Tiktak

1
WATER QUALITY IN THE
NETHERLANDS
Today and Tomorrow
Aaldrik Tiktak
Frank van Gaalen
Policy-Science Working Group on reducing
Nutrient Emissions from Agriculture
Gent, 24 – 25 November 2015

2
Evaluation of second generation
River Basin Management Plans for the WFD
2009 2015 2021 2027
Start of WFD End year of WFD
2009-2015 2021-20272016-2021
Ex post: what has
been achieved?
Ex ante: will the targets be
achieved in 2027?
Water quality in the Netherlands – Today and Tomorrow
Aaldrik Tiktak and Frank van Gaalen

3
Nitrates Directive important for achieving WFD goals
 So evaluation of
manure and
fertiliser policies
with respect to
target achievement
for the WFD is an
integral part of our
evaluation

4
Target achievement for ecology lags behind
 Even though lower quality is acceptable
 Majority of Dutch surface waters is
classified heavily modified or artificial
Modified
Artificial
Natural
Status of surface water bodies, 2008

5
Ex post: what has been achieved?
2009 2015 2021 2027
2009-2015 2021-20272016-2021
Ex post: based on
monitoring data

6
Despite budget cuts, 90% of total plans in previous
RBMPs were actually realised in 2015…

7
…But biological quality is still moderate to poor in
majority of water bodies
 Biological quality based on
one out – all out principle
 Better scores for individual
WFD species groups

8
Nutrient status good in 50% of water bodies
Most problems in:
South eastern sand region for
N and P (intensive livestock
region)
Western peat and clay region
for P (high groundwater levels
so high P-runoff)

9
Leaching from agricultural soils dominant source
of N and P
 RBMPs do not contain
measures to reduce N
and P from agricultural
soils
 Dutch house of
Parliament: WFD should
not lead to additional
costs for agriculture
 Surface water
improvement depends
on fertiliser and manure
policies

10
Manure and fertiliser policy successfully reduced
nitrogen in groundwater
 But mean concentration
in Southern sand region
still above 50 mg/l
 Best results were
obtained after the
introduction of the
Mineral Accounting
System (MINAS)
 Speed of quality
improvement slows
down

General chemical status groundwater bodies WFD is
good
11
 EU target: maximum
20% of locations above
50 mg/l
 So we are very close to
this target

12
Ex ante: will the targets be achieved?
2009 2015 2021 2027
2009-2015 2021-20272016-2021
Based on model calculations by Alterra,
LEI and Deltares

We evaluated the fifth NAP and the second RBMPs
 Fifth NAP: application standards
lowered on sandy soils and increased
for grass on clay soils
 Main aim: comply with nitrogen
standard on sandy soils
 Second RBMPs: additional measures for
point sources (sewage treatment
plants) and hydromorphology
 No additional measures to reduce
agricultural inputs
13

Groundwater quality improves on sandy soils but
target still exceeded in 2027
14
 Effect of abolishment of
milk quota not yet
accounted for
 Growth of 20% of dairy
livestock expected until
2021
 7% was realised by
2013, so increase ~13%
 Risk of shortage of
manure processing
capacity

Risks of pollution swapping
15
 Despite growth of
livestock, N and P
excretion stay around
national production
ceiling: reduction of P in
feed
 Milk quota abolishment:
Risk of increase of P-
production: P-quota
system suggested
 One-sided policy on P:
Risk of increase of
- N excretion
- N leaching

Nutrient load to surface waters increases on clay soils
16
 Expected because
application standards
were increased on clay
soils
 Overall decrease is less
than 5%
 So contribution of NAP to
WFD is very limited

Improvement of biological quality modest and targets
are out of reach
17
Improvement primarily due:
Hydromorphological measures
Sewage treatment plants
Contribution of NAP limited
Better integration of
WFD and ND needed to
achieve the targets

18
Outlook: what can we do to reach the goals of the
WFD?
2009 2015 2021 2027
2009-2015 2021-20272016-2021

Choices must be made for the 2021 RBMPs
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1. Scientific review of current WFD standards, e.g. have
background concentration been accounted for sufficiently? If
not, adapt the standards
2. Look for additional measures to improve target achievement
3. If additional measures are considered to be disproportional,
standards may be lowered. This, however, requires intensive
discussions with the EC

Choices must be made for the 2021 RBMPs
20
1. Scientific review of current WFD standards, e.g. have
background concentration been accounted for sufficiently? If
not, adapt the standards
2. Look for additional measures to improve target achievement
3. If additional measures are considered to be disproportional,
standards may be lowered. This, however, requires intensive
discussions with the EC

Improve enforcement of application standards and
abate manure fraud
21
 Utilisation degree of
nitrogen and
phosphorous > 125% in
many intensive livestock
communities
 Frustrates progress:
farmers that are willing
to change may not take
action

Implement a smart mix of generic nutrient policies
and regional measures
22
 To reach all current targets of the WFD, nutrient inputs must be
halved relative to 2015
 Generic policies are needed, e.g. to avoid increase of N and P
pollution after the abolishment of milk quota and to create a
ledel playing field
 Cost-effective solutions can best be sought in a regional setting

Two examples of regional mitigation measures
23
 Controlled drainage:
Reduces P-load but P is
not removed from the
soil. Costs considerable
but also benefits due to
better water
management
 P-mining:
Reduction over 50%
possible. Robust option
because P is removed
from the soil. Only at 5-
10% of field. Costs
because of increased
manure surplus

Significant effects of mining can be expected before
the end year of the WFD
24
 The number of soils with
phosphate status
sufficient will increase to
50% by 2027

The Deltaplan Agricultural Water Management
25
 Agricultural sector started the Deltaplan
Agricultural Water Management with the aim
to
– Improve competiveness of the sector
– Resolve all water quality problems by 2027
 30 pilot project carried out and an extensive
list of possible measures is available
 Programme very ambituous.
 Many measures voluntarily so there is a risk
that the step to large scale large scale
implementation is not made

Boundary conditions for succesfull implementation
26
 Awareness raising
– E.g. make farmers aware of incidental losses
 Consensus about
– Sources of nutrient pollution in a specific
region
– Effectiveness, costs, risks and applicability of
measures
 Expensive measures not implemented
voluntarily
– A budget of 60 mln €/year is available from
the CAP; could be used to stimulate
implentation of this programme

From Corporatism to Participation
27
 Debate dominated by a limited number of stakeholders in an
institutional setting
– The Dutch Polder Model
– Strong influence of agricultural sector: no additional costs for agriculture
– Result: SGBPs are ‘owned’ by the Ministry of Infrastructure and
Environment and the NAP by the Ministry of Economic Affairs
 A debate based on equality is needed (deliberation)
– OECD: Pressure from outside needed to help start the ball rolling
– EC: Good nutrient status as a boundary condition
for the sixth NAP?
– True participation of all stakeholders
needed

Acknowledgments
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 Thanks to
– Peter van Puijenbroek (PBL)
– Hanneke Muilwijk (PBL)
– Carin Rougoor (PBL)
– Erwin van Boekel (Alterra)
– Caroline van der Salm (Alterra)
– Piet Groenendijk (Alterra)
– Peter Cleij (Deltares)
– Joost van den Roovaart (Deltares)

THANKS FOR YOUR
ATTENTION
Report will be published
on www.pbl.nl by
December 2015

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