Charts of interest 10 10 14

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Trading Game Pty Ltd

A look at some of the instruments that make up my trading universe. Covering currencies, commodities and major indices.

Trading Game Blog
Charts of Interest Week Ending 10/10/2014
www.tradinggame.com.au

These are charts that are interesting to me. They form part of my trading
universe.
I take a simple view of trading in that you buy what is trending up, you sell what
is trending down and you don’t bet the farm.
As you can see I don’t think it is as hard as everyone makes out.

Natural Gas C CCB

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‘Bullshitters’ are individuals who claim knowledge or expertise in an area where they actually have little experience or skill. Despite this being a well-known and widespread social phenomenon, relatively few large-scale empirical studies have been conducted into this issue. This paper attempts to fill this gap in the literature by examining teenagers’ propensity to claim expertise in three mathematics constructs that do not really exist. Using Programme for International Student Assessment (PISA) data from nine Anglophone countries and over 40,000 young people, we find substantial differences in young people’s tendency to bullshit across countries, genders and socio-economic groups. Bullshitters are also found to exhibit high levels of overconfidence and believe they work hard, persevere at tasks, and are popular amongst their peers. Together this provides important new insight into who bullshitters are and the type of survey responses that they provide.

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Abstract. This paper analyzes the supply and demand for Bitcoinbased Ponzi schemes. There are a variety of these types of scams: from long cons such as Bitcoin Savings & Trust to overnight doubling schemes that do not take off. We investigate what makes some Ponzi schemes successful and others less so. By scouring 11 424 threads on bitcointalk.org, we identify 1 780 distinct scams. Of these, half lasted a week or less. Using survival analysis, we identify factors that affect scam persistence. One approach that appears to elongate the life of the scam is when the scammer interacts a lot with their victims, such as by posting more than a quarter of the comments in the related thread. By contrast, we also find that scams are shorter-lived when the scammers register their account on the same day that they post about their scam. Surprisingly, more daily posts by victims is associated with the scam ending sooner.

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Physiological changes occur with aging in all organ systems. The cardiac output decreases, blood pressure increases and arteriosclerosis develops. The lungs show impaired gas exchange, a decrease in vital capacity and slower expiratory flow rates. The creatinine clearance decreases with age although the serum creatinine level remains relatively constant due to a proportionate age-related decrease in creatinine production. Functional'changes, largely related to altered motility patterns, occur in the gastrointestinal system with senescence, and atrophic gastritis and altered hepatic drug metabolism are common in the elderly. Progressive elevation of blood glucose occurs with age on a multifactorial basis and osteoporosis is frequently seen due 'to a linear decline in bone mass after the fourth decade. The epidermis of the skin atrophies with age and due to changes in collagen and elastin the skin loses its tone and elasticity. Lean body mass declines with ag'e and this is primarily due to loss and atrophy of muscle cells. Degenerative changes occur in many joints and this, combined with the loss of muscle mass, inhibits elderly patients locomotion. These changes with age have important practical implications for the clinical management of elderly patients: metabolism is altered, changes in response to commonly used drugs make different drug dosages necessary and there is need for rational preventive programs of diet and exercise in an effort to delay or reverse some of these changes.

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The paper opens with an overview of the commodity trading advisor (CTA) sector, highlighting the significant growth that has taken place in the managed futures industry in recent years and explaining how the managed futures strategies that CTAs employ work in practice. The breadth of sub-strategies under the managed futures umbrella are then examined. The third part of the paper examines the benefits and perceived risks to investors of allocating to managed futures strategies and also addresses various common misunderstandings about CTAs. The paper concludes by exploring the common ways as to how investors can access the various investment strategies that are available

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Financial decisions are among the most important life-shaping decisions that people make. We review facts about financial decisions and what cognitive and neural processes influence them. Because of cognitive constraints and a low average level of financial literacy, many household decisions violate sound financial principles. Households typically have underdiversified stock holdings and low retirement savings rates. Investors overextrapolate from past returns and trade too often. Even top corporate managers, who are typically highly educated, make decisions that are affected by overconfidence and personal history. Many of these behaviors can be explained by well-known principles from cognitive science. A boom in high-quality accumulated evidence–especially how practical, low-cost ‘nudges’ can improve financial decisions–is already giving clear guidance for balanced government regulation

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Recently, researchers have gone a step further from just documenting biases of individual investors. More and more studies analyze how experience affects decisions and whether biases are eliminated by trading experience and learning. A necessary condition to learn is that investors actually know what happened in the past and that the views of the past are not biased. We contribute to the above mentioned literature by showing why learning and experience go hand in hand. Inexperienced investors are not able to give a reasonable self-assessment of their own past realized stock portfolio performance which impedes investors’ learning ability. Based on the answers of 215 online broker investors to an internet questionnaire, we analyze whether investors are able to correctly estimate their own realized stock portfolio performance. We show that investors are hardly able to give a correct estimate of their own past realized stock portfolio performance and that experienced investors are better able to do so. In general, we can conclude that we find evidence that investor experience lessens the simple mathematical error of estimating portfolio returns, but seems not to influence their “behavioral” mistakes pertaining to how good (in absolute sense or relative to other investors) they are.

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