Market analysis from TheMarketDetective.com that utilizes the Elliott wave principle and Fibonacci analysis.

1. 12/7/20089:06 PM Pacific
Let’s revisit the intermediate-term picture. This is what I believe to be the most probable
wave count unfolding in the daily S&P cash market. This pattern is called an Expanded
Flat. It is an A-B-C pattern that consists of 3 waves up, A, followed by 3 waves down
that extend below the technical end of wave 3, B, then, most commonly, travel back up a
1.618 extension of wave A in 5 waves to completes wave C, and the pattern.
The 1.382 ratio shown is a common B wave extension of wave A in Expanded flats.
If this thesis is correct, everything since the end of wave 3 is part of the pattern and the
pattern should complete around 1070. The end of the pattern would complete wave 4 of
five waves down from the October 2007 high.
How do we get there from here? Looking at the futures, Friday’s move has already
extended considerably. Here are 2 probable options for continuing to 910, the target I set

2. 12/7/20089:06 PM Pacific
last Friday morning. Price either retraces from right here (890), to about 872, and makes a
final push to complete the move to 910, or powers right to the target without a real
retracement.
From this initial target, up to a .618 retracement is probable after which we will probably
continue the gains. Here I show a .500 retracement down from 910.
If a larger retracement than 870 transpires overnight in the futures, before a break above
the 11/30 high of 897, caution is advised and I will present alternate scenarios that I
currently have on the back burner because I believe they are less likely than the one I am
showing.
TMD/DW
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