Science, Technology and Diplomacy Meet in the  Ozone Hole Charles Weiss Georgetown School of Foreign Service
STORY LINE: The Rationalist’s Paradigm of Science and Diplomacy <ul><li>Ozone Issue Identified by Scientists </li></ul><ul...
First, the Science
The Kinetic Theory of Dilute Gases: A Scientific  Model <ul><li>A Dilute Gas is Mostly Empty Space in which Molecules (Pic...
<ul><li>Molecules Move Faster at Higher Temperature </li></ul><ul><li>Collisions with the Walls of the Vessel are  Felt as...
A Digression :  This “Billiard Ball” Picture is a  Model :  a “Simplified Representation of a System or Phenomenon, with t...
<ul><li>Because of the Assumptions that Went into the Model, Its Domain of Applicability is Limited to Dilute Gases. Simil...
Why is the Validity of the Model Limited to Dilute Gases? The Real World is More Complicated than the Description Provided...
These Complications Do Matter at Higher Pressures or Lower Temperatures. <ul><li>Volume of Molecules is No Longer Negligib...
ANOTHER SIMPLIFYING REACTION IS:   No Chemical Reactions, Just Energy-Conserving Bounces <ul><li>In Fact, Some Collisions ...
TAKE-HOME MESSAGE : A Model Explores the Implications of a Set of Assumptions as Applied to Available Data. It’s No Better...
The Layers of the Atmosphere
The Stratosphere  (~25 Miles Up) <ul><li>A Dilute Gas, 1/25 as Dense as the Air We Breathe,  Temperature -110F </li></ul><...
Stratospheric Ozone   (not ozone smog in the troposphere,  which we breathe) Absorbs Low Wavelength (High Energy) Ultravio...
Stratospheric Photochemistry in Nature (Without Human Intervention) <ul><li>Stratospheric ozone is naturally formed and de...
CFCs --  Wonder Chemicals ( CHLOROFLUOROCARBONS) <ul><li>Invented by Midgeley, who also invented leaded gasoline </li></ul...
CFCs Destroy O 3  by a Catalytic Chain Reaction in the Stratosphere <ul><li>C 2 Cl 5 F + UV --> Cl + C 2 Cl 4 F  in the up...
This Model Predicts a Change  in the Equilibrium ratio of   O 2  and O 3 , and the   Partial Destruction   of Stratospheri...
AN ASIDE: Distinguish Among the following: <ul><li>CFCs Destroy the Stratospheric Ozone Layer (by the Chain Reaction that ...
The Political and Diplomatic Response: ( Science and Diplomacy  Advance in Parallel) Science and Diplomacy Advance in Para...
Response of Government <ul><li>Oregon and Other States Ban “Non-Essential” Uses of CFCs (Aerosol Propellants) </li></ul><u...
Response of Industry:  <ul><li>Dupont Announces that it will Stop Making CFCs if they are Proven Harmful to Human Health. ...
Scientific Controversy Complicates Negotiations <ul><li>Still No Measurement of Global Ozone Loss </li></ul><ul><li>Predic...
Vienna Convention (1985)  <ul><li>Agreement in Principle that Ozone Destruction is a Problem and that the Parties will Lim...
Provisions of Vienna Convention (2) <ul><li>Parties meet regularly as a ‘legislature’ to update the treaty without amendin...
NEW SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERY   An  ozone hole  over the Antarctic, an area of reduced stratospheric ozone the size of the US, ...
The Ozone Hole in False Color
CFCs are  suspected but not proven  to be the cause of the ozone hole.  A major expedition, organized by NASA, was in the ...
The Montreal Protocol
Montreal Negotiations Take Place Despite Scientific Uncertainty <ul><li>Meta-Analysis of Different Models Shows that Diffe...
Provisions of Montreal Protocol <ul><li>50% Cut in CFC Production and Consumption from 1986 Levels </li></ul><ul><ul><li>5...
Special Concessions to Developing Countries (LDCs) <ul><li>Advanced countries created the problem.  Why should LDCs suffer...
A Watershed in International Environmental Agreements -- Hoped  to be a Harbinger of Future Trends <ul><li>Scientific Unce...
After the Montreal Protocol is Negotiated,   The Ozone Hole is Explained
POLAR STRATOSPHERIC CLOUDS
Newly Discovered Mechanism Proves CFCs Cause Ozone Hole <ul><ul><li>Chlorine (Cl 2 ) and hypochlorous acid (HOCl, the acti...
Cl Generation in Antarctic Stratosphere <ul><li>Cl 2  + light ---> Cl + Cl </li></ul><ul><li>HOCl + light ---> HO + Cl  --...
A Digression for All You Chemists:   O, Cl, OH and ClO are Free Radicals with Unsatisfied Valences. They are Very Reactive...
Response to Definitive Scientific Evidence <ul><li>Dupont agrees to stop CFC manufacture </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dupont coul...
Where Are We Now? and What Lessons Have We Learned?
A Remarkable Diplomatic Achievement <ul><li>CFC Production is Down in Advanced Countries </li></ul><ul><li>Substitutes hav...
But Problems Remain <ul><li>Smuggling of CFCs Is Highly Profitable </li></ul><ul><li>China and India Have Begun Rapid Econ...
Lessons from Ozone Experience <ul><li>Boundary blurs between public and private, business and government, domestic and int...
What is the Presumed Value of the Treaty Process? <ul><li>Negotiation  of an environmental treaty educates governments, pr...
The Ozone Treaty: a Precedent for Dealing With Climate Change?  YES <ul><li>Science Adds New Problems to the Diplomatic Ag...
The Ozone Treaty: a Precedent for Dealing With Climate Change?  YES <ul><li>Public Opinion is Critical to Political Outcom...
The Ozone Treaty: a Precedent for Dealing With Climate Change?  NO <ul><li>Clear-cut Scientific Conclusions Are NOT Typica...
Climate Change Unfolds Differently :   <ul><li>Huge Corporate Counter-Attack, Inventing or Exaggerating Scientific Uncerta...
Climate Change as  ‘Post-Normal Science’ <ul><ul><li>Driven by Policy Issues </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hard Political Pro...
Two New Concepts <ul><li>Sustainable Development </li></ul><ul><li>Precautionary Approach </li></ul>
Sustainable Development Development Should NOT Take Place at the Expense of Future (Human) Generations ‘Deep Ecologists’ A...
Medium and Long Term Consequences Matter   <ul><li>An Important Corrective: Both Politics and Economics Tend to Ignore the...
The Precautionary Principle  (or Approach) <ul><li>‘ Weak’ Precaution :  Lack  of Scientific Evidence Does  Not Preclude  ...
The Precaution Principle (2) <ul><li>Think Before You Act in order to Prevent or Minimize Risk, Rather Than Retrofit  Afte...
E uropeans Regard the Precautionary Principle as Customary International Law; the US is Resisting. (Definition: Customary ...
But What Level of Certainty Justifies Action? <ul><li>Scientifically Proven? </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Beyond a Reasonable Doubt...
More Generally, What Action Should be Taken at What Cost, and What Level of Benefits Foregone, in order to Avoid Uncertain...
Take-Home Message on Precaution <ul><li>Precaution is not a Specifically European Idea. Precaution is Built into American ...
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GU STIA305 03

  1. 1. Science, Technology and Diplomacy Meet in the Ozone Hole Charles Weiss Georgetown School of Foreign Service
  2. 2. STORY LINE: The Rationalist’s Paradigm of Science and Diplomacy <ul><li>Ozone Issue Identified by Scientists </li></ul><ul><li>Scientific Uncertainty Clouds Early Negotiations </li></ul><ul><li>Later Scientific Discoveries Confirm </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Seriousness of issue </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Identification of CFCs as Cause of Problem </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Governments and Corporations Act Decisively Only After Ozone Hole Is Discovered </li></ul><ul><li>Diplomacy Incorporates Dynamic Science </li></ul><ul><li>Situation Improved but Problems Remain </li></ul><ul><li>Is This a Precedent for Climate? </li></ul>
  3. 3. First, the Science
  4. 4. The Kinetic Theory of Dilute Gases: A Scientific Model <ul><li>A Dilute Gas is Mostly Empty Space in which Molecules (Pictured as Tiny Balls) Move Randomly and Fast, Colliding and Bouncing off Each Other with No Chemical Reactions and No Loss of Energy </li></ul><ul><li>Air is 80% N 2 , 20% O 2 , plus bits of Argon and CO 2 . Most Collisions are with N 2 or O 2 </li></ul>
  5. 5. <ul><li>Molecules Move Faster at Higher Temperature </li></ul><ul><li>Collisions with the Walls of the Vessel are Felt as Pressure </li></ul><ul><ul><li>F=ma plus Relatively Simple Math ---> PV=nRT (Boyle’s Law) (P 1 V 1 =P 2 V 2 ) </li></ul></ul>
  6. 6. A Digression : This “Billiard Ball” Picture is a Model : a “Simplified Representation of a System or Phenomenon, with the Hypothesis Needed for Explanation, Often in Mathematical Form.”
  7. 7. <ul><li>Because of the Assumptions that Went into the Model, Its Domain of Applicability is Limited to Dilute Gases. Similarly, the Validity of Models Used in the Social Sciences Depends on their Purpose and Hence on their Assumptions and the Processes they Include. </li></ul>
  8. 8. Why is the Validity of the Model Limited to Dilute Gases? The Real World is More Complicated than the Description Provided by this Model. Molecules like O 2 , N 2 and H 2 O are Made Up of Atoms that are Made up of Nuclei Surrounded by Clouds of Electrons. But in Dilute Gases, Molecules Spend Most of their Time Far from Each Other, so that This “Fine Structure” Doesn’t Matter.
  9. 9. These Complications Do Matter at Higher Pressures or Lower Temperatures. <ul><li>Volume of Molecules is No Longer Negligible </li></ul><ul><li>Atoms are Spherical but Molecules Aren’t: ( O 2 and N 2 are More Like Dumbbells) </li></ul><ul><li>Electron Clouds Deform as Molecules Near Each Other (VanderWaals Forces: Otherwise Gases Wouldn’t Liquefy) So the Model Must be Refined to Take these Facts into Account if You Want to Explain Anything about Liquids. But in the Stratosphere This Doesn’t Matter. </li></ul>
  10. 10. ANOTHER SIMPLIFYING REACTION IS: No Chemical Reactions, Just Energy-Conserving Bounces <ul><li>In Fact, Some Collisions Can Result in Chemical Reactions </li></ul><ul><li>The Rates of these Reactions as a Function of Temperature and Pressure Can be Measured in the Laboratory </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(by measuring how the speed of the reaction changes when the concentration of each reactant is varied.) </li></ul></ul><ul><li>These Measurements Help Scientists to Estimate the Rate of these Reactions in the Stratosphere </li></ul>
  11. 11. TAKE-HOME MESSAGE : A Model Explores the Implications of a Set of Assumptions as Applied to Available Data. It’s No Better and No Worse than these Assumptions. It’s Designed to be Good Enough to Explain the Desired Observations Make Predictions Similar Limitations Apply to Social Science Models Used to Justify Policy Decisions
  12. 12. The Layers of the Atmosphere
  13. 13. The Stratosphere (~25 Miles Up) <ul><li>A Dilute Gas, 1/25 as Dense as the Air We Breathe, Temperature -110F </li></ul><ul><li>Atmospheric Gas Molecules Speed through Empty Space at ~400 Meters per Second (900 miles/hr -- compared to ~600 m/s [1300 mi/hr] at Room Temp) </li></ul><ul><li>Molecules Collide About Every 25 Nanoseconds after Traveling ~10 Microns (100 Diameters -- compared to every 2/3 Nanosecond at room temp & ground level) </li></ul><ul><li>(Comparison: Light Travels 1 Foot per Nanosecond.) </li></ul>
  14. 14. Stratospheric Ozone (not ozone smog in the troposphere, which we breathe) Absorbs Low Wavelength (High Energy) Ultraviolet Photons that would (if they reached the surface of the Earth), Damage DNA, Causing Skin Cancer and Disrupting Marine Eco-systems
  15. 15. Stratospheric Photochemistry in Nature (Without Human Intervention) <ul><li>Stratospheric ozone is naturally formed and destroyed by a series of well understood chemical reactions. Creation and destruction balance, resulting in a stable equilibrium concentration of 0.3 ppm in the atmosphere. (NB: O 2 is 200,000 ppm) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>O 2 + UV --> O + O (photolysis into free O atoms) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>O + O 2 + N 2 --> O 3 + N 2 (O 3 formation) [N 2 ABSORBS EXCESS ENERGY AND HEATS STRATOSPHERE, BUT IS CHEMICALLY INACTIVE] </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>O 3 + UV --> O + O 2 (O 3 photolysis) </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>O + O 3 --> O 2 + O 2 </li></ul></ul><ul><li>O 3 may be destroyed by other mechanisms, e.g. by NO + O 3 --> NO 2 + O 2 </li></ul>
  16. 16. CFCs -- Wonder Chemicals ( CHLOROFLUOROCARBONS) <ul><li>Invented by Midgeley, who also invented leaded gasoline </li></ul><ul><li>Chemical inertness makes possible widespread applications </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Aerosol propellant </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cleaning solvent </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Foamer </li></ul></ul><ul><li>But long after their invention, scientists discover that all CFCs end up in the stratosphere, where they remain for 100 years! </li></ul><ul><ul><li>(CFCs are Heavier than Air, and Travel Upward on Air Currents, not Diffusion.) </li></ul></ul>
  17. 17. CFCs Destroy O 3 by a Catalytic Chain Reaction in the Stratosphere <ul><li>C 2 Cl 5 F + UV --> Cl + C 2 Cl 4 F in the upper stratosphere [C 2 Cl 5 F is a Generic CFC] </li></ul><ul><li>O 3 destroyed: Cl + O 3 --> ClO + O 2 </li></ul><ul><li>Cl regenerated: ClO + O --> Cl + O 2 </li></ul><ul><li>Net Effect: O + O 3 --> O 2 + O 2 repeated ~10,000 times </li></ul><ul><li>Chain Termination: Cl + NO 2 --> ClONO </li></ul><ul><li>Discovery Wins Nobel Prize for Rowland and Molina. There’s No Uncertainty. </li></ul>
  18. 18. This Model Predicts a Change in the Equilibrium ratio of O 2 and O 3 , and the Partial Destruction of Stratospheric Ozone Everywhere in the World ( since Ozone and CFCs Travel and Mix Freely in the Stratosphere All Over the World, with One Exception that we shall Discuss Shortly)
  19. 19. AN ASIDE: Distinguish Among the following: <ul><li>CFCs Destroy the Stratospheric Ozone Layer (by the Chain Reaction that we discussed) </li></ul><ul><li>CFCs Also Cool the Stratosphere by Reducing Ozone Photolysis </li></ul><ul><ul><li>i.e., Less Energized N 2 Is Produced Because There’s Less Ozone to Be Photolyzed. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>CFCs Are Also Greenhouse Gases and Contribute to Global Warming (to be Discussed Next Lecture) These Are Three Different Phenomena </li></ul>
  20. 20. The Political and Diplomatic Response: ( Science and Diplomacy Advance in Parallel) Science and Diplomacy Advance in Parallel
  21. 21. Response of Government <ul><li>Oregon and Other States Ban “Non-Essential” Uses of CFCs (Aerosol Propellants) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Details: A Powerful, Irascible and Legendarily Profane Oregon State Legislator Champions Oregon laws through. No one dared oppose him. </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>He and Midgely each show how One Man can Make a Difference. </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Federal Government Follows Some Years Later </li></ul>
  22. 22. Response of Industry: <ul><li>Dupont Announces that it will Stop Making CFCs if they are Proven Harmful to Human Health. </li></ul><ul><li>Dupont Organizes Alliance for Responsible CFC Policy. an Industry Non-Governmental Organization (NGO) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Alliance Opposes Further CFC Limits on Grounds of Scientific Uncertainty </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Limited Basic Research on Stratospheric Photochemistry and Applied Research on Potential Substitutes Begins, but Ends as Issue Fades with Reagan Election </li></ul></ul><ul><li>International Negotiations are Inconclusive </li></ul>
  23. 23. Scientific Controversy Complicates Negotiations <ul><li>Still No Measurement of Global Ozone Loss </li></ul><ul><li>Predictions of World-wide Ozone Depletion Bounce Up and Down as Models Improve </li></ul><ul><li>Disagreement Over the Right Approach: </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Industry: Act When the Science Is Proven </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Environmentalists: Take Proactive Measures in Case the Danger Turns Out to Be Real </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Even So, NGO and Scandinavian Pressure Leads to the Vienna Convention </li></ul>
  24. 24. Vienna Convention (1985) <ul><li>Agreement in Principle that Ozone Destruction is a Problem and that the Parties will Limit CFC Production </li></ul><ul><li>Broad Framework Agreement to Be Followed by Specific Protocols </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Sets Pattern for Future Global Environmental Agreements </li></ul></ul>
  25. 25. Provisions of Vienna Convention (2) <ul><li>Parties meet regularly as a ‘legislature’ to update the treaty without amending it </li></ul><ul><li>Scientific review incorporated into updating process </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Government-appointed scientists meet one year in advance to set forth state of scientific understanding </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Atmospheric scientists gain political sophistication </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>‘ Kept’ scientists have trust of government, but attract ridicule if they espouse politically convenient theories outside of mainstream scientific opinion </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Precedent: Regular Scientific Review had Earlier been Part of Treaties Concerning Whales and Sea-Going Mammals </li></ul></ul>
  26. 26. NEW SCIENTIFIC DISCOVERY An ozone hole over the Antarctic, an area of reduced stratospheric ozone the size of the US, confirms the urgency and the seriousness of the problem, and puts diplomats under pressure to find a solution.
  27. 27. The Ozone Hole in False Color
  28. 28. CFCs are suspected but not proven to be the cause of the ozone hole. A major expedition, organized by NASA, was in the field measuring ClO in the stratosphere to make it possible to choose among several alternative theories, even as diplomats gathered in Montreal to negotiate the first protocol under the Vienna Convention.
  29. 29. The Montreal Protocol
  30. 30. Montreal Negotiations Take Place Despite Scientific Uncertainty <ul><li>Meta-Analysis of Different Models Shows that Different Projections of Global Ozone Loss are Due to Differing Projections of CFC Production, not to Uncertainty about the Effects of CFCs. </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Epistemic Community’ of Scientists, Government Officials, NGO Activists, and Officials of IGOs Speed Consensus by Educating Colleagues and the Public </li></ul><ul><li>NGOs Don’t Want to Lose Momentum. Through a ‘Lead Coalition’ of Scandinavian Nations, they Press for Action Even Before the Cause of the Ozone Hole is Definitively Established </li></ul><ul><li>Ozone Hole Looms in the Background, but is not Used as an Explicit Justification for Action because of Lack of Proof that CFCs are its Cause. </li></ul>
  31. 31. Provisions of Montreal Protocol <ul><li>50% Cut in CFC Production and Consumption from 1986 Levels </li></ul><ul><ul><li>50% is a Political Compromise with No Scientific Justification </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Restricts Trade with Non-Parties </li></ul><ul><ul><li>GATT Permits Limits on Trade Linked to Environmental Goals </li></ul></ul>
  32. 32. Special Concessions to Developing Countries (LDCs) <ul><li>Advanced countries created the problem. Why should LDCs suffer? </li></ul><ul><li>But Rapid growth of “Emerging Markets” with Hot Climates (especially India and China) make them a major source of CFCs </li></ul><ul><li>Resolution: LDCs are Allowed 10 extra years to comply </li></ul><ul><li>Funds from “Global Environmental Facility,” managed by the World Bank, are provided to help LDCs phase out CFCs </li></ul>
  33. 33. A Watershed in International Environmental Agreements -- Hoped to be a Harbinger of Future Trends <ul><li>Scientific Uncertainty Mixes with Political Differences </li></ul><ul><li>Science Sets the Agenda -- but Does Not Dictate the Political Solution </li></ul><ul><li>Limits on Free Trade Needed in order to Meet Environmental Goals </li></ul><ul><li>Cooperation of LDCs Needed to Meet Global Needs </li></ul><ul><li>Epistemic Community Educates the Governments and their Diplomats, but Some Countries Have to Take the Lead. </li></ul>
  34. 34. After the Montreal Protocol is Negotiated, The Ozone Hole is Explained
  35. 35. POLAR STRATOSPHERIC CLOUDS
  36. 36. Newly Discovered Mechanism Proves CFCs Cause Ozone Hole <ul><ul><li>Chlorine (Cl 2 ) and hypochlorous acid (HOCl, the active ingredient in Clorox), formed by chemical reactions, accumulate during winter darkness on the surface of tiny ice crystals that make up polar stratospheric clouds </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Dawn’s light in Antarctic spring releases atomic chlorine (Cl) that leaves the ice (desorbs) and activates the chain reaction that destroys ozone </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Cl lasts until ice crystals melt because the usual chain terminator (NO 2 ) is trapped on the surface of the ice as ionized nitric acid (H + and NO 3 - ) </li></ul></ul>
  37. 37. Cl Generation in Antarctic Stratosphere <ul><li>Cl 2 + light ---> Cl + Cl </li></ul><ul><li>HOCl + light ---> HO + Cl -- feeding Cl into the ozone-destroying chain reaction: O 3 destroyed: Cl + O 3 --> ClO + O 2 </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Cl regenerated: ClO + O --> Cl + O 2 </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Net Effect: O + O 3 --> O 2 + O 2 repeated many more than 100,000 times and producing the ‘ozone hole’ </li></ul></ul>
  38. 38. A Digression for All You Chemists: O, Cl, OH and ClO are Free Radicals with Unsatisfied Valences. They are Very Reactive, and Last only a Few Collisions, after which They Disappear in the Chemical Reactions we Discussed.
  39. 39. Response to Definitive Scientific Evidence <ul><li>Dupont agrees to stop CFC manufacture </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Dupont could have profited from stonewalling but elected to honor their previous commitment </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>They also realized that CFC substitutes would be a business opportunity </li></ul></ul><ul><li>“ London Revisions” (1990) speed CFC phase-out </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Halons and other chemicals included in the restrictions </li></ul></ul>
  40. 40. Where Are We Now? and What Lessons Have We Learned?
  41. 41. A Remarkable Diplomatic Achievement <ul><li>CFC Production is Down in Advanced Countries </li></ul><ul><li>Substitutes have been found for almost all CFC uses (despite early fears that they were irreplaceable) </li></ul><ul><li>Ozone Hole Hasn’t Grown, and may be Beginning to Decrease </li></ul><ul><li>Future Disappearance of Ozone Hole Depends on Degree of Compliance </li></ul>
  42. 42. But Problems Remain <ul><li>Smuggling of CFCs Is Highly Profitable </li></ul><ul><li>China and India Have Begun Rapid Economic Growth in Economy and in CFC Production </li></ul><ul><ul><li>It’s Hot and People Want Refrigerators and Air Conditioners </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Many Late Payers to the Global Environmental Facility </li></ul><ul><li>CFCs and Other Ozone Destroyers Must Be Controlled for 50-60 Years Before Stratospheric Ozone Levels Recover </li></ul>
  43. 43. Lessons from Ozone Experience <ul><li>Boundary blurs between public and private, business and government, domestic and international issues </li></ul><ul><li>Review of scientific evidence is an essential part of the diplomatic process in environmental agreements </li></ul><ul><li>US Leadership is Essential </li></ul>
  44. 44. What is the Presumed Value of the Treaty Process? <ul><li>Negotiation of an environmental treaty educates governments, prods the recalcitrant, exposes spurious scientific arguments to peer review </li></ul><ul><li>Ratification and implementation of an environmental treaty builds confidence, establishes commercial standards, stimulates new technical solutions, builds technical and administrative capacity -- but this may collapse when costs become apparent and opposition counter-attacks (Kyoto, Oslo) </li></ul>
  45. 45. The Ozone Treaty: a Precedent for Dealing With Climate Change? YES <ul><li>Science Adds New Problems to the Diplomatic Agenda; Scientists Gain Diplomatic Savvy </li></ul><ul><li>Epistemic Community Educates Governments and International Organizations </li></ul><ul><li>Policy Mixes Science, Diplomacy and Politics </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Bargaining, Not Science, Controls Outcome </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>But Science Weighs in at Critical Moments </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Corporations, NGOs and Public Opinion Play Critical Roles </li></ul>
  46. 46. The Ozone Treaty: a Precedent for Dealing With Climate Change? YES <ul><li>Public Opinion is Critical to Political Outcomes </li></ul><ul><li>Environmental Treaties Must Be Updated As Experience Unfolds and Scientific Understanding Improves </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Scientific Report Now Precedes Major Environmental Negotiations </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>International Secretariat Monitors CFC Phase-Out and Size of Ozone Hole </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Precautionary Action May Be Justified Even Before Scientific Proof Is Complete </li></ul>
  47. 47. The Ozone Treaty: a Precedent for Dealing With Climate Change? NO <ul><li>Clear-cut Scientific Conclusions Are NOT Typical of Environmental Issues </li></ul><ul><li>Ozone Decision Was Easier Because There Were Few Manufacturers, Limited Market </li></ul><ul><li>Climate Change Involves Comprehensive Change in the World’s Style of Living: Huge Economic Stakes </li></ul><ul><li>Political Climate Changes in 2000 as US Turns Against Multilateral Regimes </li></ul>
  48. 48. Climate Change Unfolds Differently : <ul><li>Huge Corporate Counter-Attack, Inventing or Exaggerating Scientific Uncertainty in order to Forestall Action </li></ul><ul><li>US Government Ignores Scientific Consensus; Major Disagreement on Objectives Blocks UN Action </li></ul><ul><li>Europe, US States and Multinational Corporations Take the Lead in Establishing Cap-and-Trade Systems, Researching Conservation and Alternative Energy Sources </li></ul>
  49. 49. Climate Change as ‘Post-Normal Science’ <ul><ul><li>Driven by Policy Issues </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Hard Political Problem </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Values in Dispute </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High Stakes </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>High Uncertainty in the Science </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Scientific Consensus Proves Vulnerable to Counter-Attack </li></ul></ul>
  50. 50. Two New Concepts <ul><li>Sustainable Development </li></ul><ul><li>Precautionary Approach </li></ul>
  51. 51. Sustainable Development Development Should NOT Take Place at the Expense of Future (Human) Generations ‘Deep Ecologists’ Argue that Humans Have No Special Moral Status
  52. 52. Medium and Long Term Consequences Matter <ul><li>An Important Corrective: Both Politics and Economics Tend to Ignore the Long Term </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Short Election Cycle in Democracies </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Bureaucrats Change Jobs Often, Aren’t Accountable </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Most Economic Models Do Not Address Long-Term Effects </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Cost/Benefit Analysis Uses Discounting Techniques that Essentially Neglect Long-Term Effects </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>Growth Theory Assumes that Future Generations will be Better Off than We Are. </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Philosophical Reluctance to Think Long-Term </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>‘ What Have Future Generations Ever Done for Me?’ </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>‘ The Long Term is After Lunch.’ </li></ul></ul></ul><ul><ul><ul><li>‘ Life is Short: Eat Dessert First.’ </li></ul></ul></ul>
  53. 53. The Precautionary Principle (or Approach) <ul><li>‘ Weak’ Precaution : Lack of Scientific Evidence Does Not Preclude Action to Protect the Environment If Damage Would Otherwise be Serious and Irreversible (Note Triple Negative.) </li></ul><ul><ul><li>To Act in the Face of Uncertainty Is a Normal Situation in Policy Matters! It Just Seems Abnormal to Scientists! </li></ul></ul><ul><li>‘ Strong’ Precaution : Action Should be Taken in the Absence of Firm Scientific Evidence! </li></ul>
  54. 54. The Precaution Principle (2) <ul><li>Think Before You Act in order to Prevent or Minimize Risk, Rather Than Retrofit After It Has Occurred </li></ul><ul><ul><li>AVOID TECHNOLOGY LOCK-IN </li></ul></ul><ul><ul><li>Consider Alternative Paths to Your Objective, and Choose the Least Risky </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Burden of Proof Shifts to Polluters </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Development Doesn’t Get Priority </li></ul></ul><ul><li>Ecology Has Intrinsic Value </li></ul><ul><li>Monitoring and Research Are Needed </li></ul><ul><li>Affected Parties Should Be Notified </li></ul>
  55. 55. E uropeans Regard the Precautionary Principle as Customary International Law; the US is Resisting. (Definition: Customary International Law is Law that States Obey in the Belief that they have to, even in the Absence of a Treaty)
  56. 56. But What Level of Certainty Justifies Action? <ul><li>Scientifically Proven? </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Beyond a Reasonable Doubt’? </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Clear and Convincing Evidence’? </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Clear Indication’? </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Preponderance of the Evidence’? </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Reasonable Belief’? </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Reasonable Indication’? </li></ul><ul><li>‘ Reasonable Suspicion’? </li></ul><ul><li>Hunch? Groundless Fear? </li></ul><ul><li>99%? </li></ul><ul><li>90%? </li></ul><ul><li>75%? </li></ul><ul><li>50%? </li></ul><ul><li>30%? </li></ul><ul><li>10%? </li></ul><ul><li><1%? </li></ul>
  57. 57. More Generally, What Action Should be Taken at What Cost, and What Level of Benefits Foregone, in order to Avoid Uncertain Long-Term Damage? <ul><li>The Precautionary Principle (PP) Values Harms and Risks More than Benefits, an Old Ethical Issue </li></ul><ul><li>PP Reflects Distrust of the Promoters of Products and Projects </li></ul><ul><li>Inaction, too, May Have its Costs. The Relative Risks of Action and Inaction Must be Weighed. </li></ul><ul><ul><li>Zambia Refused to Accept Genetically Modified Corn that it Needs to Avert Starvation </li></ul></ul>
  58. 58. Take-Home Message on Precaution <ul><li>Precaution is not a Specifically European Idea. Precaution is Built into American Laws on Environment and Public Health. </li></ul><ul><li>The Precaution Principle is a Blunt Instrument It is Often Used as a Vehicle for Political and Economic Pressures, Both to Derail Unwise Projects and to Block Desirable Innovations. </li></ul><ul><li>The Precautionary Principle Can be a Useful Counter-Balance to Pressure (Often from Enthusiasts or Strong Vested Interests) to Take Unnecessary Technological Risks. </li></ul>

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