An introduction to Capital Economics consultancy division
1. An introduction to Capital Economics consultancy
division
Economics Consultancy – bespoke research and economic insight
2. Registered in England, Registration No. 2484735.
VAT No. GB 198 2919 50. TORONTO NEW YORK LONDON SINGAPORE SYDNEY
Jason Layland
+44 (0)20 3750 0993
Jason.layland@capitaleconomics.com
Capital Economics Limited
5th Floor, 100 Victoria Street,
Cardinal Place
London
SW1E 5JL
4. Capital Economics overview
• Founded in 1999
• 1500 clients
• Global economic research
• Offices in Toronto, London, New York, Singapore & Sydney
• Over 50 in house economists
• Multiple awards won
• Forecasting often challenges orthodox views
• Regular publications provided to subscribers
• Bespoke service – Economic consultancy
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5. Economics consultancy
• Bespoke insight, research and reports
• Dedicated team of seven economists
• Renowned for our independent professional reputation
• Big economic picture analysis for any business issues
• Improve your business planning and forecasting for future possible
events
• Greater leverage in your industry sector
• Enhanced influence of policy makers and better public relations
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We have assembled a
team of economists with
unrivalled experience
and expertise to cover
an extensive range of
topics
6. Consultative approach
• Understanding your organisation
• What are your current challenges or concerns?
• How can your organisation and industry reputation be further
enhanced?
• What are the economic consequences of proposed policy or
regulation changes?
• Tailoring our work to fit your project requirements
• Unafraid to challenge orthodox views
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7. Business in strict confidence
Dedicated consultancy team delivers bespoke research
for major clients
The consultancy projects team applies the skills of the Capital Economics’ team – as
economists, market analysts, commentators and strategists – to specific issues or
problems that our clients face, and delivers insightful conclusions with the same rigour,
independence and intelligence for which our subscription services are renowned.
Although based in London, the team have conducted assignments globally, including:
• We were commissioned by a major bank in Hong Kong to develop scenarios for
increased infrastructure investment in Asia, detailing the impact on capital markets
and regional economic performance
• Our study for Jersey Finance showed the Channel island is a substantial net benefit
to the United Kingdom economy, and is helping to redefine United Kingdom-Jersey
relations
• We produced comprehensive scenarios for a sovereign default in Thailand, detailing
the potential impact on the south east Asian region
• We were instructed by an international trade association to develop its house view
on the roles that gold could play in a reformed international monetary system and the
contribution it could make to the improvement of global financial architecture
• We developed scenarios for global commodity prices to assist a major international
soft drinks manufacturer, based in the Unites States, to plan their global supply chain
We have completed a
number of projects
for a broad selection of
international clients
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8. Business in strict confidence
Success with clients
We have delivered a
number of bespoke
economic projects to a
variety of clients.
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9. Business in strict confidence
Success with clients continued
Outlook for Croatia:
We were commissioned by an international consortium of investors to provide macroeconomic expertise
and support, which was considering bidding for a concession to operate the Croatian toll road network.
The consortium was looking for authoritative, robust and transparent macroeconomics forecasts that
they could use to underpin their traffic and business modelling and to better understand the conditions
and outlook for the Croatian economy.
We analysed the fundamental issues that have been holding back growth in Croatia and what needs to
be done for it to reach its growth potential. We provided long-term growth forecasts to 2050 and
assessed three scenarios, plus two further sensitivity tests.
Risk scenarios for the Canadian economy:
We conducted a major study into the risks to Canada’s economy for a Canadian housing organisation
through macroeconomic projections, forecasting and modelling. These risk scenarios were deployed in
the stress testing of their business plan.
Our scenario analysis assessed the potential impact of future economic shocks and other events on the
Canadian economy and financial system, including catastrophic events such as a major earthquake in
British Columbia or Quebec.
We provided a detailed report clearly setting out our analysis and assumptions and an Excel
spreadsheet with forecasts for macroeconomic and financial market variables.
We helped an
international consortium
of investors evaluate the
economic prospects for
Croatia and a Canadian
housing organisation
stress test their
business plan
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10. Business in strict confidence
Success with clients continued
Birmingham Airport:
Capital Economics was commissioned by Birmingham Airport to explore from a macroeconomic
perspective the case for expanded long-haul passenger air capacity at the airport as part of their
submission to the Airports Commission.
The Airports Commission was seeking evidence to better understand the ways in which aviation
connectivity contributes to the United Kingdom’s economic growth, the extent to which additional
capacity is needed and how capacity constraints may be impeding aviation connectivity for domestic
firms and residents.
We examined the case for additional long-haul passenger capacity at Birmingham Airport by analysing
the catchment areas of potential long-haul airports. Our analysis showed that demand for long-haul air
travel is strong and growing in Birmingham Airport’s catchment area, which covers not only the
Midlands, but also large parts of Wales and the South West.
Global commodity prices scenarios:
We assisted a major international food and soft drinks manufacturer plan their global supply chain with
scenarios for global commodity prices.
We provided an assessment of the current status of important global macroeconomic variables and our
forecasts for the medium-term. Our analysis focused on emerging markets and the Chinese economy in
particular, but also covered notable developments in the United States, such as expectations regarding
interest rates and the value of the dollar.
We conducted detailed analysis of the key macroeconomic drivers and how these affect the outlook on price
and availability of major commodities. We modelled multiple scenarios and provided macroeconomic and
commodity market forecasts for these. Our thorough report and Excel spreadsheet with forecasts were used
as the basis for board level business planning discussions and presentations.
We helped Birmingham
Airport assess potential
capacity for long-haul
flights and a major
international soft drinks
manufacturer plan their
global supply chain
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11. Business in strict confidence
Success with clients continued
New York based hedge fund:
We provided a hedge fund in New York with thorough analysis of events characterised by sharp jumps in
interest rates in individual countries. We assessed the causes of the interest rate moves and the impacts
on economic variables such as gross domestic product, inflation and the exchange rate.
We provided detail on market participants’ views and behaviour at the time of the interest rate event to
better understand how investors might react in the future to a significant financial deterioration in a
country.
BBSRC:
We were commissioned by the Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council to conduct a
new study assessing the impact of this emerging technology sector on the United Kingdom economy
and its growth potential.
We analysed the United Kingdom’s relative position in the global biotechnology and bioenergy market
place and examined its significance in the worldwide setting. In addition, we provided a considered view
of the most probable trajectories of future growth and the environments that underpin them.
npower:
We undertook detailed financial analysis of the profitability of energy companies and analysed the
winners and losers from environmental tariffs for npower.
Our analysis examined how profitability trends in the sector have changed over time. We considered
how challenges and opportunities varied in the market and compared the financial competitiveness of
the different sub-sectors.
We have enabled a
hedge fund to make
more informed
investment decisions,
assessed the economic
impact and growth
potential of the biotech
industry and conducted
in-depth analysis of the
energy industry in the
United Kingdom
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12. Business in strict confidence
Success with clients continued
Jersey Finance: Jersey’s value to Britain
We helped Jersey Finance persuasively make the case for the island to investors, regulators and
politicians after months of negative press in 2012.
We were commissioned to research and report upon the economic, financial and fiscal linkages between
Jersey and the United Kingdom, and to ascertain the extent to which the Channel Island is an overall
benefit or cost to its neighbour’s economy. This report combined new and innovative analysis of existing
information, statistics and research with the results from a major quantitative and qualitative research
exercise conducted among a large and representative sample of senior executives in Jersey’s financial
and related businesses.
The purpose of the exercise was to provide first order estimates of the general scale and shape of the
many ways in which the economies of Jersey and the United Kingdom are linked. Our work went further
than any previous study and, importantly, provided a thorough review of the sources and uses of assets
administered or managed by the island’s banks, funds and trustees.
Find out more at http://www.jerseyfinance.je/valuetobritain.
We helped Jersey
Finance demonstrate
Jersey’s true value to
the United Kingdom’s
economy, and help
rebalance the debate
after the revelations
over Jimmy Carr’s tax
affairs
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13. Business in strict confidence
Success with clients continued
Federation of Wholesale and Distribution: Economic contribution
We assisted the Federation of Wholesale Distributors with parliamentary dialogue, and demonstrated the
contribution of its members to the United Kingdom’s economy.
Capital Economics was commissioned to produce an independent report assessing the scale and
significance of its members’ industry. Its members carry out the wholesale distribution of food, drink and
other goods to retail and catering/food service businesses via cash and carry, delivery and the internet.
In order to assess the scale and nature of the food and drink wholesale distribution industry we
conducted an original survey of the members of the Federation of Wholesale Distributors.
Our report demonstrated the full extent of the sector’s value to the United Kingdom economy including
the activities of wholesale distributors, the supply chain that they support and the hundreds of thousands
of businesses which rely on their goods and services. Overall, over 1.1 million British jobs are supported
by the food and drink wholesale distribution sector.
EE: Mobile broadband and the United Kingdom’s economy
We delivered robust evidence for EE to use in discussions with the industry regulator, Ofcom, and to use
as part of their submission to a Department for Culture Media and Sport review
Capital Economics was commissioned by Everything Everywhere to provide an independent, realistic
and hard-headed assessment of the potential economic benefits of investment in ‘4G Long Term
Evolution (LTE)’ mobile broadband technology to the United Kingdom.
Our study showed that the introduction of 4G mobile broadband would create substantial long-term
benefits for the economy and consumers, ultimately boosting UK GDP by as much as half a percentage
point.
Our team assisted FWD
and EE with
parliamentary and
government dialogue
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14. Business in strict confidence
Success with clients continued
Shelter: Increasing investment in affordable housing
We provided Shelter with authoritative analysis for discussions with government, to support their media
campaigns and report upon the financial mechanisms that could lead to additional investment in
affordable housing.
We evaluated the current funding arrangement for social housing, critically assessed the financing
problems that exist and analysed policies that could remedy this. We provided thorough estimates of the
number of additional homes that could be built under different policies. Our report recommended a
robust package of policies with minimal impact on public finances. Our method incorporated a significant
amount of desk-research, data analysis, modelling of different policy scenarios, and a round-table event
with representatives from the financial services and housing industries.
SHOUT: Building new social rent homes
Capital Economics was commissioned by SHOUT and the National Federation of ALMOs to evaluate the
fiscal and economic impacts of additional social housing development funded in part through a larger
social housing grant programme.
We analysed the funding difficulties facing the social housing sector, evaluated the costs and benefits of
building new social homes for representative households in different regions in the United Kingdom and
modelled the impacts of a larger social housing grant programme for government finances. From our
analysis, we made a stark and clear finding: the government would achieve better value for taxpayers’
money, as well as improve the living standards of many low-income households, if it were to part fund
the delivery of 100,000 new social rent homes each year rather than continue with its existing policy.
These ground-breaking findings were published in a report and presented at a public launch event in
London on 17 June 2015, and received coverage in national press, online and in social media.
Our studies with Shelter
and SHOUT boosted
policy discussions on
affordable housing
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Business in strict
confidence
About Capital Economics
Capital Economics is a leading independent international macro-economic research consultancy,
providing research on Europe, the Middle East, United States, Canada, Africa, Asia and Australasia,
Latin America and the United Kingdom, as well as analysis of financial markets, commodities and the
consumer and property sectors.
We produce publications for world-wide distribution and offer support to clients in their respective time-
zones through our offices in London, New York, Toronto and Singapore.
In addition, we undertake bespoke research projects commissioned by companies, government
agencies, and trade associations. We have helped our clients to produce substantial and detailed
research, to present to investors and shareholders and to lobby government bodies. Our independent
reports are used to plan for the future, influence internal business decisions, and to shape public opinion.
We have the experience, the resources and the capability to meet tight deadlines and cater to the most
specific of briefs.
Our economists work closely with clients throughout all projects to ensure they are satisfied with the final
product, and that the content is clear, relevant and accessible to the target audience.
Roger Bootle, our Managing Director, has written many articles and several books on monetary
economics and broader topics. His latest book, The Trouble with Europe, analyses the options of how
Europe could better serve its people. He was formerly Group Chief Economist for a major international
banking group, HSBC. In his home country, the United Kingdom, Roger is a specialist adviser to
Parliament’s House of Commons Treasury Committee and an Honorary Fellow of the Institute of
Actuaries.
In addition to regular media accolades for economic forecasting, in 2012 a team from Capital
Economics, led by Roger Bootle, won the £250,000 Wolfson Economics Prize 2012.
Capital Economics is
one of the world’s
leading macroeconomic
research consultancies
Top independent forecaster
of the UK economy, 2011 and 2014
