1. The Distressed Debt Conference 2011 The Coming Wave of Debt Maturities in the Commercial Real Estate MarketWill there be adequate capital to refinance the wave of maturities? This panel will examine whether banks, life insurance companies, CMBS lenders, private lenders or hedge funds will be the main players for refinancing. What does this wave of debt maturities mean for the future of commercial real estate lending?MODERATOR: BRAD SALZER, Southeast Mortgage InvestmentsPANELISTS: RON D'VARI, New Oak Capital JAY KELLEY, Focus Management Group CAROLYN PIANIN, The Carlton Group
2. Commercial Real Estate Debt MaturitiesAnnual Maturities by Lender Type $ Billions Sources: Federal Reserve, Trepp LLC
3. COMMERCIAL REAL ESTATE: Will there be adequate capital to refinance the wave of maturities? Other 14.7% Life Cos. 4.7% CMBS 16.4% Banks 64.2% Breakdown of Debt Coming Due in the Next 5 Years Sources: Foresight Analytics, SNL, Intex, Trepp, Morgan Stanley
5. Commercial Real Estate Bear Markets Major Value Decline – Prospect is a Long Recovery Sources: Trepp LLC, Moody’s, NCREIF, Bureau of Economic Analysis
6. Underwater MortgagesMaturing in 2011 to 2015 by Severity of Value Shortfall Estimated at $1.7 trillion Maturities, 2011 to 2015 0 to 5% 5 to 10% 10 to 20% > 20% Source: Trepp LLC
7. The “HAVE’S” and the “HAVE-NOT’S” “Have’s” appear to be the “Best of Class,” institutionally-traded, trophy assets acquired at low cap rates in cities like New York, Washington D.C., Boston and San Francisco while the “Have-Nots” represent all other markets….the secondary and tertiary where values remain depressed an average of -45% from the height of the market in 2007.
