the 1st and 2nd internationalization 2. Characteristics of deals that regional banks participated?
  • 4. Questions Motivation Related literature Analysis 1 Analysis2 Result1 Result2
  • 5. Related literature • Type 1: Decision of syndication • Influencing factors on decision whether set up a syndicate or not • binary-choice model, Syndicate = F (Information, Agency, Loan term) • Dennis and Mullineaux (2000), Godlewski and Weil (2008) • Type2: Size of a syndicate • what factors affect the syndicate structure • count data model, Size = F (Opaque, Loan Characteristics) • Lee and Mullineaux (2004) , Sufi (2007)
  • 6. Related literature • Type 3 : Difference in lending behavior • Difference between bank types • Model; Spread = F (loan terms, bank types) • Haselmann and Wachtel (2011), Harjoto, Mullineaux, and Yi (2006) • Position of this study • close to the first type • different in research object ; regional banks
  • 7. Data • Detailed loan transaction data • Thomson Reuter – DealScan: Loan Database • Sample: Transactions, Japanese banks participated 11,565 deals, 2009 – 2014 (2nd internationalization) 11,822 deals, 1992 - 1997 (1st internationalization) • Location: All over the world
  • 8. Overview Year Number of Deals Number of Deals - regional banks participated (A) Number of regional banks - participated deals (B) Number of regional banks Year Number of Deals Number of Deals - regional banks participated (A) Number of regional banks - participated deals (B) Number of regional banks 1992 723 34 66 2009 930 21 30 1993 1,214 44 100 2010 1,696 29 29 1994 1,768 63 132 2011 2,387 43 55 1995 2,124 83 137 2012 1,804 26 41 1996 2,813 86 136 2013 2,389 41 65 1997 3,180 45 64 2014 2,359 43 139 Total 11,822 355 635 Total 11,565 203 359 48 39 Active participation Broad base
  • 9. Borrower Country Borrower country Number of Deals Borrower country Number of Deals Korea 75 USA 61 USA 69 Korea 17 Thailand 57 China 12 HK 46 India 12 China 33 Panama 11 Indonesia 28 HK 10 Taiwan 8 Thailand 9 India 6 Indonesia 9 Singapore 5 Singapore 8 UK 5 Australia 7 1992 - 1997 2009 - 2014 Asian borrowers decrease their presence Hypothesis 1: regional banks participate loans to Asian borrowers Geographical proximity reduces information asymmetry
  • 10. Currency Currency Number of Deals Percentage Currency Number of Deals Percentage USD 318 89.6 USD 108 57.1 HKD 22 6.2 JPY 61 32.3 JPY 10 2.8 CNY 5 2.6 GBP 3 0.8 HKD 4 2.1 Multi 2 0.6 US Equiv 4 2.1 1992 - 1997 2009 - 2014 First period - USD funding was easy for even regional banks Second period - Denomination in JPY facilitates regional bank participation (Hypothesis 2)
  • 11. Purpose Purpose Number of Deals Percentage Purpose Number of Deals Percentage Corp purposes 196 55.2 Corp purposes 81 42.9 Debt Repay. 49 13.8 Work cap. 43 22.8 Work cap. 27 7.6 Debt Repay 21 11.1 Proj. finance 21 5.9 Ship finance 15 7.9 CP bachup 10 2.8 Capital expend 13 6.9 Aircraft finance 10 2.8 Proj. finance 6 3.2 Recap. 7 2.0 CP backup 3 1.6 Ship finance 7 2.0 Takeover 3 1.6 Capital expend. 7 2.0 Equip. Purch. 2 1.1 Undisclosed 6 1.7 Aircraft 1 0.5 1992 - 1997 2009 - 2014 Top 3 share the same nature: easy to measure the success and failure Hypothesis 3: Regional banks participate loans for those purposes
  • 12. Analysis 1 :Comparison Means Sample Means Sample AMOUNT (millions) 335 355 355 189 0.00 MATURITY (years) 4.28 344 4.98 187 0.59 NUMBER 21.2 355 10.8 189 0.00 U-test 2009 - 20141992 - 1997 Small difference +Broad base +Active participation
  • 13. 1992 - 1997 2009 - 2014 χ2 test JPY 2.8% 32.3% 0.00 USD 89.6% 57.1% 0.00 CORP. 55.2% 42.9% 0.00 WORK 7.6% 22.8% 0.00 RATE 21.1% 49.7% 0.00 GUARANTEE 17.5% 14.3% 0.34 ASIA 73.8% 42.9% 0.00 FINANCIAL 36.3% 36.5% 0.96 Denomination Loan purposes
  • 14. Summary: Differences between two periods • Activity – 1st > 2nd ← broad base, syndication size • Borrower county – Asia ・ Rate • Currency – JPY Similarities • Loan purposes, Guarantee, Financial, Amount, Maturity
  • 15. Analysis 2: Probit model Expalined variable Explanatory variables Regional banks’ participation ← - Loan Characteristics 1 or 0 log(amount), maturity, rating currency, guarantor - Loan Purpose working capital, corp. purpose - Borrower Characteristics country, industry
  • 16. Estimation Results 1992 - 1997 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 LAOMOUNT -0.224** -0.218** -0.085** -0.088** -0.083** (0.025) (0.026) (0.030) (0.031) (0.031) MATURITY -0.015 -0.016 -0.021* -0.015 -0.017 (0.010) (0.010) (0..010) (0.010) (0.010) NUMBER 0.042** 0.042** 0.038** 0.038** 0.038** (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) JPY 0.560** 0.561** 0.192 0.183 (0.201) (0.200) (0.204) (0.204) USD 0.214* (0.092) CORP. 0.376** 0.381** 0.248** 0.206** 0.195** (0.053) (0.053) (0.058) (0.060) (0.060) RATE -0.293** -0.272** 0.113 0.126 0.115 (0.067) (0.069) (0.083) (0.083) (0.083) GUARANTOR 0.135 -0.255** (0.072) (0.075) ASIA 1.181** 1.089** 1.126** (0.079) (0.077) (0.078) FINANCIAL 0.304** 0.299** (0.064) (0.064) CONST 1.575** 1.444** -1.519** -1.536** -1.828** (0.448) (0.455) (0.551) (0.554) (0.572) Sample 10587 10587 10587 10587 10587 Pseudo R 2 0.119 0.120 0.211 0.214 0.216
  • 17. Estimation Results 2009 - 2014 Model 1 Model 2 Model 3 Model 4 Model 5 LAOMOUNT -0.130** -0.130** -0.131** -0.087** -0.083** (0.025) (0.025) (0.025) (0.027) (0.028) MATURITY -0.0001 0.001 0.0009 0.001 0.002** (0.0008) (0.0008) (0.0008) (0.0008) (0.0008) NUMBER 0.014** 0.016** 0.016** 0.014** 0.015** (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) (0.003) JPY 1.911** 1.821** 1.839** 1.832** 1.833** (0.112) (0.114) (0.114) (0.115) (0.11) CORP. -0.091 (0.066) WORKING 0.590** 0.568** 0.495** 0.468** (0.091) (0.092) (0.095) (0.098) RATE 0.147* 0.137 0.155* 0.309** 0.227** (0.073) (0.071) (0.072) (0.079) (0.080) GUARANTOR 0.195* -0.007 (0.096) (0.101) ASIA 0.810** 0.681** (0.078) (0.079) FINANCIAL 0.660** (0.080) CONST 0.069 -0.115 -0.117 -1.224* -1.454** (0.462) (0.464) (0.465) (0.513) (0.529) Sample 11270 11270 11270 11270 11270 Pseudo R 2 0.173 0.189 0.191 0.242 0.274
  • 18. Summary of results • Smaller loan → limited risk taking capability (1st & 2nd) • JPY preference → funding problem for foreign currencies (2st only) • ASIA, FINANCIAL → smaller information asymmetry (1st & 2nd) • WORKING, CORP → lower risk of project (1st & 2nd)
  • 19. Explanatory variable Marginal effect Explanatory variable Marginal effect LAMOUNT -0.002 LAOMOUNT -0.001 MATURITY 0.000 MATURITY 0.001 RATE 0.003 RATE 0.004 USD 0.005 JPY 0.262 NUMBER 0.001 NUMBER 0.000 CORP 0.006 WORKING 0.014 ASIA 0.069 ASIA 0.027 FINANCIAL 0.012 FINANCIAL 0.024 1992 - 1997 2009 - 2014 Marginal effects
  • 20. Thank you for your attention!

Editor's Notes

  1. 地方銀行の国際業務についての分析
  2. 報道では・・・地銀が積極的、外貨貸出の積み上げ、国際シ・ローンへの参加 地銀の競争環境:地方経済の縮小、利鞘の低下 国際シ・ローン-収益源としての期待が高まる
  3. 2つの課題 90年代前半の盛り上がりと現在を比較 地銀が参加する案件の特徴を探る
  4. ここまで-モチベーションと課題 次-関連研究から本研究の特徴 2つの分析結果を紹介
  5. シ・ローン研究 研究戦略から3つに分類 シンジケートを組成するか否か 二値選択モデル シンジケート構造=参加行数の決定要因 非負の整数値 ポワソン 負の二項回帰
  6. 貸出行動の比較 外国銀行 vs. 現地銀行 商業銀行 vs. 投資銀行 本研究は 二値選択モデル 地銀の参加確率に影響する要因        地銀を取り上げる
  7. 第一次 90年代 第二次 ここ5年間 邦銀参加案件が母集団 地銀はあくまで参加行 地銀の特徴を析出
  8. 青 地銀 参加案件数 355 vs. 203 緑 参加地銀数 48 vs. 39 一次の方が 活発 裾野が広い
  9. 二次でも アジア諸国が米国向け案件の数を上回る 地銀はアジア向け案件を選好 地理的近さが情報問題を軽減 (仮説1)
  10. 一次 USDが群を抜くーアジアはドル圏 二次 JPYの取引が多いのではないか? 円建てを選好(仮説2)
  11. 審査がやりやすい、リスクの小さな案件を選好 (仮説3) 借入企業の業種 金融サービスが68件で目立つ ここまでが概観
  12. This is comparison~
  13. This is comparisons about discrete variables
  14. 相違点と類似点 We summarize comparison results. We find active participation~
  15. 地銀の参加確率に影響する要因は何か? 3つの変数群 融資条件、資金使途、借り手の属性
  16. 細かい数字なので箇条書きでまとめる
  17. 地銀なのでスプレッドを乗せられるのでは? この結果から有望分野である国際シ・ローンを推進する障壁が見えてくる
  18. 限界効果が大きいのは円建て アジア向け、金融機関向け(情報生産に関わる) 第一次はアジア通貨危機、不良債権問題で頓挫 第二次はまだ継続 どういう段階なのか定点観測 成長戦略の柱になるのか、注視 keep close watch on