The document provides Covid-19 insights for visiting St. Pete/Clearwater as of multiple dates in early April 2020. Beaches and hotels remain open but all events are cancelled and residents are urged to practice social distancing to prevent the spread of the virus.
March witnessed a historic drop in air traffic as COVID-19 travel restrictions expanded and demand for air travel evaporated. The total number of flights tracked by Flightradar24 in March 2020 was 4,294,685, down 21.6% from 2019. Commercial flights tracked in March were 27.7% lower than 2019. But monthly figures don’t capture the full picture.
https://www.flightradar24.com/blog/tracking-marchs-historic-drop-in-air-traffic/?utm_campaign=website&utm_source=sendgrid.com&utm_medium=email
The impact of COVID-19 on air traffic took hold in the third week of January when traffic in China experienced a nearly 75% decline. After falling more than 80% by mid-February, in the final week of February into the first week in March, traffic in China recovered to 40% of normal.
European declines began in Italy in the fourth week of February, but were limited until the second week in March when global air traffic began to grind to a halt. In the first week of March, total global traffic was still up 4.5% compared to 2019. In the final week of March, total flights tracked by Flightradar24 were 55.7% fewer than 2019.
Commercial traffic levels declined below 2019 in early February, but trended upwards into early March before plummeting. In total, commercial traffic was down 27.7% below 2019 levels for March, but again full month figures fail to capture the dramatic decline in the latter half of March. In the first week of March, commercial traffic was down 3.9% below 2019 levels. In the final week of March, commercial traffic declined 62.9% from the same period in 2019.
Adara
Graph shows March to summer, searches able to track in the system, how does this compare to similar searches to last year
Adara
From last week see a over 50% year over year demand decrease
Adara
Still down 25% down at end of summer, but a gentile optimism that the end of summer might see some increase.
Oxford economics Adam Sacks update 4/2/2020
Oxford economics Adam Sacks update 4/2/2020
Oxford economics Adam Sacks update 4/2/2020
Oxford economics Adam Sacks update 4/2/2020
Jobs highest risk in travel industry
Unemployment to surge to 12%
All depends on duration
Given trajectory should be in double digits within a month or two
Oxford economics Adam Sacks update 4/2/2020
Hourly cut in half in the last week or two,
The amount of hours is over 50%
Oxford economics Adam Sacks update 4/2/2020
53% of households do not have any emergency savings
About 2/3 don’t have any EF faced with a troubling time and will be applying for the unemployment
Shows the importance to supply massive stimulus
Oxford economics Adam Sacks update 4/2/2020
Oxford economics Adam Sacks update 4/2/2020
The elements going to make the big difference, house payments, company loans and grants
More to come
Oxford economics Adam Sacks update 4/2/2020
Oxford economics Adam Sacks update 4/2/2020
Add that all up, we have already topped that all together with the CARES act, and there are more to come, policy makers are taking this serious and warrants how serious this is, the current projections 400 billion dollars hit this year
Oxford economics Adam Sacks update 4/2/2020
Move into the summer months
Hopefully loosening of restrictions and movement of some travel
Still down but it is something
Overall, STR show 50% of room decline y/y
Next year 80% increase
Oxford economics Adam Sacks update 4/2/2020
Expect a huge rebound in 2021
Oxford economics Adam Sacks update 4/2/2020
Annual occ and ADR
ADR will be stickier and take longer to claim into 2022
Oxford economics Adam Sacks update 4/2/2020
GDP and consumer demand, investment activity, and international trade, growth in 2021 is going to be remarkable, not unusual
Shorter length stays and shorter length of stay are the first to come
Reflects a travelers aversion to risk
Will see those come back first and gradually extend
Oxford economics Adam Sacks update 4/2/2020
New webinar
When you don’t flatten the curve, exacerbates the mortality rate and puts stress on the health system
Working within the limits of the system, units of bed and intensive cares, then you see the other problems
What to flatten the recession curve by doing massive stimulus
Oxford economics Adam Sacks update 4/2/2020
Are is the great recession, cant compare but
Oxford economics Adam Sacks update 4/2/2020
In a recession now
Pattern holds
Asia europe occupancy driven
United states in the sharp delcinein demannd and occ
Lack of sharp occupancy decline,
A lot more is us and lack of federal lockdown in the us, is going to take much longer and state by state cases
Who is still traveling?
Trucker on highway, people self quarantine away from family
Healthcare workers staying close to hospital not want to effect household
Look at 2007 and the 2008 financial crisis
Took 6 years not thinking about inflation
So about 7 years
Not a V shaped recovery