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International Journal of Business and Management Invention
ISSN (Online): 2319 – 8028, ISSN (Print): 2319 – 801X
www.ijbmi.org || Volume 4 Issue 11 || November. 2015 || PP-31-36
www.ijbmi.org 31 | Page
Impact of Capital market reforms on the Indian Stock Market
since Globalisation
Dr.Leena James, Chandni Vijay, ShrutiBhansali
Department of Management Studies, Christ University, India
Abstract:The capital market reforms and its relationship with the Indian stock market is of great significance
from the point of view of growth and development of the Indian economy. Pre- globalisation capital market
reforms did not have major positive impacts on the volatility, liquidity and various other economic indicators of
the stock market. However, the post- globalisation reforms led to a marked improvement for the stock market
development which has led to the economic growth in India and the relationship between them have proved to
be long term as well as beneficial to the Indian economy.
Key words: capital markets, globalisation ,liquidity, market capitalisation, reforms,volatility
I. Introduction
Capital market is a market where buyers and sellers engage in trade of financial securities like bonds, stocks,
etc. The buying/selling is undertaken by participants such as individuals and institutions. Capital markets help
channelize surplus funds from savers to institutions which then invest them into productive use.
After Independence the capital market in India progressed remarkably. The first organised stock exchange was
established in India at Bombay in 1887. When the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act 1956 was passed, only
7 Stock exchanges i.e. Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Kolkata, Chennai, Delhi, Hyderabad and Indore received
recognition. By the end of March 2004, the number of stock exchanges increased to 23.
After liberalisation policies of 1991 and the abolition of capital issues control with effect from May 29 1992, the
primary market got a tremendous boost withnew Capital Issues by Private Sector, increase in i s s ue o f Public
Sector Bonds and Mutual Funds. Financial Intermediaries are the latest trend in Indian Capital Market and play
an important role in field of venture capital, credit rating etc.
There have been a large number of recent reforms introduced in the Indian Capital Market and the Government
has taken several measures to develop capital market in post-reform period, with which the capital market
reached new heights. Some of the important measures including the setting up of the Securities and Exchange
Board of India (SEBI) and National Stock Exchange (NSE), Dematerialisation of Shares, Screen Based
Trading, Investor Protection and RollingSettlement. Setting up of The Clearing Corporation of India Limited
(CCIL) and The National Securities Clearing Corporation Limited (NSCL)as well as Trading in Central
Government Securities, setting up of Credit Rating Agencies, Accessing Global Funds Market etc. changed the
face of the Indian stock market and triggered it’s growth and expansion.
The paper aims to identify all the capital market reforms since globalisation (1991) in India and seeks to
determine the impact of these reforms and the direction of the impact of these reforms (viz. positive or negative)
on the efficiency, volatility, liquidity and market capitalization in context to the Indian stock market.
Since globalisation, the Government has introduced a variety of capital market reforms with a vision to improve
the working and size of the Indian stock market and a mission to attribute the positive implementation of these
reforms to the increased growth of the Indian economy. However, all the reforms have not been able to
successfully fulfil the purpose with which they were initiated and implemented in the first place. Thus the
problem which needs specific attention is that whether the reforms have truly led to the increased growth of the
Indian economy or is the change attributed to various other factors which affect the functioning of the stock
market.
II. Review Of Literature
Mohan (2005) conducted a research to evaluate the financial system and its performance after the reforms. He
indicates that most of the reforms took place in the securities market, with a high SLR ratio increasing its market
and steps to increase the transparency of the market were taken as well. The insurance sector, mutual funds
welcomed new participants and the Institutional Investors were also welcomed and they enjoy capital
convertibility. Ramaratnam and Jayaraman(2012) have investigated the changes in the capital market with
respect to industry, size region, sector vise classification of equity capital, and foreign investment inflows in the
stock market. Reforms have attracted foreign and domestic institutional investors. The foreign investment
inflow also had a drastic change in these years. Therefore, the changes brought about by globalization have
mobilized funds for investment and created a link between the investors and industrialists.
Impact of Capital market reforms on the Indian Stock Market...
www.ijbmi.org 32 | Page
Goel and Gupta (2011)study the impact of globalization and its reforms on stock market, through measures of
stock market size, liquidity and volatility. They used ratio analysis technique and found that MCR and liquidity
ratios are increasing whereas volatility is said to decrease annually. The correlation between turnover ratio and
value traded ratio is as high as 0.8 whereas the other measures don’t show much correlation. Thus, the primary
and secondary markets have grown due to reforms since 1991.
III. Research Methodology
3.1. Objectives of the research
The objectives are:
 To identify the reforms of the Indian government on the Indian capital market since 1991
 To determine the impact of these reforms on the Indian capital market
 To determine if the reforms had a positive or negative impact on the Indian economy through the Indian
capital market.
3.2. Research period
The research periodis 1991-2012.Data about the reforms, market size, volatility and liquidity obtained from the
Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Securities Market, Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, and
Handbook of Statistics on Indian Securities market) along with various research journals, periodicals and
websites (SEBI Annual Report). Questionnaire and Interview method was also used which helped provide the
direct views, opinions and feedback regarding the economic scenario since the implementation of the reforms.
3.3. Operational Definitions
3.3.1 Capital market
Market for lending and borrowing of medium and long term reserves where interest for long term funds
originates from industry, exchange, agriculture and government. The supply of funds originates from individual
savers, corporate funds, banks, insurance agencies, specialised financial institutions and government.
3.3.2Market capitalisation
Market capitalisation (market cap) is the aggregate valuation of the company based on its current share price and
total number of outstanding stocks.
The formula being:
Market Capitalization = Current Stock Price x Shares Outstanding
Market capitalization mirrors the hypothetical expense of purchasing the majority of an organization's shares,
however more often than not will be not what the organization could be bought for in a typical merger
exchange. To gauge what it would cost for a financial specialist to purchase an organization by and large, the
enterprise value calculation is more proper.
Along these lines market capitalization is a superior measure of size than worth. That is, business sector
capitalization is not the same as business quality, which can for the most part just be appointed when the
organization is really sold.
3.3.3Volatility
Volatility is a measure for variation of price of a financial instrument over time. Historic volatility is derived
from time series of past market prices. An implied volatility is derived from the market price of a market traded
derivative (in particular an option).
3.3.4Liquidity
Liquidity is the term used to describe how easy it is to convert assets to cash. The most liquid asset, and what
everything else is compared to, is cash. This is because it can always be used easily and immediately.In the
market, liquidity has a somewhat diverse significance, albeit still tied to how effortlessly resources, for this
situation, shares of stock, can be changed over to money.
The business sector for a stock is said to be fluid if the shares can be quickly sold and the act of selling has little
effect on the stock's cost. By and large, this translates to where the shares are exchanged and the level of
premium that financial specialists have in the organization. Company stock traded on the significant trades can
generally be viewed as fluid. Regularly, nearly 1% of the float trade hands day by day, demonstrating a high
level of enthusiasm for the stock. Then again, company organization stock exchanged on the pink sheets or over
the counter are frequently non-fluid, with not very many, even zero, shares exchanged every day.
Impact of Capital market reforms on the Indian Stock Market...
www.ijbmi.org 33 | Page
IV. Data Analysis
Table 1: Market Capitalisation
Year Market Capitalisation (Crore) MCR %
1992-93 188146 25.1
1993-94 368071 42.8
1994-95 435481 46.3
1995-96 526476 47.5
1996-97 463915 36.9
1997-98 560325 41.4
1998-99 545361 35.6
1999-00 912842 47.1
2000-01 571553 27.4
2001-02 612224 26.9
2002-03 572198 23.2
2003-04 1210207 43.5
2004-05 1698428 54.7
2005-06 3022191 84.4
2006-07 3545041 85.5
2007-08 5138014 109.5
2008-09 3086075 55.3
2009-10 6165619 95.5
2010-11 6839084 87.7
2011-12 6214941 69.2
Market Capitalisation has risen by 30 times over this period. 1990s saw a large increase in market capitalisation
mainly due to greater participation by individuals and institutional investors in the capital market. Foreign
institutional investors (FII) have been allowed to invest in the Indian capital market since September 1992. The
highest contribution to GDP was in 2007-08 with MCR being 109.5%.
Table 2: Value Traded Ratio and Turnover Ratio
Year
Total value
traded (crores)
VTR
% change in
value traded
Turnover
Ratio
M arket Cap
(crore)
1992-93 45696 6.1 -36.333491 24.2875214 188146
1993-94 84536 9.8 84.9964986 22.9673079 368071
1994-95 67749 6.7 -19.857812 15.5572803 435481
1995-96 50064 4.2 -26.103706 9.50926538 526476
1996-97 124190 9.1 148.06248 26.7699902 463915
1997-98 207113 13.6 66.7710766 36.9630125 560325
1998-99 310750 17.8 50.0388677 56.9806055 545361
1999-00 686428 35.4 120.893966 75.196803 912842
2000-01 1000032 47.9 45.6863648 174.967501 571553
2001-02 307292 13.5 -69.271783 50.1927399 612224
2002-03 314073 12.7 2.20669591 54.8888671 572198
2003-04 503053 18.2 60.1707246 41.567517 1210207
2004-05 518715 16 3.11338964 30.5408884 1698428
2005-06 816074 22.1 57.3260847 27.0027275 3022191
2006-07 956185 22.3 17.1689087 26.9724666 3545041
2007-08 1578857 31.7 65.1204526 30.7289353 5138014
2008-09 1100074 19.7 -30.324659 35.6463793 3086075
2009-10 1378809 21 25.3378409 22.3628641 6165619
2010-11 1105027 15.2 -19.856412 16.1575293 6839084
2011-12 2810893 8 154.373242 45.2279917 6214941
Total value traded has risen by more than 60 times from 1992 to 2012. It doubled from 1990-91 to 1991-92 and
fell by 36% in 1992-1993. The total value traded rises in the late 1900s and falls sharply in 2001. The Value
traded ratio has moved from 6.1% at the time of liberalization to 48% in 2000, which is the highest in all these
years. It fluctuates from 2001 onwards. There were maximum activities in the market during 2000-2001.
The turnover ratio has increased from 24% in 1992 to 45% in 2012. The highest turnover ratio is 175% which
occurred in 2000-2001, the same period in which VTR was at its maximum. This shows high correlation
between the two measures.
Impact of Capital market reforms on the Indian Stock Market...
www.ijbmi.org 34 | Page
Table 3: Volatility
Year
Volatility (BSE
Sensex)
1992 3.3
1993 1.8
1994 1.4
1995 1.3
1996 1.5
1997 1.6
1998 1.9
1999 1.8
2000 2.2
2001 1.7
2002 1.1
2003 1.2
2004 1.6
2005 1.1
2006 1.6
2007 1.5
2008 2.8
2009 2.2
2010 1
2011 1.3
2012 1.3
*Volatility is the standard deviation of daily logarithmic returns for the respective period.
Source: BSE
The average volatility over this period is 1.61%. The volatility is 3.3 at the beginning of the period. This high
volatility may be due to balance of payments problems and the changes due to initiation of liberalization. The
data does not show any significant pattern in volatility with respect to increase or decrease on a year to year
basis. But, if we divide the years into sub groups,the data does show decrease from one sub group to the next
(Goel & Gupta, 2011).
Table 5: Pre and Post Globalisation Market Capitalisation
Pre Liberalisation
Market Cap
(crores)
Post
Liberalisation
Market Cap
(crores)
1982-83 9769 1992-93 188146
1983-84 10219 1993-94 368071
1984-85 20378 1994-95 435481
1985-86 21636 1995-96 526476
1986-87 25937 1996-97 463915
1987-88 45519 1997-98 560325
1988-89 54560 1998-99 545361
1989-90 65206 1999-00 912842
1990-91 90836 2000-01 571553
1991-92 323363 2001-02 612224
66742.3 518439.4
93882.9216 185972.8689
YEAR X YEAR X
Average
Standard
Deviation
1 2
Impact of Capital market reforms on the Indian Stock Market...
www.ijbmi.org 35 | Page
Hypothesis has been framed to test whether stock market development was affected by the reforms initiated in
the 1900s. Due to inaccessibility of data regarding pre liberalisation liquidity and volatility, only market size has
been considered.
 T test has been used to test the hypothesis as sample size is 20(years).
 Critical values have been considered for 5% L.O.S (level of significance)
 Market Capitalisation is used to represent market size.
Meaning of notations used:
n1= sample size of pre liberalisation period (x1)
n2=sample size of post liberalisation period (x2)
s =sample standard deviation
s1= sample SD of x1 values
s2= sample SD of x2 values
valuesxofmeanx
valuesxofmeanx
22
11


d.f = degrees of freedom
In notation form:
H0: µ1=µ2
H1:µ1<µ2 (Left tailed test)
Finding critical value (ttab)
n1=10 n2=10
d.f = n1 + n2 -2
= 10+10-2
 d.f = 18
L.O.S = 5%
Therefore, critical value
Calculate test statistic
Test statistic tobsis calculated as follows:
21
21
11
nn
s
xx
tobs



Where,
221
2
22
2
11



nn
snsn
s

21010
)86.186972(10)92.9388210
22


s
10
1
10
1
36.155277
4.5184393.66742


obs
t
-6.5 < -1.734
Since tobs<ttab , H0 is not accepted.
 H1 is accepted.
ttab = -1.734 (from t-table)
369972.15527 s
5.6 obs
t
Impact of Capital market reforms on the Indian Stock Market...
www.ijbmi.org 36 | Page
 Market Capitalisation for post liberalisation is more than pre liberalisation period. Therefore, market size has
increased due to reforms post liberalisation.
Primary data is collected through questionnaire and personal interview methods.
V. CONCLUSION
Our research concludes that, there has been significant improvement in the stock market after globalisation and
the establishment of SEBI and its reforms. Stock market development and economic development are inter-
related and have a positive impact on each other.
 Liberalisation of the securities market has contributed to its development and also towards the Indian
Economy.
 Market Capitalisation Ratio, Total Value Traded Ratio and Turnover Ratio have increased tremendously,
post liberalisation. Over the period 1992-2012, the average VTR is 17.55% and Turnover ratio is 41.22%.
 Correlation coefficient for VTR and Turnover Ratio is 0.8 (Goel & Gupta, 2011). The market size and
volatility also shows a correlation of -0.4. The liquidity indicators are have high positive correlation.
 Volatility does not show any particular trend but it’s at its highest (3.3) at the beginning of the period. This
can be attributed to the fluctuations arising from initiation of Foreign Investment Inflows in 1992. Some
studies say that volatility infact, increases due to liberalisation while others prove the opposite. Thus
volatility shows mixed trends.
 FII has affected market size and liquidity but doesn’t have a significant impact on volatility. There was
outflow of FPI during 1998-89 and 2008-09. FDI is preferred to FPI and they both show positive correlation
towards Sensex and Nifty. FDI however, has a much higher correlation.
 ADRs/GDRs are the highest during 2007-08, at $6645 million. They were $240 million in 1992 but have
gone down to $187 in 2012. There is both increasing and decreasing trends over the period.
 The hypothesis tested shows significant increase in market capitalisation after liberalisation. Other studies
conducted have proven hypothesis that stock market development causes economic growth (Agarwalla &
Tuteja, 2007) and there exits a long term relationship between them.
REFERENCES
[1] Mohan, D. R. (2005, February). Financial Sector Reforms In India. The Chartered Accountant, 962-972.
[2] Jayaraman, R., & Ramaratnam, M. (2012, January). A Study Of Impact Of Globalisation For The Recent Development Of Indian
Capital Market: An Analytical Approach. International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, 2(1), 435-446.
[3] Goel, K., & Gupta, R. (2011, January-June). Impact Of Globalization On Stock Market Development In India. Delhi Business
Review, 12, 69-84.
[4] Agarwalla, R. K., & Tuteja, S. (2007, December). Causality Between Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: A Case
Study Of India. Journal of Management Research, 7, 158-168.
[5] Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy
[6] Handbook of Statistics on Indian Securities Market
[7] SEBI Annual Report 2014

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Impact of Capital market reforms on the Indian Stock Market since Globalisation

  • 1. International Journal of Business and Management Invention ISSN (Online): 2319 – 8028, ISSN (Print): 2319 – 801X www.ijbmi.org || Volume 4 Issue 11 || November. 2015 || PP-31-36 www.ijbmi.org 31 | Page Impact of Capital market reforms on the Indian Stock Market since Globalisation Dr.Leena James, Chandni Vijay, ShrutiBhansali Department of Management Studies, Christ University, India Abstract:The capital market reforms and its relationship with the Indian stock market is of great significance from the point of view of growth and development of the Indian economy. Pre- globalisation capital market reforms did not have major positive impacts on the volatility, liquidity and various other economic indicators of the stock market. However, the post- globalisation reforms led to a marked improvement for the stock market development which has led to the economic growth in India and the relationship between them have proved to be long term as well as beneficial to the Indian economy. Key words: capital markets, globalisation ,liquidity, market capitalisation, reforms,volatility I. Introduction Capital market is a market where buyers and sellers engage in trade of financial securities like bonds, stocks, etc. The buying/selling is undertaken by participants such as individuals and institutions. Capital markets help channelize surplus funds from savers to institutions which then invest them into productive use. After Independence the capital market in India progressed remarkably. The first organised stock exchange was established in India at Bombay in 1887. When the Securities Contracts (Regulation) Act 1956 was passed, only 7 Stock exchanges i.e. Mumbai, Ahmedabad, Kolkata, Chennai, Delhi, Hyderabad and Indore received recognition. By the end of March 2004, the number of stock exchanges increased to 23. After liberalisation policies of 1991 and the abolition of capital issues control with effect from May 29 1992, the primary market got a tremendous boost withnew Capital Issues by Private Sector, increase in i s s ue o f Public Sector Bonds and Mutual Funds. Financial Intermediaries are the latest trend in Indian Capital Market and play an important role in field of venture capital, credit rating etc. There have been a large number of recent reforms introduced in the Indian Capital Market and the Government has taken several measures to develop capital market in post-reform period, with which the capital market reached new heights. Some of the important measures including the setting up of the Securities and Exchange Board of India (SEBI) and National Stock Exchange (NSE), Dematerialisation of Shares, Screen Based Trading, Investor Protection and RollingSettlement. Setting up of The Clearing Corporation of India Limited (CCIL) and The National Securities Clearing Corporation Limited (NSCL)as well as Trading in Central Government Securities, setting up of Credit Rating Agencies, Accessing Global Funds Market etc. changed the face of the Indian stock market and triggered it’s growth and expansion. The paper aims to identify all the capital market reforms since globalisation (1991) in India and seeks to determine the impact of these reforms and the direction of the impact of these reforms (viz. positive or negative) on the efficiency, volatility, liquidity and market capitalization in context to the Indian stock market. Since globalisation, the Government has introduced a variety of capital market reforms with a vision to improve the working and size of the Indian stock market and a mission to attribute the positive implementation of these reforms to the increased growth of the Indian economy. However, all the reforms have not been able to successfully fulfil the purpose with which they were initiated and implemented in the first place. Thus the problem which needs specific attention is that whether the reforms have truly led to the increased growth of the Indian economy or is the change attributed to various other factors which affect the functioning of the stock market. II. Review Of Literature Mohan (2005) conducted a research to evaluate the financial system and its performance after the reforms. He indicates that most of the reforms took place in the securities market, with a high SLR ratio increasing its market and steps to increase the transparency of the market were taken as well. The insurance sector, mutual funds welcomed new participants and the Institutional Investors were also welcomed and they enjoy capital convertibility. Ramaratnam and Jayaraman(2012) have investigated the changes in the capital market with respect to industry, size region, sector vise classification of equity capital, and foreign investment inflows in the stock market. Reforms have attracted foreign and domestic institutional investors. The foreign investment inflow also had a drastic change in these years. Therefore, the changes brought about by globalization have mobilized funds for investment and created a link between the investors and industrialists.
  • 2. Impact of Capital market reforms on the Indian Stock Market... www.ijbmi.org 32 | Page Goel and Gupta (2011)study the impact of globalization and its reforms on stock market, through measures of stock market size, liquidity and volatility. They used ratio analysis technique and found that MCR and liquidity ratios are increasing whereas volatility is said to decrease annually. The correlation between turnover ratio and value traded ratio is as high as 0.8 whereas the other measures don’t show much correlation. Thus, the primary and secondary markets have grown due to reforms since 1991. III. Research Methodology 3.1. Objectives of the research The objectives are:  To identify the reforms of the Indian government on the Indian capital market since 1991  To determine the impact of these reforms on the Indian capital market  To determine if the reforms had a positive or negative impact on the Indian economy through the Indian capital market. 3.2. Research period The research periodis 1991-2012.Data about the reforms, market size, volatility and liquidity obtained from the Handbook of Statistics on the Indian Securities Market, Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy, and Handbook of Statistics on Indian Securities market) along with various research journals, periodicals and websites (SEBI Annual Report). Questionnaire and Interview method was also used which helped provide the direct views, opinions and feedback regarding the economic scenario since the implementation of the reforms. 3.3. Operational Definitions 3.3.1 Capital market Market for lending and borrowing of medium and long term reserves where interest for long term funds originates from industry, exchange, agriculture and government. The supply of funds originates from individual savers, corporate funds, banks, insurance agencies, specialised financial institutions and government. 3.3.2Market capitalisation Market capitalisation (market cap) is the aggregate valuation of the company based on its current share price and total number of outstanding stocks. The formula being: Market Capitalization = Current Stock Price x Shares Outstanding Market capitalization mirrors the hypothetical expense of purchasing the majority of an organization's shares, however more often than not will be not what the organization could be bought for in a typical merger exchange. To gauge what it would cost for a financial specialist to purchase an organization by and large, the enterprise value calculation is more proper. Along these lines market capitalization is a superior measure of size than worth. That is, business sector capitalization is not the same as business quality, which can for the most part just be appointed when the organization is really sold. 3.3.3Volatility Volatility is a measure for variation of price of a financial instrument over time. Historic volatility is derived from time series of past market prices. An implied volatility is derived from the market price of a market traded derivative (in particular an option). 3.3.4Liquidity Liquidity is the term used to describe how easy it is to convert assets to cash. The most liquid asset, and what everything else is compared to, is cash. This is because it can always be used easily and immediately.In the market, liquidity has a somewhat diverse significance, albeit still tied to how effortlessly resources, for this situation, shares of stock, can be changed over to money. The business sector for a stock is said to be fluid if the shares can be quickly sold and the act of selling has little effect on the stock's cost. By and large, this translates to where the shares are exchanged and the level of premium that financial specialists have in the organization. Company stock traded on the significant trades can generally be viewed as fluid. Regularly, nearly 1% of the float trade hands day by day, demonstrating a high level of enthusiasm for the stock. Then again, company organization stock exchanged on the pink sheets or over the counter are frequently non-fluid, with not very many, even zero, shares exchanged every day.
  • 3. Impact of Capital market reforms on the Indian Stock Market... www.ijbmi.org 33 | Page IV. Data Analysis Table 1: Market Capitalisation Year Market Capitalisation (Crore) MCR % 1992-93 188146 25.1 1993-94 368071 42.8 1994-95 435481 46.3 1995-96 526476 47.5 1996-97 463915 36.9 1997-98 560325 41.4 1998-99 545361 35.6 1999-00 912842 47.1 2000-01 571553 27.4 2001-02 612224 26.9 2002-03 572198 23.2 2003-04 1210207 43.5 2004-05 1698428 54.7 2005-06 3022191 84.4 2006-07 3545041 85.5 2007-08 5138014 109.5 2008-09 3086075 55.3 2009-10 6165619 95.5 2010-11 6839084 87.7 2011-12 6214941 69.2 Market Capitalisation has risen by 30 times over this period. 1990s saw a large increase in market capitalisation mainly due to greater participation by individuals and institutional investors in the capital market. Foreign institutional investors (FII) have been allowed to invest in the Indian capital market since September 1992. The highest contribution to GDP was in 2007-08 with MCR being 109.5%. Table 2: Value Traded Ratio and Turnover Ratio Year Total value traded (crores) VTR % change in value traded Turnover Ratio M arket Cap (crore) 1992-93 45696 6.1 -36.333491 24.2875214 188146 1993-94 84536 9.8 84.9964986 22.9673079 368071 1994-95 67749 6.7 -19.857812 15.5572803 435481 1995-96 50064 4.2 -26.103706 9.50926538 526476 1996-97 124190 9.1 148.06248 26.7699902 463915 1997-98 207113 13.6 66.7710766 36.9630125 560325 1998-99 310750 17.8 50.0388677 56.9806055 545361 1999-00 686428 35.4 120.893966 75.196803 912842 2000-01 1000032 47.9 45.6863648 174.967501 571553 2001-02 307292 13.5 -69.271783 50.1927399 612224 2002-03 314073 12.7 2.20669591 54.8888671 572198 2003-04 503053 18.2 60.1707246 41.567517 1210207 2004-05 518715 16 3.11338964 30.5408884 1698428 2005-06 816074 22.1 57.3260847 27.0027275 3022191 2006-07 956185 22.3 17.1689087 26.9724666 3545041 2007-08 1578857 31.7 65.1204526 30.7289353 5138014 2008-09 1100074 19.7 -30.324659 35.6463793 3086075 2009-10 1378809 21 25.3378409 22.3628641 6165619 2010-11 1105027 15.2 -19.856412 16.1575293 6839084 2011-12 2810893 8 154.373242 45.2279917 6214941 Total value traded has risen by more than 60 times from 1992 to 2012. It doubled from 1990-91 to 1991-92 and fell by 36% in 1992-1993. The total value traded rises in the late 1900s and falls sharply in 2001. The Value traded ratio has moved from 6.1% at the time of liberalization to 48% in 2000, which is the highest in all these years. It fluctuates from 2001 onwards. There were maximum activities in the market during 2000-2001. The turnover ratio has increased from 24% in 1992 to 45% in 2012. The highest turnover ratio is 175% which occurred in 2000-2001, the same period in which VTR was at its maximum. This shows high correlation between the two measures.
  • 4. Impact of Capital market reforms on the Indian Stock Market... www.ijbmi.org 34 | Page Table 3: Volatility Year Volatility (BSE Sensex) 1992 3.3 1993 1.8 1994 1.4 1995 1.3 1996 1.5 1997 1.6 1998 1.9 1999 1.8 2000 2.2 2001 1.7 2002 1.1 2003 1.2 2004 1.6 2005 1.1 2006 1.6 2007 1.5 2008 2.8 2009 2.2 2010 1 2011 1.3 2012 1.3 *Volatility is the standard deviation of daily logarithmic returns for the respective period. Source: BSE The average volatility over this period is 1.61%. The volatility is 3.3 at the beginning of the period. This high volatility may be due to balance of payments problems and the changes due to initiation of liberalization. The data does not show any significant pattern in volatility with respect to increase or decrease on a year to year basis. But, if we divide the years into sub groups,the data does show decrease from one sub group to the next (Goel & Gupta, 2011). Table 5: Pre and Post Globalisation Market Capitalisation Pre Liberalisation Market Cap (crores) Post Liberalisation Market Cap (crores) 1982-83 9769 1992-93 188146 1983-84 10219 1993-94 368071 1984-85 20378 1994-95 435481 1985-86 21636 1995-96 526476 1986-87 25937 1996-97 463915 1987-88 45519 1997-98 560325 1988-89 54560 1998-99 545361 1989-90 65206 1999-00 912842 1990-91 90836 2000-01 571553 1991-92 323363 2001-02 612224 66742.3 518439.4 93882.9216 185972.8689 YEAR X YEAR X Average Standard Deviation 1 2
  • 5. Impact of Capital market reforms on the Indian Stock Market... www.ijbmi.org 35 | Page Hypothesis has been framed to test whether stock market development was affected by the reforms initiated in the 1900s. Due to inaccessibility of data regarding pre liberalisation liquidity and volatility, only market size has been considered.  T test has been used to test the hypothesis as sample size is 20(years).  Critical values have been considered for 5% L.O.S (level of significance)  Market Capitalisation is used to represent market size. Meaning of notations used: n1= sample size of pre liberalisation period (x1) n2=sample size of post liberalisation period (x2) s =sample standard deviation s1= sample SD of x1 values s2= sample SD of x2 values valuesxofmeanx valuesxofmeanx 22 11   d.f = degrees of freedom In notation form: H0: µ1=µ2 H1:µ1<µ2 (Left tailed test) Finding critical value (ttab) n1=10 n2=10 d.f = n1 + n2 -2 = 10+10-2  d.f = 18 L.O.S = 5% Therefore, critical value Calculate test statistic Test statistic tobsis calculated as follows: 21 21 11 nn s xx tobs    Where, 221 2 22 2 11    nn snsn s  21010 )86.186972(10)92.9388210 22   s 10 1 10 1 36.155277 4.5184393.66742   obs t -6.5 < -1.734 Since tobs<ttab , H0 is not accepted.  H1 is accepted. ttab = -1.734 (from t-table) 369972.15527 s 5.6 obs t
  • 6. Impact of Capital market reforms on the Indian Stock Market... www.ijbmi.org 36 | Page  Market Capitalisation for post liberalisation is more than pre liberalisation period. Therefore, market size has increased due to reforms post liberalisation. Primary data is collected through questionnaire and personal interview methods. V. CONCLUSION Our research concludes that, there has been significant improvement in the stock market after globalisation and the establishment of SEBI and its reforms. Stock market development and economic development are inter- related and have a positive impact on each other.  Liberalisation of the securities market has contributed to its development and also towards the Indian Economy.  Market Capitalisation Ratio, Total Value Traded Ratio and Turnover Ratio have increased tremendously, post liberalisation. Over the period 1992-2012, the average VTR is 17.55% and Turnover ratio is 41.22%.  Correlation coefficient for VTR and Turnover Ratio is 0.8 (Goel & Gupta, 2011). The market size and volatility also shows a correlation of -0.4. The liquidity indicators are have high positive correlation.  Volatility does not show any particular trend but it’s at its highest (3.3) at the beginning of the period. This can be attributed to the fluctuations arising from initiation of Foreign Investment Inflows in 1992. Some studies say that volatility infact, increases due to liberalisation while others prove the opposite. Thus volatility shows mixed trends.  FII has affected market size and liquidity but doesn’t have a significant impact on volatility. There was outflow of FPI during 1998-89 and 2008-09. FDI is preferred to FPI and they both show positive correlation towards Sensex and Nifty. FDI however, has a much higher correlation.  ADRs/GDRs are the highest during 2007-08, at $6645 million. They were $240 million in 1992 but have gone down to $187 in 2012. There is both increasing and decreasing trends over the period.  The hypothesis tested shows significant increase in market capitalisation after liberalisation. Other studies conducted have proven hypothesis that stock market development causes economic growth (Agarwalla & Tuteja, 2007) and there exits a long term relationship between them. REFERENCES [1] Mohan, D. R. (2005, February). Financial Sector Reforms In India. The Chartered Accountant, 962-972. [2] Jayaraman, R., & Ramaratnam, M. (2012, January). A Study Of Impact Of Globalisation For The Recent Development Of Indian Capital Market: An Analytical Approach. International Journal of Multidisciplinary Research, 2(1), 435-446. [3] Goel, K., & Gupta, R. (2011, January-June). Impact Of Globalization On Stock Market Development In India. Delhi Business Review, 12, 69-84. [4] Agarwalla, R. K., & Tuteja, S. (2007, December). Causality Between Stock Market Development and Economic Growth: A Case Study Of India. Journal of Management Research, 7, 158-168. [5] Handbook of Statistics on Indian Economy [6] Handbook of Statistics on Indian Securities Market [7] SEBI Annual Report 2014