1. PLANET EARTH AND ITS LIMITS IN FOOD PRODUCTION AND
POPULATION GROWTH
Fernando Alcoforado *
After 200 years of economic growth and economic development, brought by the
Industrial Revolution, the world population increased significantly with the reduction of
mortality rates and growing life expectancy. Today, on average, people live longer and
better. Between 1800 and 2010 the world population increased approximately seven-
fold (from 1 billion to 7 billion inhabitants) and the economy (GDP) increased by about
50 times. The average consumption of humanity shot, but the growth in wealth took
place at the cost of depletion of natural resources of the planet.
A good way to measure the impact of human beings on planet Earth is ecological
footprint that is a methodology used to measure the amounts of land and water (in terms
of global hectares - gha) that would be needed to sustain the population's consumption.
The ecological footprint is a calculation that every person, every country and ultimately
the world's population consumes natural resources. It is measured in hectares, and six
categories are evaluated: farmland, pastures, forests, fishing areas, carbon demands and
land for the construction of buildings.
Considering five types of surface (farmland, pastures, forests, fishing areas and built-up
areas), the planet Earth has approximately 13.4 billion global hectares (gha) of
biologically productive land and water according to the data 2010 from Global
Footprint Network the ecological footprint of humanity reached the milestone of 2.7
global hectares (gha) per person in 2007 for a world population of 6.7 billion people on
the same date (according to the UN) [See article A terra no limite (The land on the edge)
of José Eustaquio limit Diniz Alves available on website
<http://planetasustentavel.abril.com.br/noticia/ambiente/terra-limite-humanidade-
recursos-naturais-planeta-situacao-sustentavel-637804.shtml>].
With humanity's ecological footprint of 2.7 global hectares (gha) per person means that
to sustain the population on Earth of 6.7 billion people would be required 18.1 billion
gha (2.7 x 6.7 gha billion inhabitants) which is more than 13.4 billion global hectares
(gha) of biologically productive land and water of the Earth, a fact that indicates that
already exceeded the planet's ability to regenerate the average level of current world
consumption. Today, due to the current rate of consumption, the demand for natural
resources exceeds 50% spare capacity of the Earth.
If this demand continues to rise at current rates, by 2030, with a global population
estimated at 8.3 billion people, will need two Earths to satisfy her. What is the outlook
for the near future? According to data from the UN Population Division, in 2050 the
world population will reach 8 billion people in low projection, 9 billion, the average
projection, and 10 billion, the high projection. More likely is that the Earth has another
2 billion people in the next forty years making it impractical to maintain the standards
of current production and consumption of the world population.
One of the key issues that should present is how many people the Earth can support.
Related to this question comes another about what would be the exact limit human
population growth? Does water scarcity, food scarcity, pollution levels or other factors
that limit the growth of world population? After considering all possible constraints, we
can conclude that the food supply will determine the growth of the world population.
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2. In the publication of Our Common Future of UN World Commission on Environment
and Development (Publisher Getulio Vargas Foundation, 1991), some researchers have
established the potential "theory" of global food production. For them, the area used to
grow food would be about 1.5 billion hectares (close to the current level) and average
productivity could reach five tons of grain equivalent per hectare, ie two and a half
times over the current productivity.
Taking into account the production areas designed to pasture and marine sources,
"potential" total stands at eight tons of grain equivalent. The average current global
energy consumption in vegetable foods, seeds and animal feed is about 6000 calories a
day, ranging from a minimum of 3000 and a maximum of 15 000 between countries,
depending on levels of meat consumption. Taking into account the average of
consumption, the production potential of the world's food could sustain just over 11
billion people.
It should be noted that, from 2050, the world population will exceed 10 billion people.
With a population of more than 10 billion people, the planet Earth could not resist such
demands on natural resources. If the average consumption of foods to increase, for
example, 9000 calories a day, you can only serve a population equivalent to Earth's 7.5
billion inhabitants. Many scientists believe that the Earth has a carrying capacity of 9-10
billion people.
Even in the case of maximum efficiency, in which all cultivated grains were devoted to
humans for food (instead of cattle, which is an inefficient way to convert energy into
plant food energy), there is still a limit. "If everyone agrees to become vegetarian,
leaving little or nothing for the cattle, 1.5 billion hectares of arable land would support
about 10 billion people" [See Article Quantas pessoas o planeta aguenta? (How many
people the planet can handle?) available on website <http://hypescience.com/quantas-
pessoas-o-planeta-aguenta/>].
The Cornell University in the United States developed studies on the ability of food
production on the planet. One study notes that the Earth is only able to feed 2 billion
people with the same standard of living of the developed capitalist countries. This
means that the higher the standard of living of the population of the Earth, ie, the higher
is the level of your food intake, the greater the requirement that their population is
smaller.
Given the findings of several studies on the impact of population growth on
development, it is clear that something must be done now to prevent a catastrophe that
lies ahead in the next 50 years. It is imperative that governments around the world to
adopt policies that contribute to the balance between population size and resources
available on planet Earth, on one hand, and the rate of increase of the population and the
economy's capacity to meet their basic needs not only in the present but, on the other
hand, for the future generations.
*Fernando Alcoforado, 73, engenheiro e doutor em Planejamento Territorial e Desenvolvimento Regional
pela Universidade de Barcelona, professor universitário e consultor nas áreas de planejamento estratégico,
planejamento empresarial, planejamento regional e planejamento de sistemas energéticos, é autor dos
livros Globalização (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1997), De Collor a FHC- O Brasil e a Nova (Des)ordem
Mundial (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 1998), Um Projeto para o Brasil (Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2000),
Os condicionantes do desenvolvimento do Estado da Bahia (Tese de doutorado. Universidade de
Barcelona, http://www.tesisenred.net/handle/10803/1944, 2003), Globalização e Desenvolvimento
(Editora Nobel, São Paulo, 2006), Bahia- Desenvolvimento do Século XVI ao Século XX e Objetivos
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3. Estratégicos na Era Contemporânea (EGBA, Salvador, 2008), The Necessary Conditions of the
Economic and Social Development- The Case of the State of Bahia (VDM Verlag Dr. Müller
Aktiengesellschaft & Co. KG, Saarbrücken, Germany, 2010), Aquecimento Global e Catástrofe
Planetária (P&A Gráfica e Editora, Salvador, 2010), Amazônia Sustentável- Para o progresso do Brasil e
combate ao aquecimento global (Viena- Editora e Gráfica, Santa Cruz do Rio Pardo, São Paulo, 2011) e
Os Fatores Condicionantes do Desenvolvimento Econômico e Social (Editora CRV, Curitiba, 2012), entre
outros.
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