Charts of interest 24 04 15

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Trading Game Pty Ltd

A weekly look at commodity, FX, index and equity markets highlighting those instruments that I find interesting.

Economy & Finance

Trading Game Blog
Charts of Interest Week Ending 24/04/2015
www.tradinggame.com.au

These are charts that are interesting to me. They form part of my trading
universe.
I take a simple view of trading in that you buy what is trending up, you sell what is
trending down and you don’t bet the farm.
As you can see I don’t think it is as hard as everyone makes out.

Unfortunately Slideshare is killing the resolution of the charts.
High resolution versions can be found here -
http://tradinggame.com.au/category/blog/

Too often traders spend their day telling the
market what it should do, rather than
listening to what the market is telling them
to do.
S&P/ASX 200

S&P/ASX 200 Cumulative Advance-Decline Line

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‘Bullshitters’ are individuals who claim knowledge or expertise in an area where they actually have little experience or skill. Despite this being a well-known and widespread social phenomenon, relatively few large-scale empirical studies have been conducted into this issue. This paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature by examining teenagers’ propensity to claim expertise in three mathematics constructs that do not really exist. Using Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) data from nine Anglophone countries and over 40,000 young people, we find substantial differences in young people’s tendency to bullshit across countries, genders and socio-economic groups. Bullshitters are also found to exhibit high levels of overconfidence and believe they work hard, persevere at tasks, and are popular amongst their peers. Together this provides important new insight into who bullshitters are and the type of survey responses that they provide.

Bullshiters - Who Are They And What Do We Know About Their Lives

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Abstract. This paper analyzes the supply and demand for Bitcoinbased Ponzi schemes. There are a variety of these types of scams: from long cons such as Bitcoin Savings & Trust to overnight doubling schemes that do not take off. We investigate what makes some Ponzi schemes successful and others less so. By scouring 11 424 threads on bitcointalk.org, we identify 1 780 distinct scams. Of these, half lasted a week or less. Using survival analysis, we identify factors that affect scam persistence. One approach that appears to elongate the life of the scam is when the scammer interacts a lot with their victims, such as by posting more than a quarter of the comments in the related thread. By contrast, we also find that scams are shorter-lived when the scammers register their account on the same day that they post about their scam. Surprisingly, more daily posts by victims is associated with the scam ending sooner.

Analyzing the Bitcoin Ponzi Scheme Ecosystem

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Physiological changes occur with aging in all organ systems. The cardiac output decreases, blood pressure increases and arteriosclerosis develops. The lungs show impaired gas exchange, a decrease in vital capacity and slower expiratory flow rates. The creatinine clearance decreases with age although the serum creatinine level remains relatively constant due to a proportionate age-related decrease in creatinine production. Functional'changes, largely related to altered motility patterns, occur in the gastrointestinal system with senescence, and atrophic gastritis and altered hepatic drug metabolism are common in the elderly. Progressive elevation of blood glucose occurs with age on a multifactorial basis and osteoporosis is frequently seen due 'to a linear decline in bone mass after the fourth decade. The epidermis of the skin atrophies with age and due to changes in collagen and elastin the skin loses its tone and elasticity. Lean body mass declines with ag'e and this is primarily due to loss and atrophy of muscle cells. Degenerative changes occur in many joints and this, combined with the loss of muscle mass, inhibits elderly patients locomotion. These changes with age have important practical implications for the clinical management of elderly patients: metabolism is altered, changes in response to commonly used drugs make different drug dosages necessary and there is need for rational preventive programs of diet and exercise in an effort to delay or reverse some of these changes.

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A Brief Introduction to the Basics of Game Theory

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The paper opens with an overview of the commodity trading advisor (CTA) sector, highlighting the significant growth that has taken place in the managed futures industry in recent years and explaining how the managed futures strategies that CTAs employ work in practice. The breadth of sub-strategies under the managed futures umbrella are then examined. The third part of the paper examines the benefits and perceived risks to investors of allocating to managed futures strategies and also addresses various common misunderstandings about CTAs. The paper concludes by exploring the common ways as to how investors can access the various investment strategies that are available

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Financial decisions are among the most important life-shaping decisions that people make. We review facts about financial decisions and what cognitive and neural processes influence them. Because of cognitive constraints and a low average level of financial literacy, many household decisions violate sound financial principles. Households typically have underdiversified stock holdings and low retirement savings rates. Investors overextrapolate from past returns and trade too often. Even top corporate managers, who are typically highly educated, make decisions that are affected by overconfidence and personal history. Many of these behaviors can be explained by well-known principles from cognitive science. A boom in high-quality accumulated evidence–especially how practical, low-cost ‘nudges’ can improve financial decisions–is already giving clear guidance for balanced government regulation

The Psychology and Neuroscience of Financial Decision Making

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Four different tests of 63 people found that those who kept their intentions private were more likely to achieve them than those who made them public and were acknowledged by others. Once you've told people of your intentions, it gives you a “premature sense of completeness.” You have “identity symbols” in your brain that make your self-image. Since both actions and talk create symbols in your brain, talking satisfies the brain enough that it “neglects the pursuit of further symbols.”

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Recently, researchers have gone a step further from just documenting biases of individual investors. More and more studies analyze how experience affects decisions and whether biases are eliminated by trading experience and learning. A necessary condition to learn is that investors actually know what happened in the past and that the views of the past are not biased. We contribute to the above mentioned literature by showing why learning and experience go hand in hand. Inexperienced investors are not able to give a reasonable self-assessment of their own past realized stock portfolio performance which impedes investors’ learning ability. Based on the answers of 215 online broker investors to an internet questionnaire, we analyze whether investors are able to correctly estimate their own realized stock portfolio performance. We show that investors are hardly able to give a correct estimate of their own past realized stock portfolio performance and that experienced investors are better able to do so. In general, we can conclude that we find evidence that investor experience lessens the simple mathematical error of estimating portfolio returns, but seems not to influence their “behavioral” mistakes pertaining to how good (in absolute sense or relative to other investors) they are.

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Companies that awarded their Chief Executive Officers (CEOs) higher equity incentives had below-median returns based on a sample of 429 large-cap U.S. companies observed from 2006 to 2015. On a 10-year cumulative basis, total shareholder returns of those companies whose total summary pay (the level that must be disclosed in the summary tables of proxy statements) was below their sector median outperformed those companies where pay exceeded the sector median by as much as 39%.1

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We show that a one-off incentive to bias advice has a persistent effect on advisers’ own actions and their future recommendations. In an experiment, advisers obtained information about a set of three differently risky investment options to advise less informed clients. The riskiest option was designed such that it is only preferred by risk-seeking individuals. When advisers are offered a bonus for recommending this option, half of them recommend it. In contrast, in a control group without the bonus only four percent recommend it. After the bonus was removed, its effect remained. In a second recommendation for the same options but without a bonus, those advisers who had previously faced it are almost six times more likely to recommend the riskiest option compared to the control group. A similar increase is found when advisers make the same choice for themselves. To explain our results we provide a theory based on advisers trying to uphold a positive self-image of being incorruptible. Maintaining a positive self-image then forces them to be consistent in the advice they give, even if it is biased

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People

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Gender equality has made great strides in the past 50 years. It is no longer acceptable to restrict women’s access to education or employment opportunities. The principle that female talent, ambition and thinking should be rewarded has taken root in most walks of life, even if full parity with men is a distant prospect. Yet in fund management the march to equality may be long. Women make up only one in ten of the individuals employed to look after investors’ money. Just 7% of the funds sold to the public around the world are run by a woman. Fund management groups are striving to increase their recruitment of women, which bodes well for the future. Yet, as Katharine Dixon, head of research at Citywire, and Helena Morrissey, chief executive of Newton Investment Management, both comment here, our loss today is the absence of the skilled women fund managers who never made it through. There is a positive message from our report, however. For the first time we show not only where women fund managers are working, we also highlight those delivering ‘alpha’ returns that could be the envy of some of their male colleagues.

Female Fund Managers 2016

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Investors always try to make rational decision while analyzing and interpreting information collected from various sources for different investment avenues to arrive at an optimal investment decision. But at the same time they are influenced by various psychological factors that influence them internally and bias their investment decision. Linter (1998) studied the various factors that influence internally the informed investment decision and included them under the discipline of behavioural finance. Behavioural finance studies how people make investment decision and influenced by internal factors and bias. The main purpose of the paper is to assess impact of behavioural factors over mutual fund investment decision made by investors in Raipur city.

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When their understanding of the basics of bicycle design was assessed objectively, people were found to make frequent and serious mistakes, such as believing that the chain went around the front wheel as well as the back wheel. Errors were reduced but not eliminated for bicycle experts, for men more than women, and for people who were shown a real bicycle as they were tested. The results demonstrate that most people’s conceptual understanding of this familiar, everyday object is sketchy and shallow, even for information that is frequently encountered and easily perceived. This evidence of a minimal and even inaccurate causal understanding is inconsistent with that of strong versions of explanation-based (or theory-based) theories of categorization.

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Abstract: We investigate whether short sellers are subject to the disposition effect using a novel dataset that allows to identify the closing of short positions. Consistent with the disposition effect, short sellers are more likely to close a position the higher their capital gains. Furthermore, stocks with high short sale capital gains experience negative returns, suggesting that their disposition effect has an effect on stock prices. A trading strategy based on this finding achieves significant three-factor alphas. Overall, short sellers’ behavioral biases limit their ability to arbitrage away the mispricing caused by the disposition effect of other market participants.

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