Analysis of Recessionary trens for US & Japan for last 50 years

1. There is an old joke among economists that states: A Recession is when your neighbour loses his job. A depression is when you lose your job.

2. Presentation On Recession In Japan & United States Guided By: Prof. Sujata Jhamb Submitted By: Gaurav Surana Anshul Aggarwal Anuj Karwa Rahul Goyal Rahul Rathi

3. Outline Business Cycle What causes to recession? History Of Recessions How Fiscal & Monetary policy affect economy? US Recession Macro Economic Measures and its impact in USA Japanese Bubble Macro Economic Measures and its impact in Japan Comparison Japanese Mystery

4. Business Cycle The business cycle is the periodic but irregular up-and-down movements in economic activity, measured by fluctuations in real GDP and other macroeconomic variables A business cycle is identified as a sequence of four phases: Contraction (A slowdown in the pace of economic activity) Trough (The lower turning point of a business cycle, where a contraction turns into an expansion) Expansion (A speedup in the pace of economic activity) Peak (The upper turning of a business cycle) A recession occurs if a contraction is severe enough... A deep trough is called a slump or a depression.

6. Recession

7. What is Recession ? A recession is a contraction phase of the business cycle. The official agency in charge of declaring that the economy is in a state of recession is the National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER). They define recession as a "significant decline in economic activity lasting more than a few months“, which is normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales. For this reason, the official designation of recession may not come until after we are in a recession for six months or even longer Some economists also suggest that a recession occurs when the natural growth rate in GDP is less than the average of 2%. Typically, a normal economic recession lasts for approximately 1 year.

8. Contraction Period

9. What Causes Recession ? An economy which grows over a period of time tends to slow down the growth as a part of the normal economic cycle. An economy typically expands for 6-10 years and tends to go into a recession for about six months to 2 years. A recession normally takes place when consumers lose confidence in the growth of the economy and spend less. This leads to a decreased demand for goods and services, which in turn leads to a decrease in production, lay-offs and a sharp rise in unemployment. Investors spend less as they fear stocks values will fall and thus stock markets fall on negative sentiment.

10. History of Recession

11. History of Recession

12. History of Recession

13. Recession Or Not ? According to numbers published by Bureau of Economic Analysis in May 2008, the GDP growth of the previous two quarters was positive. As one common definition of a recession is negative economic growth for at least two consecutive fiscal quarters, some analysts suggest this indicates that the U.S. economy was not in a recession at the time However this estimate has been disputed by some analysts who argue that if inflation is taken into account, the GDP growth was negative for the past two quarters, making it a technical recession

14. Causes Of US Recession The general consensus is that a recession is primarily caused by the actions taken to control the money supply in the economy and fall in aggregate demand which is not supplemented by price adjustments The Federal Reserve is responsible for maintaining an ideal balance between money supply, interest rates, and inflation When the Fed loses balance in this equation, the economy can spiral out of control, forcing it to correct itself Relaxed policies in lending practices making it easy to borrow money.The economic activity became unsustainable resulting in the economy coming to a near halt Recession can also be caused by factors like : Supply Shock - Natural Disasters, Sharp change in exchange rates, War Demand Shock – Energy price changes

15. How Fiscal & Monetary Policy Affect the Economy Monetary Policy : Expansionary Monetary policy helps lower interest rates, boosting investment spending and interest sensitive consumer spending.It also lowers the international exchange value of currency which also boosts exports and imports Fiscal Policy : Expansion of budget deficit also boosts aggregate spending. Undertaken through higher govt. spending, tax cuts etc.

16. U S Recession

18. To counter this Fed Reserve increased fund rates from 5% to 10%.

20. Fund rate cuts from as high as 13% to 5.25% was also implemented.

21. Huge tax rebate, individual income tax credits and deductions, reduced corporate tax.

25. Fiscal policy to boost on public confidence – Reduction in marginal tax rates and individual saving incentives.

28. Terrorist attack – resulting in undermined public confidence which leads fall in spending and thus fall in aggregate demand

29. GDP which grew at average 4% in mid 90’s fall to 1.1% in 2001

32. Crisis in the US Sub-prime is a high risk debt offered to people with poor credit worthiness or unstable incomes. Major banks have landed in trouble after people could not pay back loans The housing market soared on the back of easy availability of loans The realty sector boomed but could not sustain the momentum for long, and it collapsed under the gargantuan weight of crippling loan defaults Foreclosures spread like wildfire putting the US economy on shaky ground. This, coupled with rising oil prices at $100 a barrel, slowed down the growth of the economy

33. Liquidity Crisis In early July, depositors at the Los Angeles offices of IndyMac Bank frantically lined up in the street to withdraw their money. On July 11, IndyMac - the largest mortgage lender in the US – was seized by federal regulators. The mortgage lender succumbed to the pressures of tighter credit, tumbling home prices and rising foreclosures During the weekend of September13–14, Lehman Brothers declared bankruptcy after failing to find a buyer Bank of America agreed to purchase Merrill Lynch, the insurance company AIG sought a bridge loan from the Federal Reserve And a consortium of 10 banks created an emergency fund of at least $70 billion to deal with the effects of Lehman's closure

34. Liquidity Crisis The biggest bank failure in history occurred on September 25 when JP Morgan Chase agreed to purchase the banking assets of Washington Mutual The year 2008 as of September 17 has seen 81 public corporations file for bankruptcy in the United States, already higher than the 78 in 2007 Lehman Brothers being the largest bankruptcy in U.S. history also makes 2008 a record year in terms of assets with Lehman's $691 billion in assets all past annual totals The year also saw the ninth biggest bankruptcy with the failure of IndyMac Bank On September 29, Citigroup beat out Wells Fargo to acquire the ailing Wachovia's assets will pay $1 a share, or about $2.2 billion In addition, the FDIC said that the agency would absorb the company‘s losses above $42 billion; in exchange they would receive $12 billion in preferred stock and warrants from Citigroup in return for assuming that risk

35. Measures to TackleRecession Tax cuts are the first step that a government fighting recessionary trends or a full-fledged recession proposes to do. Fed Reserve has Fund rates from 6% to 1% now. The government also hikes its spending to create more jobs and boost the manufacturing and services sectors and to prop up the economy. The government also takes steps to help the private sector come out of the crisis In the current case, the Bush government has proposed a bailout, of the cost of the Treasury of $700 billion U.S. dollars Other Fiscal policy measures and stimulus proposed.

36. Japanese Recession

37. The Japanese Story The robust growth that Japan had experienced since the end of World War II came to an end when Japan`s bubble economy collapsed at the beginning of the 1990s In 1989 the Bank of Japan changed to a tight-money policy 1990 the Ministry of Finance requested banks restrict their financing of property assets New land taxation laws (landholding tax) Financial institutions suffered from nonperforming loans Companies` three excesses: – Excess capital investment – Excess employment – Excessive debt Deflationary spiral and higher unemployment This period is often called the “Lost Decade“

38. The Lost Decade 1991 – 1995: Asset deflation Reversed wealth effect : “Vicious cycle” 1995 – 1996: Yen Appreciation Massive fiscal expansion 1997 – 1999: Fiscal contraction Banking crisis 1999 – onwards: Deflation, Liquidity trap Social security system crisis

39. Vicious Cycle

40. The Slump Output Growth, Unemployment, and Inflation, Japan 1990-2001 Inflation Rate (%) Unemployment Rate (%) Year Output Growth Rate (%) 2.4 2.1 5.3 1990 3.0 2.1 3.1 1991 1.7 2.2 0.9 1992 0.6 2.5 0.4 1993 0.1 2.9 1.0 1994 0.4 3.1 1.6 1995 0.8 3.4 3.5 1996 0.4 3.4 1.8 1997 0.1 3.4 1.1 1998 1.4 4.1 0.8 1999 1.6 4.7 1.5 2000 1.6 5.0 0.7 2001

41. Japan Price Level

43. The Rise and Fall of the Nikkei There are two reasons for the increase in a stock price: A change in the fundamental value of the stock price, which depends on the expected present value of future dividends. A speculative bubble: Investors buy at a higher price simply because they expect the price to go even higher in the future.

44. The Rise and Fall of the Nikkei Stock Prices and Dividends, Japan, 1980-2001 The increase in stock prices in the 1980s and the subsequent decrease have not been associated with a parallel movement in dividends.

45. The Rise and Fall of the Nikkei The fact that dividends remained flat while stock prices increased strongly suggests that a large bubble existed in the Nikkei. The rapid fall in stock prices had a major impact on spending—consumption was less affected, but investment collapsed.

46. The Rise and Fall of the Nikkei

47. The Failure of Monetaryand Fiscal Policy Monetary policy was used, but it was used too late, and when it was used, it faced the twin problems of the liquidity trap and deflation. The Bank of Japan (BoJ) cut the nominal interest rate, but it did so slowly, and the cumulative effect of low growth was such that inflation had turned to deflation. As a result, the real interest rate was higher than the nominal interest rate.

48. The Failure of Monetaryand Fiscal Policy The Nominal Interest Rate and the Real Interest Rate in Japan, 1990-2001 Japan is now in a liquidity trap: The nominal interest rate is close to zero. Deflation implies that even at a zero nominal interest rate, the real interest rate is positive.

49. The Failure of Monetaryand Fiscal Policy Fiscal policy was used as well. Taxes decreased at the start of the slump, and there was a steady increase in government spending throughout the decade. Fiscal policy helped, but it was not enough to increase spending and output.

50. The Failure of Monetaryand Fiscal Policy Government revenues and spending in Japan, 1990-2001 Fiscal policy limited the decline, but did not lead to a recovery. In the absence of increased government spending, output would have declined even more.

52. What Comes Next? Policy recommendations for the Japanese economy include: Create inflation: More inflation is good because the real interest rate would decrease, thereby stimulating spending and output. Clean up the banking system: Too many bad firms continue to be financed by the banks, thereby preventing the good firms from obtaining financing at reasonable terms.

53. Comparison

55. Comparison Japan also had a stock market bubble, which burst a year earlier than that in property. This hurt banks, because they counted part of their equity holdings in other firms as capital. But its impact on households was modest, because only 30% of the population held shares, compared with over half of Americans The Bank of Japan (BoJ) began to lower interest rates in July 1991, soon after property prices began to decline. The discount rate was cut from 6% to 1.75% by the end of 1993. Two years after American house prices started to slide, the Fed funds rate has fallen from 5.25% to 2% Japan also gave its economy a big fiscal boost. Similar to America’s budget boost this year But deflation also emerged in 1995, pushing up real interest rates and increasing the real burden of debt

56. GDP Growth Rates

57. Comparison America’s inflation rate of above 5% is an advantage. Not only are real interest rates negative, but inflation is also helping to bring the housing market back to fair value with a smaller fall in prices than otherwise But in another way America is more exposed than Japan was. When its bubble burst in 1991, Japan’s households saved 15% of their income. By 2001 saving had fallen to 5%, which helped to prop up consumer spending. America’s saving rate of close to zero leaves no such cushion.

58. Comparison America is spreading the costs of its housing bust across other countries. Foreigners hold a large slice of American mortgage-backed securities. Sovereign-wealth funds have provided new capital for American banks. And America’s booming exports have helped to support its economy, thanks to the cheap dollar. In contrast, the yen’s sharp appreciation after Japan’s bubble burst hurt exports at the same time as domestic demand was being squeezed.

59. Japanese Mystery !!! Monetary and fiscal relief were necessary but not sufficient to revive Japan’s economy The missing ingredient was a clean-up of the banking system. Japanese banks hid their bad loans beneath opaque corporate structures, and curtailed new lending to profitable businesses. A vicious circle developed, whereby banks bad loans depressed growth which then created more bad loans. In Japan it took a long while before the political will was there to use taxpayers’ money to plug the banking system The Expenditure by the Japanese govt. in public works, regional infrastructure projects, was of little help because relatively little of the money spent reached those who have been made unemployed. And the massive outlay means government borrowing has reached 180% of GDP, higher than any other industrialised country.

60. Bad Loans Are Bad !

61. Questions ???