The Global Market Brief & Labor Risk Index is based on detailed analysis of hard metrics of 30 unique labor market, socio-economic, and political factors, layered with localized expertise of in-country consultants.
The analysis aggregates the individual factors into 9 core risk variables: 5 macro variables and 4 labor variables that are each assigned a score on a 10-point scale projecting the degree of risk over the next
90 days. Each risk variable is also assessed as to whether it is trending negative or positive.
2. Global
Market Brief
& Labor Risk Index 2012
This is meThodology sample reporT only.
To subscribe to the global market Brief & labor risk index, visit kellyocg.com/marketbrief
4. conTenTs
4 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012 preFace
meThodology
The americas
asia paciFic
Preface
europe
Latin America. European countries transitions in a decade will result and eurasia
middle easT
will continue to tighten their belts in conservative policymaking, but and aFrica
even as that response further slows major political instability is unlikely aBouT sponsors
growth. Some countries in Asia will despite headlines. Elsewhere
have to rely on disaster spending, in the Asia-Pacific region, leftist
infrastructure development, and opposition parties look well placed
foreign investment to mitigate
to win a majority in South Korea,
slowing growth. Growth in the
while state elections in India will
global economy will depend on
serve as bellwether for later national
emerging markets nations: China
elections. In Sub-Saharan Africa,
and Indonesia in Asia, Ghana in
elections in Ghana and the ruling
sub-Saharan Africa, and those
party conference in South Africa will
nations in the Middle East whose
set the stage for intensifying labor
➔ If 2011 was marked by economies are supported by
high oil prices. agitation. And in Latin America,
crises—the Arab spring, the
elections in Mexico will likely
European financial crisis and
The coming year will also be return the opposition Institutional
Japan’s triple disaster—2012 will be
defined by political transitions. Revolutionary Party (PRI) to power,
characterized by political transitions
Some of the largest economies in while in Venezuela the outlook for
and global economic risk. The the world will focus on elections
economic and political stability
eurozone’s sovereign debt crisis, in 2012, including the US, France,
Teresa carroll, ian Bremmer, looks bleak no matter who wins the
sVp – centers president, as well as a slowdown in the global Russia, and possibly Japan. In
presidential election there.
of excellence, eurasia group economy, will bring uncertainty to China, elite competition during one
kelly services economies from Asia to Africa and of the most important leadership ■ ■ ■
5. conTenTs
5 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012 preFace
meThodology
The americas
asia paciFic
Methodology
europe
For all variables, scores range factors such as crime, military flexibility, assessing the regulatory and eurasia
middle easT
from 1 to 10, where 1 is ‘high spending, terrorism, domestic environment that employers face and aFrica
risk’ and 10 is ‘low risk’. and inter-state armed conflict, in managing human resources, aBouT sponsors
and security alliances. the ability of labor to influence
macro-poliTical/
macroeconomic environment: This policymaking, and the near-term
counTry risk
indicator captures the current health potential for changes in the
political environment: This labor regulatory environment.
of the macroeconomic environment
indicator measures the strength
by aggregating the risks of short-
and durability of the regime and labor availability: The labor
term and long-term economic
the government through factors availability indicator incorporates
instability. Short-term factors include
including the cohesiveness of the migration, urban population, the
economic and fiscal performance,
government and the opposition, the size of the labor force, the extent
while long-term factors take in
degree to which the government to which women participate in the
the structure of the economy,
has popular support, and the labor force, and unemployment.
the environment for the private
➔ The Global Market Brief & strength and transparency of
sector, and demographic trends. labor quality: The quality of labor
Labor Risk Index is based on detailed government institutions.
analysis of hard metrics of 30 unique policy environment for foreign is measured by the education
social environment: This
labor market, socio-economic, and investment: This indicator measures and skill level of a labor force, the
indicator captures the presence
political factors, layered with localized how hospitable a country is to general health of the population,
and intensity of, and the potential
expertise of in-country consultants. foreign investors by identifying and labor productivity.
for, social conflict. Factors include
and assessing any constraints on
income inequality, ethnic/class
The analysis aggregates the labor contentment: This
or barriers to economic activity,
conflict, urban population growth
individual factors into 9 core risk indicator assesses the likelihood
rates, and issues that can arise augmented by observing the degree
variables: 5 macro variables and 4 of labor discontent by combining
from poor government service to which the economy is already a
labor variables that are each assigned the existence or potential of
provision, such as high infant destination for foreign investment.
a score on a 10-point scale projecting near-term labor unrest with the
mortality and low literacy rates.
the degree of risk over the next misery index, which incorporates
90 days. Each risk variable is also security environment: This laBor risk
unemployment and inflation rates.
assessed as to whether it is trending indicator captures internal and labor market flexibility: This
negative or positive. external security risks, including indicator captures labor market ■ ■ ■
In addition to assessing the current risk environment, this report also takes into consideration the trajectory of risk trends.
Arrows alongside risk scores explain where risks are likely to show a very positive trend (X X), positive trend (X),
negative trend ( Y), very negative trend (Y Y ), or remain unchanged (blank) over the 1-year period of the report.
6. conTenTs
6 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012 preFace
meThodology
The americas
overview
Overview:
risk index
increasing severance pay, as well and Venezuela will maintain argentina
as unemployment and disability unorthodox economic policies Brazil
The Americas benefits. And Mexico’s labor
laws are likely to be overhauled
and direct intervention in their
economies. That said, the ability
canada
chile
costa rica
after the election—particularly of some governments to respond
ecuador
if the PRI wins—to make work may be hindered by political mexico
contracts more flexible. In contrast, stalemate, particularly in the US. united states
although the US election will asia paciFic
➔ There are three major Despite slowing growth, labor europe
draw attention to the issue of and eurasia
elections in 2012, in Mexico, markets are expected to remain
immigrants, any changes in visa middle easT
Venezuela, and the US. In tight in some well-performing and aFrica
policies are likely to be small.
Mexico, the election is likely to sectors. It is already difficult for aBouT sponsors
bring the opposition Institutional Across the Americas, economic employers to find skilled labor in
Revolutionary Party (PRI) back to growth is expected to slow in 2012 Brazil’s energy and infrastructure
power, while in Venezuela and the because of the eurozone crisis sectors and in Canada’s mining
US, the incumbents are likely to and heightened uncertainty about and oil sectors. In Chile, where
win another term—although this global growth. Many countries significant strikes hit the mining
is by no means assured in either in the region will continue to sector in 2011, tight labor
case. In the run-up to the election markets may embolden workers
implement pragmatic economic
in Venezuela, President Hugo to seek greater concessions
policies in an effort to manage
from employers in 2012.
Chavez is likely to focus the labor slowing growth, but countries
code more on social issues by such as Argentina, Ecuador, ■ ■ ■
7. conTenTs
7 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012 preFace
meThodology
The americas
overview
The americas – risk index summary TaBle 2012
risk index
argentina
macro risks laBor risks Brazil
Foreign canada
political social security economic Flexibility availability Quality contentment
investment chile
costa rica
Argentina 6 7 9 4 Y 4 Y 4 5 6 2 Y ecuador
mexico
Brazil 7 7 8 X 6 Y 6 5 5 5 7
united states
asia paciFic
Canada 10 9 9 5 X 8 7 6 7 6
europe
and eurasia
Chile 6 Y 7 Y 9 6 7 6 5 Y 7 4 middle easT
and aFrica
Colombia 6 7 6 5 6 6 5 X 5 3 aBouT sponsors
Costa Rica 6 7 9 Y 4 Y 6 Y 7 5 6 5 Y
Ecuador 5 5 7 5 Y 3 Y 4 4 4 5 X
El Salvador 5 Y 6 6 Y 3 Y 5 7 4 4 6
Mexico 7 7 7 Y 5 6 6 X 6 6 7
Panama 6 Y 6 8 6 X 7 X 5 5 X 5 3
United States 7 8 9 6 X 7 8 6 8 5
Venezuela 5 7 6 3 X 2 Y 3 Y 5 5 3 X
north america 8 8 8 5 7 7 6 7 6
central & south
6 7 8 5 5 5 5 5 4
america
americas 6 7 8 5 6 6 5 6 5
For all variables, scores range from 1 to 10, where 1 is ‘high risk’ and 10 is ‘low risk’.
Very positive trend
positive trend
negative trend
Very negative trend
8. conTenTs
8 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012 preFace
meThodology
The americas
overview
Brazil
risk index
reduce Brazil’s perennially high real skilled labor, particularly in the argentina
interest rates. It will maintain tight construction and energy sectors, Brazil
fiscal policies and keep the 2012 will continue to be driven by canada
chile
primary surplus target at 3.1% of the substantial investments
costa rica
➔ President Dilma Rousseff GDP, though it will face difficulties planned in each of these areas.
ecuador
will continue to approach meeting it. If growth remains mexico
tepid, policymakers are likely to The congressional calendar united states
macroeconomic policy this year
turn to the National Development will be somewhat curtailed as asia paciFic
with the same pragmatism she
Bank to boost lending or further national politicians stump for europe
demonstrated during her first and eurasia
loosen restrictions on credit growth allies in municipal elections this middle easT
year in office. Policymakers will
October. Even so, congress will Real wages will get a significant and aFrica
to stimulate the economy.
face mounting pressure to adopt aBouT sponsors
likely approve a new oil royalty boost in 2012 because the
stimulus measures given a weak Labor markets remain tight, with distribution framework (though minimum wage will climb
external environment and a November unemployment at legal challenges will delay by 14%, which will drive
slowdown in GDP growth from 5.2%, the lowest level in nine new bid rounds until 2013), wage increases throughout
7.5% in 2010 to an estimated years. Though slowing industrial the economy. Though wage
pass a public sector pension
3.1% in 2011 and 3.5% in 2012. production could bring slight hikes are a major driver of
reform, and make progress on
But fears that the government relief in 2012, this would most service sector inflation and
microeconomic reforms to facilitate
will trade inflation for growth are likely not signal a downturn consensus 2012 inflation
infrastructure investments.
overblown. The economic team will but a cooling of an overheated expectations are above the
keep using the global downturn to labor market. Demand for ■ ■ ■ 4.5% center of the central
bank’s targeted inflation band,
Low risk 10
MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS the government is bound by
9 its commitment made in early
8 2011 and is unlikely to anger
7
labor by reneging on it.
6
5
4
3
2
1
high risk 0
Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment
Investment
Very positive trend country macro risks
Positive trend country labor risks
Negative trend central & south america
Central & South America
Very negative trend americas
Americas
9. conTenTs
9 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012 preFace
meThodology
The americas
overview
Mexico
risk index
past two years. In the event of a facilitate decisive policymaking. argentina
more pronounced global Brazil
economic downturn, the The campaign will bring a flurry canada
current government’s ability of finger-pointing and promises chile
costa rica
to pursue countercyclical fiscal to revamp the current strategy
➔ Expectations about Mexico’s ecuador
measures would be constrained of fighting the drug cartels, but
2012 GDP have declined somewhat mexico
by the upcoming election. a tactical shift is unlikely, even if united states
because of a sluggish US economic
the PRI wins. The government will asia paciFic
recovery. The manufacturing
The ruling National Action Party continue to rely on a heavy military
europe
sector—buoyed by strong and eurasia
(PAN) could make a competitive run presence, close cooperation with middle easT
automobile production, competitive and aFrica
in July’s presidential contest, but the US, the growing role of the If Pena Nieto becomes
wages and low transport costs for president, Mexico could face aBouT sponsors
the opposition candidate Enrique federal police, and a push to fully
goods to the US—will continue to Pena Nieto of the Institutional a more promising reform
implement a 2008 judicial reform
drive the expansion, although the Revolutionary Party (PRI) remains outlook compared to the past
more quickly and effectively. In the
service sector is also expected to favored; in late 2011, he led by decade. Labor reform is one of
meantime, overall levels of violence
support the economy. Employment 20 points with 44% support. It is the first items on the agenda
will remain high, although a peak
will continue to grow at a decent possible that the PRI could also
and could advance quickly.
has probably been reached. Any future labor proposal is
pace (close to 3.0%–4.0%), win a working majority in both
likely to include a series of
albeit at a lower rate than in the houses of congress, which would ■ ■ ■
changes aimed at diversifying
the ways workers can be
hired, with the ultimate goal
Low risk 10
MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS of making employer/worker
9 contract terms more flexible.
8
7
6
5
4
3
2
1
high risk 0
Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment
Investment
Very positive trend country macro risks
Positive trend country labor risks
Negative trend north america
North America
Very negative trend americas
Americas
10. conTenTs
10 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012 preFace
meThodology
The americas
asia paciFic
Overview:
overview
are well placed to win a majority in use spending on infrastructure risk index
Seoul, while Hong Kong may see development and other programs australia
Asia Pacific an actual race for chief executive.
And in India, all eyes are on
to attract foreign investment. china
hong kong
india
bellwether state elections and the Security will also matter in 2012.
indonesia
transfer of power from Congress North Korea’s leadership transition
Japan
party leader Sonia Gandhi to a and Kim Jong-un’s efforts to malaysia
new generation headed by her consolidate power pose serious new Zealand
pakistan
son Rahul. Legislative gridlock in risks to the region. Meanwhile,
philippines
➔ A number of elections and Japan could prompt Prime Minister China will find that its neighbors are
singapore
political transitions in the Asia- Yoshihiko Noda to call an election less enamored with the country’s south korea
Pacific region in 2012 will mean for the lower house of the Diet. economic heft and more wary of its Thailand
a focus on domestic issues amid strategic intentions; governments Vietnam
uncertainty stemming from the Many governments in the region europe
from Tokyo to Manila will welcome and eurasia
eurozone crisis and the global are revising economic forecasts for
Washington’s efforts to reengage middle easT
2012 downward (with the exception and aFrica
economic slowdown. As China Asia both economically and aBouT sponsors
embarks on its most important of China, Vietnam, and Indonesia).
militarily. Lastly, the drawdown of
political transition in a decade, Japan, New Zealand, and Thailand
US forces from Afghanistan could
jockeying among elites will lead may mitigate some of the effects of
limit the ability of diplomatic
to risk aversion in policymaking. a global economic slowdown with
efforts to forge peace in the region
Elections will also dominate politics additional spending on rebuilding
and damage regional economic
in South Korea, Hong Kong, and efforts after recent natural disasters,
integration and trade prospects.
India, as well as Japan if a snap but authorities in Singapore, the
election is held. Opposition parties Philippines, and Malaysia will ■ ■ ■
11. conTenTs
11 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012 preFace
meThodology
The americas
asia paciFic
asia paciFic – risk index summary TaBle 2012
overview
risk index
macro risks laBor risks australia
Foreign china
political social security economic Flexibility availability Quality contentment
investment hong kong
india
Australia 7 9 9 7 X 10 6 5 Y 7 7 Y indonesia
Bangladesh 5 4 6 4 Y 3 4 5 2 1 Japan
malaysia
China 5 6 Y 8 7 Y 4 5 7 7 X 5 Y new Zealand
Hong Kong 6 8 9 7 Y 10 7 7 9 5 Y pakistan
philippines
India 5 4 5 6 Y 5 X 6 5 3 3 Y singapore
Indonesia 5 6 8 5 X 5 X 5 6 5 3 Y south korea
Thailand
Japan 7 Y 9 9 4 X 8 6 5 8 7
Vietnam
Malaysia 6 Y 7 9 6 6 X 6 5 7 X 6 europe
and eurasia
New Zealand 9 X 10 10 7 X 9 7 6 Y 7 6 middle easT
and aFrica
Pakistan 2 Y 3 1 Y 3 Y 5 5 3 2 2 aBouT sponsors
Philippines 5 5 7 4 Y 5 5 6 X 5 6
Singapore 9 9 9 8 Y 8 7 5 Y 8 9
South Korea 6 Y 9 8 6 Y 7 X 6 6 7 5
Sri Lanka 7 6 9 3 3 Y 6 4 6 2
Thailand 4 Y 6 Y 8 5 Y 6 6 Y 7 7 8
Vietnam 5 X 6 9 4 X 4 X 5 6 5 5
south asia 5 4 5 4 4 5 4 3 2
east asia (ex. Japan) 6 7 8 6 6 6 6 7 6
pacific 8 9 9 6 9 6 5 7 7
asia paciFic 6 7 8 5 6 6 6 6 5
For all variables, scores range from 1 to 10, where 1 is ‘high risk’ and 10 is ‘low risk’.
Very positive trend
positive trend
negative trend
Very negative trend
12. conTenTs
12 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012 preFace
meThodology
The americas
asia paciFic
Japan
overview
despite stimulus provided by Party of Japan (DPJ) does not risk index
disaster recovery spending. control the Diet’s upper house. australia
china
On the political front, legislative The Diet session beginning in hong kong
gridlock will constrain bold January provides two major india
➔ Prime Minister Yoshihiko indonesia
reforms in 2012, but broad opportunities for opposition
Noda appears better positioned Japan
demographic shifts and obstruction—the fiscal year
than recent predecessors to survive malaysia
globalization are putting enormous 2012 budget and debate over new Zealand
politically, but the opposition will
pressure on Japan to embrace a consumption tax hike to cover pakistan
work in 2012 to undermine his
greater economic openness over rising social welfare costs. If Noda’s philippines
government and push for early approval numbers remain strong, his singapore
the medium and long term. A An amendment to the Worker
elections. If the economy can south korea
mildly positive economic outlook opponents will likely compromise Dispatch Act will probably Thailand
bounce back from an estimated on the budget to avoid a snap
will not offset tension within pass during the upcoming Vietnam
contraction of 0.4% to 2.0% in and across political parties and election. Clashes over a tax increase Diet session. Responding to europe
and eurasia
2011, Noda will be better able entrenched interest groups. Major will be acute, however, potentially pressure from advocates of more
middle easT
to engage in legislative battles. opposition parties, especially resulting in an election anyway. If flexibility in the labor market, and aFrica
Unfortunately, unemployment is the Liberal Democratic Party Noda’s support wanes, he is likely the DPJ dropped the near- aBouT sponsors
not forecast to drop significantly (LDP) and Komeito, can flex to step down or feel compelled total bans it had proposed on
below the 4.9% rate seen in 2011, their muscles on budget matters to call an election by summer. employing temporary workers
and deflation is expected to persist because Noda’s Democratic ■ ■ ■
in manufacturing as well as
“registered” temporary workers
(paid when dispatched). This
Low risk 10
MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS change eliminates concerns
9 that the law would restrict the
8 ability of Japanese companies
7
to meet their labor needs
6
5
without having to hire more
4
costly permanent workers.
3
2
1
high risk 0
Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment
Investment
Very positive trend country macro risks
Positive trend country labor risks
Negative trend pacific
Pacific
Very negative trend asia pacific
Asia Pacific
13. conTenTs
13 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012 preFace
meThodology
The americas
asia paciFic
New Zealand
overview
will hurt export sectors. The IMF reform policy agenda. Although the risk index
estimated 2012 growth at 3.8%, Nationals did not win an outright australia
while the OECD recently lowered majority, they secured their best china
hong kong
its forecast from 4.1% to 2.5%. performance in decades and quickly
india
➔ The country’s economy Unemployment stood at 6.6% for moved to form a government in indonesia
continues its slow recovery and the September quarter (1 July –30 association with smaller parties. In Japan
will remain vulnerable to a global September 30), 0.2 percentage particular, Key views his election as malaysia
new Zealand
slowdown precipitated by events points higher than the same period a mandate to advance his economic
pakistan
in Europe and the US. GDP last year. The flat unemployment plan, which includes sales of energy philippines
growth in 2011 is expected to be numbers are supported by a flat companies and airlines as well as singapore
Trade promotion is expected
close to 2%, boosted mainly by wage growth for the quarter, cuts in welfare payments to help south korea
to be a major initiative of Thailand
post-earthquake reconstruction suggesting that the central bank balance the government’s budget.
the Key government, which Vietnam
efforts and spending on the will keep interest rates low (2.5%) Key has pledged to return the will support job creation in europe
rugby world cup. Reconstruction for the foreseeable future. budget to surplus by 2014–2015 and eurasia
export sectors. The prime
spending in 2012 will continue to middle easT
at the latest, and investors and minister will look to finalize a and aFrica
benefit both the economy and A fresh mandate for Prime Minister
businesses will generally find free trade agreement with the aBouT sponsors
job creation, although a relatively John Key’s National government
comfort in Key’s policy agenda. US, and he will help advance
strong New Zealand dollar and in the 26 November elections the Trans-Pacific Partnership,
a weak external environment signals a move toward an economic ■ ■ ■ both of which are goals that
the Labor opposition also
supports. The offsetting factor
Low risk 10
MACRO RISKS LABOR RISKS over the next year or two,
9 however, will be a slowdown
8 in the export and tourism
7
sectors as the European and
6
5
US economies struggle.
4
3
2
1
high risk 0
Political Social Security Economic Foreign Flexibility Availability Quality Contentment
Investment
Very positive trend country macro risks
Positive trend country labor risks
Negative trend pacific
Pacific
Very negative trend asia pacific
Asia Pacific
14. conTenTs
14 | gloBal markeT BrieF & laBor risk index 2012 preFace
meThodology
The americas
asia paciFic
Overview:
europe
the required spending cuts and tax support. But pursuing serious and eurasia
overview
increases may further slow already economic reforms is especially
Europe and Eurasia struggling economies. On the
other hand, few governments have
hard in tough economic times.
risk index
Baltics
Belgium
the financial resources to embark The eurozone crisis hurt a number czech republic
on aggressive stimulus spending of incumbent governments, and denmark
some of these countries have France
to jump-start their economies.
➔ The eurozone’s sovereign germany
new governments as a result.
hungary
debt crisis will continue to put the Several governments are turning A few moved leftward in recent ireland
countries of Europe and Eurasia to structural reform of their elections. Denmark, for instance, italy
under considerable economic and economies, either on their own luxembourg
elected a center-left coalition
fiscal pressure in 2012. Many of initiative (Sweden, Denmark, netherlands
after a decade with a center-right
norway
these countries face both a debt Hungary, and Poland) or under government. But others moved poland
problem and a growth problem, pressure from markets and lenders rightward. After seven years in portugal
and the potential solutions to one (Italy and Portugal). Both Italy and romania
power in Spain, the Socialists were
may exacerbate the other. Many russia
Portugal have new governments badly defeated by a center-right
serbia
governments—including in the (Italy’s appointed, Portugal’s party. Two of the most important spain
UK, France, Italy, and Spain—are elected) that appear committed
elections in the region, in France sweden
pursuing austerity programs in an to pushing through necessary but switzerland
and Russia, are due in early 2012.
effort to reduce their deficits and painful structural changes and Turkey
ukraine
contain sovereign debt levels. But have a good measure of popular ■ ■ ■
united kingdom
middle easT
and aFrica
aBouT sponsors