Marketing document_indian outlook series_lowres

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US.
Now spanning the energy and resources markets of India,
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the latest market trends and developments through our
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and associated industries. Salva Report is a primary
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analysis, forecasts and advice using on-the-ground experts
to deliver unique, unbiased insights. Salva Report doesn’t
believe in conducting broad research from afar, but operates
locally within the markets we cover.
Salva Report is led by Chief Analyst, Mark Gresswell.
Mark’s significant coal industry experience includes thermal
coal trading, global market analysis of coking and thermal
coal markets, detailed country studies, pricing forecasts,
demand and supply modelling and strategic analysis. Mark
is a well-respected authority on the Indian and Indonesian
coal, power and steel industries.
Mark leads a large team of analysts based in India,
Indonesia and Australia. Our strength in reporting on
the Indian market comes from our skills, experience and
our local team of sector-focused analysts who dedicate
their time to understanding the local industry, delivering
considerable knowledge and insight.
Having had a local presence in India since 2007,
we understand the difficulty in obtaining
current, transparent information, that’s why
we created Salva Report.
In addition to our suite of products, Salva Report delivers
custom consulting services and reports to a broad range
of global clients. Some of our recent work includes
thermal and coking coal supply and demand forecasting,
a review and forecast of Indian bulk ports, mergers and
acquisition advice, and coal market entry services. For more
information on our products or how we can assist you in
understanding the Indian market, please visit:
www.salvareport.com

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and demand drivers. The most accurate and
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Each report includes:
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relevant sectors.

FORECASTING
FY2012 - 2013.
INDIAN POWER &
THERMAL COAL
OUTLOOK.
SAMPLE
Covering the Indian 2012 - 13 Financial Year
(commencing 1 April 2012), the Indian Power and
Thermal Coal Outlook is an insightful 42 page report
covering the following key areas:
· Domestic thermal coal production, consumption
and imports by industry (power, cement and sponge
iron);
· Installed and planned capacity growth by industry;
· FY11-12 Review – covers key trends, growth rates
and drivers, M&A activity, regulatory changes and
project developments;
· FY12-13 Outlook – provides detailed annual forecasts
of key demand and supply drivers, new projects
coming online and other trends likely to emerge.
The annual subscription includes three
quarterly updates incorporating updated
forecasts, commentary and analysis of the latest
developments and state of play.
The following section is a sample of the FY2012-13
Indian Power and Thermal Coal Outlook.

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY 04
THERMAL COAL DEMAND OVERVIEW 06
Generation Fuel Mix 08
REVIEW OF FY11-12 09
FY11-12 Macro-economic Review 10
Power Sector 11
Capacity Additions 11
Coal-fired Generation 14
Regulatory Update 15
Thermal Coal Consumption 16
Major Players 17
Cement Sector 18
Sponge Iron Sector 19
Domestic Coal Supply 20
Coal Imports 22
Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS
OUTLOOK FOR FY12-13 23
Thermal Coal Demand 25
Power Sector 26
Cement Sector 30
Sponge Iron Sector 31
Thermal Coal Supply 32
Domestic Thermal Coal Supply 32
Imported Thermal Coal Supply 33
GLOSSARY 34
APPENDICES 36
*
* Sample Provided

Figure 1: Indian Thermal Coal Consumption (Mt) 06
Figure 2: Thermal Coal Consumption by Industry FY10-11 06
Figure 3: Coal-fired Installed Capacity (GW) 07
Figure 4: Thermal Coal Consumption by Power Sector (Mt) 07
Figure 5: India’s Electricity Demand Supply Gap 07
Figure 6: Installed Capacity Share FY11-12 08
Figure 7: Power Generation Share FY11-12 08
Figure 8: GDP Growth Rate (%) 10
Figure 9: Coal-fired Capacity Addition by Ownership (GW) 12
Figure 10: Coal-fired Capacity Share FY10-11 12
Figure 11: Coal-fired Capacity Share FY11-12 12
Figure 12: Thermal Coal Consumption by Power Industry (Mt) 16
Figure 13: Top 5 Power Utilities Coal-fired Capacity (GW) 17
Figure 14: Top 5 Power Utilities - Coal Imports (Mt) 17
Figure 15: Cement Plant Capacity Utilisation Rate (%) 18
Figure 16: Sponge Iron Production by Fuel Type (Mt) 19
Figure 17: Domestic Coal Supply by Source (Mt) 20
Figure 18: Thermal Coal Production by Grade FY10-11 (Mt) 21
Figure 19: Thermal Coal Production by Grade FY11-12 (Mt) 21
Figure 20: Thermal Coal Imported by Source (Mt) 22
Figure 21: Thermal Coal Consumption by Industry (Mt) 25
Figure 22: India: Power Generation by Source (TWh) 26
Figure 23: Power Utilities Coal Demand Forecast (Mt) 27
Figure 24: Top 5 Power Utilities Coal-fired Capacity (GW) 29
Figure 25: Top 5 Coal Importers - Power Utilities (Mt) 29
Figure 26: Cement Production Forecast (Mt) 30
Figure 27: Cement Sector Coal Demand Forecast (Mt) 30
Figure 28: Sponge Iron Production Forecast (Mt) 31
Figure 29: Sponge Iron Sector Coal Demand Forecast (Mt) 31
Figure 30: Domestic Thermal Coal Supply Forecast (Mt) 32
Figure 31: Thermal Coal Import Forecast (Mt) 33
DISCLAIMER: All of the information contained in this report is to be considered confidential, and
the recipient of this report agrees to retain the information in confidence and will not disclose
any of the information to others except as expressly permitted by Salva Report Pty Ltd. Only the
recipient may rely upon this presentation.
This report is intended to provide general information only.
Given that forecasts change on a daily basis, it is not intended to be completely accurate and
should not be relied upon as such.
Salva Report Pty Ltd disclaims liability for loss incurred by any person acting in reliance upon
the information contained in this report.
Table 1: FY11-12 Review 09
Table 2: Capacity Addition Overview 11
Table 3: FY11-12 Regulatory Update 15
Table 4: Coal Quality Grades 20
Table 5: FY12-13 Performance Outlook 24
Table 6: Capacity Addition Overview 27
LIST OF CHARTS LIST OF TABLES
*
*
*
*
*

6
Overview
Thermal Coal Demand
India’s thermal coal consumption has
grown from 452 Mt in FY07-08 to
576 Mt in FY11-12, a compounded
annual growth rate (CAGR) of 6.3%
(see Figure 1).This demand has largely
met by domestic coal supply, which
increased to 484 Mt in FY11-12, up
from 423 Mt in FY07-08, a CAGR
of 3.4%. However, domestic supply
growth has struggled to match
demand, so imported coal supply has
grown at a CAGR of 34% over the
same period, increasing from 29 Mt in
FY07-08 to 92 Mt in FY11-12.
India’s power industry is the largest
consumer of thermal coal, accounting
for 75% of total thermal coal
consumption in FY10-11, followed
by other industries with a 13% share
(see Figure 2). Other industries include
the captive power industry and
process industries such as aluminium,
fertiliser, chemical, paper and bricks.
Coal consumption for the cement and
sponge iron industries was 7% and 5%
respectively.
INDIA’S GROWTH IN THERMAL COAL
DEMAND OVER THE PAST FEW YEARS
HAS BEEN STRONG, SUPPORTED BY
EXTENSIVE CAPACITY ADDITIONS IN
THE POWER, CEMENT AND SPONGE
IRON INDUSTRIES.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
FY07-08 FY08-09 FY09-10 FY10-11 FY11-12
Domestic Import
Figure 1: Indian Thermal Coal Consumption (Mt)
Figure 2: Coal Consumption by Industry FY10-11

7
Thermal coal consumption in the
power sector has been driven by
significant growth in coal-fired
capacity during the 11th five-year
plan (FY07-08 to FY11-12), which
increased from 72GW in FY07-08
to 107GW in FY11-12, a CAGR of
10.2% (see Figure 3).
The surge in new generation capacity
resulted in thermal coal demand from
India’s power sector growing from 330
Mt in FY07-08 to 431 Mt in FY11-
12, a CAGR of 6.9% (see Figure 4).
Despite the surge in generation
capacity (and output), India’s power
industry remains under constant
pressure to close a growing electricity
supply deficit. From a gap of about
73TWh (9.9 %) in FY07-08, the gap
has increased to 78TWh (8.3 %) in
FY11-12, growing at a CAGR of
1.4% (see Figure 5).
The reasons for India’s electricity
supply shortfall are many and varied,
including:
• Improper planning of generation
capacity addition with inadequate
transmission and distribution
(T&D) infrastructure;
• Under-utilisation of existing power
generation capacity;
• Inefficient transmission grid
which causes increasing aggregate
technical losses;
• Inefficient coal transportation
mechanism;
• Inability of domestic coal
producers to match coal demand;
and
• State distribution utilities with
large financial losses are having
problems purchasing high priced
electricity.
0
100
200
300
400
500
FY 07-08 FY 08-09 FY 09-10 FY 10-11 FY11-12
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
FY07-08 FY08-09 FY09-10 FY10-11 FY11-12
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
FY07-08 FY08-09 FY09-10 FY10-11 FY11-12
Electricity Requirement (lhs) Electricity Availability (lhs) Energy Gap (rhs)
TWh
Energy
Gap
(%)

Figure 4: Coal-fired Installed Capacity (GW
Figure 3: Thermal Coal Consumption by Power Sector (Mt)
Figure 5: India’s Electricity Demand Supply Gap

FORECASTING
FY2012 - 2013.
INDIAN BULK
PORTS
OUTLOOK.
SAMPLE
(commencing 1 April 2012), the Indian Bulk Ports
Outlook is an insightful 40 page report covering the
following key areas:
· Iron ore, thermal and coking coal trade by port;
· Installed and planned capacity by port;
Indian Bulk Ports Outlook.

Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Executive Summary 04
Indian Port Sector – Overview 06
Major and Non-Major Ports – Comparison 08
Review of FY11-12 09
Bulk Trade Developments 11
East Coast Coal Trade 13
Key Thermal Coal Ports 16
Key Thermal Coal Importers 16
Key Coking Coal Ports 17
Key Coking Coal Importers 17
West Coast Coal Trade 18
Key Thermal Coal Ports 20
Key Thermal Coal Importers 21
Key Coking Coal Ports 21
Key Coking Coal Importers 22
Iron Ore Exports 22
East Coast 24
West Coast 25
Outlook for FY12-13 26
Bulk Trade Developments 27
Bulk Traffic Projections 28
Thermal Coal Imports 32
Key East Coast Ports 32
Key West Coast Ports 33
Coking Coal Imports 34
Iron Ore Exports 36
Glossary 38
*
*
* Sample Provided

Figure 1: Indian Port Traffic Share FY11-12 06
Figure 2: Indian Bulk Trade (Mt) 06
Figure 3: Major Commodities Handled At Indian Ports 07
Figure 4: Major and Non-Major Ports Share of Total Trade 08
Figure 5: Macro-economic Factors and Indian Bulk Trade 10
Figure 6: East Coast Coal Imports (Mt) 13
Figure 7: India’s East Coast Ports 14
Figure 8: Key East Coast Thermal Coal Ports (Mt) 16
Figure 9: Key East Coast Thermal Coal Importers (Mt) 16
Figure 10: Key East Coast Coking Coal Ports (Mt) 17
Figure 11: Key East Coast Coking Coal Importers (Mt) 17
Figure 12: West Coast Coal Imports (Mt) 18
Figure 13: India’s West Coast Ports 19
Figure 14: Key West Coast Thermal Coal Ports (Mt) 20
Figure 15: Key West Coast Thermal Coal Importers (Mt) 21
Figure 16: Key West Coast Coking Coal Ports (Mt) 21
Figure 17: Key West Coast Coking Coal Importers (Mt) 22
Figure 18: Iron Ore Exports (Mt) 23
Figure 19: Key East Coast Iron Ore Ports (Mt) 24
Figure 20: Key East Coast Iron Ore Exporters FY11-12 (Mt) 24
Figure 21: Key West Coast Iron Ore Ports (Mt) 25
Figure 22: Key West Coast Iron Ore Exporters FY11-12 (Mt) 25
Figure 23: East Coast Bulk Trade (Mt) 28
Figure 24: West Coast Bulk Trade (Mt) 28
Figure 25: Forecast Thermal Coal Imports (Mt) 32
Figure 26: East Coast Thermal Coal Imports (Mt) 32
Figure 27: West Coast Thermal Coal Imports (Mt) 33
Figure 28: Forecast Coking Coal Imports (Mt) 34
Figure 29: East Coast Coking Coal Imports (Mt) 34
Figure 30: West Coast Coking Coal Imports (Mt) 35
Figure 31: Forecast Iron Ore Exports (Mt) 36
Figure 32: East Coast Iron Ore Exports (Mt) 36
Figure 33: West Coast Iron Ore Exports (Mt) 37
Table 1: Indian Bulk Trade Review of FY11-12 09
Table 2: Port Capacity addition projects (FY11-12) 11
Table 3: Port Capacity (all commodities) by State (FY11-12) 12
Table 4: Trade and Capacity Forecast FY12-13 26
Table 5: Delayed Capacity Addition Projects 27
Table 6: Bulk Projects to be Completed in FY12-13 27
Table 7: East Coast Bulk Trade Projections by Port (Mt) 29
Table 8: West Coast Bulk Trade Projection by Port (Mt) 30
*
*

8
Amidst the slow initial pace of
development, the state of Gujarat
broke new ground with distinctive
forms of privatisation, including the
formation of the first ever state level
maritime board, Gujarat Maritime
Board (GMB) in 1982. Gujarat
acted as a model for other coastal
states and catalysed PPP’s (Public
Private Partnerships) in the Indian
port sector. It also heralded a sense of
competitiveness among India’s coastal
states. After opening the Indian port
sector for private participation in
1996, port capacity has continued to
grow to more than 1 Bt in FY10-11.
The PPP model has worked well for
the Indian port sector, thanks to an
investor friendly policy framework.
The model, which includes 100%
FDI and concession agreements, has
attracted private investment for a
large number of port and port-related
infrastructure projects.
Over the last decade, traffic major
ports has grown from 281 Mt to 570
Mt, a CAGR of 7%, whereas across
the same period traffic at non-major
ports have grown at a much faster
CAGR of 14%, from 87 Mt in
FY00-01 to 313 Mt in FY10-11. It is
estimated that non-major ports will
overtake major ports in terms of bulk
Major and Non-Major Ports – Comparison
The development of bulk traffic volume at Indian ports
was unremarkable prior to liberalisation in 1991.
29%
71%
66% 65% 61%
34% 35% 39%
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
FY08-09 FY09-10 FY10-11 FY11-12
Major Non-Major
Figure 4: Major and Non-Major Ports Share of Total Trade
trade volume by 2015. Bulk traffic
at non-major ports has grown at a
CAGR of 26% y-o-y across the last
four years, growing from 43 Mt in
FY08-09 to 85 Mt in FY11-12, while
over the same period bulk traffic at
major ports has declined from 129 Mt
in FY08-09 to 105 Mt in FY11-12, a
CAGR of -6%.
Figure 4 illustrates the shift of
Indian trade volume contribution
between major and non-major Indian
ports. Iron ore is one of the main
commodities handled at major ports.
Due to the decline in India’s iron ore
trade the dry bulk handling share
of non-major ports is expected to
continue to rise as most iron ore is
handled through major ports.

9
FY10-11 FY11-12 Growth (%)
Thermal coal imports (Mt) 67 92 37%
Coking coal imports (Mt) 35 35 0%
Iron ore exports (Mt) 98 63 -35%
Total dry bulk trade (Mt) 200 190 -5%
Coal capacity (Mtpa) 169 220 30%
Iron ore capacity (Mtpa) 160 193 20%
Total dry bulk capacity (Mtpa) 329 413 25%
Table 1: Indian Bulk Trade Review of FY11-12
Review of FY11-12
For the purpose of this report dry
bulk trade includes thermal coal
imports, coking coal imports and
iron ore exports.
India’s bulk ports profile for FY11-12
was characterised by a 37% increase in
thermal coal imports and a 35% drop
in iron ore exports leading to a decline
in overall total dry bulk trade.Table
1 provides a summary of the major
market drivers affecting India’s bulk
port traffic profile in FY11-12.

16
FORECASTING
FY2012 - 2013.
INDIAN STEEL
& COKING COAL
OUTLOOK.
SAMPLE
(commencing 1 April 2012), the Indian Steel and
Coking Coal Outlook is an insightful 33 page report
covering the following key areas:
· Domestic coking coal and iron ore production,
consumption and imports by industry;
· Installed and planned capacity growth;
Indian Steel and Coking Coal Outlook.

Executive Summary 04
Overview – Indian Steel Industry 06
Industry Structure 07
Steel Production 08
Steel Demand 08
Steel Trade 09
Iron Ore Supply 10
Coking Coal Supply 11
Review of FY11-12 13
Steel Industry Developments 16
Steel Production 18
Iron Ore Demand 19
Steel Consumption 20
Coking Coal Consumption 20
Domestic Production 21
Major Coking Coal Importers 22
Contents
TABLE OF CONTENTS
Outlook for FY12-13 23
Steel Industry Developments 24
Steel Capacity 26
Steel Production 27
Steel Consumption 28
Coking Coal Demand 29
Coking Coal Supply 30
Domestic Production 30
Major Coking Coal Importers 31
Glossary 32*
* Sample Provided

Figure 1: Integrated Steel Producers 07
Figure 2: Secondary Steel Producers 07
Figure 3: Crude Steel Production in India (Mt) 08
Figure 4: Apparent Consumption of Finished Steel (Mt) 08
Figure 5: Apparent Steel Use per Capita 2010 (kg) 09
Figure 6: Steel Trade in India (Mt) 09
Figure 7: Indian Iron Ore Production (Mt) 10
Figure 8: Coking Coal Consumption in India (Mt) 11
Figure 9: Washed Coking Coal Production (Mt) 11
Figure 10: Coking Coal Imports to India (Mt) 12
Figure 11: Quarterly GDP Growth (y-o-y) 14
Figure 13: Iron Ore Production in India (Mt) 19
Figure 14: Top 5 Iron Ore Producers (Mt) 19
Figure 16: Indian Coking Coal Consumption (Mt) 20
Figure 17: Indian Washed Coking Coal Production (Mt) 21
Figure 18: Indian Coking Coal Imports (Mt) 21
Figure 19: Coking Coal Imports to India (Mt) 21
Figure 20: Top 5 Coking Coal Importers (Mt) 22
Figure 23: Indian Coking Coal Consumption (Mt) 29
Figure 24: Washed Coking Coal Production in India (Mt) 30
Figure 25: Indian Coking Coal Imports (Mt) 30
Figure 26: Top 5 Coking Coal Importers (Mt) 31
Table 1: Review of FY11-12 14
Table 2: Key Events - Iron Ore Mining Ban 17
Table 3: FY11-12 Delayed Major Steel Capacity Projects 18
Table 4: Outlook for FY12-13 24
Table 5: FY12-13 Steel Capacity Projects 26
*

14
FY11-12
macro-economic
review
GDP: For developing economies
such as India, steel consumption
growth correlates highly with growth
in gross domestic product (GDP)
and industrial production growth.
Typically, a 1% change in GDP
growth in India correlates to steel
consumption growth of approximately
1.1%.
The Indian economy is more insulated
from the global economy than other
Asian economies, as it relies less
heavily on exports to developed
markets. However, no economy
has been completely unaffected
by the prevailing global economic
uncertainty. As the effects of the
European debt crisis continue to be
felt, India’s economy experienced
moderated growth in FY11-12.
The primary growth drivers of steel
demand in India across FY11-12 are
detailed below.
0%
1%
2%
3%
4%
5%
6%
7%
8%
9%
Q1FY10-11
Q2FY10-11
Q3FY10-11
Q4FY10-11
Q1FY11-12
Q2FY11-12
Q3FY11-12
Q4FY11-12
Figure 11: Quarterly GDP Growth (y-o-y)
Additionally, GDP growth in FY10-
11 and FY11-12 was hampered by
numerous interest rate hikes aimed at
curbing inflation. Quarterly growth
rates have fallen in FY11-12, with
third quarter growth recorded at
6.1%. Earlier GDP expectations in
the range of 8% to 8.5% have been
reduced and the economy is now
expected to grow 6.9% in FY11-12
(see Figure 11).

21
In addition to the depressed global
economic environment, high interest
rates, prolonged inflationary pressures
and a higher than expected fiscal
deficit have led to declines in demand
in many interest rate sensitive
sectors, such as the construction and
automobile sectors, which has in
turn affected steel consumption.The
growth of the largest component of
aggregate demand in India, private
final expenditure, was 5.1% from
April to December’11, compared to
8.5% during the previous year.The
contraction in fixed capital formation
in FY11-12 is one of the main
factors behind the slowing of growth.
The decline in growth was also
seen in capital goods expenditure,
contracting to 2.8% from April’11 to
January’12, compared to 17% during
the same period last financial year.
Infrastructure Investment Drive:
The Indian economy has grown
at 8% over the last five years, and
is poised to maintain a similar
rate of growth. Salva believes that
sustainability of this trend will
necessitate massive infrastructure
investment. During the GoI’s 12th
five-year plan (FY12-13 to FY16-
17), the government is expected to
spend US$1 trill on infrastructure
development, nearly double the
investment in the government’s
11th five-year plan, on major
infrastructure projects such as
electricity, telecommunications
networks, roads, bridges, railways
and ports.This massive government
effort to create transport and
industrial infrastructure will boost
steel demand in India.The Union
Budget of India FY12-13 also
brought positive news for the
infrastructure sector, with a budget
allocation increase of 23% to INR
2,140 bill (US$47 bill), 48.5% of the
total budget allocation.
Growing steel consumer-industries:
Steel consumer industries in India,
such as the automobile, machinery
and consumer durables industries
are growing at a healthy rate. In
FY09-10, India became the world’s
second fastest growing automobile
market after China with 26% growth
y-o-y. India is also the second largest
motorcycle and tractor manufacturer
in the world. With passenger car
density at 8 cars per 1,000 people
(compared to 24 in China and 119 in
Brazil) and rising disposable income,
India has strong potential for
sustained growth in the automobile
sector. Growing industrialisation
and an emerging middle class has
seen high growth in capital goods
and consumer durables production
over the last five years. While growth
figures have been subdued recently
due to a moderation in economic
growth, underlying trends are still
strong for sustained growth in steel
consumption.

24
Australia | India | Indonesia
International Head Office
Level 11. 82 Eagle Street
Brisbane. QLD 4000. Australia
+61 (7) 3258 6100
www.salvareport.com

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