BMI View: Morocco's beef industry is already a major importer of both breeding heifers and veal calves. Although the country imports around 30,000 head of cattle annually - mostly from France, Holland and Germany - the majority of these are used for breeding dairy stock. However, following the recent granting of modest trading quotas to the EU and the US, Morocco looks set to increase the volume of beef it currently imports. For the EU, an annual import quota of 4,000 tonnes is envisaged in the provisions of the association agreement signed between Morocco and the EU. Until recently, EU beef has been banned because of concerns about BSE. However, in recent months, Morocco has moved to sign new certification agreements with several countries, including France. In July, it was reported that, after almost a decade and a half, Morocco had reopened its market to beef and live cattle imports from Ireland. Other sectors set to benefit from new preferential import tariffs include certain types of processed beef. In 2011, BMI predicts that beef consumption in Morocco will rise by 5.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) to reach 210,200 tonnes. Key Industry Forecasts - Grains Production Forecasts, 2009-2014: Wheat: 46%; Barley: 142% - benefiting from improved technical and logistical infrastructure which is aimed at mitigating the impact of drought. Barley will also benefit from rising demand for the grain as animal fodder. - Dairy Production Forecast, 2009-2014: Milk: 24%; Cheese: 17% - fuelled by rising consumption demand, especially in the case of higher-value dairy products. Production will also benefit from the adoption of more productive technology and the introduction of higher-yielding, quality producing cows. - Livestock Production Forecast, 2009-2014: Poultry: 46%; Beef: 30% - fuelled by strong domestic demand for meat, as well as government support for modernisation and expansion initiatives. - Sugar Production Forecast, 2009-2014: 23% - supported by government initiatives to double production by 2013. Improvements are expected in key areas, including irrigation, improved farming methods and greater access to inputs such as fertilisers. - Morocco Real GDP Growth 2010 Forecast: 3.6% (down from 4.6% in 2009). Key Views - The livestock industry, particularly the poultry and beef sectors, offer considerable opportunities for future investment and development. In recent years, livestock production has already benefited from increased investment as producers look to address growing demand. Demand for poultry has been especially robust, with consumption growth reflecting an expanding population and rising GDP per capita. Meanwhile, emerging fast food outlets are boosting demand for processed meats. Although this is expected to be partially met though imports, domestic production also stands to benefit. In the five years to 2014, we predict that poultry consumption will increase by over 30%, reaching 651,200 tonnes. - The production of value-added dairy products offers the highest growth opportunities for dairy producers. Demand for cheese and butter are both forecast to grow strongly. In 2014, 30,690 tonnes of butter and 44,490 tonnes of cheese are forecast to be consumed by Moroccans following five-year growth of 18% and 17% respectively. - Morocco has one of the highest per capita sugar consumption figures in the world. This has been aided by government subsidies supporting artificially low prices. Although these government subsidies are expected to be gradually lifted sugar consumption is still forecast to grow steadily through to 2014. This will primarily be driven by higher demand for value-added sugar confectionery and soft drinks resulting from higher disposable incomes. This will result in 12.6% growth in sugar consumption between 2009 and 2014.
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Morocco Agribusiness Report Q4 2010
Published on September 2010
Report Summary
BMI View: Morocco's beef industry is already a major importer of both breeding heifers and veal calves. Although the country imports
around 30,000 head of cattle annually - mostly from France, Holland and Germany - the majority of these are used for breeding dairy
stock. However, following the recent granting of modest trading quotas to the EU and the US, Morocco looks set to increase the
volume of beef it currently imports. For the EU, an annual import quota of 4,000 tonnes is envisaged in the provisions of the
association agreement signed between Morocco and the EU. Until recently, EU beef has been banned because of concerns about
BSE. However, in recent months, Morocco has moved to sign new certification agreements with several countries, including France.
In July, it was reported that, after almost a decade and a half, Morocco had reopened its market to beef and live cattle imports from
Ireland. Other sectors set to benefit from new preferential import tariffs include certain types of processed beef. In 2011, BMI predicts
that beef consumption in Morocco will rise by 5.5% year-on-year (y-o-y) to reach 210,200 tonnes.
Key Industry Forecasts
- Grains Production Forecasts, 2009-2014: Wheat: 46%; Barley: 142% - benefiting from improved technical and logistical
infrastructure which is aimed at mitigating the impact of drought. Barley will also benefit from rising demand for the grain as animal
fodder.
- Dairy Production Forecast, 2009-2014: Milk: 24%; Cheese: 17% - fuelled by rising consumption demand, especially in the case of
higher-value dairy products. Production will also benefit from the adoption of more productive technology and the introduction of
higher-yielding, quality producing cows.
- Livestock Production Forecast, 2009-2014: Poultry: 46%; Beef: 30% - fuelled by strong domestic demand for meat, as well as
government support for modernisation and expansion initiatives.
- Sugar Production Forecast, 2009-2014: 23% - supported by government initiatives to double production by 2013. Improvements are
expected in key areas, including irrigation, improved farming methods and greater access to inputs such as fertilisers.
- Morocco Real GDP Growth 2010 Forecast: 3.6% (down from 4.6% in 2009).
Key Views
- The livestock industry, particularly the poultry and beef sectors, offer considerable opportunities for future investment and
development. In recent years, livestock production has already benefited from increased investment as producers look to address
growing demand. Demand for poultry has been especially robust, with consumption growth reflecting an expanding population and
rising GDP per capita. Meanwhile, emerging fast food outlets are boosting demand for processed meats. Although this is expected to
be partially met though imports, domestic production also stands to benefit. In the five years to 2014, we predict that poultry
consumption will increase by over 30%, reaching 651,200 tonnes. - The production of value-added dairy products offers the highest
growth opportunities for dairy producers. Demand for cheese and butter are both forecast to grow strongly. In 2014, 30,690 tonnes of
butter and 44,490 tonnes of cheese are forecast to be consumed by Moroccans following five-year growth of 18% and 17%
respectively.
- Morocco has one of the highest per capita sugar consumption figures in the world. This has been aided by government subsidies
supporting artificially low prices. Although these government subsidies are expected to be gradually lifted sugar consumption is still
forecast to grow steadily through to 2014. This will primarily be driven by higher demand for value-added sugar confectionery and soft
drinks resulting from higher disposable incomes. This will result in 12.6% growth in sugar consumption between 2009 and 2014.
Table of Content
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Macroeconomic Forecast .. 36
Table: Morocco - Economic Activity, 2007-2014.... 37
BMI Forecast Modelling .. 38
How We Generate Our Industry Forecasts .... 38
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