1. Sustainability – session 1
Anthropocene - Business, Society and
Nature revisited
Aurélien ACQUIER
Professor ESCP Business School, Dean for Sustainability Transition
Co-director, ESCP Chair in Circular Economy
aacquier@escp.eu
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3. The scale and scope of sustainability transition
3
Putting « sustainable »
in front of existing
contents is NOT going
to help
Dividing CO2
emissions / capita by a
ratio of 5/6 in 2050!!
1. Climate change (+1.1 degrees since 1850)
2. Biodiversity collapse 3. Resource scarcity
4. Social and Economic consequences
7. Sustainable development: reconsidering economic
development and prosperity in a new context
Economic
Social Environmental
Sustainable Development: a development that
"meets the needs of the present without
compromising the ability of future generations to
meet their own needs." (Brundtland, 1987)
Triple bottom line (Elkington 1998)
9. The anthropocene – a definition
• A proposed geological epoch succeeding the holocene, where
the impact of men over the biosphere reaches such a level that
humans become a major geological force able to shape the
lithosphere (see Krutzen and Stoermer (2000), Krutzen (2002))
• This new “Age of Humans” / « Human Epoch », is most often
considered to date back to the Industrial Revolution in the late
eighteenth century.
20. Why do temperatures continue to rise even if emissions decrease?
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Change in surface temperature (as compared to 1850-1900)
Very high
High
Median
Low
Very low
00
Greenhouse gas emissions
CO2 Emissions (Gt/year)
21. Why do temperatures continue to rise even if emissions decrease?
The key driver of increase in temperature is the quantity of CO2 in the
atmosphere (CO2 concentration).
CO2 remains in the atmosphere for several centuries (metaphor of the
bathtub).
Consequences:
1. Decreasing anthropic (human) CO2 emissions does not lead to a
decrease in average temperatures as long as we continue to emit. It
only slowers the increase (less CO2 added, but CO2 concentration in
atmosphere continues to increase).
2. We are only negociating the intensity and rapidity of temperature
increase in the coming decades.
3. Decreasing average temperatures requires negative anthropic
emissions (i.e. more removals than emissions). -> commitments and
goals about « net zero carbon emissions » and « carbon neutrality »
22. IPCC scenarios – towards 2100
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Table: Average temperature change over the periods 2021-2040, 2041-2060 and 2081-2100
compared to 1850 (reminder: +0.9 in 2000, and +1.1 today), according to the 5 IPCC scenarios
(source: Climate Change 2021, Physical Science Basis - IPCC 2021)
Decarbonation of
economies as a
global priority
(cooperation)
Business as
usual, Fossil fuel
devt
23. Are we on track?
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« the international community is falling far short
of the Paris goals, with no credible pathway
to 1.5°C in place. Only an urgent system-wide
transformation can avoid climate disaster. »
25. Overall…
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U.N. Secretary-General Antonio Guterres
said the report by the Intergovernmental
Panel on Climate Change revealed "a
litany of broken climate promises" by
governments and corporations, accusing
them of stoking global warming by
clinging to harmful fossil fuels.
"It is a file of shame, cataloguing the
empty pledges that put us firmly on track
towards an unlivable world," he said.
27. +1.1 degrees, so what?
"What we're seeing are the effects of climate change. Sometimes,
it's said that Australia is the canary in the coal mine with the effects
of climate change being seen here most severely and earliest…
We're probably looking at what climate change may look like for
other parts of the world in the first stages in Australia at the
moment » (Chris Dickman)
Photo: Saeed Khan Agence France-Presse
30. +1.1 degrés, so what?
a mosque in Jakarta, 1st of August, 2019. Photo A. Fatma
Putra. Sopa Images. Sipa
31. +1.1 degrés, so what?
The Guardian, 22/08/22
Le Monde, 10/08/2022
The Guardian, 27/07/22
The Guardian, 12/08/22
32. What does +4 degrees mean for our
societies and businesses?
« A 2°C World Might Be
Insurable, A 4°C World
Certainly Would Not Be ».
Henri de Castries, former CEO of
Axa
33. Holocene / what does + 4/5 degrees mean ?
Average
temperature
on Earth
First
human
migration
out of
Africa
Beginning of
agriculture
Large
human
civilizations
Aborigines
arrive in
Australia
Thousands of years before our epoch
0
- 4/5 degrees
34. Two troublesome factors: the scale and speed of current evolutions
Europe, 20 000 years ago.
1 to 2 kilometers of ice in Northern Europe
+5°C
Europe, today
?!
In 200 years
+5°C
Source : Carbone 4
In 20 000 years
+2°C, +5°C.. Which difference? A major one !
35. Which age will you be?
2020 2030
50 years 60 years
2040
40 years 50 years 60 years
2050
1970
1980
1990
20 years 30 years 40 years 50 years
2000
30 years 40 years 50 years 60 years
37. Our economic institutions were designed in an « empty » world
« Natural resources are infinite and inexhaustible,
because, without this property, we would not get them for
free. As they cannot be multiplied, renewed nor
exhausted, they are not an issue for economics »
Jean-Baptiste Say (1767-1832)
Treaty of political economy (1804)
38. The « linear » economy
Take
Raw
materials
Production
/ transport
Distribution Use
Waste &
destruction
(if possible)
Make Dispose
'cradle to grave' manufacturing model,
dating from the Industrial Revolution
39. Number of smartphones sold to end users
worldwide from 2007 to 2020 (in million units)
2011
2010 2017
Linear economy & and the great acceleration
44. ADAPTATION
MITIGATION
Two concepts you must remember
Learning to do better with less
Reducing impacts / sufficiency
Avoiding the unmanageable
Adapting companies to climate change / biodiversity /
resource scarcity
Crisis management / management in degraded situations
Managing the unavoidable
Key challenge: aligning mitigation and
adaptation practices, avoiding maladapation
45. An example of maladaptation: air conditionning is making you
cooler, and the world warmer
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« Maladaptation is a result of an
intentional adaptation policy or measure
directly increasing vulnerability for the
targeted and/or external actor(s), and/or
eroding preconditions for sustainable
development ».
Juholaa, Glass et al. (2016)
46. Groupwork:
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Can you identify other examples of mal-
adaptation?
🧐
In such cases, how does adaptation endangers the fight
against climate change or creates other vulnerabilities?
Better solutions?
48. Conclusion
• The story of capitalism, corporations and anthropocene are deeply intertwined
• The anthropocene constitutes a new ‘ecological regime’ where humans have a
dominant impact on ecosystem dynamics
• The challenge of sustainability: learning to combine:
• mitigation of impacts (externalities) on nature and society to keep within
planetary boundaries
• And adaptation (while avoiding maladaptation)
• A fundamental (and urgent) transformation of our economic and managerial
institutions
