1. Aeronautical Decision Making: Metaphors, Models, and Methods O’Hare, D. (2003). Aeronautical decision making: Metaphors, models, and methods. Principles and practice of aviation psychology, 201–237. Li Hongchang (lihongchang1987@gmail.com) 08.12.01

2. Overview Early views of pilots Metaphors, models, & methods Flying Ace Explorer Gambler Faulty Computer Rational Calculator Character Defective Enquiring Expert Captain Organizational Cog

3. Early Views of Pilots Flying Ace Explorer Gambler Captain

6. possibility of occurrenceFaulty Computer Rational Calculator Character Defective Enquiring Expert Organizational Cog

7. Faulty Computer Metaphor Heuristics & biases Model Wickens & Flach (1988) Method Correct routines Faulty Computer Fig 1. Wickens & Flach (1988) model Rational Calculator Character Defective Enquiring Expert Organizational Cog

8. Rational Calculator Metaphor Rational nature of human DM Model Ways of estimating value Method Non-compensatory strategy Decision making process DECIDE Model (detect, estimate, choose, identify, do, evaluate) Faulty Computer Rational Calculator Character Defective Enquiring Expert Organizational Cog Fig 2. ARTFUL model by O’ Hare(1992)

9. Adaptive Decision Making “Decision makers adapt their strategiesaccording to the features of a situation based on a desire to trade off accuracy and cognitive effort.” Strategy Heuristics & Analytical Strategies Situation Inconsequential & Major decisions Tradeoff Dominance model & Prospect theory Faulty Computer Rational Calculator Character Defective Enquiring Expert Organizational Cog

10. Character Defective Metaphor Attitudinal bases of DM Model Five thought patterns Method Structured programs Antiauthority Invulnerability Macho Impulsivity Resignation One factor by factor analysis No relationship between thought ratings & accident-involvement Unproven existence of character flaws Faulty Computer Rational Calculator Character Defective Enquiring Expert Organizational Cog

11. Enquiring Expert Metaphor Naturalistic decision making Model Expert vs. Novice Method Cognitive skill acquisition & Recognition/Metacognition model Faulty Computer Rational Calculator Character Defective Enquiring Expert Organizational Cog

13. Procedure availabilityFaulty Computer Rational Calculator Character Defective Enquiring Expert Organizational Cog

14. Summary Heuristics & biases Faulty Computer Rational Calculator Rational nature of human DM Character Defective Attitudinal bases of DM Enquiring Expert Naturalistic decision making Organizational Cog Interrelationship between DMer &context