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Rudra Persaud
India: The Next Great Economic Frontier
Within the last two decades, emerging markets have offered investors hopes of high
returns and accelerated growth, but now, largely due to economic deceleration, they have
become a source of gloom. China’s economy has slowed. “Brazil is mired in stagflation.” Russia
is combatting a recession, battered by Western sanctions and the slump in oil prices; and South
Africa is plagued by their government’s inefficiency and corruption (The Economist). Amid the
disappointment however, is one major emerging market that has the potential to explode and
become the global economy’s next superstar: India.
In order to accomplish this, India must shed its legacy of counter-productive foreign, and
domestic policy. This task falls onto Prime Minister Narendra Modi, who has promised, “to take
a quantum leap” and claims that India’s economic development is “truly unlimited” (Harris).
Although some economists and policy makers are skeptical about the direction of Prime Minister
Modi’s new policy initiatives, I believe that both short and long-term investors should consider
India to be a very lucrative opportunity.
To prove this point, I have organized my paper into three main sections, all of which
contain subsections. In the first section I provide an account of India’s economic and political
history, specifically, India’s two most important economic periods: the first forty-five years
following its independence in 1947, and the twenty years following its economic liberalization in
1991. In the second section, I will discuss the state of India’s economy currently and examine
Finance Minister Arun Jaitley’s first full budget under the leadership of Prime Minister Narenda
Modi. Finally, I end my paper with a fourth section that analyzes investment opportunities in

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India, highlighting three sectors worthy of consideration by short and long-term investors:
engineering, information technology, and automotive.
India’s Economic History
India’s “economic journey from an impoverished country to an emerging global economy
is an inspiring example for many developing nations.” In order to understand India’s current
economic growth and investment opportunities, it is essential to “shed some light on its political
and economic history” (Gosai).
The First Forty-Five Years
Prime Minister Nehru’s State-Centered Economy. In 1947, India’s emergence as an
independent nation came with a host of problems. A shattered economy, widespread poverty, a
chronic lack of resources and an abysmal rate of literacy were issues that India’s first Prime
Minister, Jawaharlal Nehru, and his cabinet needed to combat in order to successively transform
India into a secular, democratic nation. With no time to waste, Prime Minister Nehru began
implementing India’s new state-centered economic policy, which looked to tackle both, India’s
immense poverty, as well as the country’s stagnant economy (Sibal). India’s new economy
would be comprised of two distinct segments: private and public. The private sector owned and
operated “small to medium size businesses and industries protected by the government.” The
government, or public sector, was in charge of most consumer services, including: transportation
such as airlines and railroads; communication services such as postal, telephone and telegraph;
radio and television broadcasting; and social services such as education and health care (Gosai).
In his article, “History of Economic Growth in India,” author Dashyant Gosai, explains that
Prime Minister Nehru advocated for state-provided services because, at the time, only the
government, through its ability to reduce labor costs, was able to offer them at a reasonable

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price. While many have argued otherwise, Prime Minister Nehru and his cabinet viewed their
policy of a state-centered economy as a success. Many even considered India’s mixed economic
approach as a solution to the challenges faced by China’s communist developmental model.
India’s mixed approach, as apposed to China’s communist developmental approach, offered the
global south a non-capitalist, yet, non-communist pathway towards development and social
democracy (Powell). As we know today, the coexistence between the private sector and a
government run public sector is very difficult to maintain, and in retrospect, Prime Minister
Nehru most likely had better economic policies that he could have implemented. Yet, throughout
his time in office, India’s economy under Nehru sustained relatively stable economic growth.
However, the years following his death were plagued by partisanship within the Nehru’s own
National Congress Party. After his passing in 1964 it became evident that “the underlying
political consensus that [once] held the Congress Party together began" to give way (Sibal). The
inability of India’s dominant political party to build consensus would continue under the
leadership of Prime Minister Nehru’s daughter: Indira Gandhi.
The Reign(s) and Assassination of Indira Gandhi. In 1966, during her first stint as
Prime Minister (1966-1977), Indira Gandhi worked vigorously to expand state powers by
controlling even larger portions of India’s economy. In his article, “The Untold Story of India’s
Economy,” economist David Rajeev Sibal explains:
[Gandhi] constrained domestic businesses with the Monopolies and Restrictive
Trade Practices Act of 1969, nationalized banking with the Banking Companies
Act of 1969, controlled productivity through the Industrial Licensing Acts of 1970
and 1973 and kept out foreign investment with the Foreign Exchange Regulation
Act of 1973.

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While Prime Minister Gandhi made great strides towards governmental control over India’s
economy, the political and civil unrest that ensued from 1973-1975 proved to be too large a
threat towards the political and economic future of India. In 1975, Gandhi declared a “state of
emergency” that would last for two years; thus, halting the creation of any new economic,
foreign or domestic policy. The state of emergency “bestowed upon the prime minister the
authority to rule by decree, allowing elections to be suspended and civil liberties to be curbed”
(Palmer). In his journal, “India in 1975: The Democracy in Eclipse,” author Norman D. Palmer,
describes this period of unrest as “India’s greatest political crisis since [its] independence” in
1947. During this time, Gandhi arrested opposition leaders, imposed censorship on the press, and
suspended elections (Gosai). It’s clear that Gandhi’s focus wasn’t on the Indian economy; rather,
her focus was set on ways in which she could remain in power, and that, argues David Sibal,
“cost [India] dearly.” Between 1965 and 1981, the growth of the Indian economy was not only
dismal; it was also characterized by extreme volatility (see “Phase II” of table 1).
Table 1
Indian Economic Growth in Four Phases
In 1977,
due to tremendous
national, and

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international pressure, Gandhi finally declared a general election. Although she would go on to
lose the election, Gandhi and the Congress Party would return to power in 1980. Gandhi won the
election mainly because the “competing political parties were unable to build a majority
consensus in Parliament.” This time, Gandhi understood that a different economic model was
needed. Private business interests were “permitted a more active voice” in the economic
development of India (Sibal); this was especially true after Gandhi’s assassination in 1984, when
her son, Rajiv Gandhi, succeeded her as Prime Minister.
India’s Path to a Free Market
Economic Policy and Assassination of Rajiv Gandhi. During his tenure as Prime
Minister (1984-1989), Rajiv Gandhi attempted to modernize India’s outdated economic policy.
For instance, “he increased government support for science and technology and associated
industries, reduced import quotas, taxes and tariffs on technology-based industries”, especially
computers, airlines, defense and telecommunications. Under Prime Minister Gandhi, India’s
economy continued to revolve around the state, however, R. Gandhi took measures that . . .
significantly reduce the Licence Raj,” which allowed businesses “to purchase capital, consumer
goods and import without ” government restriction (Aghion, Burgess, Redding & Zilbotti 2008).
Although this was a step in the right direction, the Indian government was still managing the
state’s “capital flows and business in certain sectors” (Sibal). Before his assassination on May
21, 1991, two different Prime Ministers had already succeeded R. Gandhi: V.P. Singh and
Chandra Shekhar, both of whom served for less than a year. However, the month immediately
after R. Gandhi was assassinated, then Prime Minister, Pamulaparti Venkata Narasimha Rao and
then Finance Minister Manmohan Singh, oversaw the greatest economic transformation since
India’s independence.

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The Economic Liberalization of India. During the early 1990’s, the cost of India’s
consistent state intervention proved to be insurmountable, and “India, like many . . . developing
[countries], succumbed to a fiscally induced debt crisis” (Sibal). With its foreign exchange
reserves at a mere $500 million, India barely had enough reserves to supply three weeks worth of
imports (Rediff). Prime Minister Rao was forced to turn to the World Bank and the International
Monetary Fund (IMF) for financial assistance. The IMF agreed to assist India, but only in
exchange for major economic reforms. With India’s reserves quickly depleting and their
government on the brink of bankruptcy, Prime Minister Rao had no choice but to accept the deal
and, with the help of then Finance Minister Manmohan Singh, implement the IMF’s prescribed
policies in order to save the country from economic collapse.
On July 24th
, 1991, Finance Minister Singh, presented India’s Parliament with the
landmark budget that would open India’s economy to trade and foreign investment, provide
progressively lowered tariffs, duties and taxes, discourage state monopolies, while encouraging
the growth of private sector enterprises and competition, and embraces globalization.
Additionally, Prime Minister Rao’s accelerated dismantling of the Licence Raj, helped reverse
the socialist policies of the Indira Gandhi government that had previously plagued the country’s
economy, and within the last two decades following the dismantling, India has experienced much
more rapid growth, as a well as an overall decline in poverty (The Economist). Since it’s
Economic Liberalization, foreign investment in India has skyrocketed. This is largely due in part
to the economic policies implemented under Prime Minister Rao, and advanced by his
successors, Prime Minister Vajpayee and Prime Minister Singh.
Post-Liberalized Growth. Since its Liberalization in 1991, India has experienced some
incredible growth. From 1991-2011, India's gross domestic product has quadruple and its exports

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from increased $18 billion to $178 billion. Also, with per capita income increasing from 8,091
rupees in 1991 to 41,129 rupees in 2011, India’s poverty declined from 65% to 35%. The most
telling figure however has been India’s explosive foreign direct investment (FDI) growth. In
1990-91 when Prime Minister Rao assumed office, FDI was approximately $0.13 billion,
compared to $30.3 billion in 2010-11. Also, during this same time frame, India’s foreign
exchange reserves in jumped from $5.8 billion to $274 billion (Economic Times), illustrating
both, the interest and trust the Indian market has inspired amongst foreign investors. In fact,
consulting firm A.T. Kearney, ranked India 7th
on their Foreign Direct Investment Confidence
Index in 2014 (see fig. 1). Although India’s transformation from a struggling newly independent
nation into a dominant emerging market has been impressive, the country still has ways to go in
order to completely relinquish itself from its past policy failures. Now that we have gained a
historical context about its economic history, let us now analyze where India’s economy is going.
Fig. 1 A.T. Kearney Foreign Confidence Index Top 12 Rankings
India’s Economy Today
Currently, India’s economy is ranked fourth in terms of GDP at purchasing power parity
with an estimated real growth rate of around 5.6 percent (CIA). According to IMF director

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Christine Lagard, “[India’s] economy is expected to grow 7.5% in the upcoming 2015-2016
fiscal year, . . . up from 7.2% in the current fiscal year” (Rooney). In a recent survey, the IMF
states that India is a “bright spot in the global landscape, becoming one of the fastest-growing
big emerging market economies in the world.”
Long-Term Growth Drivers.
India’s Youth, Labor Force and Middle Class. The Indian economy maintains a fine
balance between state intervention and free market principles. In the past two decades, however,
the state has become less involved due to the increase in liberalization reforms. Indian companies
have thrived during its liberalization era, demonstrating an entrepreneurial spirit within its
citizens. More than half of its 1.25 billion population is under twenty-five and “by 2020, India
will have the world’s youngest population, with a median age of twenty-nine years, compared
with a median age of thirty-seven in China” (Picardo). In addition to its young citizenry, India’s
labor force of 502.2 million people is the second largest world (CIA), with an estimated 12
million people entering the workforce every year (Rooney). The country’s unemployment rate
has remained low, approximately 3.6 percent in 2014 (The World Bank), which has led to a
growing Indian middle class. Consisting of 250 million people, India’s middle class has become
one of the largest consumer markets in the world and this “educated, tech-savvy and relatively
affluent group is expected to continue its rapid growth in the years ahead” (Pirado).
Indian Democracy. Throughout its history, many economists have argued that India’s
governance of its markets has “remained one of the biggest potential barriers to future success”
(Sibal). Although this may be true, India’s “vibrant” and “functioning” democracy has given its
people real influence over economic policy. For example, India’s 2014 election had a voter
turnout of over 540 million people, or 66.4 percent of those eligible, making it the highest ever in

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the history of India general elections (Timmons). Indian citizens “regularly exercise [they’re]
constitutional right to kick out non-performing” (Pirado) and corrupt governments. In 2014,
Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP) captured 31% of the popular vote and 282
(51.9%) of all seats forming the largest majority government since the 1984 elections (Dhume).
Following his historic victory in May 2014, Prime Minister Modi’s first real test would come on
February 28th
2015, where Finance Minister Arun Jaitley unveiled the first full budget of India’s
new government.
Union Budget 2015-2016
Since being elected as Prime Minister, Narendra Modi has promised reforms that would
allow India’s economy to “take a quantum leap” forward. In February 2015, Finance Minister
Arun Jaitley laid forth a budget that aimed towards higher growth, an increase in public
investment and the cultivation better business environment. Depending on the source, the
reviews of the budget have varied greatly. Some analysts have applauded the budget, claiming
that no matter what, “Expectations for Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s first full-year
budget were always going to be too extravagant to satisfy” (Nayyar). Others have characterized
the budget as “underwhelming” and more specifically, “a cautious document that aimed more at
avoiding charges of being too pro-business or too pro-welfare rather than making big economic
reforms that many had hoped for” (Lakshmi). While it may have fallen short of “the quantum
leap” Prime Minister Modi had promised, that budget has earned “plaudits for moves to cut
corporate tax and make India more competitive” (Bhat and Daniel).
Increase Infrastructure Investment. In his speech, Finance Minister Jaitley
acknowledged that for about the last four years, a lack of investment has ailed India. In fact, from
2010-2014, India experienced “a dramatic 6 percentage-point drop in investment as a percentage

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of GDP.” To address this issue, Jaitley has postponed his plan of reducing the deficit to 3 percent
of GDP by one year. By doing so, this “will give him an extra 0.3 percent of GDP to spend on
public investment.” Over the next year, the government has promised to boost infrastructure
spending by 700 billion rupees, or $11.3 billion (Riley). In addition, Jaitley has “also set up an
off-budget National Infrastructure Investment Fund with a seed grant of $3.3 billion from the
government.” Hopefully this increase in infrastructure spending will also help boost investment
in manufacturing,“ a sector badly constrained by a lack of good roads, reliable power and
efficient ports” (Nayyar).
Addressing Taxes. Perhaps the most important reform in Jaitley’s budget was his plan to
reduce the corporate tax rate from 30% to 25%. Although the reduction is set to take place over
four years, this measure will definitely “make India more competitive against its international
rivals.” Jaitley also proposed “widely anticipated” goods and services tax that would be
implemented by April 1, 2016. Currently, “India’s states have a myriad of different taxes, and
trading between them is a nightmare.” A tax on goods and services would make interstate trade
more efficient and standardize costs. In regards to taxes, Mr. Jaitley has added a 2 percent
surcharge on citizens making over 10 million rupees ($160,000), and will start enforcing new
penalties on those “moving money offshore or through the black market” (Riley). By going after
“tax cheats”, Prime Minister Modi hopes to increase the number of citizens that pay income
taxes. According to CNN Money, “Only around 35 million Indians pay income taxes, out of a
working age population of nearly 800 million.”
Public Opinion and Critiques. Although relatively unexciting, the budget put forth by
Finance Minister Jaitley is definitely a step in the right direction towards “transform[ing] India's
economy into a global powerhouse” (Harris). Furthermore, the reforms proposed have remained

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in line with Prime Minister Modi’s promises of increasing foreign investment, closing India’s
inequality gap, and fighting of inflation, which is a key obstacle to growth. However, many of
the its critics claim that the budget “lacks a more sweeping vision for pro-market reforms: a
selloff of state enterprises, changes to land and labor laws, an end to wasteful subsidies.” While
this is true, it’s important to note that Prime Minister Modi “has already had great difficulty
pushing more ambitious reforms through the upper house of Parliament,” where he lacks a
majority (Nayyar). The budget Prime Minister Modi and Finance Minister Jaitley have put forth
is extremely popular among the Indian people. As long as they can, at the very least, deliver on
the reforms previously discussed, India should see sustainable long-term economic growth.
What Else Can Be Done?
A recent survey by the IMF has found, “Within the next 15 years, India will have the
largest, and among the youngest, workforces in the world, and will need to create jobs for the
roughly one hundred million young Indians who will enter the job market in the coming decade.”
While Prime Minister Modi and his cabinet have began laying the groundwork, they must offer a
few more policy initiatives in order to support their economy’s ever-growing labor force. First,
he must make “labor markets more flexible, to encourage young job-seekers and boost presently
low female labor force participation” (IMF). Among the BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China and
South Africa) “which are comparable emerging economies, India has the lowest female
participation rate, with only 29% of women over the age of 15 working” (see fig. 2)
(Chakrabarti). According to India’s Ministry of Home Affairs, females account for 48%, or 497
million, of India’s population.

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Fig. 2 World Bank’s Women’s Workforce Participation Rates 2009-2013
Additionally, the government must continue towards “improving education to meet rising
shortages of skilled labor” (IMF). For example, India’s world class IT-services industry remains
“too skill-intensive and too small to absorb the 90m-115m often ill-educated youngsters entering
the job market in the next decade” (The Economist). Although India’s education system has been
satisfactory, the country’s immense poverty has been a large reason the amount of young adults
aren’t going to college. According to 2010 data from the United Nations Development
Programme, “an estimated 29.8% of Indians live below the country’s national poverty line. India
is home to the largest number of poor with one-third of the world’s extreme poor living here”
(see fig. 3).
Fig. 3 Top 10 Countries with Largest Share of
Global Poor (2010)

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In order for Prime Minister Modi to lift the country up from poverty, he should continue
on his current path towards increasing foreign investment in order to bring more people into the
India’s growing middle class. This is good news for investors as the new government under
Modi has entrance into the Indian markets a lot easier.
Investment Opportunities in India
Following Prime Minister Modi’s first budget, foreign investor interest has been
exceedingly growing. Though investing in India has become somewhat easier, it does take “a
certain degree of astuteness” as its market is still very volatile (Arora). Three sectors that could
have positive outlook are India’s engineering, information technology (IT), and automotive
sectors. With high growth potential in these areas, investors around the world are presented with
an extremely lucrative opportunity.
Engineering
Most, if not all, major industries need engineers to deliver their services and produce
their products. India’s engineering sector has remained a good source of potential business and
“has played a crucial role in boosting the economy and supporting the growth of other key
sectors of the economy” (Springfield). Fortunately, due to this wide spread need of engineers,
there are a plethora of options for investors to make money.
As previously stated, the “Union Budget 2014-15 has allocated funds for several
infrastructure projects, which are expected to help boost, the engineering sector” (India Brand
Equity Foundation). Small Indian infrastructure firm IRB Infrastructure Developers is expected
to see a number of new projects and has raised enough capital to do so. While this may be the
case, “hopes of increased public spending under the government of Prime Minister Narendra
Modi have yet to materialize given the focus on reducing its fiscal deficit” (CNBC). Investors

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could place their money in numerous infrastructure companies India including IRB, through
India’s stock market: the BSE SENSEX.
India’s engineering sector has successfully translated into a thriving capital goods and
service market “catering to the needs of steel plants, power plants, cement, petrochemical units
as well as mining.” Also, “the industry can also look forward to deriving revenues from newer
services and from newer geographies with Big Data, Cloud, M2M and Internet of Things
becoming a reality” (Springfield).
Information Technology Sector
Over the past 30 years, India has developed a world-class IT infrastructure “based on the
development of sophisticated knowledge base and competence of specially trained
professionals.” In her article, “Indian Economy Growth Sectors and Significant Opportunities,”
Cary Springfield describes India’s IT sector as an,
Industry [that] constitutes . . . export driven IT services sector and business
process outsourcing. The IT and ITeS companies contribute substantially to
Indian GDP growth. It has been the prime mover of the services sector in India,
which in turn contributes to the extent of almost 60% of the GDP. The city of
Bangalore (now called Bengaluru) is the IT capital of India. The industry
accounts for almost 25% of the total exports from India. It has grown at an
exponential velocity and has led to accelerated development of metropolitan cities
spurring the growth of other sectors. This has continued to be the most preferred
sector of global investors.
Additionally, India has become the “world's largest sourcing destination for the information
technology (IT) industry, accounting for approximately 52 per cent of the US$ 124-130 billion

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market” (see fig. 4). This is largely due to India’s ability to maintain it’s cost competiveness
within the industry, providing IT services that are “approximately 3-4 times cheaper than the
US” (India Brand Equity Foundation).
Fig. 4 Market Size of IT Industry in India
Today, there is a wide array of Indian IT stocks that are being traded in New York,
including Infosys, Wipro, Cognizant Technology, and iGATE—all of which have seen slow but
steady increase in stock prices over the past year. Furthermore, more risk-averse investors may
consider investing in ETFs such as iPath MSCI India Index ETN or WisdomTree India Earnings
Fund. While these ETF’s may not experience high short-term profits, they are a great option for
long-term investors who intend to hold onto them for a considerable amount of time.
Automotive Industry
Recently hailed as “The New Detroit,” Chennai, India has become home to carmakers
and suppliers such as, Ford, Hyundai, BMW, Daimler, Renault, and Nissan. The Wall Street
Journal states that these companies “are spending billions of dollars to make Chennai one of the
world's biggest hubs of small cars for export as well as for increasingly affluent Indians”
(Bellman). Currently, India’s automobile is one of the largest in the world with an annual
production of 21.48 million vehicles in 2014, and accounts for 22% of the country’s
manufacturing GDP. During the period April 2000 to February 2015 the auto industry has

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attracted FDI worth $12.2 billion, according to the data released by Department of Industrial
Policy and Promotion.
With a continuous increase in FDI, India’s automotive sector has become one of the most
competitive in the world, because of this; there are many opportunities that investors could
capitalize on. For example, India’s largest car manufacturer and NYSE traded company, Tata
Motors, has been implementing measures to “strengthen its presence in the Asia-Pacific region”
(India Brand Equity Foundation). Henry To of Market Watch explains:
Tata will gain Indian market share as the economy speeds up. Over the past five
years, Tata’s market share declined from 26% to 17% as Indians bought more
motorcycles (a market that Tata does not compete in) due to a weak economy and
the lack of available credit for car buyers. We expect Tata’s market share to rise
to 20% next year as more credit becomes available for car buyers.
As Tata Motors is still experiencing growth in India, most analysts recommend a buy-and-hold
approach to the stock. Making it a very attractive investment for a wide variety of portfolios.
Conclusion
After a careful examination of its economic history, current policies, and investment
opportunities, I can safely say that the long-term outlook of India’s market is extremely bright.
The country has moved further away from its socialist policies enacted during its first 45 years as
a country, and is now moving towards a cultivating an open, global economy. India’s “take off”
however, is reliant upon Prime Minister Modi’s original promise of a “quantum leap” from
India’s outdated and bureaucratic policy. Fortunately, Prime Minister Modi has remained
dedicated to the growth of India’s economy—which he has demonstrated through his first
budget—as well as increasing foreign direct investment. With the economic outlook for other

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emerging markets such as China, Brazil, South Africa, and Russia largely negative, India should
be viewed as a profitable opportunity for a large variety of investors.

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