Lesotho and Swaziland have seen an average increase in their respective fuel prices, year on year, of 8%. Both countries import all their fuel from neighbouring South Africa and their currencies run on a par with the South African Rand. Fuel prices in both Swaziland and Lesotho are heavily subsidised by the Government and, therefore, have historically been much lower than prices in South Africa. Due to the close relationship with South Africa, and in line with predictions of an 8% price rise in fuel prices in South Africa, the company suggests a budget increase of 8% in the price of fuel for fleet managers operating in Swaziland and Lesotho.

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Swaziland Fuel Price Trends and Forecast
White Paper – Updated March 2015
(For information purposes only)
Introduction
Swaziland presently imports all required petroleum products from
South Africa who currently provides 40% of Swaziland's imported
energy demand, 90% of which is represented by petroleum
products.
The Ministry of Natural Resources plays a regulatory role in the
petroleum downstream activities, in particular the pricing of all
controlled petroleum products i.e. petrol, diesel and illuminating
paraffin. The Ministry also regulates the number of service stations
in the country through the Petrol Rationalisation Committee,
which achieves its role through the Service Station Rationalisation
Plan (RATPLAN).
A sharp increase in the price of fuel captures both the corporate
sector and private community’s attention and directly impacts
the local economy. More to the point, our corporate sector
clients are struggling to manage rising operational expenditure
and it has become a virtual nightmare to try and
budget/estimate the single biggest expense in the fleet.
In completing more than 50 detailed fleet reviews, the Eqstra
Fleet Consulting team has estimated that fuel now contributes
between 42% and 48% of overall corporate fleet expenditure.
In light of this fact it is worth noting that Swaziland’s fuel price has
increased by more than 100% within the last 15 years. This
equates to an average increase of 7% year on year. Given that
the average CPI over the same period was 9.84%, effectively fuel
increases have surpassed the CPI index by 72%.
.
Pricing of Petroleum Products
The Ministry of Natural resources is responsible for marketing and
distributing fuels. It is also responsible for setting fuel prices.
All regulated petroleum products are presently imported from
South Africa. The objective is to keep petroleum prices
affordable to the public by undermining the volatility in
international oil prices and the Lilangeni/Dollar exchange rate
over which the government has no control.
As a result it takes some time for fuel price movements to be
actioned on the local pump price as the Government takes time
to adjust it. The last Government fuel price release

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was made on 2 December 2014 effective 3 December 2014.
.
03-12-2014
Fuel type/Price Unleaded Petrol 95 Diesel
old E12.60/Litre E12.85/Litre
New E12.20/Litre E12.45/Litre
Calculation of Pump price
It is unclear which methods and policies are in put place by
Government to apply the fuel subsidy. How the local fuel price is
determined is not disclosed to the public.
The graphs below illustrate that historically the local fuel pump
price is lower than South African prices, although due to the
falling international oil price and South Africa’s timely response
thereto, and to the slower response by the Swaziland
Government, this has changed in recent months. These figures
take into account all costs relating to transport, tax, storage and
regional distribution to different petrol stations.
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14
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
RSA Petrol VS Swaziland Petrol pump price
Swaziland Petrol RSA Petrol
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6
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10
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14
1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020
RSA Diesel VS Swaziland Diesel Pump price
Swaziland Diesel RSA Diesel

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Swaziland Oil demand
Figure1: Swaziland Annual Fuel Price 2000 - 2015
Although there was a slight reduction in price during 2014, fuel
has increased on an average of 8% YoY since 2000.
The Swaziland government kept fuel prices unchanged from
January 2013 until March 2014. Although this stance has lowered
inflation, some economists feel this will have an adverse effect
on the economy, as they expect that fuel prices could increase
steeply once the government adjusts for price adjustments.
As at February 2015, the price of fuel is SZL12.20 for leaded and
SZL12.20 for unleaded, with the wholesale price of diesel (0.05%)
at ZSL12.45.
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0.5
1
1.5
2
2.5
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015
ThousandBarrelsperday
year
Swaziland Oil consumption
consumption
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8
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14
1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016
Swaziland Annual Fuel Price 2000-2015
Petrol Diesel

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The Currency Exchange Rate
Source: http://www.oanda.com/currency/historical-rates
Swaziland’s currency exchange rates to the US dollar closely
follows that of South Africa.
The Future
Given the current situation, and taking into account the Brent
Crude Oil predictions and currency exchange factors, we
anticipate that the Swaziland fuel price will increase between 8
– 9% until December 2015. We therefore recommend that an
annual inflation of at least 8% is budgeted for fuel in 2015.
We would also recommend that you review your fleet mix and
operational costs at least every two years to ensure you optimise
cost and efficiency within your fleet.
Should you require any assistance in this regard, please contact
the Fleet Consulting team directly or via your account manager.
All rights reserved. The information contained in this document is confidential and has been prepared by EQSTRA
FLEET CONSULTING solely for information purposes to our strategic clients; it is not to be relied upon by any third party
without our prior written consent.
This report, whilst based on the most realistic information and proven statistical methodologies available to us at
publication, is intended to provide general information. It is not an exhaustive treatment of the subjects raised.
Accordingly, it should not be relied on to address specific situations or circumstances and is not a substitute for
accounting, tax, legal, or other professional advice.
Before making any decision or taking or refraining from any action which might affect your finances or business affairs,
or those of your employees, you should consult a qualified professional adviser to validate.
For more information, please contact Themba Nkambule, +234 706-914-4617 or tnkambule@eqstrafleet.com
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Exchange rate trends USD/SZL and USD/ZAR
USD/SZL USD/ZAR