CTA's 24th Annual Holiday Outlook
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Each year, Consumer Technology Association (CTA)™ Market Research produces extensive and timely intelligence for the holiday shopping season. As the authoritative source for consumer technology market research, CTA's analysts provide insights about what's trending, what's disrupting, holiday sales predictions, technology on consumers' gift lists this season, the Black Friday outlook and much more.
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CTA's 24th Annual Holiday Outlook
- 2. CTA’s 24th Annual Holiday Outlook Steve Koenig Sr. Director, Market Research skoenig@CTA.tech @koenigsteve Lesley Rohrbaugh Sr. Manager, Market Research lrohrbaugh@CTA.tech
- 3. Scoring Our 2016 Holiday Forecast Series Projected 2016 Holiday Growth 2016 Holiday Growth Actual Overall Retail Sales 3.8% 4.0%* Consumer Tech Spending 3.1% 3.8% * Source: NRF
- 4. Methodology Quantitative Study: Random sample of 1,008 U.S. Adults, surveyed via landline and mobile phone between September 7-10. Conversions to ‘millions’ of U.S. Adults is based on 247 million U.S. Adults.
- 5. What will be the same this holiday? •Store comps will be lower •Online will be huge – Deloitte: +18-21% •Tech stands out as holiday gift •Fading focus on Black Friday
- 6. What will be different this holiday? More Delivery Options Focus on Personas Highest Level of Targeted Ads
- 7. 2017 Holiday Spending on Tech Gifts
- 8. % of U.S. Adults Buying Technology Gifts 50% 52% 46% 48% 49% 49% 58% 62% 64% 63% 63% 68% 68% 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
- 9. U.S. Adult Gift Givers Will Spend an Average of $478 on Tech Gifts Avg. Spend $478 Males $533 Females $420 Children in HH $559 Adults Ages 35-44 $635 Early Tech Adopters $571 SPEND MORE SPEND LESS Q. You indicated you plan to spend at least some money on gifts this holiday season. Please tell me the TOTAL amount you will spend on consumer electronics products. Your best estimate is fine. (Base = Plan to spend money for holiday gifts this year) 28% 41% 50% 46% 35%
- 10. 22% 20% 22% 23% 18% 20% 21% 20% 19% 18% 19% 18% 16% 19% 51% 41% 48% 48% 41% 46% 48% 44% 47% 50% 55% 52% 52% 52% 25% 37% 28% 27% 41% 33% 26% 34% 32% 32% 25% 28% 30% 26% 0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Shifts in Holiday Gift Spending Plans Spend More Spend Same Spend Less $569 Avg $482 Avg $359 Avg
- 11. 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Have What You Need 55% 57% 67% 47% 38% 45% 50% Fixed Income 60% 48% 56% 48% 44% 54% 50% Don't have the money 71% 62% 66% 53% 44% 60% 49% Increased cost of living 59% 56% 64% 50% 38% 57% 44% Concerns with the economy 77% 66% 68% 46% 36% 46% 43% Earning less money 52% 52% 49% 37% 38% 40% 37% Concerned about the current U.S. political climate 33% Concerned with the Presidential Election Outcome 38% Lost Job / Unemployed 37% 34% 34% 18% 25% 27% 23% Stock Market / Investment Concerns 42% 22% 26% 20% 17% 18% 20% QB18: You indicated you plan to spend less this year than last. Which of the following, if any, are reasons why you plan to spend less on gifts this year? Why are consumers planning to spend less?
- 12. Deals, Timing of Shopping, Stores & Locations
- 13. What will be different this holiday? Rise of the Omnishopper Scrutiny of Return Policies The “Alexa” Effect Alexa, What are your deals?
- 14. 56% 50% What’s the Deal with Holiday Deals? 40% Make an Unplanned Purchase Based on a Deal Shop Specific In-Store Holiday Sales Events 42% 2017: 2014: 53% Shop Specific Online Holiday Sales Events N/A 50% 41%2015: 51% 53% 41%2016: 52%
- 15. Online vs. In-Store Purchase Intent % Very or Somewhat Likely to Purchase Tech from… 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 77% 77% 75% 77% 77% 74% 79% 47% 46% 45% 54% 55% 57% 59% Physical Store Online
- 16. Following the footsteps… Electronics Store Warehouse Club Store Department Store 2017: 2016: 63% 61% 58% 57% 42% 38% 39% 34% Shopper Profile • Younger (<44 years old) • Lower incomes (<$50k) • Single • Have children in HH • Male • Under the age of 55 • Married/Living with partner • Higher education levels of some college or more • Higher incomes of $75k+ • Younger (<44 years old) • Have children in HH Mass Merchant
- 17. Specialty Stores Attract Traffic Pop-Up Stores Brand Stores 21% 31%
- 18. Voice: the Fourth Sales Channel
- 19. What will be different this holiday? “Deals Are Coming” ELEPHONE
- 20. Where Will Consumers Learn About Deals? 18% 34% 42% 49% 54% 59% 59% 60% 63% 68% Text notification, or SMS, on a cell phone Apps on a smartphone or tablet computer Social media sites, such as Facebook, or Twitter Retailer website Online or email advertisements Newspapers, circulars or ads in the mail Internet search engine, such as Google Signs and advertisements in a store TV advertisements Friends or family members +11% vs. 2016
- 21. Guaranteed delivery by the holidays 54% Free return policies for online orders 51% Shipping programs, such as Amazon Prime or free shipping 63% In-store pickup for online orders 44% Same day delivery for online orders 36% Retailer Promises Getting the Gifts +8% vs. 2016 What Deals Will Customers Take Advantage Of? Retailer Sales In-store Retailer Holiday Season or Flash Sales 58% Online Retail Store Sales 52% -6% vs. 2016
- 22. What will be different this holiday? Cyber November Gift Curation New Shopping Holidays
- 23. Two-Thirds of U.S. Adults Start Shopping in Nov/Dec Q: When do you typically start buying gifts? 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 September or Earlier 22% 18% 17% 16% 17% 15% 16% 14% 18% 15% 15% 16% October 21% 19% 16% 19% 17% 16% 11% 11% 13% 9% 10% 11% November 29% 31% 36% 33% 32% 35% 39% 38% 38% 38% 39% 43% Before Thanksgiving 16% Thanksgiving to end of month 27% December 23% 26% 26% 25% 27% 28% 25% 30% 23% 29% 27% 23% Don’t Buy Gifts 3% 4% 5% 7% 7% 5% 7% 7% 8% 8% 8% 7% Base: Random national sample of 1,008 U.S. adults
- 24. 2014 2015 2016 2017 October or earlier (Net) 16% 12% 13% 13% September or earlier 9% 5% 7% 7% October 7% 6% 6% 7% November or December (Net) 83% 87% 85% 86% November 49% 44% 44% 46% In November before Thanksgiving 16% 15% 12% 13% From Thanksgiving (incl. Black Friday) 33% 29% 32% 33% December 34% 42% 41% 39% When do consumers expect to buy gifts?
- 26. Most Requested 2017 Holiday Tech Gift Wish List - Adults Smartphone, 8% TV, 9% Tablet, 5% Smartwatch, 3% Any type of camera, 3% VG console, 3% Laptop/Notebook, 9% Drone, 2% Home Robotic Vacuum, 2% Activity tracker, 2%
- 28. Innovation Continues to Grow Into Holiday Gift Mix Purchase Intent – Yes/Maybe 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 Video Game System Laptop PC Tablet Portable MP3 Smart Phone Wearable Activity Tracker Smart Watch Digital Assistant Digital Media Streaming Device Flying Drone
- 29. Big & Small Ticket Items Will Be Hot Sellers 0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30% 35% 40% $ $$$
- 30. Holiday Tech Gifts: Communication Devices Portable Battery Charger 30% Communication 52% 128 million U.S. adult gift givers Purchase Intent – Yes/Maybe % Mobile Device Case 33% Smartphone 27% Bluetooth Headset 19% (23%)(25%)
- 31. Holiday Tech Gifts: Computing Devices eReader 13% Notebook or Laptop 25% 2 in 1: 18% Not a 2 in 1: 17% Tablet 23% External Storage 18% Computing 50% Wireless Home Network Device 14% Multi-function Printer 14% Desktop Computer 11% 124 million U.S. adult gift givers Purchase Intent – Yes/Maybe %
- 32. Holiday Tech Gifts: Video Devices Any type of TV 20% Video 37% Blu-ray or DVD Player 14% Ultra HD Blu-ray Player 8% 91 million U.S. adult gift givers Purchase Intent – Yes/Maybe % Digital Media Player 22% (18%) Screen >=60” 44%
- 33. Holiday Tech Gifts: Audio Audio 53% Wi-Fi Enabled Speakers 20% Soundbar 15% Headphones (any kind) 38% Bluetooth Speaker 27% High Res Audio Player 8% Wireless/Wired headphones (NET) 88% Wireless headphones 69% Wired headphones 48% Wireless/Wired earbuds (NET) 77% Wired earbuds 54% Wireless earbuds 50% Sports or fitness headphones 42% 131 million U.S. adult gift givers Purchase Intent – Yes/Maybe % MP3 Player 14%
- 34. Holiday Tech Gifts: Gaming Video Game Accessory (including VR headsets) 25% Portable Game Device 11% Game Console 17% 79 million U.S. adult gift givers Gaming 32% Purchase Intent – Yes/Maybe %
- 35. Smartwatch 16% Holiday Tech Gifts: Wearables Activity Tracker 17% GPS Sports Watch 9% 67 million U.S. adult gift givers Wearables 27% Purchase Intent – Yes/Maybe %
- 36. Holiday Tech Gifts: Smart Home Smart Thermostat 12% Smart Home 33% Home Camera 13% Digital Assistant Device 15% Home Robotic Vacuum 10% Smart Door Lock 9% Other Smart Devices for the Home 16%82 million U.S. adult gift givers Purchase Intent – Yes/Maybe % (6%) (8%) (10%) (5%) (5%) (11%)
- 37. 2014 2015 2016 2017 Drone 3% 7% 9% 15% Connected or Digital Toys - - 11% 15% Pet-related Tech - - 6% 11% 3D Printer 4% 4% 6% 9% Smart or Connected Sports Equipment - - 6% 7% Holiday Tech Gifts: Emerging Tech Emerging Tech 32% 79 million U.S. adult gift givers Purchase Intent – Yes/Maybe %
- 39. Holiday Volume Forecast (Q4) Categories 2017 2016 Growth Drones <250g 1,040 800 30% Drones >250g 528 400 32% Total Drones 1,568 1,200 31% 4K UHD 6,676 4,500 48% Total TV 14,310 14,118 1% VR Headsets 2,679 700 283% Smartwatches 4,054 5,500 -26% Fitness Trackers 11,948 12,600 -5% Digital Assistants 4,406 3,600 22% Smart Thermostats 1,595 1,140 40%
- 40. Holiday Tech Spending Forecast 2015 2016 2017 $92,400 $95,870 $96,846 -1.8% 3.8% 1.0% October - December | Spending in Millions
- 41. Thank You! Lesley Rohrbaugh Sr. Manager, Market Research lrohrbaugh@CTA.tech CTA.tech/holiday Steve Koenig Sr. Director, Market Research skoenig@CTA.tech @koenigsteve
Editor's Notes
- Steve
- Lesley – US population estimates to come up with market sizing estimates which come back to the estimate of 247 million adults in the US today
- Lesley - Traffic will be down- comparable store sales will be lower; still planning to shop at stores at some point, but sales will likely will be lower (register rings at physical stores will be down); BF= now cyber november
- Steve
- Steve
- Steve
- Lesley – comment on method; we adjusted the way we examine holiday spending and asked consumers if they plan to spend and asked them precisely how much they plan to spend on tech gifts
- Lesley – another look at spending, most plan to spend about the same as last year and what’s interesting is that there are fewer people planning to spend less which is interesting because the spend more and spend less frequency is basically flat which is congruent with what we’re seeing in our annual forecast
- Lesley – among the roughly one in four people who plan to spend less, we’re seeing the it’s less about the economy and employment, but more about people having what they already need. What’s interesting is when we examined this segment last year, about a third had concerns around the political climate which still remains the same in 2017.
- Steve
- Steve
- Steve - Making unplanned purchase: Another omnishopper quality – impulse buys; Also, Alexa effect & deals of the day
- Lesley – over the years we’ve seen online purchase intent grow, but as intent to shop online increases we’re not seeing shopping in physical stores going down
- Lesley – Mass Merchants: one stop shop all year round for families, congruent with any other time of year; Elec Stores: stereotypical young male shopper, they tend to be more educated – folks that are looking for specific tech; Warehouse: demo is consistent with who’s typically shopping there all year long; Dept: and this group has a similar profile to those shopping at mass merchants – those looking for a diverse gift list…but across the board, all of these levels are generally higher although we’re seeing online sales continuing to grow, many consumers are returning to the store this year – an opportunity for retailers to regain some of those shoppers who may have been lost to online over the past few years
- Steve
- Steve
- Lesley – now more than ever with all the different deals taking place, consumers are relying on word of mouth; however, across the board consumers are using a variety of avenues to find these deals or have them directly sent through targeted ads, push notifications, and so forth – another trait of the rise of the omnishopper – but what’s interesting is that with all of the digital promotional programming, people are still talking to others about what deals are taking place (domino effect of all the deals and
- Lesley
- Steve
- Lesley - Omnishopper – targeted all the time; Consumers starting in Nov., with the highest level ever reported (particularly BF to the end of the month)
- Lesley – ties into when consumers expect deals; this is why we talk about cyber November – when they expect to buy is when they expect the best deals, nearly half wait to buy in November
- Steve
- Steve - Traditional & hub devices still lead the pack with gadgets and trendy tech also on the list; New this year is the intro of drones to the mix – a sign innovation is continuing to appear on the holiday wish list; Additionally, digital imaging products such as cameras are back on the list, likely driven by DI bundle deals and action cams
- Lesley
- Lesley – Hot & new typically does very well around holiday; we’ve seen this in the past as the trend data shows, over time this balances out, but we see innovation continue to percolate into holiday gift giving
- Steve
- Lesley – over half of holiday shoppers are planning to make a purchase in this category; smartphones are core to our device ownership these days and along with that we’re also seeing the products and accessories that go along with these gifts being popular like device cases and particularly the gift of power – a popular (plug CTA study)
- Lesley – laptops and tablets are about flat this year, but still a popular gift to give as well as receive; this is a pretty saturated market outside of holiday but still almost half of holiday shoppers will be looking in this category whether it be a computer or external storage device, continue to see great holiday deals here
- Steve
- Steve - Headphones remain popular – Increase in number of consumers listening anytime any place- mass content options like streaming, different sets of headphones for different activities (listening at home, at work, travelling, working out)
- Steve
- Lesley – may be more excitement around the smartwatch with the recent announcement from apple, as we did field this study a week before their product announcements, however, we expect this to not be tremendous increase in this category
- Lesley – interesting is that the intent to purchase has almost doubled, DA has almost tripled, adds up to a tremendous amount of excitement in this category anchored by digital assistants
- Lesley – drones (these aren’t small drones, these are high scale drones like from DJI) and pet tech (black horse this holiday season – CTA study sizing the market; popularity of pet products, Crutchfield website)
- Steve
- Steve
- Steve
- Lesley- copy of slides; Members will be able to download the full report within the next couple weeks. Any questions please feel free to reach out to Steve or I. Thank you!