De presentatie die Seth Shapiro gaf tijdens Media Future Week 2013. Meer informatie: www.mediafutureweek.nl

1. Los Angeles | NewYork | Amsterdam
The Future of Media Models
seth@SethShapiro.com @sethrshapiro facebook.com/seth.shapiro
Media FutureWeek

4. When the road is dark, use a Map

5. Brief History of 20th Century Media
Media Business Models Made Easy
Why TV Drives 21st Century Media
The Future of Media
Agenda

6. 2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC
Agenda
Brief History of 20th Century Media
Media Business Models Made Easy
Why TV Drives 21st Century Media
The Future of Media

9. Publishing
Content: News, magazines, books, trade pub
Distribution: Presses, delivery
Film
Content: Motion Picture Production
Distribution: Exhibition, regional/platform windows
Music
Content: Programming
Content: Recordings and performances
Distribution: Replication, delivery
2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC

10. Publishing

12. “Many of his writings were originally published serially, in monthly
installments or parts...
The practice lent his stories a particular rhythm, punctuated by
cliffhangers, to keep the public looking forward to the next installment.”

14. + = ?

15. • Cut direct deals with Printers
• Fires his Publishers
• Self-publishes his work
• Buys periodicals, gives them exclusives
•Towards the end of his life, reads his
books aloud

16. + = ?

17. +
Content Distribution Model
= $

18. Over time...

19. Publishing
Books
(Retail Sales)
Newspapers
(Subscription+ Ads)
Magazines
(Sales +Subscriptions + Ads)

20. Film

22. “In 1893, Thomas Edison
patented the first efficient
motion picture viewer, the
kinetoscope. Kinetoscope
parlors spread like crazy... ”

23. Edison’s Mistake
As he had with the phonograph,
Edison misjudged how the market
was to develop. He didn’t think
people would want to sit in
audiences...
– Edward Samuels

24. Edison’s Mistake
As he had with the phonograph,
Edison misjudged how the market
was to develop. He didn’t think
people would want to sit in
audiences...
– Edward Samuels

27. Over time...

28. Film Business
Ticket Sales Physical Sales Licensing/Rights

29. Music

31. “These talking machines are going to ruin the
artistic development of music in this country.
Today you hear these infernal machines going night and day.
We will not have a vocal cord left. The vocal cord will be
eliminated by a process of evolution, as was the tail
of man when he came from the ape.”

32. “These talking machines are going to ruin the
artistic development of music in this country.
We will not have a vocal cord left.The vocal cord will be
eliminated by a process of evolution, as was the tail of man
when he came from the ape.”

33. Over time...

34. Music Business Models
Physical Sales Tickets Licensing/Rights

35. 2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC
Publishing
Content:
Distribution:
Film
Content:
Distribution:
Television
Content:
Distribution:
Music
Content:
Distribution:
A Brief History of 20th Century Media
Drive to Efficiencies

36. Publishing
Content: Books, Newspapers, Magazines
Distribution: Presses, delivery
Film
Content: Motion Picture Production
Distribution: Exhibition, regional and platform rights
Television
Content: Programming and Advertising
Distribution: Broadcast, Cable, Satellite
Music
Content: Recordings and Performances
Distribution: Replication, Delivery
2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC
A Brief History of 20th Century Media
Drive to Efficiencies

38. The Walt Disney Company
• World's #1 media company by revenue
• Member US Dow 30
• #1 Cable and #1 Sports entity: ESPN
• Ownership of world's valuable cable franchises: ESPN
• Ownership of Big 4 US network: ABC
• Cable networks including Disney Channel,ABC Family, ESPN Family
• Walt Disney Pictures,Touchstone, BuenaVista, Miramax
• 11 global Disney Theme Parks
• Marvel Entertainment
•Disney Consumer Products
•Walt Disney Internet Group
•Disney Music Group
•Radio Disney
•Disney Interactive Media Group

39. The Big Six Media Giants: 2000
Walt Disney Company Disney Pictures Buena Vista Pictures Touchstone ESPN ABC WDIG
(Internet Group) Disneyland Parks
Time Warner HBO Warner Bros Turner Networks Warner Music New Line (formerly) AOL
Viacom CBS Paramount MTV Networks Showtime Nickelodeon BET CMT Comedy Central
News Corporation FOX Companies FX Networks FOX News Foxtel Wall Street Journal NY
Post London Times (formerly) DIRECTV
Comcast/NBC Universal Comcast Cable, NBC, MSNBC, CNBC, Universal Parks Telemundo,
USA Networks, Bravo
Sony Columbia Tri Star Sony Pictures Sony Music Sony Computer Sony Electronics

40. 2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC
Agenda
Brief History of 20th Century Media
Media Business Models Made Easy
Why TV Drives 21st Century Media
The Future of Media

41. Books
• A la carte
Newspapers and Magazines
• A la carte
• Subscription
• Advertising
Publishing Business Models

42. Ticket sales (a la carte)
Physical sales (a la carte)
Licensing/Rights
No Subscription or Advertising
Film Business Models

43. Music Business Models
• Album sales (major focus)
• Ticket sales
•Licensing/Rights
•Very little Advertising
•NO Subscription

44. 1 A la carte
2 Subscription
3 Advertising
4 Licensing/Rights (IP)
5 Ticket Sales
6 EnterpriseValue (being acquired, going public)
Media Business Models

45. 2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC
Agenda
Brief History of 20th Century Media
Media Business Models Made Easy
Why TV Drives 21st Century Media
The Future of Media

46. What is television?

47. Terrestrial Cable Satellite
3 Networks 4 Networks 6 Networks
Household Appliance
Telco
100s of Networks
What is television? [1950-1995]

48. What is television? [1995-2005]
Big screen in your living room
A community experience
Delivered by a big provider (cable etc.)
Professionally produced entertainment

49. What is Television?

50. What is Television?
An ecosystem
that allows for evolving business models

51. c. 1927: Philo Farnsworth invents his prototype
c. 1941: FCC adopts NTSC
c. 1948: CBS and NBC regularly scheduled broadcasts
c. 70s: Satellite (B2B) – Birth of Basic Cable Networks
c. 70-80s: High-End Consumer Satellite TV
c. 94: DBS – Mainstream Sat TV – Birth of Competition
c. 1999: Internet as a platform
c. 2000s: Increased bandwidth, iTunes video, IPTV, Torrents
c. 2010 Online and multi-platform video go mainstream
Brief History of Television

52. •Very limited choice
•Very broad audience
• Free to User
• Primary Business Model:Advertising
TV 1.0: Broadcast Television

53. Broadcast Business Model
• Massive volume
• Ratings driven
•Advertisers pay per spot
• Ratings point = 1% of HH (1,159,000 HH for 2010–11)
• Share = % of TVs in use that are tuned in
How is success measured?

54. The Grey Flannel Golden Age
Ratings point = 1% of HH (1,159,000 HH for 2010–11)
Share = % ofTVs in use that are tuned in
1952-53 I Love Lucy 67.3r
1980-81 Dallas: 34.5r
2005-06 American Idol : 11r
Arguably, the Broadcast TV Era peaks w ‘83 M*A*S*H Finale:
60r/77s (28 year record)

56. TV 2.0: The Cable Era

57. Cable
• Greatly expanded choice (100s)
• Smaller audiences: “Narrowcasting”
• Expensive to user
• Primary rev: Subscription
• Secondary $:Advertising
Broadcast
•Very limited choice (4)
•Very broad audience
• Free to User
• Primary rev:Advertising
• Secondary $: Device sales
TV 2.0: The Cable Era

59. Over time...
Subscription TV becomes the most powerful
media in world history.

60. Text
2002 2009
Comedy Central = $.13 per sub, per month

62. $.13 sub/m
x 12
x 99,700,000 HH
$155 million in subscription fees, per year, before advertising.

63. $.13 sub/m
x 12
x 99,700,000 HH
$155 million in subscription fees, per year, before advertising.
15 cable networks x avg $.20 per month = $3.6 billion.
ESPN = Over $6 billion per year in subscription alone.

64. MEDIA ECONOMICS
BY FAR, the most valuable assets in global media are cable
networks.
US MSO Subscriber Revenues = app. $135 billion per year.
Google’s 2010 Revenue = $28B

65. MEDIA ECONOMICS
BY FAR, the most valuable assets in global media are cable
networks.
US TV 2010 Subscriber Revenue = app. $135 billion per year.
Google’s 2010 Revenue = $28B

66. American Movie Classics
AMC was originally a premium cable channel that aired classic movies...
By 1989, the channel had 39 million subscribers in the United States.
– wikipedia

67. $.23 sub/m
x 12
x 88,000,000 HH
app. $155 million
AMC: app 88 million US households

68. 1. Experienced Producer has show idea.
2. He goes to HBO, SHO, NBC, CBS...
6. Network: “Get out of my office.”

69. 3. “I need $30 to make a great show”
[$2.3M x13 episodes]
4. Network: “Who are the stars?”, etc.
5. Producer: “No - it’s a period drama.”
6. Network: “Get out of my office.”

70. 3. “I need $30 to make a great show”
[$2.3M x13 episodes]
4. Network: “Who are the stars?”, etc.
5. Producer: “No - it’s a period drama.”
6. Network: “Get out of my office.”

71. No model.

72. Broadcast vs. Narrowcast
Goes to AMC: "You get .23 cents a house..."
"... what if we can double that?""... what if we can double that?"
What if we can build a premium brand?

73. What if we can build a
premium brand?
?

74. US $2.3 million
x 13 episodes
US$30,000,000
1.9 rating = No Way
"period drama"
Old model:

75. US $2.3 million
x 13 episodes
US$30,000,000 (est.)
Build brand, increase sub fee = "OK"
"period drama"
TV 3.0

77. US $2.3 million
x 13 episodes
US$30,000,000
1.9 rating = “No Way”
Build You a Brand = “OK”
Targeting Old Model vs. New

78. Matthew Weiner is the creator, executive producer, head writer, and
show runner of the AMC television series Mad Men.Weiner has received
eight Emmy Awards and three Golden Globe Awards for Mad Men. Mad
Men has won the Emmy Award for Outstanding Drama Series three
consecutive years (2008, 2009, 2010). Weiner was named one of the
2011 Time 100 Most Influential People In The World. --Wikipedia

79. “... Rainbow is angling for AMC to receive 50 cents a
subscriber per month from distributors in its next
round of negotiations.”
$.23 to $.50
$155M to $310M

80. American Movie Classics
.23 s/m x 12x 88M HH =
$253M
.75 s/m x 12x 98.7M HH =
$888M (floated)

81. Agenda
2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC
Brief History of 20th Century Media
Media Business Models Made Easy
Why TV Leads 21st Century Media
The Future of Media

82. 2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC
The Future of Media
Trend 1: The Second Screen is the New TV
Trend 2: Over The Top is the New Cable
Trend 3: Community is the New Network
Trend 4: Data is the New Advertising

86. CONNECTED TV AND CONSUMERS –
HILVERSUM, NETHERLANDS – FEBRUARY
7, 2012
Seventy percent of tablet owners and 68 percent of
smartphone owners said they use their devices while watching
television.

88. Turner Embraces Social TV, Interactive Ads via 'Conan' App
As part of a major push by Turner’s entertainment networks to embrace second-screen
viewing, users of the new Conan app (sponsored byAT&T) will be periodically greeted with
pop-ups within the app featuring information relevant to the show, such as facts about a
guest’s movie career. And soon enough, viewers will be able to buy tickets to those guests’
movies via the app.

89. CONAN

90. Turner Embraces Social TV, Interactive Ads via 'Conan' App
As part of a major push by Turner’s entertainment networks to embrace second-screen
viewing, users of the new Conan app (sponsored byAT&T) will be periodically greeted with
pop-ups within the app featuring information relevant to the show, such as facts about a
guest’s movie career. And soon enough, viewers will be able to buy tickets to those guests’
movies via the app.

91. The Second Screen...
becomes the TV itself.

92. 2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC
The Future of Media
Trend 1: The Second Screen is the New TV
Trend 2: Over The Top is the New Cable
Trend 3: Community is the New Network
Trend 4: Data is the New Advertising

93. Subscription 3.0

94. •
Founded
1997
as
subscription
DVD
delivery
service
•
Monthly
fee,
unlimited
rentals
•
Supported
DVD
sales
for
studios
•
Non-­‐premiere
movies
previous
season
TV
•
Great
recommendation
engine

96. 2013:
Net)lix
surpasses
Comcast
as
world’s
#1
subscription
video
service

99. Owned By:

100. •Advertising
• Subscription
• Intellectual Property (original programs)
• EnterpriseValue

101. 2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC
The Future of Media
Trend 1: The Second Screen is the New TV
Trend 2: Over The Top is the New Cable
Trend 3: Community is the New Network
Trend 4: Data is the New Advertising

103. Total population of Europe, 2011: 734,228,971 persons

104. Epic Meal Time is a YouTube cooking show known for creating extremely
high-calorie meals from meat (with emphasis on bacon) and alcohol .

105. United States population (April 1, 2013): 315,858,000
– Wikipedia

107. Machinima: #1 Content Channel on YouTube

108. 2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC
The Future of Media
2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC
Trend 1: The Second Screen is the New TV
Trend 2: Over The Top is the New Cable
Trend 3: Community is the New Network
Trend 4: Data is the New Advertising

109. • Are you buying diapers in the morning, or your third BMW?

114. h"p://www.grammy.com/live

119. Future Media Trends
• Efficiency: Customer data transforms advertising
• Constituency: Communities become the new networks
• Conversation: Media moves from monologue to dialogue
• Privacy,Redefined: If you’re not paying, you are the product

120. 2010 New Amsterdam Media LLC
Agenda
Brief History of 20th Century Media
Media Business Models Made Easy
Why TV Drives 21st Century Media
The Future of Media
Golden Rules for Media Entrepreneurs

121. 1. Solve a Problem
“Our value proposition has been in remembering.”

122. 2. Skate Where the Puck is Going

123. 3. The #1 Question To Ask Successful People:

124. “How can I help?”
3. The #1 Question To Ask Successful People:

125. 4. The Secret to Succeeding in Media

126. “Nobody Knows Anything.”
4. The Secret to Succeeding in Media

127. "Anything new, anything worth doing, can't be recognized."
- Picasso
5. Be The Change

128. Los Angeles | NewYork | Amsterdam
DANK U WEL!
seth@SethShapiro.com @sethrshapiro facebook.com/seth.shapiro