1. Market Advisory Services
Metro Stories Witten Advisors
Market-Smart Investment Decisions
Local job growth (revised): All hiring; some rapidly
Employment Growth Employment Growth Rate
12 Months ending December 2012 12 Months ending December 2012
1. New York 115.7k 1. Salt Lake City +4.4%
2. Houston 105.7k 2. San Francisco +4.1%
3. Los Angeles 80.3k 3. Houston +4.0%
4. Dallas 77.6k 4. Nashville +3.9%
5. Atlanta 54.6k 5. Austin +3.9%
6. Dallas +3.7%
39. Kansas City +10.4k 7. Fort Worth +3.6%
40. Portland +9.9k 8. San Jose +3.4%
41. West Palm Beach +6.2k 9. Charlotte +3.2%
42. St. Louis +4.3k 10. Jacksonville +2.9%
43. Cincinnati +4.0k U.S. +1.7%
Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics
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Market insights for apartment owners, Crittenden Multifamily Conference Copyright 2013, Witten Advisors LLC
developers, investors and lenders March 19, 2013 Dallas, Texas
2. Market Advisory Services
Metro Stories Witten Advisors
Market-Smart Investment Decisions
Net leasing generally improved across markets in 4Q
Absorption Rate* Leaders Absorption Rate* Laggards
12 Months ending 4Q 2012 12 Months ending 4Q 2012
1. Houston 2.7% 34. Indianapolis 0.3%
2. San Antonio 2.3% 35. Minneapolis 0.3%
3. Salt Lake City 2.2% 36. Boston 0.3%
4. Austin 2.1% 37. New York City 0.2%
5. Fort Worth 1.7% 38. Sacramento 0.1%
6. Orlando 1.7% 39. Chicago 0.1%
7. Dallas 1.7% 40. Fort Lauderdale 0.0 %
8. Seattle 1.6% 41. San Francisco 0.0%
9. Jacksonville 1.5% 42. Baltimore 0.0%
10. Charlotte 1.5% 43. Detroit -0.4%
U.S. +0.7%
*year-year % change in occupied apartments Source: Witten Advisors
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Market insights for apartment owners, Crittenden Multifamily Conference Copyright 2013, Witten Advisors LLC
developers, investors and lenders March 19, 2013 Dallas, Texas
3. 1.0%
0.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
7.0%
Austin Au
stin
Raleigh Ra
l eig
Charlotte Ch h
ar l
Jacksonville Jac
ks o
ott
e
Denver De nvi
ll e
n
West Palm Beach We ver
st
developers, investors and lenders
Dallas Da Pa lm
l Be
Houston Ho las ach
Market insights for apartment owners,
us t
Metro Stories
Seattle Sea on
t
Nashville Na tle
sh
San Jose San vil le
Jo s
Orlando Or e
lan
Tampa Ta do
Market Advisory Services
mp
Washington DC Wa a
sh i
Columbus Co ngt
lu o
San Antonio San mbu n DC
An s
Fort Worth Fo t
rt W onio
San Francisco ort
h
Minneapolis
*Starts rate = last 12 months’ starts as % of existing apartment stock
Norfolk
Fort Lauderdale
Portland
March 19, 2013
Salt Lake City
Metro Starts Rate
Orange County
Atlanta
Miami
Baltimore
Crittenden Multifamily Conference
Phoenix
U.S.
Boston
indicates 4Q starts rate at least 0.5% higher than expected
KansasCity
San Diego
St. Louis
Oakland
LosAngeles
Riverside
Philadelphia
New York City
Indianapolis
4Q apartment starts rate* high in many metros,
LasVegas
Chicago
but only 3 markets above Witten Advisors forecast
Cincinnati
Source: Witten Advisors
Sacramento
Detroit
Copyright 2013, Witten Advisors LLC
Dallas, Texas
13
Market-Smart Investment Decisions
Witten Advisors
4. Market Advisory Services
Market Outlook Witten Advisors
Market-Smart Investment Decisions
Conclusion: Apartment Report Card still stellar…
…but expect more market differentiation
Subject Grade 2013 Effective Street Rent Growth
1 Oakland 9.6%
Demand A 2 San Francisco 7.3%
Supply B- 3 San Jose 6.6%
4 Miami 4.9%
Rents A- 5 Seattle 4.8%
Values A- 6 Salt Lake City 4.7%
7 Orlando 4.4%
Overall A- 8 Detroit 4.4%
9 Denver 4.2%
10 W Palm Beach 4.2%
Source: Witten Advisors
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Market insights for apartment owners, Crittenden Multifamily Conference Copyright 2013, Witten Advisors LLC
developers, investors and lenders March 19, 2013 Dallas, Texas