Aeronautical Decision Making And Risk Management For Pilots


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This presentation relies heavily on the FAA\'s Risk Management Handbook, which can be found at It covers factors related to ADM, statistics, best practices, and related case studies.

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Aeronautical Decision Making And Risk Management For Pilots

  1. 1. Superior Knowledge Precludes the Demonstration of Superior SkillAeronautical Decision Making and Risk Management for Pilots<br />
  2. 2. Congratulations!<br />Clearly, you arethe kind of pilot who is already in the habit of making good decisions; you came to this seminar, didn’t you? <br />And clearly, I’m in the habit of making good decisions as well. It isn’t plagiarism if you cite your sources. Nearly all of the information we’re covering tonight is quoted directly from the FAA’s Risk Management Handbook, which can be found at<br />
  3. 3. Why are we here, and what are we hoping to learn?<br />According to National Transportation Board (NTSB) statistics, in the last 20 years, approximately 85 percent of aviation accidents have been caused by “pilot error.” <br />The integration of risk management into flight training teaches pilots and aspiring pilots how to be more aware of potential risks in flying, how to clearly identify those risks, and how to manage them successfully.<br />
  4. 4. Does this really make a difference?<br />For over 25 years, the importance of good pilot judgment, or ADM, has been recognized as critical to the safe operation of aircraft, as well as accident avoidance. <br />Research in this area prompted the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) to produce training directed at improving the decision making of pilots and led to current FAA regulations that require that decision-making be taught as part of the pilot training curriculum. <br />When tested, the pilots who had received ADM training made fewer in-flight errors than those who had not received ADM training. <br />The differences were statistically significant and ranged from about 10 to 50 percent fewer judgment errors.<br />
  5. 5. Is it safe, is it legal, and does it make sense?<br />Managing risk takes discipline in separating oneself from the activity at hand in order to view the situation as an unbiased evaluator versus an eager participant with a stake in the flight’s execution.<br />Another simple step is to ask three questions—is it safe, is it legal, and does it make sense? <br />Although not a formal methodology of risk assessment, it prompts a pilot to look at the simple realities of what he or she is about to do.<br />
  6. 6. “If all your friends jumped off a bridge…”<br />Risk management is unique to each and every individual, since there are no two people exactly alike in skills, knowledge, training, and abilities. <br />An acceptable level of risk to one pilot may not necessarily be the same to another pilot. <br />Unfortunately, in some cases, the pilot perceives that his or her level of risk acceptability is actually greater than their capability thereby taking on risk that is dangerous.<br />
  7. 7. Education<br />The adage that one cannot teach an old dog new tricks is simply false. <br />In the mid-1970s, airlines started to employ Crew Resource Management (CRM) in the workplace (flight deck). The program helped crews recognize hazards and provided tools for them to eliminate the hazard or minimize its impact. <br />Today, this same type of thinking has been integrated into Single-Pilot Resource Management (SRM) programs<br />
  8. 8. Regulations<br />Regulations provide restrictions to actions and are written to produce outcomes that might not otherwise occur if the regulation were not written. They are written to reduce hazards by establishing a threshold for the hazard. <br />An example might be something as simple as basic visual flight rules (VFR) weather minimums as presented in part 91, which lists cloud clearance in Class E airspace as 1,000 feet below, 500 feet above, and 2,000 feet horizontally with flight visibility as three statute miles. <br />This regulation provides both an operational boundary and one that a pilot can use in helping to recognize a hazard. <br />For instance, a VFR-only rated pilot faced with weather that is below that of Class E airspace would recognize that weather as hazardous, if for no other reason than because it falls below regulatory requirements.<br />
  9. 9. Experience<br />Experience is the knowledge acquired over time and increases with time as it relates to association with aviation and an accumulation of experiences. Therefore, can inexperience be construed as a hazard? <br />Inexperience is a hazard if an activity demands experience of a high skill set and the inexperienced pilot attempts that activity. An example of this would be a wealthy pilot who can afford to buy an advanced avionics aircraft, but lacks the experience needed to operate it safely. <br />On the other hand, a pilot’s experience can provide a false sense of security, leading the pilot to ignore or fail to recognize a potential hazard, as in the case of a pilot who may have only practiced night landings at their home airport with a VASI and then attempts a night landing at an unfamiliar airport with VASIs out of service.<br />
  10. 10. Pilot Error, AKA Human Factors<br />Historically, the term “pilot error” has been used to describe an accident in which an action or decision made by the pilot was the cause or a contributing factor that led to the accident. This definition also includes the pilot’s failure to make a correct decision or take proper action. <br />From a broader perspective, the phrase “human factors related” more aptly describes these accidents. <br />A single decision or event does not lead to an accident, but a series of events; the resultant decisions together form a chain of events leading to an outcome. <br />Many of these events involve the interaction of flight crews. In fact, airlines have long adopted programs for crew resource management (CRM) and line oriented flight training (LOFT) which has had a positive impact upon both safety and profit. These same processes can be applied (to an extent) to general aviation.<br />
  11. 11. Predisposition and Perception<br />The hazards a pilot faces and those that are created through adverse attitude predispose his or her actions. Predisposition is formed from the pilot’s foundation of beliefs and, therefore, affects all decisions he or she makes. <br />A key point must be understood about risk. As a situation builds in complexity, it may exceed the pilot’s capability and requires luck to succeed and prevail. <br />Unfortunately, when a pilot survives a situation above his or her normal capability, perception of the risk involved and of the ability to cope with that level of risk become skewed.<br />The pilot is encouraged to use the same response to the same perceived level of risk, viewing any success as due to skill, not luck. The failure to accurately perceive the risk involved and the level of skill, knowledge, and abilities required to mitigate that risk may influence the pilot to accept that level of risk or higher levels.<br />
  12. 12. Is there an accident-prone pilot?<br />A study in 1951 published by Elizabeth Mechem Fuller and Helen B. Baune of the University of Minnesota determined there were injury-prone children. The study was comprised of two separate groups of second grade students. Fifty-five students were considered accident repeaters and 48 students had no accidents. Both groups were from the same school of 600 and their family demographics were similar.<br />The accident-free group showed a superior knowledge of safety and were considered industrious and cooperative with others but were not considered physically inclined. <br />The accident-repeater group had better gymnastic skills, were considered aggressive and impulsive, demonstrated rebellious behavior when under stress, were poor losers, and liked to be the center of attention. <br />
  13. 13. Is there an accident-prone pilot?<br />Fifty-five years after Fuller-Baune study, Dr. Patrick R. Veillettedebated the possibility of an accident prone pilot in his 2006 article “Accident-Prone Pilots,” published in Business and Commercial Aviation. <br />Veilletteuses the history of “Captain Everyman” to demonstrate how aircraft accidents are caused more by a chain of poor choices than one single poor choice. <br />
  14. 14. The Saga of Captain Everyman<br />In the case of Captain Everyman, after a gearup landing accident, he became involved in another accident while taxiing a Beech Baron out of the ramp. Interrupted by a radio call from the dispatcher, he neglected to complete the fuel cross-feed check before taking off. Our hero, who was flying solo, left the right fuel selector in the cross-feed position. Once aloft and cruising, he noticed a right roll tendency and corrected with aileron trim. He did not realize that both engines were feeding off the left wing’s tank, making the wing lighter. After two hours of flight, the right engine quit while was flying along a deep canyon gorge. While he was trying to troubleshoot the cause of the right engine’s failure, the left engine quit. The pilot landed the aircraft on a river sand bar, but it sank into ten feet of water. <br />Several years later, this same pilot was landing a de Havilland Twin Otter when the aircraft veered sharply to the left, departed the runway, and ran into a marsh 375 feet from the runway. The airframe and engines sustained considerable damage. Upon inspecting the wreck, accident investigators found the nosewheel steering tiller in the fully deflected position. Both the after-takeoff and before-landing checklists required the tiller to be placed in the neutral position. Thepilothad overlooked this item.<br />
  15. 15. Accident Prone or Just Unlucky?<br />Skipping details on a checklist appears to be a common theme in the preceding accidents. <br />While most pilots have made similar mistakes, these errors were probably caught prior to a mishap due to extra margin, good warning systems, a sharp copilot, or just good luck. <br />
  16. 16. Can we tell in advance who may be more likely to be involved in accidents or incidents?<br />In an attempt to discover what makes a pilot accident prone, the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) oversaw an extensive research study on the similarities and dissimilarities of pilots who were accident free and those who were not. <br />The project surveyed over 4,000 pilots, half of whom had “clean” records while the other half had been involved in an accident<br />
  17. 17. Five traits were discovered in pilots prone to having accidents<br />Disdain toward rules<br />High correlation between accidents in their flying records and safety violations in their driving records<br />Frequently falling into the personality category of “thrill and adventure seeking”<br />Impulsive rather than methodical and disciplined in information gathering and in the speed and selection of actions taken<br />Disregard for or underutilization of outside sources of information, including copilots, flight attendants, flight service personnel, flight instructors, and air traffic controllers<br />
  18. 18. And those who didn’t?<br />In contrast, the successful pilot possesses the ability to concentrate, manage workloads, monitor, and perform several simultaneous tasks. <br />Some of the latest psychological screenings used in aviation test applicants for their ability to multitask, measuring both accuracy and the individual’s ability to focus attention on several subjects simultaneously.<br />
  19. 19. Right stuff, wrong stuff, or no stuff?<br />Research has also demonstrated significant links between pilot personality and performance, particularly in the area of crew coordination and resource management. <br />- Three distinct subgroups of flight crew member personalities have been isolated: right stuff, wrong stuff, and no stuff. As the names imply, the right stuff group has the right stuff. This group demonstrates positive levels of achievement motivation and interpersonal behavior. The wrong stuff group has high levels of negative traits, such as being autocratic or dictatorial. The no stuff group scored low on goal seeking and interpersonal behaviors.<br />
  20. 20. Your resistance may be a sign that you would benefit from this training.<br />During this study a subset of participants reacted negatively to the training–the individuals who seemed to need the training the most were the least receptive. <br />Personality factors played a role in this reaction because the ones who reacted negatively were individuals who lacked interpersonal skills and had not been identified as members of the “right stuff” subset. <br />It was surmised that they felt threatened by the emphasis on the importance of communications and human relations skills.<br />
  21. 21. In a 2005 FAA study,<br />it became apparent that human error associated with GA accidents is multifaceted. <br />Specifically, the analyses revealed that the largest percentage of accidents is associated with skill-based errors, followed by decision errors, violations of the rules and regulations, and perceptual errors. <br />The next step will be identifying a variety of interventions targeted at all four error groups.<br />Using PAVE helps to identify risk before departure and assists the pilot’s decision-making process.<br />
  22. 22. P is for Pilot<br />A pilot must continually make decisions about competency, condition of health, mental and emotional state, level of fatigue, and many other variables. <br />For example, a pilot may be called early in the morning to make a long flight. If the pilot has had only a few hours of sleep and is concerned that the sinus congestion being experienced could be the onset of a cold, it would be prudent to consider if the flight could be accomplished safely.<br />
  23. 23. I’M SAFE<br />You’ve preflighted the plane, but have you preflighted the pilot? <br />One of the best ways pilots can mitigate risk is a self evaluation.<br />Illness—Am I sick? Illness is an obvious pilot risk.<br />Medication—Am I taking any medicines that might affect my judgment or make me drowsy?<br />Stress—Am I under psychological pressure from the job? Do I have money, health, or family problems? Stress causes concentration and performance problems. While the regulations list medical conditions that require grounding, stress is not among them. The pilot should consider the effects of stress on performance.<br />Alcohol—Have I been drinking within 8 hours? Within 24 hours? As little as one ounce of liquor, one bottle of beer, or four ounces of wine can impair flying skills. Alcohol also renders a pilot more susceptible to disorientation and hypoxia.<br />Fatigue—Am I tired and not adequately rested? Fatigue continues to be one of the most insidious hazards to flight safety, as it may not be apparent to a pilot until serious errors are made.<br />Emotion—Have I experienced any emotionally upsetting event?<br />
  24. 24. Stress Management<br />Everyone is stressed to some degree almost all of the time. <br />A certain amount of stress is good since it keeps a person alert and prevents complacency. <br />Effects of stress are cumulative and, if the pilot does not cope with them in an appropriate way, they can eventually add up to an intolerable burden.<br />Performance generally increases with the onset of stress, peaks, and then begins to fall off rapidly as stress levels exceed a person’s ability to cope. <br />
  25. 25. So who are we most worried about?<br />For the relatively new pilot versus a highly experienced pilot, flying in weather, night experience, and familiarity with the area are assessed differently to determine potential risk. <br />For example, the experienced pilot who typically flies at night may appear to be a low risk, but other factors such as fatigue could alter the risk assessment.<br />
  26. 26. Pilot fatigue<br />Since indications of fatigue are subtle and hard to recognize, it often goes unidentified by a pilot. <br />The more experienced pilot may actually ignore signals of fatigue because he or she believes flight experience will compensate for the hazard. <br />For example, a businessman/pilot plans to fly to a meeting and sets an 8 a.m. departure for himself. Preparations for the meeting keep him up until 2 a.m. the night before the flight. With only several hours of sleep, he arrives at the airport ready to fly because he fails to recognize his lack of sleep as a hazard. <br />The fatigued pilot is an impaired pilot, and flying requires unimpaired judgment. To offset the risk of fatigue, every pilot should get plenty of rest and minimize stress before a flight. <br />If problems prevent a good night’s sleep, rethink the flight, and postpone it accordingly.<br />
  27. 27. Weighing Pilot Fatigue<br />What level of risk does the fatigued pilot present? Is the risk equal in all scenarios and conditions?<br />Probably not. For example, look at three different conditions in which the pilot could be flying:<br />Day visual meteorological conditions (VMC) flying visual flight rules (VFR)<br />Night VMC flying VFR<br />Night instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) flying instrument flight rules (IFR)<br />
  28. 28. One way a pilot can control the risks is to set personal minimums for items in each risk category. <br />These are limits unique to that individual pilot’s current level of experience and proficiency.<br />One of the most important concepts that safe pilots understand is the difference between what is “legal” in terms of the regulations, and what is “smart” or “safe” in terms of pilot experience and proficiency<br />
  29. 29. A is for Aircraft<br />A pilot frequently bases decisions on evaluation of the airplane, such as performance, equipment, or airworthiness.<br />For example, during a preflight, a pilot noticed a small amount of oil dripping from the bottom of the cowling. Although the quantity of oil seemed insignificant at the time, the pilot decided to delay the takeoff and have a mechanic check the source of the oil.<br />The pilot’s good judgment was confirmed when the mechanic found that one of the oil cooler hose fittings was loose.<br />
  30. 30. With a small, creative stretch, V can be for enVironment<br />The environment encompasses many elements that are not pilot or airplane related, including such factors as weather, air traffic control (ATC), navigational aids (NAVAIDS), terrain, takeoff and landing areas, and surrounding obstacles. Weather is one element that can change drastically over time and distance.<br />For example, a pilot was landing a small airplane just after a heavy jet had departed a parallel runway. The pilot assumed that wake turbulence would not be a problem since landings had been performed under similar circumstances. Due to a combination of prevailing winds and wake turbulence from the heavy jet drifting across the landing runway, the airplane made a hard landing. The pilot made an error when assessing the flight environment.<br />
  31. 31. E is for External Pressures<br />The pilot must evaluate the three previous areas to decide on the desirability of undertaking or continuing the flight as planned. It is worth asking why the flight is being made, how critical it is to maintain the schedule, and if the trip is worth the risks.<br />On a ferry flight to deliver an airplane from the factory, the pilot calculated the groundspeed and determined he would arrive at the destination with only 10 minutes of fuel remaining. A check of the weather revealed he would be flying into marginal weather conditions. <br />By asking himself whether it was more critical to maintain the schedule or to arrive with an intact aircraft, the pilot decided to schedule a refuel stop even though it would mean he would not be able to keep to the schedule. He chose not to “stretch” the fuel supply in marginal weather conditions which could have resulted in an emergency landing.<br />
  32. 32. Perception of Stress<br />Imagine a cabin door that suddenly opens in flight on a Bonanza climbing through 1,500 feet on a clear sunny day. It may startle the pilot, but the stress would wane when it became apparent that the situation was not a serious hazard. Yet, if the cabin door opened in instrument meteorological conditions (IMC), the stress level would be much higher despite little difference between the two scenarios. <br />Therefore, one can conclude that our perception of problems (and the stress they create) is related to the environment in which the problems occur.<br />Another example is that mechanical problems always seem greater at night, a situation that many pilots have experienced.<br />The key to stress management is to stop, think, and analyze before jumping to a conclusion. There is usually time to think before drawing conclusions.<br />
  33. 33. After Identifying Risk, Choose Effective Ways to Mitigate It<br />Risk assessment is only part of the equation. After determining the level of risk, the pilot needs to mitigate the risk. For example, the VFR pilot flying from point A to point B (50 miles) in marginal flight conditions has several ways to reduce risk:<br />Wait for the weather to improve to good VFR conditions.<br />Take a pilot who is more experienced or who is certified as an instrument flight rules (IFR) pilot.<br />Delay the flight.<br />Cancel the flight.<br />Drive.<br />
  34. 34. Aeronautical Decision Making Skills<br />The importance of learning and understanding effective ADM skills cannot be overemphasized. <br />While progress is continually being made in the advancement of pilot training methods, aircraft equipment and systems, and services for pilots, accidents still occur. <br />Despite all the changes in technology to improve flight safety, one factor remains the same: the human factor, which leads to errors. <br />It is estimated that approximately 80-85 percent of all aviation accidents are related to human factors, and the vast majority of these accidents occur during landing (24.1 percent) and takeoff (23.4 percent).<br />
  35. 35. Contrary to popular belief, good judgment can (and must!) be taught.<br />Tradition held that good judgment was a natural by-product of experience, and as pilots continued to log accident-free flight hours, a corresponding increase of good judgment was assumed. We now know that simply adding hours to the logbook doesn’t guarantee improved decision making skills.<br />The ability to make good decisions is based upon direct or indirect experience and education.<br />ADM provides a structured, systematic approach to analyzing changes that occur during a flight and how these changes might affect a flight’s safe outcome.<br />
  36. 36. Steps for good decision-making are:<br />Identifying personal attitudes hazardous to safe flight.<br />Learning behavior modification techniques.<br />Learning how to recognize and cope with stress.<br />Developing risk assessment skills.<br />Using all resources.<br />Evaluating the effectiveness of one’s ADM skills.<br />
  37. 37. Analytical Decision-Making<br />Analytical decision-making is a form of decision-making that takes both time and evaluation of options. <br />A form of this type of decision-making is based upon the acronym “DECIDE.” It provides a six-step process for the pilot to logically make good aeronautical decisions. <br />For example, a pilot who flew from Houston, Texas to Jacksonville, Florida in a Merlin failed to use the decision-making process correctly and to his advantage. <br />Noteworthy about this example is how easily pilots are swayed from taking best courses of action when convenient courses are interpreted as being in our best interest.<br />
  38. 38. D is for Detect<br />Detect a change or hazard. <br />In the case at hand, the pilot was running late after conducting business meetings early in the morning. He and his family departed one hour later than expected. In this case, one would assess the late departure and amend the expected arrival time.<br />However, if the pilot is impetuous, these circumstances translate into a hazard. Because this pilot was in a hurry, he did not assess for impact and, as a result, did not amend the arrival time. <br />Key in any decision-making is detecting the situation and its subtleties as a hazard; otherwise, no action is taken by the pilot. It is often the case that the pilot fails to see the evolving hazard. <br />On the other hand, you have the pilot who does see and understand the hazard, yet makes a decision to ignore it. In this case, the issue is not an understanding of decision-making, but one of attitude.<br />
  39. 39. E is for Estimate<br />Estimate the need to counter or react to the change. <br />As the pilot progressed to the destination, it became apparent that the destination weather (at Craig Field in Jacksonville) was forecast as below approach minimums (due to fog) at the time of arrival. However, weather at an alternative airport just 40 miles away was visual flight rules (VFR). <br />At this time, the pilot should have assessed several factors to include the probability of making a successful approach and landing at Craig versus using an alternative field. <br />In one case, the approach is certainly challenging, but it is an approach at the intended destination. The other location (unencumbered by weather) is inconvenient to the personnel waiting on the ground, requiring that they drive 40 miles to meet the pilot and his family.<br />
  40. 40. C is for Choose<br />Choose a desirable outcome for the flight. <br />Selecting a desirable outcome requires objectivity, and this is when pilots make grave errors. <br />Instead of selecting the course of outcome with consideration to challenges of airmanship, pilots typically select an outcome that is convenient for both themselves and others. Without additional input, the choice is not only flawed but also reinforced by their own rationale. <br />In this case, the pilot of the Merlin intends to make the approach at Craig despite 100 feet ceilings with ¼ mile visibility.<br />
  41. 41. I is for Identify<br />Identify actions that can successfully control the change. <br />In the situation being discussed, the pilot looks at success as meeting several objectives:<br />Being on time for Thanksgiving dinner<br />Not inconveniencing his relatives waiting on the ground<br />Meeting his own predisposed objective of landing at Craig<br />The pilot failed to be objective in this case. The identification of courses of action were for his psychological success and not the safety of his family.<br />
  42. 42. D is for Do<br />Do take the necessary action. <br />In this case, the pilot selected an approach to the instrument landing system (ILS) runway 32 at Craig where the weather was reported and observed far below the minimums.<br />
  43. 43. E is for Evaluate<br />Evaluate the effect of the action. <br />In many cases like this, the pilot is so sure of his or her decision that the evaluation phase of his or her action is simply on track and on glideslope, despite impossible conditions. <br />Because the situation seems in control, no other evaluation of the progress is employed.<br />
  44. 44. The outcome of this accident was predictable,<br />considering the motivation of the pilot and his failure to monitor the approach using standard and accepted techniques. <br />It was ascertained that the pilot, well above the decision height, saw a row of lights to his right that was interpreted as the runway environment. <br />Instead of confirming with his aircraft’s situational position, the pilot instead took over manually and flew toward the lights, descended below the glidepath, and impacted terrain. The passengers survived, but the pilot was killed.<br />
  45. 45. 3P Model<br />The Perceive, Process, Perform (3P) model for ADM offers a simple, practical, and systematic approach that can be used during all phases of flight:<br />Perceive the given set of circumstances for a flight.<br />Process by evaluating their impact on flight safety.<br />Perform by implementing the best course of action<br />
  46. 46. Automatic Decision-Making<br />In an emergency situation, a pilot might not survive if he or she rigorously applied analytical models to every decision made; there is not enough time to go through all the options.<br />But under these circumstances, does he or she find the best possible solution to every problem?<br />For the past several decades, research into how people actually make decisions has revealed that when pressed for time, experts faced with a task loaded with uncertainty, first assess whether the situation strikes them as familiar. <br />Rather than comparing the pros and cons of different approaches, they quickly imagine how one or a few possible courses of action in such situations will play out. Experts take the first workable option they can find. <br />While it may not be the best of all possible choices, it often yields remarkably good results.<br />
  47. 47. Naturalistic and Automatic Decision-Making<br />These processes were pioneered by Mr. Gary Kleinn, a research psychologist famous for his work in the field of automatic/ naturalistic decision-making. He discovered that laboratory models of decision-making could not describe decision making under uncertainty and fast dynamic conditions.<br />His processes have influenced changes in the ways the Marines and Army train their officers to make decisions and are now impacting decision-making as used within the aviation environment. The ability to make automatic decisions holds true for a range of experts from fire fighters to police officers. It appears the expert’s ability hinges on the recognition of patterns and consistencies that clarify options in complex situations. Experts appear to make provisional sense of a situation, without actually reaching a decision, by launching experience-based actions that in turn trigger creative revisions.<br />This is a reflexive type of decision-making anchored in training and experience and is most often used in times of emergencies when there is no time to practice analytical decision-making. Naturalistic or automatic decision-making improves with training and experience, and a pilot will find himself or herself using a combination of decision-making tools that correlate with individual experience and training.<br />
  48. 48. Operational Pitfalls<br />Operational pitfalls are traps that pilots fall into, avoidance of which is actually simple in nature. <br />A pilot should always have an alternate flight plan for where to land in case of an emergency on every flight. <br />For example, a pilot may decide to spend a morning flying the traffic pattern but does not top off the fuel tanks because he or she is only flying the traffic pattern. Make considerations for the unexpected. What if another aircraft blows a tire during landing and the runway is closed? What will the pilot in the traffic pattern do? <br />Although the odds may be low for something of this nature to happen, every pilot should have an alternate plan that answers the question, “Where can I land?” and the follow-up question, “Do I have enough fuel?”<br />
  49. 49. Weather is the largest single cause of aviation fatalities.<br />Most of these accidents occur to a GA operator, usually flying a light single- or twin-engine aircraft, who encounters instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) conditions while operating under VFR. <br />Over half the pilots involved in weather accidents did not receive an official weather briefing. Once the flight is under way, the number of pilots who receive a weather update from automated flight service station (AFSS) is dismal. An analysis done by FAA’s Aviation Safety Information Analysis System (ASIAS) found that during a recent five-year period, only 19 pilots out of 586 fatal accident flights received any information from flight watch or an AFSS, once en route. <br />It is important to recognize that weather presents a hazard, which in turn can become an unmanageable risk. GA aircraft must fly in the weather rather than above it. Since weather can be changeable, it is likely that during flight, a pilot will encounter weather conditions different from what was expected. The longer the flight, the greater the potential for significant change.<br />
  50. 50. Scud Running<br />Scud running, or continued VFR flight into instrument flight rules (IFR) conditions, pushes the pilot and aircraft capabilities to the limit when the pilot tries to make visual contact with the terrain. <br />This is one of the most dangerous things a pilot can do and illustrates how poor ADM <br /> links directly to a human <br /> factor that leads to an accident. <br />A number of instrument-rated pilots die scud running while operating VFR. Scud running is seldom successful, as can be seen in the following accident report.<br />
  51. 51. Scud Running<br />A Cessna 172, piloted by a commercial pilot, was substantially damaged when it struck several trees during a precautionary landing on a road. Instrument meteorological conditions (IMC) prevailed at the time of the accident. The personal cross-country flight was being conducted without a flight plan. <br />The pilot had purchased the airplane in Arkansas and was ferrying it to his fixed base operation (FBO) in Utah. En route stops were made and prior to departing the last stop, the pilot, in a hurry and not wanting to walk back to the FBO to call flight service, discussed the weather with a friend who told the pilot that the weather was clear to the north.<br />Poor weather conditions prevented him from landing at his original destination, so the pilot turned around and landed at a privately owned airport with no service facilities. Shortly thereafter, the pilot took off again and looped north toward his destination. The “weather got bad” and the pilot decided to make a precautionary landing on a snow-covered road.<br />
  52. 52. The road came to a “T” and the airplane slid off the end. The left wing and propeller struck the ground and the right wing struck a tree. The right wing had leading edge compression damage outboard of the root, and the left wing leading edge was crushed near the wing tip fairing. Both propeller blades were bent. This accident was the result of a chain of poor decisions.<br />The pilot himself recalled what he should have done in this situation, “I should have picked a spot to do a precautionary landing sooner before the weather got bad. Second, I should have called flight service to get a weather briefing, instead of discussing it with a friend on the ramp.”<br />
  53. 53. Get-There-Itis<br />In get-there-itis, personal or external pressure clouds the vision and impairs judgment by causing a fixation on the original goal or destination combined with a total disregard for alternative course of action. “I have to be in Houston by 7 o’clock.” <br />
  54. 54. Get There Itis<br />Approximately 15 minutes after departure, the pilot of a Piper encountered IMC. The non-instrument-rated private pilot lost control of the airplane and impacted snow-covered terrain. <br />Prior to the cross-country flight, the pilot obtained three standard weather briefings, of which two were obtained on the previous day and one on the morning of the accident. The briefings included IFR conditions along the planned route of flight.<br />According to the briefing and a statement from a friend, the pilot intended to land the airplane prior to his destination if the weather conditions were not visual flight rules (VFR). The pilot would then “wait it out” until the weather conditions improved. <br />According to radar data, the airplane departed from the airport and was traveling on a southeasterly heading. For the first 15 minutes of the flight, the airplane maintained a level altitude and a consistent heading. For the last minute of the flight, the airplane entered a descent of 2,500 feet per minute (fpm), a climb of 3,000 fpm, a 1,300 fpm descent, and the airplane’s heading varied in several degrees. The airplane impacted the terrain in a right wing low, nose-down attitude.<br />
  55. 55. Looking beyond the summary,<br />get-there-itisleads to a poor aeronautical decision because this pilot repeatedly sought weather briefings for a VFR flight from Pueblo, Colorado, to Tyler, Texas. <br />During a 17-minute briefing at 0452, he was informed of weather conditions along his planned route of flight that included IFR conditions that were moving south, moderate icing conditions for the state of Colorado, and low ceilings of visibility along the planned route of flight.<br />His next call took place at 0505, approximately 1½ hours prior to takeoff. The pilot responded to the reported weather conditions by saying “so I’ve got a, I’ve got a little tunnel there that looks decent right now...from what that will tell me I’ve got a, I’ve got an open shot over the butte.”<br />The pilot began the flight 1½ hours after his weather update, neglecting to weigh the risks created by a very volatile weather situation developing across the state.<br />
  56. 56. Probable Cause and Statistics<br />The National Transportation Safety Board (NTSB) determined the probable cause of this accident was the pilot’s failure to maintain control of the airplane after an inadvertent encounter with IMC, resulting in the subsequent impact with terrain. <br />Contributing factors were the pilot’s inadequate preflight planning, self-induced pressure to conduct the flight, and poor judgment.<br />Unfortunately for this pilot, he fell into a high-risk category.<br />According to the NTSB, pilots on flights of more than 300 nautical miles (NM) are 4.7 times more likely to be involved in an accident than pilots on flights of 50 NM or less. <br />Another statistic also put him in to the potential accident category: his lack of an instrument rating. Studies have found that VFR mpilotsare trained to avoid bad weather and when they find themselves in poor weather conditions, they do not have the experience to navigate their way through it.<br />
  57. 57. Continuing VFR into IMC<br />Continuing VFR into IMC often leads to spatial disorientation or collision with ground/obstacles. It is even more dangerous when the pilot is not instrument rated or current. <br />The FAA and NTSB have studied the problem extensively with the goal of reducing this type of accident. Weather-related accidents, particularly those associated with VFR flight into IMC, continue to be a threat to GA safety because 80 percent of the VFR-IMC accidents resulted in a fatality.<br />One question frequently asked is whether or not pilots associated with VFR flight into IMC even knew they were about to encounter hazardous weather. <br />It is difficult to know from accident records exactly what weather information the pilot obtained before and during flight, but the pilot in the following accident departed in marginal visual meteorological conditions (VMC).<br />
  58. 58. Continuing VFR into IMC<br />In 2007, a Beech Bonanza was destroyed when it impacted terrain. <br />The private, non-instrument-rated pilot departed in VMC on a personal flight and requested VFR flight following to his destination. <br />When he neared his destination, he contacted approach control and reported that his altitude was 2,500 feet above mean sea level (MSL). <br />Approach control informed the pilot that there were moderate to heavy rain showers over the destination airport. The pilot reported that he was experiencing “poor visibility” and was considering turning 180° to “go back.” <br />Approach control informed the pilot that IMC prevailed north of his position with moderate to heavy rain showers. Their exchange follows:<br />
  59. 59. At 1414:53, approach control asked the pilot what was his current destination. The pilot responded, “We’re deviating. I think we’re going to go back over near Eau Claire, but, ah, we’re going to see what the weather is like. We’re, we’re kindain the soup at this point so I’m trying to get back, ah, to the east.”<br />At 1415:10, approach control informed the pilot that there was “some level one rain or some light rain showers” that were about seven miles ahead of his present position.<br />At 1415:30, the pilot asked approach control, “What is the ah, ah, Lakeville weather? I was showing seven thousand and overcast on the system here. Is that still holding?”<br />Approach control responded, “No, around [the] Minneapolis area we’re overcast at twenty three hundred and twenty one hundred in the vicinity of all the other airports around here.”<br />At 1415:49, the pilot stated, “I’m going to head due south at this time, down to, ah, about two thousand and make it into Lakeville.”<br />Approach control responded, “ can proceed south bound.” At 1 4 1 6 : 0 2 , t h e p i l o t r e s p o n d e d , “ . . . t h a n k s (unintelligible).”<br />
  60. 60. There were no further radio transmissions.<br />After the last radio transmission, three radar returns indicated the - plane d descended from 2,500 feet to 2,300 feet MSL b before it was lost from radar contact.<br /> A witness reported he heard an airplane and t saw the airplane descending through a cloud layer about 400–500 feet above the ground. The airplane plane was in about a 50° nose-down attitude - with it’s engine producing “cruise power.” He - reported the airplane was flying at a high rate of - - speed for about four seconds until he heard the airplane- impact with terrain. The observed weather in the - a- area of the was reported as marginal VMC and IMC.<br />The - The NTSB determined the probable cause(s) of this acc- accident to be the pilot’s continued flight in- into IMC, which resulted in spatial d disorientation and loss of control.<br />
  61. 61. Research can offer no single explanation for this type of accident. <br />Is it the end result of poor situational awareness, hazardous risk perception, motivational factors, or simply improper decision-making? Or is it that adequate weather information is unavailable, simply not used, or perhaps not understood? Extracting critical facts from multiple sources of weather information can be challenging for even the experienced aviator. And once the pilot is in the air, en route weather information is available only to the extent that he or she seeks it out if their aircraft is not equipped with operational weather displays.<br />No one has yet determined why a pilot would fly into IMC when limited by training to fly under VFR. In many cases, the pilot does not understand the risk. Without education, we have a fuzzy perception of hazards. <br />It should be noted that pilots are taught to be confident when flying. Did overconfidence and ability conflict with good decisionmaking in this accident? Did this pilot, who had about 461 flight hours, but only 17 hours in make and model overrate his ability to fly this particular aircraft? Did he underestimate the risk of flying in marginal VFR conditions?<br />
  62. 62. Loss of Situational Awareness<br />Situational awareness is the accurate perception and understanding of all the factors and conditions within the four fundamental risk elements (pilot, aircraft, environment, and type of operation) that affect safety before, during, and after the flight. <br />Thus, loss of situational awareness results in a pilot not knowing where he or she is, an inability to recognize deteriorating circumstances, and the misjudgment of the rate of deterioration.<br />
  63. 63. In 2007, an instrument-rated commercial pilot departed ona cross-country flight through IMC.<br />The pilot made radio transmissions to ground control, tower, low radar approach control, and high radar approach control that he was “new at instruments” and that he had not flown in IMC “in a long time.” <br />While maneuvering to get back on the centerline of the airway, while operating in an area of heavy precipitation, the pilot lost control of the airplane after he became spatially disoriented.<br />Recorded radar data revealed flight with stable parameters until approximately 1140:49 when the airplane is recorded making an unexpected right turn at a rate of 2° per second The pilot may not have noticed a turn at this rate since there were no radar calls to departure control. <br />The right turn continues until radar contact is lost at 1141:58 at which point that airplane is turning at a rate of approximately 5° per second and descending at over 3,600 fpm.<br />
  64. 64. Wreckage and impact info was consistent with a right bank, low-angle, high-speed descent.<br />IMC prevailed in the area at the time of the accident. <br />The descent profile was found to be consistent with the “graveyard spiral.”<br /> Prior to flight, for unknown reasons, the telephone conversations with the AFSS progressed from being conservative to a strong desire to fly home, our old friend “get-home-itis.”<br />
  65. 65. The pilot had telephoned AFSS six times prior to take off to request weather reports and forecasts. <br />The first phone call lasted approximately 18 minutes during which time the AFSS briefer forecasts IMC conditions for the route of flight and briefs an airmen’s meteorological information (AIRMET) for IFR conditions. <br />The pilot stated that he did not try to take off a day earlier because he recalled that his instrument flight instructor told him not to take off if he did not feel comfortable.<br />
  66. 66. During the second phone call, the pilot stated he was instrument rated but did not want to take any chances. At this time, the AFSS briefer forecast light rain and marginal conditions for VFR. <br />The third phone call lasted approximately 5 minutes during which the AFSS briefer gives weather, the AIRMET, and forecasts a cycle of storms for the day of flight. The pilot responds that it sounds like a pretty bad day to fly. <br />During the fourth phone call, the pilot states that he has been advised by a flight instructor at his destination airport that he should try to wait it out because the weather is “pretty bad right now” The AFSS briefer agrees and briefs light to moderate rain showers in the destination area and the AIRMET for IFR conditions. The AFSS briefer states that after 1100 the weather should improve.<br />
  67. 67. At 1032, the pilot calls AFSS again and sounds distressed. The pilot stated he wants to get home, has not showered in 1½ days, is getting tired, and wants to depart as soon as possible.<br />The AFSS briefer briefs the AIRMET for IFR conditions and forecasts IFR en route. At 1055, the pilot phones AFSS for the final time and talks for approximately 7 minutes. Then, he files an IFR flight plan. The AFSS briefer states improving conditions and recommends delaying departure to allow conditions to improve. However, this pilot made the decision to fly in weather conditions clearly outside his personal flying comfort zone. Once he had exceeded his proficiency level, the newly minted instrument pilot had no instructor in the other seat to take over.<br />The NTSB determines the probable cause of this accident to be pilot loss of control due to spatial disorientation.<br />Contributing factors were the pilot’s perceived need to fly to home station and his lack of flight experience in actual IMC<br />
  68. 68. Flying Outside the Envelope<br />Flying outside the envelope is an unjustified reliance on the mistaken belief that the airplane’s high performance capability meets the demands imposed by the pilot’s (usually overestimated) flying skills. While it can occur in any type aircraft, advanced avionics aircraft have contributed to an increase in this type accident.<br />According to the Aircraft Owners and Pilots Association (AOPA) Air Safety Foundation (ASF), advanced avionics aircraft are entering GA fleet in large numbers. <br />Advanced avionics aircraft includes a variety of aircraft from the newly designed to retrofitted existing aircraft of varying ages. What they all have in common are complex avionics packages.<br />While advanced avionics aircraft offer numerous safety and operational advantages, the FAA has identified a safety issue that concerns pilots who develop an unwarranted overreliance on the avionics and the aircraft, believing the equipment will compensate fully for pilot shortcomings.<br />
  69. 69. In Conclusion<br />There is much more to be said about the decision making process for pilots and much more to be learned from the mistakes of other pilots. Unfortunately, we don’t have time to get any further into it today.<br />For more, go to for the Risk Management Handbook and Advisory Circulars on ADM and resource management. <br />Don’t forget about the ASRS database associated with the reports submitted via NASA form.<br />Thanks for joining us tonight, and best of luck as you continue your aviation education!<br />