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Impact Evaluation Training with AERC: Kenya's NICHE Programme Technical Research Proposal

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A hypothetical technical proposal for Kenya's NICHE programme from our impact evaluation training with AERC in Nairobi, Kenya in July 2019.

Published in: Government & Nonprofit
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Impact Evaluation Training with AERC: Kenya's NICHE Programme Technical Research Proposal

  1. 1. TECHNICAL PROPOSAL IMPACT EVALUATION OF KENYA NUTRITION IMPROVEMENT THROUGH CASH AND HEALTH EDUCATION (NICHE) PROGRAM Technical Workshop on Impact Evaluation Methods 24 June – 05 July, 2019 Nairobi Safari Club, Nairobi, Kenya BECHO Isabelle John Njoroge Maara Kwami Ossadzifo Wonyra Mamadou Nouhou Diallo Samson Katengeza
  2. 2. OUTLINE Background Description of intervention Research questions Hypotheses Conceptual framework – theory of change Sampling design Empirical model and estimation strategy
  3. 3. BACKGROUND Chronic malnutrition among children can be reduced by improving women’s nutrition during and after pregnancy. Cash transfer programs can increase consumption and food security, dietary diversity, and infant and young child feeding. However its direct impact on malnutrition indicators (e.g. stunting, wasting and under nutrition) remains mixed. Interventions entailing both cash transfers and nutritional counselling have shown a decrease in stunting, underweight and wasting among children. Hence a NICHE program to provide additional cash and health and nutrition information to facilitate positive behavior change that will reduce malnutrition.
  4. 4. DESCRIPTION OF THE INTERVENTION Key interventions of NICHE program include: 1. Cash transfer top-up 2. Nutrition counseling 3. Integrated approach (i.e. cash transfer top-up and nutrition counselling) Target population: • Households with a pregnant woman or with a child under the age of two years Two population of interest: 1. Those currently on cash transfer and eligible for cash transfer top-up and nutrition counselling. 2. Those without any cash transfer program Duration: • The initial duration of the program is three years.
  5. 5. Geographical location Kitui county Machakos County
  6. 6. RESEARCH QUESTIONS 1. What is the impact of cash transfer top up on nutritional status in cash transfer population? 2. 3. What is the impact of nutrition counselling on prevalence of chronic malnutrition (e.g. stunting) in cash transfer population? 4. 5. What is the impact of integrated approach (Cash transfer top up + nutrition counselling) on prevalence of chronic malnutrition (e.g. stunting) in cash transfer population? 6. 7. What is the impact of cash transfer top up on prevalence of chronic malnutrition (e.g. stunting) in non-cash transfer population? •
  7. 7. RESEARCH QUESTIONS - OUTCOMES Based on stated research questions, the program has the following outcomes Main outcome: Nutritional status 1. Linear Growth and Weight of children 2. Stunting • Intermediate outcomes 1. Utilization of health services 2. Frequency of meals (consumption) 3. Adherence to breast feeding
  8. 8. HYPOTHESES The following hypotheses are therefore developed Main hypotheses 1. Cash Transfer Top Up intervention improves nutritional status. 2. Nutrition Counseling intervention improves nutritional status. 3. The integrated Cash Transfert Top Up and Counseling intervention improves nutritional status more than each intervention alone. Secondary hypotheses 1. Cash Transfert Top Up intervention improves secondary outcomes 2. Counseling intervention improves nutritional status
  9. 9. CONCEPTUAL FRAMEWORK – THEORY OF CHANGE • • Consumption Prevalence of good nutrition Behavior Change CASH TRANSFER NUTRITION COUNSELING ² § Stunting § Improvement in linear growth and weight § Frequency of prenatal visits § Frequency of child feeding § Timely provision of child supplimentaray food INTERVENTIONS INTERMEDIATE OUTCOMES FINAL OUTCOME
  10. 10. EVALUATION DESIGN (1) Target Population CURRENT BENEFICIRIES OF CASH TRANSFER TOP UP TOP UP +COUNSELINGS COUNSELINGS No TOP UP No COUNCELINGS Comparison groups Treatment groups
  11. 11. EVALUATION DESIGN(2) Target Population NO CURRENT BENEFICIRIES OF CASH TRANSFER TOP UP NO TOP UP NO CASH Comparison groups Treatment groups
  12. 12. IMPACT IDENTIFICATION STRATEGY Experimental design (RCT) With the target population of current beneficieries of cash transfer, the RCT will have 4 arms (i.e. will randomly select 4 groups) 1. P1: Cash Transfer Top Up intervention 2. P2: Nutrition Counseling intervention 3. P3: The integrated approach (with Cash Transfer Top Up and Counseling intervention) 4. Comparison group without cash transfer top-up and nutrition counseling For the population without cash transfer, the RCT will have 2 arms 1. P1: Cash Transfer Top Up intervention 2. Comparison group without cash transfer top-up
  13. 13. Graphical approach Base line Improvement in linear growth Follow up Counseling only With Top up only Comparaison group Integrated (with Top Up+ Counseling)
  14. 14. Graphical approach Base line Prevalence of stunting Follow up With Counseling only With Top up only Integrated (with Top Up+ Counseling) Outcome for control group
  15. 15. SAMPLING DESIGN Unit: Household Concerns: Spillovers hence will use cluster-sampling technique Settings • Total number of households currently receiving cash transfer • variance of our outcome in the target population • ICC • Type 1 error • Type 2 error
  16. 16. SAMPLING DESIGN n Treated nCT nCounseling nCT+CounselingControl
  17. 17. EMPIRICAL MODEL AND ESTIMATION STRATEGY + ++ + + + + + Variables 1. P1: Cash Transfert Top Up intervention (P=1, Top Up only, P=0, No Top Up & No Counseling) 1. 2. P2: Counseling intervention (P=1, received counseling only, & P=0, No Top Up & No Counseling) 1. 3. P3: The integrated intervention (P=1, received both Top Up & Counseling, P=0, No Top Up & No Counseling) 4. 5. T: (0 for baseline , 1 for Follow up) 6. 7. X: vector of control variables 8. 9. is the error term
  18. 18. Variables description 1. Dependent variables: • Linear growth and child weight • Prevalence of malnutrition (e.g. stunting) 2. 3. Indipendent variables • Treatment variables (receiving cash transfer top up and receiving nutrition counselling) • Control variables • Household characteristics (gender, houshold size, education, occupation) • Household endowments (income, expenditure, farm size, assets etc) • Instutitions (distance to health center, access to information etc) • Access to organizations (e.g. those implementing similar programs) • EMPIRICAL MODEL AND ESTIMATION STRATEGY
  19. 19. The paramters in the stated model will be estimated using DID estimation strategy This method assumes that in the absence of treatment, the average change in the response variable would have been the same for both the treatment and control groups. And this will estimate the ATT assuming full compliane or LATE if not compliance • Advantages of this estimation strategy: • Controls for unobserved heterogeneity • Control of spillovers over effects • Disadvantages and weakeneses of this estimation strategy • Ethical issues • Cost of data collection • EMPIRICAL MODEL AND ESTIMATION STRATEGY
  20. 20. Thanks for your attention Merci pour votre attention

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