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Presentation to Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce's Government Relations Committee (9.27.2022).pdf

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Presentation to Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce's Government Relations Committee (9.27.2022).pdf

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Our September 27, 2022, presentation to the Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce's Govt Relations Comm on Alaska's current fiscal situation and our views on the positions of the candidates for Alaska Governor in response.

Our September 27, 2022, presentation to the Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce's Govt Relations Comm on Alaska's current fiscal situation and our views on the positions of the candidates for Alaska Governor in response.

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Presentation to Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce's Government Relations Committee (9.27.2022).pdf

  1. 1. Presentation to Greater Fairbanks Chamber of Commerce's Government Relations Committee Brad Keithley Managing Director, Alaskans for Sustainable Budgets September 27, 2022
  2. 2. The current oil price outlook is softening … 2
  3. 3. That translates into budget challenges … 3
  4. 4. The campaign solutions: Dunleavy (POMV 50/50 + …) 4
  5. 5. The campaign solutions: Gara (oil taxes + …) 5
  6. 6. The campaign solutions: Walker (PFD cuts …) 6
  7. 7. Similarities & Differences ● All rely to some degree on PFD cuts (Hammond: “head taxes” on middle & lower income Alaska families) ○ Dunleavy: POMV 50/50 ○ Gara: PFD of “$2200 and growing” (about POMV 40/60) ○ Walker: POMV 25/75 ● Interestingly, all also avoid revenue contributions from the Top20% ○ Dunleavy: “No taxes” ○ Gara: "I don't think we need an income tax. We need a fair share for our oil." ○ Walker: No mention on website or stump speech, vague reference to “broad based taxes” in Alaska Chamber forum ● Differences ○ Additional spending 7
  8. 8. Our assessment … ● Dunleavy & Gara’s plans are unrealistic ○ Dunleavy: Relies too heavily on spending restraint (failed: 2019) ○ Gara: Relies too heavily on oil tax increases (failed: 2020) ● Both likely lead to con’t gridlock & PFD cuts ● Walker’s is inequitable & economically harmful ○ Leona Helmsley: “Only the little people pay taxes” 8
  9. 9. Somewhat surprised/disappointed … Virtually no candidates are proposing the “all of the above” approach advanced by the Legislature’s 2021 Fiscal Policy Working Group: ● Some PFD cuts (POMV 50/50) ● Some spending restraint ● Some oil tax adjustments ● Some broad based (individual) taxes To us, it provides the best alternative for avoiding continued gridlock 9

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