3. 1.1 Ethiopian Health care system
• Pluralistic: traditional and modern
– WHO estimate: TM 70 - 80%
• The evaluation of modern health services could be divided into
five periods.
– Laying the Ground for Modern Medicine, Up to 1936
– The Italian interlude (1936-41)
– The hospital/clinic based (reconstruction) period (1941-
1953)
– The Basic Health Service period (1953-1974)
– The Primary Health Care period (1974-1991)
– The Sector Wide approach period (1991-2015) /HSDP
period.
– The Health sector transformation (1916-2020)
17/12/2022
4. 1.2.1 Modern Medicine in Ethiopia
• Introduced in 16th century in fragmented way: Emperor
Libenedengel
• Further progress in the introduction and development- reign of
Emperor Menilek (1889 – 1913)
• The first Government sponsored health facilities were established in
Harar by Ras Mekonnen and Menelik II Hospital in Addis Ababa in
1909
• The Government formally assumed responsibility for the provision
of health services with the establishment of the Health Department
within the Ministry Interior in 1908.
• Since then The Health Care System has been in constant change
with socioeconomic and political changes.
• 1935- health manpower training started by enrolling students for
auxiliary medical training
• Italian invasion – interrupt the activity
17/12/2022
5. • Modern medical care model (MMC) (The
Reconstruction phase (1941-1953)
– Earlier period of introduction of health services
• Urban centered and Hospital based
• Services were inaccessible to majority of rural population due to
– geographical, economical and cultural barrier
• It was mechanistic approach and not holistic
– The health service coverage was estimated to be 25%.
– Little attention was given to preventive health care in spite
of the establishment of the Ministry of Public Health in
1947.
17/12/2022
6. Approach of Health care services
• Basic Health Service Approach (BHSA) (1953-1974)
• In 1952, the government officially proclaimed the basic health care policy.
– Dominant theme in 50’s and 60’s
– Criticism against mechanistic approach
– Success stories utilizing large number of medical auxiliaries in China to
provide service nearer to large population
– Reframed and shifted utilization of medical auxiliary from medical facility to
health center and health institution
– Principle ” taking services where people live” through home visits, outreaches,
prison heath serves by medical auxiliaries
17/12/2022
7. Approach of Health…..…….cont’d
• The era of BHSA in Ethiopia
– One of the success stories registered in health sector development
• The organization and development of health services at that time can be
considered as four tiered system:
– Health station (with health assistant at grass root level)
– Health center at Awraja level (health center team)
– Regional referral Hospital (Tekelaygizat level)
– Central referral hospital
17/12/2022
8. Approach of Health…..…….cont’d
• Problem with BHSA
– Constrained with respect to facility and manpower
– Socio-cultural factor prevent population from using available sources
– No mechanism for community participation that can ensure
sustainability and culturally acceptable care
• Primary health care (PHC) approach (1974-1991)
– WHO and UNICEF re-examined their practice and this led to Alma-Ata
declaration in 1978
17/12/2022
9. Approach of Health…..…….cont’d
• Primary Health Care defined as
– Essential health care based on practical, scientifically
sound and socially acceptable methods and technology
made universally accessible to individuals and families in
the community through their full participation and at a cost
that the community and the country can afford to maintain
at every stage of their development in the spirit of self-
reliance and self-determination”
17/12/2022
10. Approach of Health…..…….cont’d
• The five principles usually associated with the PHC strategy are:
• Universal accessibility and coverage
– Essential health services to all people
• Community and individual involvement and self reliance
– Individuals and communities have the right and responsibility to
be active partners in making decisions about their health care
and the health of their communities.
17/12/2022
11. Approach of Health…..…….cont’d
• Appropriate technology and cost effectiveness
– This includes methods of care, service delivery, procedures and
equipment that are socially acceptable and affordable.
• Intersectoral action for health
– Commitment from all sectors (government, community and
health)
• Health promotion
– Through the provision of affordable health services and
community health education.
17/12/2022
12. Approach of Health…..…….cont’d
• Component/element of PHC
– Immunization
– Food supply and proper nutrition
– Water and sanitation
– Appropriate treatment of common disease and injuries
– Maternal child birth care including family planning
– Providing essential drugs
– Mental health
17/12/2022
13. Approach of Health…..…….cont’d
– Education concerning the prevailing health problems and methods of
preventing and controlling them
– Provision and control of locally endemic
– Dental health
– Traditional medicine
– Control of HIV/AIDS and STIs
– Occupational health
– As a member of WHO, Ethiopia signed the Almata charter
– WHO internationally evaluated PHC strategy (1984 – 1985)
17/12/2022
14. Approach of Health…..…….cont’d
• Problems observed:
– Very limited intersectoral collaboration
– Lack of community involvement due to lack of remuneration of
trained CHWs; 85% were found to be non functional
• Achievement:
– Expansion of health services
– Control of iodine deficiency disorder
– Training in health education
17/12/2022
15. The HSDP period (1993-2015)
• The transitional government issued a Health Policy in 1993.
• The policy emphasizes equitable access of all people to
decentralized preventive and promotive health oriented integrated
PHC.
• To achieve the objectives of the policy, the government identified
and have been implementing the following strategies:
17/12/2022
16. Strategies
• Strengthening preventive and promotive health services
• Sustaining the existing essential curative services and encouraging
rehabilitative services within the family and the private sectors
• Provision of basic drugs at all health care units and encourage
private sector participation in the procurement, distribution and
production of drugs and medical supplies
• Revitalizing the health information, documentation and
processing system
17/12/2022
17. • Decentralizing and democratizing the management of the health
care delivery system
• Human resources development emphasizing front-line and mid-level
health workers
• Affordable and realistic research and development focusing on
priority health problems and
• Creating an enabling environment for community and private
participation in health care financing as well as for efficient and
effective utilization of the available limited resources.
17/12/2022
18. Health Sector Development Program I (HSDP I) (1997/98–
2001/02)
• Prioritized disease prevention and decentralizing
health services delivery.
• HSDP I introduced a four tier system for health
service delivery.
– Primary health care unit (PHCU) (one HC and 5 HP health
posts) ~ 25,000 people
– District hospital ~ 250,000
– Zonal hospital ~ 1,000,000
– Specialized referral hospital.
17/12/2022
19. • In relation to Pharmaceutical sector, during HSDP I:
– The Proclamation to the Drug Administration and
Control Authority (DACA) have been issued &
completed;
– The National Drug List (NDL) of Ethiopia has been
updated, printed, and was issued in July 2001; and
– A federal Essential Drugs List has been prepared,
listing priority drugs which should be available at all
times, and structured by level of the health system.
– Improvement in drug availability has been observed in
the public and private sectors, partly through licensing
of a large number of drug outlets of various levels to
sell drugs (estimated at 311 pharmacies, 249 drug
shops and 1917 rural drug vendors), and the
establishment of several domestic manufacturers of
drugs and medical supplies within the country.
– There has been a significant increase in the supply of
drug and medical supplies to the public center
manifested by the marked increase in the drug budget
from 20 million to 245 million birr.
17/12/2022
20. HSDP II (2002/03–2004/05)
• Incorporates new initiatives like
– the introduction of the Health Services Extension Programme (HSEP)
– the accelerated Expansion of PHC
– the development of the Essential Health Services Package (EHSP)
– the elaboration of a Child Survival Strategy
– the efforts to reach the Millennium Development Goals,
– the new Plan for Accelerated and Sustained Development to End Poverty (PASDEP Oct
2005)
– to seek improved alignment of donors and donor efforts of harmonization
– establishment of Special Pharmacies (SP) has resulted in better drug availability and
increased ability to cover recurrent costs.
• Special and Budget Pharmacies were operating separately.
17/12/2022
21. HSDP III (2005/06–2009/10)
• It stresses the need to increase national health spending,
• Recognized the strategic role of NGOs as partners in achieving universal
primary healthcare coverage
• National Hygiene and Sanitation Strategy and National Protocol for Hygiene
have been developed
• Accelerated Expansion of Primary Health Service Coverage
• Development and implementation of the National Nutrition Strategy and
programme
• In order to introduce efficiency in the supply chain of pharmaceuticals and
medical supplies management system, PHARMID has been transformed
into Pharmaceutical Fund and Supply Agency (PFSA) with the several
measures taken to strengthen the capacity of the new agency
17/12/2022
22. HSDP IV (2010/11 – 2014/15)
• Scaling up of Urban and Pastoralist HEP.
• Maintaining coverage and improving the quality of HEP in rural
areas.
• HSDP IV will focus on a comprehensive and continuous quality
monitoring mechanism
• Enhancing the commitment of leadership at all levels of the system.
• Building implementation capacity.
• Scaling up of best practices.
17/12/2022
23. HSTP (2015/16 – 2019/20)
• HSTP is the first phase of the 20-year health sector strategy
called ‘Envisioning Ethiopia’s Path to Universal Health Care
through strengthening of Primary Health Care’.
• HSTP has three key features: quality and equity; universal
health coverage and transformation.
• Pillars of HSTP
– 1. Excellence in health service delivery
– 2. Excellence in quality improvement and assurance
– 3. Excellence in leadership and governance
– 4. Excellence in health system capacity
17/12/2022
24. HSTP (2015/16 – 2019/20)
• Improve Supply Chain and Logistic Management is
• Performance measures:
– Increase availability of essential drugs for primary, secondary and
tertiary healthcare to 100%
– Reduce wastage rate to less than 2%
– Increase proportion of essential drugs procured from local
manufacturers from 25% to 60%
– Reduce procurement lead-time from 240 days to 120 days
17/12/2022
25. Strategic Initiatives HSTP-Pharmaceutical
• 1. Enhance efficiency in selection, quantification and procurement of
essential medicines
• 2. Optimize warehouse, inventory, fleet and distribution management
systems
• 3. Scale-up integrated information management system for
pharmaceutical supply and services
• 4. Scale-up auditable pharmaceutical transaction and services to all
health facilities
• 5. Scale-up community pharmacies
• 6. Implement innovative strategies to shape the market in order to
ensure affordability of essential drugs
• 7. Strengthen supply chain modeling to analyze needs for management
and scale-up of commodities
• 8. Undertake measures to reduce drug wastage and integrated
pharmaceutical waste
• management
• 9. Promote rational drug use
• 10. Improve access to medicines through quality local production –
implement the GMP (good manufacturing practice) Roadmap
17/12/2022
26. Approach of Health…..…….cont’d
• Current health care delivery system : a three-tier
• First level of a Woreda/District health system
– Comprising a primary hospital
• population coverage of 60,000-100,000 people),
– Health centers (1/15,000-25,000 population)
– Satellite Health Posts (1/3,000-5,000 population)
• Connected to each other by a referral system
17/12/2022
27. Approach of Health…..…….cont’d
– NB! Primary Hospital, Health center and health posts
form a Primary health care unit (PHCU) with each health
center having five satellite health posts.
• Second level - General Hospital
– Population coverage of 1-1.5 million people
• Third level - a Specialized Hospital
– Population of 3.5-5 million
17/12/2022
29. Millennium Development Goals
• In September 2000, leaders of 189 countries gathered at
the United Nations headquarters and signed the historic
Millennium Declaration, in which they committed to
achieving a set of eight measurable goals that
range from halving extreme poverty and hunger to
promoting gender equality and reducing child mortality,
by the target date of 2015.
17/12/2022
31. The Global Consultation of
Sustainable Development Goals
• In July 2014, the UN General Assembly Open
Working Group (OWG) proposed a document
containing 17 goals to be put forward for the
General Assembly’s approval in September 2015.
This document set the ground for the new SDGs
and the global development agenda spanning
from 2015-2030.
17/12/2022
34. 1.1 What is management?
• A set of activities directed at the efficient and effective
utilization of resources in the pursuit of one or more goals.
• Working with human, financial, and physical resources to
achieve organizational objectives by performing the planning,
organizing, directing and controlling functions.
• A problem solving process of the effectively achieving
organizational objectives through the efficient use of scarce
resources.
17/12/2022
35. • management is not a process, which is simply a method of
doing something.
• Managers are simply people who perform management
activities.
• While people whom we think of as “the boss” and those with
administrative appointments within an organization certainly
are managers, the fact is that anyone who has a task to
accomplish or a goal to achieve is a manager as well
17/12/2022
36. • Leadership
– It is a distinctly different skill from management.
– Leadership involves the ability to inspire or direct
others.
– It is desirable that all managers also have
leadership skills, they do not necessarily go hand
in hand
17/12/2022
38. Management……..cont’d
• The Management Process
– There are three dimensions of management:
1. Activities that managers perform
2. Resources that managers need
3. Levels at which managers make decisions
– Every action taken by a manager involves at
least one aspect of each of the three
dimensions.
17/12/2022
40. Classical Management Activities
• Planning
– Central functions of management
– Determines the organizational direction
– It is a rational systematic way of making
decision today that will affect the future.
– is predetermining a course of action based on
one’s goals and objectives.
17/12/2022
41. Classical Management……..cont’d
– Important for purpose of scarce resources
– Effective planning incorporates the effects of both external
and internal factors.
– E.g. The chief pharmacist at a community pharmacy develop
plans which drug products he wishes to carry
• Organizing
– Requires formal structures of authority and direction
and flow of such authority.
17/12/2022
42. Classical Management……..cont’d
• Organizing : concerned with
– Identifying tasks that must be performed
– Assigning tasks to personnel
– Defining authority & responsibility of assigned personnel
– Delegating such authority to employees
– Establishing a relationship b/n authority & responsibility
17/12/2022
43. Classical Management……..cont’d
– E.g. Once a pharmacist has decided which drug products
he should offer, he needs to ask himself
• what resources he needs to provide them
• Who is responsible for procurement
• how he will go about obtaining these resources
• and then determine when he will need to obtain.
• Leading or directing
– bringing about purposeful action toward some desired
outcome.
17/12/2022
44. Classical Management……..cont’d
• Control or evaluation
– Involves reviewing the progress that has been made
toward the objectives that were set out in the plan.
– Determining what actually happened and why it
happened.
– E.g. Pharmacists can ask themselves if the goods and
services they offered met their goals (e.g. Did the goods
and services result in high quality patient care or
improved clinical outcomes?)
17/12/2022
46. Management……..cont’d
• Resources that are Managed
– Managers, organizations and individuals must use
resources to achieve their goals and objectives.
– Resources are scarce
• Money, People, Time
• Material (E.g. drug products, equipment, and supplies)
• Information
17/12/2022
47. Management……..cont’d
• Levels of Management
– Managers perform management activities at a number of level
• Individual management
– Self-management
– occur much more frequently at lower levels.
• Interpersonal management
– between the manager and one other person
– E.g. a pharmacist counselling a patient about a medication
17/12/2022
48. Management……..cont’d
• Organizational management
– Occurs less frequently
– Involves actions that affect groups of people
– E.g. deciding where to go for lunch
– E.g. when a pharmacist needs to develop a policy
or make a decision that may affect many people
at the pharmacy
17/12/2022
49. What makes successful manager?
• Politics, economy, human resources and
infrastructure development contribute for success
or failures.
• But success lies
– Managerial task
– Managerial role
– Managerial skill
– Qualities of the manger
17/12/2022
50. Managerial tasks
• Crisis management
– e.g outbreak of meningitis and its management
• Routine administration
– e.g receiving report, managing staff, making decision
• Long term program development
– It is little time consuming
– Failure to plan and implement needed change will increase
the number of problems, makes routine administration less
effective
17/12/2022
51. Managerial role
• Role
– is a set of expectation place on any one in a position of
responsibility by the people around that person
• Role of manager
• Leader
– Directing
– motivating staff
– maintaining liaison with other organization
17/12/2022
52. Managerial role
• Communicator
– maintaining networks of formal or informal)
– Disseminating information
– Serving as spokes person
• Decision maker
– Resource allocation
– Program change and development
– Problem solving
– Negotiating
17/12/2022
53. Managerial skill
• Technical skill
– e.g. pharmacy, other skill related to specific jobs
• Conceptual and analytical skill
– ability to synthesize information
– understand the prevailing circumstance
– use planning program to move forward
• Decision making skill
– Identify and select option using analytical and technical skill
– Decide
17/12/2022
54. Managerial skill
• People skill
– Understanding, motivating and directing people
– Building team and improving effectiveness
• Financial skill
– Budgeting
– Assessing value for money in people and projects
• Negotiating
– Adhering to budget
– Coping with constraint
• Communication and research skill
– Listening , reading, writing, running meeting and making public
presentation
• Computer skill
– Proficiency in different software
17/12/2022
55. Qualities of manger
• Provide clear direction
• Encourage open communication
• Coaches and support people
• Recognize staff for good performance
• Follow up on important issues and provide feedback
• Select the right of people for specific assignment
• Understand the financial implication of decision
• Encourage creativity and new ideas
• Give staff clear cut decision when they are needed
• Consistently demonstrate a high level of integrity
17/12/2022
56. 2. Concepts of Essential Drugs
And National Drug Policy
17/12/2022
57. 2.1 Concept of Essential medicines/ Drugs
• Health is a fundamental human right.
• Access to health care includes access to essential
drugs.
• What is Access?
– Physical availability
• the type and quantity of product or service needed and
provided
– Affordability
• users ability to pay for the products/services
– Geographical accessibility
• the location of the product/service and eventual user
– Acceptability (satisfaction)
• Users’ attitudes and expectation about products and services
and the actual characteristics of products and services
17/12/2022
58. Concept of Essential …….cont’d
• Essential medicines
– are medicines that satisfy the priority health
care needs of the population
– should be available at all times, in adequate
amounts in appropriate dosage forms and at a
price the individual and the community can
afford”
17/12/2022
59. Concept of Essential …….cont’d
• Essential drugs concept
– “a limited number of carefully selected drugs based on
agreed clinical guidelines leads to more rational
prescribing, to a better supply of drugs and to lower costs”.
– It is a global concept that can be applied in any country, in
the private and public sectors and at different levels of the
health care system.
17/12/2022
60. The Essential Medicines Target
S S
All the drugs
in the world Registered medicines
National list of
essential medicines
Levels of use
Supplementary
specialist
medicines
CHW
dispensary
Health center
Hospital
Referral hospital
Private sector
17/12/2022
61. 2.2 The formulary process
• The formulary process
– consists of preparing, using and updating a
• Formulary list or essential medicines list (EML)
• Formulary manual
• Standard treatment guidelines (STGs).
17/12/2022
62. The formulary list or Essential medicines list
• The formulary list/ essential medicines
– list of pharmaceutical products approved for use in
specific health care setting
• E.g National formulary list, provincial formulary list
• Hospital list
– Alphabetically and therapeutically arranged lists
of drugs
17/12/2022
63. Formulary/essential medicines list
• Selection criteria
– Pattern of prevalent disease
– Treatment facilities
– Training and experience of available personnel
– Financial resources
– Genetic, demographic and environmental factor
– Medicines which have sound, adequate data on
efficacy and safety (clinical studies, evidence from
general setting)
– Adequate quality, including bioavailability, stability
under anticipated conditions of storage and use
17/12/2022
64. Formulary/essential medicines list
– Cost: Consider cost of the total treatment rather than the unit
cost of the medicine
• Use cost-effectiveness analysis result
– Other factors: PK properties, availability of facilities for
storage or manufacturers.
– Essential medicines formulated as single compounds.
– But fixed-ratio combination products are acceptable only
when
• The dosage of each ingredient meets the requirements of a
defined population
• The combination has a proven advantage over single
compounds
• Administered separately in therapeutic effect, safety or
compliance.
17/12/2022
65. How STGs and EMLs lead to better prevention
and care
17/12/2022
66. Formulary manual
• Formulary manual
– Is the summary information on medicines in the
formulary list together in a manual.
– Is drug centered
– Handy reference that contains selected information relevant
to prescriber, dispenser, nurse or other health worker
• Drug information included in a comprehensive formulary
• Introductory information
– Acknowledgment, List of approved abbreviation
– Introduction ( development of manual, intended user)
– Formulary policies and procedures
17/12/2022
67. Formulary manual
• Basic information about each medicine
– Generic name
– Dosage and strengths
– Indications, CI and precautions
– Side-effects
– Dosage schedule
– Instructions and warnings
– Drug, food, laboratory interactions
• Supplementary information for medicines
– Price
– Regulatory category
– Storage guidelines
– Patient counseling information
– Labeling information
– Brand names and synonyms
17/12/2022
68. Formulary manual
• Prescribing and dispensing guidelines
– Rational prescribing techniques
– Principles of prescription writing
– Guidelines for quantities to be dispensed
– Controlled drug requirements
– Adverse drug reaction reporting requirements
– Dispensing guidelines
– List of precautionary labels
– Common drug interaction tables
17/12/2022
69. Advantages of essential medicines list
• Prescribing
– Training is more focused and simpler
– More experience with fewer medicines
– Non-availability of irrational treatment
– Reduction of antimicrobial resistance
– Focused drug information
– Better recognition of ADR
17/12/2022
70. Advantages of essential medicines
list
• Supply
– Easier procurement, storage and distribution
– Lower stocks
– Better quality assurance
• Cost
– Lower prices, more competition
• Patient use
– Focused education efforts
– Reduced confusion and increased adherence to treatment
– Improved medicine availability
17/12/2022
71. Standard Treatment Guidelines
• STG:
– Is also called Treatment Protocol or Clinical Guideline
– Systematically developed statements that help practitioner
or prescriber in deciding on appropriate treatments for
specific clinical conditions.
– It reflect consensus on the optimal treatment option
within health facility or health system
• It is disease centered
– common disease and complaints, treatment alternatives
– STG exist for various level of health care
• E.g Hospital, health center, region, nation
17/12/2022
72. Standard Treatment Guidelines
• Information on STG
– Diagnostic criteria
– Treatment of first choice
– Cost of treatment
– Important CI, SE
– Important drug information, warnings and
precautions
– Referral criteria
– index
17/12/2022
73. Standard Treatment Guidelines
• For health officials
– Identify cost effective treatments for common health
problems
– Provides a bases for assessing and comparing quality of
care
– Identifies most effective therapy in terms of quality
– It helps to combats antimicrobial resistance
– Provides information for practitioner to give to patients
concerning the institutions standards of care
– Is a vehicle for integrating special programs
• control of diarrheal disease, acute respiratory tract infection, TB,
Malaria at the point of primary health care provider
17/12/2022
74. Potential benefits of STG
• For supply management staff
– Identifies which medicines should be available for the
most commonly treated problem
– Facilitates pre packaging of course of therapy quantities of
commonly prescribed items
– Makes medicine demand more predictable, so
forecasting is more reliable
17/12/2022
75. Potential benefits of STG
• For health care providers
– Provides expert consensus on most effective,
economical treatment for specific setting
– Gives provider the opportunity to concentrate on
correct diagnosis
– Sets a quality of care standard
– Provide a basis for monitoring and supervision
17/12/2022
76. Potential benefits of STG
• For patients
– Encourage adherence to treatment through
consistency among prescriber at all location within
the health care system
– Ensures most cost effective treatment are provided
– Improves availability of medicines
– improves treatment and outcomes
17/12/2022
77. Standard Treatment Guidelines
• The problems associated with STGs include:
– a development process
• Difficult, time-consuming,
• Requires human and financial resources
– the need to update regularly to avoid STGs becoming
obsolete
– the danger of inaccurate or incomplete guidelines
• providing wrong information to prescribers
17/12/2022
78. What is a national drug policy?
• A political commitment to a goal and a guide for
action.
– It expresses and prioritizes the medium- to long-term goals set
by the government for the pharmaceutical sector, and identifies
the main strategies for attaining them.
– It provides a framework within which the activities of the
pharmaceutical sector can be coordinated.
– It covers both the public and the private sectors, and involves
all the main actors in the pharmaceutical field.
17/12/2022
79. Why is a national drug policy needed?
• To present a formal record of values, aspirations, aims, decisions
and medium- to long-term government commitments;
• To define the national goals and objectives for the pharmaceutical
sector, and set priorities;
• To identify the strategies needed to meet those objectives, and
identify the various actors responsible for implementing the main
components of the policy;
• To create a forum for national discussions on these issues.
17/12/2022
80. Objectives of a National Drug policy
• The general health related objectives
• To ensure:
– Access: equitable availability and affordability of essential
drugs
– Quality: the quality, safety and efficacy of all medicines
– Rational use: the promotion of therapeutically sound and
cost-effective use of drugs by health professionals and
consumers.
17/12/2022
81. National Drug policy
• Other Goals of NDP
– Economic related goals
• To reduce foreign exchange for pharmaceutical import
• To provide jobs (dispensing, pre-packaging, production of
pharmaceuticals)
– National development goal
• Develop national pharmaceutical production
• To take a stand on intellectual property rights
17/12/2022
82. National Drug policy
• The specific goals and objectives of a NDP may vary from
country to country depending on
– Structure of health care system
– Capacity of drug regulating authority
– Pharmaceutical distribution system
– The level of funding of pharmaceuticals
– The country situation
– The national health policy
– Political priorities set by the government
17/12/2022
83. Example: Objectives of Ethiopian NDP
• To meet the country’s demand for essential drugs and to systematize
its supply, distribution and use.
• To create conducive situations to make the prices of drugs compatible with
the people’s purchasing power.
• To ensure the safety, efficacy and quality of drugs.
• To develop a domestic drug manufacturing capacity and gradual
supply to the export market.
• To expand the training of manpower and drugs research and
development.
• To devise ways and means for the utilization of traditional drugs in the
regular health services after ensuring their safety and efficacy.
17/12/2022
85. Key components of ..……..cont’d
• Selection of essential drugs
– Adoption of the essential drugs concept
– Selection criteria
• Sound and adequate evidence, cost
effectiveness)
– Procedures to define and update the national list(s) of
essential drugs;
– Selection mechanisms for traditional and herbal
medicines.
17/12/2022
86. Key components of ..……..cont’d
• Affordability
– For all drugs
• Reduction of drug taxes, tariffs and distribution margins;
pricing policy;
– For multi-source products:
• Promotion of competition
• generic policies, generic substitution and good procurement
practices;
– For single-source products:
• Price negotiations
• Therapeutic substitution
• TRIPS-compliant measures such as compulsory licensing,
“early workings” of patented drugs for generic manufacturers
and parallel imports.
17/12/2022
87. Key components of ..……..cont’d
• Drug financing
– commitment to measures to improve efficiency and
reduce waste
– increased government funding for priority diseases, and
the poor and disadvantaged
– promotion of drug reimbursement as part of public
and private health insurance schemes
– use and scope of user charges as a (temporary) drug
financing option
– use of and limits of development loans for drug financing
– guidelines for drug donations
17/12/2022
88. Key components of ..……..cont’d
• Supply systems
– public–private mix in drug supply and
distribution systems;
– commitment to good pharmaceutical
procurement practices in the public sector
– publication of price information on raw
materials and finished products
– drug supply systems in acute emergencies
– inventory control, and prevention of theft and
waste
– disposal of unwanted or expired drugs
17/12/2022
89. Key components of ..……..cont’d
• Legislative and Regulatory framework
– government commitment to drug regulation,
including the need to ensure a sound legal basis
and adequate human and financial resources;
– independence and transparency of the drug
regulatory agency; relations with the ministry of
health (MoH)
– Functioning drug regulatory authority
– stepwise approach to drug evaluation and
registration
17/12/2022
90. Key components of ..……..cont’d
– Pharmaceutical quality assurance including
inspection and enforcement
– commitment to GMP, inspection and law
enforcement
– access to drug control facilities
– commitment to regulation of drug promotion
– regulation of traditional and herbal medicines
– need and potential for systems of ADR
monitoring
– international exchange of information.
17/12/2022
91. Key components of ..……..cont’d
• Rational use
– development of evidence-based clinical guidelines,
as the basis for training, prescribing, drug utilization
review, drug supply and drug reimbursement;
– establishment and support of drugs and therapeutics
committees (DTC);
– promotion of the concepts of essential drugs, rational
drug use and generic prescribing in basic and in-service
training of health professionals
– the need and potential for training informal drug sellers;
– continuing education of health care providers
– independent, unbiased drug information
17/12/2022
92. Key components of ..……..cont’d
– consumer education, and ways to deliver it;
– financial incentives to promote rational drug use;
– regulatory and managerial strategies to promote
rational drug use.
• Research
– operational research in drug access, quality and
rational use;
– Pharmaceutical development and clinical research
17/12/2022
93. Key components of ..……..cont’d
• Human resources (HR) development
– government responsibility for planning and
overseeing the development and training of the
HR needed for the pharmaceutical sector;
– define minimum education and training
requirements for each category of staff;
– career planning and team building in government
service;
– the need for external assistance (national and
international).
17/12/2022
94. Key components of ..……..cont’d
• Monitoring and evaluation
– explicit government commitment to the
principles of monitoring and evaluation;
– monitoring of the pharmaceutical sector
through regular indicator-based surveys;
– independent external evaluation of the
impact of the NDP on all sectors of the
community and the economy.
17/12/2022
95. Strategic pathway for health
commodity security (SPARCH)
17/12/2022
• Health commodity security exists when every
person is able to choose, obtain, and use
quality health products whenever s/he needs
them.
103. Implementing a NDP/NMP
• A policy without implementation is worthless
• NDP needs
– implementation plan or “master plan”
– a detailed strategy and
– specific action plans
• Priorities for implementation
– Priorities should be
• based on the severity of the problems
• on the potential for success in achieving the objective
• making an impact with available resources.
• Master plan and work plans
– Implementation plan or master plan cover a 3–5-year period.
17/12/2022
104. Implementing a NDP/NMP
– The master plan should be broken down into
• annual action plans and work plans
• specify in detail who is responsible,
• listing the major tasks,
• describing the target output, the detailed time frame and the exact
budget
• Responsibilities in implementation
– the Ministry of Health or a separate unit within the ministry
should oversee and coordinate all activities, and monitor the
extent of implementation and the achievement of targets.
17/12/2022
105. Implementing a NDP/NMP
• Creating a national consultative forum
– To oversee policy implementation.
– To maintain countrywide support for the policy
– To ensure that the major stakeholders remain informed and involved.
• Financial resources
– Actively seeking funds and be able to secure regular funding from the
government, international and local donors.
– there should be no conflict of interest in accepting donor contributions
17/12/2022
108. Drug Supply Management cycle
• Management support → core
– Organization → functional orgn’l structure
– Financing and sustainability → adequate
– Information management → reliable
– HR management → motivated staff
• The entire framework relies on policies, laws and
regulation
17/12/2022
109. Drug Supply Management cycle
• NDP/NMP provides a sound foundation for managing
pharmaceutical supply
• Wise medicine selection underlies all other improvements
• Effective management and good governance save money and
improve performance
• Rational medicine use requires more than just dissemination of
information's
• Systematic assessment and monitoring are essential
17/12/2022
111. The Logistics cycle
• What Is Logistics?
• “Supply chain management encompasses the planning and
management of all activities involved in sourcing and
procurement…and all logistics management activities.
Importantly, it also includes coordination and collaboration with
channel partners, which can be suppliers, intermediaries, third party
service providers, and customers.
• In essence, supply chain management integrates supply and demand
management within and across companies.”
17/12/2022
112. The Logistics cycle
• Logistics management as—
– part of supply chain management that plans,
implements, and controls the efficient, effective
forward and reverses flow and storage of goods,
services and related information between the point
of origin and the point of consumption in order to
meet customers’ requirement…
17/12/2022
114. Introduction…..cont’d
• Different product
• Different supply chain
• Every product has story
• Multiple supply chain
– Rare to find a product
created, manufactured, and
consumed at the same time
and place
• Perishability
– Banana vs. pumps
• Source
– Single source
– Multiple source
• Customer
– Consumer e.g. women for
shoes
– B2C e.g. banana
– Manufacturer
– Construction company
• Similarity in decision making
– How much inventory
– How do I forecast demand
– Where to stock inventory
– How do I move product from
source to final destination
• Difference
– Value
– Outcome
17/12/2022
115. • Supply chain
– is a network of interconnected organizations or
organizational entities developed with the goal of getting
the right product to the right place at the right time
– Two or more parties linked by a flow of resources –
typically material, information, and money – that ultimately
fulfill a customer request
– SCM term coined 1980
– Before 1980, logistics, operations management terms
were used
17/12/2022
121. Process View of Supply Chains
• Four Primary Cycles
– Customer Order Cycle
– Replenishment cycle
– Manufacturing Cycle
– Procurement Cycle
• Cycles Occur Between
Stages
– Interactions differ at each
stage
• Not every SC will have all
4 Cycles
17/12/2022
125. Supply chain management
• encompasses the planning and management of all
activities involved in sourcing and procurement,
conversion, and all logistics management activities.
• Importantly, it also includes coordination and
collaboration with channel partners, which can be suppliers,
intermediaries, third party service providers, and customers.
• In essence, supply chain management integrates supply and
demand management within and across companies.
17/12/2022
126. • Logistics management
– is that part of supply chain management that plans, implements,
and controls the efficient, effective forward and reverse flow and
storage of goods, services and related information between the point
of origin and the point of consumption in order to meet customers‘
requirements.
17/12/2022
127. • The pharmaceutical supply chain
– is the management of product supply from
raw material sourcing to active ingredient
manufacturing through formulation,
packaging and distribution to the patient.
– It is the means through which medicines are
delivered to patients.
17/12/2022
128. Pharmaceutical SCM in Ethiopia
17/12/2022
International/Local
Source
PUBLIC
(PFSA Central)
PFSA Hub
Hospitals Health Centers
Health Posts
CLIENTS
Wholesalers
PRIVATE IMPORTERS
Retailers
(Pharmacy
, drug store
rural drug vendor)
Hospitals,
Clinics
129. The Logistics cycle
• Why Logistics Matters
• Well functioning supply chain benefit public
health programs
– increasing program impact
• No product? No program!
– enhancing quality of care
– improving cost effectiveness and efficiency.
17/12/2022
131. The Logistics cycle
The PURPOSE of a logistics system is to get the
RIGHT QUANTITIES of the
RIGHT GOODS to the
RIGHT PLACES at the
RIGHT TIME in the
RIGHT CONDITION at the
RIGHT COST.
17/12/2022
133. Purpose of Product Selection or Advantages of
limited list of Essential Medicines
• Supply
– Make the supply chain more manageable
• Easier procurement, storage and distribution
– Lower stocks
– Better quality assurance
• Prescribing
– Training is more focused and therefore simpler
– More experience with fewer medicines
– Non availability of irrational treatment
– Reduction of antimicrobial resistance
– Focused drug information
– Better recognition of ADR
17/12/2022
134. Purpose of Product Selection or Advantages of
limited list of Essential Medicines
• Cost
– Lower prices, more competition
• Patient use
– Focused education efforts
– Reduced confusion and increased adherence to
treatment
– Improved medicine availability
17/12/2022
135. Selection of Essential Medicines
• Selection criteria
– The national EML
– Whether the product is registered in the country by the
pharmaceutical regulatory authority
– National STGs
– Pattern of prevalent disease
– Treatment facilities
– Training and experience of available personnel
– Financial resources
– Genetic, demographic and environmental factor
– Safe, efficacious, quality
17/12/2022
136. Selection of Essential Medicines
– When two or more medicines appear to be similar
• their relative efficacy, safety, quality, price and
availability.
• Cost
– Consider the total cost of treatment rather than the
unit cost of the medicine
– The basis of a cost-effectiveness analysis.
• Other factors such as
– PK properties, availability of facilities for storage or
manufacturers.
17/12/2022
138. Definition of procurement
• Procurement refers to obtaining goods,
works, consultancy or other services through
purchasing, hiring or obtaining by any other
contractual means.
• Procurement Management is defined as the
process of acquisition of goods and non-
consulting services and/or obtaining goods and
services through grants, employment of
contractors and consultants
12/17/2022 138
የኢትዮጵያኤሌክትሪክኃይል
ETHIOPIANELECTRICPOWER
139. Definitions for different Types of
Procurement
• Goods mean
– raw material, products and equipment and commodities in solid,
liquid or gaseous form, marketable software and live animals as
well as installation, transport, maintenance or similar obligations
related to the supply of the goods if their value does not exceed
that of the goods themselves.
• Services mean
– any object of procurement other than works, goods and
consultancy services: such as maintenance, security, janitorial,
electricity, telecommunication and water supply services.
12/17/2022 139
140. Cont…
• Works mean
– all work associated with the construction, reconstruction, up
grading, demolition, repair or renovation of a building road, or
structure, as well as services incidental to works, if the value of
those services does not exceed that of the works themselves
and includes build-own-operate, build- own-operate-transfer and
build operate- transfer contracts.
• Consultancy Service means
– a service of an intellectual and advisory nature provided by
consultants using their professional skills to study, design and
organize specific projects, advice clients, conduct training and
transfer knowledge.
12/17/2022 140
141. Procurement Vs Purchasing
• Procurement deals with the sourcing activities,
negotiation and strategic selection of goods and
services that are usually of importance to an
organization.
• Purchasing can usually be described as the
transactional function of procurement for goods
or services.
12/17/2022 141
142. Basic Principles in Procurement
1) Best Value for Money
Economy
Efficiency
Effectiveness
2) Fairness
3) Transparency
4 ) Competitiveness
12/17/2022 142
143. Centralized and Decentralized
Procurement Functions
• What does centralized procurement
function mean?
• What does decentralized procurement
function mean?
12/17/2022 143
144. Centralized vs Decentralized
procurement structure
• Pros of Centralized procurement structure
are
Greater Specialization
Consolidation
Easier coordination and control
Effective planning and research work
• Pros of Decentralized Procurement
Structure are :
Easier coordinate on with operating
departments
Speed of Operation
Effective Use of Local Sources
Plant Autonomy
12/17/2022 144
145. Factors affecting feasibility and
desirability of centralization
• Similarity of Materials Usage
• Plant Department Size
• Geographic Dispersion of plants
12/17/2022 145
146. Good Procurement Practice
• Good Procurement Practice
– Generic name
– Limited to EML list or formulary list
– Bulk purchases
– Formal supplier qualification and monitoring
– Competitive bidding process
17/12/2022
147. Good Procurement Practice
– Commitment to a sole source
– Order quantities based on reliable estimate of actual
need
– Reliable payment and good financial management
– Transparency and written procedures
– Separation of key functions
– Product quality assurance program
– Annual audit with published results
– Regular reporting on performance
17/12/2022
149. procurement process
Program Planning
• It is a collection of organizational resources that is
geared to accomplish a certain major goal or set of
goals.
• It is like an organization , it is a system with
inputs, processes, outputs (tangibles) and
outcomes (impacts on customers)-with ongoing
feedback among the parts.
12/17/2022 149
የኢትዮጵያኤሌክትሪክኃይል
ETHIOPIANELECTRICPOWER
150. Program vs project
• Project is temporary undertaking to create product or
service.
• A project has a defined start and end point and
specific objectives that, when attained, signify
completion.
• A programme, on the other hand, is defined as a
group of related projects managed in a coordinated
way to obtain benefits not available from managing
the projects individually.
• A program is comprised of multiple projects and is
created to obtain broad organizational or technical
objectives.
• There are many differences between a project and a
programme including scope, benefits realization and
time.
12/17/2022 150
151. 2. Procurement planning
• Basic Points
12/17/2022 151
Why
How
When
What
Who
• To determine complete procurement
requirements for project
• Define packages
• Define cost estimates / budget
• Define procurement methods
• Establish lead times
• Determine procurement steps
• Determine deadlines
• Define specifications
• Define quality standards
• Project Manager
• Procurement Unit
• Control Units
153. Cont…
4.Bidding Period
5. Bid Submission and Opening
6. Bid Evaluation Process
7. Contract Administration
12/17/2022 153
154. • Procurement planning is the scheduling of
stages involved in the procurement for
goods, works, and services.
• In this process, the following questions
should be answered:
– What goods and services will be procured?
– Who will procure them?
– How will they be procured ?
– When will they be procured
12/17/2022 154
የኢትዮጵያኤሌክትሪክኃይል
ETHIOPIANELECTRICPOWER
155. Basic Contents of Procurement Planning
a) Description of goods or services
b) The list of packages to be procured
c) Estimated budget
d) Method of procurement
e) Review requirement
f) Critical Stages of the bidding process
12/17/2022 155
156. Specific procurement methods
12/17/2022 156
LIB NCB Shopping Direct Contracting Force Account
Same as ICB
but no
advertisement
Used when:
Contract
value is
small
Number of
suppliers is
limited
Exceptional
reasons exist
Domestic
preference not
applicable
National public
procurement procedures are
used
Advertised in official
gazette or local papers of
nation-wide circulation
National procedures must
meet Bank criteria for
transparency, efficiency,
and economy
Used when:
Goods or works that, by
nature and scope, are
unlikely to attract
foreign competition
Contract value is small
Works are scattered
geographically and over
time
Goods are available
locally at prices lower
than international
market
ICB is not cost-
effective
Quotations are sought from at least
three suppliers. Request for
quotations shall indicate description
and quantity of the goods, as well as
desired delivery time and place.
International: at least three bids
from two countries
National: when goods are ordinarily
available locally at competitive
prices
Offers received by fax and purchase
orders issued contain the terms of the
accepted offer
Used when:
Contract value is low
Off the shelf goods and
standard specification
commodities of low value are
being purchased
Instead of shopping, IAPSO may be
used as procurement agent for motor
vehicles, information technology
equipment, office equipment and
supplies, and audio visual and
communication equipment
No competition; single
source
Used when:
Contract extensions
when original
contracts were
awarded following
Bank procedures
Standardization of
equipment or spare
parts is needed
Proprietary
equipment is needed
Critical items must be
purchased from one
supplier as a
condition of
performance
guarantee
Exceptional
circumstances exist,
such as natural
disasters
Borrower’s own
personnel and
equipment may be the
only practical method
for constructing some
kind of works.
Used when:
Quantities cannot
be defined in
advance
Works are small
and scattered in
remote locations
Risk of work
interruption is
better borne by
the Borrower
Emergencies
require prompt
attention
157. Basic Points
• Process Layout
• Best Value for Money
• Monitoring and Evaluation
• Living Document
• Lead-time
• Backward Planning
• Multidisciplinary
12/17/2022 157
158. Procurement Challenges
• Accurate quantification and forecast data
• Lengthy procurement process
• Delays in funding allocation and release
• Product quality assurance
• Transparency
17/12/2022
159. Factors influencing pharmaceutical
prices and total costs
• Unit price
– Competition among supplier
• number of products and generic version
– Rule of five
• Gov’t policy
– registration, licensing, prescribing, dispensing
• Procurement method
• Reorder frequency and the total cost of
pharmaceutical purchasing
– Total cost = Drug acquisition price + inventory holding
cost + purchase operating cost + shortage cost
17/12/2022
160. Factors influencing pharmaceutical
prices and total costs
– Cost minimized by Reorder frequency
• Interval b/n order (annual, scheduled, perpetual)
• Safety stock target- lead time, consumption pattern,
service level
• Visible and hidden costs
– Total cost= Hidden cost + visible cost
17/12/2022
162. Key terms in health commodity
procurement
• Tender
– The documentation and initiation of a process for soliciting
bids; the specifications for the product/service desired and
opening the contract to the bidding process.
• Bid
– A written offer for a quantity of goods, works, or services,
at a stated price; based on technical specifications and
other terms and conditions.
17/12/2022
163. Procurement methods
• A procurement method is the technique that public
body uses to acquire goods, works and services.
• The method selected depends on a number of factors
including:
– the type of goods or service being procured
– the value of the good or service being procured
– the potential interest of foreign bidders
– the cost of the procurement process itself.
• Public bodies shall use open bidding as the preferred
procedure of procurement except as otherwise
provided in this Proclamation No. 649/2009. -
17/12/2022
164. • Public bodies may use a method other than open bidding
only where conditions for use of such other method
stipulated under this Proclamation are satisfied.
• A procurement methods:
– Open Bidding
• International Competitive Bidding
• National Competitive Bidding
– Two Stage Bidding
– Framework Approach
– Limited Bidding
– Request for Quotation
– Direct Contracting.
17/12/2022
165. Procurement methods
• Open Bidding/tender
– Is a formal procedure by which quotations are invited from any
suppliers on a local or worldwide basis, subjects to the terms and
conditions specified in the tender invitation
– all interested bidders are given adequate notification of contract
requirements
– all eligible bidders are given an equal opportunity to submit a tender
– The Public body must give sufficient public notification of bidding
opportunities to potential bidders to determine their interest and
prepare bid documents.
– the preferred procedure of procurement.
– a method other than open bidding is used only where conditions for use
of such other method stipulated under this proclamation are satisfied.
17/12/2022
166. • International Competitive Bidding (ICB)
– is a procurement procedure where bidding is open to all local or
international legal entities interested in submitting a tender
– shall be used wherever in national open bidding an effective
competition cannot be obtained unless foreign firms are invited to
bid.
– The objective of ICB is to provide all eligible prospective bidders
with timely and adequate notification of purchasers' requirements
and an equal opportunity to bid for the required goods and works.
17/12/2022
167. • National Competitive Bidding (NCB)
– NCB is the procurement procedure where Invitation to
Bid is restricted to the Federal Democratic Republic of
Ethiopia.
– NCB is preferred when
• an effective competition can be obtained where both
national and foreign firms are invited to bid.
• There are circumstances where ICB would not be the most
economic and efficient method of procurement, and where
NCB is deemed more appropriate.
•
17/12/2022
168. Procurement methods
• Limited Bidding /RESTRICTED TENDERING
– It includes both national and international.
– Interested suppliers must be approved in advance (prequalification
process)
• conditions for RESTRICTED TENDERING
– the required object of procurement is available only with limited suppliers;
– the cost of procurement does not exceed the threshold specified
– when the goods or services by reason of the highly complex or specialized nature
– are only available from a limited number of suppliers.
– he time and cost required to examine and evaluate a large number of bids would be
disproportionate to the value of the goods or services to be procured.
– This method is very similar to ICB/NCB using almost identical bidding documents.
17/12/2022
169. • Two Stage Bidding
• Public bodies may engage in procurement by means of two-stage
bidding:
– when it is not feasible for the Public body to formulate detailed
specifications for the goods or works and in the case of services, to
identify their characteristics and, in order to obtain the most
satisfactory solution to its procurement needs;
– when the Public body seeks to enter into a contract for the purpose of
research, experiment, study or development" except where the
contract includes the production of goods in quantities sufficient to
establish their commercial viability or to recover research and
development costs;
– where bid proceedings are initiated but no bids are submitted as a result of
the nature of the object of procurement not being clearly described or where
all bids are rejected due to failure;
– Because of the technical character of the required goods or works, or because
of the nature of the consultancy or other services it is necessary for the Public
body to negotiate with the suppliers.
17/12/2022
170. Procurement methods
• Request for Quotations
– for the purchase of readily available goods for which there is an
established market
– the estimated value of the contract does not exceed an amount stated
in the procurement directive to be issued by the Minister.
– Request for quotation can be theoretically both from National and
International suppliers or even a mixture.
– In practice, it is usually only used for national due to the limitation of the
threshold that would make it extremely unlikely, a response would be
received from an International. This method only requires quotations to be
solicited from at least three different suppliers.
17/12/2022
171. Procurement methods
• Direct Procurement
– is when the purchaser establishes direct contact with suppliers (without competition)
or their representatives.
– it can be applied both for domestic and foreign Contractors/ Suppliers/ Consultants.
• Conditions for Direct Procurement
– in absence of competitions (goods, works consultancy) or provided only by one
candidate;
– for additional deliveries of goods by the original supplier
• replacement , installations or as the extension of existing supplies,
– additional works, which have been not included in the initial contract
– During emergency
17/12/2022
172. • General circumstances for direct contracting
– Emergency
– Urgency (very seldom seen in international best practice)
– When a competitive bidding process has been conducted several
times without satisfactory result
– Procure or lease real estate property
– Standardization
– Established prices/rates
– Existing contract (including contract variations & amendments)
– Procuring based on a competitive bidding conducted within last e.g.
12 months – same item/prices
– Professional services that cannot be objectively evaluated.
– Situations, where formal solicitation will not give satisfactory result
17/12/2022
173. • Framework contracts – often a way to avoid emergency
procurement
– Establishing long term zero-contract framework contracts based a competitive process
and with short notices for delivery is a common way to avoid ‘emergency’ and
‘urgency’ procurement.
– If such zero-framework contracts are established for goods/services which have a
history for falling under emergency/urgency, the products/services can be required
with short notice – and still based on competitive tendering.
– Whether or not the need comes up: the cost of having the zero framework contracts is
zero.
17/12/2022
175. 3.1 INCOTERMS as stipulated by the ICC
• INCOTERMS are a series of pre-defined commercial terms published
by the International Chamber of Commerce widely used in
international commercial transactions.
• internationally accepted terms
• Intended primarily to clearly communicate the tasks, costs and risks
associated with the transportation and delivery of goods.
• Accepted by governments, legal authorities and practitioners
worldwide for the interpretation of most commonly used terms in
IT.
• Intended to reduce or remove altogether uncertainties arising from
different interpretation of the rules in different countries.
• First published in 1936, periodically updated, (1953, 1967, 1976,
1980, 1990, 2000) with the eighth version—INCOTERMS 2010—
having been published on January 1, 2011.
176. • INCOTERMS
– Define the responsibilities of exporters and
importers in the arrangement of shipments
and the transfer of liability involved at various
stages of the transaction.
– Do not cover ownership or the transfer of title
of goods.
– It will affect the costs and responsibilities
involved in shipping, insurance and tariffs.
177. Cont…d
• Appropriate term needs to be chosen
• E.g., EXW
– an exporter needs to make the goods available for pick
up and provide any product information needed.
– The importer's agent (freight forwarder) will arrange
and pay for the pre-carriage, shipping, insurance and
any additional costs from the exporter's door.
• CIF
– term requires the exporter to arrange and pay for the
pre-carriage, shipping, and insurance to a named port
of destination.
– In this case, the sale price (invoice) includes the Cost
of goods, Insurance and Freight costs that the importer
pays the exporter.
178. Cont…d
• The 2010 version consists 11 terms grouped into two
• Rules for Sea and Inland Waterway Transport:
• FAS - Free Alongside Ship
– Risk passes to buyer, including payment of all transportation and insurance
costs, once delivered alongside the ship (realistically at named port terminal)
by the seller. The export clearance obligation rests with the seller.
• FOB - Free On Board:
– Risk passes to buyer, including payment of all transportation and insurance
costs, once delivered on board the ship by the seller.
• CFR - Cost and Freight
– Seller delivers goods and risk passes to buyer when on board the vessel.
– Seller arranges and pays cost and freight to the named destination port. A step
further than FOB.
• CIF - Cost, Insurance and Freight
– Risk passes to buyer when delivered on board the ship.
– Seller arranges and pays cost, freight and insurance to destination port.
– Adds insurance costs to CFR.
179. Cont…d
• Rules for Any Mode or Modes of Transportation:
• EXW - Ex Works:
– Seller delivers (without loading) the goods at disposal of buyer at seller's
premises.
– Long held as the most preferable term for those new-to-export because it
represents the minimum liability to the seller.
• FCA - Free Carrier:
– Seller delivers the goods to the carrier and may be responsible for
clearing the goods for export. More realistic than EXW because it
includes loading at pick-up, which is commonly expected, and sellers are
more concerned about export violations.
• CPT - Carriage Paid To:
– Seller delivers goods to the carrier at an agreed place, shifting risk to the
buyer, but seller must pay cost of carriage to the named place of
destination.
• CIP - Carriage and Insurance Paid To:
– Seller delivers goods to the carrier at an agreed place, shifting risk to the
buyer, but seller pays carriage and insurance to the named place of
destination.
180. Cont…d
• DAT - Delivered at Terminal:
– Seller bears cost, risk and responsibility until goods are unloaded
(delivered) at named quay, warehouse, yard, or terminal at
destination.
– Demurrage or detention charges may apply to seller.
– Seller clears goods for export, not import.
• DAP - Delivered at Place:
– Seller bears cost, risk and responsibility for goods until made
available to buyer at named place of destination. Seller clears
goods for export, not import.
• DDP - Delivered Duty Paid:
– Seller bears cost, risk and responsibility for cleared goods at
named place of destination at buyers disposal.
– Buyer is responsible for unloading.
– Seller is responsible for import clearance, duties and taxes so
buyer is not “importer of record”.
181. INCOTERMS 2010
Grou
p
Description Abb. Terms Detail Terms
E The seller’s obligation is at its
minimum: the seller has to do no
more than place the goods at the
disposal of the buyer at the agreed
place - usually at the seller’s own
premises.
EXW EX Work (Named Place)
F The seller to deliver the goods to a
nominated carrier as instructed by
the buyer. F stands for Free.
FAS Free Alongside Ship (Name port of
loading/shipment)
FOB Free On Board (Named port of
shipment)
FCA Free Carrier (Named Place)
C The seller to contract for carriage
on usual terms at his own expense.
Therefore, a point up to which he
would have to pay transport costs
must necessarily be indicated after
the respective “C” term CFR
Karachi. C stands for
“Cost/Carriage”.
CFR Cost of Freight (Named port of
destination)
CPT Carriage Paid To (Named place of
destination)
CIF Cost, Insurance & Freight (Named place
of destination)
CIP Carriage & Insurance Paid to (Named
place of destination)
D The seller bears all costs & risks
related to the delivery of the goods
DAF Delivered at Terminal
DAP Delivered at Terminal
181
184. Role of Banks (Commercial /National)
Banks provide services such as
advice on financial issues, IT processes, documentation,
banking procedures and the potential risks involved.
Documentary requirements
– Buyer - What documents does he needs?
– Seller - With what documents will he be able to supply?
– Country of export - what documents are required under the
regulations of the exporting country?
– Country of import - what documents are required under the
regulations of the importing country?
184
185. Role of Banks (Commercial / National)
• Wants/needs and problem of trading partners
Partner Wants / Needs Problems
Buyer
Wants
1. Contract
fulfillment.
2. Convenience.
3. Credit.
4. Advice and
assistance
1. Am I going to get the goods? (in good
condition / in time)
2. Does the settlement method safeguard
these risks?
3. Before we pay—how to check the goods are
exactly those ordered?
4. Any credit terms available Prefers to delay
paying for the goods until they are sold.
5. From where can I get information on the
exporter’s creditability
Seller
Needs
1. Contract
fulfillment.
2. Convenience.
3. Prompt
payment.
4. Advice and
1. Will I be paid?
2. When will I be paid?
3. How to minimize risk of non-payment?
4. How to maintain secrecy of our supplier?
185
186. Role of Banks (Commercial / National)
Basic agreement (International Trade – Sale Contract)
1. Preliminary Quotation & Commitment (Invoicing /
order etc)
2. The Merchandise (goods to be imported / exported)
3. Packing (instructions regarding packing of imported /
exported merchandise)
4. Method of Settlement
5. Shipping Instructions (trans shipment – partial
shipment etc)
6. Price and its components (INCOTERMS 2010)
7. Delivery Mode ,Period, Place (Sea, Air, Road – place of
shipment and last date of shipment)
8. Documents (Invoice, packing list, inspection report,
certificate of origin, Bill of lading (B/L) and Airway bill
(AWB) etc)
186
187. Making and Receiving Payment Internationally :
International Payment Instruments
• payment methods available in settling an
international trade transaction.
– Clean Payments
– Documentary Collections
– Letters of Credit
188. Clean Payments
•Clean Payments are characterized by trust.
• Either the Exporter sends the goods and trusts the Importer to pay once the
goods have been received, or the Importer trusts the Exporter to send the goods
after payment is effected.
•In the case of Clean Payment transactions, all shipping documents, including title
documents, are handled directly by the trading parties. The role of banks is limited
to clearing funds as required.
•There are two types of Clean Payments: Open Account & Payment in Advance.
•Open Account. The Importer is trusted to pay the Exporter after receipt of the
goods.
•Payment in Advance. An arrangement whereby the Exporter is trusted to ship
the goods after receiving payment from the Importer.
189. Clean Payments
How does an Open Account transaction work?
OPEN ACCOUNT: The
Exporter ships the goods
and the documents
directly to the Importer
and waits for the Importer
to send payment.
Exporter
Importer
2
GOODS
1
PAYMENT
190. Clean Payments
How does a Payment in Advance transaction work?
PAYMENT IN ADVANCE:
The Importer sends
payment directly to the
Exporter and waits for the
Exporter to send the
goods and documents.
Exporter
Importer
2
GOODS
1
PAYMENT
191. Risk Analysis: Clean Payments
Advantages to Exporter:
•Assumes no risks
Disadvantages to Exporter:
•None
Advantages to Importer:
•None - but could secure low cost!
Disadvantages to Importer:
•Assumes all risks
•Opportunity cost of using company’s cash
resources until goods are received.
Open Account
Payment in Advance
Advantages to Exporter:
•None - but could clinch the sale!
Disadvantages to Exporter:
•Assumes all risks
Advantages to Importer:
•Assumes no risks
•Delays use of company’s cash resources.
Disadvantages to Importer:
•None
192. Documentary Collections
What is a Documentary Collection?
•A method of payment used in international trade whereby the Exporter
entrusts the handling of commercial and often financial documents to
banks and gives the banks instructions concerning the release of these
documents to the Importer.
•Banks involved do not provide any guarantee of payment.
•Documents Against Payment (D/P) & Documents Against
Acceptance (D/A)
Documentary Collections may be carried out in two different ways:
•Documents Against Payment. Documents are released to the
Importer only against payment. Also known as a Sight Collection or
Cash Against Documents (CAD).
•Documents Against Acceptance. Documents are released to the
Importer only against acceptance of a draft. Also known as a Term
Collection.
193. Documentary Collections
How does a Documentary Collection work?
The mechanics of a Documentary Collection are
easily understood when separated into the following
three steps:
» Flow of Goods
» Flow of Documents
» Flow of Payment
194. Documentary Collections:
Flow of Documents
After the goods are shipped, documents
originating with the Exporter (e.g. commercial
invoice) and the transport company (e.g. bill of
lading) are delivered to a bank, called the
Remitting Bank in the Collection process. The
role of the Remitting Bank is to send these
documents accompanied by a Collection
Instruction giving complete and precise
instructions to a bank in the Importer’s
country, referred to as the Collecting/
Presenting Bank in the Collection process.
The Collecting/ Presenting Bank acts in
accordance with the instructions given in the
Collection Instruction and releases the
documents to the Importer against payment
or acceptance, according to the Remitting
Bank’s Collection instructions.
Note: The Exporter’s Bank and the Remitting Bank need
not be the same. Also, the Collecting Bank and Presenting
Bank need not be the same. Each role could be
performed by a different bank.
Collecting/
Presenting Bank
Importer/D
rawee
Remitting
Bank
2
3
4
Exporter/D
rawer
GOODS
1
Documents
Documents
Documents
195. Documentary Collections:
Flow of Payment
Payment is forwarded
to the Remitting Bank
for the Exporter’s
account. And the
Importer can now
present the transport
document* to the
carrier in exchange for
the goods.
Remitting
Bank
Presenting/
Collecting Bank
1
2
Exporter/D
rawer
Importer/D
rawee
Documents
4
3
*In this case, we are assuming that the
transport document is a title document.
GOODS
196. Risk Analysis: Documentary Collections
Documentary Collections may be settled in two different ways. Documents Against Payment (D/P) refers to a
Collection where the Importer receives the documents only in exchange for payment. With Documents Against
Acceptance (D/A), the Importer may obtain the documents in exchange for the acceptance of the obligation to pay
at a specified future date. These two methods of settlement carry different risks for both Importers and Exporters.
Documents Against
Payment (D/P)
Documents Against
Acceptance (D/A)
Advantages to the Exporter:
•Documents are not released to the Importer until payment
has been effected.
•Less costly than a Letter of Credit.
Disadvantages to the Exporter:
•Risk of refusal of payment.
•Commercial and country risks not hedged.
Advantages to the Importer:
•Ability to examine documents before authorizing payment.
•Unlike a Letter of Credit, a line of credit is not required, and
fees are minimal.
Disadvantages to the Importer:
•In the case that transport documents carry title, cannot
access goods until payment has been made.
Advantages to the Exporter:
•Less costly than a Letter of Credit.
•May provide formal/legal means to collect unpaid obligation.
Disadvantages to the Exporter:
•Risk of non-acceptance of documents.
•Commercial and country risks not hedged.
•Although bill of exchange/draft is accepted by the Importer,
there is no guarantee of payment by the banks involved.
•Legal enforcement of unpaid obligation costly and time-
consuming.
Advantages to the Importer:
•Will receive goods before having to make payment.
Disadvantages to the Importer:
•Dishonouring an accepted draft is a legal liability and may ruin
business reputation.
197. Letters of Credit
•A Letter of Credit is a written undertaking by the Importer’s bank, known as
the Issuing Bank, on behalf of its customer, the Importer (Applicant),
promising to effect payment in favor of the Exporter (Beneficiary) up to a
stated sum of money, within a prescribed time limit and against stipulated
documents.
•A key principle underlying Letters of Credit is that banks deal only in
documents and not in goods.
•The decision to pay under a Letter of Credit will be based entirely on whether
the documents presented to the bank appear on their face to be in accordance
with the terms and conditions of the Letter of Credit.
• It would be prohibitive for the banks to physically check whether all
merchandise has been shipped exactly as per each letter of Credit.
What is a Letter of Credit?
198. Letters of Credit
• Letters of Credit are either
Revocable or Irrevocable:
– A Revocable Letter of
Credit can be revoked
without the consent of the
Exporter, (it may be
canceled or changed up to
the time the documents are
presented).
– An Irrevocable Letter of
Credit cannot be canceled
or amended without the
consent of all parties
including the Exporter.
Unless otherwise stipulated,
all Letters of Credit are
irrevocable.
• Letters of Credit may be settled
either by sight or by
acceptance:
– If payment is to be made at
the time that documents
are presented, this is
referred to as a sight Letter
of Credit.
– If payment is to be made at
a future fixed time from the
presentation of documents,
this is referred to as a term
Letter of Credit
Basic Facts: Revocable/Irrevocable & Sight/Term
199. Letters of Credit
Confirmed Letter of Credit
•Under a Confirmed Letter of Credit, a bank, called the Confirming
Bank, adds its commitment to that of the Issuing Bank to pay the
Exporter under the Letter of Credit provided all terms and
conditions of the Letter of Credit are met. The Confirming Bank is
usually located in the same country as the Exporter.
•An Exporter would request a Confirmed Letter of Credit if it does
not consider the financial strength of the Issuing Bank or the
country in which it is located to be acceptable risks.
200. Letters of Credit
How does a Letter of Credit work?
The mechanics of a Letter of Credit are easily
understood when separated into the following
three steps:
»Issuance
»Flow of Goods
»Flow of Documents & Payment
201. Letters of Credit:
Issuance
After the trading parties agree on a sale
of goods where payment is made by
Letter of Credit, the Importer requests
that its bank (the Issuing Bank) issue a
Letter of Credit in favour of the
Exporter (Beneficiary).
The Issuing Bank then sends the Letter
of Credit to the Advising Bank. A
request may be included for the
Advising Bank to add its confirmation.
The Advising Bank is usually located in
the country where the Exporter does
business and may be the Exporter’s
bank, but does not have to be.
Next, the Advising/Confirming Bank
verifies the Letter of Credit for
authenticity and sends it to the
Exporter.
1
Importer applies for
Letter of Credit.
3
Request to advise
& possibly
confirm the
Letter of Credit
Advice
/Confirmation
of the Letter of
Credit.
Advising/
Confirming Bank
Issuing Bank
2
4
Exporter/
Beneficiary
Importer/A
pplicant
Contract
Negotiations
202. Letters of Credit:
Flow of Goods
Upon receipt of the Letter of Credit,
the Exporter reviews the Letter of
Credit to ensure that it corresponds
to the terms and conditions in the
purchase and sales agreement; that
the documents stipulated in the
Letter of Credit can be produced;
and that the terms and conditions of
the Letter of Credit can be fulfilled.
Assuming the Exporter is in
agreement with the above, it
arranges for shipment of the goods.
GOODS
Exporter/Beneficiary
Importer/Applicant
203. Letters of Credit:
Flow of Documents & Payment
After the goods are shipped, the
Exporter presents the
documents specified in the
Letter of Credit to the Advising/
Confirming Bank.
Once the documents are
checked and found to comply
with the Letter of Credit (i.e.
without discrepancies), the
Advising/ Confirming Bank
forwards these documents to the
Issuing Bank. The drawing is
negotiated, paid or accepted as
the case may be.
Issuing Bank
2
4
Exporter/
Beneficiary
Importer/A
pplicant
Documents
5
Documents
3
Advising/
Confirming Bank
1
GOODS
204. Letters of Credit:
Flow of Documents & Payment
In turn, the Issuing Bank
examines the documents to
ensure they comply with the
Letter of Credit. If the
documents are in order, the
Issuing Bank will obtain
payment from the Importer for
payment already made to the
Confirming Bank.
Documents are delivered to the
Importer to allow it to take
possession of the goods.
Issuing Bank
2
4
Exporter/
Beneficiary
Importer/A
pplicant
Documents
6
5
Documents
Documents
3
7
Advising/
Confirming Bank
1
GOODS
205. Risk Analysis: Letters of Credit
Importer Exporter
Advantages:
•An undertaking from the Issuing Bank
that you will receive payment under the
Letter of Credit provided that you meet all
terms and conditions of the Letter of
Credit.
•Shifts credit risk from the Importer to the
Issuing bank.
•Not obligated to ship against a Letter of
Credit that is not issued as agreed.
Disadvantages:
•Documents must be prepared in strict
compliance with the requirements
stipulated in the Letter of Credit. Non-
compliance leaves Exporter exposed to
risk of non-payment.
Advantages:
•Importer is assured that, for
the Exporter to be paid, all
terms and conditions of the
Letter of Credit must be met.
•Ability to negotiate more
favourable trade terms with
the Exporter when payment by
Letter of Credit is offered.
Disadvantages:
•A Letter of Credit assures
correct documents but not
necessarily correct goods.
•Ties up line of credit.
206. INTERNATIONAL PAYMENTS RISK SPECTRUM
Notice that Open Account and Payment in Advance sit at opposite ends of the Risk Spectrum.
Documentary Collections offer more of a compromise in risk-taking between the Importer
and the Exporter than Clean Payments. Whereas payment settled via Open Account and
Payment in Advance represent a high degree of risk for one of the parties involved, both
Documentary Collections and Letters of Credit offer a compromise in risks facing the
Importer and the Exporter.
LEAST RISK
TO IMPORTER
HIGHEST RISK
TO IMPORTER
HIGHEST RISK
TO EXPORTER
LEAST RISK TO
EXPORTER
•Open Account
•Documentary Collections
Documents Against Acceptance
Documents Against Payment
•Letters of Credit
Unconfirmed
Confirmed
•Payment in Advance
207. Procurement and Purchasing - what's
the difference?
• Procurement
– is the wider aspects related to the activities
associated with the provisioning of equipment,
products and services encompassing policy and
strategy development and implementation,
provisioning strategies and demand management etc.
• Purchasing
– is the procedural aspects related to competitive
processes and the methods employed to actually
purchase equipment, products and services.
17/12/2022
208. 3.2.2. Quantification of drug requirements
• Quantification- how much product is required for
purchasing
– Estimates the required finance
• To estimate needs
– Available funds
– Storage space capacity
– Human resource
17/12/2022
209. Logistics Terms
• Lead Time: Lead time is the time interval
between when new stock is ordered and
when it is received and available for use.
• Push System
• Pull System
• Dispensed-to-User Data
• Issues Data
• Inventory Control System
210. PIPELINE:
The pipeline is the entire chain of storage
facilities and transportation links through
which supplies move from the manufacturer
to the consumer, including the port facilities,
central warehouse, regional warehouses,
district warehouses, all service delivery points
and transport vehicles.
211. PUSH vs. PULL SYSTEM
PULL SYSTEM
(REQUISITION) :
Quantities to be issued are
determined by personnel who receive the
supplies.
PUSH SYSTEM
(ALLOCATION) :
Quantities to be issued are
determined by personnel who issue the
supplies.
212. DISPENSED-TO-USER
vs. ISSUES DATA
DISPENSED-TO-USER DATA:
Information about the quantity of
goods actually put in the hands of
clients.
(Often shortened to
“dispensed data.”)
ISSUES DATA:
Information about the quantity of
goods shipped from one level of the
system to another.
215. 2018
Christian N. & Seid Y.
Quora: ”Demand forecasting is predicting future
demand for the product. In other words, it refers to the
prediction of probable demand for a product or a
service on the basis of the past events and prevailing
trends in the present.”
What actually is demand forecasting ?
Source: KLU T-T-T 2018
216. 2018
Christian N. & Seid Y.
Introduction…..cont’d
Different products
Different supply chain
Perishability
Banana vs. pumps
Source
Single source
Multiple source
Customer
Consumer e.g. women for
shoes
B2C e.g. banana
Manufacturer
Construction company
Similarity in decision
making
How much inventory
How do I forecast demand
Where to stock inventory
How do I move product
from source to final
destination
Difference
Value
Outcome
17/12/2022
217. 2018
Christian N. & Seid Y.
An accurate forecast is crucial for almost all business
decisions, e.g., production planning, capacity planning,
inventory management, work force management,
budget allocation, etc.
More accurate forecasts lead to better resource
allocation and thus improved financial performance.
WHY DO WE NEED DEMAND FORECASTING?
Source: KLU T-T-T 2018
222. 2018
Christian N. & Seid Y.
Forecast error increases with lead time
Forecast
error Lead time
+
-
223. 2018
Christian N. & Seid Y.
Marketing/
Logistic / sales
29%
Operation/Prod
uction
27%
Forecasting
Department
19%
Finance
7%
Strategic
planning
6%
Others
12%
Place of Forecasters
Source: Chaman Jain, “Benchmarking Forecasting Processes,”
Journal of Business Forecasting 26, no. 4 (Winter 2007–08),
p.12.
224. 2018
Christian N. & Seid Y.
Company Krispy Kreme Doughnuts GSK Phar Company Fiat Auto
Data used • seasonal factors.
• general population
Growth
• foot traffic
• display locations
Sales data GDP
interest rate
inflation rate
raw-material prices
Forecast
method
multiple forecasting
system
Quantitative methods
and personal
judgments
Quantitative
Use of
forecast
• to provide information
related to production
requirements
• to provide financial
forecast
• To allocate
resource for HR
planning, for
promotions &
strategic
planning
• To set sales
quotas.
To estimate total
sales of vehicles,
engines, and gears
225. 2018
Christian N. & Seid Y.
Fundamental approaches to forecasting
Forecasting methods
Qualitative or
judgemental
Quantitative or statistical
Projective
• Projecting past patterns / trends into the future
Causal
• Examining external factors that affect demand to
forecast demand
227. 2018
Christian N. & Seid Y.
Qualitative methods
Qualitative forecasting techniques are:
subjective, based on the opinion and judgment
of consumers, experts
appropriate when past data are not available.
usually applied to intermediate- or long-range
decisions.
17/12/2022
228. 2018
Christian N. & Seid Y.
Jury of executive opinion
Appropriate managers within the organization assemble to discuss their
opinions on what will happen to demand in the future.
experienced guesses
the resulting forecast is a blend of informed opinions.
How to do the forecast?
select people from different functional areas to get rich information
Opinions can be collected in individual interviews or in a meeting
Meeting
Adv: an opportunity to discuss various points of view and deeper insights
Dis-adv: people with strong personalities dominate the group, their opinions will
become disproportionately important in the final consensus that is reached.
17/12/2022
229. 2018
Christian N. & Seid Y.
Delphi Method
Delphi Method-
gathers, evaluates, and summarizes expert opinions as the
basis for a forecast, but the procedure is more formal than that
for the jury of executive opinion method.
Adv:
takes the wisdom and insight of people who have
considerable expertise about the area to be forecast.
anonymity among the participants.
The experts, perhaps five to seven in number
Experts never meet to discuss their views
none of them even knows who else is on the panel.
17/12/2022
230. 2018
Christian N. & Seid Y.
Delphi Method
The Delphi Method has the following steps:
STEP 1 – Participating panel members are selected.
STEP 2. Questionnaires asking for opinions about the variables to be forecast are
distributed to panel members.
STEP 3. Results from panel members are collected, tabulated, and summarized.
– Copies of summary are given to the individual experts with the request that they modify
their original answers if they think it necessary.
STEP 4 – Another summary is made of these modifications, and copies again are
distributed to the experts. This time, however, expert opinions that deviate significantly
from the norm must be justified in writing.
STEP 5 – A third summary is made of the opinions and justifications, and copies are once
again distributed to the experts. Justification in writing for all answers is now required.
STEP 6 – The forecast is generated from all of the opinions and justifications that arise
from step 5.
17/12/2022
231. 2018
Christian N. & Seid Y.
Sales force composite
Sales force composite:
Marketers have sales managers or representatives at different
sales territories (districts/region) and marketers believe that sales
managers know their territory better than anybody else.
Managers ask respective sales manager to forecast expected sales in
their own territories.
The total of all these estimates basically gives company’s
sales/demand forecast for next period.
Advantage: getting information from sources who are very close to
actual Buyers
Disadvantage: if sales force are given quotas and bonus is
considered based on the assigned performance
17/12/2022
232. 2018
Christian N. & Seid Y.
Consumer market survey
Customer Survey and the General Population
Marketers ask buyers about how many units that they would like to purchase
from company’s products for coming period of time.
Assumption: buyers plan their purchases and follow through with their plans
more realistic for industrial sales than for sales to households and individuals.
more realistic for big-ticket items than for convenience goods
Example: Survey data concerning how people feel about the economy are
sometimes used by forecasters to help predict certain buying behaviors
17/12/2022
233. 2018
Christian N. & Seid Y.
Advantages and Disadvantage of qualitative methods
Advantages
Do not require any particular mathematical background of the
individuals involved
Wide acceptance by user
Disadvantages
always biased
they are not consistently accurate over time
it takes years of experience for someone to learn how to convert
intuitive judgment into good forecasts.
17/12/2022
234. 2018
Christian N. & Seid Y.
Quantitative Forecasting methods-Time Series Methods
235. 2018
Christian N. & Seid Y.
Time series methods are statistical techniques that make
use of historical data accumulated over a period of time.
Time series methods assume that what has occurred in the
past will continue to occur in the future.
These methods relate the forecast to only one factor time.
Two types of time series methods: the moving average and
exponential smoothing.
Time Series Methods
236. 2018
Christian N. & Seid Y.
Demand
Time
Common patterns in time series
Demand
Time
Demand
Time
Demand
Time
Seasonality
Seasonality &
Trend
Constant
series
Trend
237. 2018
Christian N. & Seid Y.
Simple average
Moving average
Exponential smoothing
Projective forecasting methods
238. 2018
Christian N. & Seid Y.
Simple average: an average of the demand in the past
Easy to apply and good results when demand is constant
Inappropriate when seasonality is present
Past demand figures are equally weighted, i.e. the forecast does not respond
quickly to changes in demand
𝐹𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑡 27 =
(𝐷𝑚𝑑1 + 𝐷𝑚𝑑2 + … + 𝐷𝑚𝑑26)
26
𝐹𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑡 27 =
(49+50+ …+48)
26
= 50
Simple average
40
44
48
52
56
60
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Demand
(units)
Time (weeks)
Simple average Sales
If a simple average is
projected into the
future, it results in a
flat line forecast
239. 2018
Christian N. & Seid Y.
Moving average: an average of n past periods
Forecast is based on more recent sales data (but still equally weighted)
n determines which periods to be included in the forecast
What value of n to choose?
Small number (n=3) results in responsive forecast, while high number (n=10) gives a less sensitive forecast
The moving average method is good for stable demand with no pronounced behavioral patterns.
𝐹𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑡 27 =
(𝐷𝑚𝑑24 + 𝐷𝑚𝑑25 + 𝐷𝑚𝑑26)
3
𝐹𝑜𝑟𝑒𝑐𝑎𝑠𝑡 27 =
(52+30+48)
3
= 43
Moving average
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 31 33 35
Demand
(units)
Time (weeks)
Moving average (n=10) Moving average (n=3) Sales
The moving average
projected into the
future
Drawbacks of averages:
• all historical values are given the same
weight
• the method only works well with relatively
constant demand