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Exclusive
     Analysis
Foresight Political Risk
Exclusive Analysis | Specialist Political Risk Forecasting




         As a company, we focus solely on forecasting. We are not
      structurally conflicted by the sale of other services. It is central
      to the Exclusive Analysis ethos that we retain an objective view

       Clients trust us as we are not trying to sell any brokerage or
       physical services, nor do we trade on our own accounts. Our
          independence allows us to access areas others cannot

      We spend all of our time innovating risk forecasting techniques
      to give you the best intelligence picture to maximise business
             opportunities and manage strategic risks globally
Global Foresight | Core Forecasting Team




       Simon                Brian            Michael              Ade                  David               Alexia
        Sole               Lawson            Simms               Onitolo               Hunt                 Ash
Global Political Risk   Senior Global    Global Economist   Specialist Political    Technology         Quantitative
  Thought Leader           Banker        and Bond Trader       Economist             Innovator        Political Analyst




      Teymur               Rachel            Carlos              Zaineb                 Firas             Natznet
     Huseynov            Shoemaker          Cardenas            Al-Assam               Abi Ali            Tesfay
 Eurasia Oil & Gas      China Business   Venezuela Energy     Iraq and Iran        Islamic Finance   Africa Urbanisation
    Consultant            Strategist        Specialist           Expert                Specialist          Advisor
Source Network | Global Intelligence Infrastructure




 GLOBAL/Former global head of                               EURASIA/Expert on post-Soviet
    fixed income at a major                                politics and energy, with extensive
       international bank                                       due diligence experience


AFRICA/Analyst on Nigeria's oil &                          MENA/Close aide to late Lebanese
 gas market and has worked for                                PM Rafiq Hariri, with senior
     Nigerian oil companies                                contacts in the Future Movement


LATAM/Independent economist                                    ASIA/Experienced Indian
who has served as an advisor to                               economist and investment
 the Sao Paulo state governor                                  manager from Mumbai




     Over 1,000 human sources worldwide reporting against indicators of change
Indicator Events | Systemised Collection of Global Intelligence and Data




  Historical global dataset of over 475,000 indicator events that report against
       indicators of change, feeding into a highly systemised intelligence
                        methodology to drive our forecasts
Insight Briefs | Understanding the Sovereign Operating Environment




  Over 10,300 insight briefs on the sovereign operating environment, including
   physical and social risks, as well as streams of daily intelligence briefs and
                               week ahead forecasts
Forecast Briefs | Decision-Ready Strategic Country Planning




  Over 1,400 forecast briefs that inform strategic country planning, forecasting
       contract frustration, taxation, currency, bribery & corruption and
                   expropriation and political instability risks
Country Risk Scores | Intelligence-Driven Quantitative Forecasting




    Our proprietary intelligence and forecasting methodology is used to drive
  country risk scores, calculated logarithmically based upon contract risks, tax &
                 currency risks, political instability and violent risks
Location Intelligence | Operational Risk Planning




     Incident and indicator events are geo-coded to generate location, asset,
  project and route-specific risk ratings, which support ground-level operational
                             and project risk planning
Global Risk Index | Risk Selection and Risk Pricing




   Global political risk index covering every country in the world, which can be
     integrated with existing in-house risk numeration systems to empower
                    intelligence-led risk selection and risk pricing
Home Page | User Customisation and Push Content




   Manage the risks specific to your interests from your customisable home
   page, stream risk and/or country-specific briefs and indicator events, and
                     receive location-specific push content
Clippings | Generate Reports for In-House Research and Analysis




   The clippings function enables indicator events, insight briefs and forecasts
    briefs to be generated into reports, which can then be used to support in-
                           house research and analysis
Exclusive
     Analysis
Foresight Political Risk

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Foresight Political Risk (Presentation)

  • 1. Exclusive Analysis Foresight Political Risk
  • 2. Exclusive Analysis | Specialist Political Risk Forecasting As a company, we focus solely on forecasting. We are not structurally conflicted by the sale of other services. It is central to the Exclusive Analysis ethos that we retain an objective view Clients trust us as we are not trying to sell any brokerage or physical services, nor do we trade on our own accounts. Our independence allows us to access areas others cannot We spend all of our time innovating risk forecasting techniques to give you the best intelligence picture to maximise business opportunities and manage strategic risks globally
  • 3. Global Foresight | Core Forecasting Team Simon Brian Michael Ade David Alexia Sole Lawson Simms Onitolo Hunt Ash Global Political Risk Senior Global Global Economist Specialist Political Technology Quantitative Thought Leader Banker and Bond Trader Economist Innovator Political Analyst Teymur Rachel Carlos Zaineb Firas Natznet Huseynov Shoemaker Cardenas Al-Assam Abi Ali Tesfay Eurasia Oil & Gas China Business Venezuela Energy Iraq and Iran Islamic Finance Africa Urbanisation Consultant Strategist Specialist Expert Specialist Advisor
  • 4. Source Network | Global Intelligence Infrastructure GLOBAL/Former global head of EURASIA/Expert on post-Soviet fixed income at a major politics and energy, with extensive international bank due diligence experience AFRICA/Analyst on Nigeria's oil & MENA/Close aide to late Lebanese gas market and has worked for PM Rafiq Hariri, with senior Nigerian oil companies contacts in the Future Movement LATAM/Independent economist ASIA/Experienced Indian who has served as an advisor to economist and investment the Sao Paulo state governor manager from Mumbai Over 1,000 human sources worldwide reporting against indicators of change
  • 5. Indicator Events | Systemised Collection of Global Intelligence and Data Historical global dataset of over 475,000 indicator events that report against indicators of change, feeding into a highly systemised intelligence methodology to drive our forecasts
  • 6. Insight Briefs | Understanding the Sovereign Operating Environment Over 10,300 insight briefs on the sovereign operating environment, including physical and social risks, as well as streams of daily intelligence briefs and week ahead forecasts
  • 7. Forecast Briefs | Decision-Ready Strategic Country Planning Over 1,400 forecast briefs that inform strategic country planning, forecasting contract frustration, taxation, currency, bribery & corruption and expropriation and political instability risks
  • 8. Country Risk Scores | Intelligence-Driven Quantitative Forecasting Our proprietary intelligence and forecasting methodology is used to drive country risk scores, calculated logarithmically based upon contract risks, tax & currency risks, political instability and violent risks
  • 9. Location Intelligence | Operational Risk Planning Incident and indicator events are geo-coded to generate location, asset, project and route-specific risk ratings, which support ground-level operational and project risk planning
  • 10. Global Risk Index | Risk Selection and Risk Pricing Global political risk index covering every country in the world, which can be integrated with existing in-house risk numeration systems to empower intelligence-led risk selection and risk pricing
  • 11. Home Page | User Customisation and Push Content Manage the risks specific to your interests from your customisable home page, stream risk and/or country-specific briefs and indicator events, and receive location-specific push content
  • 12. Clippings | Generate Reports for In-House Research and Analysis The clippings function enables indicator events, insight briefs and forecasts briefs to be generated into reports, which can then be used to support in- house research and analysis
  • 13. Exclusive Analysis Foresight Political Risk