3. FORESIGHT 201507
2014 Highlights
Small countries like Singapore cannot change the world but the more we understand global trends and
emerging challenges, the better we will be able to adapt to benefit from these trends and tackle these
challenges.
The mission of the Centre for Strategic Futures (CSF) is to position the Singapore Government to
navigate emerging strategic challenges and harness potential opportunities. We experiment with and
apply a range of foresight tools to research and analyse issues of strategic importance to Singapore.
With our findings, we seek to prompt decision-makers and policy-makers in the Singapore
Government to think differently about how the future may unfold. Through our various platforms, we
seek to develop a collective instinct and capacity for strategic thinking across the government. This
article provides a summary of CSF’s work in 2014, some of which have been featured in this publication.
Rahul Daswani
Figure 1: The Centre for Strategic Futures’ Scenario Planning Plus Toolkit
Monitoring Environmental Scanning
Designing Strategies Sense-Making
Wind Tunneling
War-Gaming
Back Casting
Emerging Issues Analysis
Driving Force Analysis
SWOT
Systems Thinking
Defining Focus
Developing Possible Futures
Causal Layered Analysis
Morphological Analysis
Scenario Narratives
Signposting
Early Warning System
Delphi Method
Horizon Scanning
Goals Ranking Diagram
Cynefin Problem Definition
Research and Analysis
SP+
Toolkit

4. FORESIGHT 2015 08
We apply different tools from our Scenario Planning Plus (SP+) toolkit at various stages of our
foresight process, from defining the issue we are trying to address, to sense-making, to exploring the
range of plausible futures and the strategies we might employ to thrive in different scenarios. We often
use a combination of tools in our projects.
Our project on Trust was a good illustration of how we explored the dynamics of public trust in
government through the use of a realistic operating environment that takes into account the nuances of
the trust relationship between the public and government. In terms of strategy design, we experimented
with using gaming to help public officers grapple with the abstract concept of public trust and how the
choices they make in their daily work can impact and shape public trust. We discuss this Trust project
in more detail from pages 37 to 44. We believe that foresight work needs to go beyond theoretical
frameworks and should help organisations develop the instincts and reflexes to deal with change.
Formats like games and facilitated conversations can be helpful in this respect, and the conversation
toolkit we developed on the evolving role of the state, described from pages 65 to 72, is another example
of our efforts in this area.
Some of the projects we worked on in 2014 were offshoots of earlier projects. In 2012, CSF undertook
the Emerging Strategic Issues (ESI) 2.0 project, which identified and prioritised emerging risks and
priorities for the Singapore Government. Through the exercise, we shortlisted 48 issues that agencies
collectively assessed would have a significant impact on Singapore, but that the government was not
prepared for. In 2014, we conducted “deep dives” into a few of these issues in partnership with other
ministries, to discuss the specific policy challenges posed and how the government might address these
challenges. One of the “deep dives” was into the impact of automation on jobs and workers. Together
with the Ministry of Manpower, we jointly studied how the confluence of advances in technologies such
as robotics, artificial intelligence and big data analytics could impact different job types. The findings for
this study can be found from pages 21 to 28. We also explored the future of citizenship, investigating
the emerging challenges and implications for policy-makers. The key issues and questions that arose are
discussed from pages 29 to 36.
Engagements and Connections
CSF actively seeks out fresh perspectives from thinkers outside the Singapore Government, and has
sought to grow and deepen our networks in the past year. We are grateful for the privilege of exchanging
perspectives with more than 150 thought leaders locally and abroad annually. These exchanges have not
only given us fresh insights into various issues, but have also helped us to develop our thinking and
practice in futures methodology and content.
In 2014, we had the opportunity to meet with a number of experts during their trips to Singapore, and
engaged them on topics spanning complexity, governance, social dynamics, geopolitics, technology, and
economics. Some key highlights for us were the discussions we had with Catherine Fieschi, Director of
UK think tank Counterpoint, on the anxieties of the middle classes in advanced economies. We also
had several engaging sessions with Paul Light, the Paulette Goddard Professor of Public Service
at NYU Wagner and author of A Government Ill Executed: The Decline of the Federal Service and How
to Reverse It (2008), on shared insights on the causes of government failure, and strategies to avoid “a

5. FORESIGHT 201509
Figure 2: CSF engages with a variety of thought leaders
To connect with our foresight counterparts in other governments and with organisations engaged in
innovative research and thinking, we made trips in 2014 to the US, the UK and China. Members of the
CSF team were also invited to speak on strategic foresight in the Singapore Government at the 5th
International Conference on Foresight organised by the Japan National Institute of Science and
Technology Policy (NISTEP) and the School of International Futures (SOIF) – Hawaii Research
Centre for Futures Studies’ (HRCFS) Asia-Pacific@Hawaii Spring Retreat. At the World Economic
Forum (WEF)’s invitation, CSF joined its Global Strategic Foresight Community as a founding
member, participating in its inaugural meeting in New York. These platforms provided a valuable
opportunity to exchange ideas with senior futures practitioners from leading public, private and civil
society organisations, and thought leaders in various fields.
Distinguished Visitor Programme and Distinguished International
Fellows
In 2014, CSF introduced two new programmes. The Distinguished Visitor Programme facilitates more
in-depth engagements with top thinkers and experts while the Distinguished International Fellows
programme recognises experts who are long-standing contributors to the Singapore foresight
community.
Our first two Distinguished Visitors were risk experts Nassim Nicholas Taleb, author of The Black
Swan and Antifragile, and Richard Bookstaber, author of A Demon of Our Own Design. During their visits,
we had rich discussions on how systems could be made more “anti-fragile” by subjecting them to
stressors and how we might better manage the impact of cascading shocks in systems where risks were
tightly coupled.
sclerotic impulse” in the public service. We also met Professor Scott Page, Director of the Centre for
the Study of Complex Systems at the University of Michigan, on the value of cognitive diversity in a
complex environment, and the importance of organisations discerning when to value diversity and when
to value homogeneity.

6. FORESIGHT 2015 10
In recognition of their long-standing relationship with CSF and their contributions to the broader
futures community in the Singapore Government, CSF appointed Peter Schwartz, an eminent futurist
and currently Senior Vice President for Global Government Relations and Strategic Planning for
Salesforce.com, and Richard O’Neill, President of The Highlands Group, as our Distinguished
International Fellows in 2014.
Capability Building
Developing the Public Service’s capacity to think about and prepare for the future continues to be a key
part of CSF’s role.
We convene a range of platforms that bring together policy-makers and futurists to explore and discuss
emerging issues and their implications. Chaired by our Head of Civil Service, the Strategic Futures
Network brings together senior decision-makers from all the ministries and major statutory boards. At
the working level, CSF convenes a bi-monthly platform we call Sandbox where futurists across the
Singapore Government meet to exchange ideas and updates on ongoing projects. CSF also convenes
FutureChats between visiting experts, futurists and policy-makers in the Singapore Government. Our
Senior Advisor, Mr Peter Ho, chairs Futures Conversations, a discussion with futurists and
policy-makers on emerging issues and their strategic implications.
CSF runs a series of courses dubbed “FutureCraft” at the Civil Service College which teaches some 150
public servants how they might use foresight tools in their policy research and formulation. Besides
sharing the usage of the SP+ tools, FutureCraft serves as a platform for foresight practitioners within
the Singapore Government to exchange their experiences on the successes, challenges and best practices
for foresight.