1. IBC-Br: Recovery gains traction
September 14, 2012
BCB’s economic activity index (GDP proxy known as IBC-Br) expanded 0.42% in July in monthly
seasonally adjusted terms (s.a.) above median market forecasts (0.3%) but below our
estimate (0.5%), reviewed upward after positive surprise in retail sales. In annual terms the
increase came from 1.0% to 2.3%. Been so, the indicator remained in the positive range - with
robust monthly expansions since June – and helps consolidate expectances of (higher) activity
acceleration over 3Q12.
Sources: BCB, Pine Research
In fact, as we can observe below in the exercise of statistical carry the recent highs together
with the weak base seen in 2Q12 already guarantee s.a. quarterly growth of 0.8% in 3Q12
considering no growth in August and September. In addition, the table below exhibits the
results for 3Q12 IBC-Br, 4Q12 carry and resulting 2012 growth from several August and
September variations (assuming zero increment in the last three months of the year).
One can conclude, together with recent strength of some high-frequency indicators (which
suggest an industrial production up 1.5% and retail sales up 1.0% in August), that it shouldn’t
be difficult IBC-Br to grow close to 1.5% in 3Q12, fact which imposes a positive bias to our
forecast of real growth of 1.1% of GDP in that quarter and 1.4% in 2012.
Sources: BCB, Pine Research
Marco Antonio Maciel Marco Antonio Caruso
Chief economist Economist
Banco Pine Banco Pine
1

2. Disclaimer
This report has been prepared by PINE Research Macro/Commodities, a research department of Banco Pine S.A. PINE Securities USA
LLC (“PINE”), a broker-dealer registered with the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and a member of the Financial Industry
Regulatory Authority and the Securities Investor Protection Corporation, is distributing this report in the United States. PINE assumes
responsibility for this research for purposes of U.S. law. Any U.S. person receiving this report and wishing to effect any transaction in
a security discussed in this report should do so with PINE at +1-646-398-6900, 645 Madison Avenue, New York, NY 10022.
Banco Pine refers to PINE, as well as Banco Pine S.A. and PINE Investimentos.
This report is for distribution only under such circumstances as may be permitted by applicable law. This report is not directed at you
if PINE is prohibited or restricted by any legislation or regulation in any jurisdiction from making it available to you. You should
satisfy yourself before reading it that PINE is permitted to provide research material concerning investments to you under relevant
legislation and regulations.
Nothing in this report constitutes a representation that any investment strategy or recommendation contained herein is suitable or
appropriate to a recipient’s individual circumstances or otherwise constitutes a personal recommendation. It is published solely for
information purposes, it does not constitute an advertisement and is not to be construed as a solicitation, offer, invitation or
inducement to buy or sell any securities or related financial instruments in any jurisdiction. Prices in this report are believed to be
reliable as of the date on which this report was issued and are derived from one or more of the following: (i) sources as expressly
specified alongside the relevant data; (ii) the quoted price on the main regulated market for the security in question; (iii) other public
sources believed to be reliable; or (iv) PINE's proprietary data or data available to Banco Pine. All other information herein is
believed to be reliable as of the date on which this report was issued and has been obtained from public sources believed to be
reliable. No representation or warranty, either express or implied, is provided in relation to the accuracy, completeness or reliability
of the information contained herein, except with respect to information concerning PINE, its subsidiaries and affiliates, nor is it
intended to be a complete statement or summary of the securities, markets or developments referred to in the report. In all cases,
investors should conduct their own investigation and analysis of such information before taking or omitting to take any action in
relation to securities or markets that are analyzed in this report.
Pine Research issues its views pursuant to relevant factors necessary to recommend an investment decision and independently of any
instructions that Banco Pine might have from any covered company with which it has a business relationship.
Banco Pine does not undertake that investors will obtain profits, nor will it share with investors any investment profits nor accept any
liability for any investment losses. Investments involve risks and investors should exercise prudence in making their investment
decisions. Banco Pine accepts no fiduciary duties to recipients of this report and in communicating this report is not acting in a
fiduciary capacity. The report should not be regarded by recipients as a substitute for the exercise of their own judgment. Opinions,
estimates, and projections expressed herein constitute the current judgment of the analyst responsible for the substance of this
report as of the date in which was issued and are therefore subject to change without notice and may differ or be contrary to opinions
expressed by other business areas or groups of Banco Pine as a result of using different assumptions and criteria. Any such opinions,
estimates, and projections must not be construed as a representation that the matters referred to therein will occur. Prices and
availability of financial instruments are indicative only and subject to change without notice.
Research will initiate, update and cease coverage solely at the discretion of Pine Research. The analysis contained herein is based on
numerous assumptions. Different assumptions could result in materially different results. The analyst(s) responsible for the
preparation of this report may interact with trading desk personnel, sales personnel and other constituencies for the purpose of
gathering, synthesizing and interpreting market information. Banco Pine is under no obligation to update or keep current the
information contained herein, except when terminating coverage of the companies discussed in the report. Banco Pine relies on
information barriers to control the flow of information contained in one or more areas within Banco Pine, into other areas, units,
groups or affiliates of Banco Pine. The compensation of the analyst who prepared this report is determined by research management
and senior management (not including investment banking). Analyst compensation is not based on investment banking revenues,
however, compensation may relate to the revenues of Banco Pine as a whole, of which investment banking, sales and trading are a
part.
The securities described herein may not be eligible for sale in all jurisdictions or to certain categories of investors. Options, derivative
products and futures are not suitable for all investors, and trading in these instruments is considered risky. Mortgage and asset-backed
securities may involve a high degree of risk and may be highly volatile in response to fluctuations in interest rates and other market
conditions. Past performance is not necessarily indicative of future results. If a financial instrument is denominated in a currency
other than an investor’s currency, a change in rates of exchange may adversely affect the value or price of or the income derived
from any security or related instrument mentioned in this report, and the reader of this report assumes any currency risk.
This report does not take into account the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any particular investor.
Investors should obtain independent financial advice based on their own particular circumstances before making an investment
decision on the basis of the information contained herein. For investment advice, trade execution or other enquiries, clients should
contact their local sales representative. Neither Banco Pine nor any of its affiliates, nor any of their respective directors, employees
or agents, accepts any liability for any loss or damage arising out of the use of all or any part of this report.
Any prices stated in this report are for information purposes only and do not represent valuations for individual securities or other
instruments. There is no representation that any transaction can or could have been effected at those prices and any prices do not
necessarily reflect Banco Pine’s internal books and records or theoretical model-based valuations and may be based on certain
assumptions. Different assumptions, by Banco Pine or any other source, may yield substantially different results.
This report may not be reproduced or redistributed to any other person, in whole or in part, for any purpose, without the prior
written consent of Banco Pine, and Banco Pine accepts no liability whatsoever for the actions of third parties in this respect.
Additional information relating to the financial instruments discussed in this report is available upon request.
2