Presentation for Midwest Political Science Association 2021. Abstract: Why are some autocracies more prone to interstate conflict than others? Recent scholarship on authoritarian politics and international conflict has demonstrated the role of institutional constraints on autocratic leaders and explored the size of leaders’ coalitions. Yet, institutional configurations do not tell us everything we need to know about authoritarian leaders' incentives and constraints. Coalition size alone does not tell us everything about their support groups either. I argue that leaders with programs of ambitious social change pose a higher threat of international conflict than those concerned with less ambitious goals, such as protecting regime elites or personal rent seeking. The ideological vision for social transformation weakens formal and informal institutions, eroding constraints, and empowering regime support groups. Many ideological groups espouse transnational goals. Leaders pay a cost for failing to respond to these demands through some promotion of their autocratic ideology, often by interstate conflict. These inaction costs, which can be understood in the wider context of audience costs in conflict, become a source of conflict and narrow the bargaining range in the event of disputes. The evidence presented demonstrates that autocratic leaders with transformative ideologies are associated with a higher risk of international conflict as a result of ideological inaction costs.

1. Research Question Theory and Hypotheses Results and Analysis Conclusion Additional Slides Relevance Research Design
Autocratic Leadership Ideology and the Risk of
Interstate Conflict: Ideological Supporters and
Audience Costs
Tom Hanna
University of Houston
tlhanna@uh.edu
April 17, 2021
Tom Hanna University of Houston
Ideology, Audience Costs, Conflict Risk

3. Research Question Theory and Hypotheses Results and Analysis Conclusion Additional Slides Relevance Research Design
The Puzzle
Why are some autocracies more prone to
interstate conflict than others?
What is the role of ideology generally and of specific ideologies?
What is the causal mechanism?
Tom Hanna University of Houston
Ideology, Audience Costs, Conflict Risk

4. Research Question Theory and Hypotheses Results and Analysis Conclusion Additional Slides Relevance Research Design
Theory
Transformative Ideologies (TI) have transnational goals
Ideological
Support
Groups
Leader/
Regime
Ideology
Ideological
Conflict
Initiation
Inaction
Costs
Inaction costs incentivize the leader toward conflict
Tom Hanna University of Houston
Ideology, Audience Costs, Conflict Risk

5. Research Question Theory and Hypotheses Results and Analysis Conclusion Additional Slides Relevance Research Design
Major Hypotheses
H1a: TI increases Non-Territorial Revisionist Demands
Rival Hypothesis: Messianic Autocrats - H2a: Interaction
of TI and Charismatic Leadership increases Non-Territorial
Revisionist Demands.
H3: Ideological support group demands effects on conflict are
mediated by leadership adoption of TI.
Tom Hanna University of Houston
Ideology, Audience Costs, Conflict Risk

6. Research Question Theory and Hypotheses Results and Analysis Conclusion Additional Slides Relevance Research Design
The rival hypotheses: H1a vs H2a
Non-Territorial Revisionist Demands
(H1a) (H2a)
Transformative Ideology 0.222∗∗∗ 0.243∗∗∗
(0.042) (0.081)
Ideology*POTL −0.008
Interaction Effect (0.043)
Constant 0.313∗∗∗ 0.314∗∗∗
(0.020) (0.022)
Observations 2,700 2,698
Note: Controls and other variables ∗p<0.1; ∗∗p<0.05; ∗∗∗p<0.01
omitted for space. Controls for democracy, peace years, Cold War, and national capabilities.
Results robust to country and year fixed effects, and random effects model.
Tom Hanna University of Houston
Ideology, Audience Costs, Conflict Risk

7. Research Question Theory and Hypotheses Results and Analysis Conclusion Additional Slides Relevance Research Design
H2
ACME: The mediation effect is significant.
Tom Hanna University of Houston
Ideology, Audience Costs, Conflict Risk

8. Research Question Theory and Hypotheses Results and Analysis Conclusion Additional Slides Relevance Research Design
Remarks
Inaction Costs not Messianic Autocrats
Individual ideologies vary drastically
Conflict is only one tool
Extremism doesn’t preclude utility maximization (rational
leader action)
When ideology is involved, rational leader action is not
peaceful
Tom Hanna University of Houston
Ideology, Audience Costs, Conflict Risk

9. Research Question Theory and Hypotheses Results and Analysis Conclusion Additional Slides Relevance Research Design
Additional Slides from Full
Length Presentation Follow
Tom Hanna University of Houston
Ideology, Audience Costs, Conflict Risk

10. Research Question Theory and Hypotheses Results and Analysis Conclusion Additional Slides Relevance Research Design
Policy Relevance: Extremism vs Charismatic Leadership
Populists and Autocrats: The Dual Threat to Global Democracy
”a nexus of populism and authoritarianism as a major threat to
democracy...”
– Freedom House 2017
Populism in Power Around the World
”...a means of riling their base and dividing societies...”
– The Tony Blair Institute for GLobal Change 2018
The Finding
Don’t worry about charismatic leadership. It’s the Extremism,
Stupid.
Tom Hanna University of Houston
Ideology, Audience Costs, Conflict Risk

11. Research Question Theory and Hypotheses Results and Analysis Conclusion Additional Slides Relevance Research Design
Academic Literature
Brief context
Domestic Politics (Levy 1988;Peceny et al 2001)
Audience Costs (Weeks 2008; Kertzer and Brutger 2016)
Messianic Autocrat - Rival hypothesis (Weerdesteijn 2015;
Weyland 2017)
Tom Hanna University of Houston
Ideology, Audience Costs, Conflict Risk

12. Research Question Theory and Hypotheses Results and Analysis Conclusion Additional Slides Relevance Research Design
Major hypotheses
H0: Transformative Ideology (TI) has no effect on initiation of
interstate conflict.
H1: TI increases initiation of interstate conflict.
H1a: TI increases Non-Territorial Revisionist Demands
H3: Ideological support group demands effects on conflict are
mediated by leadership adoption of TI.
Tom Hanna University of Houston
Ideology, Audience Costs, Conflict Risk

13. Research Question Theory and Hypotheses Results and Analysis Conclusion Additional Slides Relevance Research Design
Rival Hypothesis: Messianic Autocrat
H2: Regime legitimation by Person of the Leader (POTL)
increases Non-Territorial Revisionist Demands.
H2a: Interaction of TI and POTL increases Non-Territorial
Revisionist Demands.
Tom Hanna University of Houston
Ideology, Audience Costs, Conflict Risk

14. Research Question Theory and Hypotheses Results and Analysis Conclusion Additional Slides Relevance Research Design
Research Design
Two parts
1 Addresses H1, H1a, H2, H2a
Uses COW MIDS v. 4 (Kenwick 2013)
Logistic regression with the usual controls and checks
2 Confirms H1
Address H3 with a mediation analyses
Uses the First Use of Violent Force (FUFV) dataset (Caprioli
2006)
Imai, Keele and Tingley mediation package for R
The usual controls and checks
Tom Hanna University of Houston
Ideology, Audience Costs, Conflict Risk

15. Research Question Theory and Hypotheses Results and Analysis Conclusion Additional Slides Relevance Research Design
The End
Tom Hanna University of Houston
Ideology, Audience Costs, Conflict Risk