High quality research and thought leadership on the role of gold globally from the World Gold Council. You can download the accompanying app by visiting: https://itunes.apple.com/gb/app/advanced-by-gold/id657418524?mt=8
2. Contents
Gold’s impact 03
Preserving wealth 04
Rising aspirations 09
Scientific breakthroughs 12
Putting gold to work 15
Boosting growth 18
The World Gold Council 21
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3. Gold is not a new story. It is, however an evolving one. Today its unique
qualities, seen in a range of applications, have given it new relevance.
Gold – making an
impact in the world
Jewellery alone accounts for half of global demand. As a
financial instrument, supporting medical breakthroughs,
or helping to build new infrastructure to support
communities, gold is being put to use in more ways than
ever before.
Gold’s versatility and scarcity combine to make it a
unique substance: the ultimate store of value in a world
advanced by gold. In the rapidly growing markets of China
and India, gold – long embedded financially and culturally
– has acquired new prominence and prestige. Consumers
are enjoying new found wealth, and this can be seen in a
renewed interest for gold.
Gold is adaptable: that is why it continues to be such an
important material today. Gold’s properties make it an
essential component in emerging technologies, such as
medical diagnostics and nanotech.
Today gold has renewed relevance as a foundation asset
to help manage risk and preserve wealth. Gold represents
stability, tangibility and long–term foundations, whether
for institutions or individuals. Gold has a reassuringly solid
presence and it is here to stay.
3
Gold’s impact
4. 4
The world is ‘volatile, uncertain,
complex and ambiguous’ – VUCA.
Investment decisions are difficult.
Growth is elusive, and security is
hard to find, too. Gold is unique.
Over the long term, it preserves
wealth, and adds to it. As an asset
it is supported by growing global
demand. As a commodity it is both
needed and trusted by a growing
cohort of industries and investors.
Gold is always in demand
somewhere, either as something
exquisite to be aspired to, or as an
investment.
Whatever turbulence we see in
global currencies or government
credit ratings, gold remains solid.
Seeking solutions and
stability in an uncertain world
Preserving wealth
5. The world spins on its axis, as every schoolchild
knows.
But today many of the other certainties we grew up
with have been overthrown. Complexity rules. The
great financial crisis which hit in 2008 is yet to be fully
resolved. And meanwhile a global rebalancing is taking
place.
The resurgence of Asia, in particular China and India,
will see higher growth rates than in the West, with a
billion new urban consumers by 2020. Patterns of
consumption are shifting. Savings rise in the East
while debt rises in the West. However, despite lower
projected growth rates in the mature markets of the
West, they still remain significant. Indeed, on a per
capita measure, developed countries are forecast to
remain significantly wealthier.
Powerful sources of demand China and India alone
already account for more than half of total global
demand for gold. Jewellery – which makes up half the
global gold market – is valued there not only in its own
right as a symbol of timeless relationships, but also as
a store of value and an investment.
Solidity in a
complicated world
Gold demand across sectors:
2008 – 2012 (5 year average)
Jewellery
Technology
Bar and coin
ETFs and similar
Central bank net
purchases
5
Preserving wealth
Gold demand across sectors:
2012
Source: Thomson Reuters
GFMS, World Gold Council
6. Preserving wealth
6
A solid investment
This changing global context,
underpinned by new and resilient sources
of demand, should provide some
reassurance to private investors
wondering about gold as an asset class.
What are private investors looking for? A
reasonable degree of certainty. Gold can
offer this as a modest part of any
balanced investment portfolio, in terms
both of wealth creation and preservation.
As a tangible, real asset, gold is more
easily understood and trusted than more
complex, esoteric financial instruments.
Perhaps this is why, as market
confidence rises in the US, consumer
demand for gold rose 22% in the first
quarter of 2013 compared to early 2012.
At a time when traditional assets are
under-performing or overly volatile,
pensions and savings need to build on
assets that reduce risk and stabilise
returns. Gold can help deliver this much–
needed protection over the long term.
Geographical distribution of
gold demand 2012*
of global gold demand
is from China and India55%
Source Thomson Reuters
GFMS, World Gold Council
*% of consumer demand
(jewellery plus total bar
and coin demand)
7. China: Projected central
bank gold holdings
1,054
tonnes
2012 gold share in
reserves (1.7%)
1,589
tonnes
2022 projected gold
reserves if
ratio remains constant at
1.7%
2,524
tonnes
2022 projected gold
reserves if
ratio increases by 1% to
2.7%
Source: Oxford
Economics
7
Central bank governors, a serious
bunch by and large, are only human.
They seek security. Gold can fulfill a
monetary function and acts as a
protector of the value of reserve
assets as a whole.
Central banks are increasing their
holdings of gold as a percentage of
reserve assets. As a new financial
architecture emerges in the post–
crisis world, it is clear that gold has
acquired a new relevance.
Since 2009, when they first became
net purchasers of gold, central
banks have bought heavily. They
have added almost 1,100 tonnes to
global gold reserves, and 2012 saw
levels of buying not seen for five
decades. Developing countries have
been particularly active, seeking to
diversify their asset base as their
currency reserves have grown.
Future purchasing will have a big
impact on demand. China’s foreign
reserve purchasing is a clear
example. Assuming gold prices
remain flat in real terms, even
gradually increasing the share of
gold in total Chinese reserves by
one percentage point by 2022 (to
2.7%) would increase physical gold
holdings to an estimated 2,524
tonnes.
Elsewhere gold is increasingly
being used in the financial system
as a source of high-quality collateral.
Its lack of credit and counterparty
risk allied to its depth of liquidity
make it ideal for this purpose.
Banking on gold – new trends
in reserve asset management
Preserving wealth
8. China is the only one of the world’s six largest
economies that does not have reserve currency
status. Yet the country has the second largest
economy in the world, and its share of world trade has
increased threefold in the past decade. China plans to
internationalise its currency, the renminbi, over the
next ten years.
The renminbi is thus a candidate to play a greater role
as an alternative reserve asset. Uncertainties around
the renminbi relate to China’s exchange rate policy
(gradually more flexible since 2005, but still tightly
controlled) and accessibility (sales are restricted to
about 190 institutions including 13 government
purchasers, or through Hong Kong).
In a study conducted for the World Gold Council,
international finance think-tank OMFIF argues that the
renminbi is likely to emerge gradually as a genuine
international currency as Beijing eases restrictions on
its use in transactions and investments abroad.
This, the body argues, will enhance the role of gold in
the international monetary system in the coming 10
years of rebalancing. Any setbacks to the renminbi’s
rise as a reserve currency will benefit gold as a result
of doubts about the overall strength of world
monetary arrangements.
The renminbi – gold’s pivotal role
“As China weighs up its
options for joining in the
reserve asset game, gold – the
official asset that plays no
formal part in the monetary
system, yet has never really
gone away – is poised, yet
again, to play a pivotal role. …
no other reserve asset seems
safe from impact of the change
in the dollar’s value.”
Professor Lord (Meghnad) Desai,
Chairman of the OMFIF Advisory Board
8
9. Aspiration drives rising
consumer demand for
jewellery
Luxury is being restyled. In
the US, increases in
heirloom and gifting have
recently seen their biggest
year on year increase in
seven years. New
consumers in Asia are
inspiring new designs and
innovations in jewellery
buoyed by the shift in
global economic power
toward the East. For this
market the only way is up
– to the high end – where
beautiful craftsmanship
and value justify status
purchases.
9
Rising aspirations
10. 10
The bottom line is this:
a new force in gold is
growing in the East and
has already eclipsed the
West.
This is the new world. If
you want to understand
how it is changing, both
socially and
economically, then the
rising interest in gold in
the world’s fastest
growing economies is a
good place to look.
New affluence driving
growth
In these countries, a
firmly rooted cultural
affinity for gold is being
reshaped and
reinvented by affluence
and the social power of
the millennial consumer
(aged 16-31).
Connected by social
media, and enjoying
new spending
power their parents
never had, this
increasingly influential
generation is building
on a rich heritage to
shape events in their
personal image.
Asia’s millennial generation
Rising aspirations
Annual jewellery demand in India
and China vs US and Europe
Source: Thomson Reuters GFMS,
World Gold Council
1 Europe comprises 3 major
markets: Italy, UK and France
11. 11
The past ten years have seen a
consolidation in demand for gold in
western developed economies at
the top end of the luxury market. A
2012 study by the World Gold
Council into global consumer
attitudes revealed a shift in the
market segmentation among
consumers of gold in western
developed economies.
Among high net value individuals,
from the exclusive boutiques of
New York and Los Angeles, to the
refined shopping arcades of London,
Paris and Milan, gold is about
status. The price of gold can be a
further justification for purchasing it
because it is more clearly defined as
an aspirational product with implied
accessibility only to the most
successful.
But even among those who are not
the highest earners there is a desire
to buy fewer but better pieces, to
avoid compromising quality at all
costs. Gold’s timeless appeal plays
into this, if you are buying
something for ever then you should
buy the best.
While gold wedding rings remain an
ever-present phenomenon in the
West and leverage this timeless
value, gold jewellery to be worn on
other occasions is proving
increasingly popular. The higher
concentration of gold in luxury
products has been accompanied by
a new wave of creativity in the
design of gold jewellery. This has
broadened the range and potential
of jewellery items.
Status and aspiration
‘Gold is an aspirational product
with deep cultural heritage. Yet
it offers the creative flexibility to
express a lifetime of important
moments, both formal and
informal.’
Rising aspirations
12. Gold continues to drive the
nanotechnology revolution
At the nanoscale, gold
displays unique properties
which scientists around the
world are still unraveling.
While the bulk metal is one
of the most stable and
durable substances known
to man, nanoparticles of
gold can act as a catalyst
making chemical reactions
work hundreds of times
faster.
Gold is also at the heart of
diagnostic kits for diseases
such as malaria and
HIV/AIDS, and its
biocompatibility make it
ideal for delivering drugs
inside the human body.
Little wonder that patents
for nanotechnology research
using gold continue to soar.
12
Scientific breakthroughs
13. 13
Gold, desired for its beauty since
ancient times, is now helping shape the
future of technology. At the ‘nano–
scale’, gold has newly discovered
properties and is one of the most
promising nano–materials. Of the
approximately 65,000 research papers
on ‘nanoparticles’ listed in PubMed
since 1978, more than 15% relate to
gold. The majority were written within
the last five years.
Gold nanoparticles can be as small as 1
billionth of a metre in diameter. At this
size the metal takes on a completely
different set of properties. It can help
accelerate chemical processes through
catalysis, and may help fight deadly
diseases such as cancer, HIV/AIDS and
malaria.
A catalyst for improved health
and environment
Gold nanotechnology related
patents published, by year
Source: Johnson Matthey, World
Gold Council
Scientific breakthroughs
14. Malaria, a curable disease,
killed an estimated 660,000
people in 2010. However,
reliable and cost-effective
diagnostic kits are improving
the situation for many people
in remote parts of the world.
Public health groups such as
the Foundation for Innovative
New Diagnostics (FIND) help
to distribute thousands of test
kits to front-line health clinics
in remote villages. The kits
exploit tiny flecks of nanogold
to drive a simple colour
change on the test when the
patient is infected with
malaria.
Gold, one of Africa’s richest
natural resources, can now
play a role in tackling some of
its greatest health scourges.
Gold for health:
tackling infectious disease
worldwide
Air and water purified by
gold
Until relatively recently,
the technological potential
of gold was being
exploited only by the
electronics industry, and
dentists. But
nanotechnology has
changed all that.
The discovery, in 1987,
that tiny particles of gold
can speed up chemical
reactions was startling for
scientists. Gold is used to
make jewellery precisely
because it is inert and will
not tarnish, as it does not
react with water or
oxygen. Initially, simple
systems were investigated
(such as the efficient
removal of the poisonous
gas carbon monoxide), but
now complex issues, such
as water purification, are
being tackled.
Scientific breakthroughs
14
15. Innovation in gold creates
new business opportunities
Investing in gold has
become a possibility for
many more people in the
last decade. Formerly
restricted gold markets
have been liberalised.
Affordable investment
products have emerged
for lower to middle
income families. This
trend provides new
business opportunities
for go-ahead
organisations. They can
tap into latent demand for
reliable savings vehicles
across the developed
West and the powerhouse
economies of the East, by
developing new channels
and products to bring
gold to investors
and consumers across
the world.
15
Putting gold to work
16. The gold market has opened up dramatically to
investors in recent years, thanks to liberalisation
in countries where gold sales were once
restricted, and the emergence of a growing
range of investment products affordable to lower
and middle income families.
This provides new opportunities for financial
institutions and partners to work with the World
Gold Council on developing new channels and
products to bring gold to consumers.
Once only governments and large institutions
traded gold, leaving the retail investor out of the
picture. Today any investor can buy gold or gain
exposure to gold price movements.
As well as gold coins and bars, physical gold
exchange-traded funds (ETFs), internet gold
investment channels, and retail gold investment
options in Asia are innovations that have
responded to growing demand in the market
over the last decade.
‘Democratising’ gold
investment products
Gold global allocations
Fixed income
Equities
Money markets
Alternative
investments
Gold
16
Putting gold to work
Source: TBIS, Hedge Fund
Research, J.P. Morgan, Preqin,
Thomson Reuters GFMS, World
Federation of Exchanges, World
Gold Council
17. You cannot buck the market, and in the East the market is
growing fast. Demand does not stem from any sense of
nostalgia. New consumers in both India and China are
exploring the potential for gold in a contemporary setting.
This is all part of a familiar global trend, of course. The
growing powerhouses of China and India are driving demand
for many different goods and services. Gold is no exception.
To understand the two largest markets for gold in the world,
you have to bear in mind their particular investment cultures,
as well as recent liberalisation and modernisation.
Up until 2002, the market in China was tightly regulated, from
production through to retail distribution. Now the market is
more open. Many consumers are better off, and higher
savings rates amongst private individuals are generating
strong demand.
Chinese consumers are looking to gold to protect new wealth
in a world of fluctuating and uncertain currency movements.
China is now the second largest consumer of gold in the
world. Demand for gold has risen at an average rate of 26% a
year for the last five years.
Asia rising:
gold in India and China Middle class population
growth
17
Source: McKinsey Global
Institute
Putting gold to work
18. A global economic
contribution worth over
US$210 billion
According to a new report by
PricewaterhouseCoopers
(PwC) commissioned by the
World Gold Council, gold
contributed an estimated
US$210 billion to the
economies of the largest
gold-producing and
consuming countries in
2012.
Of that total, large-scale
commercial gold mining
added an estimated US$78
billion, and nearly 530,000
direct jobs.
Large-scale mines are
significant contributors to
economic and social
development, often
providing infrastructure,
healthcare and business
opportunities that can have
a highly positive impact on
communities.
The gold mining industry is
working with governments
to ensure that the benefits of
natural resources deliver
for generations to come.
18
Boosting growth
19. There is a continued appetite for gold.
Approximately 60% of annual gold supply is
newly-mined. This gold should be responsibly
produced, to high environmental, and health and
safety standards and not fuel unlawful armed
conflict. At the same time, investors and
consumers of gold are increasingly recognising
that responsible gold mining can be a major driver
of social and economic development. Indeed,
70% of new gold production originates in non-
OECD countries.
Supporting national wealth creation
The potential development gains from gold
mining are considerable. Research by PwC for
the World Gold Council shows that gold mining
contributed over US$78 billion to the economies
of the top 15 mining countries in 2012,
constituting a significant part of the economy in
countries as diverse as Mexico, Ghana and
Uzbekistan. Gold mining leads to jobs, foreign
direct investment and foreign exchange – in 2012
it accounted for 36% of all Tanzanian
merchandise exports and 26% of exports from
Papua New Guinea.
Responsible mining
delivers for developing countries
19
Boosting growth
‘A study of four major gold
mines in Peru showed that
the four largest gold mining
companies purchase 90% of
the goods and services they
need from Peruvian-based
companies. Non-mining
districts had on average 17%
more poverty and 12% more
extreme poverty compared
with gold mining districts.’
more poverty in
non–mining districts
17%
more extreme poverty compared
with gold mining districts
12%
procurement needs met
by Peruvian companies
90%
20. Gold map: unmined gold
20
Boosting growth
*United States Geological Survey data shows
significant untapped potential in developing
economies of the global South.
Gross National Income per
person*
Source: www.goldfacts.org, US
Geological Survey
21. 21
We live in an interdependent, networked world, where
success is shaped by the relationships we make. The
World Gold Council has taken this to heart, developing
commercial and business partnerships with top
organisations and institutions that create structural shifts
in demand for gold.
At the centre of the world’s financial markets you find
gold. Our global research provides investment insights,
illustrating gold’s strength as an asset class and a
preserver of wealth.
We engage with governments and supranational
organisations. We work with central banks to
demonstrate how gold can help meet their strategic
reserve management objectives. Half of the global
demand for gold is driven by vibrant jewellery markets
worldwide. With our partners we shape the future.
Gold mining contributes to national economies and local
communities across the world, enabling the
development of infrastructure such as schools, hospitals
and transport. The world of gold is dynamic, resilient and
varied. It is our privilege to play a part in a world
advanced by gold.
Working in partnership
The World Gold Council
22. Advancing the case for gold – our track record
22
The World Gold Council
• Conflict-Free Gold Standard, the first industry-led code to define responsible mining in conflict-affected areas
• SPDR® Gold Shares (GLD), the largest physical bullion-backed exchange-traded fund (ETF)
• ICBC Gold Accumulation Plan gold-backed savings accounts, with over 5 million accounts in China
• India Post retailing Swiss-manufactured 24-karat gold coins in over 950 post offices pan-India
• Reliance Capital My Gold Plan, a unique opportunity to save gold on a regular basis in India
• Azva, the new Indian wedding jewellery brand reinvigorating a core category across India.
• UC Berkeley executive education of the world’s senior central bankers
• Pioneered the use of gold in automotive emission control with leading industrial innovators
• Authoritative insights into the world’s gold markets
23. World Gold Council
10 Old Bailey, London EC4M 7NG
United Kingdom
T +44 20 7826 4700
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W www.gold.org