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1. Workforce Planning and
Succession Management
Truth & Myth
Presented by Andrew Marty
Managing Director
SACS Consulting

2. Objectives
• To consider why the boom in workforce planning
and succession management has happened
• To review current approaches
• To review the evidence of what works
• To consider an optimum approach based on
this.

3. A Brief History
• Myth no 1 – “It’s new”
• Forms of WFP have been used by the military
as far back as the Napoleonic era
• Henry Ford and turnover of 150%
• In the US in excess of 80% of fortune 500
companies had WFP in the ’50s. Now it is less
than 40%. Why?

4. Why the decline in WFP?
• Different careers – less predictable
• Different world – more changeable
• The WFPs did not work – “spurious accuracy”
• Also, talent became more freely available as
traditional career structures weakened.

5. Why is it rising again?

6. 0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
160000
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
NET ANNUAL GROWTH IN WORKFORCE POPULATION
AUSTRALIA2005 TO 2060 – Courtesy Hadley Sides,
Stonnington City Council

7. The Rise of WFP
• Necessity is once more the mother of invention
• Newer approaches are more flexible and less
mechanistic
• Better results.

8. Current Approaches to WFP
• Huge diversity in approaches and models
• Strategic to a greater or lesser degree
• Complicated WFP models, often circular
• Long term planning – up to 10 years
• Very specific succession planning design.

9. Some workforce planning models

10. A DSTO Model

11. WA Government Model
GAP
ANALYSIS
EVALUATION
ASSUMPTIONS
FEEDBACK
FORECASTING
PLANNING
IMPLEMENTING
• Social
• Technical
• Economic
• Public Sector
employment
Demographic Data
• Occupation
• Salary, etc
Trend Data
• Staff Movement
• Leave Usage
• Salary Profile, etc
• Replacement
Staff
• Contingent
Workforce
ORGANISATION DIRECTION ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS INTERNAL LABOUR EXTERNAL LABOUR
SUPPLYSCENARIO BUILDING
• Internal staff
movements
• Recruitment &
selection
• Working conditions
• Leave mgt
• Training &
development
• Promotion / transfer
• Succession
planning
• Career planning
• Budgets
• Remuneration
• Workplace/Ent
Agreements
• Incentives &
allowances
• Technology
upgrades
• Accommodation
• Fleet vehicles
HUMAN RESOURCES STAFF DEVELOPMENT FINANCE/BUDGETS LOGISTICAL
ANALYSING
• Strategic planning
• Budget forecasts
• New equipment
• Inflows and outflows
• Working practices
• Workforce culture
• Reward system
STRATEGIC, PROCESS & OPERATIONAL CHANGES
DEMAND
EVALUATION
ASSUMPTIONS
FEEDBACK
FORECASTING
PLANNING
IMPLEMENTING
• Social
• Technical
• Economic
• Public Sector
employment
Demographic Data
• Occupation
• Salary, etc
Trend Data
• Staff Movement
• Leave Usage
• Salary Profile, etc
• Replacement
Staff
• Contingent
Workforce
ORGANISATION DIRECTION ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS INTERNAL LABOUR EXTERNAL LABOUR
SUPPLYSCENARIO BUILDING
• Internal staff
movements
• Recruitment &
selection
• Working conditions
• Leave mgt
• Training &
development
• Promotion / transfer
• Succession
planning
• Career planning
• Budgets
• Remuneration
• Workplace/Ent
Agreements
• Incentives &
allowances
• Technology
upgrades
• Accommodation
• Fleet vehicles
HUMAN RESOURCES STAFF DEVELOPMENT FINANCE/BUDGETS LOGISTICAL
ANALYSING
• Strategic planning
• Budget forecasts
• New equipment
• Inflows and outflows
• Working practices
• Workforce culture
• Reward system
STRATEGIC, PROCESS & OPERATIONAL CHANGES
DEMAND
ASSUMPTIONS
FEEDBACK
FORECASTINGFORECASTING
PLANNINGPLANNING
IMPLEMENTINGIMPLEMENTING
• Social
• Technical
• Economic
• Public Sector
employment
Demographic Data
• Occupation
• Salary, etc
Trend Data
• Staff Movement
• Leave Usage
• Salary Profile, etc
• Replacement
Staff
• Contingent
Workforce
ORGANISATION DIRECTION ENVIRONMENTAL FACTORS INTERNAL LABOUR EXTERNAL LABOUR
SUPPLYSCENARIO BUILDING
• Internal staff
movements
• Recruitment &
selection
• Working conditions
• Leave mgt
• Training &
development
• Promotion / transfer
• Succession
planning
• Career planning
• Budgets
• Remuneration
• Workplace/Ent
Agreements
• Incentives &
allowances
• Technology
upgrades
• Accommodation
• Fleet vehicles
HUMAN RESOURCES STAFF DEVELOPMENT FINANCE/BUDGETS LOGISTICAL
ANALYSINGANALYSING
• Strategic planning
• Budget forecasts
• New equipment
• Inflows and outflows
• Working practices
• Workforce culture
• Reward system
STRATEGIC, PROCESS & OPERATIONAL CHANGES
DEMAND

12. Federal Government Model

13. Government of California

14. What Should a Workforce
Planning Model be?
• As simple as possible – WFP is a big project,
and clarity for all stakeholders is critical
• Should make it clear what the components are
and what needs to be done at all stages
• Should guide action
• Should be a storehouse for an organisation’s
intellectual capital on workforce matters.

15. Strategy
• The value you get out of WFP will be
determined by the clarity of your strategy
• Many organisations think they have a strategy,
but what they have is a vision, or tactics
• True strategy says “In 3 years we are going to
be in the following businesses so we will need
to be the following size and shape”
• WFP puts the acid on strategy!

16. Here is our contribution

17. SACS Model
NB: default state is flatline, in absence of confident forecasts
The Environment The Environment
Time Horizon – eg 2 years
ENABLERS – Process and Culture (including Leadership)
Current
State
Future
StatePeople
Plan 1
People
Plan 2

18. SACS Model
The Environment
Current
State

19. Current State and Environment
• Where are you now?
– Demographics – ageing, gender, diversity, etc
– Modelling staff retention and turnover
– Location issues
– Talent gaps and hard to resource areas
• Benchmarking on all of the above and
consideration of environmental factors –
competition, numbers of graduates, etc
• A fascinating exercise and one which yields
immediate value.

20. SACS Model
The Environment The Environment
ENABLERS – Process and Culture (including Leadership)
Current
State

21. Enablers
• These are the levers we use to develop our
talent
– Leadership
– Recruitment
– Talent management – training, coaching,
induction, etc
– Succession management
• The “build or buy” question in developing the
workforce of the future.

22. Myth No. 2
• “It’s the processes that matter.”
• Many organisations act that way, but processes
in the end simply enable good leadership.
Positive, supportive, engaging leadership is
universally being demonstrated by research to
be the driver of workplace health
• Good leadership with bad process is way better
than bad leadership with even perfect process
• Get your leadership culture right first.

23. The foundations of cultural vitality.
Esteem – valuing, recognising, supporting
Alignment – outcomes focus, cascading of
strategic intent, clarity about acceptable
behaviours, performance development
Belonging – team inclusion and cohesion,
collaborative decision making, justice
Growth – job satisfaction, learning by
doing, coaching
“New Brain” emotional tone
Optimism, positivity, future focus

24. SACS Model
The Environment The Environment
Time Horizon – eg 2 years
ENABLERS – Process and Culture (including Leadership)
Current
State

25. Determine a Time Horizon
• Naturally, coincide with the corporate plan
• Myth no 3 – “Go Long!”
• Recent research shows that the organisational
forecasts are wrong by 30% on average
(Cappelli, 2008)
• If we invest effort in planning beyond 3, or a
maximum of 4 years, we are kidding ourselves
• Incidentally, the same goes for much general
strategy development
• We suggest two years with a rolling reforecast.

26. SACS Model
The Environment The Environment
Time Horizon – eg 2 years
ENABLERS – Process and Culture (including Leadership)
Current
State
Future
State

27. Define the Future State
• Realistic projections based on current state and
forecasts of future needs. What businesses are
we going to be in, and how will we deliver them?
• The shorter the time frame the greater the
confidence
• Consider projections about the environment –
demographic forecasts, competitor activity,
regulatory frameworks, government policy,
projected numbers of graduates, etc.

28. SACS Model
NB: default state is flatline, in absence of confident forecasts
The Environment The Environment
Time Horizon – eg 2 years
ENABLERS – Process and Culture (including Leadership)
Current
State
Future
StatePeople
Plan 1
People
Plan 2

29. Annual People Plans
• Each year of the life of the WFP will be enacted
through tactical people plans
• Clear activities and objectives, as well as
measures to assess their success
– Specific
– Measurable
– Achievable
– Realistic
– Trackable

30. Flatline Forecasting
• Where strategy is deficient in a particular area,
we make the forecast a flatline, based on
previous trends
• Not as valuable, but can still be worthwhile.
Shows how difficult it can be just to stand still!

31. Finally,
• Doesn’t need to be circular – base it on a rolling
reforecast, annually. The model is therefore
constantly correcting and moving forward
• Can be reset from any point in time – say a
major change in strategy
• It suggests what needs to be done.

32. SACS Model
NB: default state is flatline, in absence of confident forecasts
The Environment The Environment
Time Horizon – eg 2 years
ENABLERS – Process and Culture (including Leadership)
Current
State
Future
StatePeople
Plan 1
People
Plan 2

33. The Succession Challenge
• What about positions which need more than,
say, two years to be resourced?
• What about unique, hard to fill positions?
• Myth no. 4 – “Good businesses must have
targetted succession plans”

34. Traditional Succession Planning
Anointed
Anointed
Partly
anointed
Somewhat
anointed
Ignored
Big Boss

35. Doesn’t Work!
• The leadership “pipeline” is actually a sieve
• Like WFP, succession planning which is position
based is doomed to fail
• In both, you need to identify competency
“families” which allow you to achieve your KRAs
• For unique, one-off roles, you will need to
headhunt. The succession effort rarely pays off
for such roles.

36. Competency Families
Business
Development
Key Result Areas
Financial
Analytical
Ability
Policy
Development
Procurement
Bench Strength
Underpinned by characteristics of high performers and
future leaders

37. The Competency Myth
• Many organisations develop competency
matrices based on constructs:
– Professionalism
– Customer service orientation
– Collaborative Leadership, etc
• There is increasing evidence that these, whilst
giving a good feeling, achieve little in terms of
improvement in organisational performance
• Constructs are incredibly hard to get right
• Behaviours work much better.

38. Multiple Performance Dimensions:
Performance in context (Griffin et al., 2007)
Individual Work Role
Behaviours
Proficiency
Fulfils the prescribed or
predictable requirements
of the role
Adaptiveness and
flexibility
Copes with, responds to,
and supports change
Proactiveness
Initiates change, is self-
starting and future-
directed
Individual Task Behaviours
Behaviour contributes to
individual effectiveness
Individual Task Proficiency
e.g. ensures core tasks are
completed properly
Individual Task Adaptiveness
e.g. adjusts to new equipment,
processes, or procedures in
core tasks
Individual Task Proactiveness
e.g. initiates better way of
doing tasks
Team Member Behaviours
Behaviour contributes to
team effectiveness rather
than individual
effectiveness
Team Member Proficiency
e.g. coordinates work with
team members
Team Member Adaptiveness
e.g. responds constructively to
team changes (e.g. new
members)
Team Member Proactiveness
e.g. develops new methods to
help the team perform better
Organisation Member
Behaviours
Behaviour contributes to
organisation effectiveness
rather than individual and
team effectiveness
Organisation Member
Proficiency
e.g. talks about the
organisation in positive ways
Organisation Member
Adaptiveness
e.g. copes with changes in the
way the organisation operates
Organisation Member
Proactiveness
e.g. makes suggestions to
improve the overall efficiency
of the organisation

39. Characteristics of High Performers
& Future Leaders
• Intelligence
– Verbal reasoning
– Numerical reasoning
– Abstract reasoning
• Integrity
– EG Reid Report

40. Characteristics of High Performers
& Future Leaders
• Personality – the HEXACO model is the most
recent and most powerful predictor – particularly
of negative behaviours
– Honesty/Humility - high for all hires
– Emotionality – low for all hires
– eXtraversion – depends on job
– Agreeableness – depends on job
– Conscientiousness – high for all hires
– Openness – depends on job.

41. IDENTIFICATION
OF HIGH
PERFORMERS
-“EXEMPLARS”
AND THEIR
KRAs
HIGH PERFORMANCE
MODEL
Use the psychological tests
and their scale scores which
pick out the high performers.
List the competencies which
all your high performers have
in common. Write
behavioural interview
questions and a simple
scoring system for each.
Behavioural Interviews
What skills, knowledge, values and
attitudes do they have in common?
Psychological testing
What psychological characteristics do
they have in common?
High Performance Modelling

42. Conclusion
• Get your strategy right. You will get greater
benefit from your workforce plan if you can
predict specifically where you are going
• Make it short term, with competency families
identified for the longer term
• Base succession planning on competency
families
• Be very careful about developing competency
constructs – consider using Griffin’s framework
– behaviour based.

43. For further information please contact Andrew
Marty, Managing Director of SACS Consulting
on +613 8622 8508 or
andrewm@sacsconsult.com.au