DEF Logistics is a top ten global provider of supply chain solutions that has grown through acquisitions, with a target price of $52 per share representing 60% upside. The company has a robust business model strengthened by acquisitions, operates in the large and growing third-party logistics market, and appears undervalued relative to its peers based on various valuation methods. However, integration challenges from acquisitions and competitive risks from startups in the logistics technology space represent key risks to the investment thesis.
If this Giant Must Walk: A Manifesto for a New Nigeria
Stock Pitch For Logistics Services PowerPoint Presentation PPT Slide Template
1. Stock Pitch
For logistics Services
Company: DEF Logistics (NYSE: DEF)
Action: Long
Price Target: $52 (60% Upside)
2. Key Market Statistics
Share Price (11/14/2018) $31.92
52W High $52.46
52W Low $21.96
Avg.3 Daily Volume ($ MM) $40.99
Short Interest (% of DSO) 24.2%
Shares Out (MM) 132.91
Market Cap ($MM) $4,111
Adj. Net Debt ($MM) $5,800
Min. Interest ($MM) $836
EV ($MM) $10,747
Revenue 2019E ($MM) $15,758
Adj. EBITDA 2019E ($MM) $1,198
EV/EBITDA 2019 8.97x
Company Overview
2
DEF Logistics
Freight
(27.0%)
Transportation
(36.5%)
f
Contract Logistics
(36.5%)
Less-than-Truckload
(23.3%)
Truckload
(3.8%)
Brokerage & Intermodal
(12.5%)
Last-Mile & Expedite
(5.7%)
Europe
(15.8%)
Global Forwarding
(2.5%)
(%)% Consolidation Revenue 2018E Proforma
Asset-heavy (Acquired from Company 2 )
DEF Logistics is a top ten global provider of supply chain solutions
It enables customers to operate their supply chain more efficiently
and at lower cost
CEO consolidate the fragmented logistics market and started in 2017, with the
purchase of Express-1, a express carrier that operated an asset light model with
almost $210 million in revenue
Today, DEF has more than $16 billion of revenue and $1.2 billion of pro
forma 2018E EBITDA
Its integrated network includes approximately 85,000 employees at 1,569 locations
in 33 countries serving over 51,000 customers
Specify here, broadly, an
overview of your company
along with Trading Statistics,
Target Pricing & the Market
value. This would help in
creating a great impact for your
stocks in the market. You can
also list down here information
related to your financials as
well as give an overview of the
company valuation.
3. Investment Thesis
3
DEF´s business model became robust with the acquisitions
DEF is a leading player in the fragmented and secularly growing third-
party logistics (3PL) market
One-time costs associated with acquisitions mask a profitable and
attractive core business
Compelling valuations
Here, we have mentioned
the core reasons to buy the
stocks of DEF Logistics .
These points have been
further explained in the
coming slides
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4. Investment Thesis
4
DEF´s business model became robust with the
acquisitions
DEF is a leading player in the fragmented and secularly
growing third-party logistics (3PL) market
One-time costs associated with acquisitions mask a
profitable and attractive core business
Compelling valuations
Here, we have mentioned
the core reasons to buy the
stocks of DEF Logistics .
These points have been
further explained in the
coming slides
5. Thesis 1: Robust Business Model through Acquisitions
5
Overview on
Company 1 Acquisition
Overview on
Company 2 Acquisition
On April 2018 DEF announced the acquisition of Company 1. The price
paid (including debt) was $3,730 million
Company 1 is a provider of contract logistics (52% 2017 revenues),
transportation (24%), freight brokerage (18%) and global forwarding (6%)
Company 1’s 25% of contract logistics revenues are generated in
the United States (Company 1 bought ABC Companies on August
2017 by $850 million, 9.6x EBITDA)
Company 1 had 2017 Revenue and EBITDA of $5,700
and $488 million, respectively
EV to EBITDA multiple paid pre-synergies is 9.2x
We estimate cost synergies of $116 million, which translates to an
effective multiple of 7.1x (versus an average of 10.4x 3PL M&A
transactions)
On September 2018 DEF announced the acquisition of Company
2. The price paid (including debt) was $3,300 million
Company 2 is the second largest provider of less-than-truckload
(LTL) services in North America (65% 3Q18 revenues)
Company 2 also participates in the truckload business
(12% 3Q18 revenues)
LTM Revenues and EBITDA of $5,600 and
$521.6 million, respectively
DEF expects to increase profit by $180-$220 million
within next 24 months
We estimate cost synergies of $210 million, which translate
to an effective multiple of 4.3x
Through its subsidiary XYZ Logistics (asset light), Company 2 is a
top 20 global contract logistics provider (37% 3Q18 revenues)
EV to EBITDA multiple paid pre-synergies is 5.8x
This slide covers the
inorganic mode of growth
taken by the Company
through means of
acquisition of two
companies. You can write
salient features of each
acquisition on each side of
the slide
6. Market View Our View
CEO went too far too quickly
› Leader in the raising and fragmented truck brokerage business in Europe.
• 14%+ growth in the truck brokerage market
› Immediate cross-selling opportunities as the leading transatlantic contract logistics provider
• DEF signed a contract with Zara to execute their e-fulfillment in North America within 23 days after closing
› Pro forma, DEF has #1 market share in last-mile providers in Europe
• Sector growing at 25% yoy
The integration would be challenging. It would be difficult to
increase profitability
› 3Q18 Results
• European transportation EBITDA increased by 25%
• European logistics EBITDA increased by 18%
› Within the first 8 months, DEF:
• Leveraged technology platform (DEF Freight Optimizer, CRM)
• Changed the compensation plan
• Shut down unprofitable business
Thesis1: Robust Business Model through Acquisitions (cont..)
6
View Point on Company 1 Acquisition
This slides compares our
views with respect to market
views. This is helpful in
analysis of synergy
generated through
acquisition
This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention.
7. Thesis1:Robust Business Model through Acquisitions (cont..)
7
View Point on Company 2 Acquisition
This slide is 100% editable. Adapt it to your needs and capture your audience's attention.
Market View Our View
This acquisition does not make
sense. The integration is not a piece of cake”
› The acquisitions are responses to what is changing in the industry and what CEO has learned as a result of the Company 1
acquisition.
• “Shippers are increasingly looking to 3PL to not only help them design solutions for their challenges but also to execute” –
Vice President of Logistics
• “Commerce’s increased need for same-day and next-day delivery” –Logistics Management review
• LTL capacity is going to get tighter
› Customer retention is increased by controlling LTL capacity and becoming a true “one-stop logistics and execution shop”
It adds cyclicality to the business model in a moment that the
economy is moving towards recession
› LTL is not as cyclical as the truckload business.
› By giving pricing power to LTL carriers, LTL supply capacity is currently tight
› After the acquisition capex increases only nominally from 2.4% to 3.2% as a % of sales
› In the LTL business you can make the truck last 16 years and cut capex to almost nothing in downside scenarios.” – Buy-side
analyst
This slides compares our
views with respect to market
views. This is helpful in
analysis of synergy
generated through
acquisition
8. Thesis 1: Robust Business Model through Acquisitions (contd..)
8
8.8%
11.2%
13.1%
21.2%
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
Company 1 Company 2 Company 3 Company 4
LTL Carrier Margin EBITDA (Avg. last two years)
View Point on Company 2 Acquisition
This slides compares our views
with respect to market views.
This is helpful in analysis of
synergy generated through
acquisition. Graph below also
captured the operating profit
margin for last 2 years. You
can replace this metrics by any
other parameter of your choice
Market View Our View
Cost savings of $180-$220 million are
overestimated by DEF management
› Our value-added research confirms Company 2´s
management was
› complacent and undisciplined about efficiency
› “DEF realized that Company 2 was giving away
about $110 million a year to customers of uncharged
accessorial.” – Buy-side analyst
› “There is much more work that we can do to drive
efficiencies and improve network management and
return the overall investment on capital to our
shareholders in a better way.” – Former Company 2
CEO, 2Q18 conference call
9. Thesis 2: DEF: A leading player in the Third-party Logistics (3PL) Market
9
Multimodal capabilities can help solve shippers’ increasingly complicated supply chain problems and generate sticky
3PL/shipper relationships
Only ~14% of all shipments sourced via a 3PL
› Our value-added research confirms this is a market that can reach 44% of shipments
Vendor consolidation – one throat to choke
› DEF´s One-Stop-Shop strategy
eCommerce and e Fullfillment growth
› DEF is the leader in eCommerce logistics
Demand for last-mile solutions
› The 3PL market is expected to grow at 3-4x GDP per year
Armstrong & Associates Top 10 Global 3pls – April 2018
2017
Rank Third-party Provider Gross Mkt. Share
1 Competitor 1 32,193 4.6%
2 Competitor 2 23,293 3.3%
3 Competitor 3 19,861 2.8%
4 Competitor4 17,916 2.5%
5 Competitor 5 13,470 1.9%
6 Competitor 6 8,661 1.2%
7 Competitor 7 7,864 1.1%
8 Competitor 8 7,483 1.1%
9 DEF (DEF + Company 1 + Company 2 ) 7,483 1.1%
10 Competitor 9 7,463 1.1%
Add the key growth drivers in
this industry. Along with this,
mention the players with their
market share to get a clear
competitive landscape
Fragmentation
There are more than 13,000 3PL
providers. Many are smaller
local providers that mostly offer
one unsophisticated service,
truckload brokerage
DEF overinvested in its
technology platform upfront
with the vision and capability
of taking on future
acquisitions and quickly
integrating them
GrowthDrivers
10. Thesis 3: One-time Costs Associated with Acquisitions Mask a Profitable and
Attractive Core Business
10
$ 282.40 $ 581.00 $ 662.50 $ 830.70 $ 702.70 $ 1,215.90 $ 2,362.10
51%
49% 48%
39%
18%
10% 10.2%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
$0
$500
$1,000
$1,500
$2,000
$2,500
1Q17 2Q17 3Q17 4Q17 1Q18 2Q18 3Q18
Revenue ($ million) and Organic Revenue Growth
Revenue Organic Revenue Growth
DEF shares have slumped in recent months on bottom-line miss.
The net income has significantly decreased by 400.8% when
compared to the same quarter one year ago
This growth in revenue does not appear to have trickled
down to the company's bottom line, displayed by a
decline in earnings per share
-28.8
-13.8 -11.6 -9.9
-14.4
-78.8
-35.4
-$10.3
$13.1 $13
$40.5
$28.8
$75.6
$130.1
$10.8 $1 $10.9 $1.5 $0.6 $75.6 $36
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
1Q14 2Q14 3Q14 4Q14 1Q15 2Q15 3Q15
EBITDA & Net Income ($ million)
Net Income EBITDA Transaction & Integration Cost
This slide covers various
financial parameters such
Revenue, Organic Revenu
Growth, Operating Profit, N
Income etc. Add your own
parameters to look your
business more lucrative
11. Thesis 3: One-time Costs Associated with Acquisitions Mask a Profitable and
Attractive Core Business (contd..)
11
56.8%
58.9%
64.3%
69.6%
40%
45%
50%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
2018E 2019E 2020E 2021E
Free Cash Flow Conversion
10.6%
12.2%
15.8% 16.2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
2018E 2019E 2020E 2020E
ROIC
DEF is now entering an “integration phase” in which organic revenue growth will
translate into free cash flow generation and ROIC expansion
This will trigger a multiple re-rating and serve as a catalyst for the stock price
This slide covers various
financial parameters such as
Free cash flow, Return on
Invested capital etc. You can
replace it with other parameters
such as Revenue, Organic
Revenue Growth, Operating
Profit, Net Income etc
FCF Conversion Asset-Light Business
FCF Conversion Asset- Heavy Business
DEF’s Weighted Average* FCF Conversion
This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes automatically based on data. Just left click on it and select “Edit Data”.
12. 1.9 2.6 3.81.4 1.6 2.2
0
1
2
3
4
2018E 2019E 2019E
Free Cash Flow to Equity per Fully Diluted Shares and
FCFE Yield
Base Case No Margin Expansion
Thesis 4: Compelling Valuations
12
Other Valuation Methods
Valuation Method Base Case No Margin Expansion Bear Case
DCF $52.92 $29.90 $29.90
Sum-of-the parts $46.45 $33.85 $25.05
Price Targets $49.68 $31.88 $27.47
Upside 60.6% 3.1% -11.2%
Multiple(@ Market Price $31.92 )
EV to EBITDA 2019 8.97x 9.49x 9.49x
EV to EBITDA 2020 7.61x 8.87x 8.87x
EV to EBITDA 2021 6.33x 7.72x 7.72x
Multiples (@ Price target )
EV to EBITDA 2019 11.05x 9.60x 9.09x
EV to EBITDA 2020 9.37x 8.97x 8.49x
EV to EBITDA 2021 7.79x 7.8x 7.39x
3PL Providers LTL Carriers TL Carriers
Press EV to fwd EBITDA multiple 10.72x 5.85x 5.77x
Weighted Average Multiple 9.78x
The company’s “low base scenario” expects a total EBITDA of $1.28 billion and $1.9 billion for 2019 and 2021, respectively. It assumes no further acquisitions,
no cross-selling, and 200bps of EBITDA margin expansion on a consolidated basis
Based on DEF’s core business quality and meaningful
growth opportunities, we believe DEF should trade at
least in line with its peers (weighted by DEF’s EBITDA
contribution from 3PL, LTL and TL)
Current market valuation, implies
zero margin improvements, which
we believe is overly pessimistic
Our bear case assumes a 12% discount
in multiples to this pessimistic zero
margin improvement scenario
FCFE Yield%
6.1%
4.5%
8.3%
5.0%
12.1%
7.1%
13. Key Risks
13
Uber of Trucking
› Startups aim to leverage drivers´ smartphones to quickly connect them with nearby companies looking
to ship goods. If successful, it would disintermediate third-party brokers (DEF).
› Mitigant: DEF spent $118 million and $440 million in technology in 2017 and 2018E, respectively. VAR
confirms DEF´s superior IT capabilities. “The CIO, is a terribly talented guy. He is literality a genius IQ”
– Former DEF employee.
› “We are likely to be the disrupter rather than the disrupted” – CEO
Leverage and Economic Cycle
› DEF is running at 6.0x net debt to EBITDA 2018E and just added cyclicality to its results with
Company 2´s acquisition when the economic outlook is deteriorating.
› Mitigant: Asset-light business accounts for 78% of free cash flow. Highly cash generative business
allows deleverage to 3x in two years. Debt has no covenants.
› In the case of a recession, margin in brokerage and contract logistics increases (2013)and capex at
the LTL business can be cut to zero (2013)
Driver Shortage
› A shortage in available drivers could limit DEF Freight´s to fully utilize the company´s fleet and
pressure margins through wage increases.
› Mitigant: Real drivers problem is in the truckload business, not in LTL. TL driver turnover is 93%
versus 15% in LTL. Annual driver compensation in the LTL industry is $62,000 versus $47,000 in TL*.
In addition, Company´s LTL drivers turnover is 7.7%, way below industry average (15%)
Listed here are a few
risk factors associated
with the business. You
can alter them as per
your requirements
17. Clustered Bar
90
30
55
70
60
80
60
40
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100
2017
2018
2019
2020
Sales
FinancialYear
Product 01
This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes
automatically based on data. Just left click on it
and select “Edit Data”.
Product 02
This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes
automatically based on data. Just left click on it
and select “Edit Data”.
17
18. Clustered Column
18
Product 01
This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes
automatically based on data. Just left click on it
and select “Edit Data”.
Product 02
This graph/chart is linked to excel, and changes
automatically based on data. Just left click on it
and select “Edit Data”.
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
2017 2018 2019 2020
Sales
Financial Year
19. Our Mission
19
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Vision
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Mission
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Goal
20. Our Team
20
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Designation
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Designation
Name Here Name Here
Designation
Name Here
21. About Us
21
Target Audiences
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Value Clients
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Preferred by Many
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22. Maximum
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Financial
22
$25
$84
$65
Minimum
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Medium
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23. 2323
Address
# street number, city, state
Email Address
emailaddress123@gmail.Com
Contact Number
0123456789
Thank You