Commodity report by ways2 capital 07 july 2014

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WEEKLY COMMODITY REPORT

NCDEX DAILY AND WEEKLY LEVELS
DALLY EXPIRY
DATE
R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 18-JULY-14 713.10 706.30 698.50 695.40 691.50 688.70 684.30 677.20 670.40
SYBEANIDR 18-JULY-14 4231 4140 4149 4007 3958 3916 3867 3776 3682
RMSEED 18-JULY-14 3632 3582 3536 3516 3488 3468 3440 3392 3322
JEERAUNJHA 18-JULY-14 11856 11636 11416 11302 11196 11083 10976 10756 10536
DHANIYA 18-JULY-14 12622 12153 11684 11507 11215 11038 10746 10277 9808
CASTORSEED 18-JULY-14 4694 4557 4420 4362 4283 4255 4146 4009 3874
WEEKLY EXPIRY
DATE
R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4
SYOREFIDR 18-JULY-14 739.20 724.50 709.60 700.10 694.80 685.20 679.50 664.10 .649.80
SYBEANIDR 18-JULY-14 4613 4406 4199 4082 3992 3875 3785 3578 3371
RMSEED 18-JULY-14 3820 3716 3612 3554 3508 3450 3404 3300 3196
JEERAUNJHA 18-JULY-14 12423 12023 11623 11406 11223 11006 10823 10423 10023
DHANIYA 18-JULY-14 13030 12408 11786 11558 11164 10936 10548 9920 9298
CASTORSEED 18-JULY-14 5316 4993 4670 4487 4347 4164 4024 3701 3378
SYOREFIDR 18-JULY-14 739.20 724.50 709.60 700.10 694.80 685.20 679.50 664.10 .649.80

NCDEX WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
CHANA
MCX WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
Important News
• US nonfarm payroll moved to 288K vs 224K prev (rev 217K).
• Unemployment rate in US moves down to 6.1% vs 6.3% prev
• ECB ready to create money in future if needed, says ECB chief Mario.
• Indian Rupee was weak against US dollar and is currently trading at 59.9000.
Precious Metals
U.S. Comex gold futures for August delivery remained down by 0.77%. Gold for August
delivery on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) remained at `27,464/10gms and
silver moved down to`44,847/kg Gold was steady on Friday after sharp overnight
losses, but the metal was at risk of further declines as strong U.S. jobs data and record
highs on Wall Street dented bullion's safehaven appeal. .employment growth jumped
in June and the jobless rate closed in on a sixyear low, decisive evidence the economy
was growing briskly heading into the second half of the year. A plan by India's central
bank to swap old gold in its vaults for purer metal abroad that it could pledge or sell
would have the added benefits of reducing gold imports and easing pressure on the
balance of payments. Chinese gold imports could fall by up to 400 tonnes this year as
the government tightens controls on gold financing deals and domestic demand softens.
Base Metals
In New York, COMEX copper for June delivery stayed up 0.38% for the day. Three
month copper on the London Metal Exchange copper was up by 0.55% at $7173 a
tonne. London copper rose on Friday and was set to forge its biggest weekly climb in
nine months, as an upbeat U.S. jobs report fired optimism over economic growth. The
global economy ended the first half on a high as business activity picked up in June,
with new orders pouring in at their fastest rate in over three years. U.S. employment
growth jumped in June and the jobless rate closed in on a sixyear low, decisive
evidence the economy was growing briskly heading into the second half of the year. We
expect copper prices to remain further high for the next week as positive data from US

and supply constraints can push the copper prices higher. Other base metals can follow
copper and can move in range to higher for the day.
Energy
Crude Oil U.S. crude oil futures settled down by 0.40% at $104.06 per barrel. U.S.
crude futures are set to post their biggest weekly loss in a month on receding worries
about supply from Libya and Iran, although expectations of an improvement in the
outlook for demand in the world's top oil consumer checked losses. Iran has reduced
demands for the size of its future nuclear enrichment programme in talks with world
powers although Western governments are urging Tehran to compromise further.
Militants from the Islamic State group seized control of Syria's largest oil field from
rival Islamist fighters on Thursday, strengthening its advance across the eastern Deir al
Zor province. We expect Crude oil prices to remain in a range for the next week as
supply ease & easing tensions can pressure the Crude prices.
Natural Gas – U.S. natural gas futures ended up 1 percent on Thursday after the
government reported a big storage build that matched but did not exceed expectations,
while nextday gas in New York fell to a twoyear low on forecasts of weaker demand.
Frontmonth gas futures on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed up 4.9 cents, or
1.1 percent, at $4.406 per million British thermal units. Utilities added 100 billion cubic
feet of gas into storage last week. We expect Natural gas to remain in a range to down
for the next week.
Some Important data set to be release in Upcoming Week.
CNY
CPI y/y
PPI y/y
Trade Balance
USA
JOLTS Job Openings
FOMC Member Kocherlakota Speaks
FOMC Meeting Minutes
Unemployment Cliams
Crude Oil inventory

Natural Gas inventory
Fed Chair Yellen Speaks
NCDEX WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS
MANSOON WATCH
• Monsoon progress this week however remains critical. Sowing of Kharif Pulses
are likely to get adversely affected if delayed and below normal Monsoon is
maintained.
• Drought like conditions and heat wave delaying sowing of most crops, monsoon
rains were 43% below normal till date
SETELITE IMAGE OF INDIAN WHETHER CONDITION AS ON 04/07/2014 9.15
A.M.

CHANA
Chana traded in a range bound as no strong Fundamental report emerged in the
mandis. With Monsoon set to recover in 12 days, as per IMD reports, the uptrend may
be limited for Pulses as a whole.
Sentiments continue to remain very volatile based on this factor. Uptrend however
seems limited for the counter as Govt aggressively focusses on controlling Price rise and
an improved Monsoon prospect could keep overall Pulses sentiments weak .
Higher Pulses production for 201314 has been keeping sentiments weak so far. As per
3rd Advanced crop estimates by Govt of India, India is likely to produce record Food
grains in 201314 at Chana (9.93MT) and overall Pulses at a record 19.57 MT.
On International front, Australian Chana production reportedly has fallen by 23%. A
fall in Dollar vs Re has kept the import cost of Pulses from Myanmar, Australia and
Canada low resulting in further weakening of market sentiments.
SOYABEAN / REFI.SOYA
Soybean acres were estimated at 84.8 million acres, 2.6 million acres above the trade
estimate. Soybean stocks were estimated at 405 million bushels. The average trade
estimate was 378 million bushels.
South west monsoon is causing concern in soybean growing areas, as there has not
been any significant development and next two weeks will be crucial in deciding the
production figures. The prices in mandis also remained firm with steady off take. The
international markets are bearish as US farmers are planting record soybean and some
support can be seen ahead of the long weekend in US.
As per Solvent Extractors’ Association of India, the oil seed sowing is down by 4.22
lakh hectares compared to last year during the same period and Soybean sowing is
lower by 0.76 lakh hectares.
The soy oil remained under pressure due to excess supplies from imports. As per
Solvent Extractors Association of India (SEA) data bank, there has been a significant
increase in imports of Soy oil, sunflower oil & Rape oil and drop in imports of Palm oil,
for last seven months of edible oil marketing year (Nov Oct).
Exports of soybean oil from the top four shipping countries rose to 4.486 million tons
from October through May, 5.2 percent higher than a year earlier. India’s purchases
jumped 88 percent to 1.279 million tons, making it the world’s biggest importer. Iran,
normally a major buyer of soybean oil, didn’t import any during April and May amid

large stockpiles and attractive prices for competing sunflower oil. Purchases by China
and Egypt have also been considerably reduced recently.
CUMIN SEED (JEERA)
Moderate recovery was observed for Jeera as trading activities improved in the mandis.
Unjha mandi rates traded firm as Exports rose. Low arrivals further supported the
prices. Any further pickup in Exports in coming days (as expected) could perk up prices
further in the near term.
Traders expect the downtrend to remain limited as Exports are expected to pick up in
coming weeks at these lower levels. A firmness in Dollar vs Re could be beneficial for
the Exporters.
Low stocks in global trade and political unrest in Turkey and Syria have pushed export
demand to India. India will remain the primary exporter for this commodity as of now.
Cumin seed or jeera production in India is expected to rise to 6.57 million bags of 55
kg each in the year 2014, from 4.55 million bags a year earlier, due to an expanded
area under cultivation and favorable weather conditions.

This Document has been prepared by Ways2Capital (A Division of High Brow Market
Research Investment Advisory Pvt Ltd). The information, analysis and estimates
contained herein are based on Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research assessment
and have been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. This document is meant
for the use of the intended recipient only. This document, at best, represents
Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research opinion and is meant for general
information only. Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research, its directors, officers or
employees shall not in any way to be responsible for the contents stated herein.
Ways2Capital Equity/Commodities Research expressly disclaims any and all liabilities
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Commodity report by ways2 capital 07 july 2014

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Commodity report by ways2 capital 07 july 2014