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Our Panelist
Lindsay Culbreath, CMHS, CHIA
Senior Director of Business Development & Marketing
STR
Latest STR data,
trends and forecast
Accessing destination
specific market
conditions with your
CVB
Managing
expectations and
improving
negotiations
Our webinar roadmap
Understanding Market Conditions of the
U.S. Hotel Industry
Lindsay Culbreath
Senior Director, Business Development & Marketing
Lculbreath@str.com
Lindsay_STR
© 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR
(collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR.
No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
In Review
Total U.S. Performance
Group vs. Transient
Pipeline & Forecasts
OCC 65.6% ▴1.7% RECORD
Metric No. Status Remarks
ROOM REV $142B ▴7.4% RECORD
OCC ROOMS 1.2B ▴2.9% RECORD
AVAIL ROOMS 1.8B ▴1.1% RECORD
ADR $120 ▴4.4% RECORD
REVPAR $79 ▴6.3% RECORD
U.S. Hotels YE 2015
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Supply Growth Now Back Over 1%. Demand Growth Slows.
-0.8
-4.7
-7.1
7.7
2.6
-8
-4
0
4
8
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Supply % Change
Demand % Change
1.2
2.9
4.0
Total U.S. – Supply & Demand % Change
12 MMA, January 1990 to January 2016
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
2 Million More Rooms Available Per Month
1.1 1.1
1.4
1.5 1.4
1.6
1.7
1.6
1.8
1.9
2.0
2.2
January February March April May June July August September October November December
U.S. Supply Change (millions of room nights)
2015 by Month
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
ADR Growth Steady. Occ Growth Decelerating Rapidly.
-3.4
-6.7
-9.7
1.4
6.8
7.5
4.3
-10
-5
0
5
1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014
Occ % Change
ADR % Change
Total U.S. – ADR & Occ % Change
12 MMA, January 1990 to January 2016
RevPAR Growth: It’s Going To Be OK (but Not Great)
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
15
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
RevPAR % Change
January 1990 to January 2016
56 Months 71 Months80 Months 31 Mo
Scales RevPAR Composition: ADR Driven
0.4 0.6 0.6
2.1
1.6 1.6
3.7
3.9
4.8
4.3
4.2 3.9
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy
ADR % Change
Occupancy % Change
4.5
5.4
6.4
5.8
5.5
RevPAR % Change by Contribution of Occ / ADR % Change, by Scale
12 MMA January 2016
4.1
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
+9.4%
Anaheim, CA
Top 5 / Bottom 2 – RevPAR Growth Markets
Full Year 2015
Phoenix, AZ
Dallas, TX
Houston, TX
Tampa, FL
Nashville, TN
New York, NY
+12.8%
+10.0%
-3.3%
+11.1%
+13.8%
-1.7%
4 Markets with Double Digit RevPAR Growth
Transient ADR Growth Subsides Despite High Occupancies
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Demand % Change ADR % Change
5.9%
2.5%
Transient Demand and ADR % Change
12 MMA, January 2012 – January 2016
NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (Luxury & Upper Upscale classes)
5.4%
3.7%
Group Demand Growth Slows Rapidly
-2%
-1%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016
Demand % Change
ADR % Change
3.8%
1.9%
Group Demand and ADR % Change
12 MMA, January 2012 – January 2016
NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (Luxury & Upper Upscale classes)
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
13.5
9.5 9.2 8.5 8.1 8.1 7.4
6.5 6.4 6.2 5.9
5.2 4.7 4.4 4.3 3.7 3.5 2.9
1.3 1.3 0.9
-0.1 -0.3
-5.5 -5.5
Group RevPAR % Change, Top 25 Markets
Full Year 2015
Group RevPAR Declines in 4 Markets
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Meeting Requirements
Considerations Rated “Very Important” in Site Selection
Meeting planners are more demanding than ever in site selection
50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
Clean/attractive city
Attractive conference hotels
# of hotel rooms available
Convenient airline service
Easy for delegates to get to
Food and lodging costs
Travel costs to destination
Good value for the money
2015
2013
COSTS
CONVENIENCE
CLEAN/
ATTRACTIVE
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
What Impact do Events Have on your Destination?
Source: STR Compression Analysis
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Phase February 2016 February 2015 Difference % Change
In Construction 150,406 128,874 21,532 16.7
Final Planning 185,607 152,216 29,391 18.8
Planning 161,396 150,428 10,968 7.3
Under Contract
Pipeline
497,409 435,518 61,891 14.2
U.S. Pipeline, by Phase (Rooms)
February 2016 vs 2015
Construction Today Will Impact 2016 / 2017
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
7.7
12.9
50.9 50.3
5.7
1.5
20.5
Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated
U.S. Pipeline – Rooms Under Construction, ‘000s Rooms, by Scale
January 2016
68%
Limited Service Construction Has Been Strong For 2 Years
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Construction In Top 26 Markets: 20 With 2%+ Of Supply
U.S. Pipeline – Top 26 Markets, U/C Rooms as % of Existing Supply
January 2016
Market Rooms U/C % Of Existing
New York, NY 14,544 12.30%
Miami/Hialeah, FL 3,896 7.50%
Houston, TX 5,553 6.90%
Seattle, WA 2,872 6.70%
Denver, CO 2,756 6.30%
Minneapolis/St Paul, MN-WI 2,487 6.30%
Nashville, TN 2,163 5.60%
Philadelphia, PA-NJ 2,443 5.30%
Dallas, TX 4,278 5.30%
Los Angeles/Long Beach, CA 4,630 4.70%
Anaheim/Santa Ana, CA 2,478 4.40%
Boston, MA 1,980 3.80%
San Diego, CA 1,951 3.20%
Washington, DC-MD-VA 3,339 3.10%
Chicago, IL 3,302 3.00%
Detroit, MI 1,264 3.00%
Tampa/St Petersburg, FL 1,343 3.00%
Phoenix, AZ 1,536 2.50%
Las Vegas, NV 3,905 2.30%
Orlando, FL 2,454 2.00%
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Total U.S. – Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year)
2016 - 2017
Outlook
2016
Forecast
2017
Forecast
Supply 1.7% 1.9%
Demand 2.3% 2.1%
Occupancy 0.6% 0.2%
ADR 4.4% 4.3%
RevPAR 5.0% 4.5%
Robust RevPAR Growth Still Ahead
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Take-Aways
Record levels of supply & more on the way
Growth rates are slowing
Cautiously optimistic
Stay informed!
© 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
Establish Your Research Foundation
1
• Contact STR’s Business Development Team:
industrypartners@str.com or +1 (615) 824 8664 ext 3504
2
• Determine questions you’re trying to answer
• Rate negotiations
• New supply in the market
3
• We’ll help match STR’s products to meet your needs
• Trends, Market Pipeline, Forecasts, etc.
Thank You!
© 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved.
Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR
(collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR.
No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.
Lindsay Culbreath
Senior Director, Business Development & Marketing
Lculbreath@str.com
Lindsay_STR
www.linkedin.com/in/LindsayCulbreath
7 Types of Consultative Advice
to Seek From Your CVB
1) Perspective
2) Expertise and Specialized Knowledge
3) Best Practices and Proven Methodology
4) Strategic Mindset
5) Analytical Horsepower and Data Mining
6) Advocacy
7) Cost Savings and Extension of Staff
ANALYTICAL HORSEPOWER &
DATA MINING
“In today’s market environment meeting planners must understand the economi
of supply and demand in any market where they are trying to book a meeting. I
YE 2015 city wide occupancies in the top 25 markets in the U.S. ranged from a lo
of 57% to a high of over 85%. The local destination marketing organization can
the best source for planner who wants to understand the general seasonality
and/or day of the week demand trends in any market. Knowing when there are
large patterns of availability – or not - for hotel rooms, can help the planner bet
manage and negotiate their terms and costs associated with a meeting.”
Robert A. Gilbert, CHME, CHBA
President & CEO
Hospitality Sales & Marketing Association International
Most Desirable
Arrival and
Departure
Patterns
Major
Local
Events
Cancellations and
Special Offers
Seasonality: Peak,
Shoulder and Need
Transient
Demand
City-
wides
www.empowerMINT.com
• Review at-a-glance destination
profiles
• Get destination news
• Find your Destination Expert
• Search and compare
• Submit a Quick Request or RFP
to multiple destinations
Keep in Touch
Email
contactus@empowermint.com
Podcast
Meeting Planning Madness
blog.empowermint.com/podcast
Blog
blog.empowermint.com
Web
www.empowermint.com
LinkedIn
DMAI’s Network for CVBs
and Meeting Professionals

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[WEBINAR] How To Find Relief In A Seller's Market

  • 1.
  • 2. Our Panelist Lindsay Culbreath, CMHS, CHIA Senior Director of Business Development & Marketing STR
  • 3. Latest STR data, trends and forecast Accessing destination specific market conditions with your CVB Managing expectations and improving negotiations Our webinar roadmap
  • 4. Understanding Market Conditions of the U.S. Hotel Industry Lindsay Culbreath Senior Director, Business Development & Marketing Lculbreath@str.com Lindsay_STR © 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied.
  • 5. © 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved. In Review Total U.S. Performance Group vs. Transient Pipeline & Forecasts
  • 6. OCC 65.6% ▴1.7% RECORD Metric No. Status Remarks ROOM REV $142B ▴7.4% RECORD OCC ROOMS 1.2B ▴2.9% RECORD AVAIL ROOMS 1.8B ▴1.1% RECORD ADR $120 ▴4.4% RECORD REVPAR $79 ▴6.3% RECORD U.S. Hotels YE 2015 © 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved.
  • 7. © 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved. Supply Growth Now Back Over 1%. Demand Growth Slows. -0.8 -4.7 -7.1 7.7 2.6 -8 -4 0 4 8 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 Supply % Change Demand % Change 1.2 2.9 4.0 Total U.S. – Supply & Demand % Change 12 MMA, January 1990 to January 2016
  • 8. © 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved. 2 Million More Rooms Available Per Month 1.1 1.1 1.4 1.5 1.4 1.6 1.7 1.6 1.8 1.9 2.0 2.2 January February March April May June July August September October November December U.S. Supply Change (millions of room nights) 2015 by Month
  • 9. © 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved. ADR Growth Steady. Occ Growth Decelerating Rapidly. -3.4 -6.7 -9.7 1.4 6.8 7.5 4.3 -10 -5 0 5 1990 1993 1996 1999 2002 2005 2008 2011 2014 Occ % Change ADR % Change Total U.S. – ADR & Occ % Change 12 MMA, January 1990 to January 2016
  • 10. RevPAR Growth: It’s Going To Be OK (but Not Great) -25 -20 -15 -10 -5 0 5 10 15 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 RevPAR % Change January 1990 to January 2016 56 Months 71 Months80 Months 31 Mo
  • 11. Scales RevPAR Composition: ADR Driven 0.4 0.6 0.6 2.1 1.6 1.6 3.7 3.9 4.8 4.3 4.2 3.9 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy ADR % Change Occupancy % Change 4.5 5.4 6.4 5.8 5.5 RevPAR % Change by Contribution of Occ / ADR % Change, by Scale 12 MMA January 2016 4.1
  • 12. © 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved. +9.4% Anaheim, CA Top 5 / Bottom 2 – RevPAR Growth Markets Full Year 2015 Phoenix, AZ Dallas, TX Houston, TX Tampa, FL Nashville, TN New York, NY +12.8% +10.0% -3.3% +11.1% +13.8% -1.7% 4 Markets with Double Digit RevPAR Growth
  • 13. Transient ADR Growth Subsides Despite High Occupancies 0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Demand % Change ADR % Change 5.9% 2.5% Transient Demand and ADR % Change 12 MMA, January 2012 – January 2016 NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (Luxury & Upper Upscale classes) 5.4% 3.7%
  • 14. Group Demand Growth Slows Rapidly -2% -1% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5% 6% 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Demand % Change ADR % Change 3.8% 1.9% Group Demand and ADR % Change 12 MMA, January 2012 – January 2016 NOTE: Data is for upper tier hotels only (Luxury & Upper Upscale classes)
  • 15. © 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved. 13.5 9.5 9.2 8.5 8.1 8.1 7.4 6.5 6.4 6.2 5.9 5.2 4.7 4.4 4.3 3.7 3.5 2.9 1.3 1.3 0.9 -0.1 -0.3 -5.5 -5.5 Group RevPAR % Change, Top 25 Markets Full Year 2015 Group RevPAR Declines in 4 Markets
  • 16. © 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved. Meeting Requirements Considerations Rated “Very Important” in Site Selection Meeting planners are more demanding than ever in site selection 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100% Clean/attractive city Attractive conference hotels # of hotel rooms available Convenient airline service Easy for delegates to get to Food and lodging costs Travel costs to destination Good value for the money 2015 2013 COSTS CONVENIENCE CLEAN/ ATTRACTIVE
  • 17. © 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved. What Impact do Events Have on your Destination? Source: STR Compression Analysis
  • 18. © 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved. Phase February 2016 February 2015 Difference % Change In Construction 150,406 128,874 21,532 16.7 Final Planning 185,607 152,216 29,391 18.8 Planning 161,396 150,428 10,968 7.3 Under Contract Pipeline 497,409 435,518 61,891 14.2 U.S. Pipeline, by Phase (Rooms) February 2016 vs 2015 Construction Today Will Impact 2016 / 2017
  • 19. © 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved. 7.7 12.9 50.9 50.3 5.7 1.5 20.5 Luxury Upper Upscale Upscale Upper Midscale Midscale Economy Unaffiliated U.S. Pipeline – Rooms Under Construction, ‘000s Rooms, by Scale January 2016 68% Limited Service Construction Has Been Strong For 2 Years
  • 20. © 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved. Construction In Top 26 Markets: 20 With 2%+ Of Supply U.S. Pipeline – Top 26 Markets, U/C Rooms as % of Existing Supply January 2016 Market Rooms U/C % Of Existing New York, NY 14,544 12.30% Miami/Hialeah, FL 3,896 7.50% Houston, TX 5,553 6.90% Seattle, WA 2,872 6.70% Denver, CO 2,756 6.30% Minneapolis/St Paul, MN-WI 2,487 6.30% Nashville, TN 2,163 5.60% Philadelphia, PA-NJ 2,443 5.30% Dallas, TX 4,278 5.30% Los Angeles/Long Beach, CA 4,630 4.70% Anaheim/Santa Ana, CA 2,478 4.40% Boston, MA 1,980 3.80% San Diego, CA 1,951 3.20% Washington, DC-MD-VA 3,339 3.10% Chicago, IL 3,302 3.00% Detroit, MI 1,264 3.00% Tampa/St Petersburg, FL 1,343 3.00% Phoenix, AZ 1,536 2.50% Las Vegas, NV 3,905 2.30% Orlando, FL 2,454 2.00%
  • 21. © 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved. Total U.S. – Key Performance Indicator Outlook (% Change vs. Prior Year) 2016 - 2017 Outlook 2016 Forecast 2017 Forecast Supply 1.7% 1.9% Demand 2.3% 2.1% Occupancy 0.6% 0.2% ADR 4.4% 4.3% RevPAR 5.0% 4.5% Robust RevPAR Growth Still Ahead
  • 22. © 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved. Take-Aways Record levels of supply & more on the way Growth rates are slowing Cautiously optimistic Stay informed!
  • 23. © 2016 STR. All Rights Reserved. Establish Your Research Foundation 1 • Contact STR’s Business Development Team: industrypartners@str.com or +1 (615) 824 8664 ext 3504 2 • Determine questions you’re trying to answer • Rate negotiations • New supply in the market 3 • We’ll help match STR’s products to meet your needs • Trends, Market Pipeline, Forecasts, etc.
  • 24. Thank You! © 2016 STR, Inc. All Rights Reserved. Any reprint, use or republication of all or a part of this presentation without the prior written approval of STR, Inc. or STR Global, Ltd. trading as STR (collectively “STR”) is strictly prohibited. Any such reproduction shall specifically credit STR as the source. This presentation is based on data collected by STR. No strategic advice or marketing recommendation is intended or implied. Lindsay Culbreath Senior Director, Business Development & Marketing Lculbreath@str.com Lindsay_STR www.linkedin.com/in/LindsayCulbreath
  • 25. 7 Types of Consultative Advice to Seek From Your CVB 1) Perspective 2) Expertise and Specialized Knowledge 3) Best Practices and Proven Methodology 4) Strategic Mindset 5) Analytical Horsepower and Data Mining 6) Advocacy 7) Cost Savings and Extension of Staff
  • 26. ANALYTICAL HORSEPOWER & DATA MINING “In today’s market environment meeting planners must understand the economi of supply and demand in any market where they are trying to book a meeting. I YE 2015 city wide occupancies in the top 25 markets in the U.S. ranged from a lo of 57% to a high of over 85%. The local destination marketing organization can the best source for planner who wants to understand the general seasonality and/or day of the week demand trends in any market. Knowing when there are large patterns of availability – or not - for hotel rooms, can help the planner bet manage and negotiate their terms and costs associated with a meeting.” Robert A. Gilbert, CHME, CHBA President & CEO Hospitality Sales & Marketing Association International
  • 27. Most Desirable Arrival and Departure Patterns Major Local Events Cancellations and Special Offers Seasonality: Peak, Shoulder and Need Transient Demand City- wides
  • 28. www.empowerMINT.com • Review at-a-glance destination profiles • Get destination news • Find your Destination Expert • Search and compare • Submit a Quick Request or RFP to multiple destinations
  • 29. Keep in Touch Email contactus@empowermint.com Podcast Meeting Planning Madness blog.empowermint.com/podcast Blog blog.empowermint.com Web www.empowermint.com LinkedIn DMAI’s Network for CVBs and Meeting Professionals