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Real Estate Market Review
NORTHERN CALIFORNIA | San Francisco County

3rd Quarter

2013

San Francisco
Office
Market Trends
Trends

Absorption
Vacancy
Rental Rate
New Construction

The San Francisco office market continues to attract tenants
from across a wide spectrum of industries around the
globe. After a slow start, the San Francisco leasing market
roared back in the third quarter of the year. This surge in
leasing activity coincides with multiple Financial District
office buildings that are currently on the block for sale. The
technology sector remains the engine driving demand in the
office market, but professional service firms are continuing
to lease space throughout the city. With major tenants still in
the market taking space, we expect high leasing activity to
continue through the end of the year.

Notable Lease Transactions
1455 Market Street
Uber Technologies  88,135 s.f.
500 Terry Francois
Cisco  67,335 s.f.
475 Sansome Street
A2z Development Center, Inc.  64,317 s.f.
345 Spear Street
Google, Inc.  50,218 s.f.

Notable Sales Transactions
1600 Owens (acquisition)
$55.2M ($225/s.f.)
1098 Harrison  $11.5M ($274/s.f.)
355 Hayes Street  $4.15M ($568/s.f.)
1000 Mariposa Street  $2.96M ($352/s.f.)

Market Drivers
EMPLOYMENT. San Francisco’s rate of adding jobs has slightly slowed since
employment rates were nearly at record highs during April. San Francisco’s
unemployment rate has increased from 5.4% in April to 5.9% in July. California’s
unemployment rate has also marginally increased from 8.5% in June to 8.7% in July.
Despite an increase in both the city and state unemployment rates, the San Francisco
unemployment rate remains well below the national average of 7.3%, even while the
state’s unemployment rate rests above it.
TECH LEASING. After seeing no office lease deals larger than 100,000 s.f. signed in
the first half of 2013, there were multiple large deals in the third quarter. The headline
deal of the quarter was at Hills Plaza, on the Embarcadero in the Rincon/South Beach
submarket, where Google expanded its footprint from 270,00 s.f. to 350,000 s.f. Google
had been one of the biggest tenants in the market and its decision allowed Tishman
Speyer to sign a 144,000 s.f. deal with Virginia based telecommunications company
NeuStar Inc to become the anchor tenant at the new Foundry Square III. This lease at
505 Howard is Neustar’s first significant San Francisco location. The third major tech deal
of the quarter was eBay nearly doubling its space in 199 Fremont to 140,000 s.f.
MULTIPLE BUILDINGS ON MARKET. In 2012, the city saw $6 billion in office sales, the
second highest year on record. After a lull in the first half of 2013, the third quarter has
seen multiple buildings hit the market, including 221 Main, 1155 Market, 201 Spear, 888
Brannan, and 655 Montgomery. These offerings will provide opportunities for investors to
enter or expand in this dynamic market, as well as opportunities for sellers to capitalize
while demand is high.
Continued, page 2
San Francisco Office Real Estate Market Review 3rd Quarter 2013 | 1
Office Leasing
Direct asking rental rates for Class A, B, and C buildings average
$51.36, $38.70, and $34.64/s.f., respectively. From the end of the third
quarter 2012, Class A rents are up almost 6%, and Class B/C rents
up almost 7%. These asking rents reflect the lower end of the scale
in the most sought after parts of the city, due to the fact that many
landlords are putting desirable spaces onto the market unpriced and
allowing the market to determine the ultimate rent paid.
Net absorption (the change in occupied space) for San Francisco
was a negative 193,767 s.f. in the third quarter. This is the first
quarter of negative absorption since second quarter 2010. This
is mostly due to the South Financial District having the largest
deficit of all the submarkets, with a net absorption rate of negative
215,970 s.f. 101 Spear alone was responsible for 186,718 s.f. of
the negative net absorption. This negative absorption is a direct
result of the leasing slowdown that occurred during early 2013, but
the heightened leasing activity of the third quarter portends well for
future positive absorption.
The high-water mark for the third quarter was the lease signed by
Lyft Inc. at 185 Clara on the first floor. The lease rate was $50/s.f.

Investment
Many San Francisco offices have recently hit the sales block, yet
San Francisco office market transaction volume slowed dramatically

in the third quarter. Only three properties closed, for a combined
total of $13.3 million. 333 Bush is pending closure, but even with
this transaction the combined total square feet transacted in the
2013 third quarter is one million less than the previous quarter. Since
there were so few transactions this quarter it is difficult to make
accurate assumptions of future market strength.
We anticipate that the 2013’s total transaction volume will finish
between $2-2.5 billion, well below last year’s total of $6 billion.
Moreover, year to date volume is only $863 million, which is down
77% from 2012.
Institutions have been the main buyers, accounting for 68% of
the capital in all San Francisco office purchases. This percentage
is much higher than usual; it was only 35% in 2012. The national
percentage of office buildings purchased by institutions has been
56% in 2013.
The most expensive office building sold this quarter was 1098
Harrison, a 42,039 s.f. office building built in 1924 and renovated in
2011. The building, located in the South of Market submarket, was
sold for approximately $11.5 million ($274/s.f.). to Gaw Captial.
Kaiser Permanente acquired the 1600 Owens development site for
$55.2 million and plan to construct a 264,000 s.f. office building.
*Figures and information for this report look only at office buildings larger than 5,000
square feet and were obtained using 9/19/2013 as the cutoff date for the 3rd Quarter.
Source: CoStar Data

SPOTLIGHT: San Francisco’s Transforming Waterfront
The San Francisco waterfront, which was opened up with the
demolition of the Embarcadero Freeway after the 1989 Loma Prieta
earthquake, has become a destination for tourists and residents and
continues to see major redevelopment projects that stretch from the
North Waterfront south to Pier 70.
The waterfront has been experiencing major changes since the late
1990’s when AT&T Park was built, the Ferry Building was renovated,
and Mission Bay was becoming a destination for UCSF, bio-medical
companies, and tech companies.
At the southern end of the waterfront, the project at Pier 70 is
potentially the largest of these developments. Owned by the Port,
two development projects are underway. Orton Development was
selected to rehabilitate six historic buildings (totaling some 225,854 s.f.)
on the Pier, with construction slated to commence in 2014. A major
development will be undertaken by Forest City with plans calling for
1,000 units of housing as well as 2.5 million square feet of office space.
Kaiser Permanente’s decision to locate within Mission Bay has resulted
in there being only two remaining development sites: the moribund

Salesforce.com project (located between 16th, I-280, Park 27, and the
future location of Owens) and Block 40 (located at the UCSF station of
the Muni T-line).
The other major project that will play a transformative role on the
waterfront is the San Francisco Giants’ Mission Rock project at Seawall
Lot 337 & Pier 48. This 24-acre site is located just to the south of AT&T
Park in the NE corner of Mission Bay. The current plans call for office
and residential space on the site. As the initial step in this development,
in early 2013 the Giants signed the Anchor Steam Brewing Company,
which has plans to utilize the redeveloped Pier 48 as a 212,000 s.f.
multi-use facility, which they hope to open in 2016.
While these major development projects will continue the city’s growth
to the south, the waterfront further north could also undergo some major
changes in the next few years. At Piers 30-32, the Golden State Warriors
hope to build a 17,500 seat arena together with a mixed-use tower
incorporating a hotel across the street. Finally, further north, the heated
battle over 8 Washington, a 134-unit residential development located
across from Pier 3, will be decided at the ballot box in November.

Contact

Offices

Reed Payne
Executive Vice President, Brokerage
Northern California
415.229.8888 | rpayne@kiddermathews.com

San Francisco
415.229.8888

Silicon Valley
408.970.9400

Bellevue
425.454.7040

Tacoma
253.722.1400

Peninsula
650.769.3600

Seattle
206.296.9600

South Seattle
206.248.7300

Portland
503.221.9900

Designated Broker: Reed Payne | LIC #00818935
This information supplied herein is from sources we deem reliable. It is provided without any representation, warranty or guarantee, expressed or implied as to its accuracy. Prospective Buyer or Tenant should conduct an
independent investigation and verification of all matters deemed to be material, including, but not limited to, statements of income and expenses. CONSULT YOUR ATTORNEY, ACCOUNTANT, OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISOR.

kiddermathews.com

San Francisco Office Real Estate Market Review 3rd Quarter 2013 | 2

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San Francisco Office Market Research 2013

  • 1. Real Estate Market Review NORTHERN CALIFORNIA | San Francisco County 3rd Quarter 2013 San Francisco Office Market Trends Trends Absorption Vacancy Rental Rate New Construction The San Francisco office market continues to attract tenants from across a wide spectrum of industries around the globe. After a slow start, the San Francisco leasing market roared back in the third quarter of the year. This surge in leasing activity coincides with multiple Financial District office buildings that are currently on the block for sale. The technology sector remains the engine driving demand in the office market, but professional service firms are continuing to lease space throughout the city. With major tenants still in the market taking space, we expect high leasing activity to continue through the end of the year. Notable Lease Transactions 1455 Market Street Uber Technologies  88,135 s.f. 500 Terry Francois Cisco  67,335 s.f. 475 Sansome Street A2z Development Center, Inc.  64,317 s.f. 345 Spear Street Google, Inc.  50,218 s.f. Notable Sales Transactions 1600 Owens (acquisition) $55.2M ($225/s.f.) 1098 Harrison  $11.5M ($274/s.f.) 355 Hayes Street  $4.15M ($568/s.f.) 1000 Mariposa Street  $2.96M ($352/s.f.) Market Drivers EMPLOYMENT. San Francisco’s rate of adding jobs has slightly slowed since employment rates were nearly at record highs during April. San Francisco’s unemployment rate has increased from 5.4% in April to 5.9% in July. California’s unemployment rate has also marginally increased from 8.5% in June to 8.7% in July. Despite an increase in both the city and state unemployment rates, the San Francisco unemployment rate remains well below the national average of 7.3%, even while the state’s unemployment rate rests above it. TECH LEASING. After seeing no office lease deals larger than 100,000 s.f. signed in the first half of 2013, there were multiple large deals in the third quarter. The headline deal of the quarter was at Hills Plaza, on the Embarcadero in the Rincon/South Beach submarket, where Google expanded its footprint from 270,00 s.f. to 350,000 s.f. Google had been one of the biggest tenants in the market and its decision allowed Tishman Speyer to sign a 144,000 s.f. deal with Virginia based telecommunications company NeuStar Inc to become the anchor tenant at the new Foundry Square III. This lease at 505 Howard is Neustar’s first significant San Francisco location. The third major tech deal of the quarter was eBay nearly doubling its space in 199 Fremont to 140,000 s.f. MULTIPLE BUILDINGS ON MARKET. In 2012, the city saw $6 billion in office sales, the second highest year on record. After a lull in the first half of 2013, the third quarter has seen multiple buildings hit the market, including 221 Main, 1155 Market, 201 Spear, 888 Brannan, and 655 Montgomery. These offerings will provide opportunities for investors to enter or expand in this dynamic market, as well as opportunities for sellers to capitalize while demand is high. Continued, page 2 San Francisco Office Real Estate Market Review 3rd Quarter 2013 | 1
  • 2. Office Leasing Direct asking rental rates for Class A, B, and C buildings average $51.36, $38.70, and $34.64/s.f., respectively. From the end of the third quarter 2012, Class A rents are up almost 6%, and Class B/C rents up almost 7%. These asking rents reflect the lower end of the scale in the most sought after parts of the city, due to the fact that many landlords are putting desirable spaces onto the market unpriced and allowing the market to determine the ultimate rent paid. Net absorption (the change in occupied space) for San Francisco was a negative 193,767 s.f. in the third quarter. This is the first quarter of negative absorption since second quarter 2010. This is mostly due to the South Financial District having the largest deficit of all the submarkets, with a net absorption rate of negative 215,970 s.f. 101 Spear alone was responsible for 186,718 s.f. of the negative net absorption. This negative absorption is a direct result of the leasing slowdown that occurred during early 2013, but the heightened leasing activity of the third quarter portends well for future positive absorption. The high-water mark for the third quarter was the lease signed by Lyft Inc. at 185 Clara on the first floor. The lease rate was $50/s.f. Investment Many San Francisco offices have recently hit the sales block, yet San Francisco office market transaction volume slowed dramatically in the third quarter. Only three properties closed, for a combined total of $13.3 million. 333 Bush is pending closure, but even with this transaction the combined total square feet transacted in the 2013 third quarter is one million less than the previous quarter. Since there were so few transactions this quarter it is difficult to make accurate assumptions of future market strength. We anticipate that the 2013’s total transaction volume will finish between $2-2.5 billion, well below last year’s total of $6 billion. Moreover, year to date volume is only $863 million, which is down 77% from 2012. Institutions have been the main buyers, accounting for 68% of the capital in all San Francisco office purchases. This percentage is much higher than usual; it was only 35% in 2012. The national percentage of office buildings purchased by institutions has been 56% in 2013. The most expensive office building sold this quarter was 1098 Harrison, a 42,039 s.f. office building built in 1924 and renovated in 2011. The building, located in the South of Market submarket, was sold for approximately $11.5 million ($274/s.f.). to Gaw Captial. Kaiser Permanente acquired the 1600 Owens development site for $55.2 million and plan to construct a 264,000 s.f. office building. *Figures and information for this report look only at office buildings larger than 5,000 square feet and were obtained using 9/19/2013 as the cutoff date for the 3rd Quarter. Source: CoStar Data SPOTLIGHT: San Francisco’s Transforming Waterfront The San Francisco waterfront, which was opened up with the demolition of the Embarcadero Freeway after the 1989 Loma Prieta earthquake, has become a destination for tourists and residents and continues to see major redevelopment projects that stretch from the North Waterfront south to Pier 70. The waterfront has been experiencing major changes since the late 1990’s when AT&T Park was built, the Ferry Building was renovated, and Mission Bay was becoming a destination for UCSF, bio-medical companies, and tech companies. At the southern end of the waterfront, the project at Pier 70 is potentially the largest of these developments. Owned by the Port, two development projects are underway. Orton Development was selected to rehabilitate six historic buildings (totaling some 225,854 s.f.) on the Pier, with construction slated to commence in 2014. A major development will be undertaken by Forest City with plans calling for 1,000 units of housing as well as 2.5 million square feet of office space. Kaiser Permanente’s decision to locate within Mission Bay has resulted in there being only two remaining development sites: the moribund Salesforce.com project (located between 16th, I-280, Park 27, and the future location of Owens) and Block 40 (located at the UCSF station of the Muni T-line). The other major project that will play a transformative role on the waterfront is the San Francisco Giants’ Mission Rock project at Seawall Lot 337 & Pier 48. This 24-acre site is located just to the south of AT&T Park in the NE corner of Mission Bay. The current plans call for office and residential space on the site. As the initial step in this development, in early 2013 the Giants signed the Anchor Steam Brewing Company, which has plans to utilize the redeveloped Pier 48 as a 212,000 s.f. multi-use facility, which they hope to open in 2016. While these major development projects will continue the city’s growth to the south, the waterfront further north could also undergo some major changes in the next few years. At Piers 30-32, the Golden State Warriors hope to build a 17,500 seat arena together with a mixed-use tower incorporating a hotel across the street. Finally, further north, the heated battle over 8 Washington, a 134-unit residential development located across from Pier 3, will be decided at the ballot box in November. Contact Offices Reed Payne Executive Vice President, Brokerage Northern California 415.229.8888 | rpayne@kiddermathews.com San Francisco 415.229.8888 Silicon Valley 408.970.9400 Bellevue 425.454.7040 Tacoma 253.722.1400 Peninsula 650.769.3600 Seattle 206.296.9600 South Seattle 206.248.7300 Portland 503.221.9900 Designated Broker: Reed Payne | LIC #00818935 This information supplied herein is from sources we deem reliable. It is provided without any representation, warranty or guarantee, expressed or implied as to its accuracy. Prospective Buyer or Tenant should conduct an independent investigation and verification of all matters deemed to be material, including, but not limited to, statements of income and expenses. CONSULT YOUR ATTORNEY, ACCOUNTANT, OR OTHER PROFESSIONAL ADVISOR. kiddermathews.com San Francisco Office Real Estate Market Review 3rd Quarter 2013 | 2