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MACROECONOMICS

A Macroeconomic Country Report


               On


            UGANDA




               By:
   Dhruba Jyoti Chatterjee (11C)
        Hasan Nayar (16C)
    Jasmit Singh Chawla (19C)
      Kapish Kaushal (20C)
      Shashwat Sinha (41C)
      Surjodeb Sarkar (44C)
INTRODUCTION


Uganda which is also known as ‘Pearl of Africa’ is located in east Africa and shares its border with
Congo and Tanzania, South Sudan and Kenya. It follows a presidential democracy political system
with Yoweri K. Museveni from the ruling coalition National Resistance Movement (NRM) as its
current head of state. Apart from the NRM, other parties include Forum for Democratic Change
(FDC), Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and The Democratic Party (DP). Its capital is Kampala and its
official languages include English and Swahili. The local currency of Uganda is shilling.


Uganda gained independence in 1962 from the British Empire and the first parliamentary elections
were held in 1962. Milton Obote was the first Prime Minister of Uganda and was over thrown by Idi
Amin after a military coup in 1971. Idi Amin’s dictatorial rule lasted 8 years during which he carried
our mass killings. Milton Obote retuned to power in 1979 after the Uganda-Tanzania War when Idi
Amin was overthrown. General Tito Okello came into power in 1985 and ruled for six months after
which he was replaced by Yoweri K. Museveni after the bush war. Museveni has been in power since
1986.


Uganda has large natural resources and mineral deposits. It also has large untapped reserves of
crude oil and with the latest discovery of oil in Lake Albert, Uganda is poised for growth. Uganda’s
economy largely depends on the services sector like telecommunication, financial service and
construction which accounted for 52% of the GDP as of 2010. Other sectors which contribute to the
GDP include Industry contributing 26.5% and Agriculture which contributes 22.5%. Uganda’s major
produce include coffee, tea, cotton and tobacco. Uganda’s economy is growing at 5.1% per year as
of 2010. Uganda’s primary exports include Coffee, Fish products, Tobacco and Tea and its major
export markets are EU Countries, Sudan, UAE, Netherlands and Kenya. Uganda’s major imports
include machinery and equipment, petroleum products, Food and beverages and chemicals related
products and its main import sources are EU countries, Kenya, UAE, India and China.


About 30% of Uganda’s population had HIV in 1980. This figure has fallen to 6% as of date and
efforts to eradicate it continue making Uganda one of the rare success stories with respect to AIDS in
Africa. A policy to remove user fee at state health facility has also been implemented since 2001 and
has helped in this cause.
A large portion on Uganda's population is Illiterate with only 3.2% of GDP being spent on education.
More than 6 million pupils attend schools as of 2011. Almost 70000 students leave school for higher
education every year but. Only 35% of them are accommodated in higher institutions. Education is
very important for Uganda's sustenance and growth in future.


The Lord’s Resistance Army lead by Joseph Kony is the primary rebel group in Uganda. The LRA has
been accused of conducting mass human rights violations in Uganda including murder, abduction,
forcing children into hostilities and sexual enslavement. Uganda along with aid from the United
States of America continues to fight the LRA.


Uganda has strong bilateral ties with the US and EU countries. It also maintains ties with radical
states like North Korea and Iran. Apart from its international relations, Uganda also relies on IMF and
World Bank as a source of aid. However, recently Uganda’s relation with EU countries has been
strained with a part of the aid being withheld due to corruption charges on the Ugandan
government.


Uganda’s economy has good growth potential and the recent viable oil reserve discovery can enable
Uganda to become an oil exporter in the long run. It will also attract investment and fulfil its own
energy needs. However, there are numerous challenges which pose a threat to the growth of
Uganda’s economy and stability with problem areas like limited productivity in the recent years, over
dependence on agriculture, corruption and lack of governance.
UGANDA - Country Profile
 Country                                     Uganda            Country population (m)             32.7
 Capital                                     Kampala           Official language                  English
                                             GMT +2                                               Presidential
 Time zone of capital                                          Political system
                                             hours                                                democracy
 Surface area (sq km)                        2,36,040          Head of state                      Yoweri K. Museveni
 GDP (%)                                     5.2               GNP (%)                            5.7


 Top 3 export goods (% of total                                Top 3 import goods (% of total
 exports)                                                      imports)
 Coffee                                      16.8              Machinery & equipment              30.3
 Fish & fish products                        8.4               Petroleum products                 14.5
 Tobacco                                     4.9               Food, beverages & tobacco          13.3


 Top 3 export markets (% of total                              Top 3 import sources (% of total
 exports)                                                      imports)
 EU                                          31.3              EU                                 20.3
 Sudan                                       14.2              Kenya                              15.6
 UAE                                         10.2              UAE                                14.8




MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN THE RECENT PAST
With democracy in place, Uganda has taken a step towards economic rehabilitation and
development in the past two decades. There has been a focus on rebuilding the infrastructure,
primarily the transportation and communications that were destroyed by war and neglect. Uganda
has benefited significantly from the support it has received from the IMF and the World Bank, with
almost all its foreign debts being forgiven under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative
(HIPC). Consequently, it has emerged as one of the fastest growing economies in the last five years.
(Nominal GDP, 2010: 17.7 Billion USD; GDP (PPP): 42.2 Billion USD). However, the Ugandan Economy
contracted sharply in the years 2009 and 2010, following the global recession, which led to a weak
external demand for traditional exports (particularly coffee) and a drop in aggregate demand.

            Real GDP Growth (%age) (2006-2011)
  12
                                         10.4
  10
                           8.1
    8        7.1
                                                        5.7                          5.6
    6                                                                  4.9
    4
    2
    0
           2006           2007          2008            2009         2010         2011 (E)

               Source : IMF and Local Authorities' Data; Estimations used for 2011 data

With a median age of 15 years, Uganda boasts of one of the youngest populations in the world. The
current estimated population is close to 35 million. Its population growth rate is 3.5%, way above
the global rate of 1.2%. While the growing population is expected to create a favourable
demographic profile in terms of growth and development, it is becoming increasingly difficult to
create jobs at the same rate. As per the labour flow figures at Uganda Investment Authority and the
Uganda Bureau of Statistics, more than 4,00,000 Ugandans enter the labour market every year; only
about 1,13,000 are absorbed in formal employment. While the unemployment rate is 3.5%, the
youth unemployment rate is close to 32%. In case of University Graduates, this figure goes upto 36%.
The recent discovery of oil reserves has renewed hope amongst the Ugandan youth about the
economic prospects, though it also raises concerns about possible cases of corruption, considering
the case of many other African nations. While the Government’s decision to “invest in young
people” by making it a fundamental social obligation in Uganda’s Poverty Eradication Action Plan is
appreciable, there is still a lot of ground to cover.

The Government has maintained an expansionary fiscal policy aiming to achieve strong real GDP
growth of 7% or more, its impact has been weakened by under-execution of the capital budget.
However, the total expenditure is expected to go up as per the National Development Plan. Uganda
continues to be a largely untaxed economy (especially in the agricultural sector). Moreover, ill-
defined exemption norms and loopholes in the current tax legislation have also eroded the tax base.
Hence, there has been a decline in the total revenue collection and grants.

Table: Public Finances (As % of GDP)
                        2007                         2008   2009        2010            2011(E)
Total Revenues          18.5                         16.3   15.4        14.9            13.9

Taxes
and Grants

Grants
                        12.8                         13.2   12.5        12.1            11.5
                        5.1                          3      2.8         2.7             2.3


Current
Total Expenditure              19.9                  15.9   15.3        16.7            16.4

Expenditure
                               12.2                  10.7   10          9.6             9.6

Capital Expenditure            7.2                   5.9    5.5         7.2             6.6

Overall Balance                -1.4                  0.4    0.1         -1.5            -2.5

Source: Uganda Bureau of Statistics and Bank of Uganda


The Bank of Uganda is responsible for managing the monetary policy in the country. Its primary
objective is to control inflation, besides maintaining stability in the domestic financial markets and
foreign exchange markets. The monetary policy stance is to restrict inflation to 5%. However, the
inflation figures leaped beyond 13% in the year 2009, mainly because of the following reasons:
     a. Presence of pirates in the Indian Ocean, break-downs in the Mombasa Oil refineries and new
         transportation/trade regulations pushed the fuel prices up.
     b. Natural disasters, including floods and landslides, led to an increase in food prices.

Favourable weather conditions and improved food production helped reduce the food prices and
hence, the inflationary pressure dropped to 7.3% in the year 2010. However, the inflation figures
this year have gone through the roof; the Annual Headline Inflation Rate for the year ending
November 2011 read 29%, which is actually a shade lower than the figure of 30.4% noted last
month. This can be explained in light of the expansionary monetary policy followed by the BOU in
the year 2010 and early 2011. With an eye on the promotion of domestic investment, the BOU
reduced the interest rates. The BOU allowed the Central Government to draw its savings and
increasingly borrow from it during 2010 and early 2011. This led to an increased circulation of
currency in the market. With the prices of crude oil moving up again and the shortage in the food
production, inflation was all but an expected outcome.

              CPI Inflation (2007-2011)
   40
   30                                                                     29
   20
                                12            13.4
   10
                  6.4                                       7.3
    0
             2007          2008          2009            2010     2011 (Nov)

Source: African Economic Outlook


Uganda has operated a flexible exchange rate since the early 1990’s, occasionally intervening in the
foreign exchange market to contain volatility. This has been done to maintain an appropriate level of
international reserves to cushion against external shocks and maintain competitiveness in the export
market. However, being a small open economy, it was impossible to remain unaffected by the
adverse affects of the global financial crisis of 2008. The sloppy growth in exports, capital inflows
and foreign direct investment against the rising demand for foreign currency and imports has led to
a steady depreciation of the Ugandan shilling since 2009. The value of the Ugandan Shilling stands at
2400 units per US Dollar, a slight improvement from the all-time low of 2900 units per US Dollar in
September earlier this year. The Ugandan media has reacted strongly to the “impending economic
crisis”, comparing the current scenario to that of Zimbabwe.

The export receipts as a %age of GDP has been declining in recent years. The imports are growing at
a faster rate than the exports, a trend that is likely to continue. Therefore, the current account
balance is expected to deteriorate in the near future. Capital inflows in the form of FDI and official
loans have more than financed the current account deficit in the past, creating a surplus in the
balance of payments. This channel has dried as a direct consequence of the global financial crisis of
2008. With another crisis developing in the European region, the mood is unlikely to change, the
depreciating shilling being an indication.

Table: Current Account (As %age of GDP):

Exports of
                 2007           2008                               2009        2010    2011(E)

Goods (FOB)
                 11.1           15.9                               16.7        15.6    14.9

Imports of
Goods (FOB)
                 18.4           21.4                               24.1        24.7    25.3

Trade            -7.3           -5.6                               -7.4        -9.1    -10.5
Balance
Source: Uganda Bureau of Statistics and Bank of Uganda
The industrial sector is growing as a consequence of the infrastructure development activities in the
country, as can be seen by the growth in products used in construction, such as cement, bricks, paint
and metallic products. The unstable and inconsistent supply of electricity continues to hamper
industrial growth, especially in extractive industries such as mining and crude oil. The monthly trend
in the volume of goods produced by the manufacturing sector in Uganda is measured in terms of
Index of Production (IoP). This index is based on 2002 prices and is a result of the compilation of data
from nearly 200 business establishments. In the current index, the Food Processing Group,
Beverages and Tobacco, Chemicals, Paint and Foam Products have been given the highest weights.


                           Industrial Production Growth rate (2006-2010)
  8
                                                        7
  6                               5.8                                                  6
                5.2
  4
  2
                                                                              0.7
  0
            2006              2007                2008                     2009     2010
                                        Source: CIA World Factbook, 2011




MACROECONOMIC DIFFICULTIES FACED BY UGANDA
The most severe macro-economic problem faced by Uganda has been the surge in inflation during
the past 18 months. Headline and core inflation increased sharply from 4.2% and 4.6% respectively,
in June 2010 to 15.7 % and 12.2% in June 2011.

Recovering from the global crisis, the macroeconomic policy objective in 2010-11 was to accelerate
economic growth and create employment. To achieve this task, the priorities were focused on
expansion of economic infrastructure and increasing domestic production. Thus the Bank of
Uganda’s target was to keep the core inflation below 5%, thereby not constraining the growth of the
country in a big manner. In response to the weakening economic situation following the global crisis,
there was an expansionary monetary policy followed in the first half of the year. This was to help in
boosting aggregate demand of the economy.

However, it was in the second half of the year, that the food prices saw a rise due to supply shocks
to production, most notably the droughts in both Uganda and its East African neighbours. The
prolonged drought affected most of the food producing regions of the country. Food accounts for
27.2 percent of the overall Ugandan consumer basket of goods and services. Annual food price
inflation increased to 33.4 percent in June 2011. Inflation of non-food items, which account for the
remaining 73.8 percent of the consumer basket, was much more moderate, although it has edged up
in recent months to 7.9 percent in June 2011.
60



  50



  40



  30
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Food Prices
                                                                                                                                                                                                    Non Food Prices
  20



  10



   0
                                  Apr-07




                                                                      Apr-08




                                                                                                          Apr-09




                                                                                                                                              Apr-10




                                                                                                                                                                                  Apr-11
                                                             Jan-08




                                                                                                 Jan-09




                                                                                                                                     Jan-10
       Jul-06
                Oct-06
                         Jan-07


                                           Jul-07
                                                    Oct-07




                                                                               Jul-08
                                                                                        Oct-08




                                                                                                                   Jul-09
                                                                                                                            Oct-09




                                                                                                                                                       Jul-10
                                                                                                                                                                Oct-10
                                                                                                                                                                         Jan-11


                                                                                                                                                                                           Jul-11
 -10
Source: Uganda Bureau of Statistics

The rise in the price of oil has also been one of the reasons for the hike in prices as it has increased
the domestic costs of production.

Citing the supply side pressures in the second half of the year, the central bank was forced to tighten
its monetary policy in the second half of the year. This tightened monetary policy was followed by
the central bank engaging in open market operations by selling of government bonds and bills. The
stock of treasury bills and bonds, which are the main instruments of monetary policy increased from
Shs.1, 414.4 billion and Shs.1,563.9 billion in June 2010 to Shs.1,696.1 billion and Shs.2,324.4 billion,
respectively in June 2011. Thus, the net withdrawal of liquidity from the system in 2010/11 on
account of Treasury bills and bonds approximately amounted to Shs.108.3 billion and Shs.874.0
billion, respectively.

The contractionary monetary policy stance, as expected, led to an increase in the yields of treasury
bills and bonds. The average monthly yields to maturity for the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day
Treasury bills rose to 12.7 percent, 13.3 percent and 13.8 percent, respectively from 4.4 percent, 5.7
percent and 7.4 percent in June 2010.

In Uganda’s case, since it has been the external supply disruptions that have led to an increase in the
prices, the tightening monetary policy is only going to have limited impact. However, it is important
for the monetary policy to prevent supply side shocks to food prices being percolated to the non
food prices. It is important that the monetary policy causes a disinflation of non-food prices, so that
when the supplies improve, the inflation comes back to the target level. On the contrary, in case the
non- food prices are not curtailed, the inflationary pressure will become deep rooted and high prices
are likely to persist, despite an improvement in the level of supplies.

Apart from the supply side, some blame of rising inflation has to go to the Bank of Uganda itself.
High fuel and commodity prices had an impact on inflation worldwide, but it was exacerbated in
Uganda, courtesy of the Bank of Uganda following an expansionary monetary policy stance for most
part of 2010. Between January and December 2010, the currency in circulation increased from 1% to
32%.

Another contributing factor was a supplementary budget of $300m approved by parliament for
Musaveni’s political campaign during the elections. However, during the time of election, large
number of foreign firms scaled back production in fear of large scale violence, resulting in decreased
supply of goods and market overloaded with cash.

The second major macroeconomic problem has been the sharp depreciation in the Ugandan
Schilling. The Ugandan shilling depreciated by 14.5 percent against the US dollar to an annual
average exchange rate of Shs.2,323.4/US$ from Shs.2,028.9 percent recorded in 2009/10. The prime
reason for the depreciation has been a weakening balance of payment account for Uganda. The
balance of payments recorded a deficit of US$ 581.4 million in 2010/11 from the surplus position of
US$ 210.9 million registered in 2009/10 mainly on account of the worsening current balance and a
decline in the capital and financial account surplus.


                         Index of the Ugandan Currency against the US dollar: June 2007-July 2011(2008=100)
                   155

                   145

                   135

                   125
   Index (Units)




                   115

                   105

                    95

                    85

                    75
                                  Apr-07




                                                                      Apr-08




                                                                                                          Apr-09




                                                                                                                                              Apr-10




                                                                                                                                                                                  Apr-11
                         Jan-07




                                                             Jan-08




                                                                                                                                     Jan-10




                                                                                                                                                                         Jan-11
                                           Jul-07

                                                    Oct-07




                                                                               Jul-08

                                                                                        Oct-08

                                                                                                 Jan-09



                                                                                                                   Jul-09

                                                                                                                            Oct-09




                                                                                                                                                       Jul-10

                                                                                                                                                                Oct-10




                                                                                                                                                                                           Jul-11




                                                                                                      Months

Source: Bank of Uganda

The current account has deteriorated on account of the sharp rise in the import bill as compared to
the export growth. Uganda’s demand for imports increased strongly with the recovery of economic
growth from the global crisis. Uganda’s trading partners like the EU, Japan, South Africa, particularly
those countries from which Uganda imports more than exports, the depreciation against all these
currencies implied a rise in the import costs. Rising international oil and commodity prices for most
of the last year, led to large sectors of the Ugandan economy increasing their demand for foreign
currencies, in order to meet their import bill.
Imports increased from $3.5 billion in 2007/08 to $4.6 billion in 2010/11, an increase of $1.1 billion.
In contrast, exports only increased from $2.1 billion to $2.3 billion, an increase of $0.2 billion. As a
result the trade deficit widened from $1,437 million in 2007/08 to $2,285 million in 2010/11. One
more reason for the widening trade deficit was the slow growth in export earnings. Uganda’s major
export good is coffee and due to droughts in the robust-growing areas during the bean development
stage, the prices never recovered and rose as it did for certain other commodities. Exports have also
been depressed due to the slow growth of the destination countries particularly the EU.


 Current Account
 USDbn                             2008       2009       2010       2011f       2012f
 Goods                             -1.3       -0.8       -1.6       -1.9        -1.8
 Exports                           2.7        3          2.6        2.9         3.6
 Imports                           4          3.8        4.2        4.8         5.4

 Services                          -0.5       -0.5       -0.7       -0.7        -0.7
 Credit                            0.8        1          0.9        0.9         1
 Debit                             1.3        1.4        1.6        1.6         1.7

 Income                            -0.2       -0.3       -0.3       -0.4        -0.3
 Credit                            0.1        0          0          0           0.1
 Debit                             0.4        0.4        0.4        0.4         0.4

 Current transfers                 1.2        1.1        1          1.1         1.1
 Credit                            1.6        1.5        1.5        1.5         1.6
 Debit                             0.3        0.4        0.5        0.4         0.4

 Current account                  -0.8         -0.5      -1.7       -1.9        -1.7
 Current account (% of GDP)       -4.8         -2.7      -9.6       -10.1       -7.9
Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics



Uncertainty surrounding the elections also played a role in driving down the schilling as investors
frantically started to buy up dollars. Capital inflows that bring in US dollars and FDI were seen on a
decline.

Another reason for the decline of the schilling against the dollar was the negative market sentiment.
Along with the rising oil prices, major concerns over fiscal sustainability in the Euro zone and the
slowdown of the US economy sent investors into asset allocation shifts, as the investors rushed into
safe havens for protection of their investment. Less inbound tourism also brought about a deficit in
services trade and reduced transfers in connection with foreign budget support also contributed to
it. This, in fact is something that could have detrimental consequences for the Ugandan economy.
Around 30% of the annual budget of Uganda comes from the foreign donors, and it has played a
large role in the economic development of Uganda over the years. If the global recovery is slow, and
this remittance is reduced, it could be disastrous for Uganda as many of its projects in the pipeline
particularly the National Development plan will be halted. Donor fatigue is now widely becoming a
concern for the Ugandan economy.
REMEDIES TO UGANDA’S MACROECONOMIC PROBLEMS

The first macroeconomic problem of inflation is a problem that has surfaced to extreme degrees
only in the past year. For the past 15 years, the inflation has more or less seen a downward trend
and stabilising around the 6.5-7% mark. However, in the past year, it has shot up to nearly 15%.


                                              Rise in Prices
            260.00
            240.00
            220.00
            200.00
            180.00
            160.00
            140.00
            120.00
            100.00
                         Jan       Feb       Mar       Apr       May       June      July      Aug          Sep
          CPI           151.20   153.82    160.25    164.96     166.81    166.94    170.84    175.50    187.34
          Food Prices   179.53   182.99    204.72    216.57     218.86    213.37    219.89    225.30    244.18

Source: Uganda Bureau of Statistics

As evident by the diagram, the hike has mostly been driven by the increase in the food price levels.
This clearly shows that inflation in Uganda has been driven by the supply side. In such a situation,
the priority of the government should be to increase the supply situation by increasing the
availability of food grains.

Agriculture, which employs more than 70% of Uganda’s population, contributes only 22% to the
GDP. Over the past five years, the agricultural growth has seen a declining trend from 13% to 6%.
This sector is also one of the under-invested sectors by the foreign donors. It is also one of the
sectors that receive low private sector credit. Its share in total private sector credit was 6.50 in June
2011 as compared to 14.12 for the manufacturing sector. Thus, the starting point to improve the
supply side situation would be to improve the productivity levels in agriculture.

Firstly, the government needs to look into those areas, which are still under-exploited. The case in
point being processed foods and vegetables. Perishable farm produce are wasted or sold at
throwaway prices during the peak seasons due to poor post harvest storage facilities and lack of
effective processing techniques, leading to less than optimum level production and low capacity
utilisation. This situation is present despite Uganda having the desired raw materials, equipment and
labour available to carry out the task.

There are viable agricultural opportunities available in pepper, aloe vera, large scale production of
fresh water fish, vegetables and fruits etc. The direct investment, though on a continued rise in
Uganda over the years, can be opened up more to look into this. This is a major requirement if
improved efficiency and diversification of the sector is desired.

 For increased production, the government can provide for incentives for labour to increase
production. This incentive can be provided in the form of tax cuts, which viewed positively by the
labour force will result in an increased output from them. Small steps have been taken in this
direction with rolling out of E tax.
An increase in the supply levels in the long run will lead to increased income for the country as
supplemented by the diagram.




However, measures to increase the supply will only show the results in long-term. In the short run,
in order to make sure that the food inflation doesn’t get generalised and induce inflation in other
sectors of the economy, some moderation of liquidity may be required. Tightening of monetary
policy may be required and the same was followed by the Bank of Uganda in the second half of
2010-11. A decline in the money supply will cause a leftward shift of the LM curve and subsequently
of the demand curve. This contractionary monetary policy can be achieved by an increase in CRR or
the repo rates or sale of open bonds in the market, the method that is being employed by the Bank
of Uganda.

The second major macroeconomic problem faced by Uganda is the sharp fall in its currency. Over
the past year, the Ugandan schilling has slumped 18% against the US dollar, making it the worst
performing currency.

To deal with this problem of sharp depreciation, the Bank of Uganda will need to engage in a
contractionary monetary policy. However, to meet the inflation target of 5% by 2013, the cuts to the
money supply must be accompanied by strong fiscal measures. Both agriculture and the
manufacturing sector need to be strongly supported, so that the local products become more
competitive and the exports can bring in the much needed foreign currency.

The procedure of how a contractionary monetary policy will lead to an appreciation of the currency
and help in curbing inflation is detailed below. However, at present these are also the steps that
have been taken by the Bank of Uganda, some of which aspects were presented earlier in the report.
The bank has already injected a significant amount in excess of $50mn to support the falling
schilling.
Uganda, being a small economy, we don’t expect its change in policies, to have a significant impact
on the world interest rates. As a result, the LM curve has been taken of a vertical shape parallel to
the y axis. Faced with high inflation and sharp depreciation of the currency, the country should
engage in a contractionary monetary policy. This contractionary monetary policy can be brought
about by an increase in the cash reserve ratio or the repo rates or the bank rates. Increase in either
of these ratios will restrict the supply of funds from the Bank of Uganda to the various central banks
available. With less money in hand, the commercial banks will be able to lend less, and as a result,
there will be a withdrawal of liquidity from the system, causing a leftward shift of the money supply
curve and consequently of that of the LM curve. A leftward shift of the money supply curve will shift
the interest rate up from R0 to R1. This increase in interest rate will help in fighting the inflationary
situation present in Uganda, so that the food inflation doesn’t spiral off to other sectors of the
economy. At the same time, an increase or appreciation of the currency will bring in the much
needed foreign currency into the country. These capital inflows into the country will help in building
up the foreign reserves of the country, which at present can only finance for four months of
Uganda’s import. In the short run, this, we believe is the policy that the Bank of Uganda should
follow.

However, development in the agriculture and manufacturing sector, as suggested earlier should
have to be supplemented along with this, because there in lies the long run solution to Uganda’s
problems.
LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES

1.    Bar Graph on Real GDP growth from 2006-2011
2.    Table on Public Finances as a % of GDP from 2006-2011
3.    Line Graph on CPI from 2007-2011
4.    Table on Current A/c as a part of GDP from 2007-2011
5.    Line Graph on Industrial Production Growth Rate from 2006-2010
6.    Line Graph Comparison of Food and Non Food Prices
7.    Line Graph on the Index of the Ugandan schilling against the US dollar
8.    Table on break-up of Current A/c from 2008-2012
9.    Line Graph on CPI and food prices for the current year



REFERENCES

1.    BANK OF UGANDA MONTHLY, QUARTERLY AND ANNUAL REPORTS
2.    D&B COUNTRY REPORT
3.    AICO AFRICA ANNUAL REPORT 2011
4.    IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DATABASE
5.    WWW.BUSINESSINUGANDA.COM
6.    ECONSTATS
7.    DOING BUSINES: THE WORLD BANK
8.    UGANDA BUREAU OF STATISTICS
9.    CIA WORLD FACTBOOK
10.   AFRICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK

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A Macroeconomic Report on Uganda

  • 1. MACROECONOMICS A Macroeconomic Country Report On UGANDA By: Dhruba Jyoti Chatterjee (11C) Hasan Nayar (16C) Jasmit Singh Chawla (19C) Kapish Kaushal (20C) Shashwat Sinha (41C) Surjodeb Sarkar (44C)
  • 2. INTRODUCTION Uganda which is also known as ‘Pearl of Africa’ is located in east Africa and shares its border with Congo and Tanzania, South Sudan and Kenya. It follows a presidential democracy political system with Yoweri K. Museveni from the ruling coalition National Resistance Movement (NRM) as its current head of state. Apart from the NRM, other parties include Forum for Democratic Change (FDC), Uganda People’s Congress (UPC) and The Democratic Party (DP). Its capital is Kampala and its official languages include English and Swahili. The local currency of Uganda is shilling. Uganda gained independence in 1962 from the British Empire and the first parliamentary elections were held in 1962. Milton Obote was the first Prime Minister of Uganda and was over thrown by Idi Amin after a military coup in 1971. Idi Amin’s dictatorial rule lasted 8 years during which he carried our mass killings. Milton Obote retuned to power in 1979 after the Uganda-Tanzania War when Idi Amin was overthrown. General Tito Okello came into power in 1985 and ruled for six months after which he was replaced by Yoweri K. Museveni after the bush war. Museveni has been in power since 1986. Uganda has large natural resources and mineral deposits. It also has large untapped reserves of crude oil and with the latest discovery of oil in Lake Albert, Uganda is poised for growth. Uganda’s economy largely depends on the services sector like telecommunication, financial service and construction which accounted for 52% of the GDP as of 2010. Other sectors which contribute to the GDP include Industry contributing 26.5% and Agriculture which contributes 22.5%. Uganda’s major produce include coffee, tea, cotton and tobacco. Uganda’s economy is growing at 5.1% per year as of 2010. Uganda’s primary exports include Coffee, Fish products, Tobacco and Tea and its major export markets are EU Countries, Sudan, UAE, Netherlands and Kenya. Uganda’s major imports include machinery and equipment, petroleum products, Food and beverages and chemicals related products and its main import sources are EU countries, Kenya, UAE, India and China. About 30% of Uganda’s population had HIV in 1980. This figure has fallen to 6% as of date and efforts to eradicate it continue making Uganda one of the rare success stories with respect to AIDS in Africa. A policy to remove user fee at state health facility has also been implemented since 2001 and has helped in this cause.
  • 3. A large portion on Uganda's population is Illiterate with only 3.2% of GDP being spent on education. More than 6 million pupils attend schools as of 2011. Almost 70000 students leave school for higher education every year but. Only 35% of them are accommodated in higher institutions. Education is very important for Uganda's sustenance and growth in future. The Lord’s Resistance Army lead by Joseph Kony is the primary rebel group in Uganda. The LRA has been accused of conducting mass human rights violations in Uganda including murder, abduction, forcing children into hostilities and sexual enslavement. Uganda along with aid from the United States of America continues to fight the LRA. Uganda has strong bilateral ties with the US and EU countries. It also maintains ties with radical states like North Korea and Iran. Apart from its international relations, Uganda also relies on IMF and World Bank as a source of aid. However, recently Uganda’s relation with EU countries has been strained with a part of the aid being withheld due to corruption charges on the Ugandan government. Uganda’s economy has good growth potential and the recent viable oil reserve discovery can enable Uganda to become an oil exporter in the long run. It will also attract investment and fulfil its own energy needs. However, there are numerous challenges which pose a threat to the growth of Uganda’s economy and stability with problem areas like limited productivity in the recent years, over dependence on agriculture, corruption and lack of governance.
  • 4. UGANDA - Country Profile Country Uganda Country population (m) 32.7 Capital Kampala Official language English GMT +2 Presidential Time zone of capital Political system hours democracy Surface area (sq km) 2,36,040 Head of state Yoweri K. Museveni GDP (%) 5.2 GNP (%) 5.7 Top 3 export goods (% of total Top 3 import goods (% of total exports) imports) Coffee 16.8 Machinery & equipment 30.3 Fish & fish products 8.4 Petroleum products 14.5 Tobacco 4.9 Food, beverages & tobacco 13.3 Top 3 export markets (% of total Top 3 import sources (% of total exports) imports) EU 31.3 EU 20.3 Sudan 14.2 Kenya 15.6 UAE 10.2 UAE 14.8 MACROECONOMIC PERFORMANCE IN THE RECENT PAST With democracy in place, Uganda has taken a step towards economic rehabilitation and development in the past two decades. There has been a focus on rebuilding the infrastructure, primarily the transportation and communications that were destroyed by war and neglect. Uganda has benefited significantly from the support it has received from the IMF and the World Bank, with almost all its foreign debts being forgiven under the Heavily Indebted Poor Countries Initiative (HIPC). Consequently, it has emerged as one of the fastest growing economies in the last five years. (Nominal GDP, 2010: 17.7 Billion USD; GDP (PPP): 42.2 Billion USD). However, the Ugandan Economy contracted sharply in the years 2009 and 2010, following the global recession, which led to a weak external demand for traditional exports (particularly coffee) and a drop in aggregate demand. Real GDP Growth (%age) (2006-2011) 12 10.4 10 8.1 8 7.1 5.7 5.6 6 4.9 4 2 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (E) Source : IMF and Local Authorities' Data; Estimations used for 2011 data With a median age of 15 years, Uganda boasts of one of the youngest populations in the world. The current estimated population is close to 35 million. Its population growth rate is 3.5%, way above
  • 5. the global rate of 1.2%. While the growing population is expected to create a favourable demographic profile in terms of growth and development, it is becoming increasingly difficult to create jobs at the same rate. As per the labour flow figures at Uganda Investment Authority and the Uganda Bureau of Statistics, more than 4,00,000 Ugandans enter the labour market every year; only about 1,13,000 are absorbed in formal employment. While the unemployment rate is 3.5%, the youth unemployment rate is close to 32%. In case of University Graduates, this figure goes upto 36%. The recent discovery of oil reserves has renewed hope amongst the Ugandan youth about the economic prospects, though it also raises concerns about possible cases of corruption, considering the case of many other African nations. While the Government’s decision to “invest in young people” by making it a fundamental social obligation in Uganda’s Poverty Eradication Action Plan is appreciable, there is still a lot of ground to cover. The Government has maintained an expansionary fiscal policy aiming to achieve strong real GDP growth of 7% or more, its impact has been weakened by under-execution of the capital budget. However, the total expenditure is expected to go up as per the National Development Plan. Uganda continues to be a largely untaxed economy (especially in the agricultural sector). Moreover, ill- defined exemption norms and loopholes in the current tax legislation have also eroded the tax base. Hence, there has been a decline in the total revenue collection and grants. Table: Public Finances (As % of GDP) 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(E) Total Revenues 18.5 16.3 15.4 14.9 13.9 Taxes and Grants Grants 12.8 13.2 12.5 12.1 11.5 5.1 3 2.8 2.7 2.3 Current Total Expenditure 19.9 15.9 15.3 16.7 16.4 Expenditure 12.2 10.7 10 9.6 9.6 Capital Expenditure 7.2 5.9 5.5 7.2 6.6 Overall Balance -1.4 0.4 0.1 -1.5 -2.5 Source: Uganda Bureau of Statistics and Bank of Uganda The Bank of Uganda is responsible for managing the monetary policy in the country. Its primary objective is to control inflation, besides maintaining stability in the domestic financial markets and foreign exchange markets. The monetary policy stance is to restrict inflation to 5%. However, the inflation figures leaped beyond 13% in the year 2009, mainly because of the following reasons: a. Presence of pirates in the Indian Ocean, break-downs in the Mombasa Oil refineries and new transportation/trade regulations pushed the fuel prices up. b. Natural disasters, including floods and landslides, led to an increase in food prices. Favourable weather conditions and improved food production helped reduce the food prices and hence, the inflationary pressure dropped to 7.3% in the year 2010. However, the inflation figures this year have gone through the roof; the Annual Headline Inflation Rate for the year ending
  • 6. November 2011 read 29%, which is actually a shade lower than the figure of 30.4% noted last month. This can be explained in light of the expansionary monetary policy followed by the BOU in the year 2010 and early 2011. With an eye on the promotion of domestic investment, the BOU reduced the interest rates. The BOU allowed the Central Government to draw its savings and increasingly borrow from it during 2010 and early 2011. This led to an increased circulation of currency in the market. With the prices of crude oil moving up again and the shortage in the food production, inflation was all but an expected outcome. CPI Inflation (2007-2011) 40 30 29 20 12 13.4 10 6.4 7.3 0 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 (Nov) Source: African Economic Outlook Uganda has operated a flexible exchange rate since the early 1990’s, occasionally intervening in the foreign exchange market to contain volatility. This has been done to maintain an appropriate level of international reserves to cushion against external shocks and maintain competitiveness in the export market. However, being a small open economy, it was impossible to remain unaffected by the adverse affects of the global financial crisis of 2008. The sloppy growth in exports, capital inflows and foreign direct investment against the rising demand for foreign currency and imports has led to a steady depreciation of the Ugandan shilling since 2009. The value of the Ugandan Shilling stands at 2400 units per US Dollar, a slight improvement from the all-time low of 2900 units per US Dollar in September earlier this year. The Ugandan media has reacted strongly to the “impending economic crisis”, comparing the current scenario to that of Zimbabwe. The export receipts as a %age of GDP has been declining in recent years. The imports are growing at a faster rate than the exports, a trend that is likely to continue. Therefore, the current account balance is expected to deteriorate in the near future. Capital inflows in the form of FDI and official loans have more than financed the current account deficit in the past, creating a surplus in the balance of payments. This channel has dried as a direct consequence of the global financial crisis of 2008. With another crisis developing in the European region, the mood is unlikely to change, the depreciating shilling being an indication. Table: Current Account (As %age of GDP): Exports of 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011(E) Goods (FOB) 11.1 15.9 16.7 15.6 14.9 Imports of Goods (FOB) 18.4 21.4 24.1 24.7 25.3 Trade -7.3 -5.6 -7.4 -9.1 -10.5 Balance Source: Uganda Bureau of Statistics and Bank of Uganda
  • 7. The industrial sector is growing as a consequence of the infrastructure development activities in the country, as can be seen by the growth in products used in construction, such as cement, bricks, paint and metallic products. The unstable and inconsistent supply of electricity continues to hamper industrial growth, especially in extractive industries such as mining and crude oil. The monthly trend in the volume of goods produced by the manufacturing sector in Uganda is measured in terms of Index of Production (IoP). This index is based on 2002 prices and is a result of the compilation of data from nearly 200 business establishments. In the current index, the Food Processing Group, Beverages and Tobacco, Chemicals, Paint and Foam Products have been given the highest weights. Industrial Production Growth rate (2006-2010) 8 7 6 5.8 6 5.2 4 2 0.7 0 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 Source: CIA World Factbook, 2011 MACROECONOMIC DIFFICULTIES FACED BY UGANDA The most severe macro-economic problem faced by Uganda has been the surge in inflation during the past 18 months. Headline and core inflation increased sharply from 4.2% and 4.6% respectively, in June 2010 to 15.7 % and 12.2% in June 2011. Recovering from the global crisis, the macroeconomic policy objective in 2010-11 was to accelerate economic growth and create employment. To achieve this task, the priorities were focused on expansion of economic infrastructure and increasing domestic production. Thus the Bank of Uganda’s target was to keep the core inflation below 5%, thereby not constraining the growth of the country in a big manner. In response to the weakening economic situation following the global crisis, there was an expansionary monetary policy followed in the first half of the year. This was to help in boosting aggregate demand of the economy. However, it was in the second half of the year, that the food prices saw a rise due to supply shocks to production, most notably the droughts in both Uganda and its East African neighbours. The prolonged drought affected most of the food producing regions of the country. Food accounts for 27.2 percent of the overall Ugandan consumer basket of goods and services. Annual food price inflation increased to 33.4 percent in June 2011. Inflation of non-food items, which account for the remaining 73.8 percent of the consumer basket, was much more moderate, although it has edged up in recent months to 7.9 percent in June 2011.
  • 8. 60 50 40 30 Food Prices Non Food Prices 20 10 0 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jul-06 Oct-06 Jan-07 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 -10 Source: Uganda Bureau of Statistics The rise in the price of oil has also been one of the reasons for the hike in prices as it has increased the domestic costs of production. Citing the supply side pressures in the second half of the year, the central bank was forced to tighten its monetary policy in the second half of the year. This tightened monetary policy was followed by the central bank engaging in open market operations by selling of government bonds and bills. The stock of treasury bills and bonds, which are the main instruments of monetary policy increased from Shs.1, 414.4 billion and Shs.1,563.9 billion in June 2010 to Shs.1,696.1 billion and Shs.2,324.4 billion, respectively in June 2011. Thus, the net withdrawal of liquidity from the system in 2010/11 on account of Treasury bills and bonds approximately amounted to Shs.108.3 billion and Shs.874.0 billion, respectively. The contractionary monetary policy stance, as expected, led to an increase in the yields of treasury bills and bonds. The average monthly yields to maturity for the 91-day, 182-day and 364-day Treasury bills rose to 12.7 percent, 13.3 percent and 13.8 percent, respectively from 4.4 percent, 5.7 percent and 7.4 percent in June 2010. In Uganda’s case, since it has been the external supply disruptions that have led to an increase in the prices, the tightening monetary policy is only going to have limited impact. However, it is important for the monetary policy to prevent supply side shocks to food prices being percolated to the non food prices. It is important that the monetary policy causes a disinflation of non-food prices, so that when the supplies improve, the inflation comes back to the target level. On the contrary, in case the
  • 9. non- food prices are not curtailed, the inflationary pressure will become deep rooted and high prices are likely to persist, despite an improvement in the level of supplies. Apart from the supply side, some blame of rising inflation has to go to the Bank of Uganda itself. High fuel and commodity prices had an impact on inflation worldwide, but it was exacerbated in Uganda, courtesy of the Bank of Uganda following an expansionary monetary policy stance for most part of 2010. Between January and December 2010, the currency in circulation increased from 1% to 32%. Another contributing factor was a supplementary budget of $300m approved by parliament for Musaveni’s political campaign during the elections. However, during the time of election, large number of foreign firms scaled back production in fear of large scale violence, resulting in decreased supply of goods and market overloaded with cash. The second major macroeconomic problem has been the sharp depreciation in the Ugandan Schilling. The Ugandan shilling depreciated by 14.5 percent against the US dollar to an annual average exchange rate of Shs.2,323.4/US$ from Shs.2,028.9 percent recorded in 2009/10. The prime reason for the depreciation has been a weakening balance of payment account for Uganda. The balance of payments recorded a deficit of US$ 581.4 million in 2010/11 from the surplus position of US$ 210.9 million registered in 2009/10 mainly on account of the worsening current balance and a decline in the capital and financial account surplus. Index of the Ugandan Currency against the US dollar: June 2007-July 2011(2008=100) 155 145 135 125 Index (Units) 115 105 95 85 75 Apr-07 Apr-08 Apr-09 Apr-10 Apr-11 Jan-07 Jan-08 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jul-07 Oct-07 Jul-08 Oct-08 Jan-09 Jul-09 Oct-09 Jul-10 Oct-10 Jul-11 Months Source: Bank of Uganda The current account has deteriorated on account of the sharp rise in the import bill as compared to the export growth. Uganda’s demand for imports increased strongly with the recovery of economic growth from the global crisis. Uganda’s trading partners like the EU, Japan, South Africa, particularly those countries from which Uganda imports more than exports, the depreciation against all these currencies implied a rise in the import costs. Rising international oil and commodity prices for most of the last year, led to large sectors of the Ugandan economy increasing their demand for foreign currencies, in order to meet their import bill.
  • 10. Imports increased from $3.5 billion in 2007/08 to $4.6 billion in 2010/11, an increase of $1.1 billion. In contrast, exports only increased from $2.1 billion to $2.3 billion, an increase of $0.2 billion. As a result the trade deficit widened from $1,437 million in 2007/08 to $2,285 million in 2010/11. One more reason for the widening trade deficit was the slow growth in export earnings. Uganda’s major export good is coffee and due to droughts in the robust-growing areas during the bean development stage, the prices never recovered and rose as it did for certain other commodities. Exports have also been depressed due to the slow growth of the destination countries particularly the EU. Current Account USDbn 2008 2009 2010 2011f 2012f Goods -1.3 -0.8 -1.6 -1.9 -1.8 Exports 2.7 3 2.6 2.9 3.6 Imports 4 3.8 4.2 4.8 5.4 Services -0.5 -0.5 -0.7 -0.7 -0.7 Credit 0.8 1 0.9 0.9 1 Debit 1.3 1.4 1.6 1.6 1.7 Income -0.2 -0.3 -0.3 -0.4 -0.3 Credit 0.1 0 0 0 0.1 Debit 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.4 Current transfers 1.2 1.1 1 1.1 1.1 Credit 1.6 1.5 1.5 1.5 1.6 Debit 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.4 Current account -0.8 -0.5 -1.7 -1.9 -1.7 Current account (% of GDP) -4.8 -2.7 -9.6 -10.1 -7.9 Source: IMF, International Financial Statistics Uncertainty surrounding the elections also played a role in driving down the schilling as investors frantically started to buy up dollars. Capital inflows that bring in US dollars and FDI were seen on a decline. Another reason for the decline of the schilling against the dollar was the negative market sentiment. Along with the rising oil prices, major concerns over fiscal sustainability in the Euro zone and the slowdown of the US economy sent investors into asset allocation shifts, as the investors rushed into safe havens for protection of their investment. Less inbound tourism also brought about a deficit in services trade and reduced transfers in connection with foreign budget support also contributed to it. This, in fact is something that could have detrimental consequences for the Ugandan economy. Around 30% of the annual budget of Uganda comes from the foreign donors, and it has played a large role in the economic development of Uganda over the years. If the global recovery is slow, and this remittance is reduced, it could be disastrous for Uganda as many of its projects in the pipeline particularly the National Development plan will be halted. Donor fatigue is now widely becoming a concern for the Ugandan economy.
  • 11. REMEDIES TO UGANDA’S MACROECONOMIC PROBLEMS The first macroeconomic problem of inflation is a problem that has surfaced to extreme degrees only in the past year. For the past 15 years, the inflation has more or less seen a downward trend and stabilising around the 6.5-7% mark. However, in the past year, it has shot up to nearly 15%. Rise in Prices 260.00 240.00 220.00 200.00 180.00 160.00 140.00 120.00 100.00 Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sep CPI 151.20 153.82 160.25 164.96 166.81 166.94 170.84 175.50 187.34 Food Prices 179.53 182.99 204.72 216.57 218.86 213.37 219.89 225.30 244.18 Source: Uganda Bureau of Statistics As evident by the diagram, the hike has mostly been driven by the increase in the food price levels. This clearly shows that inflation in Uganda has been driven by the supply side. In such a situation, the priority of the government should be to increase the supply situation by increasing the availability of food grains. Agriculture, which employs more than 70% of Uganda’s population, contributes only 22% to the GDP. Over the past five years, the agricultural growth has seen a declining trend from 13% to 6%. This sector is also one of the under-invested sectors by the foreign donors. It is also one of the sectors that receive low private sector credit. Its share in total private sector credit was 6.50 in June 2011 as compared to 14.12 for the manufacturing sector. Thus, the starting point to improve the supply side situation would be to improve the productivity levels in agriculture. Firstly, the government needs to look into those areas, which are still under-exploited. The case in point being processed foods and vegetables. Perishable farm produce are wasted or sold at throwaway prices during the peak seasons due to poor post harvest storage facilities and lack of effective processing techniques, leading to less than optimum level production and low capacity utilisation. This situation is present despite Uganda having the desired raw materials, equipment and labour available to carry out the task. There are viable agricultural opportunities available in pepper, aloe vera, large scale production of fresh water fish, vegetables and fruits etc. The direct investment, though on a continued rise in Uganda over the years, can be opened up more to look into this. This is a major requirement if improved efficiency and diversification of the sector is desired. For increased production, the government can provide for incentives for labour to increase production. This incentive can be provided in the form of tax cuts, which viewed positively by the labour force will result in an increased output from them. Small steps have been taken in this direction with rolling out of E tax.
  • 12. An increase in the supply levels in the long run will lead to increased income for the country as supplemented by the diagram. However, measures to increase the supply will only show the results in long-term. In the short run, in order to make sure that the food inflation doesn’t get generalised and induce inflation in other sectors of the economy, some moderation of liquidity may be required. Tightening of monetary policy may be required and the same was followed by the Bank of Uganda in the second half of 2010-11. A decline in the money supply will cause a leftward shift of the LM curve and subsequently of the demand curve. This contractionary monetary policy can be achieved by an increase in CRR or the repo rates or sale of open bonds in the market, the method that is being employed by the Bank of Uganda. The second major macroeconomic problem faced by Uganda is the sharp fall in its currency. Over the past year, the Ugandan schilling has slumped 18% against the US dollar, making it the worst performing currency. To deal with this problem of sharp depreciation, the Bank of Uganda will need to engage in a contractionary monetary policy. However, to meet the inflation target of 5% by 2013, the cuts to the money supply must be accompanied by strong fiscal measures. Both agriculture and the manufacturing sector need to be strongly supported, so that the local products become more competitive and the exports can bring in the much needed foreign currency. The procedure of how a contractionary monetary policy will lead to an appreciation of the currency and help in curbing inflation is detailed below. However, at present these are also the steps that have been taken by the Bank of Uganda, some of which aspects were presented earlier in the report. The bank has already injected a significant amount in excess of $50mn to support the falling schilling.
  • 13. Uganda, being a small economy, we don’t expect its change in policies, to have a significant impact on the world interest rates. As a result, the LM curve has been taken of a vertical shape parallel to the y axis. Faced with high inflation and sharp depreciation of the currency, the country should engage in a contractionary monetary policy. This contractionary monetary policy can be brought about by an increase in the cash reserve ratio or the repo rates or the bank rates. Increase in either of these ratios will restrict the supply of funds from the Bank of Uganda to the various central banks available. With less money in hand, the commercial banks will be able to lend less, and as a result, there will be a withdrawal of liquidity from the system, causing a leftward shift of the money supply curve and consequently of that of the LM curve. A leftward shift of the money supply curve will shift the interest rate up from R0 to R1. This increase in interest rate will help in fighting the inflationary
  • 14. situation present in Uganda, so that the food inflation doesn’t spiral off to other sectors of the economy. At the same time, an increase or appreciation of the currency will bring in the much needed foreign currency into the country. These capital inflows into the country will help in building up the foreign reserves of the country, which at present can only finance for four months of Uganda’s import. In the short run, this, we believe is the policy that the Bank of Uganda should follow. However, development in the agriculture and manufacturing sector, as suggested earlier should have to be supplemented along with this, because there in lies the long run solution to Uganda’s problems.
  • 15. LIST OF TABLES AND FIGURES 1. Bar Graph on Real GDP growth from 2006-2011 2. Table on Public Finances as a % of GDP from 2006-2011 3. Line Graph on CPI from 2007-2011 4. Table on Current A/c as a part of GDP from 2007-2011 5. Line Graph on Industrial Production Growth Rate from 2006-2010 6. Line Graph Comparison of Food and Non Food Prices 7. Line Graph on the Index of the Ugandan schilling against the US dollar 8. Table on break-up of Current A/c from 2008-2012 9. Line Graph on CPI and food prices for the current year REFERENCES 1. BANK OF UGANDA MONTHLY, QUARTERLY AND ANNUAL REPORTS 2. D&B COUNTRY REPORT 3. AICO AFRICA ANNUAL REPORT 2011 4. IMF WORLD ECONOMIC OUTLOOK DATABASE 5. WWW.BUSINESSINUGANDA.COM 6. ECONSTATS 7. DOING BUSINES: THE WORLD BANK 8. UGANDA BUREAU OF STATISTICS 9. CIA WORLD FACTBOOK 10. AFRICAN ECONOMIC OUTLOOK