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Valuation Project
Thao Le, Kevin Oliphant, Tobias Mahonen
Step 1
Pick the Companies
Industry: Semiconductors
Founded: 1968
Founders: Gordon Moore,
Robert Noyce
CEO: Brian Krzanich
Employees: 107,600
Headquarters: Santa Clara,
California
Market Cap $178.35 B
As of December 27, 2014
Price per Share: $37.55
52-Week Range: 25.74 - 37.90
Yield: 2.85%
Average Vol: 32.2 Million
Debt: 13.7 Billion
Equity: 55.9 Billion
Intel Corp manufactures and sells computer
components and related products. They
design communication components, such as
microprocessors found in traditional
personal computers, chipsets, and
motherboards.
Intel operates its
business through many
segments:
PC Client Group: Offers products that are incorporated into notebook
and desktop computers, such as microprocessors, chipsets, and
motherboards.
Data Center Group: Offers products that provide performance and
energy efficiency for server, workstation, and storage platforms.
Memory Solutions Group: Delivers flash memory storage devices
and digital memory cards.
#243 America’s Best
Employers
#13 World’s Most Valuable
Brands
#78 Global 2000
#161 in Sales
#50 in Profit
#271 in Assets
#47 in Market Value
Three Comparable Firms:
-Texas Instruments Inc.
-Microchip Technology Inc.
-Avago Technologies Ltd.
Market Cap $57.3 B
As of December 27, 2014
Price per Share: $54.74
52-Week Range: 41.93 - 55.58
Yield: 2.34%
Average Vol: 5.6 Million
Debt: 4.6 Billion
Equity: 10.4 Billion
Texas Instruments Inc. is an electronics
company that designs and makes
semiconductors. Headquartered at Dallas,
Texas, and is the third largest manufacturer
of semiconductors worldwide.
Market Cap $9.5 B
As of December 27, 2014
Price per Share: $45.52
52-Week Range: 37.73 - 49.83
Yield: 3.01%
Average Vol: 3.2 Million
Debt: 1.4 Billion
Equity: 2.3 Billion
Microchip Technology Inc. is a leading
supplier of microcontrollers, or MCUs, which
are semiconductors that act as the brains
within many common electronic devices,
such as remote controls and garage door
openers.
Market Cap $30.7 B
As of December 27, 2014
Price per Share: $101.29
52-Week Range: 63.50 - 103.99
Yield: 1.12%
Average Vol: 2.3 Million
Debt: 5.5 Billion
Equity: 3.3 Billion
Avago Technologies Ltd manufactures
semiconductor products such as
optoelectronics, radio-frequency and
microwave components.
Step 2
Discounted Cashflow
Valuation
Key Assumptions
1. High growth rate in the next five years. Then changes to
steady state growth rate
2. Business is not volatile → Risk Premium→ RE
3. Constant Debt Ratio during forecast period
→ DCF and not APV
Required Data
Book Values and Weights of Debt & Equity
RE = Cost of Equity
RD = Cost of Debt
g = Growth Rate
High-Growth
Stable-Growth
WACC
RD = Cost of Debt
Bond 1 Bond 2 Bond3 Bond 4 Bond 5 Bond 6 Bond 7 Bond 8 Bond 9 Total
YTM 1.12% 2.16% 0.64% 1.52% 2.63% 4.27% 0.67% 4.06% 3.58%
Issue Size 3000 2000 2000 1600 1500 1500 1500 925 750 14775
Percentage of Total 20.30% 13.54% 13.54% 10.83% 10.15% 10.15% 10.15% 6.26% 5.08% 100.00%
Cost of Debt (Weighted Average YTM) 1.98% YTM1 x (B1/Total) +...+ YTM9 x (B9/Total) = RD
● Data from Morningstar ● Issue size in Millions
RE = Cost of Equity
Risk-free rate 1.95%
Risk Premium 7.11%
Beta 0.93
Cost of Equity 8.56% RE = Rf + B(Rm- Rf)
● Beta → Finance.Yahoo
● Rf → CNNMoney
○ 10 Year U.S. Treasury Bond
● Risk Premium → HistretSP.xls (Titanium)
○ Arithmetic Average → Not Volatile
○ Geometric → Volatile
Arithmetic Average on Investments in
Year S&P 500
3-month
T.Bill
10-year T.
Bond
1928-2014 11.53% 3.53% 5.28%
1965-2014 11.23% 5.04% 7.11%
2005-2014 9.37% 1.44% 5.31%
gH = High-Growth Growth Rate
NET INCOME GROWTH
2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
Net Income $11,704.00 $9,620.00 $11,005.00 $12,942.00 $11,464.00
NI growth $2,084.00 -$1,385.00 -$1,937.00 $1,478.00
growth rate 21.66% -12.59% -14.97% 12.89%
Average NI growth rate 1.75%
REVENUE GROWTH
2014 2013 2012 2011 2010
Revenue $55,870.00 $52,708.00 $53,341.00 $53,999.00 $43,623.00
Revenue change $3,162.00 -$633.00 -$658.00 $10,376.00
Revenue growth 6.00% -1.19% -1.22% 23.79%
Average growth rate 6.84%
Industry Name Number of Firms ROE Retention Ratio Fundamental Growth
Semiconductor 141 20.68% 69.47% 14.37%
Fund. Growth = ROE x Retent. Ratio
Our gh= Average(1.75%,14.37%,6.84%)
gh= 7.65%
Other Data
● gs = Steady-state growth rate = 1.95%
→ 10 year U.S. Treasury Bond
● BV of Debt = 13.7 Bil
● BV of Equity = 55.9 Bil
→ Total BV of Capital = 69.9 Bil
(Annual Statement, as of Dec 27, 2014)
● # of Shares Outstanding → 4.75 Bil
● Price per Share (as of 12/27/14) = $37.55
● Market Value of Equity = 4.7 x 37.55 = 178.35Bil
● Tax Rate = 35%
Debt Ratio =
19.68%
Equity Ratio =
80.32%
Debt/ Equity Ratio = 24.5%
WACC - Weighted Cost of Capital
WACC = RE x WE + RD x WD x (1-t)
→ = 8.56% x 80.32% + 1.98% x 19.68% x (1-35%)
WACC = 7.13%
Summary of Data
# of Shares outstanding 4.75 Billion
Price per Share $37.55
Market Value of Equity 178.35 Billion
BV of Equity 55.9 Billion
BV of Debt 13.7 Billion
Total Capital 69.6 Billion
Weight of equity 80.32%
Weight of debt 19.68%
Cost of Equity 8.56%
Cost of Debt 1.98%
Tax Rate 35.00%
WACC 7.13%
Price/Share
Step 3
Value relative to
Comparables
Multiples Comparison
Intel is undervalued
Step 4
APV Valuation Approach
5% Increase in Debt for the next 5 years
APV – Calculating New Cost of Capital (RE)
Levered Beta = 0.93
Unlevered Beta =
BL
=
0.93
= 0.8
[(1-t)(D/E)+1] [(1-35%)(0.245)+1]
New RE = 1.95%+0.8 x (7.11%) = 7.64%
APV – Calculating FCF & Tax Savings
APV – Calculating PV
Step 5
Value Enhancement
Strategies
a.If the growth rate doubles..
b) If the length of high growth doubles..
Which option gives higher Value?
Additional Value Added is greatest when
→ Growth Rate Doubles
Step 5
Final Value Estimate and
Recommendation
- In both DCF and Multiples valuation, the firm
is undervalued
- Intrinsic price/share: $43.12
- Market price/share : $37.55
→ The investors should purchase Intel stocks
Recommendation

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Valuing Intel Corporation with DCF and Multiples Analysis

  • 1. Valuation Project Thao Le, Kevin Oliphant, Tobias Mahonen
  • 2. Step 1 Pick the Companies
  • 3. Industry: Semiconductors Founded: 1968 Founders: Gordon Moore, Robert Noyce CEO: Brian Krzanich Employees: 107,600 Headquarters: Santa Clara, California
  • 4. Market Cap $178.35 B As of December 27, 2014 Price per Share: $37.55 52-Week Range: 25.74 - 37.90 Yield: 2.85% Average Vol: 32.2 Million Debt: 13.7 Billion Equity: 55.9 Billion Intel Corp manufactures and sells computer components and related products. They design communication components, such as microprocessors found in traditional personal computers, chipsets, and motherboards.
  • 5. Intel operates its business through many segments: PC Client Group: Offers products that are incorporated into notebook and desktop computers, such as microprocessors, chipsets, and motherboards. Data Center Group: Offers products that provide performance and energy efficiency for server, workstation, and storage platforms. Memory Solutions Group: Delivers flash memory storage devices and digital memory cards.
  • 6. #243 America’s Best Employers #13 World’s Most Valuable Brands #78 Global 2000 #161 in Sales #50 in Profit #271 in Assets #47 in Market Value
  • 7. Three Comparable Firms: -Texas Instruments Inc. -Microchip Technology Inc. -Avago Technologies Ltd.
  • 8. Market Cap $57.3 B As of December 27, 2014 Price per Share: $54.74 52-Week Range: 41.93 - 55.58 Yield: 2.34% Average Vol: 5.6 Million Debt: 4.6 Billion Equity: 10.4 Billion Texas Instruments Inc. is an electronics company that designs and makes semiconductors. Headquartered at Dallas, Texas, and is the third largest manufacturer of semiconductors worldwide.
  • 9. Market Cap $9.5 B As of December 27, 2014 Price per Share: $45.52 52-Week Range: 37.73 - 49.83 Yield: 3.01% Average Vol: 3.2 Million Debt: 1.4 Billion Equity: 2.3 Billion Microchip Technology Inc. is a leading supplier of microcontrollers, or MCUs, which are semiconductors that act as the brains within many common electronic devices, such as remote controls and garage door openers.
  • 10. Market Cap $30.7 B As of December 27, 2014 Price per Share: $101.29 52-Week Range: 63.50 - 103.99 Yield: 1.12% Average Vol: 2.3 Million Debt: 5.5 Billion Equity: 3.3 Billion Avago Technologies Ltd manufactures semiconductor products such as optoelectronics, radio-frequency and microwave components.
  • 12. Key Assumptions 1. High growth rate in the next five years. Then changes to steady state growth rate 2. Business is not volatile → Risk Premium→ RE 3. Constant Debt Ratio during forecast period → DCF and not APV
  • 13. Required Data Book Values and Weights of Debt & Equity RE = Cost of Equity RD = Cost of Debt g = Growth Rate High-Growth Stable-Growth WACC
  • 14. RD = Cost of Debt Bond 1 Bond 2 Bond3 Bond 4 Bond 5 Bond 6 Bond 7 Bond 8 Bond 9 Total YTM 1.12% 2.16% 0.64% 1.52% 2.63% 4.27% 0.67% 4.06% 3.58% Issue Size 3000 2000 2000 1600 1500 1500 1500 925 750 14775 Percentage of Total 20.30% 13.54% 13.54% 10.83% 10.15% 10.15% 10.15% 6.26% 5.08% 100.00% Cost of Debt (Weighted Average YTM) 1.98% YTM1 x (B1/Total) +...+ YTM9 x (B9/Total) = RD ● Data from Morningstar ● Issue size in Millions
  • 15. RE = Cost of Equity Risk-free rate 1.95% Risk Premium 7.11% Beta 0.93 Cost of Equity 8.56% RE = Rf + B(Rm- Rf) ● Beta → Finance.Yahoo ● Rf → CNNMoney ○ 10 Year U.S. Treasury Bond ● Risk Premium → HistretSP.xls (Titanium) ○ Arithmetic Average → Not Volatile ○ Geometric → Volatile Arithmetic Average on Investments in Year S&P 500 3-month T.Bill 10-year T. Bond 1928-2014 11.53% 3.53% 5.28% 1965-2014 11.23% 5.04% 7.11% 2005-2014 9.37% 1.44% 5.31%
  • 16. gH = High-Growth Growth Rate NET INCOME GROWTH 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 Net Income $11,704.00 $9,620.00 $11,005.00 $12,942.00 $11,464.00 NI growth $2,084.00 -$1,385.00 -$1,937.00 $1,478.00 growth rate 21.66% -12.59% -14.97% 12.89% Average NI growth rate 1.75% REVENUE GROWTH 2014 2013 2012 2011 2010 Revenue $55,870.00 $52,708.00 $53,341.00 $53,999.00 $43,623.00 Revenue change $3,162.00 -$633.00 -$658.00 $10,376.00 Revenue growth 6.00% -1.19% -1.22% 23.79% Average growth rate 6.84% Industry Name Number of Firms ROE Retention Ratio Fundamental Growth Semiconductor 141 20.68% 69.47% 14.37% Fund. Growth = ROE x Retent. Ratio Our gh= Average(1.75%,14.37%,6.84%) gh= 7.65%
  • 17. Other Data ● gs = Steady-state growth rate = 1.95% → 10 year U.S. Treasury Bond ● BV of Debt = 13.7 Bil ● BV of Equity = 55.9 Bil → Total BV of Capital = 69.9 Bil (Annual Statement, as of Dec 27, 2014) ● # of Shares Outstanding → 4.75 Bil ● Price per Share (as of 12/27/14) = $37.55 ● Market Value of Equity = 4.7 x 37.55 = 178.35Bil ● Tax Rate = 35% Debt Ratio = 19.68% Equity Ratio = 80.32% Debt/ Equity Ratio = 24.5%
  • 18. WACC - Weighted Cost of Capital WACC = RE x WE + RD x WD x (1-t) → = 8.56% x 80.32% + 1.98% x 19.68% x (1-35%) WACC = 7.13%
  • 19. Summary of Data # of Shares outstanding 4.75 Billion Price per Share $37.55 Market Value of Equity 178.35 Billion BV of Equity 55.9 Billion BV of Debt 13.7 Billion Total Capital 69.6 Billion Weight of equity 80.32% Weight of debt 19.68% Cost of Equity 8.56% Cost of Debt 1.98% Tax Rate 35.00% WACC 7.13%
  • 20.
  • 22. Step 3 Value relative to Comparables
  • 24. Step 4 APV Valuation Approach 5% Increase in Debt for the next 5 years
  • 25. APV – Calculating New Cost of Capital (RE) Levered Beta = 0.93 Unlevered Beta = BL = 0.93 = 0.8 [(1-t)(D/E)+1] [(1-35%)(0.245)+1] New RE = 1.95%+0.8 x (7.11%) = 7.64%
  • 26. APV – Calculating FCF & Tax Savings
  • 29. a.If the growth rate doubles..
  • 30. b) If the length of high growth doubles..
  • 31. Which option gives higher Value? Additional Value Added is greatest when → Growth Rate Doubles
  • 32. Step 5 Final Value Estimate and Recommendation
  • 33. - In both DCF and Multiples valuation, the firm is undervalued - Intrinsic price/share: $43.12 - Market price/share : $37.55 → The investors should purchase Intel stocks Recommendation