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THE EFFECT OF FLUCTUATING FOREIGN EXCHANGE
RATE ON YEMENI CURRENCY
ABDALRHMAN NAGEIB MOHAMMED ALI AL-AWDI
FACULTY OF BUSINESS AND FINANCE
INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY
TWINTECH
2018
ii
THE EFFECT OF FLUCTUATING FOREIGN EXCHANGE
RATE ON YEMENI CURRENCY
By
ABDALRHMAN NAGEIB MOHAMMED ALI AL-AWDI
Bachelor’s Project Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the
Requirements for the Degree of Bachelor of Business
Administration in International Business
Faculty of Business and Finance
International University of Technology Twintech
2018
iii
DECLARATION
Name : ABDALRHMAN NAGEIB MOHAMMED ALI AL-AWDI
Matric. Number : 12531
I hereby declare that this Bachelor’s Project is the result of my own work, except for
quotations and summaries, which have been duly acknowledged.
Signature: _________________________ Date: ______________________
iv
ABSTRACT
Exchange rates play an increasingly significant role in any economy. This study
investigated the relationships between fluctuating foreign exchange rate and Yemeni
currency. The study made use of a survey questionnaire distributed to 180 Yemeni bank
employees, 148 usable questionnaires were returned. After which data was analyzed by
Used SPSS to conducted the regression and correlation analysis. The study findings
showed that the fluctuating foreign exchange rate was correlated with Yemeni currency
Moreover, The Fluctuating foreign exchange rate has a significant effect on Yemeni
currency. Certain suggestion and implications of the study were also discussed.
v
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS
First of all, I present my thanks to Allah. Second, I would like to thank and from the
bottom of my heart, Dr. Kamal Tamim for all the support and assistance he rendered me
during the whole process of doing my Bachelor’s research. Finally, I would like to
thank Dr. Osama Maarouf who taught us Research Methodology, my family members
for believing in my ability to finish this academic project.
vi
TABLE OF CONTENTS
DECLARATION.............................................................................................................iii
ABSTRACT.....................................................................................................................iv
ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................ v
TABLE OF CONTENTS.................................................................................................vi
LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... x
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS..........................................................................................xi
CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION........................................................................... 1
1.1 Introduction.............................................................................................................. 1
1.2 Problem Statement................................................................................................... 3
1.3 Research Questions.................................................................................................. 3
1.4 Research Objectives................................................................................................. 3
1.5 Research Contribution ............................................................................................. 3
1.6 Limitations Of The Study ........................................................................................ 4
1.7 Definition Of Terms................................................................................................. 4
1.8 Research Organizing................................................................................................ 4
CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW AND HYPOTHESES
DEVELOPMENT ........................................................................................................... 6
2.1 Introduction.............................................................................................................. 6
2.2 Currency................................................................................................................... 6
2.2.1 THE IMPORTANCE OF LOCAL CURRENCY ........................................................... 7
2.2.2 THE BENEFITS OF LOCAL CURRENCY................................................................. 7
2.2.3 PREVIOUS STUDIES ON CURRENCY..................................................................... 8
2.3 Fluctuating Foreign Exchange Rate......................................................................... 8
2.3.1 IMPORTANCE OF THE EXCHANGE RATE ............................................................. 9
2.3.2 ADVANTAGES OF EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEMS .................................................. 10
2.3.3 MAIN CAUSES THAT AFFECT FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES ............................... 10
2.3.4 EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES............................................................................... 11
2.3.5 PREVIOUS STUDIES ON FLUCTUATING FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE................... 13
2.4 Previous Studies On The Relationship Between Fluctuating Foreign Exchange
Rate And Currency: ........................................................................................................ 13
2.5 Research Framework ............................................................................................. 14
2.6 Hypotheses Development ...................................................................................... 14
2.7 Summary............................................................................................................... 15
CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ........................................... 16
3.1 Introduction............................................................................................................ 16
3.2 Research Design .................................................................................................... 16
vii
3.2.1 RESEARCH APPROACH ...................................................................................... 17
3.2.2 PURPOSE OF THE STUDY .................................................................................. 18
3.2.3 TYPE OF INVESTIGATION .................................................................................. 18
3.2.4 EXTENT OF RESEARCHER INTERFERENCE......................................................... 19
3.2.5 STUDY SETTING ................................................................................................ 19
3.3 Population And Sampling...................................................................................... 19
3.3.1 POPULATION ..................................................................................................... 20
3.3.2 SAMPLE SIZE..................................................................................................... 20
3.4 Instrumentation ...................................................................................................... 20
3.4.1 YEMENI CURRENCY MEASUREMENT ................................................................ 22
3.4.2 FLUCTUATING FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE MEASUREMENT .............................. 22
3.5 Data Collection ...................................................................................................... 23
3.5.1 INSTRUMENTATION TRANSLATION.................................................................... 24
3.5.2 ADMINISTRATION OF QUESTIONNAIRE ............................................................. 24
3.6 Scale Reliability..................................................................................................... 25
3.7 Data Analysis......................................................................................................... 25
3.8 Summary................................................................................................................ 26
CHAPTER FOUR: DATA ANALYSIS...................................................................... 27
4.1 Introduction............................................................................................................ 27
4.2 Data Screening....................................................................................................... 27
4.3 Sample Profile........................................................................................................ 28
4.3.1 GENDER............................................................................................................. 28
4.3.2 AGE ................................................................................................................... 29
4.3.3 EDUCATION ....................................................................................................... 30
4.3.4 POSITION ........................................................................................................... 31
4.3.5 EXPERIENCE....................................................................................................... 32
4.4 Descriptive Statistics.............................................................................................. 33
4.4.1 FLUCTUATING FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE ......................................................... 34
4.4.1 YEMENI CURRENCY............................................................................................ 35
4.5 Correlation Analysis .............................................................................................. 36
4.6 Regression Analysis............................................................................................... 36
4.7 Hypotheses Testing.................................................................................................. 37
4.8 Summary................................................................................................................ 38
CHAPTER FIVE: DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION.......................................... 39
5.1 Introduction............................................................................................................ 39
5.2 Discussion.............................................................................................................. 39
5.3 Recommendations.................................................................................................. 40
5.3.1 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR GOVERNMENT.......................................................... 40
5.3.2 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR PRIVATE SECTOR (BANKS)....................................... 40
viii
5.4 Future Research ..................................................................................................... 40
5.5 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 41
REFERENCES.............................................................................................................. 42
APPENDIX.................................................................................................................... 45
APPENDIX A: ENGLISH VERSION OF QUESTIONNAIRE .............................................. 45
APPENDIX B: ARABIC VERSION OF QUESTIONNAIRE .................................................. 4
ix
LIST OF TABLES
Table No. Page
Table 3.1: Key differences between qualitative and quantitative research. 17
Table 3.2: The Targeted Banks 20
Table 3.3 Five Likert Scale 21
Table 3.4: Yemeni Currency Measurement 22
Table 3.5: Fluctuating Foreign Exchange Rate Measurement 22
Table 3.6: Reliability Statistics 25
Table 4.1 Frequency Analysis of Gender 28
Table 4.2: Age Frequency Analysis 29
Table 4.3: Education Frequency Analysis 30
Table 4.4: Position Frequency Analysis 31
Table 4.5: Experience Frequency Analysis 32
Table 4.6: Verbal evaluation 33
Table 4.7: fluctuating foreign exchange rate Descriptive Statistics 34
Table 4.8: Yemeni currency Descriptive Statistics 35
Table 4.9: Correlation Analysis 36
Table 4.10:Model Summary 37
Table 4.11:Coefficientsa 37
Table 4. 12 Summary of Hypotheses Testing Results 37
x
LIST OF FIGURES
Figure No. Page
Figure 2.1 Theoretical framework 14
Figure 4.1:Gender Frequency Analysis 28
Figure 4.2: Age Frequency Analysis 29
Figure 4.3: Education Frequency Analysis 30
Figure 4.4: Position Frequency Analysis 31
Figure 4.5: Experience Frequency Analysis 32
xi
LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS
SPSS Statistical Package for the Social Sciences
CBY Central Bank of Yemen
GDP Gross Domestic Product
IMF International Monetary Fund
1
CHAPTER ONE
INTRODUCTION
1.1 Introduction
The value of the currency of each country can be managed using different mechanisms.
These mechanisms narrow down to the exchange rate regime which applies to the
currency. The currency of a given country can either be said to be free floating, fixed or
a hybrid. A free floating currency operates in a laissez faire kind of a market. Here, the
currency is left to respond to the market forces. It is allowed to fluctuate against other
currencies in response to the demand and supply forces. However, there are instances
where the central banks have to intervene in order to regulate the appreciation and
depreciation of the currencies. In such a case, these systems are called managed float
and they are different to the system where no intervention is done at all. In cases where
there is no intervention, it is called free float (Tauline, 2008).
In Yemen, The Yemeni riyal is the national currency of the Republic of Yemen. After
the revolution of 26 September 1962, the Ministry of Treasury issued the Republican
riyal, the first national currency in late 1963.
In the south, after the revolution of October 14, 1963, the South Arabian Currency
Authority was founded, Which put the Yemeni dinar to trade in April 1965 as the first
national currency for the south of the country.
The dinar and the riyal continued to trade together until 1996, when the dinar was
withdrawn from circulation in March 1996. Since June 11, 1996, the riyal has become
the only currency of Yemen (Bashiri, 2013).
Exchange rate fluctuation is the change in value of one currency against another
currency due to various economic factors. In simple sense, the value of one currency
will be appreciated against another if the demand for that particular currency is higher
(John Pradeep & Rajeesh Kunnampuram, 2002).
2
Changes in exchange rate have pervasive effects, with consequences for prices, wages,
interest rates, production levels, and employment opportunities (Rogoff, 2009).
The exchange rate can be affected by any political or economic disturbance and It is a
reflection of the financial health of a country or region, some reasons is responsible for
fluctuating in exchange rate for instance Inflation rates, interest rates, country’s balance
of payments, government debt, political stability & performance, recession, and
speculation ,all of these factors determine the foreign exchange rate fluctuations
(compareremit, 2014).
In Yemen, The exchange rate of the Yemeni Riyal against the US Dollar witnessed
significantly high changes during the recent period. Economic pressures stemming from
the three-year-old war and regional military intervention in Yemen have taken their toll
on the value of the country’s currency. Between early 2015 and 2017.
Amongst the factors weighing on the riyal have been widespread collapse of economic
activity, government services, security and humanitarian conditions, the cessation of oil
exports (previously the largest source of foreign currency and government revenue) and
the Central Bank of Yemen’s (CBY) decreasing ability to intervene in the market, given
its depleted foreign currency holdings. The CBY has also been experiencing a severe
riyal liquidity crisis (Nasser, 2017).
Aside from factors such as interest rates and inflation, the exchange rate is one of the
most important determinants of a country's relative level of economic health. Exchange
rates play a vital role in a country's level of trade.
We should sketch out how exchange rate movements affect a nation's trading
relationships with other nations. A higher currency makes a country's exports more
expensive and imports cheaper in foreign markets. A lower currency makes a country's
exports cheaper and its imports more expensive in foreign markets. A higher exchange
rate can be expected to lower the country's balance of trade, while a lower exchange rate
would increase it (Bergen, 2017).
3
1.2 Problem Statement
The study is representing the Yemeni riyals exchange rate against the dollar is facing in
these days huge problems in the current situations this leads to a rise in the prices of all
the imported commodities and declining currency’s purchasing power, which is equal to
the proportion of the depreciation of the riyals against the dollar.
Despite the facts that others researches have not studied the fluctuating foreign
exchange rate on Yemeni currency Thus it is important to conduct such research.
1.3 Research Questions
In attempting to examine the impact of fluctuating foreign exchange rate on Yemeni
currency. This study aims to answer the following questions:
i. What is the relationship between fluctuating foreign exchange rate and Yemeni
currency?
ii. How fluctuating foreign exchange rate affect Yemeni currency?
1.4 Research Objectives
This study aims to examine the impact of fluctuating foreign exchange rate on Yemeni
currency and specifically achieving the following objectives.
i. To identify the nature of the relationship between fluctuating foreign exchange
rate and Yemeni currency.
ii. To examine the effect of fluctuating foreign exchange rate on Yemeni currency.
1.5 Research Contribution
The contribution of this study consists of theoretical and practical perspectives. This
study contributes to the body of knowledge from theoretical point of view due to some
reasons. This study investigates the effect of fluctuating foreign exchange rate on
Yemeni currency and new researchers who come after this research will get the total
benefits from these research.
In addition, this study contributes to the practical perspectives through different ways
The study will help exporters and importers alike investors and government to know the
behavior of the exchange rate as it directly or indirectly affects them and These study
4
would identify those economic variables that are mostly affected by instability in
exchange rate.
1.6 Limitations of the Study
The scope of this research was limited to examining the impact of fluctuating foreign
exchange rate on Yemeni currency. The scope of study was limited and it has to be
carried out in the Yemeni banks in Sana'a.
In addition, this study was also faced with constraints of gathering information, due to
the current situation, has not been able to access the branches of the Yemeni bank in
other Yemeni cities.
1.7 Definition of Terms
The following definitions describe the key terms that are adopted for this study:
i. Foreign Exchange Rate Fluctuations
Is the change in value of one currency against another currency due to various
economic factors (John Pradeep & Rajeesh Kunnampuram, 2002).
ii. Yemeni currency
The Yemeni riyal is the national currency of the Republic of Yemen. After the
revolution of 26 September 1962, the Ministry of Treasury issued the Republican
riyal, the first national currency in late 1963 (Bashiri, 2013) .
1.8 Research Organizing
This study constitutes a five chapter sequence:
Chapter 1 discusses on the introduction of the study, it discusses the problem statement,
research questions, and research objectives, indicates the research contribution and
limitation of the study, defines the terms of the research, and finally indicates the
research organizing plan.
Chapter 2 discusses the introduction of the literature review for both fluctuating foreign
exchange and Yemeni currency. It also explains the relationship between the fluctuating
foreign exchange rate and Yemen currency, finally, it discusses research framework
develop hypothesis, and summarize the overall chapter.
5
Chapter 3 discusses the research design, population and sample size, the instrumentation
used to measure both fluctuating foreign exchange rate and Yemeni currency, data
collection methods and administration, scale reliability, data analysis software, and
finally summarizes the overall chapter.
Chapter 4 discuss the overall data analysis that includes data screening, sample profile,
and descriptive statists of fluctuating foreign exchange rate and Yemen currency. It also
details correlation analysis, regression analysis, and hypothesis testing and the summary
of data analysis.
Chapter 5 includes a simple introduction, the result discussion, recommendations, future
research recommendations and finally the conclusion of the research.
6
CHAPTER TWO
LITERATURE REVIEW AND HYPOTHESES DEVELOPMENT
2.1 Introduction
This chapter begins with the definitions of different researchers, importance, and the
benefit of both variables The fluctuating foreign exchange rate and Yemeni currency.
Also, determinants of foreign exchange rate fluctuations, and Exchange Rate Regimes.
Moreover, it will explain the factors of the study based on the previous studies that are
related to this study. And it will include the previous studies on the relationship between
The fluctuating foreign exchange rate and Yemeni currency. As well as, the research
framework to examine that relationship between the two variables. In addition, it
consists of the hypotheses development, which is based on the extant literature review
and theoretical development, that will be discuss before the draw of the framework.
Finally, it concludes with a summary that review what the chapter discussed.
2.2 Currency
Currency is a generally accepted form of money, including coins and paper notes, which
is issued by a government and circulated within an economy. Used as a medium of
exchange for goods and services (Investopedia, 2016).
National Currency is defined as the currency or legal tender issued by a nation's central
bank or monetary authority. The national currency of a nation is usually the
predominant currency used for most financial transactions in that country (Investopedia,
2016).
The Yemeni riyal is the national currency of the Republic of Yemen. After the
revolution of 26 September 1962, the Ministry of Treasury issued the Republican riyal,
the first national currency in late 1963 (Bashiri, 2013).
7
2.2.1 The Importance Of Local Currency
Enhance national pride and solidarity every country has its own currency. It represents
the collective identity of a nation. The very existence of a national currency is a
tremendous source of pride for all citizens. In addition, it Promote price stability is
managed by adjusting money supply in the economy. As with any goods, an over-
supply of money in circulation would diminish its value, leading to inflation. Similarly,
an under-supply of money in circulation would increase its value, leading to deflation,
and also Reduce transaction costs Using one national currency in all domestic economic
transactions would help substantially reduce the costs for both buyers and sellers. In
addition, the Local Currency Promote infrastructure & social welfare Greater use of the
local currency can allow the government to better manage its budget to meet the needs
of investments in infrastructure. Furthermore, Accumulate foreign reserves in a country
where the national currency is exclusively used in the economy, foreign currencies that
flow into the country must be converted into the national currency before conducting
any domestic transactions. The role of the central bank is to absorb those foreign
currencies in exchange for its national currency (InvestingAnswers , 2016).
2.2.2 The Benefits Of Local Currency
The Local currency is often proposed as a way to revitalize local economies, insulate
them from global market forces, and re-create community. Local currency offers several
economic benefits:
It encourages people to shop at local businesses since only they are willing to accept
and use local currency. Also, It increases the local money supply, which increases
demand and stimulates local production and employment. As well as, It keeps money
within the community since it cannot be extracted to distant corporations. In addition, It
facilitates the circulation of goods and services among people who may not have
sufficient access to national currency but who may have time and skills to offer
(Eisenstein, 2011).
8
2.2.3 Previous Studies On Currency
Mohamed Al-Afandi, (2008) examined the economic and social impacts resulting from
floating the Yemeni currency. The study found that policy of floating the currency
coupled with some other policies has led to declining growth rates. Because of the
increase in imports and the limited non-oil exports, demand for both imports and
exports has been inelastic, thus causing a limited effect on the balance of trade and the
balance of payments. Extremely high inflation rates during 1996-2007 have resulted in
declining real wages and dropping living standards. It is a quantitative study.
In another related study, (M.Loto, 2011) studied the effect of devaluation/depreciation
of the Nigerian naira on the country’s trade balance for the period 1986 to 2008. The
study adopts the elasticity approach to the balance of payments adjustment. The study
investigates the effect of exchange rate devaluation as a policy on the Nigerian
economy’s Trade for the period 1986 to 2008. This study relied on secondary source of
data in a quantitative way. The data covered a period of twenty-five years starting from
1986 through 2008. The study concluded that devaluation/depreciation cannot improve
the trade balance in the Nigerian economy. Devaluation/depreciation can only benefit
countries that are originally export based before the devaluation /depreciation of a
currency. Economies that are import dependent like Nigeria can hardly benefit from the
devaluation/depreciation of its currency.
2.3 Fluctuating Foreign Exchange Rate
The exchange rate reflects the number of units of the national currency that can be
exchanged for one unit of foreign currency or is the number of units that must be paid
from a particular currency for a unit of another currency (Osama Al-Fouli, 2006), it is
the price at which one country’s currency exchanges for another country’s currency.
The exchange rate plays a pivotal role in determining the price of a nation’s product in
the rest of the world and domestic price of goods imported from abroad (Thomas,
2006).
In other words, the Exchange rate can be defined as the amount of one currency you can
exchange for other currencies (Amadeo, 2017).
9
Exchange rate fluctuation is defined as the risk related to unexpected movements in
exchange rates. Macroeconomic variables such as interest rates, inflation, the balance of
payments, tax rates, imports, exports, gross domestic product (GDP) and the money
supply is the random effect of exchange rates. The unstable of macroeconomic variables
depend on the current economic situation in their country (Wan Abdoh, 2016). Also,
Exchange rate fluctuation refers to the extent to which prices of currencies tend to
fluctuate over time (Cote, 2005).
2.3.1 Importance Of The Exchange Rate
The importance of the exchange rate differs from country to country. Generally, for
closed economies, its importance is less. For small, open economies, however, the
exchange rate is very important as it affects the prices of exports as well as imports.
While a country’s exports depend on the purchasing power of the rest of the world and
the price competition of the goods and services it exports, its imports are dependent on
the income and spending power of its residents and the competitiveness with imported
products in relation to domestically produced goods and services. A trade deficit, which
results from an excess of imports over exports, tends to bring downward pressure on the
domestic currency (depreciation of the exchange rate). Since the exchange rate
determines the value of foreign goods, services and financial assets that can be
purchased with domestic currency, if the domestic currency depreciates against other
currencies, imports become more expensive in terms of domestic currency. Whereas the
higher import prices in terms of domestic currency will reduce the purchasing power of
domestic consumers, domestic producers will benefit from becoming more competitive
against imports, both in domestic and export markets. This would lead to the
substitution of imports through increased domestic production. The higher demand for
domestic goods and services to be used for producing goods to be exported would
increase the domestic prices. This way, the exchange rate serves to allocate resources
between those goods and services that can be traded internationally and those that are
sold only in the domestic market. In addition to the trade balance and inflation,
exchange rates also influence foreign investments as investors decide on the
composition of their investment portfolios based on the prevailing as well as expected
exchange and interest rates. Exchange rates also affect a range of other factors ranging
from worker remittances to the reserve position of a country. The value of a country’s
exchange rate also depends on both, domestic and foreign monetary conditions. An
10
unexpected increase in domestic interest rates, for example, could attract capital inflows
and would lead to an appreciation of the domestic currency in the foreign exchange
market of an open economy (Central Bank of Sri Lanka, 2006).
2.3.2 Advantages Of Exchange Rate Systems
Advantages of fixed exchange rates:
Certainty: with a fixed exchange rate, firms will always know the exchange rate and this
makes trade and investment less risky. Also, The absence of speculation: with a fixed
exchange rate, there will be no speculation if people believe that the rate will stay fixed
with no revaluation or devaluation. In addition, Constraint on government policy: if the
exchange rate is fixed, then the government may be unable to pursue extreme or
irresponsible macroeconomic policies as these would cause a run on the foreign
exchange reserves and this would be unsustainable in the medium-term.
Advantages of floating exchange rates:
Protection from external shocks: if the exchange rate is free to float, then it can change
in response to external shocks like oil price rises. Also, Lack of policy constraints: the
government is free with a floating exchange rate system to pursue the policies they feel
are appropriate for the domestic economy without worrying about them conflicting with
their external policy. In addition, Correction of the balance of payments deficits: a
floating exchange rate can depreciate to compensate for a balance of payments deficit.
This will help restore the competitiveness of exports (International Economics, 2015).
2.3.3 Main causes that Affect Foreign Exchange Rates
Inflation Rates: Changes in market inflation cause changes in currency exchange rates.
A country with a lower inflation rate than another's will see an appreciation in the value
of its currency. The prices of goods and services increase at a slower rate where the
inflation is low. A country with a consistently lower inflation rate exhibits a rising
currency value while a country with higher inflation typically sees depreciation in its
currency and is usually accompanied by higher interest rates. Also, Interest Rates:
Changes in interest rate affect currency value and dollar exchange rate. Forex rates,
interest rates, and inflation are all correlated. Increases in interest rates cause a country's
currency to appreciate because higher interest rates provide higher rates to lenders,
11
thereby attracting more foreign capital, which causes a rise in exchange rates.
Furthermore, Country’s Balance of Payments: a country’s current account reflects the
balance of trade and earnings on foreign investment. It consists of total number of
transactions including its exports, imports, debt, etc. A deficit in the current account due
to spending more of its currency on importing products than it is earning through the
sale of exports causes depreciation. The Balance of payments fluctuates exchange rate
of its domestic currency. Moreover, Terms of Trade: Related to current accounts and
balance of payments, the terms of trade are the ratio of export prices to import prices. A
country's terms of trade improve if its exports prices rise at a greater rate than its
imports prices. This results in higher revenue, which causes a higher demand for the
country's currency and an increase in its currency's value. This results in an appreciation
of exchange rate. In addition, Political Stability & Performance: a country's political
state and economic performance can affect its currency strength. A country with less
risk for political turmoil is more attractive to foreign investors, as a result, drawing
investment away from other countries with more political and economic stability.
Increase in foreign capital, in turn, leads to an appreciation in the value of its domestic
currency. A country with sound financial and trade policy does not give any room for
uncertainty in the value of its currency. But, a country prone to political confusions may
see a depreciation in exchange rates. Finally the Speculation: If a country's currency
value is expected to rise, investors will demand more of that currency in order to make a
profit in the near future. As a result, the value of the currency will rise due to the
increase in demand. With this increase in currency value comes a rise in the exchange
rate as well (compareremit, 2014).
2.3.4 Exchange Rate Regimes
Countries have a wide scale of exchange rate regimes to choose from, ranging from
fixed (conventional peg) to freely floating exchange rate. The regime type a country
chooses should depend on the current economic situation, size of the economy, the
types of exchange rates other countries are using, and the long-term economic policy
goal. For example, price stability with trade partners is crucial for an open economy that
has a large portion of its gross domestic product (GDP) dependent on exports.
Therefore, this country will be less likely to adopt a freely floating exchange rate where
price volatility is potentially high and can discourage international trade. According to
the International Monetary Fund classification, exchange rate arrangements can be
12
classified into four categories: hard pegs or fixed regimes (such as currency board
arrangements), soft pegs or intermediate regimes (such as crawling pegs, stabilized
arrangements, and craw-like arrangements), floating regimes (such as managed floating
and free floating), and residuals (IMF, 2013). Under fixed exchange rate, the local
currency is either pegged against another currency or a basket of other currencies. The
main goal of this system is to achieve stability in the value of currency through fixing it
against a stronger and more stable currency (or currencies). The main advantage of this
system is that the currency does not fluctuate according to market conditions, and
therefore creates a stable and predictable business climate for investments and trade
between the two currencies. However, the main drawback of pegged exchange rates is
that it is very difficult for government to conduct independent monetary policy and to
liberalize capital markets at the same time (Thirlwall, 2003). For instance, capital
outflows will result in currency depreciation. In order to tackle this, the central bank
needs to raise domestic interest rates, which eventually depresses the domestic
economy. The reverse situation occurs with capital inflows. Therefore, the only way for
an economy to maintain domestic and external equilibrium is either to control capital
movements or to allow the exchange rate to float.
Within flexible exchange rate regime, the value of the currency is allowed to fluctuate
based on the supply and demand of that particular currency in the exchange market. One
of the advantages of floating regime is the automatic adjustment of balance of
payments, whose deficit or surplus is corrected by appreciation or depreciation of the
currency (Ghosh & Wolf, 2002). The main disadvantage of this system is the stability
factor. The Exchange rate can appreciate wildly and therefore be disruptive for tradable
goods sector. When the currency depreciates, it can lead to extreme inflation by raising
the domestic price of imports. Therefore, many countries that adopt floating exchange
rate practice managed floating by intervening in some level in order to maintain their
macroeconomic stability and minimize volatility impact. In reality, the implementations
of exchange rate regimes are not always about choosing the other end of the spectrum.
Most countries adopt a variety of combinations of both fixed and floating regimes,
which are called intermediate regimes. One type of intermediate regimes is the crawling
peg, where a currency value is allowed to fluctuate within a certain limit (Jakob, 2016).
13
2.3.5 Previous Studies On Fluctuating Foreign Exchange Rate
(Zakari, 2017), investigated the relationship between foreign exchange rate and foreign
direct investment in Nigeria, this is important in view of the recent and past devaluation
of Nigeria currency as well as the exchange rate changes over the years to be precise 26
years coverage 1990-2015. This underscores the need to assess how foreign investors
through foreign direct investment respond to changes in the exchange rate. This study
relied on secondary data and time series. Data were collected from the website of
Central Bank of Nigeria in a quantitative way for the period under review and analyzed
using regression and correlation analysis techniques. Findings from the analysis show
that there is a strong positive relationship between foreign direct investment and
exchange rate in Nigeria. The study also found that there was a significant inflow of
FDI from 2005-2014 due to rise in the exchange rate in the same period. The study
concludes that exchange rate and foreign direct investment are positively correlated.
Moreover, (Ogundipe, 2013) examined the impact of exchange rate volatility on
consumer prices in Nigeria. The study adopts a Structural Vector autoregressive to
estimate the pass-through effect of exchange rate changes to consumer prices. Using the
Variance Decomposition analyses. In this research, secondary data was collected from
Central Bank of Kenya. The study found a substantially large exchange rate pass-
through to inflation in Nigeria. The Finding shows that exchange rate has been more
important in explaining Nigeria’s rising inflation phenomenon than the actual money
supply. Therefore, it is recommended that Nigerian economy focus on policies that
ensure exchange rate stability and sound monetary surveillance.
2.4 previous studies on the relationship between fluctuating foreign exchange
rate and currency:
(Danson Musyoki, 2012) have done an investigation to found out the link between the
exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Kenyan. The study examined the impact
of real exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Kenyan. The study employed the
Generalized Autoregressive Condition of Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and
computation of the unconditional standard deviation of the changes to measure volatility
and Generalized Method Moments (GMM) to assess the impact of the real exchange
14
rate volatility on economic growth for the period January 1993 to December 2009. The
main type of data used in this study is secondary that collected from Kenya National
Bureau of Statistics, Central Bank of Kenya and International Monetary Fund Data Base
by taking monthly frequency. And the Research Methodology of This study is
quantitative. The study found that real effective exchange rate was very volatility for the
entire study period. Kenya’s The real exchange rate generally exhibited an appreciating
and volatility trend, implying that in general, the country’s international
competitiveness deteriorated over the study period. The real exchange rate Volatility
reflected a negative impact on economic growth and which has a great impact on the
local currency of Kenya.
2.5 Research Framework
The purpose of the development of the research framework is to examine the
relationships between fluctuating foreign exchange rate and Yemeni currency. The
theoretical framework proposed in this study comprised of independent variables
namely fluctuating foreign exchange rate. Yemeni currency is considered as a
dependent variable in the theoretical framework as illustrated in figure 2.1.
IV DV
Figure 2.1 Theoretical framework
2.6 Hypotheses Development
Based on the extant literature review and theoretical development discussed in previous
sections, a number of hypotheses have been developed to answer the two identified
research questions.
H1: Fluctuating foreign exchange rate has a relationship with Yemeni currency.
H2: Fluctuating foreign exchange rate has a significant effect on Yemeni currency.
Fluctuating
Foreign
Exchange Rate
Yemeni
currency
15
2.7 Summary
This chapter discussed the literature review of Fluctuating foreign exchange rate and
Yemeni currency with previous studies. In addition, this chapter discussed the
development of the theoretical framework and research hypotheses based on research
questions.
16
CHAPTER THREE
RESEARCH METHODOLOGY
3.1 Introduction
This chapter presents the study design and methodology used in gathering information
needed for the purpose of completing the study. This chapter describes the purpose, type
and the type of investigation of this study. As well as, This chapter involves a blueprint
for the collection, measurement, and analysis of data. Also, in this chapter describes the
target population, sampling design, and data collection instrument and procedures.
Additionally, it contains all the questions that are used to measure the two variables of
this study. Finally, The chapter will be concluded by an exposition of the different
statistical techniques used in the analysis.
3.2 Research Design
Research design can be thought of as the logic or master plan of a research that throws
light on how the study is to be conducted. It shows how all of the major parts of the
research study– the samples or groups, measures, treatments or programs and many
more. Work together in an attempt to address the research questions. A research design
is the arrangement of conditions for data collection and analysis of data in a manner that
aims to combine relevance to research purpose with economy in research procedure.
(Chomba, 2012). According to Leedy&Ormrod (2005), a research design is a
comprehensive plan that involves highlighting all the methods that will be utilized in the
collection and analysis of data. The research design is also in line with the research
objectives and study questions. Moreover, Research design is the plan and structure of
investigation so conceived as to obtain answers to research questions. The plan is the
overall scheme or program of the research (Robson, 2002).
17
3.2.1 Research Approach
There are two prominent research approaches, Qualitative research and Quantitative
research. Qualitative research methods normally entail reasoning from induction,
gathering data and drawing conclusions from a multiplicity of interpretations and
perceptions, beginning with observation, rather than a single, objective truth or
rationality (Neuman, 1997). Qualitative research tends to focus on the collection of
detailed amounts of primary data from relatively small samples of subjects by asking
questions or observing behaviors (Hair et al.,2003).Quantitative approaches are
generally based on the logic of deduction, beginning from accepted theories or premises
and testing them rationally. Science in quantitative approaches is associated with
objective truth, while qualitative research tends to focus on subjective experience
(Neuman,1997). Quantitative research places heavy emphasis on using formalized
standard questions and predetermined response options in the questionnaires or surveys
administered to large number of respondents. Quantitative research methods are directly
related to descriptive research designs than to exploratory designs (Hair et al.,2003).
Quantitative research methods, on the other hand, involves the measurement of concepts
using scales that either directly or indirectly provide numerical data ,These numerical
data are then analyzed using mathematical procedures. These procedures can be
extremely simple, such as percentages, or more complicated, such as statistical models
or hypothesis testing using sophisticated software. Moreover, quantitative research
methods enable researchers to determine the generalizability of the data collected from
the sample to the population. To achieve this, quantitative methods rely on the use of
fairly large samples collected through questionnaires or structured interviews (Zikmund
& Griffin ,2010).
Table 3.1: Key differences between qualitative and quantitative research.
Selected
Criteria
Qualitative Quantitative
Conceptual Concerned with understanding
human behavior from the
informant’s perspective.
Concerned with discovering
facts about social phenomena.
Assumes a dynamic and negotiated
reality
Assumes a fixed and
measurable reality.
Methodologic
al
Data are collected through
participant observation and
interviews.
Data collected through
measuring things.
Source: (McLeod, 2008)
18
Therefore, In this study mainly quantitative research method is used that focuses on
responded to research questions requiring numerical data, accentuate target estimations
and the factual, scientific, or numerical examination of information gathered through
surveys, polls, and reviews or by controlling prior measurable information utilizing
computational methods.
3.2.2 Purpose of The Study
Research purposes may be grouped into three categories, which are exploratory,
descriptive, and hypothesis testing. First, it is the exploratory research According to
Polit et al (2001) explorative studies are undertaken when a new area is being
investigated or when little is known about an area of interest. It is used to investigate the
full nature of the phenomenon and other factors related to it. Second, it is the descriptive
research According to Burns & Grove (2003) descriptive research “is designed to
provide a picture of a situation as it naturally happens. It may be used to justify current
practice and make judgment and also to develop theories. The main aim of descriptive
research is to provide an accurate and valid representation of (encapsulate) the factors or
variables that pertain / are relevant to the research question. The third type is Hypothesis
testing is about testing to see whether the stated hypothesis is acceptable or not. During
our hypothesis testing, we want to gather as much data as we can so that we can prove
our hypothesis one way or another. The purpose of this study, hypothesis testing since it
developed the theoretical framework and the hypotheses.
3.2.3 Type of Investigation
We can find two types of investigations in the literature: Causal study and correlational
study. Finding out the relationship among variables in the descriptive research process
is labeled as correlation study which, according to Cooper and Schindler (2003), is a
subset of descriptive study. A correlational study is conducted in the natural
environment of the organization with minimum interference by the researcher with the
normal flow of work (Sekaran, 2003). Also, Bold (2001) noted that the purpose of a
correlational study is to establish whether two or more variables are related.
Causal study is in which researcher wants to delineate the cause of one or more
problems. In studies conducted to establish cause-and-effect relationships, the
researcher tries to manipulate certain variables so as to study the effects of such
19
manipulation on the dependent variable of interest (Sekaran, 2003). In the causal
research, the researcher examines how the independent variables are affected by the
dependent variables and involves cause and effect relationships between the variables
(Williams, 2007). In this regard, this study is a correlation type of investigation as we
examine the relationship among variables.
3.2.4 Extent of Researcher Interference
The extent of interference by the researcher with the normal flow of work at the
workplace has a direct effect on whether the study performed is causal or correlational.
A correlational study is carried out in the natural environment of the corporation with
minimal interference by the researcher with the normal flow of work. In studies carried
out to determine cause-and-effect relationships, the investigator attempts to adjust
specific variables in order to study the outcomes of such manipulation on the dependent
variable of interest. Put simply, the researcher intentionally changes certain variables in
the setting and disrupts the events as they normally happen in the business (Jodie,
2015). Since, The Extent of researcher interference in this study minimum level of
Interference by Researcher because the purpose is Hypothesis Testing.
3.2.5 Study Setting
There are two type of Study setting is classified to contrived which is taking under the
artificial setting, and the non-contrived study taken under the natural environment
where work proceeds normally. According to the above the setting of this study is under
the natural environment, thus this study is a non-contrived study.
3.3 Population and Sampling
According to John W (2007), A population is any group of individuals who have one or
more characteristics in common that are of interest to the researcher. The population
may be all the individuals of a particular type or a more restricted part of that group.
It is difficult to get responses from the whole population therefore; you have to
determine a specific respondents that called a sample. According to Salaria (2012), a
sample is a group chosen from a larger population with the aim of yielding information
about this population as a whole is termed as sample. It is a miniature picture of the
entire group or aggregate from which it has been taken. It is a smaller representation of
20
a larger whole. A good sample not only needs to be representative, it needs also to be
adequate or of sufficient size to allow confidence in the stability of its characteristics.
Fred N. Kerlinger (2007), states that sampling is taking any portion of a population or
universe as representative of that population or universe.
3.3.1 Population
The present study was carried out on the banking sector and more specifically on
employees of commercial and Islamic banks of Yemen also, central bank. The targeted
population for this study was banks operating in Sana'a. Five commercial, Islamic banks
and central bank were considered. Table 3.2 includes the targeted banks.
Table 3.2: The Targeted Banks
Name Of Bank Number Of Employees
Central Bank 700
Yemen Kuwait Bank 270
Cac Bank 2000
Saba Islamic Bank 350
International Bank Of Yemen 800
Total 4120
3.3.2 Sample Size
According to kinra (2006) theories a typical range of sample size used by most
researchers was 150-300. This research tends to choose a sample size of 180. This study
will distribute the questionnaire base on the stratified sampling as well as the random
distribution based on the sample random method.
3.4 Instrumentation
The instrument used in the present study was personally administered questionnaire
because of conducting primary research and questionnaire is most effective tool for this
type of research (Sekaran, 2010). A questionnaire is a form containing a set of
questions, especially addressed to a statistically significant number of subjects, and is a
way of gathering information for a survey. It is used to collect statistical information or
opinions about people. The oxford advanced learner‘s dictionary (1997) defines a
21
questionnaire as a written or printed list of questions to be answered by a number of
people, especially as part of a survey. Therefore, the content of the questionnaire
developed for this study consist of three sections. The first section contains the
demographic data of the respondents. The second section contains questions that are
pertaining the Yemeni currency. The third section contains questions that are pertaining
the fluctuating foreign exchange rate. All the questions under this questionnaire will use
the Five Likert Scale as shown in table 3.3.
Table 3.3 Five Likert Scale
Strongly
disagree
Disagree undecided agree Strongly
agree
1 2 3 4 5
Source: (Podio help Center, 2016)
22
3.4.1 Yemeni Currency Measurement
The study contains of seven questions established to study the Yemeni Currency. For
the reason of completing this study, the questions will be adapted by the researcher.
Table 3.4 shows the questions that measure Yemeni Currency.
Table 3.4: Yemeni Currency Measurement
No. Question
1 Exchange rate system imposed by central bank has an important role in
reducing the risk of fluctuations in exchange rates.
2 Importing a lot participate in exporting more foreign currency to other
countries.
3 Lack of foreign investments coming to Yemen participate in declining foreign
exchange currencies.
4 Exchange rates affect directly in the Yemeni economy.
5 One of the most important means that affect the exchange rate are changes in
currency supply and demand.
6 If a country is running very large budget deficits, a decrease in the value of its
exchange rate will follow.
7 Exchange rates are affected by balance of trade deficits
3.4.2 Fluctuating Foreign Exchange Rate Measurement
The study contains of seven questions established to study the Fluctuating Foreign
Exchange Rate . For the reason of completing this study, the questions will be adapted
by the researcher. Table 3.5 shows the questions that measure Fluctuating Foreign
Exchange Rate.
Table 3.5: Fluctuating Foreign Exchange Rate Measurement
No. Question
1 Yemeni currency is facing deficits, because of the foreign exchange policy of
central bank.
2 The exchange rate has experienced extreme fluctuations.
3 The sharp decline in the CBY’s foreign reserves has weakened the national
23
economy, thereby shaking customers’ confidence in the national currency.
4 Decline in the CBY’s total foreign reserves brings about wide fluctuations in
exchange rates.
5 The continuing fall of the Rial against other currencies is attributed to lack of
exports primarily.
6 Amongst the factors weighing on the rial have been widespread collapse of
economic activity, and the cessation of oil exports.
7 Political-conflicts, especially armed ones, are almost inevitable indicators of
many economic turmoil, one of them is currency deterioration.
3.5 Data Collection
Sources of data are broadly classified in two categories, primary and secondary.
According to parasuraman (2004), primary data are the information collected for the
first time to bring about any explicit needs of a particular research. Require of primary
data collection entail a range of diverse means. They are, personal or emails based
survey questionnaires, face to face or telephone interviews, observations and focus
groups (ghauri & gronhaug, 2005). While the secondary data is detailed information
accessed by the researcher through other available sources of information to obtain
thorough literature review. In fact, most of the studies begin in that fashion (kanikapati,
2007). The secondary source of data is very easy to extract and available in plenty
through, books, magazines, journals, articles, and websites. In this study, a combination
of both sets of data are used achieve maximum results. Therefore, the data collection of
this research considered as primary and secondary data.in secondary data have been
utilized to explore literature on this study and majority of the data pertaining to study
have been collected through books, journals, websites, and articles. In data primary
have been utilized the questionnaires method. Data was taken from employees of banks
a self-administered questionnaire survey.
24
3.5.1 Instrumentation Translation
These instruments were translated into the Arabic language for the convenience of
participants. The whole questionnaire containing all the scale items were translated into
the Arabic language for better understanding of the respondents to get the exact
response from the banking employees. By the experts who are fluent in both English
and Arabic, at the College of Languages and Translation at Sana'a University at Sana'a,
Yemen.
3.5.2 Administration of Questionnaire
Different ways to distributing the questionnaire such as self-administered questionnaire,
using mail and personally handed. The self-administered questionnaire is a type of
questionnaire, either in paper or in an electronic form that a respondent completes on
his/her own. It enables the researchers to reach a large number of potential respondents
in a variety of locations, especially when utilizing mail-in responses or online
questionnaires. However, the response rate for self-administered surveys is relatively
low, compared to other methods such as interviews or researcher-administered
questionnaires (LLC, 2016). Mail surveys are a quantitative marketing research data
collection method in which the respondent completes the questionnaires on paper and
returns them via mail (research-methods, 2013).Group administered questionnaire
(personally handed), a sample of respondents are brought together and asked to respond
to a structured sequence of questions. Traditional, questionnaires were administered in
group settings for convenience. The researcher could give the questionnaire to those
who were present and be fairly sure that there would be a high response rate. If the
respondents were unclear about the meaning of a question they could ask for
clarification. And, there were often organizational settings where it was relatively easy
to assemble the group in a company (M.K, 2006).Since, this study the distribution of the
questionnaire was personally handed.
25
3.6 Scale Reliability
For define the scale reliability, the questionnaire has been tasted using Cronbach's
Alpha to confirm the internal consistency. Table 3.6 shows the results of Cronbach's
Alpha test to all the questions of the questionnaire.
Table 3.6: Reliability Statistics
Cronbach's Alpha No. of Items
.778 14
3.7 Data Analysis
SPSS was used for data analysis. Data related to studied variables were coded and
entered to the computer using SPSS software as it was most widely available and
powerful statistical software package. SPSS is user friendly and cost effective for
quantitative research in social sciences (Prabhakar, 2008). After data has been entered,
it can be analyzed using Frequency Analysis, Descriptive analysis, correlation analysis,
simple or multiple regression. Frequency analysis is used to answer the first research
question. Frequency analysis is a descriptive statistical method that shows the number
of occurrences of each response chosen by the respondents. When using frequency
analysis, SPSS Statistics can also calculate the mean, median and mode to help users
analyze the results and draw conclusions (winter,2016).
Descriptive analysis these types of basic statistical analyses attempt to quantify the main
features of a collection of data and can be used on data from both qualitative and
quantitative studies. Correlation analysis is used to shows the relationship among
different variables. Regression analysis is a statistical method of estimating the
Relationship between a continuous dependent variable and one or more continuous
Independent or predictor variables (Allison, 1999).
26
3.8 Summary
This chapter has focused on the research methodologies, research approaches, Research
purposes, and types of investigations that was adopted in the study. Including
procedures, participants, data collection tools, data collection and analysis methods, and
data credibility issues. At long last, the section was finished by showing the measurable
investigation strategies utilized as a part of this study.
27
CHAPTER FOUR
Data Analysis
4.1 Introduction
After completing chapter three that described the research methodology and how the
data was collected, this chapter is going to show the data analysis, which was obtained
from the quantitative research method using questionnaire that was distributed to certain
banks in Yemen, Moreover this chapter will describe the correlation relationship and
linear regression between all variables and present the results of hypothesis testing
typically the effect of independent variable which is fluctuating foreign exchange rate
on the dependent variable which is Yemeni currency by using an analytical
methodology manner. Accordingly, the data obtained from the research is be analyzed
and represented in tables, graphs and accompanied with clarified text using SPSS
software. Finally, after testing the hypothesis, the research will come up with a result
either to support or reject the developed hypothesis.
4.2 Data Screening
Before conducting any analyses, The data was screened for any errors in coding.
Frequency test in SPSS version 21.0 was used in order to do this process. The results of
this test showed that there were no errors in data entry and there was no extreme
minimum or maximum value going above the range and the mean was also within the
specified range. As well as, by applying a missing value analysis offered by SPSS 21.0
software, the results found that all cases were valid (180 cases) and no missing data.
Therefore, it can be concluded that the data was clean and ready be tested and analyzed.
28
4.3 Sample Profile
The targeted population was to (Managers and Employees), in five banks in sanaa
which are, (Central Bank of Yemen , CAC BANK, YKB, International Bank Of Yemen
and Saba Islamic Bank). The research questionnaire was distributed to 180 employees.
The total surveys received for the current research was 148 and they were valid.
Therefore, the overall response rate of 82% percent was obtained. In addition, the
characteristics of the respondents are outlined in this section which is the gender, age.
Education, position, and experience. So these demographic data were analyzed by using
frequency tables and figures as follow.
4.3.1 Gender
Table 4.1 and Figure 4.1 below show that most of the members of the sample group was
male with (84.5%) and (15.5%) female. Gender is quite frequently a distinguishing
segmentation variables. (84.5%) which is 125 respondents out of 148 respondents are
males, on the other hand (15.5%) which is 23 female respondents out of 148
respondents.
Table 4.1 Frequency Analysis of Gender
Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative
Percent
Valid
Male 125 84.5 84.5 84.5
Female 23 15.5 15.5 100.0
Total 148 100.0 100.0
Figure 4.1: Gender Frequency Analysis
29
4.3.2 Age
As shown in Table 4.2 and Figure 4.2, most respondents were at the age 30-40 with
(67.6%) that matches 100 respondents out of 148. After that, respondents between the
age 20 to 30 years represented (19.6%) and a total number of 29. Moreover, (11.5%)
were between the age 41-50 with a total number of 17 respondents. Finally, only 2
respondents were above the age 51 represented by (1.4%).
Table 4.2: Age Frequency Analysis
Frequenc
y
Percent Valid
Percent
Cumulative
Percent
Valid
20-30 29 19.6 19.6 19.6
30-40 100 67.6 67.6 87.2
41-50 17 11.5 11.5 98.6
51+ 2 1.4 1.4 100.0
Total 148 100.0 100.0
Figure 4.2: Age Frequency Analysis
30
4.3.3 Education
The results of the educational level of the participants indicated that (69.6%) of the
participants who represent the highest number by 103 have bachelor degree. Followed
by diploma degree represented by (16.9%) with total number of 25 participants. 19
participants have master degree who represent (12.8%) of the total percentage. Finally,
(0.7%) represent that who has PHD degree with only 1 person, as shown in Table and
Figure 4.3.
Table 4.3: Education Frequency Analysis
Frequenc
y
Percent Valid
Percent
Cumulative
Percent
Valid
Diploma 25 16.9 16.9 16.9
Bachelor 103 69.6 69.6 86.5
Master 19 12.8 12.8 99.3
Phd 1 .7 .7 100.0
Total 148 100.0 100.0
Figure 4.3: Education Frequency Analysis
31
4.3.4 Position
The participants position level varied between managers from different levels.
Employees participants were (48%) with a total number of 71. While (41.9%) contained
the Middle Managers participants with total number of 62.Finally, top managers
participants were (10.1%) with a total number of 15 as shown in Table and Figure 4.4.
Table 4.4: Position Frequency Analysis
Frequency Percent Valid
Percent
Cumulative
Percent
Valid
Top Manager 15 10.1 10.1 10.1
Middle
Manager
62 41.9 41.9 52.0
Employee 71 48.0 48.0 100.0
Total 148 100.0 100.0
Figure 4.4: Position Frequency Analysis
32
4.3.5 Experience
The highest percentage of (44.6%) were for those with 6-10 years of experience by 66
respondents. Over 10 years of experience came next with 40 respondents and (27%).
Moreover, (23%) of the respondents fall under the category of 2-5 years of experience
with a total number of 34 respondents. Finally, 8 respondents who have less than 2
years’ experience with a percent of (5.4%).as shown on table 4.5 and figure 4.5.
Table 4.5: Experience Frequency Analysis
Frequenc
y
Percent Valid
Percent
Cumulative
Percent
Valid
Less than 2
years
8 5.4 5.4 5.4
2-5 years 34 23.0 23.0 28.4
6-10 years 66 44.6 44.6 73.0
Over 10 years 40 27.0 27.0 100.0
Total 148 100.0 100.0
Figure 4.5: Experience Frequency Analysis
33
4.4 Descriptive Statistics
Descriptive analysis includes the means and the standard deviations for the dependent
and independent variables, which are explained in the following sub-sections. Table 4.6
explains how the verbal evaluation was calculated for the SPSS output of the descriptive
statistics.
Table 4.6: Verbal evaluation
How to calculate the verbal evaluation
If the average is Verbal Evaluation
Less than 1.80 Strongly Disagree
From 1.81and less than 2.60 Disagree
From 2.61 and less than 3.40 Neutral
From 3.41 and less than 4.20 Agree
From 4.21 to 5 Strongly Agree
34
4.4.1 Fluctuating Foreign Exchange Rate
Question (4) got the first rank with a mean of 4.28 and standard deviation of .848 on the
other hand, question (1) ranked last with a mean of 3.99 and standard deviation of
1.037. The overall average of the variable is 4.1380 and standard deviation is .49218 as
shown in table 4.7.
Table 4.7: fluctuating foreign exchange rate Descriptive Statistics
No
.
N Mean Std.
Deviation
Verbal
Appreciation
1 Exchange rate system imposed by central bank has
an important role in reducing the risk of fluctuations
in exchange rates.
148 3.99 1.037 Agree
2 Importing a lot participate in exporting more foreign
currency to other countries
148 4.20 .830 Agree
3 Lack of foreign investments coming to Yemen
participate in declining foreign exchange currencies.
148 4.20 .903 Agree
4 Exchange rates affect directly in the Yemeni
economy
148 4.28 .848 Strongly
Agree
5 One of the most important means that affect the
exchange rate are changes in currency supply and
demand.
148 4.14 .822 Agree
6 if a country is running very large budget deficits, a
decrease in the value of its exchange rate will
follow.
148 4.11 .885 Agree
7 Exchange rates are affected by balance of trade
deficits
148 4.05 .772 Agree
fluctuating foreign exchange rate
148 4.138
0
.49218
Valid N (listwise) 148
35
4.4.1 Yemeni Currency
Question (3) got the first rank with a mean of 4.53and standard deviation of .694 on the
other hand, question (1) ranked last with a mean of 3.67and standard deviation of 1.151 .
The overall average of the variable is 4.2288 and standard deviation is .51136 as shown
in table 4.8.
Table 4.8: Yemeni currency Descriptive Statistics
No
.
N Mean Std.
Deviation
Verbal
Appreciatio
n
1 Yemeni currency is facing deficits , because of the
foreign exchange policy of CB.
148 3.67 1.151 Agree
2 The exchange rate has experienced extreme
fluctuations.
148 4.30 .771 Strongly
Agree
3 The sharp decline in the CBY’s foreign reserves has
weakened the national economy, thereby shaking
customers’ confidence in the national currency.
148 4.53 .694 Strongly
Agree
4 Decline in the CBY’s total foreign reserves brings
about wide fluctuations in exchange rates.
148 4.34 .797 Strongly
Agree
5 the continuing fall of the Rial against other
currencies is attributed to lack of exports primarily.
148 3.92 .845 Agree
6 Amongst the factors weighing on the rial have been
widespread collapse of economic activity, and the
cessation of oil exports .
148 4.31 .658 Strongly
Agree
7 Political-conflicts, especially armed ones, are almost
inevitable indicators of many economic turmoil ,one
of them is currency deterioration.
148 4.52 .778 Strongly
Agree
Yemeni currency 148 4.2288 .51136
Valid N (listwise) 148
36
4.5 Correlation Analysis
In order to examine the relationship between variables, correlation analysis was used.
Table 4.9 clarifies the correlation matrix between the two variables. It indicated that
fluctuating foreign exchange rate was correlated with Yemeni currency (r = .479, p <
0.05, 2-tailed). The Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) for the relationship between the
fluctuating foreign exchange rate and Yemeni currency was shown to be r = .479 with a
p value of .000 , which is well below the conventional threshold of p ≤ .05. Therefore,
there is a significant relationship between fluctuating foreign exchange rate and Yemeni
currency.
Table 4.9: Correlation Analysis
iv Dv
Iv
Pearson Correlation 1 .479**
Sig. (2-tailed) .000
N 148 148
Dv
Pearson Correlation .479**
1
Sig. (2-tailed) .000
N 148 148
**. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed).
4.6 Regression Analysis
The regression analysis is about determining the shape of the correlation between
variables, either positive or negative relationship. Therefore, the simple linear
regression is used to study the relationship between a dependent variable and an
independent for purpose of the value prediction of dependent variable by depending on
the values of independent variables. So, in this research, Multiple regression analysis
was used to test the hypothesis for direct effect between the (independent variables)
fluctuating foreign exchange rate on Yemeni currency (dependent variable).Table 4.10
indicates that the R square is (.230) which means that (23%) of the dependent variable
which is Yemeni currency can be explained or predicted by the independent variable
which is fluctuating foreign exchange rate.
37
According to the R square value, the percentage of the influence in this research is
(23%) that describe low influence by the fluctuating foreign exchange rate on the
Yemeni currency and these is mean there are still have other variables that not mention
in the research.
Table 4.10:Model Summary
Model R R Square Adjusted R
Square
Std. Error of the
Estimate
1 .479a
.230 .225 .45031
a. Predictors: (Constant), fluctuating foreign exchange rate
According to the results from multiple regression analysis, As shown in table 4.11
fluctuating foreign exchange rate has a Significant effect on Yemeni currency (Beta=
.479, p=.000<0.05) which has been supported the hypothesis 2.
Table 4.11:Coefficientsa
Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized
Coefficients
t Sig.
B Std. Error Beta
1
(Constant) 2.168 .314 6.894 .000
iv .498 .075 .479 6.600 .000
a. Dependent Variable: Yemeni currency
4.7 Hypotheses Testing
According to the results concluded by Correlations analysis and regression analysis,
Table 4.12 Shows the summary of hypotheses testing results.
Table 4.12 Summary of Hypotheses Testing Results
Hypothesis Statement Result
H1
Fluctuating foreign exchange rate has a relationship with
Yemeni currency.
Supported
38
H2
Fluctuating foreign exchange rate has a significant effect on
Yemeni currency.
Supported
4.8 Summary
This chapter showed the finding collected from the respondents. The respondent
characteristics had varied from male and females with different age, level of education,
position in the organization, and years of experience. Also, this chapter presented a
descriptive statistics for each variable where varieties mean and standard variation had
discussed. In addition, personal correlation analysis was used to indicate the
significance of independent variable on dependent variable. Furthermore, liner
regression was used in order to indicate whether the research hypothesis are supported
or not.
39
CHAPTER FIVE
DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION
5.1 Introduction
This study attempts to examine the impact of fluctuating foreign exchange rate on
Yemeni currency. Two hypotheses have been developed assuming that there is a
relationship between fluctuating foreign exchange rate and Yemeni currency and the
Yemeni currency affected on fluctuating foreign exchange rate. After analyzing the data
using the SPSS software, the results have supported the hypotheses as well as the
previous studies done on the subject. Therefore, this chapter will discuss the results and
will give some recommendations and future research to broaden the understanding of
the current state of knowledge on Yemeni currency and fluctuating foreign exchange
rate.
5.2 Discussion
This research’s investigation resulted in proving the existence of a significant
relationship between the fluctuating foreign exchange rate and the Yemeni currency, as
the independent variable (fluctuating foreign exchange rate) and the dependent variable
(The Yemeni currency) are correlated as (r = .479) at the significance level of (0.01).
And the results from multiple regression analysis indicated that fluctuating foreign
exchange rate has a Significant effect on Yemeni currency (Beta= .479, p=.000<0.05),
which support the two hypotheses of this study, and which also answer the research
questions. Finally, the results of this study supported the results in the literature review.
According to the result discussed in chapter four, it supports the result that was proved
by Danson Musyoki in 2012 The exchange rate Fluctuations reflected a negative impact
on economic growth and which has a great impact on the local currency of Kenya.
40
5.3 Recommendations
Based on the findings, therefore the following recommendations were made. Two main
categories that are representing the recommendations regarding to the roles of different
entities. Government and the private sector (banks)
5.3.1 Recommendations for Government
The government should prevent any goods entering Yemen only with a notification of
banks operating and authorized, in order to treat the financial movement and return to
the natural financial market. Moreover, create a department in the Central Bank for the
control of exchange companies And delivery of the Central Bank to the daily movement
of each exchange company. Finally, The government should Developing supervision
and oversight mechanisms on the activities of banks and exchange companies, and
ensuring the provision of accurate information through the automated link.
5.3.2 Recommendations For Private Sector (banks)
Banks should create a new polices and strategies to be able to deal with such issues in
the near or far future.
5.4 Future Research
Through reviewing previous research, the researcher recommended that There should be
further studies relating to exchange rate fluctuation with other variables that the
researcher have not mentioned in this study. The effect of exchange rate fluctuation on
foreign direct investment should be done. Since foreign direct investment is a major
determinant of GDP and helps to boots income. It can also be used an indicator of
growth for a country in terms of cash inflow. Furthermore, The effect of exchange rate
fluctuation on inflation of the economy. Here, there should be research to establish to
what extend the fluctuation affects inflation. And the need for further investigation into
the relationship with other variables such as GDP.
41
5.5 Conclusion
In conclusion, this research study examined the effect of fluctuating foreign exchange
rate on Yemeni currency. The research findings (whether correlation analysis results or
regression analysis results) all supported the idea that fluctuating foreign exchange rate
was correlated with Yemeni currency. Also, the analysis indicated that fluctuating
foreign exchange rate has a significant effect on Yemeni currency (significant =.000).
Through surveying actually 148 employees of the banks operating in Sana'a, Yemen
using a questionnaire which adopted its content by a researcher. Aiming for finding a
relationship between foreign exchange rate fluctuations and Yemeni currency, the
correlation analysis results showed that fluctuating foreign exchange rate was correlated
with Yemeni currency. And the regression analysis showed that fluctuating foreign
exchange rate has a significant effect on Yemeni currency which has been supported the
hypotheses of this study.
42
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site: http://marketstreetresearch.com/research-methods/mail-surveys/
Podio help Center. (2016, April 6). Retrieved January 7, 2017, from Podio help Center
Web site: https://help.podio.com/hc/en-us/community/posts/208797148-Likert-
Scale-calculation-
Amadeo, K. (2017, July). What Are Exchange Rates. Retrieved from
https://www.thebalance.com/what-are-exchange-rates-3306083
Bashiri, M. A. (2013). Retrieved from http://almasdaronline.com/article/41136.
Bergen, J. V. (2017). Factors That Influence Exchange Rates. Retrieved from
http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/04/050704.asp.
Central Bank of Sri Lanka. (2006, April ). EXCHANGE RATE. Retrieved from
http://www.cbsl.gov.lk/pics_n_docs/10_pub/_docs/pa/pamphlet/pl_3.pdf.
Chomba, K. (2012). :RESEARCH METHODOLOGY. THE EFFECT OF CAPITAL
STRUCTURE ON THE CORPORATE GOVERNANCE OF COMPANIES
LISTED AT THE NAIROBI SECURITIES EXCHANGE, 26.
compareremit. (2014). Factors that Affect Foreign Exchange Rate. Retrieved from
https://www.compareremit.com/money-transfer-guide/key-factors-affecting-
currency-exchange-rates/.
Danson Musyoki, G. ,. (2012, June). The impact of real exchange rate volatility on
economic growth. academic publishing platforms, pp. 59-75.
Eisenstein, C. (2011). Sacred Economics. In C. Eisenstein, Sacred Economics (pp. 205-
206).
International Economics. (2015). Main Types of Foreign Exchange Rates. Retrieved
from Triple A Learning:
http://www.sanandres.esc.edu.ar/secondary/economics%20packs/international_e
conomics/page_60.htm
43
InvestingAnswers . (2016). National Currency. Retrieved from InvestingAnswers :
http://www.investinganswers.com/financial-dictionary/economics/national-
currency-5839
Investopedia. (2016). Retrieved from
https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/currency.asp.
Jakob, B. (2016). Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Economic , Article 11.
Retrieved from
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LLC, T. (2016). Self-administered+Questionnaire. Retrieved August 18, 2016, from
medanth.wikispaces web site: https://medanth.wikispaces.com/Self-
administered+Questionnaire
M.K, W. (2006, October 20). socialresearchmethods. Retrieved August 18, 2016, from
Types of Surveys: http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/survtype.php
M.Loto. ( 2011, October). Does devaluation improve the trade balance of Nigeria.
Journal of Economics and International Finance, pp. 624-633.
McLeod, S. (2008). Qualitative vs. Quantitative. Retrieved August 8, 2016, from
simplypsychology web site: http://www.simplypsychology.org/qualitative-
quantitative.html
Nasser, A. (2017, march). Rapid currency depreciation. Retrieved from
http://sanaacenter.org/publications/analysis/89.
Ogundipe. ( 2013, September). EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH TO
CONSUMER PRICES IN NIGERIA. European Scientific Journal, pp. 110-123.
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University Publishing Dar.
Rogoff. (2009). Retrieved from
http://tijoss.com/TIJOSS%2018th%20Folder/1Kamal.pdf.
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Tauline. (2008). Exchange rates: dynamics, expectations and adjustment.
Thomas. (2006). . Intraday arbitrage opportunities in foreign exchange and
eurocurrency markets. Retrieved from
http://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke/bitstream/handle/11295/94571/Naiguta_The%20ef
fect%20of%20foreign%20exchange%20rate%20fluctuations%20on%20export
%20earnings.pdf;sequence=1
Wan Abdoh, N. Y. (2016). In Macroeconomic Factors That Influence Exchange Rate
Fluctuation in ASEAN Countries (pp. 89-94). Malaysia: International Academic
Research Journal of Social Science.
Williams, C. (2007). Research Methods. Journal of Business & Economic Research, pp.
65-72.
Zakari, M. (2017, July). The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Foreign Direct
Investment in Nigeria . Journal of Finance and Accounting, pp. 166 -170.
45
APPENDIX
APPENDIX A: English Version of Questionnaire
Questionnaire
2018
Title of the study:
THE EFFECT OF FLUCTUATING FOREIGN EXCHANGE
RATE ON YEMENI CURRENCY
1
Introduction
Dear participant,
As part of undergraduate program, I am currently undertaking a Bachelor degree of
Business Administration in International Business, and completing a research at
International University of Technology Twintech. In order to achieve this objective, I
intend to administer a written survey instrument and you are invited to participate in this
study.
Purpose
The main purpose of this survey is to examine the relationship between Exchange rate
fluctuations and Yemeni currency. In particular, I am interested to know how Exchange
rate fluctuations affect Yemeni currency. The findings of this study will provide
opportunities for all.
Instructions to perform this survey
1. The questionnaire is divided into three sections,
a. General information of the participant.
b. The measurement scale of Exchange rate fluctuations.
c. The measurement scale of Yemeni currency.
2. Confidentiality: I assure you that your response to the questionnaire is to be kept
strictly confidential and will only use for academic purpose.
3. Procedures: To obtain sufficient and meaningful information, it is important to
respond to each question as honestly and accurately as you can.
4. Please complete answering the survey questions within 7 days.
5. Risks: Completion of this questionnaire carries no known or foreseeable risks,
and your participation is completely voluntary.
6. Contact: If you have any questions for me, I may be reached at:
Mobile 967774404494
E-mail (abdalrhmanye15@gmail.com)
Thank you for your assistance and support.
Sincerely
ABDALRHMAN NAGEIB MOHAMMED ALI AL-AWDI
2
Demographic Information
The following questions are about your personal information.
Demographic information
1- Gender:
 Male
 Female
2- Age:
 20- 30
 30 - 40
 41 - 50
 51 +
3- Education:
 Diploma
 Bachelor
 Master
 PhD
4- Position
 Top Manager
 Middle manager
 First line
manager
5- Experience:
 Less than 2 years
 2 – 5 Years
 6 – 10 Years
 Over 10 Years
Exchange rate fluctuations:
Please indicate your level of agreement with the following statements.
Exchange rate fluctuations:
Strongly
disagree
Disagree
Neutral
Agree
Strongly
Agree
1
Exchange rate system imposed by central bank has an
important role in reducing the risk of fluctuations in
exchange rates.
1 2 3 4 5
2
Importing a lot participate in exporting more foreign
currency to other countries. 1 2 3 4 5
3
Lack of foreign investments coming to Yemen participate in
declining foreign exchange currencies. 1 2 3 4 5
4
Exchange rates affect directly in the Yemeni economy.
1 2 3 4 5
5
One of the most important means that affect the exchange
rate are changes in currency supply and demand. 1 2 3 4 5
6
If a country is running very large budget deficits, a decrease
in the value of its exchange rate will follow. 1 2 3 4 5
7
Exchange rates are affected by balance of trade deficits
1 2 3 4 5
Section 2
Section 1
3
Yemeni currency
Please indicate your level of agreement with the following statements
Yemeni currency:
Strongly
disagree
Disagree
Neutral
Agree
Strongly
Agree
1
Yemeni currency is facing deficits, because of the foreign
exchange policy of CB. 1 2 3 4 5
2
The exchange rate has experienced extreme fluctuations.
1 2 3 4 5
3
The sharp decline in the CBY’s foreign reserves has weakened
the national economy, thereby shaking customers’ confidence in
the national currency.
1 2 3 4 5
4
Decline in the CBY’s total foreign reserves brings about wide
fluctuations in exchange rates. 1 2 3 4 5
5
The continuing fall of the Rial against other currencies is
attributed to lack of exports primarily. 1 2 3 4 5
6
Amongst the factors weighing on the rial have been widespread
collapse of economic activity, and the cessation of oil exports. 1 2 3 4 5
7
Political-conflicts, especially armed ones, are almost inevitable
indicators of many economic turmoil ,one of them is currency
deterioration.
1 2 3 4 5
Thank you for your participation
Section 3
4
APPENDIX B: Arabic Version of Questionnaire
‫استمارة‬
‫استبيان‬
2018
:‫اٌذساعخ‬ ْ‫ا‬ٕٛ‫ػ‬
‫ت‬
‫أث‬
‫ي‬
‫ز‬
‫تقلب‬
‫سعز‬
‫الصزف‬
ٌ‫األجىب‬
‫علي‬
‫العملت‬
‫اليمىي‬
‫ت‬
5
:‫مقذمــــــت‬
ٞ‫ض‬٠‫ػض‬
‫اٌّشبسن‬
،
‫ثحث‬ ‫ع‬ٚ‫ِشش‬ َ‫إرّب‬ ‫ِزطٍجبد‬ ِٓ ‫جضء‬ ٟ٘ ‫اٌذساعخ‬ ٖ‫٘ز‬ ْ‫إ‬
‫دسجخ‬ ً١ٌٕ
ٛ٠‫س‬ٌٛ‫اٌجىب‬
‫ط‬
‫االداسح‬ ٟ‫ف‬
‫خ‬١ٌٚ‫اٌذ‬
‫جبِؼخ‬ ٟ‫ف‬
‫ٔزه‬ٛ‫ر‬
‫خ‬١ٌٚ‫اٌذ‬
‫ب‬١‫ج‬ٌٕٛٛ‫ٌٍزى‬
ٟٔ‫فئ‬ ‫ذف‬ٌٙ‫ا‬ ‫٘زا‬ ‫إٔجبص‬ ً‫ألج‬ٚ .
‫٘زا‬ ‫ز‬١‫رٕف‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫أسغت‬
ْ‫ب‬١‫االعزج‬
‫ِبد‬ٍٛ‫اٌّؼ‬ ٍٝ‫ػ‬ ‫ي‬ٛ‫ٌٍحص‬
ٟٔ‫ا‬ٚ
ٌٝ‫إ‬ ُ‫رى‬ٛ‫ثذػ‬ ‫أرششف‬
‫االشزشان‬
ٟ‫ف‬
‫٘زا‬ ‫رؼجئخ‬
ْ‫ب‬١‫االعزج‬
.
‫هذف‬
:‫الذراست‬
ٟ‫غ‬١‫اٌشئ‬ ‫ذف‬ٌٙ‫ا‬
‫٘زا‬ ِٓ
ْ‫ب‬١‫االعزج‬
ٛ٘
‫اخزجبس‬
‫ش‬١‫رأث‬
‫رمٍت‬
‫عؼش‬
‫اٌصشف‬
ٟ‫األجٕج‬
ٍٝ‫ػ‬
‫اٌؼٍّخ‬
‫خ‬١ّٕ١ٌ‫ا‬
.
ْ‫إ‬
َ‫اال٘زّب‬
ٍٝ‫ػ‬ ‫زشوض‬٠
‫ش‬١‫رأث‬ ‫اخزجبس‬
‫رمٍت‬
‫عؼش‬
‫اٌصشف‬
ٟ‫األجٕج‬
ٍٝ‫ػ‬
‫اٌؼٍّخ‬
‫خ‬١ّٕ١ٌ‫ا‬
.
‫هذا‬ ‫تىفيذ‬ ‫أجل‬ ‫مه‬ ‫توصياث‬
‫االستبيان‬
:
1
-
ْ‫ب‬١‫االعزج‬
ٍٝ‫ػ‬ ٞٛ‫حز‬٠
‫ثالثخ‬
:َ‫ألغب‬
‫أ‬
.
.‫اٌّشبسن‬ ٓ‫ػ‬ ‫ػبِخ‬ ‫ِبد‬ٍٛ‫ِؼ‬
‫ة‬
.
‫رمٍت‬
‫عؼش‬
‫اٌصشف‬
ٟ‫األجٕج‬
.
‫ج‬
.
‫اٌؼٍّخ‬
‫خ‬١ّٕ١ٌ‫ا‬
.
2
-
:‫خ‬١‫ص‬ٛ‫اٌخص‬
‫ب‬ٙ‫وشف‬ َ‫ػذ‬ٚ ‫ِبد‬ٍٛ‫اٌّؼ‬ ‫خ‬١‫ص‬ٛ‫خص‬ ْ‫ضّب‬ ٍٝ‫ػ‬ ‫رؼزّذ‬ ‫اٌذساعخ‬ ٖ‫٘ز‬ ‫بعخ‬١‫ع‬ ْ‫إ‬
‫فمط‬ ّٟ٠‫االوبد‬ ‫اٌجحث‬ ‫ألغشاض‬ ‫ِخصصخ‬ ‫ب‬ٙٔ‫أ‬ ‫ث‬١‫ح‬
،
‫غذ‬١ٌ ‫اٌّشزشن‬ ‫خ‬٠ٛ٘ ْ‫أ‬ ‫وّب‬
.‫ثخ‬ٍٛ‫ِط‬
3
-
:‫خ‬١‫ج‬ٌّٕٙ‫ا‬
ٍٝ‫ػ‬ ‫ي‬ٛ‫اٌحص‬ ْ‫ضّب‬ ً‫ألج‬
‫اعزجبثخ‬
،‫اٌذساعخ‬ ‫ألغشاض‬ ‫اٌّشزشن‬ ِٓ ‫فبػٍخ‬
ٌّ‫ا‬ ‫لذس‬ ‫مخ‬١‫دل‬ٚ ‫ِؼجشح‬ ‫بٔبد‬١‫اٌج‬ ْٛ‫رى‬ ْ‫ا‬ ٛ‫ٔشج‬
.‫غزطبع‬
4
-
ٝ‫شج‬٠
ٍٝ‫ػ‬ ‫اإلجبثخ‬
ْ‫ب‬١‫االعزج‬
‫خالي‬
7
.َ‫ب‬٠‫أ‬
5
-
‫ال‬
ٍٝ‫ػ‬ ٞٛ‫رٕط‬ ‫ِخبطش‬ ‫خ‬٠‫أ‬ ‫جذ‬ٛ‫ر‬
‫االعزجبثخ‬
‫ؼزجش‬٠ ‫ب‬ٙ١‫ف‬ ‫االشزشان‬ ْ‫أ‬ ‫وّب‬ ‫اٌذساعخ‬ ٖ‫ز‬ٌٙ
.ً‫ب‬١‫ػ‬ٛ‫ط‬
6
-
‫مخ‬٠‫طش‬
:‫االرصبي‬
‫ٌغشض‬ ‫ثبٌجبحث‬ ‫ثبالرصبي‬ ‫سغجذ‬ ‫ارا‬
‫االعزفغبس‬
‫ثبٌطشق‬ ‫رٌه‬ ‫فجئِىبٔه‬
: ‫خ‬١ٌ‫اٌزب‬
:ً٠‫ثب‬ِٛ
774404494
ُ٠‫اٌىش‬ ُ‫ٔى‬ٚ‫رؼب‬ ُ‫ٌى‬ ‫ٔشىش‬
ٖ‫٘ز‬ ‫إٔجبح‬ ٟ‫ف‬
،‫اٌذساعخ‬
ً‫العود‬ ٌ‫عل‬ ‫محمذ‬ ‫وجيب‬ ‫عبذالزحمه‬
6
‫عامت‬ ‫معلوماث‬
:‫ثه‬ ‫اٌخبصخ‬ ‫ِبد‬ٍٛ‫ثبٌّؼ‬ ‫رزؼٍك‬ ‫خ‬١ٌ‫اٌزب‬ ‫األعئٍخ‬
5
-
:‫الخبزة‬ ‫سىواث‬

ٓ١‫عٕز‬ ِٓ ً‫أل‬

2
–
5
‫اد‬ٕٛ‫ع‬

6
–
10
‫اد‬ٕٛ‫ع‬

ِٓ ‫أوثش‬
10
‫اد‬ٕٛ‫ع‬
4
-
‫الوظيفت‬
:

‫ش‬٠‫ِذ‬
‫ب‬١ٍ‫اٌؼ‬ ‫اإلداسح‬ ٜٛ‫ِغز‬ ٟ‫ف‬

‫ش‬٠‫ِذ‬
ٝ‫عط‬ٌٛ‫ا‬ ‫اإلداسح‬ ٜٛ‫ِغز‬ ٟ‫ف‬

‫ظف‬ِٛ
3
-
ٌ‫التعليم‬ ‫المستوى‬
:

ٍَٛ‫دث‬

‫ظ‬٠‫س‬ٌٛ‫ثىب‬

‫ش‬١‫ِبجغز‬

‫ساح‬ٛ‫دوز‬
2
-
:‫العمز‬

20
-
30

30
-
40

41
-
50

50
+
1
-
:‫الجىس‬

‫روش‬

ٝ‫أٔث‬
‫تقلباث‬
‫أسعار‬
‫الصزف‬
‫اٌّخزبسح‬ ‫اإلجبثخ‬ ‫ي‬ٛ‫ح‬ ‫دائشح‬ ‫ضغ‬ٚ ٝ‫شج‬٠
ً
‫ا‬
‫جذ‬
‫افك‬ِٛ
‫افك‬ِٛ
‫ــذ‬٠‫ِحب‬
‫ش‬١‫غ‬
‫افك‬ِٛ
‫افك‬ِٛ
‫ش‬١‫غ‬
‫ثشذح‬
‫تقلباث‬
‫أسعار‬
‫الصزف‬
5 4 3 2 1
‫ٍؼت‬٠
َ‫ٔظب‬
‫عؼش‬
‫اٌصشف‬
ٞ‫اٌز‬
ٗ‫فشض‬٠
‫اٌجٕه‬
ٞ‫اٌّشوض‬
ً‫ا‬‫س‬ٚ‫د‬
‫ّب‬ِٙ
ٟ‫ف‬
‫ف‬١‫اٌزخف‬
ِٓ
‫ِخبطش‬
‫رمٍجبد‬
‫أعؼبس‬
‫اٌصشف‬
. 1
5 4 3 2 1
ُ٘‫غب‬٠
‫شاد‬١‫االعز‬
‫ش‬١‫اٌىث‬
ٟ‫ف‬
‫ش‬٠‫رصذ‬
‫ذ‬٠‫اٌّض‬
ِٓ
‫اٌؼٍّخ‬
‫خ‬١‫األجٕج‬
ٌٝ‫إ‬
‫ي‬ٚ‫اٌذ‬
ٜ‫األخش‬ 2
5 4 3 2 1
ُ٘‫غب‬٠
‫أخفبض‬
‫االعزثّبساد‬
‫خ‬١‫األجٕج‬
‫اٌمبدِخ‬
ٌٝ‫إ‬
ّٓ١ٌ‫ا‬
ٟ‫ف‬
‫أخفبض‬
‫خ‬١ّ‫و‬
‫ػّالد‬
‫اٌصشف‬
‫خ‬١‫األجٕج‬ 3
5 4 3 2 1
‫رؤثش‬
‫ِؼذالد‬
‫اٌصشف‬
ٟ‫ف‬
‫االلزصبد‬
ّٟٕ١ٌ‫ا‬
ً‫ثشى‬
‫ِجبشش‬
4
5 4 3 2 1
ِٓ
ُ٘‫أ‬
ً‫عبئ‬ٌٛ‫ا‬
ٟ‫اٌز‬
‫رؤثش‬
ٟ‫ف‬
‫ِؼذي‬
‫اٌصشف‬
ٟ٘
‫شاد‬١‫اٌزغ‬
ٟ‫ف‬
‫اٌؼشض‬
‫اٌطٍت‬ٚ
ٍٝ‫ػ‬
‫اٌؼٍّخ‬ 5
5 4 3 2 1
‫إرا‬
‫رؼشضذ‬
‫ٌخ‬ٚ‫اٌذ‬
ٌٝ‫إ‬
‫ػجض‬
‫ش‬١‫وج‬
ٟ‫ف‬
‫ب‬ٙ‫اصٔز‬ِٛ
ْ‫فئ‬
‫رٌه‬
ٗ‫زجؼ‬١‫ع‬
‫أخفبض‬
ٟ‫ف‬
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‫اٌّخزبسح‬ ‫اإلجبثخ‬ ‫ي‬ٛ‫ح‬ ‫دائشح‬ ‫ضغ‬ٚ ٝ‫شج‬٠
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5 4 3 2 1
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9
5 4 3 2 1
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.
10
5 4 3 2 1
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. 11
5 4 3 2 1
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‫اٌصبدساد‬ 12
5 4 3 2 1
ِٓ
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ًِ‫ا‬ٛ‫اٌؼ‬
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‫بس‬١ٙٔ‫اال‬
‫اعغ‬ٌٛ‫ا‬
‫ٌٍٕشبط‬
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‫لف‬ٛ‫ر‬ٚ
‫صبدساد‬
‫إٌفط‬
. 13
5 4 3 2 1
‫اٌصشاػبد‬
،‫خ‬١‫بع‬١‫اٌغ‬
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‫ِؤششاد‬
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. 14
‫ٔشىشن‬
ً‫ا‬‫جذ‬
‫ٔه‬ٚ‫رؼب‬ ٍٝ‫ػ‬
ُ٠‫اٌىش‬
‫ِؼٕب‬
.
‫الثالث‬ ‫القسم‬

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The Effect Of Fluctuating Foreign Exchange Rate On Yemeni Currency ‫‬‬.pdf

  • 1. i THE EFFECT OF FLUCTUATING FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE ON YEMENI CURRENCY ABDALRHMAN NAGEIB MOHAMMED ALI AL-AWDI FACULTY OF BUSINESS AND FINANCE INTERNATIONAL UNIVERSITY OF TECHNOLOGY TWINTECH 2018
  • 2. ii THE EFFECT OF FLUCTUATING FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE ON YEMENI CURRENCY By ABDALRHMAN NAGEIB MOHAMMED ALI AL-AWDI Bachelor’s Project Submitted in Partial Fulfillment of the Requirements for the Degree of Bachelor of Business Administration in International Business Faculty of Business and Finance International University of Technology Twintech 2018
  • 3. iii DECLARATION Name : ABDALRHMAN NAGEIB MOHAMMED ALI AL-AWDI Matric. Number : 12531 I hereby declare that this Bachelor’s Project is the result of my own work, except for quotations and summaries, which have been duly acknowledged. Signature: _________________________ Date: ______________________
  • 4. iv ABSTRACT Exchange rates play an increasingly significant role in any economy. This study investigated the relationships between fluctuating foreign exchange rate and Yemeni currency. The study made use of a survey questionnaire distributed to 180 Yemeni bank employees, 148 usable questionnaires were returned. After which data was analyzed by Used SPSS to conducted the regression and correlation analysis. The study findings showed that the fluctuating foreign exchange rate was correlated with Yemeni currency Moreover, The Fluctuating foreign exchange rate has a significant effect on Yemeni currency. Certain suggestion and implications of the study were also discussed.
  • 5. v ACKNOWLEDGMENTS First of all, I present my thanks to Allah. Second, I would like to thank and from the bottom of my heart, Dr. Kamal Tamim for all the support and assistance he rendered me during the whole process of doing my Bachelor’s research. Finally, I would like to thank Dr. Osama Maarouf who taught us Research Methodology, my family members for believing in my ability to finish this academic project.
  • 6. vi TABLE OF CONTENTS DECLARATION.............................................................................................................iii ABSTRACT.....................................................................................................................iv ACKNOWLEDGMENTS ................................................................................................ v TABLE OF CONTENTS.................................................................................................vi LIST OF FIGURES .......................................................................................................... x LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS..........................................................................................xi CHAPTER ONE: INTRODUCTION........................................................................... 1 1.1 Introduction.............................................................................................................. 1 1.2 Problem Statement................................................................................................... 3 1.3 Research Questions.................................................................................................. 3 1.4 Research Objectives................................................................................................. 3 1.5 Research Contribution ............................................................................................. 3 1.6 Limitations Of The Study ........................................................................................ 4 1.7 Definition Of Terms................................................................................................. 4 1.8 Research Organizing................................................................................................ 4 CHAPTER TWO: LITERATURE REVIEW AND HYPOTHESES DEVELOPMENT ........................................................................................................... 6 2.1 Introduction.............................................................................................................. 6 2.2 Currency................................................................................................................... 6 2.2.1 THE IMPORTANCE OF LOCAL CURRENCY ........................................................... 7 2.2.2 THE BENEFITS OF LOCAL CURRENCY................................................................. 7 2.2.3 PREVIOUS STUDIES ON CURRENCY..................................................................... 8 2.3 Fluctuating Foreign Exchange Rate......................................................................... 8 2.3.1 IMPORTANCE OF THE EXCHANGE RATE ............................................................. 9 2.3.2 ADVANTAGES OF EXCHANGE RATE SYSTEMS .................................................. 10 2.3.3 MAIN CAUSES THAT AFFECT FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATES ............................... 10 2.3.4 EXCHANGE RATE REGIMES............................................................................... 11 2.3.5 PREVIOUS STUDIES ON FLUCTUATING FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE................... 13 2.4 Previous Studies On The Relationship Between Fluctuating Foreign Exchange Rate And Currency: ........................................................................................................ 13 2.5 Research Framework ............................................................................................. 14 2.6 Hypotheses Development ...................................................................................... 14 2.7 Summary............................................................................................................... 15 CHAPTER THREE: RESEARCH METHODOLOGY ........................................... 16 3.1 Introduction............................................................................................................ 16 3.2 Research Design .................................................................................................... 16
  • 7. vii 3.2.1 RESEARCH APPROACH ...................................................................................... 17 3.2.2 PURPOSE OF THE STUDY .................................................................................. 18 3.2.3 TYPE OF INVESTIGATION .................................................................................. 18 3.2.4 EXTENT OF RESEARCHER INTERFERENCE......................................................... 19 3.2.5 STUDY SETTING ................................................................................................ 19 3.3 Population And Sampling...................................................................................... 19 3.3.1 POPULATION ..................................................................................................... 20 3.3.2 SAMPLE SIZE..................................................................................................... 20 3.4 Instrumentation ...................................................................................................... 20 3.4.1 YEMENI CURRENCY MEASUREMENT ................................................................ 22 3.4.2 FLUCTUATING FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE MEASUREMENT .............................. 22 3.5 Data Collection ...................................................................................................... 23 3.5.1 INSTRUMENTATION TRANSLATION.................................................................... 24 3.5.2 ADMINISTRATION OF QUESTIONNAIRE ............................................................. 24 3.6 Scale Reliability..................................................................................................... 25 3.7 Data Analysis......................................................................................................... 25 3.8 Summary................................................................................................................ 26 CHAPTER FOUR: DATA ANALYSIS...................................................................... 27 4.1 Introduction............................................................................................................ 27 4.2 Data Screening....................................................................................................... 27 4.3 Sample Profile........................................................................................................ 28 4.3.1 GENDER............................................................................................................. 28 4.3.2 AGE ................................................................................................................... 29 4.3.3 EDUCATION ....................................................................................................... 30 4.3.4 POSITION ........................................................................................................... 31 4.3.5 EXPERIENCE....................................................................................................... 32 4.4 Descriptive Statistics.............................................................................................. 33 4.4.1 FLUCTUATING FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE ......................................................... 34 4.4.1 YEMENI CURRENCY............................................................................................ 35 4.5 Correlation Analysis .............................................................................................. 36 4.6 Regression Analysis............................................................................................... 36 4.7 Hypotheses Testing.................................................................................................. 37 4.8 Summary................................................................................................................ 38 CHAPTER FIVE: DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION.......................................... 39 5.1 Introduction............................................................................................................ 39 5.2 Discussion.............................................................................................................. 39 5.3 Recommendations.................................................................................................. 40 5.3.1 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR GOVERNMENT.......................................................... 40 5.3.2 RECOMMENDATIONS FOR PRIVATE SECTOR (BANKS)....................................... 40
  • 8. viii 5.4 Future Research ..................................................................................................... 40 5.5 Conclusion ............................................................................................................. 41 REFERENCES.............................................................................................................. 42 APPENDIX.................................................................................................................... 45 APPENDIX A: ENGLISH VERSION OF QUESTIONNAIRE .............................................. 45 APPENDIX B: ARABIC VERSION OF QUESTIONNAIRE .................................................. 4
  • 9. ix LIST OF TABLES Table No. Page Table 3.1: Key differences between qualitative and quantitative research. 17 Table 3.2: The Targeted Banks 20 Table 3.3 Five Likert Scale 21 Table 3.4: Yemeni Currency Measurement 22 Table 3.5: Fluctuating Foreign Exchange Rate Measurement 22 Table 3.6: Reliability Statistics 25 Table 4.1 Frequency Analysis of Gender 28 Table 4.2: Age Frequency Analysis 29 Table 4.3: Education Frequency Analysis 30 Table 4.4: Position Frequency Analysis 31 Table 4.5: Experience Frequency Analysis 32 Table 4.6: Verbal evaluation 33 Table 4.7: fluctuating foreign exchange rate Descriptive Statistics 34 Table 4.8: Yemeni currency Descriptive Statistics 35 Table 4.9: Correlation Analysis 36 Table 4.10:Model Summary 37 Table 4.11:Coefficientsa 37 Table 4. 12 Summary of Hypotheses Testing Results 37
  • 10. x LIST OF FIGURES Figure No. Page Figure 2.1 Theoretical framework 14 Figure 4.1:Gender Frequency Analysis 28 Figure 4.2: Age Frequency Analysis 29 Figure 4.3: Education Frequency Analysis 30 Figure 4.4: Position Frequency Analysis 31 Figure 4.5: Experience Frequency Analysis 32
  • 11. xi LIST OF ABBREVIATIONS SPSS Statistical Package for the Social Sciences CBY Central Bank of Yemen GDP Gross Domestic Product IMF International Monetary Fund
  • 12. 1 CHAPTER ONE INTRODUCTION 1.1 Introduction The value of the currency of each country can be managed using different mechanisms. These mechanisms narrow down to the exchange rate regime which applies to the currency. The currency of a given country can either be said to be free floating, fixed or a hybrid. A free floating currency operates in a laissez faire kind of a market. Here, the currency is left to respond to the market forces. It is allowed to fluctuate against other currencies in response to the demand and supply forces. However, there are instances where the central banks have to intervene in order to regulate the appreciation and depreciation of the currencies. In such a case, these systems are called managed float and they are different to the system where no intervention is done at all. In cases where there is no intervention, it is called free float (Tauline, 2008). In Yemen, The Yemeni riyal is the national currency of the Republic of Yemen. After the revolution of 26 September 1962, the Ministry of Treasury issued the Republican riyal, the first national currency in late 1963. In the south, after the revolution of October 14, 1963, the South Arabian Currency Authority was founded, Which put the Yemeni dinar to trade in April 1965 as the first national currency for the south of the country. The dinar and the riyal continued to trade together until 1996, when the dinar was withdrawn from circulation in March 1996. Since June 11, 1996, the riyal has become the only currency of Yemen (Bashiri, 2013). Exchange rate fluctuation is the change in value of one currency against another currency due to various economic factors. In simple sense, the value of one currency will be appreciated against another if the demand for that particular currency is higher (John Pradeep & Rajeesh Kunnampuram, 2002).
  • 13. 2 Changes in exchange rate have pervasive effects, with consequences for prices, wages, interest rates, production levels, and employment opportunities (Rogoff, 2009). The exchange rate can be affected by any political or economic disturbance and It is a reflection of the financial health of a country or region, some reasons is responsible for fluctuating in exchange rate for instance Inflation rates, interest rates, country’s balance of payments, government debt, political stability & performance, recession, and speculation ,all of these factors determine the foreign exchange rate fluctuations (compareremit, 2014). In Yemen, The exchange rate of the Yemeni Riyal against the US Dollar witnessed significantly high changes during the recent period. Economic pressures stemming from the three-year-old war and regional military intervention in Yemen have taken their toll on the value of the country’s currency. Between early 2015 and 2017. Amongst the factors weighing on the riyal have been widespread collapse of economic activity, government services, security and humanitarian conditions, the cessation of oil exports (previously the largest source of foreign currency and government revenue) and the Central Bank of Yemen’s (CBY) decreasing ability to intervene in the market, given its depleted foreign currency holdings. The CBY has also been experiencing a severe riyal liquidity crisis (Nasser, 2017). Aside from factors such as interest rates and inflation, the exchange rate is one of the most important determinants of a country's relative level of economic health. Exchange rates play a vital role in a country's level of trade. We should sketch out how exchange rate movements affect a nation's trading relationships with other nations. A higher currency makes a country's exports more expensive and imports cheaper in foreign markets. A lower currency makes a country's exports cheaper and its imports more expensive in foreign markets. A higher exchange rate can be expected to lower the country's balance of trade, while a lower exchange rate would increase it (Bergen, 2017).
  • 14. 3 1.2 Problem Statement The study is representing the Yemeni riyals exchange rate against the dollar is facing in these days huge problems in the current situations this leads to a rise in the prices of all the imported commodities and declining currency’s purchasing power, which is equal to the proportion of the depreciation of the riyals against the dollar. Despite the facts that others researches have not studied the fluctuating foreign exchange rate on Yemeni currency Thus it is important to conduct such research. 1.3 Research Questions In attempting to examine the impact of fluctuating foreign exchange rate on Yemeni currency. This study aims to answer the following questions: i. What is the relationship between fluctuating foreign exchange rate and Yemeni currency? ii. How fluctuating foreign exchange rate affect Yemeni currency? 1.4 Research Objectives This study aims to examine the impact of fluctuating foreign exchange rate on Yemeni currency and specifically achieving the following objectives. i. To identify the nature of the relationship between fluctuating foreign exchange rate and Yemeni currency. ii. To examine the effect of fluctuating foreign exchange rate on Yemeni currency. 1.5 Research Contribution The contribution of this study consists of theoretical and practical perspectives. This study contributes to the body of knowledge from theoretical point of view due to some reasons. This study investigates the effect of fluctuating foreign exchange rate on Yemeni currency and new researchers who come after this research will get the total benefits from these research. In addition, this study contributes to the practical perspectives through different ways The study will help exporters and importers alike investors and government to know the behavior of the exchange rate as it directly or indirectly affects them and These study
  • 15. 4 would identify those economic variables that are mostly affected by instability in exchange rate. 1.6 Limitations of the Study The scope of this research was limited to examining the impact of fluctuating foreign exchange rate on Yemeni currency. The scope of study was limited and it has to be carried out in the Yemeni banks in Sana'a. In addition, this study was also faced with constraints of gathering information, due to the current situation, has not been able to access the branches of the Yemeni bank in other Yemeni cities. 1.7 Definition of Terms The following definitions describe the key terms that are adopted for this study: i. Foreign Exchange Rate Fluctuations Is the change in value of one currency against another currency due to various economic factors (John Pradeep & Rajeesh Kunnampuram, 2002). ii. Yemeni currency The Yemeni riyal is the national currency of the Republic of Yemen. After the revolution of 26 September 1962, the Ministry of Treasury issued the Republican riyal, the first national currency in late 1963 (Bashiri, 2013) . 1.8 Research Organizing This study constitutes a five chapter sequence: Chapter 1 discusses on the introduction of the study, it discusses the problem statement, research questions, and research objectives, indicates the research contribution and limitation of the study, defines the terms of the research, and finally indicates the research organizing plan. Chapter 2 discusses the introduction of the literature review for both fluctuating foreign exchange and Yemeni currency. It also explains the relationship between the fluctuating foreign exchange rate and Yemen currency, finally, it discusses research framework develop hypothesis, and summarize the overall chapter.
  • 16. 5 Chapter 3 discusses the research design, population and sample size, the instrumentation used to measure both fluctuating foreign exchange rate and Yemeni currency, data collection methods and administration, scale reliability, data analysis software, and finally summarizes the overall chapter. Chapter 4 discuss the overall data analysis that includes data screening, sample profile, and descriptive statists of fluctuating foreign exchange rate and Yemen currency. It also details correlation analysis, regression analysis, and hypothesis testing and the summary of data analysis. Chapter 5 includes a simple introduction, the result discussion, recommendations, future research recommendations and finally the conclusion of the research.
  • 17. 6 CHAPTER TWO LITERATURE REVIEW AND HYPOTHESES DEVELOPMENT 2.1 Introduction This chapter begins with the definitions of different researchers, importance, and the benefit of both variables The fluctuating foreign exchange rate and Yemeni currency. Also, determinants of foreign exchange rate fluctuations, and Exchange Rate Regimes. Moreover, it will explain the factors of the study based on the previous studies that are related to this study. And it will include the previous studies on the relationship between The fluctuating foreign exchange rate and Yemeni currency. As well as, the research framework to examine that relationship between the two variables. In addition, it consists of the hypotheses development, which is based on the extant literature review and theoretical development, that will be discuss before the draw of the framework. Finally, it concludes with a summary that review what the chapter discussed. 2.2 Currency Currency is a generally accepted form of money, including coins and paper notes, which is issued by a government and circulated within an economy. Used as a medium of exchange for goods and services (Investopedia, 2016). National Currency is defined as the currency or legal tender issued by a nation's central bank or monetary authority. The national currency of a nation is usually the predominant currency used for most financial transactions in that country (Investopedia, 2016). The Yemeni riyal is the national currency of the Republic of Yemen. After the revolution of 26 September 1962, the Ministry of Treasury issued the Republican riyal, the first national currency in late 1963 (Bashiri, 2013).
  • 18. 7 2.2.1 The Importance Of Local Currency Enhance national pride and solidarity every country has its own currency. It represents the collective identity of a nation. The very existence of a national currency is a tremendous source of pride for all citizens. In addition, it Promote price stability is managed by adjusting money supply in the economy. As with any goods, an over- supply of money in circulation would diminish its value, leading to inflation. Similarly, an under-supply of money in circulation would increase its value, leading to deflation, and also Reduce transaction costs Using one national currency in all domestic economic transactions would help substantially reduce the costs for both buyers and sellers. In addition, the Local Currency Promote infrastructure & social welfare Greater use of the local currency can allow the government to better manage its budget to meet the needs of investments in infrastructure. Furthermore, Accumulate foreign reserves in a country where the national currency is exclusively used in the economy, foreign currencies that flow into the country must be converted into the national currency before conducting any domestic transactions. The role of the central bank is to absorb those foreign currencies in exchange for its national currency (InvestingAnswers , 2016). 2.2.2 The Benefits Of Local Currency The Local currency is often proposed as a way to revitalize local economies, insulate them from global market forces, and re-create community. Local currency offers several economic benefits: It encourages people to shop at local businesses since only they are willing to accept and use local currency. Also, It increases the local money supply, which increases demand and stimulates local production and employment. As well as, It keeps money within the community since it cannot be extracted to distant corporations. In addition, It facilitates the circulation of goods and services among people who may not have sufficient access to national currency but who may have time and skills to offer (Eisenstein, 2011).
  • 19. 8 2.2.3 Previous Studies On Currency Mohamed Al-Afandi, (2008) examined the economic and social impacts resulting from floating the Yemeni currency. The study found that policy of floating the currency coupled with some other policies has led to declining growth rates. Because of the increase in imports and the limited non-oil exports, demand for both imports and exports has been inelastic, thus causing a limited effect on the balance of trade and the balance of payments. Extremely high inflation rates during 1996-2007 have resulted in declining real wages and dropping living standards. It is a quantitative study. In another related study, (M.Loto, 2011) studied the effect of devaluation/depreciation of the Nigerian naira on the country’s trade balance for the period 1986 to 2008. The study adopts the elasticity approach to the balance of payments adjustment. The study investigates the effect of exchange rate devaluation as a policy on the Nigerian economy’s Trade for the period 1986 to 2008. This study relied on secondary source of data in a quantitative way. The data covered a period of twenty-five years starting from 1986 through 2008. The study concluded that devaluation/depreciation cannot improve the trade balance in the Nigerian economy. Devaluation/depreciation can only benefit countries that are originally export based before the devaluation /depreciation of a currency. Economies that are import dependent like Nigeria can hardly benefit from the devaluation/depreciation of its currency. 2.3 Fluctuating Foreign Exchange Rate The exchange rate reflects the number of units of the national currency that can be exchanged for one unit of foreign currency or is the number of units that must be paid from a particular currency for a unit of another currency (Osama Al-Fouli, 2006), it is the price at which one country’s currency exchanges for another country’s currency. The exchange rate plays a pivotal role in determining the price of a nation’s product in the rest of the world and domestic price of goods imported from abroad (Thomas, 2006). In other words, the Exchange rate can be defined as the amount of one currency you can exchange for other currencies (Amadeo, 2017).
  • 20. 9 Exchange rate fluctuation is defined as the risk related to unexpected movements in exchange rates. Macroeconomic variables such as interest rates, inflation, the balance of payments, tax rates, imports, exports, gross domestic product (GDP) and the money supply is the random effect of exchange rates. The unstable of macroeconomic variables depend on the current economic situation in their country (Wan Abdoh, 2016). Also, Exchange rate fluctuation refers to the extent to which prices of currencies tend to fluctuate over time (Cote, 2005). 2.3.1 Importance Of The Exchange Rate The importance of the exchange rate differs from country to country. Generally, for closed economies, its importance is less. For small, open economies, however, the exchange rate is very important as it affects the prices of exports as well as imports. While a country’s exports depend on the purchasing power of the rest of the world and the price competition of the goods and services it exports, its imports are dependent on the income and spending power of its residents and the competitiveness with imported products in relation to domestically produced goods and services. A trade deficit, which results from an excess of imports over exports, tends to bring downward pressure on the domestic currency (depreciation of the exchange rate). Since the exchange rate determines the value of foreign goods, services and financial assets that can be purchased with domestic currency, if the domestic currency depreciates against other currencies, imports become more expensive in terms of domestic currency. Whereas the higher import prices in terms of domestic currency will reduce the purchasing power of domestic consumers, domestic producers will benefit from becoming more competitive against imports, both in domestic and export markets. This would lead to the substitution of imports through increased domestic production. The higher demand for domestic goods and services to be used for producing goods to be exported would increase the domestic prices. This way, the exchange rate serves to allocate resources between those goods and services that can be traded internationally and those that are sold only in the domestic market. In addition to the trade balance and inflation, exchange rates also influence foreign investments as investors decide on the composition of their investment portfolios based on the prevailing as well as expected exchange and interest rates. Exchange rates also affect a range of other factors ranging from worker remittances to the reserve position of a country. The value of a country’s exchange rate also depends on both, domestic and foreign monetary conditions. An
  • 21. 10 unexpected increase in domestic interest rates, for example, could attract capital inflows and would lead to an appreciation of the domestic currency in the foreign exchange market of an open economy (Central Bank of Sri Lanka, 2006). 2.3.2 Advantages Of Exchange Rate Systems Advantages of fixed exchange rates: Certainty: with a fixed exchange rate, firms will always know the exchange rate and this makes trade and investment less risky. Also, The absence of speculation: with a fixed exchange rate, there will be no speculation if people believe that the rate will stay fixed with no revaluation or devaluation. In addition, Constraint on government policy: if the exchange rate is fixed, then the government may be unable to pursue extreme or irresponsible macroeconomic policies as these would cause a run on the foreign exchange reserves and this would be unsustainable in the medium-term. Advantages of floating exchange rates: Protection from external shocks: if the exchange rate is free to float, then it can change in response to external shocks like oil price rises. Also, Lack of policy constraints: the government is free with a floating exchange rate system to pursue the policies they feel are appropriate for the domestic economy without worrying about them conflicting with their external policy. In addition, Correction of the balance of payments deficits: a floating exchange rate can depreciate to compensate for a balance of payments deficit. This will help restore the competitiveness of exports (International Economics, 2015). 2.3.3 Main causes that Affect Foreign Exchange Rates Inflation Rates: Changes in market inflation cause changes in currency exchange rates. A country with a lower inflation rate than another's will see an appreciation in the value of its currency. The prices of goods and services increase at a slower rate where the inflation is low. A country with a consistently lower inflation rate exhibits a rising currency value while a country with higher inflation typically sees depreciation in its currency and is usually accompanied by higher interest rates. Also, Interest Rates: Changes in interest rate affect currency value and dollar exchange rate. Forex rates, interest rates, and inflation are all correlated. Increases in interest rates cause a country's currency to appreciate because higher interest rates provide higher rates to lenders,
  • 22. 11 thereby attracting more foreign capital, which causes a rise in exchange rates. Furthermore, Country’s Balance of Payments: a country’s current account reflects the balance of trade and earnings on foreign investment. It consists of total number of transactions including its exports, imports, debt, etc. A deficit in the current account due to spending more of its currency on importing products than it is earning through the sale of exports causes depreciation. The Balance of payments fluctuates exchange rate of its domestic currency. Moreover, Terms of Trade: Related to current accounts and balance of payments, the terms of trade are the ratio of export prices to import prices. A country's terms of trade improve if its exports prices rise at a greater rate than its imports prices. This results in higher revenue, which causes a higher demand for the country's currency and an increase in its currency's value. This results in an appreciation of exchange rate. In addition, Political Stability & Performance: a country's political state and economic performance can affect its currency strength. A country with less risk for political turmoil is more attractive to foreign investors, as a result, drawing investment away from other countries with more political and economic stability. Increase in foreign capital, in turn, leads to an appreciation in the value of its domestic currency. A country with sound financial and trade policy does not give any room for uncertainty in the value of its currency. But, a country prone to political confusions may see a depreciation in exchange rates. Finally the Speculation: If a country's currency value is expected to rise, investors will demand more of that currency in order to make a profit in the near future. As a result, the value of the currency will rise due to the increase in demand. With this increase in currency value comes a rise in the exchange rate as well (compareremit, 2014). 2.3.4 Exchange Rate Regimes Countries have a wide scale of exchange rate regimes to choose from, ranging from fixed (conventional peg) to freely floating exchange rate. The regime type a country chooses should depend on the current economic situation, size of the economy, the types of exchange rates other countries are using, and the long-term economic policy goal. For example, price stability with trade partners is crucial for an open economy that has a large portion of its gross domestic product (GDP) dependent on exports. Therefore, this country will be less likely to adopt a freely floating exchange rate where price volatility is potentially high and can discourage international trade. According to the International Monetary Fund classification, exchange rate arrangements can be
  • 23. 12 classified into four categories: hard pegs or fixed regimes (such as currency board arrangements), soft pegs or intermediate regimes (such as crawling pegs, stabilized arrangements, and craw-like arrangements), floating regimes (such as managed floating and free floating), and residuals (IMF, 2013). Under fixed exchange rate, the local currency is either pegged against another currency or a basket of other currencies. The main goal of this system is to achieve stability in the value of currency through fixing it against a stronger and more stable currency (or currencies). The main advantage of this system is that the currency does not fluctuate according to market conditions, and therefore creates a stable and predictable business climate for investments and trade between the two currencies. However, the main drawback of pegged exchange rates is that it is very difficult for government to conduct independent monetary policy and to liberalize capital markets at the same time (Thirlwall, 2003). For instance, capital outflows will result in currency depreciation. In order to tackle this, the central bank needs to raise domestic interest rates, which eventually depresses the domestic economy. The reverse situation occurs with capital inflows. Therefore, the only way for an economy to maintain domestic and external equilibrium is either to control capital movements or to allow the exchange rate to float. Within flexible exchange rate regime, the value of the currency is allowed to fluctuate based on the supply and demand of that particular currency in the exchange market. One of the advantages of floating regime is the automatic adjustment of balance of payments, whose deficit or surplus is corrected by appreciation or depreciation of the currency (Ghosh & Wolf, 2002). The main disadvantage of this system is the stability factor. The Exchange rate can appreciate wildly and therefore be disruptive for tradable goods sector. When the currency depreciates, it can lead to extreme inflation by raising the domestic price of imports. Therefore, many countries that adopt floating exchange rate practice managed floating by intervening in some level in order to maintain their macroeconomic stability and minimize volatility impact. In reality, the implementations of exchange rate regimes are not always about choosing the other end of the spectrum. Most countries adopt a variety of combinations of both fixed and floating regimes, which are called intermediate regimes. One type of intermediate regimes is the crawling peg, where a currency value is allowed to fluctuate within a certain limit (Jakob, 2016).
  • 24. 13 2.3.5 Previous Studies On Fluctuating Foreign Exchange Rate (Zakari, 2017), investigated the relationship between foreign exchange rate and foreign direct investment in Nigeria, this is important in view of the recent and past devaluation of Nigeria currency as well as the exchange rate changes over the years to be precise 26 years coverage 1990-2015. This underscores the need to assess how foreign investors through foreign direct investment respond to changes in the exchange rate. This study relied on secondary data and time series. Data were collected from the website of Central Bank of Nigeria in a quantitative way for the period under review and analyzed using regression and correlation analysis techniques. Findings from the analysis show that there is a strong positive relationship between foreign direct investment and exchange rate in Nigeria. The study also found that there was a significant inflow of FDI from 2005-2014 due to rise in the exchange rate in the same period. The study concludes that exchange rate and foreign direct investment are positively correlated. Moreover, (Ogundipe, 2013) examined the impact of exchange rate volatility on consumer prices in Nigeria. The study adopts a Structural Vector autoregressive to estimate the pass-through effect of exchange rate changes to consumer prices. Using the Variance Decomposition analyses. In this research, secondary data was collected from Central Bank of Kenya. The study found a substantially large exchange rate pass- through to inflation in Nigeria. The Finding shows that exchange rate has been more important in explaining Nigeria’s rising inflation phenomenon than the actual money supply. Therefore, it is recommended that Nigerian economy focus on policies that ensure exchange rate stability and sound monetary surveillance. 2.4 previous studies on the relationship between fluctuating foreign exchange rate and currency: (Danson Musyoki, 2012) have done an investigation to found out the link between the exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Kenyan. The study examined the impact of real exchange rate volatility on economic growth in Kenyan. The study employed the Generalized Autoregressive Condition of Heteroscedasticity (GARCH) and computation of the unconditional standard deviation of the changes to measure volatility and Generalized Method Moments (GMM) to assess the impact of the real exchange
  • 25. 14 rate volatility on economic growth for the period January 1993 to December 2009. The main type of data used in this study is secondary that collected from Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Central Bank of Kenya and International Monetary Fund Data Base by taking monthly frequency. And the Research Methodology of This study is quantitative. The study found that real effective exchange rate was very volatility for the entire study period. Kenya’s The real exchange rate generally exhibited an appreciating and volatility trend, implying that in general, the country’s international competitiveness deteriorated over the study period. The real exchange rate Volatility reflected a negative impact on economic growth and which has a great impact on the local currency of Kenya. 2.5 Research Framework The purpose of the development of the research framework is to examine the relationships between fluctuating foreign exchange rate and Yemeni currency. The theoretical framework proposed in this study comprised of independent variables namely fluctuating foreign exchange rate. Yemeni currency is considered as a dependent variable in the theoretical framework as illustrated in figure 2.1. IV DV Figure 2.1 Theoretical framework 2.6 Hypotheses Development Based on the extant literature review and theoretical development discussed in previous sections, a number of hypotheses have been developed to answer the two identified research questions. H1: Fluctuating foreign exchange rate has a relationship with Yemeni currency. H2: Fluctuating foreign exchange rate has a significant effect on Yemeni currency. Fluctuating Foreign Exchange Rate Yemeni currency
  • 26. 15 2.7 Summary This chapter discussed the literature review of Fluctuating foreign exchange rate and Yemeni currency with previous studies. In addition, this chapter discussed the development of the theoretical framework and research hypotheses based on research questions.
  • 27. 16 CHAPTER THREE RESEARCH METHODOLOGY 3.1 Introduction This chapter presents the study design and methodology used in gathering information needed for the purpose of completing the study. This chapter describes the purpose, type and the type of investigation of this study. As well as, This chapter involves a blueprint for the collection, measurement, and analysis of data. Also, in this chapter describes the target population, sampling design, and data collection instrument and procedures. Additionally, it contains all the questions that are used to measure the two variables of this study. Finally, The chapter will be concluded by an exposition of the different statistical techniques used in the analysis. 3.2 Research Design Research design can be thought of as the logic or master plan of a research that throws light on how the study is to be conducted. It shows how all of the major parts of the research study– the samples or groups, measures, treatments or programs and many more. Work together in an attempt to address the research questions. A research design is the arrangement of conditions for data collection and analysis of data in a manner that aims to combine relevance to research purpose with economy in research procedure. (Chomba, 2012). According to Leedy&Ormrod (2005), a research design is a comprehensive plan that involves highlighting all the methods that will be utilized in the collection and analysis of data. The research design is also in line with the research objectives and study questions. Moreover, Research design is the plan and structure of investigation so conceived as to obtain answers to research questions. The plan is the overall scheme or program of the research (Robson, 2002).
  • 28. 17 3.2.1 Research Approach There are two prominent research approaches, Qualitative research and Quantitative research. Qualitative research methods normally entail reasoning from induction, gathering data and drawing conclusions from a multiplicity of interpretations and perceptions, beginning with observation, rather than a single, objective truth or rationality (Neuman, 1997). Qualitative research tends to focus on the collection of detailed amounts of primary data from relatively small samples of subjects by asking questions or observing behaviors (Hair et al.,2003).Quantitative approaches are generally based on the logic of deduction, beginning from accepted theories or premises and testing them rationally. Science in quantitative approaches is associated with objective truth, while qualitative research tends to focus on subjective experience (Neuman,1997). Quantitative research places heavy emphasis on using formalized standard questions and predetermined response options in the questionnaires or surveys administered to large number of respondents. Quantitative research methods are directly related to descriptive research designs than to exploratory designs (Hair et al.,2003). Quantitative research methods, on the other hand, involves the measurement of concepts using scales that either directly or indirectly provide numerical data ,These numerical data are then analyzed using mathematical procedures. These procedures can be extremely simple, such as percentages, or more complicated, such as statistical models or hypothesis testing using sophisticated software. Moreover, quantitative research methods enable researchers to determine the generalizability of the data collected from the sample to the population. To achieve this, quantitative methods rely on the use of fairly large samples collected through questionnaires or structured interviews (Zikmund & Griffin ,2010). Table 3.1: Key differences between qualitative and quantitative research. Selected Criteria Qualitative Quantitative Conceptual Concerned with understanding human behavior from the informant’s perspective. Concerned with discovering facts about social phenomena. Assumes a dynamic and negotiated reality Assumes a fixed and measurable reality. Methodologic al Data are collected through participant observation and interviews. Data collected through measuring things. Source: (McLeod, 2008)
  • 29. 18 Therefore, In this study mainly quantitative research method is used that focuses on responded to research questions requiring numerical data, accentuate target estimations and the factual, scientific, or numerical examination of information gathered through surveys, polls, and reviews or by controlling prior measurable information utilizing computational methods. 3.2.2 Purpose of The Study Research purposes may be grouped into three categories, which are exploratory, descriptive, and hypothesis testing. First, it is the exploratory research According to Polit et al (2001) explorative studies are undertaken when a new area is being investigated or when little is known about an area of interest. It is used to investigate the full nature of the phenomenon and other factors related to it. Second, it is the descriptive research According to Burns & Grove (2003) descriptive research “is designed to provide a picture of a situation as it naturally happens. It may be used to justify current practice and make judgment and also to develop theories. The main aim of descriptive research is to provide an accurate and valid representation of (encapsulate) the factors or variables that pertain / are relevant to the research question. The third type is Hypothesis testing is about testing to see whether the stated hypothesis is acceptable or not. During our hypothesis testing, we want to gather as much data as we can so that we can prove our hypothesis one way or another. The purpose of this study, hypothesis testing since it developed the theoretical framework and the hypotheses. 3.2.3 Type of Investigation We can find two types of investigations in the literature: Causal study and correlational study. Finding out the relationship among variables in the descriptive research process is labeled as correlation study which, according to Cooper and Schindler (2003), is a subset of descriptive study. A correlational study is conducted in the natural environment of the organization with minimum interference by the researcher with the normal flow of work (Sekaran, 2003). Also, Bold (2001) noted that the purpose of a correlational study is to establish whether two or more variables are related. Causal study is in which researcher wants to delineate the cause of one or more problems. In studies conducted to establish cause-and-effect relationships, the researcher tries to manipulate certain variables so as to study the effects of such
  • 30. 19 manipulation on the dependent variable of interest (Sekaran, 2003). In the causal research, the researcher examines how the independent variables are affected by the dependent variables and involves cause and effect relationships between the variables (Williams, 2007). In this regard, this study is a correlation type of investigation as we examine the relationship among variables. 3.2.4 Extent of Researcher Interference The extent of interference by the researcher with the normal flow of work at the workplace has a direct effect on whether the study performed is causal or correlational. A correlational study is carried out in the natural environment of the corporation with minimal interference by the researcher with the normal flow of work. In studies carried out to determine cause-and-effect relationships, the investigator attempts to adjust specific variables in order to study the outcomes of such manipulation on the dependent variable of interest. Put simply, the researcher intentionally changes certain variables in the setting and disrupts the events as they normally happen in the business (Jodie, 2015). Since, The Extent of researcher interference in this study minimum level of Interference by Researcher because the purpose is Hypothesis Testing. 3.2.5 Study Setting There are two type of Study setting is classified to contrived which is taking under the artificial setting, and the non-contrived study taken under the natural environment where work proceeds normally. According to the above the setting of this study is under the natural environment, thus this study is a non-contrived study. 3.3 Population and Sampling According to John W (2007), A population is any group of individuals who have one or more characteristics in common that are of interest to the researcher. The population may be all the individuals of a particular type or a more restricted part of that group. It is difficult to get responses from the whole population therefore; you have to determine a specific respondents that called a sample. According to Salaria (2012), a sample is a group chosen from a larger population with the aim of yielding information about this population as a whole is termed as sample. It is a miniature picture of the entire group or aggregate from which it has been taken. It is a smaller representation of
  • 31. 20 a larger whole. A good sample not only needs to be representative, it needs also to be adequate or of sufficient size to allow confidence in the stability of its characteristics. Fred N. Kerlinger (2007), states that sampling is taking any portion of a population or universe as representative of that population or universe. 3.3.1 Population The present study was carried out on the banking sector and more specifically on employees of commercial and Islamic banks of Yemen also, central bank. The targeted population for this study was banks operating in Sana'a. Five commercial, Islamic banks and central bank were considered. Table 3.2 includes the targeted banks. Table 3.2: The Targeted Banks Name Of Bank Number Of Employees Central Bank 700 Yemen Kuwait Bank 270 Cac Bank 2000 Saba Islamic Bank 350 International Bank Of Yemen 800 Total 4120 3.3.2 Sample Size According to kinra (2006) theories a typical range of sample size used by most researchers was 150-300. This research tends to choose a sample size of 180. This study will distribute the questionnaire base on the stratified sampling as well as the random distribution based on the sample random method. 3.4 Instrumentation The instrument used in the present study was personally administered questionnaire because of conducting primary research and questionnaire is most effective tool for this type of research (Sekaran, 2010). A questionnaire is a form containing a set of questions, especially addressed to a statistically significant number of subjects, and is a way of gathering information for a survey. It is used to collect statistical information or opinions about people. The oxford advanced learner‘s dictionary (1997) defines a
  • 32. 21 questionnaire as a written or printed list of questions to be answered by a number of people, especially as part of a survey. Therefore, the content of the questionnaire developed for this study consist of three sections. The first section contains the demographic data of the respondents. The second section contains questions that are pertaining the Yemeni currency. The third section contains questions that are pertaining the fluctuating foreign exchange rate. All the questions under this questionnaire will use the Five Likert Scale as shown in table 3.3. Table 3.3 Five Likert Scale Strongly disagree Disagree undecided agree Strongly agree 1 2 3 4 5 Source: (Podio help Center, 2016)
  • 33. 22 3.4.1 Yemeni Currency Measurement The study contains of seven questions established to study the Yemeni Currency. For the reason of completing this study, the questions will be adapted by the researcher. Table 3.4 shows the questions that measure Yemeni Currency. Table 3.4: Yemeni Currency Measurement No. Question 1 Exchange rate system imposed by central bank has an important role in reducing the risk of fluctuations in exchange rates. 2 Importing a lot participate in exporting more foreign currency to other countries. 3 Lack of foreign investments coming to Yemen participate in declining foreign exchange currencies. 4 Exchange rates affect directly in the Yemeni economy. 5 One of the most important means that affect the exchange rate are changes in currency supply and demand. 6 If a country is running very large budget deficits, a decrease in the value of its exchange rate will follow. 7 Exchange rates are affected by balance of trade deficits 3.4.2 Fluctuating Foreign Exchange Rate Measurement The study contains of seven questions established to study the Fluctuating Foreign Exchange Rate . For the reason of completing this study, the questions will be adapted by the researcher. Table 3.5 shows the questions that measure Fluctuating Foreign Exchange Rate. Table 3.5: Fluctuating Foreign Exchange Rate Measurement No. Question 1 Yemeni currency is facing deficits, because of the foreign exchange policy of central bank. 2 The exchange rate has experienced extreme fluctuations. 3 The sharp decline in the CBY’s foreign reserves has weakened the national
  • 34. 23 economy, thereby shaking customers’ confidence in the national currency. 4 Decline in the CBY’s total foreign reserves brings about wide fluctuations in exchange rates. 5 The continuing fall of the Rial against other currencies is attributed to lack of exports primarily. 6 Amongst the factors weighing on the rial have been widespread collapse of economic activity, and the cessation of oil exports. 7 Political-conflicts, especially armed ones, are almost inevitable indicators of many economic turmoil, one of them is currency deterioration. 3.5 Data Collection Sources of data are broadly classified in two categories, primary and secondary. According to parasuraman (2004), primary data are the information collected for the first time to bring about any explicit needs of a particular research. Require of primary data collection entail a range of diverse means. They are, personal or emails based survey questionnaires, face to face or telephone interviews, observations and focus groups (ghauri & gronhaug, 2005). While the secondary data is detailed information accessed by the researcher through other available sources of information to obtain thorough literature review. In fact, most of the studies begin in that fashion (kanikapati, 2007). The secondary source of data is very easy to extract and available in plenty through, books, magazines, journals, articles, and websites. In this study, a combination of both sets of data are used achieve maximum results. Therefore, the data collection of this research considered as primary and secondary data.in secondary data have been utilized to explore literature on this study and majority of the data pertaining to study have been collected through books, journals, websites, and articles. In data primary have been utilized the questionnaires method. Data was taken from employees of banks a self-administered questionnaire survey.
  • 35. 24 3.5.1 Instrumentation Translation These instruments were translated into the Arabic language for the convenience of participants. The whole questionnaire containing all the scale items were translated into the Arabic language for better understanding of the respondents to get the exact response from the banking employees. By the experts who are fluent in both English and Arabic, at the College of Languages and Translation at Sana'a University at Sana'a, Yemen. 3.5.2 Administration of Questionnaire Different ways to distributing the questionnaire such as self-administered questionnaire, using mail and personally handed. The self-administered questionnaire is a type of questionnaire, either in paper or in an electronic form that a respondent completes on his/her own. It enables the researchers to reach a large number of potential respondents in a variety of locations, especially when utilizing mail-in responses or online questionnaires. However, the response rate for self-administered surveys is relatively low, compared to other methods such as interviews or researcher-administered questionnaires (LLC, 2016). Mail surveys are a quantitative marketing research data collection method in which the respondent completes the questionnaires on paper and returns them via mail (research-methods, 2013).Group administered questionnaire (personally handed), a sample of respondents are brought together and asked to respond to a structured sequence of questions. Traditional, questionnaires were administered in group settings for convenience. The researcher could give the questionnaire to those who were present and be fairly sure that there would be a high response rate. If the respondents were unclear about the meaning of a question they could ask for clarification. And, there were often organizational settings where it was relatively easy to assemble the group in a company (M.K, 2006).Since, this study the distribution of the questionnaire was personally handed.
  • 36. 25 3.6 Scale Reliability For define the scale reliability, the questionnaire has been tasted using Cronbach's Alpha to confirm the internal consistency. Table 3.6 shows the results of Cronbach's Alpha test to all the questions of the questionnaire. Table 3.6: Reliability Statistics Cronbach's Alpha No. of Items .778 14 3.7 Data Analysis SPSS was used for data analysis. Data related to studied variables were coded and entered to the computer using SPSS software as it was most widely available and powerful statistical software package. SPSS is user friendly and cost effective for quantitative research in social sciences (Prabhakar, 2008). After data has been entered, it can be analyzed using Frequency Analysis, Descriptive analysis, correlation analysis, simple or multiple regression. Frequency analysis is used to answer the first research question. Frequency analysis is a descriptive statistical method that shows the number of occurrences of each response chosen by the respondents. When using frequency analysis, SPSS Statistics can also calculate the mean, median and mode to help users analyze the results and draw conclusions (winter,2016). Descriptive analysis these types of basic statistical analyses attempt to quantify the main features of a collection of data and can be used on data from both qualitative and quantitative studies. Correlation analysis is used to shows the relationship among different variables. Regression analysis is a statistical method of estimating the Relationship between a continuous dependent variable and one or more continuous Independent or predictor variables (Allison, 1999).
  • 37. 26 3.8 Summary This chapter has focused on the research methodologies, research approaches, Research purposes, and types of investigations that was adopted in the study. Including procedures, participants, data collection tools, data collection and analysis methods, and data credibility issues. At long last, the section was finished by showing the measurable investigation strategies utilized as a part of this study.
  • 38. 27 CHAPTER FOUR Data Analysis 4.1 Introduction After completing chapter three that described the research methodology and how the data was collected, this chapter is going to show the data analysis, which was obtained from the quantitative research method using questionnaire that was distributed to certain banks in Yemen, Moreover this chapter will describe the correlation relationship and linear regression between all variables and present the results of hypothesis testing typically the effect of independent variable which is fluctuating foreign exchange rate on the dependent variable which is Yemeni currency by using an analytical methodology manner. Accordingly, the data obtained from the research is be analyzed and represented in tables, graphs and accompanied with clarified text using SPSS software. Finally, after testing the hypothesis, the research will come up with a result either to support or reject the developed hypothesis. 4.2 Data Screening Before conducting any analyses, The data was screened for any errors in coding. Frequency test in SPSS version 21.0 was used in order to do this process. The results of this test showed that there were no errors in data entry and there was no extreme minimum or maximum value going above the range and the mean was also within the specified range. As well as, by applying a missing value analysis offered by SPSS 21.0 software, the results found that all cases were valid (180 cases) and no missing data. Therefore, it can be concluded that the data was clean and ready be tested and analyzed.
  • 39. 28 4.3 Sample Profile The targeted population was to (Managers and Employees), in five banks in sanaa which are, (Central Bank of Yemen , CAC BANK, YKB, International Bank Of Yemen and Saba Islamic Bank). The research questionnaire was distributed to 180 employees. The total surveys received for the current research was 148 and they were valid. Therefore, the overall response rate of 82% percent was obtained. In addition, the characteristics of the respondents are outlined in this section which is the gender, age. Education, position, and experience. So these demographic data were analyzed by using frequency tables and figures as follow. 4.3.1 Gender Table 4.1 and Figure 4.1 below show that most of the members of the sample group was male with (84.5%) and (15.5%) female. Gender is quite frequently a distinguishing segmentation variables. (84.5%) which is 125 respondents out of 148 respondents are males, on the other hand (15.5%) which is 23 female respondents out of 148 respondents. Table 4.1 Frequency Analysis of Gender Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Valid Male 125 84.5 84.5 84.5 Female 23 15.5 15.5 100.0 Total 148 100.0 100.0 Figure 4.1: Gender Frequency Analysis
  • 40. 29 4.3.2 Age As shown in Table 4.2 and Figure 4.2, most respondents were at the age 30-40 with (67.6%) that matches 100 respondents out of 148. After that, respondents between the age 20 to 30 years represented (19.6%) and a total number of 29. Moreover, (11.5%) were between the age 41-50 with a total number of 17 respondents. Finally, only 2 respondents were above the age 51 represented by (1.4%). Table 4.2: Age Frequency Analysis Frequenc y Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Valid 20-30 29 19.6 19.6 19.6 30-40 100 67.6 67.6 87.2 41-50 17 11.5 11.5 98.6 51+ 2 1.4 1.4 100.0 Total 148 100.0 100.0 Figure 4.2: Age Frequency Analysis
  • 41. 30 4.3.3 Education The results of the educational level of the participants indicated that (69.6%) of the participants who represent the highest number by 103 have bachelor degree. Followed by diploma degree represented by (16.9%) with total number of 25 participants. 19 participants have master degree who represent (12.8%) of the total percentage. Finally, (0.7%) represent that who has PHD degree with only 1 person, as shown in Table and Figure 4.3. Table 4.3: Education Frequency Analysis Frequenc y Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Valid Diploma 25 16.9 16.9 16.9 Bachelor 103 69.6 69.6 86.5 Master 19 12.8 12.8 99.3 Phd 1 .7 .7 100.0 Total 148 100.0 100.0 Figure 4.3: Education Frequency Analysis
  • 42. 31 4.3.4 Position The participants position level varied between managers from different levels. Employees participants were (48%) with a total number of 71. While (41.9%) contained the Middle Managers participants with total number of 62.Finally, top managers participants were (10.1%) with a total number of 15 as shown in Table and Figure 4.4. Table 4.4: Position Frequency Analysis Frequency Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Valid Top Manager 15 10.1 10.1 10.1 Middle Manager 62 41.9 41.9 52.0 Employee 71 48.0 48.0 100.0 Total 148 100.0 100.0 Figure 4.4: Position Frequency Analysis
  • 43. 32 4.3.5 Experience The highest percentage of (44.6%) were for those with 6-10 years of experience by 66 respondents. Over 10 years of experience came next with 40 respondents and (27%). Moreover, (23%) of the respondents fall under the category of 2-5 years of experience with a total number of 34 respondents. Finally, 8 respondents who have less than 2 years’ experience with a percent of (5.4%).as shown on table 4.5 and figure 4.5. Table 4.5: Experience Frequency Analysis Frequenc y Percent Valid Percent Cumulative Percent Valid Less than 2 years 8 5.4 5.4 5.4 2-5 years 34 23.0 23.0 28.4 6-10 years 66 44.6 44.6 73.0 Over 10 years 40 27.0 27.0 100.0 Total 148 100.0 100.0 Figure 4.5: Experience Frequency Analysis
  • 44. 33 4.4 Descriptive Statistics Descriptive analysis includes the means and the standard deviations for the dependent and independent variables, which are explained in the following sub-sections. Table 4.6 explains how the verbal evaluation was calculated for the SPSS output of the descriptive statistics. Table 4.6: Verbal evaluation How to calculate the verbal evaluation If the average is Verbal Evaluation Less than 1.80 Strongly Disagree From 1.81and less than 2.60 Disagree From 2.61 and less than 3.40 Neutral From 3.41 and less than 4.20 Agree From 4.21 to 5 Strongly Agree
  • 45. 34 4.4.1 Fluctuating Foreign Exchange Rate Question (4) got the first rank with a mean of 4.28 and standard deviation of .848 on the other hand, question (1) ranked last with a mean of 3.99 and standard deviation of 1.037. The overall average of the variable is 4.1380 and standard deviation is .49218 as shown in table 4.7. Table 4.7: fluctuating foreign exchange rate Descriptive Statistics No . N Mean Std. Deviation Verbal Appreciation 1 Exchange rate system imposed by central bank has an important role in reducing the risk of fluctuations in exchange rates. 148 3.99 1.037 Agree 2 Importing a lot participate in exporting more foreign currency to other countries 148 4.20 .830 Agree 3 Lack of foreign investments coming to Yemen participate in declining foreign exchange currencies. 148 4.20 .903 Agree 4 Exchange rates affect directly in the Yemeni economy 148 4.28 .848 Strongly Agree 5 One of the most important means that affect the exchange rate are changes in currency supply and demand. 148 4.14 .822 Agree 6 if a country is running very large budget deficits, a decrease in the value of its exchange rate will follow. 148 4.11 .885 Agree 7 Exchange rates are affected by balance of trade deficits 148 4.05 .772 Agree fluctuating foreign exchange rate 148 4.138 0 .49218 Valid N (listwise) 148
  • 46. 35 4.4.1 Yemeni Currency Question (3) got the first rank with a mean of 4.53and standard deviation of .694 on the other hand, question (1) ranked last with a mean of 3.67and standard deviation of 1.151 . The overall average of the variable is 4.2288 and standard deviation is .51136 as shown in table 4.8. Table 4.8: Yemeni currency Descriptive Statistics No . N Mean Std. Deviation Verbal Appreciatio n 1 Yemeni currency is facing deficits , because of the foreign exchange policy of CB. 148 3.67 1.151 Agree 2 The exchange rate has experienced extreme fluctuations. 148 4.30 .771 Strongly Agree 3 The sharp decline in the CBY’s foreign reserves has weakened the national economy, thereby shaking customers’ confidence in the national currency. 148 4.53 .694 Strongly Agree 4 Decline in the CBY’s total foreign reserves brings about wide fluctuations in exchange rates. 148 4.34 .797 Strongly Agree 5 the continuing fall of the Rial against other currencies is attributed to lack of exports primarily. 148 3.92 .845 Agree 6 Amongst the factors weighing on the rial have been widespread collapse of economic activity, and the cessation of oil exports . 148 4.31 .658 Strongly Agree 7 Political-conflicts, especially armed ones, are almost inevitable indicators of many economic turmoil ,one of them is currency deterioration. 148 4.52 .778 Strongly Agree Yemeni currency 148 4.2288 .51136 Valid N (listwise) 148
  • 47. 36 4.5 Correlation Analysis In order to examine the relationship between variables, correlation analysis was used. Table 4.9 clarifies the correlation matrix between the two variables. It indicated that fluctuating foreign exchange rate was correlated with Yemeni currency (r = .479, p < 0.05, 2-tailed). The Pearson's correlation coefficient (r) for the relationship between the fluctuating foreign exchange rate and Yemeni currency was shown to be r = .479 with a p value of .000 , which is well below the conventional threshold of p ≤ .05. Therefore, there is a significant relationship between fluctuating foreign exchange rate and Yemeni currency. Table 4.9: Correlation Analysis iv Dv Iv Pearson Correlation 1 .479** Sig. (2-tailed) .000 N 148 148 Dv Pearson Correlation .479** 1 Sig. (2-tailed) .000 N 148 148 **. Correlation is significant at the 0.01 level (2-tailed). 4.6 Regression Analysis The regression analysis is about determining the shape of the correlation between variables, either positive or negative relationship. Therefore, the simple linear regression is used to study the relationship between a dependent variable and an independent for purpose of the value prediction of dependent variable by depending on the values of independent variables. So, in this research, Multiple regression analysis was used to test the hypothesis for direct effect between the (independent variables) fluctuating foreign exchange rate on Yemeni currency (dependent variable).Table 4.10 indicates that the R square is (.230) which means that (23%) of the dependent variable which is Yemeni currency can be explained or predicted by the independent variable which is fluctuating foreign exchange rate.
  • 48. 37 According to the R square value, the percentage of the influence in this research is (23%) that describe low influence by the fluctuating foreign exchange rate on the Yemeni currency and these is mean there are still have other variables that not mention in the research. Table 4.10:Model Summary Model R R Square Adjusted R Square Std. Error of the Estimate 1 .479a .230 .225 .45031 a. Predictors: (Constant), fluctuating foreign exchange rate According to the results from multiple regression analysis, As shown in table 4.11 fluctuating foreign exchange rate has a Significant effect on Yemeni currency (Beta= .479, p=.000<0.05) which has been supported the hypothesis 2. Table 4.11:Coefficientsa Model Unstandardized Coefficients Standardized Coefficients t Sig. B Std. Error Beta 1 (Constant) 2.168 .314 6.894 .000 iv .498 .075 .479 6.600 .000 a. Dependent Variable: Yemeni currency 4.7 Hypotheses Testing According to the results concluded by Correlations analysis and regression analysis, Table 4.12 Shows the summary of hypotheses testing results. Table 4.12 Summary of Hypotheses Testing Results Hypothesis Statement Result H1 Fluctuating foreign exchange rate has a relationship with Yemeni currency. Supported
  • 49. 38 H2 Fluctuating foreign exchange rate has a significant effect on Yemeni currency. Supported 4.8 Summary This chapter showed the finding collected from the respondents. The respondent characteristics had varied from male and females with different age, level of education, position in the organization, and years of experience. Also, this chapter presented a descriptive statistics for each variable where varieties mean and standard variation had discussed. In addition, personal correlation analysis was used to indicate the significance of independent variable on dependent variable. Furthermore, liner regression was used in order to indicate whether the research hypothesis are supported or not.
  • 50. 39 CHAPTER FIVE DISCUSSION AND CONCLUSION 5.1 Introduction This study attempts to examine the impact of fluctuating foreign exchange rate on Yemeni currency. Two hypotheses have been developed assuming that there is a relationship between fluctuating foreign exchange rate and Yemeni currency and the Yemeni currency affected on fluctuating foreign exchange rate. After analyzing the data using the SPSS software, the results have supported the hypotheses as well as the previous studies done on the subject. Therefore, this chapter will discuss the results and will give some recommendations and future research to broaden the understanding of the current state of knowledge on Yemeni currency and fluctuating foreign exchange rate. 5.2 Discussion This research’s investigation resulted in proving the existence of a significant relationship between the fluctuating foreign exchange rate and the Yemeni currency, as the independent variable (fluctuating foreign exchange rate) and the dependent variable (The Yemeni currency) are correlated as (r = .479) at the significance level of (0.01). And the results from multiple regression analysis indicated that fluctuating foreign exchange rate has a Significant effect on Yemeni currency (Beta= .479, p=.000<0.05), which support the two hypotheses of this study, and which also answer the research questions. Finally, the results of this study supported the results in the literature review. According to the result discussed in chapter four, it supports the result that was proved by Danson Musyoki in 2012 The exchange rate Fluctuations reflected a negative impact on economic growth and which has a great impact on the local currency of Kenya.
  • 51. 40 5.3 Recommendations Based on the findings, therefore the following recommendations were made. Two main categories that are representing the recommendations regarding to the roles of different entities. Government and the private sector (banks) 5.3.1 Recommendations for Government The government should prevent any goods entering Yemen only with a notification of banks operating and authorized, in order to treat the financial movement and return to the natural financial market. Moreover, create a department in the Central Bank for the control of exchange companies And delivery of the Central Bank to the daily movement of each exchange company. Finally, The government should Developing supervision and oversight mechanisms on the activities of banks and exchange companies, and ensuring the provision of accurate information through the automated link. 5.3.2 Recommendations For Private Sector (banks) Banks should create a new polices and strategies to be able to deal with such issues in the near or far future. 5.4 Future Research Through reviewing previous research, the researcher recommended that There should be further studies relating to exchange rate fluctuation with other variables that the researcher have not mentioned in this study. The effect of exchange rate fluctuation on foreign direct investment should be done. Since foreign direct investment is a major determinant of GDP and helps to boots income. It can also be used an indicator of growth for a country in terms of cash inflow. Furthermore, The effect of exchange rate fluctuation on inflation of the economy. Here, there should be research to establish to what extend the fluctuation affects inflation. And the need for further investigation into the relationship with other variables such as GDP.
  • 52. 41 5.5 Conclusion In conclusion, this research study examined the effect of fluctuating foreign exchange rate on Yemeni currency. The research findings (whether correlation analysis results or regression analysis results) all supported the idea that fluctuating foreign exchange rate was correlated with Yemeni currency. Also, the analysis indicated that fluctuating foreign exchange rate has a significant effect on Yemeni currency (significant =.000). Through surveying actually 148 employees of the banks operating in Sana'a, Yemen using a questionnaire which adopted its content by a researcher. Aiming for finding a relationship between foreign exchange rate fluctuations and Yemeni currency, the correlation analysis results showed that fluctuating foreign exchange rate was correlated with Yemeni currency. And the regression analysis showed that fluctuating foreign exchange rate has a significant effect on Yemeni currency which has been supported the hypotheses of this study.
  • 53. 42 REFERENCES research-methods. (2013). Retrieved August 18, 2016, from marketstreetresearch web site: http://marketstreetresearch.com/research-methods/mail-surveys/ Podio help Center. (2016, April 6). Retrieved January 7, 2017, from Podio help Center Web site: https://help.podio.com/hc/en-us/community/posts/208797148-Likert- Scale-calculation- Amadeo, K. (2017, July). What Are Exchange Rates. Retrieved from https://www.thebalance.com/what-are-exchange-rates-3306083 Bashiri, M. A. (2013). Retrieved from http://almasdaronline.com/article/41136. Bergen, J. V. (2017). Factors That Influence Exchange Rates. Retrieved from http://www.investopedia.com/articles/basics/04/050704.asp. Central Bank of Sri Lanka. (2006, April ). EXCHANGE RATE. Retrieved from http://www.cbsl.gov.lk/pics_n_docs/10_pub/_docs/pa/pamphlet/pl_3.pdf. Chomba, K. (2012). :RESEARCH METHODOLOGY. THE EFFECT OF CAPITAL STRUCTURE ON THE CORPORATE GOVERNANCE OF COMPANIES LISTED AT THE NAIROBI SECURITIES EXCHANGE, 26. compareremit. (2014). Factors that Affect Foreign Exchange Rate. Retrieved from https://www.compareremit.com/money-transfer-guide/key-factors-affecting- currency-exchange-rates/. Danson Musyoki, G. ,. (2012, June). The impact of real exchange rate volatility on economic growth. academic publishing platforms, pp. 59-75. Eisenstein, C. (2011). Sacred Economics. In C. Eisenstein, Sacred Economics (pp. 205- 206). International Economics. (2015). Main Types of Foreign Exchange Rates. Retrieved from Triple A Learning: http://www.sanandres.esc.edu.ar/secondary/economics%20packs/international_e conomics/page_60.htm
  • 54. 43 InvestingAnswers . (2016). National Currency. Retrieved from InvestingAnswers : http://www.investinganswers.com/financial-dictionary/economics/national- currency-5839 Investopedia. (2016). Retrieved from https://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/currency.asp. Jakob, B. (2016). Impact of Exchange Rate Regimes on Economic , Article 11. Retrieved from https://digitalcommons.iwu.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?referer=https://www.google .com/&httpsredir=1&article=1350&context=uer Jodie, S. (2015). Elements of Research Design. Retrieved from http://slideplayer.com/slide/4576899/ LLC, T. (2016). Self-administered+Questionnaire. Retrieved August 18, 2016, from medanth.wikispaces web site: https://medanth.wikispaces.com/Self- administered+Questionnaire M.K, W. (2006, October 20). socialresearchmethods. Retrieved August 18, 2016, from Types of Surveys: http://www.socialresearchmethods.net/kb/survtype.php M.Loto. ( 2011, October). Does devaluation improve the trade balance of Nigeria. Journal of Economics and International Finance, pp. 624-633. McLeod, S. (2008). Qualitative vs. Quantitative. Retrieved August 8, 2016, from simplypsychology web site: http://www.simplypsychology.org/qualitative- quantitative.html Nasser, A. (2017, march). Rapid currency depreciation. Retrieved from http://sanaacenter.org/publications/analysis/89. Ogundipe. ( 2013, September). EXCHANGE RATE PASS-THROUGH TO CONSUMER PRICES IN NIGERIA. European Scientific Journal, pp. 110-123. (2006). "International Economic Relations. In M. S. Osama Al-Fouli. Cairo: New University Publishing Dar. Rogoff. (2009). Retrieved from http://tijoss.com/TIJOSS%2018th%20Folder/1Kamal.pdf.
  • 55. 44 Tauline. (2008). Exchange rates: dynamics, expectations and adjustment. Thomas. (2006). . Intraday arbitrage opportunities in foreign exchange and eurocurrency markets. Retrieved from http://erepository.uonbi.ac.ke/bitstream/handle/11295/94571/Naiguta_The%20ef fect%20of%20foreign%20exchange%20rate%20fluctuations%20on%20export %20earnings.pdf;sequence=1 Wan Abdoh, N. Y. (2016). In Macroeconomic Factors That Influence Exchange Rate Fluctuation in ASEAN Countries (pp. 89-94). Malaysia: International Academic Research Journal of Social Science. Williams, C. (2007). Research Methods. Journal of Business & Economic Research, pp. 65-72. Zakari, M. (2017, July). The Impact of Exchange Rate Fluctuations on Foreign Direct Investment in Nigeria . Journal of Finance and Accounting, pp. 166 -170.
  • 56. 45 APPENDIX APPENDIX A: English Version of Questionnaire Questionnaire 2018 Title of the study: THE EFFECT OF FLUCTUATING FOREIGN EXCHANGE RATE ON YEMENI CURRENCY
  • 57. 1 Introduction Dear participant, As part of undergraduate program, I am currently undertaking a Bachelor degree of Business Administration in International Business, and completing a research at International University of Technology Twintech. In order to achieve this objective, I intend to administer a written survey instrument and you are invited to participate in this study. Purpose The main purpose of this survey is to examine the relationship between Exchange rate fluctuations and Yemeni currency. In particular, I am interested to know how Exchange rate fluctuations affect Yemeni currency. The findings of this study will provide opportunities for all. Instructions to perform this survey 1. The questionnaire is divided into three sections, a. General information of the participant. b. The measurement scale of Exchange rate fluctuations. c. The measurement scale of Yemeni currency. 2. Confidentiality: I assure you that your response to the questionnaire is to be kept strictly confidential and will only use for academic purpose. 3. Procedures: To obtain sufficient and meaningful information, it is important to respond to each question as honestly and accurately as you can. 4. Please complete answering the survey questions within 7 days. 5. Risks: Completion of this questionnaire carries no known or foreseeable risks, and your participation is completely voluntary. 6. Contact: If you have any questions for me, I may be reached at: Mobile 967774404494 E-mail (abdalrhmanye15@gmail.com) Thank you for your assistance and support. Sincerely ABDALRHMAN NAGEIB MOHAMMED ALI AL-AWDI
  • 58. 2 Demographic Information The following questions are about your personal information. Demographic information 1- Gender:  Male  Female 2- Age:  20- 30  30 - 40  41 - 50  51 + 3- Education:  Diploma  Bachelor  Master  PhD 4- Position  Top Manager  Middle manager  First line manager 5- Experience:  Less than 2 years  2 – 5 Years  6 – 10 Years  Over 10 Years Exchange rate fluctuations: Please indicate your level of agreement with the following statements. Exchange rate fluctuations: Strongly disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree 1 Exchange rate system imposed by central bank has an important role in reducing the risk of fluctuations in exchange rates. 1 2 3 4 5 2 Importing a lot participate in exporting more foreign currency to other countries. 1 2 3 4 5 3 Lack of foreign investments coming to Yemen participate in declining foreign exchange currencies. 1 2 3 4 5 4 Exchange rates affect directly in the Yemeni economy. 1 2 3 4 5 5 One of the most important means that affect the exchange rate are changes in currency supply and demand. 1 2 3 4 5 6 If a country is running very large budget deficits, a decrease in the value of its exchange rate will follow. 1 2 3 4 5 7 Exchange rates are affected by balance of trade deficits 1 2 3 4 5 Section 2 Section 1
  • 59. 3 Yemeni currency Please indicate your level of agreement with the following statements Yemeni currency: Strongly disagree Disagree Neutral Agree Strongly Agree 1 Yemeni currency is facing deficits, because of the foreign exchange policy of CB. 1 2 3 4 5 2 The exchange rate has experienced extreme fluctuations. 1 2 3 4 5 3 The sharp decline in the CBY’s foreign reserves has weakened the national economy, thereby shaking customers’ confidence in the national currency. 1 2 3 4 5 4 Decline in the CBY’s total foreign reserves brings about wide fluctuations in exchange rates. 1 2 3 4 5 5 The continuing fall of the Rial against other currencies is attributed to lack of exports primarily. 1 2 3 4 5 6 Amongst the factors weighing on the rial have been widespread collapse of economic activity, and the cessation of oil exports. 1 2 3 4 5 7 Political-conflicts, especially armed ones, are almost inevitable indicators of many economic turmoil ,one of them is currency deterioration. 1 2 3 4 5 Thank you for your participation Section 3
  • 60. 4 APPENDIX B: Arabic Version of Questionnaire ‫استمارة‬ ‫استبيان‬ 2018 :‫اٌذساعخ‬ ْ‫ا‬ٕٛ‫ػ‬ ‫ت‬ ‫أث‬ ‫ي‬ ‫ز‬ ‫تقلب‬ ‫سعز‬ ‫الصزف‬ ٌ‫األجىب‬ ‫علي‬ ‫العملت‬ ‫اليمىي‬ ‫ت‬
  • 61. 5 :‫مقذمــــــت‬ ٞ‫ض‬٠‫ػض‬ ‫اٌّشبسن‬ ، ‫ثحث‬ ‫ع‬ٚ‫ِشش‬ َ‫إرّب‬ ‫ِزطٍجبد‬ ِٓ ‫جضء‬ ٟ٘ ‫اٌذساعخ‬ ٖ‫٘ز‬ ْ‫إ‬ ‫دسجخ‬ ً١ٌٕ ٛ٠‫س‬ٌٛ‫اٌجىب‬ ‫ط‬ ‫االداسح‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫خ‬١ٌٚ‫اٌذ‬ ‫جبِؼخ‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫ٔزه‬ٛ‫ر‬ ‫خ‬١ٌٚ‫اٌذ‬ ‫ب‬١‫ج‬ٌٕٛٛ‫ٌٍزى‬ ٟٔ‫فئ‬ ‫ذف‬ٌٙ‫ا‬ ‫٘زا‬ ‫إٔجبص‬ ً‫ألج‬ٚ . ‫٘زا‬ ‫ز‬١‫رٕف‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫أسغت‬ ْ‫ب‬١‫االعزج‬ ‫ِبد‬ٍٛ‫اٌّؼ‬ ٍٝ‫ػ‬ ‫ي‬ٛ‫ٌٍحص‬ ٟٔ‫ا‬ٚ ٌٝ‫إ‬ ُ‫رى‬ٛ‫ثذػ‬ ‫أرششف‬ ‫االشزشان‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫٘زا‬ ‫رؼجئخ‬ ْ‫ب‬١‫االعزج‬ . ‫هذف‬ :‫الذراست‬ ٟ‫غ‬١‫اٌشئ‬ ‫ذف‬ٌٙ‫ا‬ ‫٘زا‬ ِٓ ْ‫ب‬١‫االعزج‬ ٛ٘ ‫اخزجبس‬ ‫ش‬١‫رأث‬ ‫رمٍت‬ ‫عؼش‬ ‫اٌصشف‬ ٟ‫األجٕج‬ ٍٝ‫ػ‬ ‫اٌؼٍّخ‬ ‫خ‬١ّٕ١ٌ‫ا‬ . ْ‫إ‬ َ‫اال٘زّب‬ ٍٝ‫ػ‬ ‫زشوض‬٠ ‫ش‬١‫رأث‬ ‫اخزجبس‬ ‫رمٍت‬ ‫عؼش‬ ‫اٌصشف‬ ٟ‫األجٕج‬ ٍٝ‫ػ‬ ‫اٌؼٍّخ‬ ‫خ‬١ّٕ١ٌ‫ا‬ . ‫هذا‬ ‫تىفيذ‬ ‫أجل‬ ‫مه‬ ‫توصياث‬ ‫االستبيان‬ : 1 - ْ‫ب‬١‫االعزج‬ ٍٝ‫ػ‬ ٞٛ‫حز‬٠ ‫ثالثخ‬ :َ‫ألغب‬ ‫أ‬ . .‫اٌّشبسن‬ ٓ‫ػ‬ ‫ػبِخ‬ ‫ِبد‬ٍٛ‫ِؼ‬ ‫ة‬ . ‫رمٍت‬ ‫عؼش‬ ‫اٌصشف‬ ٟ‫األجٕج‬ . ‫ج‬ . ‫اٌؼٍّخ‬ ‫خ‬١ّٕ١ٌ‫ا‬ . 2 - :‫خ‬١‫ص‬ٛ‫اٌخص‬ ‫ب‬ٙ‫وشف‬ َ‫ػذ‬ٚ ‫ِبد‬ٍٛ‫اٌّؼ‬ ‫خ‬١‫ص‬ٛ‫خص‬ ْ‫ضّب‬ ٍٝ‫ػ‬ ‫رؼزّذ‬ ‫اٌذساعخ‬ ٖ‫٘ز‬ ‫بعخ‬١‫ع‬ ْ‫إ‬ ‫فمط‬ ّٟ٠‫االوبد‬ ‫اٌجحث‬ ‫ألغشاض‬ ‫ِخصصخ‬ ‫ب‬ٙٔ‫أ‬ ‫ث‬١‫ح‬ ، ‫غذ‬١ٌ ‫اٌّشزشن‬ ‫خ‬٠ٛ٘ ْ‫أ‬ ‫وّب‬ .‫ثخ‬ٍٛ‫ِط‬ 3 - :‫خ‬١‫ج‬ٌّٕٙ‫ا‬ ٍٝ‫ػ‬ ‫ي‬ٛ‫اٌحص‬ ْ‫ضّب‬ ً‫ألج‬ ‫اعزجبثخ‬ ،‫اٌذساعخ‬ ‫ألغشاض‬ ‫اٌّشزشن‬ ِٓ ‫فبػٍخ‬ ٌّ‫ا‬ ‫لذس‬ ‫مخ‬١‫دل‬ٚ ‫ِؼجشح‬ ‫بٔبد‬١‫اٌج‬ ْٛ‫رى‬ ْ‫ا‬ ٛ‫ٔشج‬ .‫غزطبع‬ 4 - ٝ‫شج‬٠ ٍٝ‫ػ‬ ‫اإلجبثخ‬ ْ‫ب‬١‫االعزج‬ ‫خالي‬ 7 .َ‫ب‬٠‫أ‬ 5 - ‫ال‬ ٍٝ‫ػ‬ ٞٛ‫رٕط‬ ‫ِخبطش‬ ‫خ‬٠‫أ‬ ‫جذ‬ٛ‫ر‬ ‫االعزجبثخ‬ ‫ؼزجش‬٠ ‫ب‬ٙ١‫ف‬ ‫االشزشان‬ ْ‫أ‬ ‫وّب‬ ‫اٌذساعخ‬ ٖ‫ز‬ٌٙ .ً‫ب‬١‫ػ‬ٛ‫ط‬ 6 - ‫مخ‬٠‫طش‬ :‫االرصبي‬ ‫ٌغشض‬ ‫ثبٌجبحث‬ ‫ثبالرصبي‬ ‫سغجذ‬ ‫ارا‬ ‫االعزفغبس‬ ‫ثبٌطشق‬ ‫رٌه‬ ‫فجئِىبٔه‬ : ‫خ‬١ٌ‫اٌزب‬ :ً٠‫ثب‬ِٛ 774404494 ُ٠‫اٌىش‬ ُ‫ٔى‬ٚ‫رؼب‬ ُ‫ٌى‬ ‫ٔشىش‬ ٖ‫٘ز‬ ‫إٔجبح‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ،‫اٌذساعخ‬ ً‫العود‬ ٌ‫عل‬ ‫محمذ‬ ‫وجيب‬ ‫عبذالزحمه‬
  • 62. 6 ‫عامت‬ ‫معلوماث‬ :‫ثه‬ ‫اٌخبصخ‬ ‫ِبد‬ٍٛ‫ثبٌّؼ‬ ‫رزؼٍك‬ ‫خ‬١ٌ‫اٌزب‬ ‫األعئٍخ‬ 5 - :‫الخبزة‬ ‫سىواث‬  ٓ١‫عٕز‬ ِٓ ً‫أل‬  2 – 5 ‫اد‬ٕٛ‫ع‬  6 – 10 ‫اد‬ٕٛ‫ع‬  ِٓ ‫أوثش‬ 10 ‫اد‬ٕٛ‫ع‬ 4 - ‫الوظيفت‬ :  ‫ش‬٠‫ِذ‬ ‫ب‬١ٍ‫اٌؼ‬ ‫اإلداسح‬ ٜٛ‫ِغز‬ ٟ‫ف‬  ‫ش‬٠‫ِذ‬ ٝ‫عط‬ٌٛ‫ا‬ ‫اإلداسح‬ ٜٛ‫ِغز‬ ٟ‫ف‬  ‫ظف‬ِٛ 3 - ٌ‫التعليم‬ ‫المستوى‬ :  ٍَٛ‫دث‬  ‫ظ‬٠‫س‬ٌٛ‫ثىب‬  ‫ش‬١‫ِبجغز‬  ‫ساح‬ٛ‫دوز‬ 2 - :‫العمز‬  20 - 30  30 - 40  41 - 50  50 + 1 - :‫الجىس‬  ‫روش‬  ٝ‫أٔث‬ ‫تقلباث‬ ‫أسعار‬ ‫الصزف‬ ‫اٌّخزبسح‬ ‫اإلجبثخ‬ ‫ي‬ٛ‫ح‬ ‫دائشح‬ ‫ضغ‬ٚ ٝ‫شج‬٠ ً ‫ا‬ ‫جذ‬ ‫افك‬ِٛ ‫افك‬ِٛ ‫ــذ‬٠‫ِحب‬ ‫ش‬١‫غ‬ ‫افك‬ِٛ ‫افك‬ِٛ ‫ش‬١‫غ‬ ‫ثشذح‬ ‫تقلباث‬ ‫أسعار‬ ‫الصزف‬ 5 4 3 2 1 ‫ٍؼت‬٠ َ‫ٔظب‬ ‫عؼش‬ ‫اٌصشف‬ ٞ‫اٌز‬ ٗ‫فشض‬٠ ‫اٌجٕه‬ ٞ‫اٌّشوض‬ ً‫ا‬‫س‬ٚ‫د‬ ‫ّب‬ِٙ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫ف‬١‫اٌزخف‬ ِٓ ‫ِخبطش‬ ‫رمٍجبد‬ ‫أعؼبس‬ ‫اٌصشف‬ . 1 5 4 3 2 1 ُ٘‫غب‬٠ ‫شاد‬١‫االعز‬ ‫ش‬١‫اٌىث‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫ش‬٠‫رصذ‬ ‫ذ‬٠‫اٌّض‬ ِٓ ‫اٌؼٍّخ‬ ‫خ‬١‫األجٕج‬ ٌٝ‫إ‬ ‫ي‬ٚ‫اٌذ‬ ٜ‫األخش‬ 2 5 4 3 2 1 ُ٘‫غب‬٠ ‫أخفبض‬ ‫االعزثّبساد‬ ‫خ‬١‫األجٕج‬ ‫اٌمبدِخ‬ ٌٝ‫إ‬ ّٓ١ٌ‫ا‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫أخفبض‬ ‫خ‬١ّ‫و‬ ‫ػّالد‬ ‫اٌصشف‬ ‫خ‬١‫األجٕج‬ 3 5 4 3 2 1 ‫رؤثش‬ ‫ِؼذالد‬ ‫اٌصشف‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫االلزصبد‬ ّٟٕ١ٌ‫ا‬ ً‫ثشى‬ ‫ِجبشش‬ 4 5 4 3 2 1 ِٓ ُ٘‫أ‬ ً‫عبئ‬ٌٛ‫ا‬ ٟ‫اٌز‬ ‫رؤثش‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫ِؼذي‬ ‫اٌصشف‬ ٟ٘ ‫شاد‬١‫اٌزغ‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫اٌؼشض‬ ‫اٌطٍت‬ٚ ٍٝ‫ػ‬ ‫اٌؼٍّخ‬ 5 5 4 3 2 1 ‫إرا‬ ‫رؼشضذ‬ ‫ٌخ‬ٚ‫اٌذ‬ ٌٝ‫إ‬ ‫ػجض‬ ‫ش‬١‫وج‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫ب‬ٙ‫اصٔز‬ِٛ ْ‫فئ‬ ‫رٌه‬ ٗ‫زجؼ‬١‫ع‬ ‫أخفبض‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫ّخ‬١‫ل‬ ‫ِؼذي‬ ‫صشف‬ ‫ب‬ٙ‫ػٍّز‬ 6 5 4 3 2 1 ‫رزأثش‬ ‫ِؼذالد‬ ‫اٌصشف‬ ‫ثبٌؼجض‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ْ‫ضا‬١ِ ‫ػبد‬ٛ‫اٌّذف‬ 7 ٌ‫الثاو‬ ‫القسم‬ ‫األول‬ ‫القسم‬
  • 63. 7 ‫العملت‬ ‫اليمىيت‬ ‫اٌّخزبسح‬ ‫اإلجبثخ‬ ‫ي‬ٛ‫ح‬ ‫دائشح‬ ‫ضغ‬ٚ ٝ‫شج‬٠ ً ‫ا‬ ‫جذ‬ ‫افك‬ِٛ ‫افك‬ِٛ ‫ــذ‬٠‫ِحب‬ ‫ش‬١‫غ‬ ‫افك‬ِٛ ‫افك‬ِٛ ‫ش‬١‫غ‬ ‫ثشذح‬ ‫العملت‬ ‫اليمىيت‬ 5 4 3 2 1 ٗ‫اج‬ٛ‫ر‬ ‫اٌؼٍّخ‬ ‫خ‬١ّٕ١ٌ‫ا‬ ‫ػجضا‬ ‫ثغجت‬ ‫بعخ‬١‫ع‬ ٞ‫اٌّشوض‬ ‫اٌجٕه‬ ‫ٌٕمذ‬ ٟ‫األجٕج‬ 8 5 4 3 2 1 ‫رؼشض‬ ‫ِؼذي‬ ‫عؼش‬ ‫اٌصشف‬ ٌٝ‫إ‬ ‫رمٍجبد‬ ‫ذح‬٠‫شذ‬ 9 5 4 3 2 1 ٜ‫أد‬ ‫االٔخفبض‬ ‫ذ‬٠‫اٌشذ‬ ‫ا‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ٟ‫بط‬١‫حز‬ ‫اٌجٕه‬ ٞ‫اٌّشوض‬ ِٓ ‫اٌؼّالد‬ ‫خ‬١‫األجٕج‬ ٌٝ‫إ‬ ‫إضؼبف‬ ‫االلزصبد‬ ،ٟٕ‫ط‬ٌٛ‫ا‬ ‫ِّب‬ ٜ‫أد‬ ٌٝ‫إ‬ ‫ا٘زضاص‬ ‫ثمخ‬ ‫اٌؼّالء‬ ‫ثبٌؼٍّخ‬ ‫خ‬١ٕ‫ط‬ٌٛ‫ا‬ . 10 5 4 3 2 1 ٜ‫أد‬ ‫أخفبض‬ ‫بط‬١‫االحز‬ ٌٟ‫اإلجّب‬ ‫ٌٍجٕه‬ ٞ‫اٌّشوض‬ ِٓ ‫اٌؼّالد‬ ‫خ‬١‫األجٕج‬ ٌٝ‫إ‬ ‫رمٍجبد‬ ‫شح‬١‫وج‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫ِؼذالد‬ ‫اٌصشف‬ . 11 5 4 3 2 1 ‫االٔخفبض‬ ‫اٌّغزّش‬ ٟ‫ف‬ ‫عؼش‬ ‫بي‬٠‫اٌش‬ ً‫ِمبث‬ ‫اٌؼّالد‬ ٜ‫األخش‬ ‫شجغ‬٠ ً‫ثشى‬ ٟ‫غ‬١‫سئ‬ ٌٝ‫إ‬ ‫أخفبض‬ ‫اٌصبدساد‬ 12 5 4 3 2 1 ِٓ ٓ١‫ث‬ ًِ‫ا‬ٛ‫اٌؼ‬ ‫اٌّؤثشح‬ ٍٝ‫ػ‬ ‫بي‬٠‫اٌش‬ ْ‫وب‬ ‫بس‬١ٙٔ‫اال‬ ‫اعغ‬ٌٛ‫ا‬ ‫ٌٍٕشبط‬ ٞ‫االلزصبد‬ ‫لف‬ٛ‫ر‬ٚ ‫صبدساد‬ ‫إٌفط‬ . 13 5 4 3 2 1 ‫اٌصشاػبد‬ ،‫خ‬١‫بع‬١‫اٌغ‬ ‫ّب‬١‫الع‬ ‫اٌّغٍحخ‬ ،‫ب‬ِٕٙ ٟ٘ ‫ِؤششاد‬ ‫ال‬ ‫ِفش‬ ‫ب‬ِٕٙ ‫ذ‬٠‫ٌٍؼذ‬ ِٓ ‫االضطشاثبد‬ ‫خ‬٠‫االلزصبد‬ ‫ب‬ِٕٙٚ ‫س‬ٛ٘‫رذ‬ ‫اٌؼٍّخ‬ . 14 ‫ٔشىشن‬ ً‫ا‬‫جذ‬ ‫ٔه‬ٚ‫رؼب‬ ٍٝ‫ػ‬ ُ٠‫اٌىش‬ ‫ِؼٕب‬ . ‫الثالث‬ ‫القسم‬