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INDEX
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 2
The concept The Drivers The Process Risk & Return
Measuring
Returns
WACC
Factors
Affecting
Business Value
Risk FactorsIndustry RiskGeneral Factors
Business
Valuation
Methods
THE CONCEPT
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 3
Valuation is the process of determining the “economic worth” of an asset or company under
certain assumptions & limiting conditions & subject to the data available at the valuation date.
Business valuation is a process & a set of procedures used to estimate the economic value of an
owner’s interest in a business.
Valuation is used by financial market participants to determine the price they are willing to pay
or receive to affect a sale of a business.
Business
Value
Drivers
Financial
Leverage
Future
Performance
Financial
Expected
Return
Cash Flows
Asset Types
Exit Strategy
THE PROCESS
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 5
Obtain an in-depth understanding of
the business & business ownership
interest
Step #1
Perform a thorough financial &
qualitative analysis
Step #2
Consider all three valuation
approaches
•Income approach
•Market approach
•Asset-based approach
Step #3
Consider valuation adjustments (e.g.
discounts or premiums)
Step #4
Reconcile indicated values to arrive
at a conclusion of value
Step #5
Present findings in a report
Step #6
THE PROCESS (CONT.)
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 6
Understanding what is being
valued
• Understanding broad overview of
valuation requirements
• Industry analysis
• Market conditions
Valuation Methodology
Assessment
• Discounted Cash Flow
• Capitalization of Earnings
• Net tangible assets
• Quoted market price
Valuation adjustments
• Discount for lack of marketability
• Discount for minority interests
• Premium for control
• Any other case: specific
considerations
Valuation Calculations &
Report
• Valuation prepared
• Documentation in report
consistent with Taxation
Office/Audit requirements
Review process
• Assessment of market
transactions to support valuations
Presentation of the result
• Final report produced
• Discussions of major assumptions
& valuation findings
RISK & RETURN
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 7
A direct correlation exists between risk & return.
The greater the risk, the greater is the potential return.
Investments with the highest returns often bears the greatest
risk can lead to financial ruins.
The risk an investor is willing to accept to maximize returns will
depend on his/her risk appetite & risk tolerance levels.
RISK-RETURN
RELATIONSHIP
MODEL
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.C
OM
8
CONCEPTUAL
RISK-RETURN
RELATIONSHIP
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.C
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9
TYPES OF RISK & RETURN
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 10
Speculation
High risk Investments
Futures, options, junk bonds
Growth
Moderate risk investments
Stocks, mutual funds, real estate
Safety & Income
Low risk investments
Corporate bonds, government bonds, treasury securities
Financial Security
Cash & cash equivalents
Savings accounts, certificates of deposit, T-bills, insurance
MEASURING RETURN: CAPM FORMULA
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 11
CAPM
Risk
Free
Rate
Beta
Excess
Market
Return
Excess
Market
Return
Market
Return
Risk
Free
Rate
MEASURING RETURN: CAPM FORMULA
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 12
Rs = Rf + ß (Rm – Rf)
Rs = Expected Return [Required return on investment]
Rf = Risk-free Return [Return that can be earned on a risk-free investment]
Rm =Average Return on all securities
ß = The Securities beta (Systematic) risk factor
ASSUMPTIONS OF CAPM
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 13
All investors aim to
maximize economic
returns
All investors make
decisions based on
risks & returns
Investors are rational &
risk-averse
Investors cannot
influence prices
All investors have the
same expectations
towards input factors
for investment
decisions
All investors have
access to unlimited
funds
All investments as
liquid & be sold at
market price
No or insignificant
transaction costs
WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL (WACC)
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 14
WACC
Cost of
Equity
Cost of
Debt
(after tax)
Weighted by the proportion of debt
& equity in the capital structure
WACC
FORMULA
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.C
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15
EXAMPLE OF WACC
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 16
Capital
Structure
Equity
Debt Financing
Loans
Total
WACC
Capital
400,000
150,000
50,000
600,000
Return
22%
15%
12%
Ratio
67%
25%
8%
100%
After Tax
Return
22%
10.8%
8.6%
WACC
14.7%
2.7%
0.71%
18.1%
Value of
the
business
Risk Factors
Competition
Investment
Alternatives
Economic
Environment
History of
Business
Nature of
Business
Financial
Performance
RISK FACTORS
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 18
External
Expectations of the economy
Existing conditions of the economy
Expectation of the industry
Existing conditions in the industry
Competitive environment
Internal
Expectation of the business
Financial position/conditions of the
business
Competitive position of the
business
Nature & size of the business
Quality & depth of management
Investment
Risk factors of the investment
Amount invested in the business
Expectation in capital appreciation
Expectation in liquidity of the
investment
Level of expected management
burden
RISK FACTORS
(CONT.)
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 19
Types of Risk
Systematic
Risk
Uncontrollable
by an entity
Marco in
nature
Unsystematic
Risk
Controllable by
an entity
Micro in nature
RISK FACTORS
(CONT.)
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 20
Systematic Risk
• Interest Rate Risk
• Market Risk
• Purchasing Power/Inflationary
Risk
Unsystematic Risk
• Business Risk/Liquidity Risk
• Financial Risk/Credit Risk
• Operational Risk
Industry
Risk
Growth
Prospects
Technology
Porter’s
Five Forces
GENERAL FACTORS
22
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM
What affects value?
Customer loyalty
Opening hours Online presence
Trading history
Sector demand
Value of
fixtures/fittings
Lease/rent
conditions
Trading location
Future potential
Condition of
property
Financial
performance
Strength of brand
suppliers
VALUATION METHODS
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 23
Income based approach
Prefect to explore the intrinsic value
of any business by evaluating the
cash flows, NPV, equity method, &
economic profit model
Asset based approach
Value the business on the market
value of assets, replacement costs,
& liquidation value of the assets
Market based approach
This approachcomes in handy when
capturing the market sentiment,
considering the peers.
VALUATION APPROACHES & METHODS
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 24
Going Concern Approach
Income
Capitalized
earnings
Capitalized
cash flow
Discounted
cash flow
Asset
Adjusted net
book value
Market
Comparable
public
companies
Comparable
transactions
Rules of
thumb
ASSET-BASED METHODS
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 25
• Method represents the book value of the business (assets -
liabilities) based on their market values [Going Concern]Book Value Method
• Method represents the book value of the business based
on liquidation values [Disposal Values]
Liquidation Value
Method
• Method represents the book value of the business based
on the replacement values of the assets [Start-ups]
Replacement
Value Method
EXAMPLE OF ASSET-BASED APPROACH
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 26
Item
Non-current Assets
Intangible Assets
Inventory
Other Assets
Equity
Non-Current Liabilities
Current Liabilities
Net Asset Value
BookValue
240,000
90,000
180,000
370,000
320,000
250,000
310,000
320,000
MarketValue
320,000
50,000
160,000
370,000
250,000
370,000
380,000
The book value of the business is JOD 320K (minimum going concern value).
The net asset value (market value of the business) is JOD 380K (Estimated selling value)
NET ASSET VALUE METHOD
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 27
Advantages
• Asset accumulation method is very useful
when allocating the purchase price among
the individual business assets
• Useful to value asset-based or property
investment companies
Disadvantages
• Value of individual assets may vary
significantly depending the basis used to
value the assets
• May be difficult in valuing individual assets
as the assets may be interdependent
• Methods ignore off-balance sheet assets &
liabilities
OFF-BALANCE SHEET ASSETS & LIABILITIES
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 28
Assts
Intellectual property items
Key distribution & customer contracts
Strategic partnership agreements
Liabilities
Pending legal judgements
Property & income tax obligations
Environmental compliance costs
VALUATION OF INTANGIBLE ASSETS
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 29
Market Value
Based on market prices for similar
transaction concluded recently
Capitalized Income
Used for intangible assets that
generate cash or income –
capitalized at fair return or
discounted cash flow
Cost Based
Estimation of the cost to reproduce
the intangible asset
FORECASTING METHODS
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM30
Forecasting
Methods
Quantitative
Causal
(Explanatory)
Time Series Smoothing
Trends &
Seasonal
Qualitative
Delphi
Scenario
writing
Expert
judgement
FORECASTING TECHNIQUES
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM31
Forecasting
Techniques
Judgmental
Models
Delphi
Method
Time Series
Methods
Moving
Average
Exponential
Smoothing
Seasonality
Models
Causal
Method
Regression
Analysis
SEVEN STEPS IN FORECASTING
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 32
Determine the use of the
forecast
Step #1
Select the items to be
forecasted
Step #2
Determine the time horizon
of the forecast
Step #3
Select the forecasting
model(s)
Step #4
Gather the data
Step #5
Make the forecast
Step #6
Validate & implement
results
Step #7
EARNINGS/CASH FLOW BASED METHOD
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 33
Generally, the capitalization earnings/cash flow
method is appropriate for
A mature business with
relatively consistent
earnings/cash flow
A business where average
earnings/cash flow can be
reasonably estimated
throughout a business cycle
A business for which
forecasts are not available
or are not reliable
ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 35
Business Valuation: Methods & Approaches

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The 48 Laws of Power - Law 28 - Enter Action with Boldness
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The 48 Laws of Power - Law 26 - Keep Your Hands Clean
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The 48 Laws of Power - Law 25 - Recreate Yourself
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The 48 Laws of Power - Law 23 - Concentrate Your Forces
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Business Valuation: Methods & Approaches

  • 1.
  • 2. INDEX ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 2 The concept The Drivers The Process Risk & Return Measuring Returns WACC Factors Affecting Business Value Risk FactorsIndustry RiskGeneral Factors Business Valuation Methods
  • 3. THE CONCEPT ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 3 Valuation is the process of determining the “economic worth” of an asset or company under certain assumptions & limiting conditions & subject to the data available at the valuation date. Business valuation is a process & a set of procedures used to estimate the economic value of an owner’s interest in a business. Valuation is used by financial market participants to determine the price they are willing to pay or receive to affect a sale of a business.
  • 5. THE PROCESS ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 5 Obtain an in-depth understanding of the business & business ownership interest Step #1 Perform a thorough financial & qualitative analysis Step #2 Consider all three valuation approaches •Income approach •Market approach •Asset-based approach Step #3 Consider valuation adjustments (e.g. discounts or premiums) Step #4 Reconcile indicated values to arrive at a conclusion of value Step #5 Present findings in a report Step #6
  • 6. THE PROCESS (CONT.) ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 6 Understanding what is being valued • Understanding broad overview of valuation requirements • Industry analysis • Market conditions Valuation Methodology Assessment • Discounted Cash Flow • Capitalization of Earnings • Net tangible assets • Quoted market price Valuation adjustments • Discount for lack of marketability • Discount for minority interests • Premium for control • Any other case: specific considerations Valuation Calculations & Report • Valuation prepared • Documentation in report consistent with Taxation Office/Audit requirements Review process • Assessment of market transactions to support valuations Presentation of the result • Final report produced • Discussions of major assumptions & valuation findings
  • 7. RISK & RETURN ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 7 A direct correlation exists between risk & return. The greater the risk, the greater is the potential return. Investments with the highest returns often bears the greatest risk can lead to financial ruins. The risk an investor is willing to accept to maximize returns will depend on his/her risk appetite & risk tolerance levels.
  • 10. TYPES OF RISK & RETURN ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 10 Speculation High risk Investments Futures, options, junk bonds Growth Moderate risk investments Stocks, mutual funds, real estate Safety & Income Low risk investments Corporate bonds, government bonds, treasury securities Financial Security Cash & cash equivalents Savings accounts, certificates of deposit, T-bills, insurance
  • 11. MEASURING RETURN: CAPM FORMULA ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 11 CAPM Risk Free Rate Beta Excess Market Return Excess Market Return Market Return Risk Free Rate
  • 12. MEASURING RETURN: CAPM FORMULA ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 12 Rs = Rf + ß (Rm – Rf) Rs = Expected Return [Required return on investment] Rf = Risk-free Return [Return that can be earned on a risk-free investment] Rm =Average Return on all securities ß = The Securities beta (Systematic) risk factor
  • 13. ASSUMPTIONS OF CAPM ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 13 All investors aim to maximize economic returns All investors make decisions based on risks & returns Investors are rational & risk-averse Investors cannot influence prices All investors have the same expectations towards input factors for investment decisions All investors have access to unlimited funds All investments as liquid & be sold at market price No or insignificant transaction costs
  • 14. WEIGHTED AVERAGE COST OF CAPITAL (WACC) ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 14 WACC Cost of Equity Cost of Debt (after tax) Weighted by the proportion of debt & equity in the capital structure
  • 16. EXAMPLE OF WACC ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 16 Capital Structure Equity Debt Financing Loans Total WACC Capital 400,000 150,000 50,000 600,000 Return 22% 15% 12% Ratio 67% 25% 8% 100% After Tax Return 22% 10.8% 8.6% WACC 14.7% 2.7% 0.71% 18.1%
  • 18. RISK FACTORS ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 18 External Expectations of the economy Existing conditions of the economy Expectation of the industry Existing conditions in the industry Competitive environment Internal Expectation of the business Financial position/conditions of the business Competitive position of the business Nature & size of the business Quality & depth of management Investment Risk factors of the investment Amount invested in the business Expectation in capital appreciation Expectation in liquidity of the investment Level of expected management burden
  • 19. RISK FACTORS (CONT.) ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 19 Types of Risk Systematic Risk Uncontrollable by an entity Marco in nature Unsystematic Risk Controllable by an entity Micro in nature
  • 20. RISK FACTORS (CONT.) ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 20 Systematic Risk • Interest Rate Risk • Market Risk • Purchasing Power/Inflationary Risk Unsystematic Risk • Business Risk/Liquidity Risk • Financial Risk/Credit Risk • Operational Risk
  • 22. GENERAL FACTORS 22 ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM What affects value? Customer loyalty Opening hours Online presence Trading history Sector demand Value of fixtures/fittings Lease/rent conditions Trading location Future potential Condition of property Financial performance Strength of brand suppliers
  • 23. VALUATION METHODS ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 23 Income based approach Prefect to explore the intrinsic value of any business by evaluating the cash flows, NPV, equity method, & economic profit model Asset based approach Value the business on the market value of assets, replacement costs, & liquidation value of the assets Market based approach This approachcomes in handy when capturing the market sentiment, considering the peers.
  • 24. VALUATION APPROACHES & METHODS ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 24 Going Concern Approach Income Capitalized earnings Capitalized cash flow Discounted cash flow Asset Adjusted net book value Market Comparable public companies Comparable transactions Rules of thumb
  • 25. ASSET-BASED METHODS ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 25 • Method represents the book value of the business (assets - liabilities) based on their market values [Going Concern]Book Value Method • Method represents the book value of the business based on liquidation values [Disposal Values] Liquidation Value Method • Method represents the book value of the business based on the replacement values of the assets [Start-ups] Replacement Value Method
  • 26. EXAMPLE OF ASSET-BASED APPROACH ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 26 Item Non-current Assets Intangible Assets Inventory Other Assets Equity Non-Current Liabilities Current Liabilities Net Asset Value BookValue 240,000 90,000 180,000 370,000 320,000 250,000 310,000 320,000 MarketValue 320,000 50,000 160,000 370,000 250,000 370,000 380,000 The book value of the business is JOD 320K (minimum going concern value). The net asset value (market value of the business) is JOD 380K (Estimated selling value)
  • 27. NET ASSET VALUE METHOD ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 27 Advantages • Asset accumulation method is very useful when allocating the purchase price among the individual business assets • Useful to value asset-based or property investment companies Disadvantages • Value of individual assets may vary significantly depending the basis used to value the assets • May be difficult in valuing individual assets as the assets may be interdependent • Methods ignore off-balance sheet assets & liabilities
  • 28. OFF-BALANCE SHEET ASSETS & LIABILITIES ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 28 Assts Intellectual property items Key distribution & customer contracts Strategic partnership agreements Liabilities Pending legal judgements Property & income tax obligations Environmental compliance costs
  • 29. VALUATION OF INTANGIBLE ASSETS ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 29 Market Value Based on market prices for similar transaction concluded recently Capitalized Income Used for intangible assets that generate cash or income – capitalized at fair return or discounted cash flow Cost Based Estimation of the cost to reproduce the intangible asset
  • 30. FORECASTING METHODS ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM30 Forecasting Methods Quantitative Causal (Explanatory) Time Series Smoothing Trends & Seasonal Qualitative Delphi Scenario writing Expert judgement
  • 32. SEVEN STEPS IN FORECASTING ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 32 Determine the use of the forecast Step #1 Select the items to be forecasted Step #2 Determine the time horizon of the forecast Step #3 Select the forecasting model(s) Step #4 Gather the data Step #5 Make the forecast Step #6 Validate & implement results Step #7
  • 33. EARNINGS/CASH FLOW BASED METHOD ALBASHATARIQ@OUTLOOK.COM 33 Generally, the capitalization earnings/cash flow method is appropriate for A mature business with relatively consistent earnings/cash flow A business where average earnings/cash flow can be reasonably estimated throughout a business cycle A business for which forecasts are not available or are not reliable
  • 34.