1. The document discusses the psychological and health impacts of economic hardship and unemployment during periods of recession. 2. Past research has found that unemployment can significantly damage mental health and increase mortality risk, though the impacts may depend on context such as availability of social services. 3. Governments must prepare policies to help citizens cope with stress, support retraining, and curb rising inequality in order to minimize harm during economic downturns.

1. Keep Calm and Carry On? Policy,
Psychology and the Effects of
‘Economic War’
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British Library!
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Monday April 30th, 2012!
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2. Professor Mel Bartley, UCL
Professor Peter Taylor-Gooby, University of
Kent
Professor Edgar Jones, King’s College London
James Lloyd, The Strategic Society Centre

3. An ESRC Research Centre
www.ucl.ac.uk/icls
…...bridging social and biological sciences
1

4. An ESRC Research Centre
Unemployment and health in the life
course
• Long history of concern with health impact
of unemployment
• In the 1930s, attempts were made to deny
any effect
• Charles Webster Healthy or Hungry
Thirties found that it depended on region

5. An ESRC Research Centre
Effect on health of recessions
• Even in a deep recession, most working
age men remain employed
• 20% unemployment rate is very high (this
is what they have at present in Spain)
• What happens to those who remain in
work?

6. An ESRC Research Centre
Working through a recession
• Those who remain in work may become more
anxious and insecure about their jobs
• In order to keep working after redundancy,
people tend to have to accept jobs with lower
pay, less job security and often more work
hazards
• But prices often fall as well, so money buys more
(e.g. at present mortgage interest is low)

7. An ESRC Research Centre
Does recession influence health?
• Not a clear question. Could mean:
– Do recessions damage population health?
– Does unemployment damage health of
individuals
• Mental health
• Physical health
• Life expectancy

8. An ESRC Research Centre
Employment and unemployment rates, UK 2007-9
Working age employment rate Working age unemployment rate
January 2007 to July 2009 January 2007 to July 2009
Rate (%) Rate (%)
76 9
75
8
75
74
7
74
73
6
73
72 5
Jan-Mar May-Jul Sep-Nov Jan-Mar May-Jul Sep-Nov Jan-Mar May-Jul
Jan-Mar May-Jul Sep-Nov Jan-Mar May-Jul Sep-Nov Jan-Mar May-Jul
2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009
2007 2007 2007 2008 2008 2008 2009 2009
Quarter Quarter
Source: ONS, Labour Force Survey

9. An ESRC Research Centre
Trajectories of unemployment in present and previous recessions
from “Jobs Crisis”, John P martin, OECD Observer No 274, October 2009
2007----
1973----
1979----
1990----
2000----

10. An ESRC Research Centre
Unemployment and economic inactivity: diverging trends 1980-2008
Men 16-64 1980 to 2008
%
18
16
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010
Unemployment Inactivity
http://www.statistics.gov.uk/statbase/TSDdownload2.asp 23 Feb 2009

11. An ESRC Research Centre
Summary of longitudinal studies on unemployment and mental health
Changes in employment status and
Worse mental mental health
health
0.3
0.2
0.1
Size of effect
0
Employed T1 Unemployed T1
-0.1
-0.2
-0.3
-0.4
Better mental Employed T2 Unemployed T2
health
Source: Paul & Moser J Voc Behavior 2009

12. An ESRC Research Centre
Relationship between labour market status and
GHQ-12 caseness . Men
Source: Ellen Flint unpublished
PhD thesis 2012
Adjustments: age; Mental health last year; education; physical health; marital situation; employment status last year;
housing tenure; region; macroeconomic conditions; financial situation; substance abuse;

13. An ESRC Research Centre
Relationship between labour market status and
GHQ-12 caseness . Women
Source: Ellen Flint
unpublished PhD thesis 2012
Adjustments: age; Mental health last year; education; physical health; marital situation; 11
employment status last year; housing tenure; region; macroeconomic conditions; financial
situation; substance abuse;

14. An ESRC Research Centre
Suicide and suspected suicide mortality in England and Wales
1971-2008
180
160
140
120
DSR/million
100 Men
80 Women
60
40
20
0
1971 1981 1991 2001 2003 Dec-
08

15. An ESRC Research Centre
Comparison of mortality between employed and unemployed
1971-2001: Men aged 50-59
www.ucl.ac.uk/icls 13
Source: Akinwale et al JECH 2011

16. An ESRC Research Centre
Comparison of mortality between employed and unemployed
1971-2001: women aged 50-59
www.ucl.ac.uk/icls 14

17. An ESRC Research Centre
Is unemployment bad for health?
• Mental health effects always accepted
• Mortality figures very controversial
• But have now been replicated 3 times
• Which is more than many studies of e.g.
drug effectiveness
• Has anyone costed the economic gains?
www.ucl.ac.uk/icls 15

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