1. Green Agricultural Policy
and the Commons
Dr Darko Znaor
Independent Environmental Consultant
Vis, August 24, 2014

2. Contents
1. Agric. & the commons & economy
2. Western Balkans agri study
3. Conceptual & practical challenges
4. Results
5. Lessons learnt & conclusions

3. Agriculture
&
the commons

4. Agriculture & the commons
• Food
• Land, water & genetic resources
• Provision of ecosystem services
• Socio-cultural & spiritual dimension
REFLECTED IN POLICY

5. Agri ecosystem services affect well being
1. Security - shelter and the ability to reduce
vulnerability to ecological shocks and stress.
2. Basic material for a good life (income &
livelihood.
3. Health - access to nourishment, freedom
from diseases, access to adequate and clean
drinking water, clean air, etc.

6. Agri commons vs. economy

7. How much and who should pay it?

8. HBS’s Western Balkans
agri study in a nutshell

9. ? What if... in B&H, HR, MNE and SRB

10. Policy makers

11. Farming reality in WB

12. TRANSPORT
Agri inputs
TRADE
ENERGY
Energy
FARMING
SERVICES
INDUSTRY
Fertilisers Pesticides Vet. medicine Feedstuff Machinery
Raw material
Agri inputs
Knowl.

13. Impact on
Labour force
State of environment
Production
GDP
Quality of life
Economy
Food security
Socio-econom.

15. GVA agriculture & fertiliser manufacturing
minus environmental costs fUTURO
minus public expenditures
= pURO = real added-value

16. Environmental
costs & public
expenditures

17. Environmental externalities
negative
negative positive
• damage to soil, water, air
• biodiversity loss
• non-renewable resource use
(energy, phosphate, peat)
• biodiversity maintenance
• ecosystems functioning
(C sequestration, water, etc.)
• damage to soil, water, air
• biodiversity loss
• non-renewable resource use
(energy, phosphate, peat)

18. Damage to air/climate

19. Damage to water

20. Damage to soil

22. Hidden subsidies

25. Conceptual & practical
challenges

26. 0
200,000
400,000
600,000
800,000
1,000,000
1,200,000
1,400,000
2012
2014
2016
2018
2020
2022
2024
2026
2028
2030
2032
2034
2036
2038
2040
2042
2044
2046
2048
2050
hectares
108%
per year
30%
per year
10%
per year

27. 67 67 65 64
44
28
80
70
60
50
40
30
20
10
0
Wheat Barley Sugar
beet
Grain
maize
Cows' milk Potatoes
% of EU-15 yields

28. 182
153
148
141 138
121 117
103
63 62
48
40
200
180
160
140
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
% of conventional yield

29. yields
price output
input 1
input 2
prod. costs
mech.
GM transaction

30. Pricing externalities...
... a big methodological challenge

31. Only a fraction of ecosystem services included

32. Public expenditure
negative
positive
• agricultural subsidies
• hidden subsidy to AC ind.
• investments in gas pipelines
• administration
• research and education
• road & ditches maintenance
• pesticide disposal
• incidental pollutions
• storage/cooling?
• damage to human health?
• health care?
• food security
• employment
• landscape/recreation space
• others?

33. RESULTS

34. Results BASELINE

35. 288,306
205,760 47,042
453,910
995,018
1,000,000
900,000
800,000
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
B&H HR MNE SER Total
AWU

36. 39,893
87,094
5,590
212,431
345,007
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
150,000
100,000
50,000
0
B&H HR MNE SER Total
CU

37. 774
1,501
106
1,879
4,260
4,500
4,000
3,500
3,000
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
B&H HR MNE SER Total
MEUR

38. 624
793
68
1,544
128
154
26
475
96
26
52
73
6
264
2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
B&H HR MNE SER
MEUR
Air Climate Water Soil

39. 40
385
0
103
78
26
28
55
600
500
400
300
200
100
0 B&H HR MNE SER
MEUR
Direct payments
Agric. fuel
Subsd. gas price
Others

40. 2,500
2,000
1,500
1,000
500
0
-500
-1,000
B&H HR
MNE
SER
-99
-169
6
-570
68 553
0 140
805
1,117
100
2,309
774
1,501
106
1,879
MEUR
RVA Public expend. Envir. costs GVA

41. DEVELOPMENT
SCENARIOS

42. 995,018
895,516
1,089,912
1,119,417
1,150,000
1,100,000
1,050,000
1,000,000
950,000
900,000
850,000
800,000
750,000
700,000
Baseline BAU ECO ECO+
AWU

43. 345,007
310,002
373,096
460,626
500,000
450,000
400,000
350,000
300,000
250,000
200,000
Baseline BAU ECO ECO+
CU

44. 4,260
3,931
4,866
6,366
7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
Baseline BAU ECO ECO+
MEUR

46. 83
80
46 33
100 100
0 0
104 104 104 104
528 528 528 528
800
750
700
650
600
550
500
450
400
Baseline BAU ECO ECO+
MEUR
Direct payments
Agric. fuel
Subsd. gas price
Others

47. 7,000
6,000
5,000
4,000
3,000
2,000
1,000
0
-1,000
Baseline
BAU
ECO
ECO+
-832
-449 551
2,051
761
744
732 732
4,260
3,931
4,866
6,366
4,331
3,635 3,583
3,583
MEUR
RVA Public expend. Envir. costs GVA

48. BAU
Baseline
ECO+
ECO
350
300
200
150
100
50
0
250
Economic
performance Employment
Food
production
166
110
108
347
113 134
146
90
90
100
100
100
Baseline
BAU
ECO
ECO+

51. Key policy – relevant findings
1. Agric. in the Western Balkans does matter
2. Current agri policy provide a ‘low profile’ support to OF
3. Current farming does not create any RVA
4. Key = build soil fertility and human and social capital
5. Conversion to OF provides more jobs
6. Conversion to OF produces more food
7. Going organic is “greener”
8. Going organic is more profitable
9. Business as usual is not an option

52. Additional considerations
1. Acounting true cost of farming is KEY
2. Pricing ecosystem services – fair & possible???
3. What is a proper policy mix?
4. Introduction of green agri accounting?

53. Human and social capital ???

54. THANK YOU!
darko@znaor.eu