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Rotary econ panel 100710 v2

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Rotary econ panel 100710 v2

  1. 1. The Economy, the M k t th Markets & Y You A Discussion with the Rotary Club of Monterey Cris Cabanillas, CFP ® Steve Merrell, CFP® Steve Merrell, CFP
  2. 2. DON’T BELIEVE EVERYTHING YOU DON T BELIEVE EVERYTHING YOU  HEAR
  3. 3. Subsequent returns 1 Year 38% 5 Year 117% 10 Year 326%
  4. 4. Subsequent returns b 1 Year 18% 5 Year 96% 10 Year 397%%
  5. 5. Subsequent returns 1 Year 23% 5 Year 122% 10 Year 455%
  6. 6. 2009 Returns Q1 ‐12.48% Q2 11.96% Q3 15.82% 15 82% Q4 8.10% Year 22.68% source: http://www.businessinsider.com, 10/16/2009
  7. 7. August 2010 Hindenburg Omen Pundits declare: “Beware market Beware meltdown.”
  8. 8. What did we get? Distribution of September S&P Returns 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 0 Data source: Standard & Poor’s
  9. 9. NOT AS BAD AS IT FEELS NOT AS BAD AS IT FEELS
  10. 10. The Consumer: Not dead yet... Retail Sales ‐ Pct Change vs. Year Ago 10 5 0 ‐5 ‐10 Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis ‐15
  11. 11. Industrial Production Industrial Production Pct Change vs. Year Ago 10 5 0 ‐5 5 ‐10 Source: U.S. Federal Reserve ‐15
  12. 12. Recovery’s rocky road Recovery s rocky road
  13. 13. Summary • Beware of pundits. Beware of pundits • The economy is healing, but recovery is rocky. • Si ifi Significant challenges remain. h ll i • Portfolio structure is key. • Diversification matters. • Look for opportunities. Look for opportunities
  14. 14. Questions & Answers Questions & Answers

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