SlideShare a Scribd company logo
1 of 23
Download to read offline
Think ouTside.




Global
Market Brief
& Labor Risk Index

2012                       ple re porT only
         olog        y sam
m  eThod
Global
                           Market Brief
                           & Labor Risk Index                  2012

This is meThodology sample reporT only.
To subscribe to the global market Brief & labor risk index, visit kellyocg.com/marketbrief
conTenTs
3     preface: Teresa carroll, sVp – centers of excellence, kelly services & ian Bremmer, president, eurasia group

4     methodology

72    about sponsors



     The Americas                                          Asia Pacific                                          Europe and Eurasia                                     Middle East and Africa
6     overview                                        17    overview                                        34     overview                                        60     overview
7     risk index                                      18    risk index                                      35     risk index                                      61     risk index
8     argentina                                       19    australia                                       36     Baltics                                         62     algeria
9     Brazil                                          20    china                                           37     Belgium                                         63     egypt
10    canada                                          21    hong kong                                       38     czech republic                                  64     ghana
11    chile                                           22    india                                           39     denmark                                         65     israel
12    cost rica                                       23    indonesia                                       40     France                                          66     kuwait
13    ecuador                                         24    Japan                                           41     germany                                         67     morocco
14    mexico                                          25    malaysia                                        42     hungary                                         68     Qatar
15    united states                                   26    new Zealand                                     43     ireland                                         69     saudi arabia
                                                      27    pakistan                                        44     italy                                           70     south africa
                                                      28    philippines                                     45     luxembourg                                      71     united arab emirates
                                                      29    singapore                                       46     netherlands
                                                      30    south korea                                     47     norway
                                                      31    Thailand                                        48     poland
                                                      32    Vietnam                                         49     portugal
                                                                                                            50     romania
                                                                                                            51     russia
                                                                                                            52     serbia
                                                                                                            53     spain
                                                                                                            54     sweden
                                                                                                            55     switzerland
                                                                                                            56     Turkey
                                                                                                            57     ukraine
                                                                                                            58     united kingdom

cover: roof of the hans otto Theater in potsdam, germany © Andreas Levers
This material was produced by Eurasia Group in collaboration with Kelly Outsourcing and Consulting Group (KellyOCG®). This is intended as general background research and is not intended
to constitute advice on any particular commercial investment, trade matter, or issue, and should not be relied upon for such purposes. Eurasia Group is a private research and consulting firm.
© 2012 KellyOCG and Eurasia Group.
conTenTs

4 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012                                                                                                                             preFace
                                                                                                                                                                            meThodology
                                                                                                                                                                            The americas
                                                                                                                                                                            asia paciFic


Preface
                                                                                                                                                                            europe
                                                                                           Latin America. European countries      transitions in a decade will result       and eurasia
                                                                                                                                                                            middle easT
                                                                                           will continue to tighten their belts   in conservative policymaking, but         and aFrica
                                                                                           even as that response further slows    major political instability is unlikely   aBouT sponsors
                                                                                           growth. Some countries in Asia will    despite headlines. Elsewhere
                                                                                           have to rely on disaster spending,     in the Asia-Pacific region, leftist
                                                                                           infrastructure development, and        opposition parties look well placed
                                                                                           foreign investment to mitigate
                                                                                                                                  to win a majority in South Korea,
                                                                                           slowing growth. Growth in the
                                                                                                                                  while state elections in India will
                                                                                           global economy will depend on
                                                                                                                                  serve as bellwether for later national
                                                                                           emerging markets nations: China
                                                                                                                                  elections. In Sub-Saharan Africa,
                                                                                           and Indonesia in Asia, Ghana in
                                                                                                                                  elections in Ghana and the ruling
                                                                                           sub-Saharan Africa, and those
                                                                                                                                  party conference in South Africa will
                                                                                           nations in the Middle East whose
                                                                                                                                  set the stage for intensifying labor
                                                  ➔       If 2011 was marked by            economies are supported by
                                                                                           high oil prices.                       agitation. And in Latin America,
                                                  crises—the Arab spring, the
                                                                                                                                  elections in Mexico will likely
                                                  European financial crisis and
                                                                                           The coming year will also be           return the opposition Institutional
                                                  Japan’s triple disaster—2012 will be
                                                                                           defined by political transitions.      Revolutionary Party (PRI) to power,
                                                  characterized by political transitions
                                                                                           Some of the largest economies in       while in Venezuela the outlook for
                                                  and global economic risk. The            the world will focus on elections
                                                                                                                                  economic and political stability
                                                  eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis,        in 2012, including the US, France,
Teresa carroll,             ian Bremmer,                                                                                          looks bleak no matter who wins the
sVp – centers               president,            as well as a slowdown in the global      Russia, and possibly Japan. In
                                                                                                                                  presidential election there.
of excellence,              eurasia group         economy, will bring uncertainty to       China, elite competition during one
kelly services                                    economies from Asia to Africa and        of the most important leadership       ■ ■ ■
conTenTs

5 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012                                                                                                                                                 preFace
                                                                                                                                                                                                meThodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                The americas
                                                                                                                                                                                                asia paciFic


Methodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                europe
                                                                For all variables, scores range           factors such as crime, military               flexibility, assessing the regulatory   and eurasia
                                                                                                                                                                                                middle easT
                                                                from 1 to 10, where 1 is ‘high            spending, terrorism, domestic                 environment that employers face         and aFrica
                                                                risk’ and 10 is ‘low risk’.               and inter-state armed conflict,               in managing human resources,            aBouT sponsors
                                                                                                          and security alliances.                       the ability of labor to influence
                                                                macro-poliTical/
                                                                                                          macroeconomic environment: This               policymaking, and the near-term
                                                                counTry risk
                                                                                                          indicator captures the current health         potential for changes in the
                                                                political environment: This                                                             labor regulatory environment.
                                                                                                          of the macroeconomic environment
                                                                indicator measures the strength
                                                                                                          by aggregating the risks of short-
                                                                and durability of the regime and                                                        labor availability: The labor
                                                                                                          term and long-term economic
                                                                the government through factors                                                          availability indicator incorporates
                                                                                                          instability. Short-term factors include
                                                                including the cohesiveness of the                                                       migration, urban population, the
                                                                                                          economic and fiscal performance,
                                                                government and the opposition, the                                                      size of the labor force, the extent
                                                                                                          while long-term factors take in
                                                                degree to which the government                                                          to which women participate in the
                                                                                                          the structure of the economy,
                                                                has popular support, and the                                                            labor force, and unemployment.
                                                                                                          the environment for the private
                    ➔       The Global Market Brief &           strength and transparency of
                                                                                                          sector, and demographic trends.               labor quality: The quality of labor
                    Labor Risk Index is based on detailed       government institutions.
                    analysis of hard metrics of 30 unique                                                 policy environment for foreign                is measured by the education
                                                                social environment: This
                    labor market, socio-economic, and                                                     investment: This indicator measures           and skill level of a labor force, the
                                                                indicator captures the presence
                    political factors, layered with localized                                             how hospitable a country is to                general health of the population,
                                                                and intensity of, and the potential
                    expertise of in-country consultants.                                                  foreign investors by identifying              and labor productivity.
                                                                for, social conflict. Factors include
                                                                                                          and assessing any constraints on
                                                                income inequality, ethnic/class
                    The analysis aggregates the                                                                                                         labor contentment: This
                                                                                                          or barriers to economic activity,
                                                                conflict, urban population growth
                    individual factors into 9 core risk                                                                                                 indicator assesses the likelihood
                                                                rates, and issues that can arise          augmented by observing the degree
                    variables: 5 macro variables and 4                                                                                                  of labor discontent by combining
                                                                from poor government service              to which the economy is already a
                    labor variables that are each assigned                                                                                              the existence or potential of
                                                                provision, such as high infant            destination for foreign investment.
                    a score on a 10-point scale projecting                                                                                              near-term labor unrest with the
                                                                mortality and low literacy rates.
                    the degree of risk over the next                                                                                                    misery index, which incorporates
                    90 days. Each risk variable is also         security environment: This                laBor risk
                                                                                                                                                        unemployment and inflation rates.
                    assessed as to whether it is trending       indicator captures internal and           labor market flexibility: This
                    negative or positive.                       external security risks, including        indicator captures labor market               ■   ■   ■




                      In addition to assessing the current risk environment, this report also takes into consideration the trajectory of risk trends.
                      Arrows alongside risk scores explain where risks are likely to show a very positive trend (X X), positive trend (X),
                      negative trend ( Y), very negative trend (Y Y ), or remain unchanged (blank) over the 1-year period of the report.
conTenTs

6 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012                                                                                                                        preFace
                                                                                                                                                                       meThodology
                                                                                                                                                                       The americas
                                                                                                                                                                         overview


    Overview:
                                                                                                                                                                         risk index
                                                                                        increasing severance pay, as well       and Venezuela will maintain              argentina
                                                                                        as unemployment and disability          unorthodox economic policies             Brazil

    The Americas                                                                        benefits. And Mexico’s labor
                                                                                        laws are likely to be overhauled
                                                                                                                                and direct intervention in their
                                                                                                                                economies. That said, the ability
                                                                                                                                                                         canada
                                                                                                                                                                         chile
                                                                                                                                                                         costa rica
                                                                                        after the election—particularly         of some governments to respond
                                                                                                                                                                         ecuador
                                                                                        if the PRI wins—to make work            may be hindered by political             mexico
                                                                                        contracts more flexible. In contrast,   stalemate, particularly in the US.       united states

                                                                                        although the US election will                                                  asia paciFic
                                                  ➔      There are three major                                                  Despite slowing growth, labor          europe
                                                                                        draw attention to the issue of                                                 and eurasia
                                                  elections in 2012, in Mexico,                                                 markets are expected to remain
                                                                                        immigrants, any changes in visa                                                middle easT
                                                  Venezuela, and the US. In                                                     tight in some well-performing          and aFrica
                                                                                        policies are likely to be small.
                                                  Mexico, the election is likely to                                             sectors. It is already difficult for   aBouT sponsors

                                                  bring the opposition Institutional    Across the Americas, economic           employers to find skilled labor in
                                                  Revolutionary Party (PRI) back to     growth is expected to slow in 2012      Brazil’s energy and infrastructure
                                                  power, while in Venezuela and the     because of the eurozone crisis          sectors and in Canada’s mining
                                                  US, the incumbents are likely to      and heightened uncertainty about        and oil sectors. In Chile, where

                                                  win another term—although this        global growth. Many countries           significant strikes hit the mining

                                                  is by no means assured in either      in the region will continue to          sector in 2011, tight labor

                                                  case. In the run-up to the election                                           markets may embolden workers
                                                                                        implement pragmatic economic
                                                  in Venezuela, President Hugo                                                  to seek greater concessions
                                                                                        policies in an effort to manage
                                                                                                                                from employers in 2012.
                                                  Chavez is likely to focus the labor   slowing growth, but countries
                                                  code more on social issues by         such as Argentina, Ecuador,             ■ ■ ■
conTenTs

7 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012                                                                                                                                preFace
                                                                                                                                                                               meThodology
                                                                                                                                                                               The americas
                                                                                                                                                                                 overview
The americas – risk index summary TaBle 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                 risk index
                                                                                                                                                                                 argentina
                                                                        macro risks                                                        laBor risks                           Brazil

                                                                                                          Foreign                                                                canada
                                    political              social          security          economic                Flexibility   availability        Quality   contentment
                                                                                                        investment                                                               chile
                                                                                                                                                                                 costa rica
 Argentina                         6                   7                  9                  4     Y    4       Y    4             5               6              2      Y       ecuador
                                                                                                                                                                                 mexico
 Brazil                            7                   7                  8         X        6     Y    6            5             5               5              7
                                                                                                                                                                                 united states
                                                                                                                                                                               asia paciFic
 Canada                           10                   9                  9                  5     X    8            7             6               7              6
                                                                                                                                                                               europe
                                                                                                                                                                               and eurasia
 Chile                             6        Y          7            Y     9                  6          7            6             5        Y      7              4            middle easT
                                                                                                                                                                               and aFrica
 Colombia                          6                   7                  6                  5          6            6             5        X      5              3            aBouT sponsors


 Costa Rica                        6                   7                  9         Y        4     Y    6       Y    7             5               6              5      Y
 Ecuador                           5                   5                  7                  5     Y    3       Y    4             4               4              5      X
 El Salvador                       5        Y          6                  6         Y        3     Y    5            7             4               4              6

 Mexico                            7                   7                  7         Y        5          6            6        X    6               6              7

 Panama                            6        Y          6                  8                  6     X    7       X    5             5        X      5              3

 United States                     7                   8                  9                  6     X    7            8             6               8              5

 Venezuela                         5                   7                  6                  3     X    2       Y    3        Y    5               5              3      X
 north america                     8                   8                  8                  5          7            7             6               7              6

 central & south
                                   6                   7                  8                  5          5            5             5               5              4
 america

 americas                          6                   7                  8                  5          6            6             5               6              5

For all variables, scores range from 1 to 10, where 1 is ‘high risk’ and 10 is ‘low risk’.


      Very positive trend
      positive trend
      negative trend
      Very negative trend
conTenTs

8 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012                                                                                                                                                        preFace
                                                                                                                                                                                                       meThodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                       The americas
                                                                                                                                                                                                         overview


      Brazil
                                                                                                                                                                                                         risk index
                                                                            reduce Brazil’s perennially high real            skilled labor, particularly in the                                          argentina
                                                                            interest rates. It will maintain tight           construction and energy sectors,                                            Brazil

                                                                            fiscal policies and keep the 2012                will continue to be driven by                                               canada
                                                                                                                                                                                                         chile
                                                                            primary surplus target at 3.1% of                the substantial investments
                                                                                                                                                                                                         costa rica
                       ➔       President Dilma Rousseff                     GDP, though it will face difficulties            planned in each of these areas.
                                                                                                                                                                                                         ecuador
                       will continue to approach                            meeting it. If growth remains                                                                                                mexico
                                                                            tepid, policymakers are likely to                The congressional calendar                                                  united states
                       macroeconomic policy this year
                                                                            turn to the National Development                 will be somewhat curtailed as                                             asia paciFic
                       with the same pragmatism she
                                                                            Bank to boost lending or further                 national politicians stump for                                            europe
                       demonstrated during her first                                                                                                                                                   and eurasia
                                                                            loosen restrictions on credit growth             allies in municipal elections this                                        middle easT
                       year in office. Policymakers will
                                                                                                                             October. Even so, congress will       Real wages will get a significant   and aFrica
                                                                            to stimulate the economy.
                       face mounting pressure to adopt                                                                                                                                                 aBouT sponsors
                                                                                                                             likely approve a new oil royalty      boost in 2012 because the
                       stimulus measures given a weak                       Labor markets remain tight, with                 distribution framework (though        minimum wage will climb
                       external environment and a                           November unemployment at                         legal challenges will delay           by 14%, which will drive
                       slowdown in GDP growth from                          5.2%, the lowest level in nine                   new bid rounds until 2013),           wage increases throughout
                       7.5% in 2010 to an estimated                         years. Though slowing industrial                                                       the economy. Though wage
                                                                                                                             pass a public sector pension
                       3.1% in 2011 and 3.5% in 2012.                       production could bring slight                                                          hikes are a major driver of
                                                                                                                             reform, and make progress on
                       But fears that the government                        relief in 2012, this would most                                                        service sector inflation and
                                                                                                                             microeconomic reforms to facilitate
                       will trade inflation for growth are                  likely not signal a downturn                                                           consensus 2012 inflation
                                                                                                                             infrastructure investments.
                       overblown. The economic team will                    but a cooling of an overheated                                                         expectations are above the
                       keep using the global downturn to                    labor market. Demand for                         ■ ■ ■                                 4.5% center of the central
                                                                                                                                                                   bank’s targeted inflation band,
           Low risk 10
                            MACRO RISKS                                                             LABOR RISKS                                                    the government is bound by
                        9                                                                                                                                          its commitment made in early
                        8                                                                                                                                          2011 and is unlikely to anger
                        7
                                                                                                                                                                   labor by reneging on it.
                        6

                        5

                        4

                        3

                        2

                        1

           high risk    0
                              Political       Social         Security       Economic     Foreign     Flexibility   Availability      Quality   Contentment
                                                                                       Investment

                               Very positive trend        country macro risks
                               Positive trend             country labor risks
                               Negative trend             central & south america
                                Central & South America
                               Very negative trend        americas
                                Americas
conTenTs

9 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012                                                                                                                                                         preFace
                                                                                                                                                                                                        meThodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                        The americas
                                                                                                                                                                                                          overview


      Mexico
                                                                                                                                                                                                          risk index
                                                                              past two years. In the event of a                facilitate decisive policymaking.                                          argentina
                                                                              more pronounced global                                                                                                      Brazil

                                                                              economic downturn, the                           The campaign will bring a flurry                                           canada

                                                                              current government’s ability                     of finger-pointing and promises                                            chile
                                                                                                                                                                                                          costa rica
                                                                              to pursue countercyclical fiscal                 to revamp the current strategy
                       ➔       Expectations about Mexico’s                                                                                                                                                ecuador
                                                                              measures would be constrained                    of fighting the drug cartels, but
                       2012 GDP have declined somewhat                                                                                                                                                    mexico
                                                                              by the upcoming election.                        a tactical shift is unlikely, even if                                      united states
                       because of a sluggish US economic
                                                                                                                               the PRI wins. The government will                                        asia paciFic
                       recovery. The manufacturing
                                                                              The ruling National Action Party                 continue to rely on a heavy military
                                                                                                                                                                                                        europe
                       sector—buoyed by strong                                                                                                                                                          and eurasia
                                                                              (PAN) could make a competitive run               presence, close cooperation with                                         middle easT
                       automobile production, competitive                                                                                                                                               and aFrica
                                                                              in July’s presidential contest, but              the US, the growing role of the         If Pena Nieto becomes
                       wages and low transport costs for                                                                                                               president, Mexico could face     aBouT sponsors
                                                                              the opposition candidate Enrique                 federal police, and a push to fully
                       goods to the US—will continue to                       Pena Nieto of the Institutional                                                          a more promising reform
                                                                                                                               implement a 2008 judicial reform
                       drive the expansion, although the                      Revolutionary Party (PRI) remains                                                        outlook compared to the past
                                                                                                                               more quickly and effectively. In the
                       service sector is also expected to                     favored; in late 2011, he led by                                                         decade. Labor reform is one of
                                                                                                                               meantime, overall levels of violence
                       support the economy. Employment                        20 points with 44% support. It is                                                        the first items on the agenda
                                                                                                                               will remain high, although a peak
                       will continue to grow at a decent                      possible that the PRI could also
                                                                                                                                                                       and could advance quickly.
                                                                                                                               has probably been reached.              Any future labor proposal is
                       pace (close to 3.0%–4.0%),                             win a working majority in both
                                                                                                                                                                       likely to include a series of
                       albeit at a lower rate than in the                     houses of congress, which would                  ■ ■ ■
                                                                                                                                                                       changes aimed at diversifying
                                                                                                                                                                       the ways workers can be
                                                                                                                                                                       hired, with the ultimate goal
           Low risk 10
                            MACRO RISKS                                                               LABOR RISKS                                                      of making employer/worker
                        9                                                                                                                                              contract terms more flexible.
                        8

                        7

                        6

                        5

                        4

                        3

                        2

                        1

           high risk    0
                              Political        Social      Security           Economic     Foreign     Flexibility   Availability      Quality   Contentment
                                                                                         Investment

                               Very positive trend      country macro risks
                               Positive trend           country labor risks
                               Negative trend           north america
                                North America
                               Very negative trend      americas
                                Americas
conTenTs

10 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012                                                                                                                              preFace
                                                                                                                                                                              meThodology
                                                                                                                                                                              The americas
                                                                                                                                                                              asia paciFic


     Overview:
                                                                                                                                                                                overview
                                                                                           are well placed to win a majority in      use spending on infrastructure             risk index
                                                                                           Seoul, while Hong Kong may see            development and other programs             australia

     Asia Pacific                                                                          an actual race for chief executive.
                                                                                           And in India, all eyes are on
                                                                                                                                     to attract foreign investment.             china
                                                                                                                                                                                hong kong
                                                                                                                                                                                india
                                                                                           bellwether state elections and the        Security will also matter in 2012.
                                                                                                                                                                                indonesia
                                                                                           transfer of power from Congress           North Korea’s leadership transition
                                                                                                                                                                                Japan
                                                                                           party leader Sonia Gandhi to a            and Kim Jong-un’s efforts to               malaysia

                                                                                           new generation headed by her              consolidate power pose serious             new Zealand
                                                                                                                                                                                pakistan
                                                                                           son Rahul. Legislative gridlock in        risks to the region. Meanwhile,
                                                                                                                                                                                philippines
                                                   ➔       A number of elections and       Japan could prompt Prime Minister         China will find that its neighbors are
                                                                                                                                                                                singapore
                                                   political transitions in the Asia-      Yoshihiko Noda to call an election        less enamored with the country’s           south korea
                                                   Pacific region in 2012 will mean        for the lower house of the Diet.          economic heft and more wary of its         Thailand
                                                   a focus on domestic issues amid                                                   strategic intentions; governments          Vietnam

                                                   uncertainty stemming from the           Many governments in the region                                                     europe
                                                                                                                                     from Tokyo to Manila will welcome        and eurasia
                                                   eurozone crisis and the global          are revising economic forecasts for
                                                                                                                                     Washington’s efforts to reengage         middle easT
                                                                                           2012 downward (with the exception                                                  and aFrica
                                                   economic slowdown. As China                                                       Asia both economically and               aBouT sponsors
                                                   embarks on its most important           of China, Vietnam, and Indonesia).
                                                                                                                                     militarily. Lastly, the drawdown of
                                                   political transition in a decade,       Japan, New Zealand, and Thailand
                                                                                                                                     US forces from Afghanistan could
                                                   jockeying among elites will lead        may mitigate some of the effects of
                                                                                                                                     limit the ability of diplomatic
                                                   to risk aversion in policymaking.       a global economic slowdown with
                                                                                                                                     efforts to forge peace in the region
                                                   Elections will also dominate politics   additional spending on rebuilding
                                                                                                                                     and damage regional economic
                                                   in South Korea, Hong Kong, and          efforts after recent natural disasters,
                                                                                                                                     integration and trade prospects.
                                                   India, as well as Japan if a snap       but authorities in Singapore, the
                                                   election is held. Opposition parties    Philippines, and Malaysia will            ■ ■ ■
conTenTs

11 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012                                                                                                                               preFace
                                                                                                                                                                               meThodology
                                                                                                                                                                               The americas
                                                                                                                                                                               asia paciFic
asia paciFic – risk index summary TaBle 2012
                                                                                                                                                                                 overview
                                                                                                                                                                                 risk index
                                                                        macro risks                                                        laBor risks                           australia

                                                                                                          Foreign                                                                china
                                     political             social           security         economic                Flexibility   availability        Quality   contentment
                                                                                                        investment                                                               hong kong
                                                                                                                                                                                 india
 Australia                         7                   9                  9                  7     X    10           6             5        Y      7              7      Y       indonesia
 Bangladesh                        5                   4                  6                  4     Y    3            4             5               2              1              Japan
                                                                                                                                                                                 malaysia
 China                             5                   6            Y     8                  7     Y    4            5             7               7         X    5      Y       new Zealand
 Hong Kong                         6                   8                  9                  7     Y    10           7             7               9              5      Y       pakistan
                                                                                                                                                                                 philippines
 India                             5                   4                  5                  6     Y    5       X    6             5               3              3      Y       singapore
 Indonesia                         5                   6                  8                  5     X    5       X    5             6               5              3      Y       south korea
                                                                                                                                                                                 Thailand
 Japan                             7         Y         9                  9                  4     X    8            6             5               8              7
                                                                                                                                                                                 Vietnam
 Malaysia                          6         Y         7                  9                  6          6       X    6             5               7         X    6            europe
                                                                                                                                                                               and eurasia
 New Zealand                       9         X        10                  10                 7     X    9            7             6        Y      7              6            middle easT
                                                                                                                                                                               and aFrica
 Pakistan                          2         Y         3                  1         Y        3     Y    5            5             3               2              2            aBouT sponsors

 Philippines                       5                   5                  7                  4     Y    5            5             6        X      5              6

 Singapore                         9                   9                  9                  8     Y    8            7             5        Y      8              9

 South Korea                       6         Y         9                  8                  6     Y    7       X    6             6               7              5

 Sri Lanka                         7                   6                  9                  3          3       Y    6             4               6              2

 Thailand                          4         Y         6            Y     8                  5     Y    6            6        Y    7               7              8

 Vietnam                           5         X         6                  9                  4     X    4       X    5             6               5              5

 south asia                        5                   4                  5                  4          4            5             4               3              2

 east asia (ex. Japan)             6                   7                  8                  6          6            6             6               7              6

 pacific                           8                   9                  9                  6          9            6             5               7              7

 asia paciFic                      6                   7                  8                  5          6            6             6               6              5

For all variables, scores range from 1 to 10, where 1 is ‘high risk’ and 10 is ‘low risk’.


      Very positive trend
      positive trend
      negative trend
      Very negative trend
conTenTs

12 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012                                                                                                                                                           preFace
                                                                                                                                                                                                           meThodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                           The americas
                                                                                                                                                                                                           asia paciFic


      Japan
                                                                                                                                                                                                             overview
                                                                              despite stimulus provided by                     Party of Japan (DPJ) does not                                                 risk index
                                                                              disaster recovery spending.                      control the Diet’s upper house.                                               australia
                                                                                                                                                                                                             china
                                                                              On the political front, legislative              The Diet session beginning in                                                 hong kong

                                                                              gridlock will constrain bold                     January provides two major                                                    india
                       ➔        Prime Minister Yoshihiko                                                                                                                                                     indonesia
                                                                              reforms in 2012, but broad                       opportunities for opposition
                       Noda appears better positioned                                                                                                                                                        Japan
                                                                              demographic shifts and                           obstruction—the fiscal year
                       than recent predecessors to survive                                                                                                                                                   malaysia
                                                                              globalization are putting enormous               2012 budget and debate over                                                   new Zealand
                       politically, but the opposition will
                                                                              pressure on Japan to embrace                     a consumption tax hike to cover                                               pakistan
                       work in 2012 to undermine his
                                                                              greater economic openness over                   rising social welfare costs. If Noda’s                                        philippines
                       government and push for early                                                                           approval numbers remain strong, his                                           singapore
                                                                              the medium and long term. A                                                               An amendment to the Worker
                       elections. If the economy can                                                                                                                                                         south korea
                                                                              mildly positive economic outlook                 opponents will likely compromise         Dispatch Act will probably           Thailand
                       bounce back from an estimated                                                                           on the budget to avoid a snap
                                                                              will not offset tension within                                                            pass during the upcoming             Vietnam
                       contraction of 0.4% to 2.0% in                         and across political parties and                 election. Clashes over a tax increase    Diet session. Responding to        europe
                                                                                                                                                                                                           and eurasia
                       2011, Noda will be better able                         entrenched interest groups. Major                will be acute, however, potentially      pressure from advocates of more
                                                                                                                                                                                                           middle easT
                       to engage in legislative battles.                      opposition parties, especially                   resulting in an election anyway. If      flexibility in the labor market,   and aFrica

                       Unfortunately, unemployment is                         the Liberal Democratic Party                     Noda’s support wanes, he is likely       the DPJ dropped the near-          aBouT sponsors

                       not forecast to drop significantly                     (LDP) and Komeito, can flex                      to step down or feel compelled           total bans it had proposed on
                       below the 4.9% rate seen in 2011,                      their muscles on budget matters                  to call an election by summer.           employing temporary workers
                       and deflation is expected to persist                   because Noda’s Democratic                        ■ ■ ■
                                                                                                                                                                        in manufacturing as well as
                                                                                                                                                                        “registered” temporary workers
                                                                                                                                                                        (paid when dispatched). This
           Low risk 10
                            MACRO RISKS                                                               LABOR RISKS                                                       change eliminates concerns
                        9                                                                                                                                               that the law would restrict the
                        8                                                                                                                                               ability of Japanese companies
                        7
                                                                                                                                                                        to meet their labor needs
                        6

                        5
                                                                                                                                                                        without having to hire more
                        4
                                                                                                                                                                        costly permanent workers.
                        3

                        2

                        1

           high risk    0
                              Political        Social      Security           Economic     Foreign     Flexibility   Availability      Quality   Contentment
                                                                                         Investment

                               Very positive trend      country macro risks
                               Positive trend           country labor risks
                               Negative trend           pacific
                                Pacific
                               Very negative trend      asia pacific
                                Asia Pacific
conTenTs

13 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012                                                                                                                                                         preFace
                                                                                                                                                                                                         meThodology
                                                                                                                                                                                                         The americas
                                                                                                                                                                                                         asia paciFic


      New Zealand
                                                                                                                                                                                                           overview
                                                                             will hurt export sectors. The IMF                reform policy agenda. Although the                                           risk index
                                                                             estimated 2012 growth at 3.8%,                   Nationals did not win an outright                                            australia

                                                                             while the OECD recently lowered                  majority, they secured their best                                            china
                                                                                                                                                                                                           hong kong
                                                                             its forecast from 4.1% to 2.5%.                  performance in decades and quickly
                                                                                                                                                                                                           india
                       ➔       The country’s economy                         Unemployment stood at 6.6% for                   moved to form a government in                                                indonesia
                       continues its slow recovery and                       the September quarter (1 July –30                association with smaller parties. In                                         Japan

                       will remain vulnerable to a global                    September 30), 0.2 percentage                    particular, Key views his election as                                        malaysia
                                                                                                                                                                                                           new Zealand
                       slowdown precipitated by events                       points higher than the same period               a mandate to advance his economic
                                                                                                                                                                                                           pakistan
                       in Europe and the US. GDP                             last year. The flat unemployment                 plan, which includes sales of energy                                         philippines
                       growth in 2011 is expected to be                      numbers are supported by a flat                  companies and airlines as well as                                            singapore
                                                                                                                                                                      Trade promotion is expected
                       close to 2%, boosted mainly by                        wage growth for the quarter,                     cuts in welfare payments to help                                             south korea
                                                                                                                                                                      to be a major initiative of          Thailand
                       post-earthquake reconstruction                        suggesting that the central bank                 balance the government’s budget.
                                                                                                                                                                      the Key government, which            Vietnam
                       efforts and spending on the                           will keep interest rates low (2.5%)              Key has pledged to return the           will support job creation in       europe
                       rugby world cup. Reconstruction                       for the foreseeable future.                      budget to surplus by 2014–2015                                             and eurasia
                                                                                                                                                                      export sectors. The prime
                       spending in 2012 will continue to                                                                                                                                                 middle easT
                                                                                                                              at the latest, and investors and        minister will look to finalize a   and aFrica
                       benefit both the economy and                          A fresh mandate for Prime Minister
                                                                                                                              businesses will generally find          free trade agreement with the      aBouT sponsors
                       job creation, although a relatively                   John Key’s National government
                                                                                                                              comfort in Key’s policy agenda.         US, and he will help advance
                       strong New Zealand dollar and                         in the 26 November elections                                                             the Trans-Pacific Partnership,
                       a weak external environment                           signals a move toward an economic                ■ ■ ■                                   both of which are goals that
                                                                                                                                                                      the Labor opposition also
                                                                                                                                                                      supports. The offsetting factor
           Low risk 10
                            MACRO RISKS                                                              LABOR RISKS                                                      over the next year or two,
                        9                                                                                                                                             however, will be a slowdown
                        8                                                                                                                                             in the export and tourism
                        7
                                                                                                                                                                      sectors as the European and
                        6

                        5
                                                                                                                                                                      US economies struggle.
                        4

                        3

                        2

                        1

           high risk    0
                             Political        Social      Security           Economic     Foreign     Flexibility   Availability      Quality   Contentment
                                                                                        Investment

                              Very positive trend      country macro risks
                              Positive trend           country labor risks
                              Negative trend           pacific
                               Pacific
                              Very negative trend      asia pacific
                               Asia Pacific
conTenTs

14 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012                                                                                                                       preFace
                                                                                                                                                                       meThodology
                                                                                                                                                                       The americas
                                                                                                                                                                       asia paciFic


     Overview:
                                                                                                                                                                       europe
                                                                                          the required spending cuts and tax     support. But pursuing serious         and eurasia
                                                                                                                                                                         overview
                                                                                          increases may further slow already     economic reforms is especially

     Europe and Eurasia                                                                   struggling economies. On the
                                                                                          other hand, few governments have
                                                                                                                                 hard in tough economic times.
                                                                                                                                                                         risk index
                                                                                                                                                                         Baltics
                                                                                                                                                                         Belgium
                                                                                          the financial resources to embark      The eurozone crisis hurt a number       czech republic

                                                                                          on aggressive stimulus spending        of incumbent governments, and           denmark

                                                                                                                                 some of these countries have            France
                                                                                          to jump-start their economies.
                                                   ➔      The eurozone’s sovereign                                                                                       germany
                                                                                                                                 new governments as a result.
                                                                                                                                                                         hungary
                                                   debt crisis will continue to put the   Several governments are turning        A few moved leftward in recent          ireland
                                                   countries of Europe and Eurasia        to structural reform of their          elections. Denmark, for instance,       italy
                                                   under considerable economic and        economies, either on their own                                                 luxembourg
                                                                                                                                 elected a center-left coalition
                                                   fiscal pressure in 2012. Many of       initiative (Sweden, Denmark,                                                   netherlands
                                                                                                                                 after a decade with a center-right
                                                                                                                                                                         norway
                                                   these countries face both a debt       Hungary, and Poland) or under          government. But others moved            poland
                                                   problem and a growth problem,          pressure from markets and lenders      rightward. After seven years in         portugal
                                                   and the potential solutions to one     (Italy and Portugal). Both Italy and                                           romania
                                                                                                                                 power in Spain, the Socialists were
                                                   may exacerbate the other. Many                                                                                        russia
                                                                                          Portugal have new governments          badly defeated by a center-right
                                                                                                                                                                         serbia
                                                   governments—including in the           (Italy’s appointed, Portugal’s         party. Two of the most important        spain
                                                   UK, France, Italy, and Spain—are       elected) that appear committed
                                                                                                                                 elections in the region, in France      sweden
                                                   pursuing austerity programs in an      to pushing through necessary but                                               switzerland
                                                                                                                                 and Russia, are due in early 2012.
                                                   effort to reduce their deficits and    painful structural changes and                                                 Turkey
                                                                                                                                                                         ukraine
                                                   contain sovereign debt levels. But     have a good measure of popular         ■ ■ ■
                                                                                                                                                                         united kingdom
                                                                                                                                                                       middle easT
                                                                                                                                                                       and aFrica
                                                                                                                                                                       aBouT sponsors
Global Market Brief and Labor Risk Index 2012
Global Market Brief and Labor Risk Index 2012
Global Market Brief and Labor Risk Index 2012
Global Market Brief and Labor Risk Index 2012
Global Market Brief and Labor Risk Index 2012
Global Market Brief and Labor Risk Index 2012
Global Market Brief and Labor Risk Index 2012
Global Market Brief and Labor Risk Index 2012
Global Market Brief and Labor Risk Index 2012

More Related Content

More from Todd Wheatland

E.U. Employment Restructuring Report Q2 2013
E.U. Employment Restructuring Report Q2 2013E.U. Employment Restructuring Report Q2 2013
E.U. Employment Restructuring Report Q2 2013Todd Wheatland
 
Career Development and Upskilling
Career Development and UpskillingCareer Development and Upskilling
Career Development and UpskillingTodd Wheatland
 
E.U. Employment Restructuring Report Q1 2013
E.U. Employment Restructuring Report Q1 2013E.U. Employment Restructuring Report Q1 2013
E.U. Employment Restructuring Report Q1 2013Todd Wheatland
 
EU Employment Restructuring Report Q4 2012
EU Employment Restructuring Report Q4 2012EU Employment Restructuring Report Q4 2012
EU Employment Restructuring Report Q4 2012Todd Wheatland
 
The Highly Virtual Workplace
The Highly Virtual WorkplaceThe Highly Virtual Workplace
The Highly Virtual WorkplaceTodd Wheatland
 
U.S Talent Market Monthly October 2012
U.S Talent Market Monthly October 2012U.S Talent Market Monthly October 2012
U.S Talent Market Monthly October 2012Todd Wheatland
 
KGWI Autonomous and Empowered Workforce
KGWI Autonomous and Empowered WorkforceKGWI Autonomous and Empowered Workforce
KGWI Autonomous and Empowered WorkforceTodd Wheatland
 
Autonomous Workforce Infograph
Autonomous Workforce InfographAutonomous Workforce Infograph
Autonomous Workforce InfographTodd Wheatland
 
The Virtual Scientific Workplace
The Virtual Scientific WorkplaceThe Virtual Scientific Workplace
The Virtual Scientific WorkplaceTodd Wheatland
 
The “E” in STEM – spotlight on the engineering employment market
The “E” in STEM – spotlight on the engineering employment marketThe “E” in STEM – spotlight on the engineering employment market
The “E” in STEM – spotlight on the engineering employment marketTodd Wheatland
 
Q3 2012 Global Talent Market Quarterly
Q3 2012 Global Talent Market Quarterly Q3 2012 Global Talent Market Quarterly
Q3 2012 Global Talent Market Quarterly Todd Wheatland
 
U.S. Talent Market Monthly August 2012
U.S. Talent Market Monthly August 2012U.S. Talent Market Monthly August 2012
U.S. Talent Market Monthly August 2012Todd Wheatland
 
The Leadership Disconnect infograph
The Leadership Disconnect infographThe Leadership Disconnect infograph
The Leadership Disconnect infographTodd Wheatland
 
The Leadership Disconnect
The Leadership DisconnectThe Leadership Disconnect
The Leadership DisconnectTodd Wheatland
 
U.S. Talent Market Monthly July 2012.
U.S. Talent Market Monthly July 2012.U.S. Talent Market Monthly July 2012.
U.S. Talent Market Monthly July 2012.Todd Wheatland
 
How to find (and keep) STEM Talent
How to find (and keep) STEM TalentHow to find (and keep) STEM Talent
How to find (and keep) STEM TalentTodd Wheatland
 
Asian Talent Market Update 2012
Asian Talent Market Update 2012Asian Talent Market Update 2012
Asian Talent Market Update 2012Todd Wheatland
 
Socia Media in the Workplace
Socia Media in the WorkplaceSocia Media in the Workplace
Socia Media in the WorkplaceTodd Wheatland
 

More from Todd Wheatland (20)

E.U. Employment Restructuring Report Q2 2013
E.U. Employment Restructuring Report Q2 2013E.U. Employment Restructuring Report Q2 2013
E.U. Employment Restructuring Report Q2 2013
 
Career Development and Upskilling
Career Development and UpskillingCareer Development and Upskilling
Career Development and Upskilling
 
E.U. Employment Restructuring Report Q1 2013
E.U. Employment Restructuring Report Q1 2013E.U. Employment Restructuring Report Q1 2013
E.U. Employment Restructuring Report Q1 2013
 
EU Employment Restructuring Report Q4 2012
EU Employment Restructuring Report Q4 2012EU Employment Restructuring Report Q4 2012
EU Employment Restructuring Report Q4 2012
 
The Highly Virtual Workplace
The Highly Virtual WorkplaceThe Highly Virtual Workplace
The Highly Virtual Workplace
 
U.S Talent Market Monthly October 2012
U.S Talent Market Monthly October 2012U.S Talent Market Monthly October 2012
U.S Talent Market Monthly October 2012
 
KGWI Autonomous and Empowered Workforce
KGWI Autonomous and Empowered WorkforceKGWI Autonomous and Empowered Workforce
KGWI Autonomous and Empowered Workforce
 
Autonomous Workforce Infograph
Autonomous Workforce InfographAutonomous Workforce Infograph
Autonomous Workforce Infograph
 
The Virtual Scientific Workplace
The Virtual Scientific WorkplaceThe Virtual Scientific Workplace
The Virtual Scientific Workplace
 
The “E” in STEM – spotlight on the engineering employment market
The “E” in STEM – spotlight on the engineering employment marketThe “E” in STEM – spotlight on the engineering employment market
The “E” in STEM – spotlight on the engineering employment market
 
Q3 2012 Global Talent Market Quarterly
Q3 2012 Global Talent Market Quarterly Q3 2012 Global Talent Market Quarterly
Q3 2012 Global Talent Market Quarterly
 
U.S. Talent Market Monthly August 2012
U.S. Talent Market Monthly August 2012U.S. Talent Market Monthly August 2012
U.S. Talent Market Monthly August 2012
 
The Leadership Disconnect infograph
The Leadership Disconnect infographThe Leadership Disconnect infograph
The Leadership Disconnect infograph
 
The Leadership Disconnect
The Leadership DisconnectThe Leadership Disconnect
The Leadership Disconnect
 
The STEM Talent Gap
The STEM Talent GapThe STEM Talent Gap
The STEM Talent Gap
 
STEM Careers
STEM CareersSTEM Careers
STEM Careers
 
U.S. Talent Market Monthly July 2012.
U.S. Talent Market Monthly July 2012.U.S. Talent Market Monthly July 2012.
U.S. Talent Market Monthly July 2012.
 
How to find (and keep) STEM Talent
How to find (and keep) STEM TalentHow to find (and keep) STEM Talent
How to find (and keep) STEM Talent
 
Asian Talent Market Update 2012
Asian Talent Market Update 2012Asian Talent Market Update 2012
Asian Talent Market Update 2012
 
Socia Media in the Workplace
Socia Media in the WorkplaceSocia Media in the Workplace
Socia Media in the Workplace
 

Recently uploaded

Enhancing and Restoring Safety & Quality Cultures - Dave Litwiller - May 2024...
Enhancing and Restoring Safety & Quality Cultures - Dave Litwiller - May 2024...Enhancing and Restoring Safety & Quality Cultures - Dave Litwiller - May 2024...
Enhancing and Restoring Safety & Quality Cultures - Dave Litwiller - May 2024...Dave Litwiller
 
Insurers' journeys to build a mastery in the IoT usage
Insurers' journeys to build a mastery in the IoT usageInsurers' journeys to build a mastery in the IoT usage
Insurers' journeys to build a mastery in the IoT usageMatteo Carbone
 
Russian Call Girls In Gurgaon ❤️8448577510 ⊹Best Escorts Service In 24/7 Delh...
Russian Call Girls In Gurgaon ❤️8448577510 ⊹Best Escorts Service In 24/7 Delh...Russian Call Girls In Gurgaon ❤️8448577510 ⊹Best Escorts Service In 24/7 Delh...
Russian Call Girls In Gurgaon ❤️8448577510 ⊹Best Escorts Service In 24/7 Delh...lizamodels9
 
Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...
Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...
Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...lizamodels9
 
Organizational Transformation Lead with Culture
Organizational Transformation Lead with CultureOrganizational Transformation Lead with Culture
Organizational Transformation Lead with CultureSeta Wicaksana
 
A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A SALESMAN / WOMAN
A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A  SALESMAN / WOMANA DAY IN THE LIFE OF A  SALESMAN / WOMAN
A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A SALESMAN / WOMANIlamathiKannappan
 
Famous Olympic Siblings from the 21st Century
Famous Olympic Siblings from the 21st CenturyFamous Olympic Siblings from the 21st Century
Famous Olympic Siblings from the 21st Centuryrwgiffor
 
Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...
Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...
Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...Roland Driesen
 
Quick Doctor In Kuwait +2773`7758`557 Kuwait Doha Qatar Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharj...
Quick Doctor In Kuwait +2773`7758`557 Kuwait Doha Qatar Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharj...Quick Doctor In Kuwait +2773`7758`557 Kuwait Doha Qatar Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharj...
Quick Doctor In Kuwait +2773`7758`557 Kuwait Doha Qatar Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharj...daisycvs
 
Mysore Call Girls 8617370543 WhatsApp Number 24x7 Best Services
Mysore Call Girls 8617370543 WhatsApp Number 24x7 Best ServicesMysore Call Girls 8617370543 WhatsApp Number 24x7 Best Services
Mysore Call Girls 8617370543 WhatsApp Number 24x7 Best ServicesDipal Arora
 
Cracking the Cultural Competence Code.pptx
Cracking the Cultural Competence Code.pptxCracking the Cultural Competence Code.pptx
Cracking the Cultural Competence Code.pptxWorkforce Group
 
Uneak White's Personal Brand Exploration Presentation
Uneak White's Personal Brand Exploration PresentationUneak White's Personal Brand Exploration Presentation
Uneak White's Personal Brand Exploration Presentationuneakwhite
 
FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Majnu Ka Tilla, Delhi Contact Us 8377877756
FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Majnu Ka Tilla, Delhi Contact Us 8377877756FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Majnu Ka Tilla, Delhi Contact Us 8377877756
FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Majnu Ka Tilla, Delhi Contact Us 8377877756dollysharma2066
 
Business Model Canvas (BMC)- A new venture concept
Business Model Canvas (BMC)-  A new venture conceptBusiness Model Canvas (BMC)-  A new venture concept
Business Model Canvas (BMC)- A new venture conceptP&CO
 
The Path to Product Excellence: Avoiding Common Pitfalls and Enhancing Commun...
The Path to Product Excellence: Avoiding Common Pitfalls and Enhancing Commun...The Path to Product Excellence: Avoiding Common Pitfalls and Enhancing Commun...
The Path to Product Excellence: Avoiding Common Pitfalls and Enhancing Commun...Aggregage
 
Falcon's Invoice Discounting: Your Path to Prosperity
Falcon's Invoice Discounting: Your Path to ProsperityFalcon's Invoice Discounting: Your Path to Prosperity
Falcon's Invoice Discounting: Your Path to Prosperityhemanthkumar470700
 
MONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRL
MONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRLMONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRL
MONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRLSeo
 
RSA Conference Exhibitor List 2024 - Exhibitors Data
RSA Conference Exhibitor List 2024 - Exhibitors DataRSA Conference Exhibitor List 2024 - Exhibitors Data
RSA Conference Exhibitor List 2024 - Exhibitors DataExhibitors Data
 
BAGALUR CALL GIRL IN 98274*61493 ❤CALL GIRLS IN ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRL
BAGALUR CALL GIRL IN 98274*61493 ❤CALL GIRLS IN ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRLBAGALUR CALL GIRL IN 98274*61493 ❤CALL GIRLS IN ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRL
BAGALUR CALL GIRL IN 98274*61493 ❤CALL GIRLS IN ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRLkapoorjyoti4444
 

Recently uploaded (20)

Enhancing and Restoring Safety & Quality Cultures - Dave Litwiller - May 2024...
Enhancing and Restoring Safety & Quality Cultures - Dave Litwiller - May 2024...Enhancing and Restoring Safety & Quality Cultures - Dave Litwiller - May 2024...
Enhancing and Restoring Safety & Quality Cultures - Dave Litwiller - May 2024...
 
Insurers' journeys to build a mastery in the IoT usage
Insurers' journeys to build a mastery in the IoT usageInsurers' journeys to build a mastery in the IoT usage
Insurers' journeys to build a mastery in the IoT usage
 
Russian Call Girls In Gurgaon ❤️8448577510 ⊹Best Escorts Service In 24/7 Delh...
Russian Call Girls In Gurgaon ❤️8448577510 ⊹Best Escorts Service In 24/7 Delh...Russian Call Girls In Gurgaon ❤️8448577510 ⊹Best Escorts Service In 24/7 Delh...
Russian Call Girls In Gurgaon ❤️8448577510 ⊹Best Escorts Service In 24/7 Delh...
 
Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...
Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...
Call Girls In DLf Gurgaon ➥99902@11544 ( Best price)100% Genuine Escort In 24...
 
Organizational Transformation Lead with Culture
Organizational Transformation Lead with CultureOrganizational Transformation Lead with Culture
Organizational Transformation Lead with Culture
 
A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A SALESMAN / WOMAN
A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A  SALESMAN / WOMANA DAY IN THE LIFE OF A  SALESMAN / WOMAN
A DAY IN THE LIFE OF A SALESMAN / WOMAN
 
Famous Olympic Siblings from the 21st Century
Famous Olympic Siblings from the 21st CenturyFamous Olympic Siblings from the 21st Century
Famous Olympic Siblings from the 21st Century
 
VVVIP Call Girls In Greater Kailash ➡️ Delhi ➡️ 9999965857 🚀 No Advance 24HRS...
VVVIP Call Girls In Greater Kailash ➡️ Delhi ➡️ 9999965857 🚀 No Advance 24HRS...VVVIP Call Girls In Greater Kailash ➡️ Delhi ➡️ 9999965857 🚀 No Advance 24HRS...
VVVIP Call Girls In Greater Kailash ➡️ Delhi ➡️ 9999965857 🚀 No Advance 24HRS...
 
Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...
Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...
Ensure the security of your HCL environment by applying the Zero Trust princi...
 
Quick Doctor In Kuwait +2773`7758`557 Kuwait Doha Qatar Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharj...
Quick Doctor In Kuwait +2773`7758`557 Kuwait Doha Qatar Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharj...Quick Doctor In Kuwait +2773`7758`557 Kuwait Doha Qatar Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharj...
Quick Doctor In Kuwait +2773`7758`557 Kuwait Doha Qatar Dubai Abu Dhabi Sharj...
 
Mysore Call Girls 8617370543 WhatsApp Number 24x7 Best Services
Mysore Call Girls 8617370543 WhatsApp Number 24x7 Best ServicesMysore Call Girls 8617370543 WhatsApp Number 24x7 Best Services
Mysore Call Girls 8617370543 WhatsApp Number 24x7 Best Services
 
Cracking the Cultural Competence Code.pptx
Cracking the Cultural Competence Code.pptxCracking the Cultural Competence Code.pptx
Cracking the Cultural Competence Code.pptx
 
Uneak White's Personal Brand Exploration Presentation
Uneak White's Personal Brand Exploration PresentationUneak White's Personal Brand Exploration Presentation
Uneak White's Personal Brand Exploration Presentation
 
FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Majnu Ka Tilla, Delhi Contact Us 8377877756
FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Majnu Ka Tilla, Delhi Contact Us 8377877756FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Majnu Ka Tilla, Delhi Contact Us 8377877756
FULL ENJOY Call Girls In Majnu Ka Tilla, Delhi Contact Us 8377877756
 
Business Model Canvas (BMC)- A new venture concept
Business Model Canvas (BMC)-  A new venture conceptBusiness Model Canvas (BMC)-  A new venture concept
Business Model Canvas (BMC)- A new venture concept
 
The Path to Product Excellence: Avoiding Common Pitfalls and Enhancing Commun...
The Path to Product Excellence: Avoiding Common Pitfalls and Enhancing Commun...The Path to Product Excellence: Avoiding Common Pitfalls and Enhancing Commun...
The Path to Product Excellence: Avoiding Common Pitfalls and Enhancing Commun...
 
Falcon's Invoice Discounting: Your Path to Prosperity
Falcon's Invoice Discounting: Your Path to ProsperityFalcon's Invoice Discounting: Your Path to Prosperity
Falcon's Invoice Discounting: Your Path to Prosperity
 
MONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRL
MONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRLMONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRL
MONA 98765-12871 CALL GIRLS IN LUDHIANA LUDHIANA CALL GIRL
 
RSA Conference Exhibitor List 2024 - Exhibitors Data
RSA Conference Exhibitor List 2024 - Exhibitors DataRSA Conference Exhibitor List 2024 - Exhibitors Data
RSA Conference Exhibitor List 2024 - Exhibitors Data
 
BAGALUR CALL GIRL IN 98274*61493 ❤CALL GIRLS IN ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRL
BAGALUR CALL GIRL IN 98274*61493 ❤CALL GIRLS IN ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRLBAGALUR CALL GIRL IN 98274*61493 ❤CALL GIRLS IN ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRL
BAGALUR CALL GIRL IN 98274*61493 ❤CALL GIRLS IN ESCORT SERVICE❤CALL GIRL
 

Global Market Brief and Labor Risk Index 2012

  • 1. Think ouTside. Global Market Brief & Labor Risk Index 2012 ple re porT only olog y sam m eThod
  • 2. Global Market Brief & Labor Risk Index 2012 This is meThodology sample reporT only. To subscribe to the global market Brief & labor risk index, visit kellyocg.com/marketbrief
  • 3. conTenTs 3 preface: Teresa carroll, sVp – centers of excellence, kelly services & ian Bremmer, president, eurasia group 4 methodology 72 about sponsors The Americas Asia Pacific Europe and Eurasia Middle East and Africa 6 overview 17 overview 34 overview 60 overview 7 risk index 18 risk index 35 risk index 61 risk index 8 argentina 19 australia 36 Baltics 62 algeria 9 Brazil 20 china 37 Belgium 63 egypt 10 canada 21 hong kong 38 czech republic 64 ghana 11 chile 22 india 39 denmark 65 israel 12 cost rica 23 indonesia 40 France 66 kuwait 13 ecuador 24 Japan 41 germany 67 morocco 14 mexico 25 malaysia 42 hungary 68 Qatar 15 united states 26 new Zealand 43 ireland 69 saudi arabia 27 pakistan 44 italy 70 south africa 28 philippines 45 luxembourg 71 united arab emirates 29 singapore 46 netherlands 30 south korea 47 norway 31 Thailand 48 poland 32 Vietnam 49 portugal 50 romania 51 russia 52 serbia 53 spain 54 sweden 55 switzerland 56 Turkey 57 ukraine 58 united kingdom cover: roof of the hans otto Theater in potsdam, germany © Andreas Levers This material was produced by Eurasia Group in collaboration with Kelly Outsourcing and Consulting Group (KellyOCG®). This is intended as general background research and is not intended to constitute advice on any particular commercial investment, trade matter, or issue, and should not be relied upon for such purposes. Eurasia Group is a private research and consulting firm. © 2012 KellyOCG and Eurasia Group.
  • 4. conTenTs 4 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Preface europe Latin America. European countries transitions in a decade will result and eurasia middle easT will continue to tighten their belts in conservative policymaking, but and aFrica even as that response further slows major political instability is unlikely aBouT sponsors growth. Some countries in Asia will despite headlines. Elsewhere have to rely on disaster spending, in the Asia-Pacific region, leftist infrastructure development, and opposition parties look well placed foreign investment to mitigate to win a majority in South Korea, slowing growth. Growth in the while state elections in India will global economy will depend on serve as bellwether for later national emerging markets nations: China elections. In Sub-Saharan Africa, and Indonesia in Asia, Ghana in elections in Ghana and the ruling sub-Saharan Africa, and those party conference in South Africa will nations in the Middle East whose set the stage for intensifying labor ➔ If 2011 was marked by economies are supported by high oil prices. agitation. And in Latin America, crises—the Arab spring, the elections in Mexico will likely European financial crisis and The coming year will also be return the opposition Institutional Japan’s triple disaster—2012 will be defined by political transitions. Revolutionary Party (PRI) to power, characterized by political transitions Some of the largest economies in while in Venezuela the outlook for and global economic risk. The the world will focus on elections economic and political stability eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis, in 2012, including the US, France, Teresa carroll, ian Bremmer, looks bleak no matter who wins the sVp – centers president, as well as a slowdown in the global Russia, and possibly Japan. In presidential election there. of excellence, eurasia group economy, will bring uncertainty to China, elite competition during one kelly services economies from Asia to Africa and of the most important leadership ■ ■ ■
  • 5. conTenTs 5 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Methodology europe For all variables, scores range factors such as crime, military flexibility, assessing the regulatory and eurasia middle easT from 1 to 10, where 1 is ‘high spending, terrorism, domestic environment that employers face and aFrica risk’ and 10 is ‘low risk’. and inter-state armed conflict, in managing human resources, aBouT sponsors and security alliances. the ability of labor to influence macro-poliTical/ macroeconomic environment: This policymaking, and the near-term counTry risk indicator captures the current health potential for changes in the political environment: This labor regulatory environment. of the macroeconomic environment indicator measures the strength by aggregating the risks of short- and durability of the regime and labor availability: The labor term and long-term economic the government through factors availability indicator incorporates instability. Short-term factors include including the cohesiveness of the migration, urban population, the economic and fiscal performance, government and the opposition, the size of the labor force, the extent while long-term factors take in degree to which the government to which women participate in the the structure of the economy, has popular support, and the labor force, and unemployment. the environment for the private ➔ The Global Market Brief & strength and transparency of sector, and demographic trends. labor quality: The quality of labor Labor Risk Index is based on detailed government institutions. analysis of hard metrics of 30 unique policy environment for foreign is measured by the education social environment: This labor market, socio-economic, and investment: This indicator measures and skill level of a labor force, the indicator captures the presence political factors, layered with localized how hospitable a country is to general health of the population, and intensity of, and the potential expertise of in-country consultants. foreign investors by identifying and labor productivity. for, social conflict. Factors include and assessing any constraints on income inequality, ethnic/class The analysis aggregates the labor contentment: This or barriers to economic activity, conflict, urban population growth individual factors into 9 core risk indicator assesses the likelihood rates, and issues that can arise augmented by observing the degree variables: 5 macro variables and 4 of labor discontent by combining from poor government service to which the economy is already a labor variables that are each assigned the existence or potential of provision, such as high infant destination for foreign investment. a score on a 10-point scale projecting near-term labor unrest with the mortality and low literacy rates. the degree of risk over the next misery index, which incorporates 90 days. Each risk variable is also security environment: This laBor risk unemployment and inflation rates. assessed as to whether it is trending indicator captures internal and labor market flexibility: This negative or positive. external security risks, including indicator captures labor market ■ ■ ■ In addition to assessing the current risk environment, this report also takes into consideration the trajectory of risk trends. Arrows alongside risk scores explain where risks are likely to show a very positive trend (X X), positive trend (X), negative trend ( Y), very negative trend (Y Y ), or remain unchanged (blank) over the 1-year period of the report.
  • 6. conTenTs 6 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012 preFace meThodology The americas overview Overview: risk index increasing severance pay, as well and Venezuela will maintain argentina as unemployment and disability unorthodox economic policies Brazil The Americas benefits. And Mexico’s labor laws are likely to be overhauled and direct intervention in their economies. That said, the ability canada chile costa rica after the election—particularly of some governments to respond ecuador if the PRI wins—to make work may be hindered by political mexico contracts more flexible. In contrast, stalemate, particularly in the US. united states although the US election will asia paciFic ➔ There are three major Despite slowing growth, labor europe draw attention to the issue of and eurasia elections in 2012, in Mexico, markets are expected to remain immigrants, any changes in visa middle easT Venezuela, and the US. In tight in some well-performing and aFrica policies are likely to be small. Mexico, the election is likely to sectors. It is already difficult for aBouT sponsors bring the opposition Institutional Across the Americas, economic employers to find skilled labor in Revolutionary Party (PRI) back to growth is expected to slow in 2012 Brazil’s energy and infrastructure power, while in Venezuela and the because of the eurozone crisis sectors and in Canada’s mining US, the incumbents are likely to and heightened uncertainty about and oil sectors. In Chile, where win another term—although this global growth. Many countries significant strikes hit the mining is by no means assured in either in the region will continue to sector in 2011, tight labor case. In the run-up to the election markets may embolden workers implement pragmatic economic in Venezuela, President Hugo to seek greater concessions policies in an effort to manage from employers in 2012. Chavez is likely to focus the labor slowing growth, but countries code more on social issues by such as Argentina, Ecuador, ■ ■ ■
  • 7. conTenTs 7 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012 preFace meThodology The americas overview The americas – risk index summary TaBle 2012 risk index argentina macro risks laBor risks Brazil Foreign canada political social security economic Flexibility availability Quality contentment investment chile costa rica Argentina 6 7 9 4 Y 4 Y 4 5 6 2 Y ecuador mexico Brazil 7 7 8 X 6 Y 6 5 5 5 7 united states asia paciFic Canada 10 9 9 5 X 8 7 6 7 6 europe and eurasia Chile 6 Y 7 Y 9 6 7 6 5 Y 7 4 middle easT and aFrica Colombia 6 7 6 5 6 6 5 X 5 3 aBouT sponsors Costa Rica 6 7 9 Y 4 Y 6 Y 7 5 6 5 Y Ecuador 5 5 7 5 Y 3 Y 4 4 4 5 X El Salvador 5 Y 6 6 Y 3 Y 5 7 4 4 6 Mexico 7 7 7 Y 5 6 6 X 6 6 7 Panama 6 Y 6 8 6 X 7 X 5 5 X 5 3 United States 7 8 9 6 X 7 8 6 8 5 Venezuela 5 7 6 3 X 2 Y 3 Y 5 5 3 X north america 8 8 8 5 7 7 6 7 6 central & south 6 7 8 5 5 5 5 5 4 america americas 6 7 8 5 6 6 5 6 5 For all variables, scores range from 1 to 10, where 1 is ‘high risk’ and 10 is ‘low risk’. Very positive trend positive trend negative trend Very negative trend
  • 8. conTenTs 8 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012 preFace meThodology The americas overview Brazil risk index reduce Brazil’s perennially high real skilled labor, particularly in the argentina interest rates. It will maintain tight construction and energy sectors, Brazil fiscal policies and keep the 2012 will continue to be driven by canada chile primary surplus target at 3.1% of the substantial investments costa rica ➔ President Dilma Rousseff GDP, though it will face difficulties planned in each of these areas. ecuador will continue to approach meeting it. If growth remains mexico tepid, policymakers are likely to The congressional calendar united states macroeconomic policy this year turn to the National Development will be somewhat curtailed as asia paciFic with the same pragmatism she Bank to boost lending or further national politicians stump for europe demonstrated during her first and eurasia loosen restrictions on credit growth allies in municipal elections this middle easT year in office. Policymakers will October. Even so, congress will Real wages will get a significant and aFrica to stimulate the economy. face mounting pressure to adopt aBouT sponsors likely approve a new oil royalty boost in 2012 because the stimulus measures given a weak Labor markets remain tight, with distribution framework (though minimum wage will climb external environment and a November unemployment at legal challenges will delay by 14%, which will drive slowdown in GDP growth from 5.2%, the lowest level in nine new bid rounds until 2013), wage increases throughout 7.5% in 2010 to an estimated years. Though slowing industrial the economy. Though wage pass a public sector pension 3.1% in 2011 and 3.5% in 2012. production could bring slight hikes are a major driver of reform, and make progress on But fears that the government relief in 2012, this would most service sector inflation and microeconomic reforms to facilitate will trade inflation for growth are likely not signal a downturn consensus 2012 inflation infrastructure investments. overblown. The economic team will but a cooling of an overheated expectations are above the keep using the global downturn to labor market. Demand for ■ ■ ■ 4.5% center of the central bank’s targeted inflation band, Low risk 10 MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS the government is bound by 9 its commitment made in early 8 2011 and is unlikely to anger 7 labor by reneging on it. 6 5 4 3 2 1 high risk 0 Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment Investment Very positive trend country macro risks Positive trend country labor risks Negative trend central & south america Central & South America Very negative trend americas Americas
  • 9. conTenTs 9 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012 preFace meThodology The americas overview Mexico risk index past two years. In the event of a facilitate decisive policymaking. argentina more pronounced global Brazil economic downturn, the The campaign will bring a flurry canada current government’s ability of finger-pointing and promises chile costa rica to pursue countercyclical fiscal to revamp the current strategy ➔ Expectations about Mexico’s ecuador measures would be constrained of fighting the drug cartels, but 2012 GDP have declined somewhat mexico by the upcoming election. a tactical shift is unlikely, even if united states because of a sluggish US economic the PRI wins. The government will asia paciFic recovery. The manufacturing The ruling National Action Party continue to rely on a heavy military europe sector—buoyed by strong and eurasia (PAN) could make a competitive run presence, close cooperation with middle easT automobile production, competitive and aFrica in July’s presidential contest, but the US, the growing role of the If Pena Nieto becomes wages and low transport costs for president, Mexico could face aBouT sponsors the opposition candidate Enrique federal police, and a push to fully goods to the US—will continue to Pena Nieto of the Institutional a more promising reform implement a 2008 judicial reform drive the expansion, although the Revolutionary Party (PRI) remains outlook compared to the past more quickly and effectively. In the service sector is also expected to favored; in late 2011, he led by decade. Labor reform is one of meantime, overall levels of violence support the economy. Employment 20 points with 44% support. It is the first items on the agenda will remain high, although a peak will continue to grow at a decent possible that the PRI could also and could advance quickly. has probably been reached. Any future labor proposal is pace (close to 3.0%–4.0%), win a working majority in both likely to include a series of albeit at a lower rate than in the houses of congress, which would ■ ■ ■ changes aimed at diversifying the ways workers can be hired, with the ultimate goal Low risk 10 MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS of making employer/worker 9 contract terms more flexible. 8 7 6 5 4 3 2 1 high risk 0 Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment Investment Very positive trend country macro risks Positive trend country labor risks Negative trend north america North America Very negative trend americas Americas
  • 10. conTenTs 10 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Overview: overview are well placed to win a majority in use spending on infrastructure risk index Seoul, while Hong Kong may see development and other programs australia Asia Pacific an actual race for chief executive. And in India, all eyes are on to attract foreign investment. china hong kong india bellwether state elections and the Security will also matter in 2012. indonesia transfer of power from Congress North Korea’s leadership transition Japan party leader Sonia Gandhi to a and Kim Jong-un’s efforts to malaysia new generation headed by her consolidate power pose serious new Zealand pakistan son Rahul. Legislative gridlock in risks to the region. Meanwhile, philippines ➔ A number of elections and Japan could prompt Prime Minister China will find that its neighbors are singapore political transitions in the Asia- Yoshihiko Noda to call an election less enamored with the country’s south korea Pacific region in 2012 will mean for the lower house of the Diet. economic heft and more wary of its Thailand a focus on domestic issues amid strategic intentions; governments Vietnam uncertainty stemming from the Many governments in the region europe from Tokyo to Manila will welcome and eurasia eurozone crisis and the global are revising economic forecasts for Washington’s efforts to reengage middle easT 2012 downward (with the exception and aFrica economic slowdown. As China Asia both economically and aBouT sponsors embarks on its most important of China, Vietnam, and Indonesia). militarily. Lastly, the drawdown of political transition in a decade, Japan, New Zealand, and Thailand US forces from Afghanistan could jockeying among elites will lead may mitigate some of the effects of limit the ability of diplomatic to risk aversion in policymaking. a global economic slowdown with efforts to forge peace in the region Elections will also dominate politics additional spending on rebuilding and damage regional economic in South Korea, Hong Kong, and efforts after recent natural disasters, integration and trade prospects. India, as well as Japan if a snap but authorities in Singapore, the election is held. Opposition parties Philippines, and Malaysia will ■ ■ ■
  • 11. conTenTs 11 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic asia paciFic – risk index summary TaBle 2012 overview risk index macro risks laBor risks australia Foreign china political social security economic Flexibility availability Quality contentment investment hong kong india Australia 7 9 9 7 X 10 6 5 Y 7 7 Y indonesia Bangladesh 5 4 6 4 Y 3 4 5 2 1 Japan malaysia China 5 6 Y 8 7 Y 4 5 7 7 X 5 Y new Zealand Hong Kong 6 8 9 7 Y 10 7 7 9 5 Y pakistan philippines India 5 4 5 6 Y 5 X 6 5 3 3 Y singapore Indonesia 5 6 8 5 X 5 X 5 6 5 3 Y south korea Thailand Japan 7 Y 9 9 4 X 8 6 5 8 7 Vietnam Malaysia 6 Y 7 9 6 6 X 6 5 7 X 6 europe and eurasia New Zealand 9 X 10 10 7 X 9 7 6 Y 7 6 middle easT and aFrica Pakistan 2 Y 3 1 Y 3 Y 5 5 3 2 2 aBouT sponsors Philippines 5 5 7 4 Y 5 5 6 X 5 6 Singapore 9 9 9 8 Y 8 7 5 Y 8 9 South Korea 6 Y 9 8 6 Y 7 X 6 6 7 5 Sri Lanka 7 6 9 3 3 Y 6 4 6 2 Thailand 4 Y 6 Y 8 5 Y 6 6 Y 7 7 8 Vietnam 5 X 6 9 4 X 4 X 5 6 5 5 south asia 5 4 5 4 4 5 4 3 2 east asia (ex. Japan) 6 7 8 6 6 6 6 7 6 pacific 8 9 9 6 9 6 5 7 7 asia paciFic 6 7 8 5 6 6 6 6 5 For all variables, scores range from 1 to 10, where 1 is ‘high risk’ and 10 is ‘low risk’. Very positive trend positive trend negative trend Very negative trend
  • 12. conTenTs 12 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Japan overview despite stimulus provided by Party of Japan (DPJ) does not risk index disaster recovery spending. control the Diet’s upper house. australia china On the political front, legislative The Diet session beginning in hong kong gridlock will constrain bold January provides two major india ➔ Prime Minister Yoshihiko indonesia reforms in 2012, but broad opportunities for opposition Noda appears better positioned Japan demographic shifts and obstruction—the fiscal year than recent predecessors to survive malaysia globalization are putting enormous 2012 budget and debate over new Zealand politically, but the opposition will pressure on Japan to embrace a consumption tax hike to cover pakistan work in 2012 to undermine his greater economic openness over rising social welfare costs. If Noda’s philippines government and push for early approval numbers remain strong, his singapore the medium and long term. A An amendment to the Worker elections. If the economy can south korea mildly positive economic outlook opponents will likely compromise Dispatch Act will probably Thailand bounce back from an estimated on the budget to avoid a snap will not offset tension within pass during the upcoming Vietnam contraction of 0.4% to 2.0% in and across political parties and election. Clashes over a tax increase Diet session. Responding to europe and eurasia 2011, Noda will be better able entrenched interest groups. Major will be acute, however, potentially pressure from advocates of more middle easT to engage in legislative battles. opposition parties, especially resulting in an election anyway. If flexibility in the labor market, and aFrica Unfortunately, unemployment is the Liberal Democratic Party Noda’s support wanes, he is likely the DPJ dropped the near- aBouT sponsors not forecast to drop significantly (LDP) and Komeito, can flex to step down or feel compelled total bans it had proposed on below the 4.9% rate seen in 2011, their muscles on budget matters to call an election by summer. employing temporary workers and deflation is expected to persist because Noda’s Democratic ■ ■ ■ in manufacturing as well as “registered” temporary workers (paid when dispatched). This Low risk 10 MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS change eliminates concerns 9 that the law would restrict the 8 ability of Japanese companies 7 to meet their labor needs 6 5 without having to hire more 4 costly permanent workers. 3 2 1 high risk 0 Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment Investment Very positive trend country macro risks Positive trend country labor risks Negative trend pacific Pacific Very negative trend asia pacific Asia Pacific
  • 13. conTenTs 13 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic New Zealand overview will hurt export sectors. The IMF reform policy agenda. Although the risk index estimated 2012 growth at 3.8%, Nationals did not win an outright australia while the OECD recently lowered majority, they secured their best china hong kong its forecast from 4.1% to 2.5%. performance in decades and quickly india ➔ The country’s economy Unemployment stood at 6.6% for moved to form a government in indonesia continues its slow recovery and the September quarter (1 July –30 association with smaller parties. In Japan will remain vulnerable to a global September 30), 0.2 percentage particular, Key views his election as malaysia new Zealand slowdown precipitated by events points higher than the same period a mandate to advance his economic pakistan in Europe and the US. GDP last year. The flat unemployment plan, which includes sales of energy philippines growth in 2011 is expected to be numbers are supported by a flat companies and airlines as well as singapore Trade promotion is expected close to 2%, boosted mainly by wage growth for the quarter, cuts in welfare payments to help south korea to be a major initiative of Thailand post-earthquake reconstruction suggesting that the central bank balance the government’s budget. the Key government, which Vietnam efforts and spending on the will keep interest rates low (2.5%) Key has pledged to return the will support job creation in europe rugby world cup. Reconstruction for the foreseeable future. budget to surplus by 2014–2015 and eurasia export sectors. The prime spending in 2012 will continue to middle easT at the latest, and investors and minister will look to finalize a and aFrica benefit both the economy and A fresh mandate for Prime Minister businesses will generally find free trade agreement with the aBouT sponsors job creation, although a relatively John Key’s National government comfort in Key’s policy agenda. US, and he will help advance strong New Zealand dollar and in the 26 November elections the Trans-Pacific Partnership, a weak external environment signals a move toward an economic ■ ■ ■ both of which are goals that the Labor opposition also supports. The offsetting factor Low risk 10 MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS over the next year or two, 9 however, will be a slowdown 8 in the export and tourism 7 sectors as the European and 6 5 US economies struggle. 4 3 2 1 high risk 0 Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment Investment Very positive trend country macro risks Positive trend country labor risks Negative trend pacific Pacific Very negative trend asia pacific Asia Pacific
  • 14. conTenTs 14 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012 preFace meThodology The americas asia paciFic Overview: europe the required spending cuts and tax support. But pursuing serious and eurasia overview increases may further slow already economic reforms is especially Europe and Eurasia struggling economies. On the other hand, few governments have hard in tough economic times. risk index Baltics Belgium the financial resources to embark The eurozone crisis hurt a number czech republic on aggressive stimulus spending of incumbent governments, and denmark some of these countries have France to jump-start their economies. ➔ The eurozone’s sovereign germany new governments as a result. hungary debt crisis will continue to put the Several governments are turning A few moved leftward in recent ireland countries of Europe and Eurasia to structural reform of their elections. Denmark, for instance, italy under considerable economic and economies, either on their own luxembourg elected a center-left coalition fiscal pressure in 2012. Many of initiative (Sweden, Denmark, netherlands after a decade with a center-right norway these countries face both a debt Hungary, and Poland) or under government. But others moved poland problem and a growth problem, pressure from markets and lenders rightward. After seven years in portugal and the potential solutions to one (Italy and Portugal). Both Italy and romania power in Spain, the Socialists were may exacerbate the other. Many russia Portugal have new governments badly defeated by a center-right serbia governments—including in the (Italy’s appointed, Portugal’s party. Two of the most important spain UK, France, Italy, and Spain—are elected) that appear committed elections in the region, in France sweden pursuing austerity programs in an to pushing through necessary but switzerland and Russia, are due in early 2012. effort to reduce their deficits and painful structural changes and Turkey ukraine contain sovereign debt levels. But have a good measure of popular ■ ■ ■ united kingdom middle easT and aFrica aBouT sponsors