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Ammar malik urbanab-mspakistan-may2012-v2

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Ammar malik urbanab-mspakistan-may2012-v2

  1. 1. Agent-Based Modeling Simulations for Solving Pakistan’s Urban Challenges Dr. Hilton L. Root, Professor of Public Policy Dr. Andrew T. Crooks, Assistant Professor Ammar A. Malik, PhD Student School of Public Policy, George Mason University, USA
  2. 2. Towards an Urban Future• Cities play a critical role in our lives, providing habitat for more than half of the world’s population o Expected to increase to 70% by 2050 o Creating acute pressure on housing, congestion, urban sprawl etc• Understanding such systems is extremely complex. o Represents “…one of the major scientific challenges of our time” (Wilson 2000)• Focus has shifted to a bottom-up approach to urban systems o One such approach is Agent-Based Modeling (ABM)
  3. 3. What is Social Simulation? (I)We use simulation to representcognitive and organizationalbases of decision making thatshape the emergent results ofinteractions between groups ofagents. Schelling’s Segregation Model• Small preference for one’s same-color  neighbors can lead to totalsegregation.• Behavioral Rule: If you are in a smallminority (<25% neighbors of the samecolor), you are unhappy and will tryto move.
  4. 4. What is Social Simulation? (II)Example below demonstrates how traffic jams canform without any incident. Each car is an agent thatfollows a simple rule set:• If there’s a car close ahead, it slows down.• If there’s no car ahead, it speeds up.
  5. 5. What is Social Simulation? (III)Researchers from Japaneseuniversities put 22 vehicles on a230-metre single-lane circuit:• 22 cars equally spaced on a230m single lane circle.• Drivers asked to cruise steadilyat 30km/h.At first, the traffic moved freely• Disturbances and clusterssoon appear, causing cars toslow or stop.• Cars at front of the cluster canaccelerate at 40km/h, butthese join another jam. Source: http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Suugn-p5C1M New Scientist Article: http://technology.newscientist.com/article/dn13402
  6. 6. Modeling Urban Pakistan• The diagnosis: Pakistan’s urban spheres lack creativity and have poor connectivity• Our Main Research Questions: o What key underlying factors are inhibiting creativity in Pakistani cities? o What is the relationship between physical and social connectivity and creativity? o Policy Question: what can be done to improve the situation?• Transferring models and scenario generation know- how to Pakistani planners through trainings
  7. 7. Agent-Based Model of Karachi• Karachi’s large share in GDP and tax revenues• Agents – mostly human subjects defined by their role in society, e.g. creative class, investors• A set of relationships – capturing interdependencies and linkages• Rules of interaction – basic structure of the model• Demographic and spatial data from the real-world
  8. 8. Karachi Creative Clusters Model• Inspiration from Richard Florida’s theory of creative class• Inputs: inclusiveness, economic opportunities, rental rates, political stability, talent, technology and tolerance• Outputs: urban density, human capital, patented innovations,
  9. 9. Economic Disparity Model Interface Output Input Environment Parameters Parameters Economic Disparity Model NetLogo Interface (Felsen and Wilensky 2007)
  10. 10. Concluding Thoughts• ABMs allow “theory building” and “hypothesis generation” (Barros 2012)• For example, impact of commercializing and rezoning state-owned land along Mall Road Lahore• ABMs are planning support systems, not for accurate normative predictions• Project will hopefully generate a new narrative for Pakistan’s daunting urban challenges
  11. 11. Agent-Based Modeling Simulations for Solving Pakistan’s Urban Challenges Dr. Hilton L. Root, Professor of Public Policy Dr. Andrew T. Crooks, Assistant Professor Ammar A. Malik, PhD Student School of Public Policy, George Mason University, USA

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