The document summarizes an economic outlook forum held on March 25, 2021. It includes welcome remarks from local officials and organizations. The key presentation was given by Dr. Michael Walden on the economic outlook for 2021 as the post-pandemic economy emerges. He discussed trends showing an improving economy with falling COVID cases and rising vaccinations. However, variants remain a risk. The recession was deep but short-lived. The outlook forecasts continued growth in North Carolina's GDP and falling unemployment rate. Implications were discussed for education, remote work, residential locations, and the research triangle region.

1. Welcome to the
2021 Economic Outlook Forum
March 25, 2021

2. Katie Loovis
#CHCCriticalIssues
Vice President for External
Affairs
The Chamber For a Greater
Chapel Hill-Carrboro
Welcome

3. Betsy Harris
#CHCCriticalIssues
Project Coordinator, Armacell
Chair of The Chamber’s
Government Affairs Committee
Welcome

4. Dr. Jean Hamilton
#CHCCriticalIssues
Orange County Commissioner
Welcome

5. 2021 Critical Issues Series presented by:
Providing local news, Tar Heel sports, events, music, and community info
#CHCCriticalIssues

6. 2021 Critical Issues Series presented by:
Building a smarter energy future
#CHCCriticalIssues

7. 2021 Critical Issues Series presented by:
A comprehensive community college serving
Durham and Orange counties
#CHCCriticalIssues

8. Aaron Nelson
#CHCCriticalIssues
President and CEO
The Chamber For a Greater
Chapel Hill-Carrboro
Welcome

9. Segment 1
Dr. Michael Walden
#CHCCriticalIssues

10. ECONOMIC OUTLOOK 2021:
WELCOME TO THE POST-PANDEMIC ECONOMY
Dr. Michael L. Walden, Reynolds Distinguished Professor
North Carolina State University

11. THE VIRUS IS RETREATING AND THE ECONOMY IS GAINING
1.CASES, HOSPITALIZATIONS, & DEATHS TRENDING DOWN
2.VACCINATIONS ARE QUICKLY INCREASING
3.RESTRICTIONS ARE EASING
4.JOBS & ECONOMIC ACTIVITY ARE TRENDING HIGHER
5.FEDERAL GOVERNMENT IS PUMPING IN MORE MONEY
6.HOPES RISE FOR MORE NORMALCY BY THE FALL

12. BIGGEST WORRY:
VARIANTS HIT BEFORE
VACCINATIONS
PROTECT US
WORST CASE SCENARIO:
ECONOMY IS OPENED BEFORE
ENOUGH ARE VACCINATED,
LEAVING DOOR OPEN TO VARIANTS

13. RECESSION WAS
DEEP BUT SHORT
LARGE NEGATIVE
GROWTH IN SECOND
QUARTER 2020
BUT QUICK REBOUND IN
THIRD QUARTER 2020

14. MONTHLY CHANGE IN NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT, US & NC
US, Change in millions
-25
-20
-15
-10
-5
0
5
10
NC, Change in thousands
-700
-600
-500
-400
-300
-200
-100
0
100
200
300

15. MONTHLY CHANGE IN NON-FARM EMPLOYMENT, AS A
PERCENT OF FEBRUARY TOTAL EMPLOYMENT, US, NC, DUR-CHAPEL HILL
-16
-14
-12
-10
-8
-6
-4
-2
0
2
4
6
March April May June July August Sept Oct Nov Dec. Jan.
US NC Dur-Chapel Hill

16. UNEMPLOYMENT RATES, US, NC, DUR-CHAPEL HILL
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
February March April May June July August Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan.
US NC DUR-CHAPEL HILL

17. ORANGE CO. TAXABLE SALES & PURCHASES
120
140
160
180
200
220
240
jan feb mar april may june july aug sept oct nov dec
MILLIONS OF DOLLARS
2019 2020

18. ECONOMIC SECTOR DIFFERENCES: EMPLOYMENT AS PERCENT OF
FEBRURAY 2020 EMPLOYMENT (ORANGE COUNTY)
Sector April 2020 January 2021
All 90% 95%
Construction 95% 102%
Manufacturing 93% 99%
Retail Trade 85% 97%
Information 96% 102%
Financial Services 99% 99%
Professional Services 94% 104%
Education/Health 94% 96%
Leisure/Hospitality 54% 68%
Other Services 75% 89%
Government 98% 92%

19. THE FEDERAL RESPONSE:
$6 TRILLION IN
SPENDING
ALL BORROWED
$48 BILLION TO NC
FUTURE ECONOMIC
GROWTH WILL BE LOWER
BUT ALTERNATIVE: LOSE
BIG PART OF ECONOMY
TODAY FUTURE

20. LONG-RUN WORRIES
STOCK MARKET OVER-VALUED?
HIGHER INFLATION AND INTEREST RATES COMING?
LOWER-VALUED DOLLAR?
TEST OF “MODERN MONETARY THEORY”?

21. STATE & LOCAL BUDGETS RECEIVING A BIG BOOST
$350 BILLION IN NEW STIMULUS BILL
$9 BILLION TO NC STATE, COUNTIES, AND MUNICIPALITIES
HELP REPLACE ANY LOSSES FROM RECESSION
TARGETTED FUNDS FOR UNIVERSITIES, K-12, SMALL BUSINESS,
RESTAURANTS, BROADBAND, AND INFRASTRUCTURE

22. LEADING NC INDEX SUGGESTS RECOVERY
70
75
80
85
90
95
100
105
2007
feb
2007
may
2007
aug
2007
nov
2008
feb
2008
may
2008
aug
2008
nov
2009
feb
2009
may
2009
aug
2009
nov
2010
feb
2010
may
2010
aug
2010
nov
2011
feb
2011
may
2011
aug
2011
nov
2012
feb
2012
may
2012
aug
2012
nov
2013
feb
2013
may
2013
aug
2013
nov
2014
feb
2014
may
2014
aug
2014
nov
2015
feb
2015
may
2015
aug
2015
nov
2016
feb
2016
may
2016
aug
2016
nov
2017
feb
2017
may
2017
aug
2017
nov
2018
feb
2018
may
2018
aug
2018
nov
2019
feb
2019
may
2019
sept
2019
dec
2020
mar
2020
jun
2020
sept
Source: calculations by Dr. Michael Walden
NCSU INDEX OF NORTH CAROLINA LEADING ECONOMIC INDICATORS

23. FORECASTED PATH OF NORTH CAROLINA’S REAL GDP
507
512
467
504
509
505
510
515
521
538
548
450
470
490
510
530
550
570
2019, IV 2020, I 2020, II 2020, III 2020, IV 2021, I 2021, II 2021, III 2021, IV 2022 2023

24. FORECASTED PATH OF NORTH CAROLINA’S
UNEMPLOYMENT RATE
3.8
11.1
8.2
6.5
7 7
6.7
6.5
5.8
5.4
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
2020,I 2020, II 2020, III 2020, IV 2021, I 2021, II 2021, III 2021, IV 2022 2023

25. MORE LABOR
MARKET DISRUPTON
BIGGEST ISSUE OF POST-
PANDEMIC ECONOMY
SHIFT FROM PRODUCTION TO
DELIVERY, SERVICES
MORE JOBS IN TECHNOLOGY
POST-HIGH SCHOOL TRAINING,
APPRENTICESHIPS, ON-THE-JOB
TRAINING, COLLABORATIONS
BE PRO-ACTIVE

26. BIG IMPLICATIONS
FOR EDUCATION
SOME LEVEL OF DISTANCE
LEARNING IS HERE TO STAY AT
ALL LEVELS OF EDUCATION
SHOULD GET BETTER
EDUCATION
RE-MADE

27. TELE-WORKING
8% PRE-VIRUS
40% AT PANDEMIC PEAK
20% - 30% LONG-RUN LEVEL
WATCH HOW INTERNET IS
PROVIDED
WORK – HOME
BALANCE

28. DRONE DELIVERY OF
PRODUCTS; INTERNET
DELIVERY OF SERVICES
AVOIDS FACE TO FACE CONTACT
NEXT: 4D HOME MANUFACTURING
IMPLICATIONS FOR
CONTROL OF THE SKIES

29. RECONSIDERATION OF
RESIDENTIAL LOCATION
“DISTANCE IS DEAD”
PROXIMITY TO WORK,
SCHOOLS, SHOPPING NO
LONGER NEEDED
“NEW FARM LIFESTYLE” ON
CHEAPER LAND
WHERE IS HOME ?

30. IMPLICATIONS FOR CHAPEL HILL AND THE TRIANGLE
CONTINUED GROWTH –PERHAPS ACCELERATED – AFTER THE PANDEMIC
BUT WATCH FOR CHANGES AT UNC-CH: MORE DISTANCE LEARNING; IMPACTS ON LOCAL ECONOMY ?
NORTH CAROLINA CONSIDERED A “SAFE STATE”
AMONG 380 METRO AREAS, DUR-CHAPEL HILL WAS 35TH HIGHEST IN GROWTH SINCE 2000
LOOK FOR SUBURBS TO HAVE FASTEST GROWTH
NEXT GAME-CHANGER – UNIVERSALLY AVAILABLE HIGH SPEED INTERNET

31. “REAL SOLUTONS” IS NOW AVAILABLE

32. AND SO IS “DISUNIONIA”

33. Our Local Economy

34. Our Local Economy
Is Regional

35. Orange County + Chatham County + Neighbors

36. Economic Drivers

37. Ed

38. Ed
Med

39. Ed
Med
Bed

40. Employment &
Enrollment

41. Innovation, Tech &
Manufacturing

42. Wages &
Spending

43. Employment &
Employers

44. Orange County Top 25 Employers
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages via NC Dept of Commerce, 2019
1. UNC Chapel Hill
2. UNC Health Care System
3. Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools
4. Orange County Schools
5. UNC Physicians Network LLC
6. Orange County Government
7. Town of Chapel Hill
8. Eurosport
9. Wal-Mart Associates Inc.
10. Aramark Food & Support Services Group
11. Harris Teeter
12. A K G Of America Inc
13. UNC Physicians Network LLC
14. Summit Design & Engineering Services
15. Food Lion
16. Hyatt Corporation
17. The Chapel Hill Residential
18. P H E Inc
19. Performance BMW
20. Weaver Street Market
21. Residential Services Inc
22. Westrock Services LLC
23. Whole Foods
24. United Parcel Service Inc.
25. United States Postal Service

45. Orange County Top 25 Employers
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages via NC Dept of Commerce, 2019
1. UNC Chapel Hill
2. UNC Health Care System
3. Chapel Hill-Carrboro City Schools
4. Orange County Schools
5. UNC Physicians Network LLC
6. Orange County Government
7. Town of Chapel Hill
8. Eurosport
9. Wal-Mart Associates Inc.
10. Aramark Food & Support Services Group
11. Harris Teeter
12. A K G Of America Inc
13. UNC Physicians Network LLC
14. Summit Design & Engineering Services
15. Food Lion
16. Hyatt Corporation
17. The Chapel Hill Residential
18. P H E Inc
19. Performance BMW
20. Weaver Street Market
21. Residential Services Inc
22. Westrock Services LLC
23. Whole Foods
24. United Parcel Service Inc.
25. United States Postal Service

46. Chatham County Top 25 Employers
1. Chatham County Schools
2. County Of Chatham
3. Carolina Meadows Inc
4. Mountaire Farms of NC Inc
5. Galloway Ridge Inc
6. Wal-Mart Associates Inc.
7. Flakeboard America Limited
8. Chatham Hospital Inc
9. Fitch Creations, Inc (Fearrington)
10. Piedmont Health Services Inc
11. Harris Teeter
12. The Laurels Of Chatham
13. Lowes Home Centers
14. Brookwood Farms Inc
15. Sunrise Home Care Inc
16. Southern Veneer Specialty Products
17. Aegis Home Care LLC
18. Palletone of North Carolina Inc
19. Food Lion
20. Strata Solar
21. Mas Acme USA
22. Sweetwater Landscapes LLC
23. Governors Club Inc
24. Town & Country Hardware Stores
25. Central Carolina Community College
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages via NC Dept of Commerce, 2019

47. Chatham County Top 25 Employers
1. Chatham County Schools
2. County Of Chatham
3. Carolina Meadows Inc
4. Mountaire Farms of NC Inc
5. Galloway Ridge Inc
6. Wal-Mart Associates Inc.
7. Flakeboard America Limited
8. Chatham Hospital Inc
9. Fitch Creations, Inc (Fearrington)
10. Piedmont Health Services Inc
11. Harris Teeter
12. The Laurels Of Chatham
13. Lowes Home Centers
14. Brookwood Farms Inc
15. Sunrise Home Care Inc
16. Southern Veneer Specialty Products
17. Aegis Home Care LLC
18. Palletone of North Carolina Inc
19. Food Lion
20. Strata Solar
21. Mas Acme USA
22. Sweetwater Landscapes LLC
23. Governors Club Inc
24. Town & Country Hardware Stores
25. Central Carolina Community College
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages via NC Dept of Commerce, 2019

48. Top 10 Orange County Industries
Number of Enterprises by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), 2019
812
513
400
341
339
323
231
208
195
159
Professional, Scientific, & Technical
Services
Other Services (Except Public Admin)
Health Care & Social Assistance
Accommodation & Food Services
Retail Trade
Admin/Support & Waste Mgmt
Finance & Insurance
Real Estate, Rental & Leasing
Educational Services
Construction
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages via NC Dept of Commerce, 2019

49. Top 10 Chatham County Industries
Number of Enterprises by North American Industry Classification System (NAICS), 2019
Source: Quarterly Census of Employment and Wages via NC Dept of Commerce, 2019

50. Orange County
“Employer Firms”
(firms with employees)

51. Estimated
Number of
Orange County
Employer Firms
Total = 2,885
Source: Census Bureau | 2017 Annual Business Survey
Carrboro, 391
(14%)
Chapel Hill, 1502
(52%)
Hillsborough, 321,
(11%)
Rest of
Orange, 671
(23%)

52. Estimated Sales,
Value of Shipments,
or Revenue of
Orange County
Employer
Firms
Total = $7.77 billion
Carrboro,
$655 million
Chapel Hill, $3.84 billion
Hillsborough,
$1.48 billion
Rest of Orange,
$1.8 billion
Source: Census Bureau | 2017 Annual Business Survey

53. Estimated
Annual Payroll of
Employer Firms
Total = $1.594 billion
Carrboro,
$147
million
Chapel Hill,
$905
million
Hillsborough,
$268 million
Rest of Orange,
$276 million
Source: Census Bureau | 2017 Annual Business Survey

54. Estimated Minority-Owned Employer Firms
Estimated Number of Minority-Owned Firms With Employees By County
Source: Census Bureau | 2017 Annual Business Survey
349
155
1,051
262 318
Orange County Chatham County Durham County Alamance County Johnston County

55. Minority-Owned Employers Make Up 11-18% of All Firms
Estimated Minority-Owned Firms as a Percent of All Firms, Percent of Total Sales, and
Percent of Total Payroll
11%
12% 12%
18%
11% 11%
15%
12%
Chapel Hill Orange
County
Chatham
County
Durham
County
Alamance
County
Johnston
County
Wake
County
North
Carolina
Source: Census Bureau | 2017 Annual Business Survey

56. 33% of All Carrboro Firms are Women-Owned
Estimated Women-Owned Firms as a Percent of All Firms, Percent of Total Sales,
and Percent of Total Payroll
20% 22%
18%
22%
33%
17%
20% 21%
NC Orange Chatham Chapel Hill Carrboro Alamance Durham Wake
Source: Census Bureau | 2017 Annual Business Survey

57. Income

58. Orange County Highest Per Capita Income in State
Source: 5-Year American Community Survey; 2018
Orange County (1), $40,650
Chatham County (2), $39,299
Wake County (3), $39,102
Durham County (6), $34,063
Robeson County (100), $17,881
$-
$5,000
$10,000
$15,000
$20,000
$25,000
$30,000
$35,000
$40,000
$45,000
Orange
County
Chatham
County
Wake
County
Mecklenburg
County
Union
County
Durham
County
Dare
County
Moore
County
New
Hanover
County
Iredell
County
Carteret
County
Buncombe
County
Brunswick
County
Cabarrus
County
Polk
County
Currituck
County
Forsyth
County
Henderson
County
Guilford
County
Davie
County
Haywood
County
Lincoln
County
Macon
County
Craven
County
Pender
County
Transylvania
County
Pamlico
County
Nash
County
Camden
County
Catawba
County
Clay
County
Franklin
County
Beaufort
County
Granville
County
Alamance
County
Gaston
County
Person
County
Johnston
County
Perquimans
County
Pitt
County
Gates
County
Madison
County
Rowan
County
Davidson
County
Stokes
County
Watauga
County
Stanly
County
Alexander
County
Cumberland
County
Wilson
County
Randolph
County
Wayne
County
Chowan
County
Jackson
County
Ashe
County
Surry
County
Mitchell
County
Lee
County
Onslow
County
Wilkes
County
Pasquotank
County
Rockingham
County
Yadkin
County
Burke
County
Martin
County
Yancey
County
Vance
County
Harnett
County
Caswell
County
Caldwell
County
Montgomery
County
Cherokee
County
McDowell
County
Rutherford
County
Warren
County
Lenoir
County
Columbus
County
Sampson
County
Cleveland
County
Jones
County
Alleghany
County
Washington
County
Halifax
County
Swain
County
Bladen
County
Richmond
County
Hoke
County
Northampton
County
Bertie
County
Avery
County
Anson
County
Edgecombe
County
Duplin
County
Graham
County
Hertford
County
Tyrrell
County
Hyde
County
Greene
County
Scotland
County
Robeson
County

59. Orange Ranks 1st and Chatham 2nd in Average AGI
Average Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) on Tax Returns
Source: IRS, 2017
Average AGI on All Tax Returns Rank (of 100 Counties)
Orange County $92,694 1
Chatham County $83,972 2
Wake County $82,847 3
Union County $81,303 4
Mecklenburg County $78,805 5
Iredell County $67,584 6
Moore County $66,436 7

60. Orange Ranks 1st, Chatham 3rd in AGI on Itemized Returns
Average Adjusted Gross Income (AGI) on Itemized Tax Returns
Average AGI on Itemized Returns Rank (of 100 Counties)
Orange County $185,994 1
Mecklenburg County $163,303 2
Chatham County $157,901 3
Wake County $154,132 5
Guilford County $130,412 11
Durham County $123,478 17
Alamance County $107,398 35
Source: IRS, 2017

61. UNC

62. • ~30,000 Students
• ~13,000 Faculty and Staff
• ~$3.5 Billion Budget (~$500M from NC Approp)
• ~$3.4 Billion Endowment
• ~$1 Billion in Annual Research Funding
• ~$21 Million Square Feet of Campus
• ~$1.5 Billion in Annual Funding of StartUps
UNC Chapel Hill’s Big Impact

63. Orange County
Land Value

64. 2019 Orange County Assessed Value
71% 77%
62% 65%
97%
80%
20% 11%
30% 29%
3%
13%
10% 12% 9% 6%
0%
6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough Mebane Rest of Orange
County
Total County
Residential Commercial Apartment
Source: Orange County Tax Assessor, 2019

65. 2019 Orange County Assessed Value (millions)
$5,145
$1,702
$631 $173
$5,738
$1,435
$234
$304 $77
$183
$697
$267
$89 $17
$13
$0
$1,000
$2,000
$3,000
$4,000
$5,000
$6,000
$7,000
$8,000
Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough Mebane Rest of Orange
County
Residential Commercial Apartment
Source: Orange County Tax Assessor, 2019

66. Orange County Assessed Value Per Acre
Source: Urban3

67. Farming

68. Orange County’s Number of Farms Increasing
Source: USDA Agricultural Census, 2017
604
645
686
2007 2012 2017

69. Orange County Farmland (acres)
60,057 56,666
69,908
2007 2012 2017
Source: USDA Agricultural Census, 2017

70. Market Value of Orange County Products Sold
$28,084,000
$30,613,000
$37,713,000
2007 2012 2017
Source: USDA Agricultural Census, 2017

71. Housing

72. Retail Sales

73. Orange County Taxable Sales Approach $2 Billion
County Taxable Sales in Millions (Inflation Adjusted $2020)
$1,943 $1,956
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
Source: NC Department of Revenue

74. Orange County Taxable Sales Approach $2 Billion
County Taxable Sales in Millions (Inflation Adjusted $2020)
$1,943 $1,956
$-
$200
$400
$600
$800
$1,000
$1,200
$1,400
$1,600
$1,800
$2,000
Source: NC Department of Revenue

75. Chatham County Taxable Sales Exceed $730 million
County Taxable Sales in Millions (Inflation Adjusted $2020)
Source: NC Department of Revenue
$660
$733
$-
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
$700
$800

76. Covid-19 Impact

77. Orange Retail Sales Hold Steady During Pandemic
Percent Change in 2020 Retail Sales vs. Same Month, Previous Year
Source: NC Department of Revenue
3%
2%
-12%
4%
9%
6%
-6%
-20%
-6%
-1%
9%
3%
-1%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%

78. Orange Retail Sales Hold Steady During Pandemic
Percent Change in 2020 Retail Sales vs. Same Month, Previous Year
Source: NC Department of Revenue
3%
2%
-12%
4%
9%
6%
-6%
-20%
-6%
-1%
9%
3%
-1%
-25%
-20%
-15%
-10%
-5%
0%
5%
10%
15%

79. Chatham Retail Sales Increase During Pandemic
Percent Change in 2020 Retail Sales vs. Same Month, Previous Year
26%
48%
10%
13%
18%
27%
9%
16%
12%
20%
12%
18%
19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Source: NC Department of Revenue

80. Chatham Retail Sales Increase During Pandemic
Percent Change in 2020 Retail Sales vs. Same Month, Previous Year
26%
48%
10%
13%
18%
27%
9%
16%
12%
20%
12%
18%
19%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
Source: NC Department of Revenue

81. Dramatic Increase in Retail Sales
10%
21%
11%
18%
13% 13%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
Orange Chatham Johnston Davidson Pitt Watauga
Jan 2020 vs. Jan 2021

82. And Where Does Sales Tax Go?
And Where Does Sales Tax Go?

83. 2019-20 Orange County Sales Tax Distribution
Source: NC Department of Revenue
59%
27%
9.5%
3.4% 1.0% 0.0%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Orange
County
Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough Mebane Durham

84. 2019-20 Orange County Sales Tax Distribution
$30,355,863
$13,679,532
$4,844,839
$1,733,371 $498,036 $7,542
$0
$5,000,000
$10,000,000
$15,000,000
$20,000,000
$25,000,000
$30,000,000
$35,000,000
Orange
(overall)
Chapel Hill Carrboro Hillsborough Mebane Durham
Source: NC Department of Revenue

85. Chamber 50

86. Chamber-50 Index: Credit Card Transaction Value Per Month
$1,632,353 $1,692,001
$526,260
$1,077,703
$0
$500,000
$1,000,000
$1,500,000
$2,000,000
$2,500,000
April 2020

87. Chamber-50 Index: Credit Card Transactions Per Month
12,781
14,826
4,883
6,624
0
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000 Feb-18
Mar-18
Apr-18
May-18
Jun-18
Jul-18
Aug-18
Sep-18
Oct-18
Nov-18
Dec-18
Jan-19
Feb-19
Mar-19
Apr-19
May-19
Jun-19
Jul-19
Aug-19
Sep-19
Oct-19
Nov-19
Dec-19
Jan-20
Feb-20
Mar-20
Apr-20
May-20
Jun-20
Jul-20
Aug-20
Sep-20
Oct-20
Nov-20
Dec-20
Jan-21
April 2020

88. Worker Inflow, Outflow,
& Commuting

89. Chapel Hill Worker Inflows/Outflows
Source: U.S. Census Bureau OnTheMap (LODES), 2017
41,779 Drive In, 14,008 Drive Out, and 6,627 Live and Work in Chapel Hill

90. Orange County Workers Driving In for Work
Growing Faster than Workers Driving Out
26,751
32,262
37,915
36,382
30,747
37,935
40,520
48,026
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
50,000
2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017
Driving Out for Work Driving In for Work
Source: U.S. Census Bureau OnTheMap (LODES), 2017

91. Hotels & Tourism

92. Orange County Domestic Visitor Expenditures Exceed
$200 Million
Inflation Adjusted $2018 (in millions)
Source: Visit NC | CPI Inflation Values from Federal Reserve
$218.38
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250

93. Covid-19 Negatively Impacting Hotel Occupancy
64% 65% 65%
70% 71% 70%
67% 67% 67%
40%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau
Orange County Average Daily Hotel Occupancy, 2011-2020

94. Hotel Occupancy Fell to 13% in April
Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau
Orange County Monthly Hotel Occupancy, 2011-2020
73% 74%
52%
13%
49%
45%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec
2019 2020

95. Covid-19 Negatively Impacting Hotel ADR
$121 $124 $126 $127 $130
$99
$0
$20
$40
$60
$80
$100
$120
$140
2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020
Orange County Average Daily Rate, 2011-2020
Source: Chapel Hill/Orange County Visitors Bureau

96. Unemployment

97. Monthly Unemployment Rate (Unadjusted)
9.1%
4.5%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
1/2008
6/2008
11/2008
4/2009
9/2009
2/2010
7/2010
12/2010
5/2011
10/2011
3/2012
8/2012
1/2013
6/2013
11/2013
4/2014
9/2014
2/2015
7/2015
12/2015
5/2016
10/2016
3/2017
8/2017
1/2018
6/2018
11/2018
4/2019
9/2019
2/2020
7/2020
12/2020
Orange County Chapel Hill Chatham County
1/2008 – 12/2020

99. Economic
Conditions Survey

100. Orange
County,
58%
Chatham
County, 9%
Durham County,
20%
Wake County, 8%
Alamance County, 5%
99 Respondents

101. 103
1-5 Employees, 35%
6-50 Employees, 41%
50+ Employees, 23%
Organization Size

102. How has the current state of the
economy affected your organization?

103. Positive Impact of Economy Declines
105
6% 5%
28%
73%
69%
28%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
2008 2009 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019 2020 2021
Positively
Percent Reporting the Current State of the Economy
is POSITIVELY Affecting Their Organization

104. Negative Impact of Economy Increases
106
56%
52%
2%
4%
32%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
2008 2009 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019 2020 2021
Negatively
Percent Reporting the Current State of the Economy
is NEGATIVELY Affecting Their Organization

105. How Has the Current State of the Economy
Affected Your Organization?
107
44%
32%
50%
39%
6%
28%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2008 2009 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019 2020 2021
Negatively Not Much Positively

106. Percent of respondents whose organizations have been negatively
affected by the economy jumps 28 percentage points from last year
“How has the current state of the economy affected your organization?” 2020 vs. 2021
32%
4%
39%
27%
28%
69%
0% 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% 70% 80% 90% 100%
2021
2020
negatively not much positively

107. Same Storm, Different Boats
6.8
5.9
5.84
5
4.7
4.6
4.5
4.5
4.5
4
4
4
3.6
3.5
2.2
2
1
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10
Construction & Manufacturing
Professional Services (Finance, Insurance, etc)
Real Estate/Rental/Leasing
Government/Public Sector
Education
Transportation
Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Communications
Nonprofit/Social Services
Healthcare
Information Technology
Other Services (HVAC, Mechanic, etc)
Retail
Utilities
Personal Services (Hair, Nail, Fitness, etc.)
Food Service/Drinking Places
Accommodations Average: 4.7
1 = Very Negatively
5 = Neutral
10 = Very Positively
How has the current state of the economy affected your organization?

108. Do you expect sales to increase or
decrease over the next 12 months?

109. 75% of Respondents Expect Sales to Increase in
the Next 12 Months
75%
15%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Increase No Change Decrease

110. …but that’s what they always say
75%
15%
10%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
2015 2016 2018 2019 2020 2021
Increase No Change Decrease

111. Do you plan to add or reduce
workers over the next 12 months?

112. 52% of Respondents Plan to Add Workers in 2021
52%
44%
4%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
We plan to add workers No plans We plan to reduce
workers

113. 52% of Respondents Plan to Add Workers This Year
36%
40%
30%
40%
46%
54%
44% 45%
52%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2018 2019 2020 2021

114. Would you say that local
government here is pro-business,
neutral, or anti-business?

115. 54%
27%
19%
62%
15%
18%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
Somewhat or Very Pro-Business Neutral Somewhat or Very Anti-Business
2020 2021

116. Percentage of Respondents Who View Government as
“Very Pro-Business” Continues to Rise
13.8%
10.5%
12.7%
6.4%
10.4%
22.3%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
2015 2016 2018 2019 2020 2021

117. No Statistically Significant Difference in Government
Perceptions Based on Business Size
3.29
3.56 3.42
0
1
2
3
4
5
Micro Enterprise (1-5
employees)
Mid-Size Business (6-50
employees)
Large Business (50+
employees)
Perceptions of Local Government (1-very anti-business 3-neutral 5-very pro-business)

118. If you could change one thing locally
to help your business thrive (other
than national economic conditions),
what would it be?

119. Questions and Discussion