Whether you're asked to do old-school waterfall project plans or any one of a million flavors of agile, forecasting practices can be cumbersome. Worse, they're often unreliable, and can damage trust between your team and your stakeholders. There is a better way! In this presentation, we'll walk through a real case study from a real massive-scale enterprise and show how a team of software developers used real math and simple tools to do more accurate forecasting in less time. We'll go through the taxonomy of common team metrics and show you which data drives the best decisions. Send that deck of cards back to game night where it belongs, and start measuring your team with math instead!